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Idaho Legislature PVIs (if anyone is interested)

by: IdahoSocialist

Fri Mar 25, 2011 at 6:27 AM EDT


District 1 (Boundary County and Sandpoint)
2004: Bush 61.1%, Kerry 36.9%
2008: McCain 56.9%, Obama 40%
Senator Sean Keough (R), Representative Eric Anderson (R), Representative George Eskridge (R)

District 2 (Shoshone County, Benewah County and part of Bonner County)
2004: Bush 62.6%, Kerry 35.7%
2008: McCain 59.3%, Obama 37.4%
Senator Joyce Broadsword (R), Representative Shannon McMillan (R), Representative R.J. Hardwood (R)

District 3 (Coeur d' Alene's suburbs, exurbia and rural areas, also my district!)
2004: Bush 71.3%, Kerry 27.3%
2008: McCain 67.7%, Obama 30.0%
Senator Steve Vick (R), Representative Vito Barbieri (R), Representative Phil Hart (R)

District 4 (Coeur d' Alene)
2004: Bush 59%, Kerry 39.4%
2008: McCain 53.3%, Obama 44.2%
Senator John Goedde (R), Representative Marge Chadderdon (R), Representative Kathleen Sims (R)

District 5 (more suburbia except it's a Spokane oriented one called Post Falls)
2004: Bush 69%, Kerry 29.2%
2008: McCain 64.9%, Obama 32.6%
Senator Jim Hammond (R), Representative Bob Nonini (R), Representative Frank Henderson (R)

District 6 (Latah County: home of the University of Idaho and nothing else besides a few sheep fucking peasants)
2004: Bush 49.5%, Kerry 48.0%
2008: Obama 51.3%, McCain 44.6%
Senator Dan Schmidt (D), Representative Tom Trail (R), Representative Shirley Ringo (D)

District 7 (Lewiston, a few small towns and a Nez Pearce reservation)
2004: Bush 62.2%, Kerry 36.6%
2008: McCain 58.1%, Obama 40.0%
Senator Joe Stenger (R), Representative Jeff Nessett (R), Representative John Rusche (D)

District 8 (Clearwater County, Lewis County, Idaho County and Valley County. Known for vast expanses of nothing)
2004: Bush 70.3%, Kerry 27.3%
2008: McCain 65.1%, Obama 31.8%
Senator Sheryl Nuxoll (R), Representative Ken A. Roberts (R), Representative Paul Shepard (R)

District 9 (Adams, Washington and Payette. No idea what exists here besides a Payette Lake)
2004: Bush 75.3%, Kerry 23.5%
2008: McCain 69.1%, Obama 28.4%
Senator Monty Pearce (R), Lawrence Denney (R), Judy Boyle (R)

District 10 (Boise's exurbs and suburbs)
2004: Bush 72.1%, Kerry 26.6%
2008: McCain 61.9%, Obama 35.8%
Senator John McGee (R), Representative Pat Taskugi (R), Darrell Bolz (R)

District 11 (Boise's exurbs and farmland)
2004: Bush 76.9%, Kerry 21.7%
2008: McCain 71.6%, Obama 25.8%
Senator Melissa Snyder (R), Representative Steven Thayn (R), Representative Carlos Bilbao (R)

District 12 (Nampa)
2004: Bush 72.5%, Kerry 26.5%
2008: McCain 61.5%, Obama 36%
Senator Curtis McKenzie (R), Representative Robert Shaffer (R), Representative Melissa Robinson (R)

District 13 (Boise suburbs)
2004: Bush 76.2%, Kerry 22.5%
2008: McCain 69.6%, Obama 29.9%
Senator Patti Longe (R), Representative Brent Crane (R), Representative Christy Perry (R)

District 14 (Eagle and parts of Meridian)
2008: McCain 62.8%, Obama 35.5%
Senator Chuck Winder (R), Representative Mike Moyle (R), Representative Reed DeMourdant (R)

District 15 (Meridian)
2004: Bush 64.0%, Kerry 34.8%
2008: McCain 53.0%, Obama 44.8%
Senator John C Andreason (R), Representative Lynn Luker (R), Representative Max Black (R)

District 16 (West Boise)
2004: Bush 55.2%, Kerry 43.5%
2008: Obama 53.0%, McCain 44.5%
Senator Les Bock (D), Representative Grant Burgoyne (D), Representative Elfreda Higgins (D)

District 17 (Boise Bench)
2004: Bush 50.1%, Kerry 46.7%
2008: Obama 56.6%, McCain 40.1%
Senator Eliott Werk (D), Representative Bill Killen (D), Representative Sue Chew (D)

District 18 (South Boise/Boise State University)
2004: Bush 54.7%, Kerry 46.8%
2008: Obama 52.7%, McCain 45.1%
Senator Mitch Toryanski (R), Representative Julie Ellsworth (R), Representative Phyllis King (D)

District 19 (Boise's Northend which is basically Idaho's mini Boulder, Colorado)
2004: Kerry 60.5%, Bush 37.8%
2008: Obama 67.9%, McCain 29.9%
Senator Nicole LeFavour (D), Representative Cherie Buckner-Webb (D), Brian Cronin (D)

District 20 (Meridian)
2004: Bush 74%, Kerry 25.1%
2008: McCain 62.7%, Obama 34.9%
Senator Shirley McKague (R), Representative Joe Palmer (R), Representative Marve Hagedorn (R)

District 21 (Kuna, Bill Sali's old district)
2004: Bush 73.6%, Kerry 26.5%
2008: McCain 63.5%, Obama 34.2%
Senator Russel Fulcher (R), Representative John Woude (R), Representative Clifford Bayer (R)

District 22 (Mountain Home and Boise County)
2004: Bush 78.3%, Kerry 20.3%
2008: McCain 66.3%, Obama 31.3%
Senator Tim Corder (R), Representative Rich Wills (R), Representative Pete Neilsen (R)

District 23 (Owhyee and the Magic Valley)
2004: Bush 76.7%, Kerry 22.0%
2008: McCain 70.1%, Obama 27.9%
Senator Brett Bracket (R), Representative Jim Patrick (R), Representative Stephen Hartgen (R)

District 24 (Twin Falls)
2004: Bush 73.4%, Kerry 25.4%
2008: McCain 66.0%, Obama 31.4%
Senator Lee Heider (R), Representative Leon Smith (R), Representative Sharon Block (R)

District 25 (Sun Valley)
2004: Bush 54.8%, Kerry 43.8%
2008: Obama 49.6%, McCain 48.0%
Senator Jim Donoval (R), Representative Michael Stennet (D), Representative Wendy Jaquet (D)

District 26 (Jerome County, Minidoka County)
2004: Bush 79.6%, Kerry 19.4%
2008: McCain 72.6%, Obama 24.9%
Senator Dean Cameron (R), Representative Joan Stevenson (R), Representative Maxine Bell (R)

District 27 (Cassia, Oneida and Power counties)
2004: Bush 80.8%, Kerry 17.8%
2008: McCain 75.8%, Obama 21.6%
Senator Denton Darrington (R), Representative Scott Bedke (R), Representative Fred Wood (R)

District 28 (Bingham County)
2004: Bush 76.7%, Kerry 21.9%
2008: McCain 71.2%, Obama 25.8%
Senator Steven Blair (R), Representative Dennis Lake (R), Representative Jim Marriott (R)

District 29 (parts of Pocatello and Chubbuck)
2004: Bush 63.0%, Kerry 35.8%
2008: McCain 56.5%, Obama 41.0%
Senator Diane Bilyeu (D), Ken Andrus (R), Jim Guthrie (R)

District 30 (Pocatello, Idaho State University)
2004: Bush 57.3%, Kerry 41.1%
2008: McCain 48.6%, Obama 48.2%
Senator Edgar Malepai (D), Representative Roy Lacey (D), Representative Elaine Smith (D)

District 31 (Bear Lake, Franklin, Caribou Bonneville and Teton counties)
2004: Bush 80.9%, Kerry 17.8%
2008: McCain 73.9%, Obama 23.0%
Senator Robert Geddes (R), Representative Marc Gibbs (R), Representative Tom Loerstcher (R)

District 32 (Bonneville County)
2004: Bush 80.6%, Kerry 18.2%
2008: McCain 72.6%, Obama 23.4%
Senator Dean Mortimer (R), Representative Janice McGeachin (R), Representative Erik Simpson (R)

District 33 (Idaho Falls)
2004: Bush 71.2%, Kerry 27.5%
2008: McCain 61.9%, Obama 35.4%
Senator Bart Davis (R), Representative Jeff Thompson (R), Representative Linden Bateman (R)

District 34 (BYU-Idaho/Rexburg)
2004: Bush 90.7%, Kerry 8.1%
2008: McCain 84.0%, Obama 13.7%
Senator Brent Hill (R), Representative Mack Shirley (R), Representative Dell Raybould (R)

I skipped district 35. Here's a map of the districts: http://legislature.idaho.gov/a... I'll have an explanation diary coming up with a crash course on Idaho politics for the n00bs.  

IdahoSocialist :: Idaho Legislature PVIs (if anyone is interested)
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So there are basically
Two districts with a Democratic PVI looking at 2008 numbers, and only one of those had a Democratic PVI looking at 2004 numbers?  Which was the only district won by Kerry in the entire state?  Damn...

(I was doing PVI by the candidate numbers rather than by the margin, due to laziness, so if that's wrong I might be wrong, but still.)

Pretty remarkable how Dems have more than three seats, given that.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)


Ehhh
if you know Idaho, you'd know that this is the Democrats' bottoming out point. Places like Nez Pearce County, Bannock County and Shoshone County are traditionally Democratic and were Democratic strongholds just 20 years ago. It's really pathetic that we only have one Democratic legislator from Lewiston and none from Coeur d' Alene.  

[ Parent ]
Wow
I know how you feel, dude.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Are there any majority-minority districts in Idaho?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

The Hispanic population is too spread out for that
I just tried to draw one, the best I could do was about 33% Hispanic near Nampa.

[ Parent ]
Obligatory
VOTE FOR PEDRO!

Or at least his goofy friend Napoleon.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Thanks for this write-up.
Did Obama run ads in ID?  Is that why he did better than Kerry everywhere?

Also, is ID like KS where Dems and moderate Repubs have an unofficial coalition?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Well, by Uniform National Swing
Obama should have done 5% better than Kerry everywhere.  Of course, that might be circular, maybe there's national swings because of advertising.  Obama actually seems to have improved by less than that in many of these districts, but he overperformed that swing in some other districts as well.  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
No
He did better in the Boise metro area because he was a perfect candidate for Boise's urban area. The housing bubble bursting also hit the suburbs of Boise and relatively new developments in Boise really hard. So there was a massive swing to Obama there. Boise's a changing city, the areas that voted Bush-Obama aren't going back to their Republican ways. Ellsworth and Toryanski only won that district by 50 votes each and that was with no turnout from BSU that alone would have made them lose. As for the Mormon areas of Idaho, why they swung so hard is outside of my knowledge. I'd guess it's due to non-Mormons voting at high rates, not sure though.  

[ Parent ]
Is there any way to contact you?
I'm working with the ID Dems on their redistricting proposals, but it would be good to have someone with knowledgw in redistricting AND local knowledge look over my maps and work to improve them?


18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

Yeah
sure just email me the maps at JesseWedewer@yahoo.com

[ Parent ]
Looking over this
It looks like some of the biggest D->R swings in the state from 2004 to 2008 were in the Western Boise suburbs. That makes sense, as there's been a lot of growth there and a lot of liberal tech types moving in there.

Male, VA-08

I really like legislative-level data
Thanks for the information, I once tried to compile it but gave up. I find it especially interesting in states like Idaho, a Republican stronghold where you have to look through legislative data to find areas of Democratic strength. One thing though: don't Sen. Michelle Stennett (D) and Rep. Donna Pence (D) represent the 25th district?

Radical or something, WA-07

They do
My bad, I did this late at night and towards the end I was getting really tired and annoyed with the boring process of deleting numbers on excel.

After living in Idaho my whole life, I have to say that three parts of the state just don't fit together. Southeast Idaho should go to Utah, Boise and its burbs deserves to be its own city state and Northern Idaho should go to Washington. The voting patterns of all three areas is entirely different, the culture of all three areas is pretty different and the distance separating the north from south and east from west is staggering. Calgary is closer to my city than Boise.

Boise is really socially liberal, not so much economically. As an example in 2006, when a good portion of D-leaning voters didn't show up because it's a midterm, Ada County voted 48% against a "sanctity of marriage" amendment. Ada County only voted 45% for Obama. Boise and fundamentalism just don't go together.  


[ Parent ]
i'd really
like to be able to create a map of 50 new states that are made like that.

for example, splitting california into 3 + a northern part going to oregon and an eastern part to nevada

getting rid of nj, combining MA and RI, as well as W. NH with VT , E NH with Maine

obviously combine the dakotas

upstate and downstate new york, W and E. PA, get rid of KY (E part to WV, Louisville to IN, W part to TN)

etc.

i wish Dave's app had something for the whole country like that.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)


[ Parent ]
Hey
RI deserves to be its own state, we have a unique history.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
IS, I have a question for you.
What do you think of the new Chair of the ID Dem Party?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!



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