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FL-Sen: Rep. Connie Mack (R) Expected to Announce Bid Tomorrow - or Maybe Not?

by: DavidNYC

Thu Mar 24, 2011 at 1:57 PM EDT


That's Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV to his friends:

Florida Rep. Connie Mack is expected to announce he's running for U.S. Senate Friday.

A release is billing the 10 a.m. rollout at the county courthouse in Ft. Myers as a "major announcement regarding the 2012 race . . . against liberal incumbent Bill Nelson."

Mack will be the third official Republican to enter the campaign, following former Col. Mike McCalister and Senate President Mike Haridopolos.

I'm personally a bit surprised to see Mack get in this early, but maybe he thinks he can kinda-sorta clear the field this way (and dry up the stumbling Haridopolos's fundraising, if it hasn't already done so on its own). But despite his natural advantages, he's not a perfect conservative, and the teabaggers always sniff blood.

UPDATE: WHOA! Stop the presses! Literally! Josh Kraushaar is tweeting that Mack will NOT be running, and, believe it or not, that his big announcement tomorrow will consist of an endorsement of Haridopolos:

Top FL GOP source says Mack NOT running for Senate, likely running for re-election instead...

Buzz is that he will be endorsing Haridopolos at announcement tomorrow

UPDATE 2: Ugh, jeez. Kraushaar takes it all back.
DavidNYC :: FL-Sen: Rep. Connie Mack (R) Expected to Announce Bid Tomorrow - or Maybe Not?
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FL-Sen: Rep. Connie Mack (R) Expected to Announce Bid Tomorrow - or Maybe Not? | 72 comments
Huh?
Is the Florida GOP becoming as much of a clusterf*ck as Florida Dems? Has he been included in any polls? Can he really beat Bill Nelson?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
You know where to look
If you want the answer to the second question:

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

[ Parent ]
I dug down...
And found a M-D poll from over a month ago. Nelson was ahead 45-40.

Fortunately PPP will do a fresh poll this weekend, and hopefully they'll test Nelson vs. Mack and we'll get a better sense of what's really happening. I'm hoping that Florida voters are experiencing the same "buyers' remorse" with Rick Scott that Michigan and Wisconsin are enduring with their craptastic new Governors.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
PPP tested him last time they were there
Nelson was up on him, 45-40. He was the second strongest of the 5 Republicans they polled, after Jeb Bush (the only one who had a lead on Nelson.) A lot of his name rec probably comes from his father, Connie Mack III, a popular political figure who held this Senate seat before Nelson won it in 2000.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I do sense Mack would be an upgrade over Haridopolos.
Without actually knowing that much about him. He doesn't seem to be as scandal-ridden.  
[ Parent ]
PPP
Had Nelson up 8 in December.

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

[ Parent ]
Whoops
The one I was looking at was Mason Dixon.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
But there are a number of new voters...
In Florida who probably don't know who Mack's father is/was.

One constant problem in these formerly fast growing states is that as newcomers arrive, they're more likely to bring their political customs with them than adapt to their new home state's politics.

I especially see it here in Nevada as a former Californian. Even though there are still a number of differences, slowly but surely California's constantly turbulent politics is creeping its way into Carson City and Las Vegas.

Since the last time Bill Nelson really faced a competitive race was 2000, he certainly needs to spend some time getting to know all the Floridians who have moved there since then. But at the same time, Connie Mack would be foolish to count on his famous last name when folks who moved to Miami or Orlando from New York or Chicago 6 or 7 years ago have no clue who his dad is.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I mentioned this the other day...
...or at least a similar thought.

it applies to all levels of service (Senate, guv, Congress) and for congressme/women, they need to do it in fast growing districts more frequently than other.  And NOT wait for re-districting.

That said, nelson starts off from a very good spot.  Any advantage Mack gets from his father is offset by the advantage nelson gets from being, well, Senator Bill Nelson.  

[ Parent ]
Why do you think Bachmann is such a nut
She's gotta make the nightly news or else all the new implants in her district won't know who she is.  :)
[ Parent ]
actually
BOTH state party's are in clusterf*ck mode but i have high hopes now that rod smith is our new state chairman(let's see how he fundraises, it can't be worse than karen thurman)
[ Parent ]
Why is he announcing on a Friday?

More candidates, more more more
Let's really see what we can do, 5 candidates, maybe 10.  I hope the whole GOP house dleegation hops in.

With haridopolis supposedly being a really good fundraiser and Mack polling well, this could be quite the primary.  

And its a late primary too, isn't it?  if so I pity the poor Floridians when w/r/t political ads in Sumemr/Fall 2012, they might not even have shows on TV just 30 minute political ads over and over...

after last years
scott v what's his face and meek v the other rich guy, i can't imagine this could get worse than that.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Are you a betting man?
With the potential for a closer race in 2012 for president (and Florida possibly becoming more important) I could definitely see it getting worse.

At least (most of) FL is better than philly in one respect.  In any given election year, I have to watch about 4.6 billion ads for candidates in other states (thank god for Philly being a central market for DE/PA/NJ).  

It could be worse, I suppose NJ could have their governor's races in even numbered years...

[ Parent ]
you nailed it
here(in fla)it will be worse in the presidential year(and yes, last year was pretty bad with our 'criminal governor' and his MILLIONS
[ Parent ]
Primary's at the end of August.

[ Parent ]
i live here in FLA
don't underestimate this guy; he could win
Yup
Still, Nelson starts as favorite.
[ Parent ]
it will be ALL about obama
nelson will be almost an afterthought; obama will lead the ticket(either up or down); nelson is pretty much the perfect milquetoast candidate(he strikes fear in no one BUT he is also not really hated by anyone either)
[ Parent ]
Presidential race will play a big part
But it won't be all about Obama.
[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure that...
"its all about the benjamins, baby".  That or Puff Daddy has eben lying to me all this time LOL.
[ Parent ]
not as much as you would think
because BOTH sides will be spending obscene amounts of cash on both the presidential and senatorial races here(both races will approach 'saturation' levels); i should add that rick scott is actually a godsend to our side(who'd thunk that?)
[ Parent ]
yes it will
watch; IF our voters turnout, we win in a close race(fla is a 50/50 state)and rick scott is helping to motivate our side(he is not trying to do that but he is awaking the sleeping giant here currently with his actions in the lege)
[ Parent ]
You don't think Nelson
Will outperform the president? That would be unusual.
[ Parent ]
I'd wager Nelson at least overperforms Obama by 5
Heck, I could see Obama win by 3 and Nelson by 13. It depends on the GOP candidates.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
It wouldn't be unusual
Nelson has appeal in parts of the Panhandle and Central Florida, places where Obama will have lower numbers. If Obama wins the state again and Nelson is re-elected, I'd be surprised if Nelson's victory wasn't a few points more than Obama's.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
That was was my point
I was suggesting it would be unusual if Nelson didn't outperform Obama.  
[ Parent ]
you miss the point
entirely; this race is about party(ONLY); IF our side turns out, we win; nelson is a non-factor(democrats here don't even like nelson); win or lose, it will be all about TURNOUT(and that, my friend, will be decided by the TOP of the ticket)
[ Parent ]
I don't miss the point at all
I just disagree with you.
[ Parent ]
you do
miss my point entirely and you remain wrong about this issue(you will see come next november that i know the politics of my home state better than you); have a nice day
[ Parent ]
Most tiresome argument in the blogosphere
You live there so you know more. I live in the UK and I dare say I know more about American politics than 99% of the US population. Your point is you think that either Obama and Nelson will both win or both lose because turnout will depend entirely on the top of the ticket. While I agree the presidential race will play a large part I just cannot agree it is the only factor. We are talking about a two-term incumbent here with positive job approval and strength in areas of the state Obama doesn't. Have a nice day yourself.
[ Parent ]
Nelson outperformed Gore in 2000 (51% to 48.8%)
Also, there's a lot of older Democrats (and Republicans) that like Nelson and can't stand Obama.  
[ Parent ]
Who did Nelson
run against in 2000?
[ Parent ]
Bill McCollum 1.0
That was back when he was an up-and-coming Congressman from Orlando, and one of the leading figures in the Clinton impeachment trial. Nelson won by a few points in a race that was very much overshadowed by presidential race and recount.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Ah yes,
It escaped me. McCollum must have been really young when he was first elected to the house back in 1980.
[ Parent ]
If Mack wins the nomination, I suspect this one's a legit toss-up
With Haridopolos or any Tea Partier, though, this could be as good as Likely D. Nelson's not in a weak position at all, but Obama may be weak atop the ballot and Mack is a strong candidate. I suspect the GOP primary will be quite costly, however.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Nelson and Obama
will be facing that nastiest of charges in 2012 in Florida.  "Medicare cuts"--that issue killed the democrats in Florida in 2010.  

That issue was so potent in 2010 that an HMO executive was elected Governor.  I still shake my head at that.  The ads write themselves.

Medicare cuts

Cutting senior medigap benefits

Seniors not getting access to medical care

Older voters dumped the democrats in 2010 and what exactly will change that in 2012?  

I don't see any evidence that happened in Florida on
a large scale. Ted Deutsch had no trouble winning in a heavily senior district. Sure, Ron Klein lost ground on the Senior vote, a little. Sink lost less. The electorate in Florida was just older than it was in 2008, and more conservative, as fewer non-white and younger voters showed up, a problem I don't see happening in 2012.  
[ Parent ]
Rubio won the over
65 vote 50-33-17.  That's a pretty impressive number in a state where so many seniors have been D  party loyalists

Scott won the seniors by 51-47.  He lost the 18-29 vote by a large margin.  The seniors carried the day for him.

Not every senior in Florida lives in Broward-Palm and MiamiDade county.  

The seniors carried the day for the GOP in Florida.  

[ Parent ]
They'll regret it immensely
They are already with Scott.

And in 2012, everyone will carry the day for the Dems.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Like I said,
Obama will win Florida if the Republican candidate only wins the Senior vote 51-47.
[ Parent ]
Umm
McCain won Seniors 53-45 in 2008, so Sink actually improved on Obama's numbers. She just lost because the seniors showed up a lot better than the young people. So no, this is not a state where seniors have been "D party loyalists." If anything, the fact that Sink et al. held seniors together as well as she did relative to Obama disproves your theory.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Right on!
Yes, in 20-freaking-10, Sink outperformed Obama amongst Seniors and in the panhandle.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Thanks, nico. I'm not sure rdelbov actually looks up anything before typing......
It's good to look things up first!

Some of the Republicans here seldom do that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
reminds about a time I had to comment on RS
When Scott Brown won, Moe Lane put a picture up of the results map and said Coakley only managed to win one CD and it was Barney Frank in Boston.  Nope, just because he's gay doesn't mean he reprents Boston and any bozo with the two maps in front of them would have saw Dem pwnage in the Western Mass CD's.
[ Parent ]
The GOP will be cutting medicare even more..
...with even a vote on converting it to a voucher program.  Obama can run as the guy who SAVED medicare.

Besides, Nelson put a loophole in the bill to protect FL medicare beneficiaries.  He can run on that.

[ Parent ]
True
In the modern era, the GOP exists for one major reason: to show everyone why it's deleterious to society to vote Republican.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately
a couple of elections down the road the voters forget all about why it's deleterious and vote the crooks back in. Lather, rinse, repeat.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
In FL's case
Rick Scott is so obviously sleazy and shady that I think the other Republicans will try to avoid him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Hopefully, the fact that
Florida elected a crook as Governor who is continuing to be an embarassment to the state will tilt things in Democrats' favor.

Also, Nelson put in some key exemptions for retirees.

Finally, I thought you said you'd only comment on redistricting.  You disappoint me.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Also...
They didn't elect an HMO Executive, they elected a thief who stole from Medicare.

Medicare cuts were only in Medicare Advantage, a program that is a corporate giveaway.  Medicare Parts A and B are still as intact as ever.

Seniors will stil have the same access as they had before, only with more choice and less being ripped off.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Mack Not Running?
http://twitter.com/#!/HotlineJosh

HotlineJosh Josh Kraushaar
Top FL GOP source says Mack NOT running for Senate, likely running for re-election instead...

HotlineJosh Josh Kraushaar
Buzz is that he will be endorsing Haridopolos at announcement tomorrow



"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
I'd like that
if only to make Politico look bad.  Additionally, I'd guess he'd been the strongest GOP candidate other than Jeb

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Somebody will look silly tomorrow

[ Parent ]
Win the morning
lose the afternoon.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
Mixed messages from Kraushaar
http://twitter.com/HotlineJosh...

Why that venue to endorse somebody else?

[ Parent ]
Allen West
Has anyone mentioned him for senate? He'd have no chance in the general, but that's never stopped anybody. I actually think he would be a favorite in the primary, especially if he had two or more opponents to split the non-crazy vote.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
Only if he's endorced by his big brother
Adam

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
Freshman House members
pretty much never run for the Senate. I guess an exception would be an at-large state, but Florida is clearly not one of those.
[ Parent ]
If there's one thing
Allen West is not its conventional. I don't think the normal rules of politics are all that applicable to Allen West. That combined with the widely held view that he'll be in big trouble in a presidential year plus all the talk that FL-22 will become more democratic, I don't think its out of the realm of possibility he takes a shot at a senate race.
[ Parent ]
Oh, I definitely think West could win the GOP primary here
And, I happen to think he still has a shot in his re-election bid. From what I've heard him say, though, he actually seems more interested in being someone's VP.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Woah,
I hope this is true, the update. If it's a big, expensive three-way match between LeMeiux, Haridopolos, and Hasner, that isn't resolved until September 2012, and Nelson ends up running against Haridopolos, this is one less race we'll have to worry about.  
Kraushaar certainly did jump the gun
Forget tomorrow, he looks silly tonight!
You know, I found Kraushaar bad enough on Twitter that I actually...
...unfollowed him.  Only time I've ever done that.  As a rule I try to follow a bunch of the political reporters, especially ones that seem to have scoops, so Kraushaar was in that category initially, but he often had offbase analyses and otherwise didn't add anything.

This to me just has me shaking my head.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What do you think of
the GOP field?  Haridopolis clearly is not going to jump out cause of this.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Now with Mack actually out, it looks very weak......
I feel pretty good about Nelson's reelection, I would even against Mack, but now even moreso.

I think we're going to have a good election next year.  No wave to get the House back, but good for a non-wave year, and that includes Nelson winning, perhaps comfortably.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
FL
Good lord at this news mess.

Why in the world would Mack announce on a Friday though?

29/D/Male/NY-01

SPRING BREAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ Parent ]
Well...
Rehberg announced the Friday before the Super Bowl.
[ Parent ]
Maybe he wanted to do it before watching Duke got drilled
/end gratuitous off-topicism
[ Parent ]
Mack NOT running
FL-Sen: Rep. Connie Mack (R) Expected to Announce Bid Tomorrow - or Maybe Not? | 72 comments

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