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Moderates vs. Independents Part I (Introduction, 2010 chart)

by: DGM

Mon Mar 28, 2011 at 1:29 PM EDT


So I'm sure that everyone here is familiar with the simplistic analysis about Independents, that they're all swing voters, that they're all somehow supporting something coherent, that they are, like their namesake, completely independent from either political party. Savvy political analysists have long understood that the number of truly Independent voters is a lot smaller than the self-identification numbers suggest, but that doesn't stop even the most savvy of political analysists from assuming that Independent = Moderate. Not only is this wrong, it's actually the case that even moderate voters are not the swing voters that the media makes them out to be.

For example, would it surprise you to learn that in 2010, when Republicans absolutely destroyed Democrats in the House, Democrats won moderates 55-43? Or maybe you'd be interested to learn that Blanche Lincoln, after losing the election to John Boozman by 21 points that she had won moderates by 14 points.

Independents, as one might expect, went very big for the Republicans, favoring them to the Democrats by a 56-37 point margin. This should serve as a strong reminder as to why Independents are not moderates and why moderates aren't necessarily swing voters.

To read the chart that's below the fold, the Independent/Moderate numbers are the percentages that Democratic candidates got, the comparison is how much more Democratic the moderate vote was compared to the Independent vote. The final number is how well the Democratic candidate did among moderates relative to Independents. The only races here are ones with exit poll data from 2010 (hence why DE-AL and VT-AL are part of the data).Also the Y and N show whether or not the Democratic candidate won the moderate vote. Also, in the case of FL-Sen, I combined Crist's numbers and Meeks's numbers together for purposes of this analysis. Alvin Greene's numbers in South Carolina are also his own, but it's also worth mentioning that 13% of the moderate vote went to the Green nominee, Tom Clemonts, meaning that the combined moderate vote in South Carolina went 53% against DeMint even as the vote went 63-37 for him.

And without further ado, the data:

DGM :: Moderates vs. Independents Part I (Introduction, 2010 chart)
  Independent Moderate Comparison   Mod won? D vote  Mod compared to actual vote
AZ-Sen 29% 45% 16%   N 35% 10%
AZ-Gov 40% 59% 19%   Y 43% 16%
AR-Sen 25% 55% 30%   Y 37% 18%
AR-Gov 59% 79% 20%   Y 64% 15%
CA-Sen 42% 58% 16%   Y 52% 6%
CA-Gov 42% 59% 17%   Y 54% 5%
CO-Sen 37% 60% 23%   Y 48% 12%
CO-Gov 39% 64% 25%   Y 51% 13%
CT-Sen 48% 56% 8%   Y 55% 1%
CT-Gov 38% 50% 12%   Y 49% 1%
DE-Sen 48% 66% 18%   Y 56% 10%
DE-AL 47% 66% 19%   Y 57% 9%
FL-Sen 48% 64% 16%   Y 50% 14%
FL-Gov 44% 60% 16%   Y 48% 12%
HI-Sen 69% 83% 14%   Y 75% 8%
HI-Gov 51% 59% 8%   Y 58% 1%
IL-Sen 28% 51% 23%   Y 47% 4%
IL-Gov 29% 51% 22%   Y 47% 4%
IN-Sen 34% 52% 18%   Y 40% 12%
IA-Sen 28% 42% 14%   N 33% 9%
IA-Gov 41% 55% 14%   Y 43% 12%
KY-Sen 42% 57% 15%   Y 44% 13%
LA-Sen 32% 48% 16%   Y 38% 10%
MO-Sen 31% 52% 21%   Y 41% 11%
NV-Sen 44% 66% 22%   Y 50% 16%
NV-Gov 32% 53% 21%   Y 41% 12%
NH-Sen 35% 43% 8%   N 37% 6%
NH-Gov 53% 68% 15%   Y 53% 15%
NY-Sen 54% 75% 21%   Y 66% 9%
NY-Sen* 50% 69% 19%   Y 63% 6%
NY-Gov 49% 71% 22%   Y 63% 8%
OH-Sen 27% 48% 21%   Y 39% 9%
OH-Gov 37% 58% 21%   Y 47% 11%
OR-Sen 47% 61% 14%   Y 57% 4%
OR-Gov 43% 52% 9%   Y 49% 3%
PA-Sen 45% 60% 15%   Y 49% 11%
PA-Gov 41% 53% 12%   Y 46% 7%
SC-Sen 14% 40% 26%   N 28% 12%
SC-Gov 41% 63% 22%   Y 47% 16%
TX-Gov 40% 62% 22%   Y 42% 20%
VT-Sen 68% 68% 0%   Y 64% 4%
VT-Gov 51% 42% -9%   N 50% -8%
VT-AL 69% 66% -3%   Y 65% 1%
WA-Sen 41% 57% 16%   Y 52% 5%
WV-Sen 51% 67% 16%   Y 54% 13%
WI-Sen 43% 58% 15%   Y 47% 11%
WI-Gov 42% 56% 14%   Y 47% 9%
 Average 42.30% 58.45% 16.15%   Y 49.38% 9.06%
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Moderates vs. Independents Part I (Introduction, 2010 chart) | 8 comments
No one really says
that all Independents are moderates. Independents run the whole gamut - from far left to far right. What people have said (and said correctly) is that, considered as a big group, Independent's vote is more conservative that's rhat of partisan Democrats and more liberal then that of partisan Republicans, i.e. - more or less moderate. That's confirmed by data above. Independents generally voted 42.30% for Democratic candidates in 2010? Good. That's less then 50%, but not by so much, and surely much less then vote among partisan Democrats (more then 80% for sure) and as surely - much less then corresponding vote among partisan Republicans (surely - less then 20%). I don't have data for 2006 and 2008 but i am reasonably sure that in these years Independendents voted at least 55% Democratic. So what? Again - not so far from the center...

So, you didn't convinced me before, neither - this time..))))

Dude
In 2008 independent voters went to the Democrats 52-4 moderates went 60-38 for Democrats. BTW per national exit polls in 2010 if you had bothered to read the whole diary were 56-37 in favor of the Republicans. These exit polls actually overstated Democratic support. Can't do much more details since I'm at work and typing this on my smartphone but even in 2008 Democrats did a lot better among moderates than among Independents.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
You again confirmed what i said
Thank you very much)))) Independents and moderates vote similarly (usually no more then 10-15% difference) and very differently from partisan Democrats and Republicans. That/s what i always stated. Really - THANK YOU!!!!
[ Parent ]
You just live in your own little world don't you?
10-15% difference is quite large (though, I'm trying to figure out where you got that 10-15 number, there are quite a lot of 20+ differences between moderates and independents, which isn't the margin, it's the % of each group Democrats got, which means the differences in those cases are even higher).

Incidentally, your point is itself ridiculous, it's kinda like saying that Ohio votes similarly to New Jersey when you compare how Washington DC votes to Utah, it's true but it doesn't change the fact that New Jersey and Ohio actually vote differently (and my point ultimately was that moderates are Democratic when you get right down do it, which they are, and you didn't prove anything else other than to prove how pompous you are).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I could ask the same question to you
and i would have more rationale for it then vice versa. 10-15% is not a very important statustical difference. It's not like 60-70% difference between partisan Democrats and partisan Republicans. And to be in 40-60% range as percentage of voting for Democratic candidates is exactly to be in "moderate" range. The only thing you "prove" by your numbers is that a group you call (or which even self-identifies) as "moderates" is somewhat more liberal then group called "Independents". May be, and so what??? That doesn't refute in any way the fact that Independents vote generally moderate line - in 2008 most of them were somewhat left of center, in 2010 - somewhat right of center, what's natural given the environment.

So, don't be too overconfident - i am not a fool and not a maniac too. If there is one between us - it's not me....

[ Parent ]
And pompous are you, not me, tooo
It's a bad thing to be pompous and ... - here a agree with you. So i feel sorrow for you. If you can't make logical conclusions from two columns of numbers - it's really bad. And you - can't, regretfully. I can say that as a mathematician (though not a statistician) by profession.. I know what the numbers mean))))
[ Parent ]
I think a lot of this has to do with the term "Liberal"
Republican messaging in the 80's succeeded in making "liberal" a dirty word of sorts, and people who are left-of-center have shied away from using that label to describe their politics. Hence, many mainstream Democrats instead choose to describe themselves as "moderates," even when they are in fact to the left of the 50-yard line of politics, perhaps as far to the left as the 25-yard line. Even today, the term "liberal" remains out of favor, with people at the left end of the political spectrum preferring to identify as "progressive."

The term "conservative" on the other hand never really took on the negative connotation that "liberal" did, and pretty much everyone to the right of center identifies as such. That is why you see conservative pluralities in ideology polls, as the left-of-center voters split between the liberal and moderate labels. Very few Republicans, perhaps only those between the 50- and 60- yard lines politically, choose to identify as "moderate" over "conservative."

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

This is exactly correct
Lots of automatic Democratic voters self-describe as "Moderate". Only in simplistic major network news election stories is this not taken for granted.  
[ Parent ]
Moderates vs. Independents Part I (Introduction, 2010 chart) | 8 comments

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