Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 3/29

by: DavidNYC

Tue Mar 29, 2011 at 8:31 AM EDT


Senate:

FL-Sen: I was pretty bored with reading the George LeMieux tea leaves even before his cuppa began brewing, but in case you're not me, the very-short-tenured former senator has been busy attending Lincoln Day dinners and meeting with GOP activists and potential donors. In beltway land, I think this upgrades him from "Lean Run" to "Likely Run."

IN-Sen: Treasurer Richard Mourdock is trying to cause some trouble by saying that Gov. Mitch Daniels encouraged him to run against Dick Lugar in the GOP primary, while a Daniels spokesperson said the governor did no such thing. Daniels previously said he'd vote for Lugar, but didn't exactly endorse him. In other news, Mourdock says he expects to show $125K raised for his race in just a month of campaigning.

Gubernatorial:

KY-Gov: Dem Gov. Steve Beshear just punked his top opposition in this year's gubernatorial race, state Senate President David Williams, hard. Williams had insisted on broad spending cuts (including to education) as part of a Medicaid budget bill; the Democratic-controlled House had no interest in these cuts, but Williams refused any possible compromise. So House Dems (and rebellious House Republicans) passed the Williams bill anyway... I know, hang on ... but full-well expecting Beshear to use his line-item veto to strike the cuts. Then they adjourned, so that the vetoes couldn't get over-ridden. And that's exactly what happened, handing Williams a humiliating defeat.

WI-Gov: I'm wondering which pollster will finally have the courage to report numbers to the THOUSANDTHS of a percent. For now, we'll have to content ourselves with Republican-affiliated pollster We Ask America, which bravely ignores all rules about significant digits and goes all the way to hundredths. They show what other polls are showing: that Scott Walker (like other loser Midwestern Republican governors) has crappy job approval ratings, in this case 43.71 to 54.87. YES DECIMALS.

WV-Gov: The AP has a good run-down on which groups are endorsing whom in the gubernatorial race. On the Dem side, we've noted several of the big union heavy hitters, most of whom are backing state House Speaker Rick Thompson. But some important labor groups are supporting other candidates, like state Sen. Jeff Kessler (Fraternal Order of Police, nurses) and Treasurer John Perdue (teamsters, state troopers). Meanwhile, EMILY's List has endorsed SoS Natalie Tenant. The AP also tried to get candidates to cough up estimates of their fundraising figures (final reports are due Friday), but only acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin responded, saying he'd pulled in about a million bucks.

And speaking of Thompson, he's apparently the first on TV, with an ad touting his hardscrabble upbringing. By the way, SSP Southern Correspondent Trent Thompson notes that the soundtrack you hear is a Baptist hymn, which seems to be popular among Southern Dems (Bobby Bright featured this sort of thing in his advertising). (UPDATE: Actually, it's an actually an old Hank Williams gospel song that's commonly sung in churches.)

House:

CA-36: It looks like we have the final list of candidate filings for the special election. I count ten Democrats, six Republicans, five "nonpartisan," two Libertarians (splitter!), and one "Peace and Freedom" candidate. Also, Howard Dean just endorsed Debra Bowen, which is not too surprising given that his former organization, Democracy for America (run by Howard's brother Jim), also recently endorsed.

CA-51: Apparently there had been vague rumors that Dem Rep. Bob Filner might run for mayor of San Diego... and now apparently Filner just went and announced he was in fact doing so in a totally off-hand remark after a screening of the film Freedom Riders. (Filner himself was one of the Mississippi Freedom Riders.) There's been some dispute over whether Filner's remarks were accurately conveyed, but oddly, Filner's office has refused to either confirm or deny the statement. Note that the race is in June of next year, so I believe Filner gets a free shot while keeping his House seat.

TX-23: Not so fast, Quico! Gary Martin of the Houston Chronicle says that Dems are looking at a few potential challengers to freshman GOPer Quico Canseco, including state Rep. Joaquin Castro and Pete Gallego, and state Sen. Carlos Uresti. Ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez is also apparently weighing a rematch. While the borders of the 23rd will undoubtedly shift somewhat, it probably can't change a whole lot thanks to the VRA (it's 66% Hispanic), so this race could heat up earlier than many others.

WI-01: Food service company owner and Kenosha County Supervisor Rob Zerban is apparently interested in challenging GOP Rep. Paul Ryan. Despite his leadership post and his inflexible conservatism, Ryan sits in a very swingish district that can't really be improved in redistricting for a variety of reasons.

Other Races:

ME-St. Sen.: The Maine SoS has set May 10th as the date for a special election to fill the seat of state Sen. Larry Bliss (D). The reason for Bliss's resignation was certainly unusual and quite poignant: He couldn't find a job in Maine. State legislators work part-time and are only paid $13,000 a year. Bliss said that in the absence of other work, he'd been working as a "full-time" legislator and was really enjoying his job, but he could only find employment in California, prompting his resignation. Of course, this story really isn't that unusual at all, given how many people are still out of work and struggling terribly. Also of note: Bliss was one of only a handful of openly LGBT state legislators nationwide.

PA-AG: Longtime Philly DA Lynne Abraham (D), who left office just last year, said she's considering a run for state AG, despite being 70 years old. (Devoted Swingnuts will recall that ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy is also thinking about a run.) Believe it or not, no Democrat has won the AG's office since it became an elected position in 1980.

Wisconsin Sup. Ct.: Unnamed sources tell the National Review they've seen polling showing the race between incumbent Justice David Prosser and JoAnne Kloppenburg "near even."

Remainders:

Census: Like in NYC, pols in Atlanta are wondering why the new Census numbers for their city are so much lower than expected - 420K vs. a projected 540K. Jacob Alperin-Sherrif (better known to you as DemocraticLuntz) has an excellent post comparing Census projections with actual numbers for cities between 100K and 1 million people. You need to click through for his must-see scatterplot. There is one massive outlier: Atlanta, which is more than six standard deviations away from the mean.

Redistricting Roundup:

Indiana: Despite total Republican control over the process, it's starting to look like the Indiana legislature won't finish their congressional map before the body adjourns on April 29th, largely because of a walk-out by Democrats which ground most work to a halt. But the Democrats just reached what they're saying is a favorable a deal with the Republicans, so perhaps the process will pick up again soon.

Iowa: The state's independent redistricting panel will release the first draft of a new congressional map at 8:15 am local time on Thursday morning.

Virginia: New maps for Congress, the state House and the state Senate could be released by the legislature today. Stay alert!

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/29
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

San Diego
The first round is in June, but the runoff is in November. I guess Filner could technically run for both, but it would probably look bad.

He won't run for both
Juan Vargas, the presumptive heir to the House seat, has run against Filner in the primary before and almost won, there's no question he could do it if Filner was running for both at once.

[ Parent ]
Looks like I will be refreshing SSP a lot today
That news about the Virginia maps is going to distract me all day. Hopefully the legislature will come through, though I'm not excited about seeing how bad the House of Delegates map may look.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

VA State Senate
If my sources are right (and I believe that they are) NLS's head is going to explode. I'm looking forward to reading his meltdown about how Arlington (not sure if he will melt down about Alexandria too) is being split and how young Dems are being ignored.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Unlike NLS
I don't care if these areas are split (just look at the VA State Senate map I drew in my diaries). The important question is, have we truly cemented the Dem advantage in the State Senate for the time being? That's what I care about at this point.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
I concur with you
I could care less if my city of Alexandria is sliced and diced to help sure up and maintain (or expand the majority). Without being a part of the map generating process the Dems would have to be insane to not give George Barker a piece of Alexandria given that he very narrowly won in 2007 and would likely lose under his current district boundaries. Toss in an vacant seat SD-30 in Alexandria and while it isn't right next door you can get creative with how you can put Barker more into Alexandria. Same with Arlington, you have an empty district SD-31 and you can chop up those very liberal precincts and get creative. I am curious to see if what I have heard of a Arlington to Loudoun district is indeed true. That would be ugly and I am very curious to see how that would be drawn!!!

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
I'm in the new SD-31, Arlington-to-Loudoun, and I'm plenty happy with that......
I have no idea if the state Senate map helps us or not.

Ben Tribbett says "no."  I have no idea whether to believe him, because as always he is very smart on knowing voting behavior and geography, but he also has so many axes to grind that they often badly cloud his analysis.  And he definitely had axes to grind in redistricting, as all appearances had him concerned about other things than Dems holding the state Senate.  He actually wants to run for state Senate, but the new boundaries probably are prohibitive for him.  Frankly I'm glad, I don't want to vote for someone who, as Ben does, trashes Democrats who haven't done anything to deserve trashing.

I'm in McLean, and the new beautiful gerrymander makes me happy simply because it's an open seat and now I get to vote in a primary!  I love voting, and I love to take my kids and have them take turns hitting the touchscreen commands.  It's one of the few things I love about Virginia having major elections every year, and now I get two cracks at voting this year.  I'd still rather have state and local stuff in even-numbered years with the federal elections, but elections every year have a fun side.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
31st
Goes from being a 34% McDonnell district to a 44% McDonnell district. If the right Democrat can't win that we have some big issues.

I love how you called out Ben to draw his map that would have been better. Still waiting....

The simple answer is that in order to maintain our Senate majority you have to unpack the overwhelmingly liberal areas; ie Arlington and Alexandria. Given the right candidates, campaigns and years we should be able to hold these seats. Guys (and gal) like George Barker, Dave Mardsen, Janet Howell and Mark Herring have to be plenty pleased with the way they have been protected. In an open seat with the 30th and 31st it was only logical to unpack them as much as possible. Looks like they also protected other seats like Ed Houck and Roscoe Reynolds. Will it work? I don't know but I'd take this map over the previous map which was going to be a loser in just about any circumstance.

I am happy to still be in the 30th though I didn't really fear being redistricted out of the 30th. I am excited for the primary that will be coming up.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


[ Parent ]
Agree w/you on all points. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Agree with all of this.
Any idea where I fall? I looked at the map and couldn't figure it out. I'm in Franklin Farms, precinct 920

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
As best as I can gather...
...your precinct, Lees Corner East, is in SD-32 and HD-67.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Thanks!


22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Pretty sure this is where we'll want to go
http://redistricting.dls.virgi...

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Don't bother
According to NLS, the maps won't be out until 3:30.

[ Parent ]
Yep
Just an hour away now.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Ah hell
NLS reporting that it might be more like 4:30 or 5 pm. Dammit.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Dems' Senate Map is up
but I have no idea how to see it

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Oh Duh
Under the plan details tab, click "View in Map"

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

[ Parent ]
WI-01
Could very easily be made more Democratic (by getting Beloit and possibly Green County added back into the district) or more Republican (by taking in more Milwaukee suburbs).  That doesn't mean that it will be, of course, but it definitely could be.  

WI1
Sensenbrenner's district is R+12 and you'd think he'd be willing to give up a few of his deep-red areas to help Ryan. He probably could still win anything down to R+7 or so without too much trouble.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
It was a bit more democratic
during the 90's. Mark Neumann won an extremely close race in 96 against Lydia Spottswood. But when Ryan beat Spottswood handily it scared off a lot of people. It scared off a lot of potential challengers, his district became more Republicans and he's been facing gadflys and nobodies since.

I don't think his district will become too much more Republican though. Ryan probably isn't going anywhere unless its as a member of a GOP WH and he can hold this seat against all comers.


[ Parent ]
I meant Sensenbrenner
I'm not so sure Ryan is safe in an R+2 seat. People thought the same thing about Jim Oberstar in a D+3 seat. People who aren't used to serious campaigns can get sloppy.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I wasn't necessarily
Responding to you but rather the general topic. Is it out of the realm of possibility Ryan could be beaten, no. And there are even guys who I think could make it a race State Rep. Cory Mason being an obvious one. Having said that, I don't think its happening anytime soon

[ Parent ]
this is all in hindsight as it took me until 2-3 weeks before the ED to realize Oberstar was fucked
The reason Ryan is safer than Oberstar is because Ryan is part of the more prevailing sentiment in Washington and attitude towards politics right now.  Oberstar goofed with HCR* and then voted solidly in-line with the Democrats.  I don't think he changed in voting style, it's just that more opportunities to vote as a liberal came up compared to as a conservative.  The Dems were in charge

*He goofed on HCR because if you are going to play hardball as a negotiator, then you better be prepared to do what you say you will.  Raising a big stink that his district agrees with, having his name tied to unpopular bill, and then deciding to cave at the very end, how weak.  He would have been much better off just voting yes from the get go and never saying a damn thing.  

And losing MN-8, WI-7, and MI-1 altogether should be indicative of something.  Obey retired early on because he had a star opponent, MI-1 because dumb ass Stupak made himself a giant target and was forced to retire (I'm sympathetic about the death threat, don't think I'm not), and Oberstar because he didn't realize what the other two did until it was too late.  However, I'd guess we pick up every single one in 2012 if we keep up our union battles.  This really should be easy; our response to the economy is to spend and create jobs, their's is to attack the part of the middle class still doing well.  Has Obama even mentioned Wisconsin?  He refuses to play the game, but he knows how to, which is so irritating.


[ Parent ]
Obama and Wisconsin
I don't understand what people expect him to do. From what I can tell, he has offered emotional support to the Democrats but little else. I can only think that's appropriate. Getting involved in a more personal way puts his neck on the line for no good reason. If Walker wins, he would then be on the same level as the president, which we don't want.

I think we should simply go after Ryan because we will be heavily invested in Wisconsin for both the senate race and the presidential race. His district is a source of votes, and from what I can tell, we aren't close to being tapped out there. If nothing else, we can use what we gain there to support Obama and Kohl. If we happen to take him down, we get to claim a scalp at the same time. But if we don't, it won't be an embarrassing loss.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I think nationally
There was sentiment for Obama to get involved, but among the union people in Wisconsin that feeling wasn't necessarily present. The President getting involved instantly turns this into a national issue and it becomes Walker vs Obama and the likelihood of this becoming a partisan foodfight increases significantly. I don't think that's optimal terrain for this issue to be played out on. I'm speaking strictly politically, because obviously the ideal outcome would be for the Republicans to ahve lost this battle and this bill never get passed, but strictly politically I don't know how this could've played out any better.

As far as Ryan is concerned, obviously I'd prefer someone else be in that seat. But I'm cognizant of the fact that anyone with any sort of political future is going to be extremely hesitant of jumping in this race. And not to sound flippant about this but Wisconsin Dems have things that are more important and have a much higher chance of success to worry about.


[ Parent ]
I literally cracked up at the Kentucky story
My flatmates probably think I'm crazy now.

I would really like to see Gov. Beshear graduate on up to White House chief of staff or political director after he's done being governor. He has to be one of the most brilliant political chessmasters in the country right now. What an embarrassing ass-whupping for Williams and the Republicans.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


Well-played
The Kentucky Dems seem to be running a good operation at the state level.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
You're not the first person
to comment on how the Kentucky Democrats are doing good, if not great, at the statewide level. Makes you wonder just what the hell Democrats in similar states have to do in order to get their acts together.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It's too bad 2010 was such a bad year for us
There was a very real shot for winning KY-Sen.  (I doubt the Aqua Buddha ad would have happened if a hail mary wasn't needed, which was due to the crap environment and the race no longer being very competitive because of it.)

[ Parent ]
At least KY Dems
didn't lose the State House (they held it 58-42).  If that happened, Williams would be able to make Beshear's time as Governor a living hell.  Not to mention that the State House would be gerrymandered towards Republicans, locking in their majority there.

And yeah, Conway said that it was basically a Hail Mary.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Perhaps McConnell can be beaten in 2014.
I'm not sure who could take him down, but it's probably worth a try. I could be wrong, but my recollection is that Kentucky was more of a secondary effort by the Democrats, at least compared to the seats in Oregon and Colorado. Still, he came close to losing--not that close, but close enough--that we should make it a top priority, if only because there's a dearth of better opportunities that year.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Agree
Outside of retirements it looks like him, Chambliss and... that's it.

[ Parent ]
Chambliss himself could be a retirement
Then again it's probably 50/50 whether Dems would prefer to run against him or someone fresher like Tom Graves or Austin Scott.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Well, Graham and Collins
could lose primaries, no? There's always a chance Cornyn could be vulnerable, too.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Mhm
Collins could also retire (she almost did in 2008 to honor her term limits pledge, but the GOP begged and pleaded for her to stay on).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I can't support Beshear for anything
after giving tax breaks for the creationist theme park.  I can't even count the ways that's f-ed up.  He's an embarassment to anyone who believes in science as well as the separation of church and state.

http://www.npr.org/2011/03/08/...


[ Parent ]
Eh, my issue
is with the subsidies themselves, not the fact that they were used to help build a religious theme park. As long as he's not trying to rewrite science curriculum in the schools (or is he?), I find it hard to get that worked up about it.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I don't know about KY, but in MA they hand out tax breaks like candy
Anyone building anything can get a "job creation" tax break or a property tax exemption by greasing the right palms.  It's fairly embarrassing and in major need of reform.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
You should
read Free Lunch: How the Wealthiest Americans Enrich Themselves at Government Expense and Stick You With The Bill by David Cay Johnston. I haven't read all of it--primarily because I am a huge whore with books and magazines--but there are parts of it that you probably find very stimulating, if not exactly ground breaking.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Great book
The house alarm stuff, for me, was beyond ground breaking and closer epiphanal.  Does he ever point out the irony of house alarms keeping cops off the street, and that just creating the need for more house alarms?  I'm getting in a pissy mood now, ha.

[ Parent ]
Bleh
It'll make some jobs and give us something to make fun of in the future. Besides, it's going to be under so many lawsuits from animal rights groups for it's Noah's Ark world, it'll never get off the ground. Keeping 2 of each animal in the tiny enclosures, will never work. Fun rule, for example, elephants in captivity are to be held in groups of 3 or more. The 1 bull and 1 cow won't work.

So bring on the park, it's gonna be funny.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
I'm not sure I can get on board with the idea that
diverting tax dollars from social important causes to an anti-science theme park during a time of serious economic difficulty can be justified on the grounds that "it's gonna be funny."  I don't live in Kentucky, but if I did, I sure as hell wouldn't find it funny.

[ Parent ]
I don't really like it either but
the state is really willing to do just about anything to give the impression that jobs are being created. Lots of things are getting tax breaks and such. Like some have said, there are so many issues with the whole project that it may never see the light of day.

Beshear is socially fairly conservative, but he's not a demagogue. He's mostly stayed away from the religious aspect of this project. Not that that makes it a good idea, but it could be worse. Besides, stuff like this would just be the beginning under a Williams administration.

20, Democrat, KY-01


[ Parent ]
yes, everybody is saying they need tax breaks because
that will create jobs. Well, sometimes the loss of revenue is worth it, sometimes not.  The latter category includes tax breaks for the rich, and also, imho, tax breaks for creationist theme parks.  Very bad use of tax payer funds.  It would be much better to fund medicaid or state unemployment insurance.

I'm afraid my original comment might be veering to much into policy land, so I will end my discussion here.


[ Parent ]
Can someone explain this to me?
Does Kentucky have a line-item veto? How was he able to veto some of the cuts but not the entire budget?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Oh, nvm, they do
Just read the OP again

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
He really is underrated
He's emblematic of the side of our state's Dems that people don't always see or appreciate- the ones that, while firmly to the right of the national party, are very willing to go to bat and play hardball on populist, meat-and-potatoes issues.

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
Also
stuff like this is why I am fully confident he'll be re-elected unless everything goes to hell in the next eight months. He's just a very good politician, in the classic sense.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
I agree Besear appears well positioned to be re-elected
Beshear fits the state very well and has proven to be a great tactician as a candidate and as Governor, so it would be a big upset if he was beaten by a Republican the calibre of David Williams.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
I can just imagine Senator Williams in his evil lair right now
Shaking his fist, yelling "Foiled again!  I'll get you next time, Beshear!  Next time!"

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I lol'd as well
That's gotta be one of the best political maneuvers I've ever read.

[ Parent ]
Filner cancelled fundraising events in DC a couple months back...
...which is VERY unlike him.  Made me wonder if he was going to retire, but now I see that he's thinking of his next career.

Another article to heighten the anticipation
From the Virginian-Pilot, about the maps' effect on the Hampton Roads delegation. Looks like they're going to put the two Republican Senators from Virginia Beach in the same district (and comically, one of them is threatening to move to Newport News to run in another district).

Haha
Interesting. Can't wait to see what each side has come up with. From the sound of it, it's going to be ugly.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Well, Paula Miller was pretty much screwed
Her district is swingy, underpopulated, and she's never really locked it down.

I am surprised that they're possibly going after Robin Abbott. I would have expected her district to be a Democratic vote sink, especially since the other Newport News district isn't overly Republican. I figured they'd try to cut out Bill Barlow by giving Williamsburg to Abbott.


[ Parent ]
CA-36 the P and F Party
    The Peace and Freedom Party was originally founded in 1967 as an antiwar party and has existed in CA more or less ever since (though they lost ballot status at one point but are now fully qualified.) It is the leftmost of CA's six parties as it is now explicitly socialist where the Greens are more just the whole-wheat left. Of course they don't have a major impact on the elections, but I wanted to explain about that "party"...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

California Greens
Mind you, I did think it an interesting tidbit that the Californian Greens thrice ran Peter Camejo for Governor - who had a proper socialist past, having run for President as the Trot candidate of the Socialist Workers Party in 1976. (Looking up his Wikipedia to check that year, I also see that as late as 2002 he called himself a "watermelon," as in "green on the outside, red on the inside".)

Mind you, he was also a millionaire, I believe, so an odd duck, in any case - and I guess the Green Party has changed a little since the 2004 fracas?

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


[ Parent ]
Jon Huntsman
His brother, Peter Huntsman, the CEO of Huntsman Chemical, said his brother Jon could make an attractive candidate, but not necessarily in 2012. All of the recent action makes it seem likely he's going to run for the nomination in 2012, but I guess I could see him toying with the idea of staking out the responsible conservative end now and, after the humiliating defeat of a Bachmann like candidate, trying to parlay that into the nomination in 2016. He's young enough, after all. But considering that Tea Party leader Jaqueline Smith of Utah said he's a socialist on a good day and a communist on a bad one, I'm not sure he has a place left in the Republican party.

Interestingly, the Bloomberg article mentions that Peter Huntsman voted for Obama and still wants him to succeed. [Personal note: if you want a focus on economic development and deficit reduction, Peter Huntsman, why don't you offer your services to the president? You aren't some small time business owner; you're the CEO of a MAJOR corporation. You could possibly bring a lot of business leaders along with you.] I've flirted with this idea before, but I'll make it official: I think there's a (growing?) chance Jon Huntsman enters the Utah Senate race, but as a Democrat, or an Independent that caucuses with them. Does his personal appeal in the state remain strong? If so, and if the Republicans bounce Hatch, he could have an opening. I'm prepared to eat my words if this doesn't come true, but if it does, you heard it here first.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


From Canada: This so deserves a caption contest...
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/...

My caption: If I hit it back does that mean I get to form the next government?


"I Saw The Light"
That's by Hank Williams. For all I know, it is sung in Baptist churches, but it isn't older than dirt.  

FL-Sen: Bill Nelson at 38/34 approval
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

He was at 36-33 approval when PPP last polled Florida (in December).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Senator Empty Suit?
Honestly, Nelson, in my opinion, has not done a lot to stand out, make himself known. He's just . . . there. Shame.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I would be amazed
if the numbers released tomorrow didn't show him with soft support from Democrats, who will of course come home on election day and vote for him. That was the situation last time, of course, and if he's in the same position, which includes him being surprisingly popular with Republicans, he's in a pretty strong position. Perhaps he won't dominate like he did last time, but if he's securing at least half of the Independent vote and 90 percent of the Democratic vote, he's going to win, and probably quite easily.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
empty suit
That's how I've always felt about Maria Cantwell and Herb Kohl.

23, dude, gay, IL-13

[ Parent ]
Is that because
they are legitimately useless or ineffectual or because they just don't make headlines?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
After hearing Maria tear into John Ashcroft
at his confirmation hearings back in '00, I've never had a doubt about her. And her push for the public option and different approaches to meeting CO2 limits have confirmed my belief. That lady has substance.

[ Parent ]
True
I forgot about that. I still don't know what Herb Kohl does.

Half of the Republican caucus are empty suits. Ever hear anything about Senators Risch, Barrasso, Isakson, Crapo, Wicker, Johanns saying or doing anything notable?

23, dude, gay, IL-13


[ Parent ]
I'd guess since Dems are in the majority
The GOPers that are from seats where you'd get tossed out for working with us means you become an empty suit.

[ Parent ]
pat roberts
and herb kohl are the senate's two biggest empty suits

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
If I were making a list...
Sens. Kohl, Roberts, Cardin, Risch, Johanns, Bingaman, Carper, Cochran, Isakson, Tim Johnson, Begich, and Burr are practically invisible. Total nonentities.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
How can you be sure
That some of them aren't active or influential in issues and policies that don't make headlines?  I don't know how much you follow that kind of thing--maybe you're working from more knowledge than I have--but I am always wary of trying to evaluate how active a politician is or isn't behind the scenes.  Maybe those Senators just don't go on TV as much, or have as many reporter friends.  Or maybe they are just empty suits!

Cardin seems to have sponsored a couple of laws that I might even read if I wasn't on my always-crashing phone (something about stormwater and the EPA, and a couple about the Chesapeke Bay).  You can search on Thomas.loc.gov to see laws sponsored by the other people you mentioned.  Some of which seem trivial or stupid, but then this is only one way a Senator can alter public policy.  Anyway, my point is I dunno.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)


[ Parent ]
Cardin had some others, stupid me and phone(nt)


25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Apparently...
Crapo is held in high enough regard by his colleagues that Reid and Frist talked him up as a possible Supreme Court nominee in 2005. That being said, Risch and Johanns must be the least notable senators in the entire body.

http://www.whorunsgov.com/Prof...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/w...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)


[ Parent ]
Carper, Cardin, Risch, and Shelby
I can never remember them when I am listing senators.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Risch and Cardin are the two I always forget.
I only remember Shelby because of his party switch, and Carper because of all the talk about Delaware during 2009 and 2010 and because he beat William Roth of Roth IRA fame.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
* May be the least notable senators.


20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Let Roman Hruska stand up for them
Remember what he said in support of G. Harold Carswell?

[ Parent ]
The first noteworthy thing Johanns has done in his Senate career
was to vote for the DADT repeal.

[ Parent ]
It's true.
It's also true that Florida has a HUGE transient population, and there are many people in the state now who weren't there to vote for/against him in 2006.  It's got to be hard to remain known in those instances.

[ Parent ]
He needs to get his face plastered everywhere.
And make voters think he's the guy from Growing Pains.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Huh?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Bill Nelson bears a resemblance to Alan Thicke from Growing Pains.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Mississippi Presidential Numbers
He's down by 14 against Huckabee, six against Gingrich and Romney, and only four against Palin. Oddly enough, he's down only ten against Haley Barbour, who the state's voters do not seem particularly enthused about as far as the presidential race goes.

As I said at PPP's blog, these numbers are remarkably similar to the results in 2008, when he lost the state by 13 points to McCain. But what's curious is his 16 percent approval rating amongst whites. In 2008, he only received 11 percent of their votes. It's certainly possible that people there approve of him but won't vote for him, but why would that be the case? And while he only has a 93 percent approval rating amongst blacks, he received 98 percent of their votes in 2008. I don't see that changing much at all.

If we take PPP's racial breakdown of 63/33/4 for white/black/other, with Obama getting 16/98/70 percent, that would leave him with 45.22 percent. If he were able to get all the way up to 20 percent of the white vote, he'd be up to 47.74 percent of the vote. Even if we were to change the racial breakdown to 61/35/4 and have Obama get both 20 percent of the white vote and 98 percent of the black vote, he'd still only 49.3 percent of the vote overall.

You can see the uphill climb, but since the margin is so close against some of these candidates, since the state is so cheap to campaign in, and since there are House and Senate contests, perhaps he could make a play for the state if he's feeling adventurous.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


Link:
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Not bad for the state.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
No, not at all.
Again, he's basically remained in the same spot since he was first elected. But since he do much of anything in the state, he'll probably get some votes just by showing up, and while I can't think he'll change many minds, he could change some. Also, while blacks already do turnout at high rates, perhaps they could be nudged just a little higher.

In order to win the state, the campaign would probably have to have a perfect storm, but the cost of trying to bring very last voter out of the woodwork seems so small that it's probably worth doing, if only as a test case for other races. If what the Obama campaign tried worked to a large degree, perhaps Democratic hopes in the state and others like it wouldn't always be a contest of "We're screwed" versus "We're so fucked."

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Not too bad for Obama
He won't prevail here, but, in all fairness, if he's sitting above 40 percent approval in Mississippi, I suspect he's in fine shape to win nationwide. It is interesting, however, to see how unenthused Mississipians seem to be about a Barbour presidential run. This, after two recent-ish polls showed him garnering all of 1 percent, nationwide, in the GOP primary.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Maybe they want him to stay where he is
And aren't aware he is term-limited.

[ Parent ]
Most of the undecideds are white
This looks like a standard statewide race in MS. The Democrats have a base, such that its next to impossible for them to fall below 37% or so even in midterm years, and usually can rely on 42-44%. I mean Eaves got 42% against Barbour.

Its getting past that that is the problem, and Obama does not get past 44% even against Palin, with virtually all the undecideds being white. I would be shocked if Palin didn't end up winning by around 9 points or so even under that model.  

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Racial polarization
Whites are voting for the Republicans and blacks are voting for the Democrats, and that usually doesn't change statewide. Someone like Huckabee wouldn't give us an opening, and neither would someone standard Pawlenty (who didn't implode, of course), but someone like Palin might. Of course, I am not sure if that's more from people that normally vote Republican voting for Obama or the Obama campaign turning out new white voters. I wouldn't be surprised to see her win in the end, were she the nominee, but the fact that Mississippi would be a swing state tells us a lot.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
There is varietion
Evidence however argues that it peters out before 50%.

In 2003 Tate Anderson, a 27 year old one term state rep ran for State Auditor against Gary Anderson, a successful African American Investment banker and economist who had advised the EU on monetary policy. Every newspaper in the state endorsed Gary Anderson, and a whole lot of Republican leaning groups did as well. Everyone expected him to be the state's first AA elected official. He lost 52-47.

To be fair, given how Democrats have done lately thats not bad, and he did better than incumbent Governor Ronnie Musgrove. So he came back for another try in 2007, this time at Insurance Commissioner, and lost again 54-43.

The problem is that the white vote is solidifying to such an extent that the only Democrat they will vote for is an incumbent local one. The same thing is happening in Georgia, and in Alabama even Folsom lost the LG race last year. Those final few percentage points are hard. At least incumbents do make them in the deep south. No Democrat has won any of the more than 100 statewide elections since 1994 in Texas.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
I have to wonder
how much of that is simply due to the effects of incumbency and habitual party voting and the state Democratic parties in disarray. I guess you could say that it looks like they've hit rock bottom, so if they invest in building the party, things can only get better, at least for in-state candidates. I wouldn't expect everything to be rosy were some of this to change, but it wouldn't be so bad. Perhaps all they need is a chance to see that Democrats aren't as bad as some Republicans say they are, which they will hopefully get as demographic trends get them over the initial hump more often, or at all.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Georgia not like Mississippi, the Dems' floor with whites is much higher......
Kerry and Obama both got about one-quarter of the white vote in Georgia, so that's the Democratic floor there.  Any white Southerner willing to vote for a Massachusetts liberal for President, and then the next time around for a liberal black guy from Chicago with a Swahili name and "Hussein" for a middle name, is going to vote for just about any Democrat.

One-quarter of the white vote in Mississippi would put a statewide race into tossup status.

Georgia is browning faster than much of the South, and will turn much more quickly than anyplace else I think in the Deep South.  Not only are a lot of Hispanics and Asians moving in, but even the black population is increasing as a percentage of the total.

But yeah, before Georgia swings back into a competitive zone, it's had white voters abandoning Democrats altogether, and that's why the past decade has not been competitive there except for Obama '08.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Georgia
I believe that the white vote in and around Atlanta is pretty tech savvy and part of the white collar, techy liberal group. Also, there are places like Athens that hold a LOT of white Democrats sprinkled in as well. Georgia is a much easier nut to crack for Democrats in the short-to-middle term because of the diversification and the willingness for some of the educated white voters to vote for Republicans. That being said, the Sam Nunn voters are gone forever from the Democratic party, it's just that these voters make up a smaller and smaller portion of the electorate every cycle.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Sam Nunn
Democrats may be gone from the party forever, but Sam Nunn will forever and always mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate for the Democratic ticket. He'll be dead and people will still bring up his name.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Mississippi as a tossup
In addition to pumping up black turnout even higher than it is now and bringing new white voters into the process, we'd need to change some minds. In theory at least, we could not do that, and instead try to rely solely on bringing new voters into the process, but that makes the job much harder, if not impossible.



"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Romney
Romney is not popular at all with Republicans there. He has just 43/35 favorables with them. In contrast Huckabee is 73/13, Palin 67/25, and Newt 64/19. This looks like just anti-Mormon prejudice to me. If "authenticity" were the issue, Newt's numbers would be at least as bad as his. Romney has better favs than Newt or Palin among Dems for what that's worth.


41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Nate's theory on the white southern '12 vote
if I remember right, (can't find the link,) is that some whites will feel more comfortable with the President after 4 years -- I think he even put a 3.3% (average) number on that.

So an increase of 5% approval among white MS voters is not inconsistent with that.


[ Parent ]
Same number of Dems and Republicans?
Unlikely I think.

[ Parent ]
Good catch.
Didn't think to check that. Still, it's interesting to see that the result seem to line up with 2008 results despite the difference in party composition.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think doubting is a mistake, the party ID breakdown makes sense......
I think MS still has a substantial number of very conservative whites who'll self-identify as "Democrats."

We had 3 of the 4 Congressional seats there just last year!

So I don't question the party ID numbers in the poll.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Right.
Like I said, the results seem to end up the same no matter what: Huckabee defeats Obama by a similar margin that McCain defeated him by. And the racial breakdown is basically the same.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
2008 turnout was R+5
In 2004 it was R+9.

[ Parent ]
LA State Senate Map all but passed
http://www.nola.com/politics/i...

The map passed the State Senate today and is expected to pass the House with ease. There is 1 additional black majority district. All in all, looks to me like a wash. Should be interesting in the future.

Question, if this were to pass the house this week, would that make it the first finished redistricting plan in the nation?

If so, who would've thought the Democratic-controlled senate would've been able to pass their plan faster than in states with one party control. Just goes to show how little party label matters down here.

21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)


Republican majort
The Senate is majority republican now but it still has a Dem president. House Speaker Jim Tucker (R) is term limited and wants to run for senate but is in an unfavorable district. He will introduce his own senate plan and raise hell in the house. Don't assume the senate bill will pass easily

[ Parent ]
WI GOP slapped down in court again.
http://www.jsonline.com/news/s...
http://host.madison.com/wsj/ne...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


The Wisconsin Republicans
extreme lack of respect for the law is disturbing and not so surprising.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
McCaskill backs Christie Vilsack for Congress
Jake Wagman has the story for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Sen. Claire McCaskill allowed for a moment of politics at Monday's event with the nation's farming chief, offering a word of encouragement for U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilasck after a joint appearance on the riverfront.
Only it wasn't Vilsack that McCaskill was extending her support to -- it was his wife.
Christie Vilsack, former First Lady of the Corn State, has been edging toward running for office herself, contemplating a run for Congress.
"Tell Christie I think it's a great idea," McCaskill said to Tom Vilsack after a press conference at the ADM grain elevator in St. Louis. "Tell her I'll come up and knock on some doors!"

We Iowans can't wait for that map on Thursday morning!


Would that apply
if Vilsack runs against Boswell or another incumbent D?

[ Parent ]
I'm even in anticipation myself
Bout damn time Iowa elected a woman to Congress.

[ Parent ]
AZ Senate
Franks in.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Let the sparks fly.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Great news, divisive R primary guaranteed, and it improves our chances......
Now we just need a good candidate.

And I must say, I'm finding myself increasingly skeptical, and over any irrational exuberance, about Giffords.  I just saw an interview on MSNBC today with James and Sarah Brady, and it was chilling to see Jim on TV.  He's permanently disabled, slow to speak and motor skills inhibited, and this after 30 years.

A gunshot wound to the head is not something you come back from quickly, and usually never completely.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm increasingly thinking by late this year or early next year, we'll be hearing Giffords announce her retirement.  I hope not.  But I'll be surprised if she's running again.  If she is in a condition to run, I wouldn't be surprised if she just goes ahead and runs for Senate.  But somehow I'm skeptical now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Giffords and Brady
What's the difference between his injury and her injury? The only thing I've read about her recently is that she was slowly being told what happened. I wouldn't be surprised if she has to retire because of this, but I wouldn't want to speak with any certainty until we hear more.

Now, I don't know if the Democratic bench is as weak in the state as some say, but even if it is, there's got to be some mayor or small businessman or activist that can talk like a moderate and campaign hard. I remain convinced that the candidate matters less than the campaign he or she chooses to run, for the most part. People don't usually make the jump directly into the senate without a smaller political career, but it's not unheard of. If we can simply find a good candidate and devote the resources to the race that are necessary to get our voters to the polls, we could win. We might not, of course, but we don't need to lose badly.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Believe me, the LAST thing I'm doing is "speaking with any certainty"......
I'm just speculating.  And with Gabby, as unpredictable as everything, my speculation bounces around all over the place.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Brady's injury and Giffords' are totally different
Brady's injury involved both sides of the brain. Gifford's did not.

When Arizona upset Duke in March Madness, Gifford's staff made a public announcement and it was all over the local news. It was a political statement. She's not quitting just yet.


[ Parent ]
Thanks, on both pieces of info which are encouraging......
I didn't know about the Arizona game announcement.

I hope she can run, and I hope she ditches her seat and runs for Senate.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
As much as I'm rooting for Gabby
I fear that the nation will be watching her too closely on April 19(?) when Mark Kelly flies the space shuttle.

Even if Gabby is there, I fear that there will be some harsh judgements made on that date.


[ Parent ]
tietack, no, they don't allow the families to be filmed......
Because of the Challenger explosion they seclude the families from the media, so in case of disaster they are not in the spotlight at the worst moment of their lives.  There will be no camaras.

And I think we should expect that any public appearance by Gabby will be carefully choreographed to her maximum public benefit.  If she's not going to come off as well as they want her to, they simply won't let her be seen by reporters or anyone with a camara.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
A relief to hear
it's not soon enough to be her first public appearance.

[ Parent ]
"...hosted by Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Sheriff Joe Arpaio."
Apparently Mussolini was busy that day.

[ Parent ]
Chris Cilliza...
Profiles Republican's search for a candidate to go up against Debbie Stabenow in 2012.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

He says some Republicans are hoping some rich businessman will enter the race and light the state on fire ala Ron Johnson, or that "hugely popular vote-getter" will enter the race, conveniently forgetting that PPP found his approval rating to be upside down at 33-45, and losing to Stabenow 49-42 (even as Hoekstra nearly tied her at 45-44). I'm still of the opinion that the nominee will be Some Rich Dude.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)


Yeah, I think Hoesktra = Tommy Thompson
The GOP would much rather have a self-funding unknown than a guy with lukewarm favorables whose ceiling is probably 47%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I actually meant John Engler...
But forgot to type his name out for some reason, though I agree that Hoekstra's ceiling is around 46-48%.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Searching for a Ron Johnson is a sign of flailing badly......
They found lightning in a bottle with Ron Johnson, what he pulled off just doesn't happen but once in a blue moon.  The NRSC knows that.  You recruit people who are well-liked and have a resume of public service, that's always the best bet.  You take a flyer on a Ron Johnson, and he was the one example of that working out.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Three great examples of why it mostly doesn't work.
Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, and Linda McMahon.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
You could add Dick DeVos for our own state.


20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Going back further, Bob Kerrey as DSCC Chair tried the same in 1996......
Kerrey recruited accomplished businessmen who had never been elected to anything for Senate seats in Idaho, Oregon, and South Carolina.  Walt Minnick, the recent one-term-wonder in Congress, was the Idaho recruit.  Kerrey's idea was a DLCish one of pushing a moderate pro-business image to try to win seats, which seemed to make sense after the 1994 scare and the hyperconservative state of the much-whiter-than-today national electorate...except that it failed miserably.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Novices as Candidates
Having political novices as candidates isn't the worst thing in the world, provided they go through the ringer in some way and/or they aren't being promoted over more experienced and possibly better candidates. I've said plenty of times that I think the way the race is approached matters more than the candidate, and I stand by that. Of course, I'd rather have a person who has run a campaign before, but it's not the end of the world if we have someone who hasn't. Hell, in some cases, it might be better, since this person could run as an outsider as opposed to a "career politician."  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I don't think the Ron Johnson Model...
If there is one, would work in Michigan in 2012 (or any other year, for that matter), but I don't think the example of recruiter a rich businessman to run against Stabenow is that specious, and I've thought it the most likely one for a while because:

1). Stabenow is not likely as vulnerable as polls show, and I think Republicans in Lansing and Washington know this. It's no accident that this has been the sleepiest of the big 2012 Senate races with a Dem incumbent.

2). Michigan is, as Cilliza points out, not a cheap state to advertise in because of the number of medium-sized media markets strewn throughout the state (one reason McCain's pulled out of the state in September of 2008 that people usually forget). Let some one else pick up the bill!

3). None of the state's Repub congressman are likely to run (though McCotter might since there are very few options in light of the state's census data that show any way to keep his and Dingell's districts from the shredder), Lynn is not likely to run, Cox and Engler are damaged goods, and all three of the Repubs elected statewide are either too unknown (Ruth Johnson), have never really had tough or difficult races (Snyder, as seen by his recent amateurish actions), or have had failed runs for the Senate before (Schuette, who probably only won because of the national climate and the weakness of his opponent). The state Repubs have an unusually weak bench for a party that has dominated local politics for almost 20 years.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)


[ Parent ]
The problem for Republicans in Michigan...
Is simply that anyone who isn't vocally against what Gov. Snyder and the Republican legislature is doing to public-sector unions and vocally for the extraordinarily successful Detroit financial rescue just won't get elected statewide. And Snyder was about the most liberal Republican to make it through a statewide primary last year (challenged for the title by unsuccessful Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker and unsuccessful Vermont senatorial candidate Len Britton), and now he's a big part of the problem for Michigan Republicans because his approvals have wrapped themselves in the flag and jumped off a cliff.

In short, the Republicans won't nominate someone who can win. They've totally screwed themselves. And if someone can get Sen. Snowe on the record over the similar labor issues in her state, it'll be the same for Maine, and that's a pickup opportunity.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
You might know better than me,
have the Democrats tried to tie Snowe to any of this stuff? Are they simply waiting until the right time to strike? Seems like too good a weapon to not use it, you know?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Not that I've seen
Then again, I've only been following Maine as much as I've been following any other state.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Nothing has happened, yet
It's all been talk in Maine... no real legislative action, yet, on that front.

[ Parent ]
that pollster in Wisconsin
I guess they hope that their polls will be seen as more exact and thus more scientific. Will be interesting to see how this poll is reported in the media


Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox