Told You So

http://forum.skyscraperpage.co...

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 21:11:34 PM UTC

Huh?

... Why bother with moving the boundaries at all in New Hampshire!? They're almost exactly the same and completely within the allowable limit.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 21:13:29 PM UTC

Allowable deviation is 5 at best.

We can't split precincts in Dave's App which is why most proposals here have three-digit deviarions. Actual plans ahould have low single-digits.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

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by: Twohundertseventy @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 21:25:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

...

Allowable deviation is not 5 at best.

The Gaffney Principle (Gaffney v. Cummings) allows a 7.83 percent deviation in congressional districts with a 9.9 percent deviation established if there is a justification for the difference (White v. Regester).

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 21:34:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I thought Kirkpatrick vs. Preissler

establishes that there must not be variance in population at all unless the state has a good reason for it. Doesn't what you're talking about apply to State Legislatures only?

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

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by: Twohundertseventy @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 21:45:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is wrong

You are getting state legislative districts mixed up with congressional districts. See Karcher v. Daggett - congressional districts generally have to be equipopulous, unless the legislature can show that the deviation is necessary to achieve a legitimate state policy.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 21:59:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, that one upheld the case I cited,

as far as I know.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

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by: Twohundertseventy @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 22:06:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep, yep, yep...

They may not even have to change the map, unless there's a tiny town to be moved that can get NH to exactly 0 population deviance.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 21:31:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The allowable limit

Is generally zero. There are ways around that, but generally speaking, if the legislature could have drawn a zero-difference map, then it has to justify why it hasn't.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 21:52:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Larger deviations exist. Its most common

where no one contests the lines.  Why sue to move 250 people in NH?  I personally think they could get away without changing lines as no one sue over them.  

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by: rdelbov @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 23:19:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes. But if someone in the over-populated district

was an asshole and had fun suing people he could do it and have the lines redrawn. So they mostly don't take the odds.

Also, check out for example CA's district. I just clicked on five of them on Wikipedia and they all had 639,088 people. Do you really think anyone would voluntarily do the painful job or drawing the lines exactly to ensure population equality +-0 if they weren't required to do so?

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

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by: Twohundertseventy @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 23:34:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A federal court did refuse to overturn PA's map on a 18 person

variation so I think zero or 1 person is not a set limit.  Its a small number but I can't exactly say what it is.

MS has a federal court draw maps with 100 person variations while federal court in SC did a 2 person variation map.  So 254 might be pushing it but who knows?

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 00:05:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You have it wrong

A district court did indeed find that a 19-person deviation was not permissible in Veith v. Jubelirer. (The case later went up to the SCOTUS on different grounds.) See the analysis starting on p. 5.

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by: DavidNYC @ Thu Mar 24, 2011 at 18:41:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow, that's funny

254 people, a deviation of 0.04%. What are the odds?

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 21:24:44 PM UTC

Detroit

You can't make Detroit a single district, because Hamtramck and Highland Park are entirely surrounded by Detroit. Even if you had a single district with those two + most of Detroit, it could potentially help Dems by shifting the very blue areas of MI13 and MI14 outside Detroit to other districts. For example, there would probably be enough left over to give Dingell a deep-blue district with just Monroe and southside areas of Wayne, freeing up uber-blue Ann Arbor to obliterate some other Republican-held district. (Washtenaw, Jackson, and Ingham put together are a little too big to combine in a single mid-state Democratic sink.)

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 21:28:57 PM UTC

They would love to

combine Clarke and Conyers but would never get away with it. There is enough black population to support two VRA districts. I've always thought it would be Peters v. Levin and that seems almost certain now. They will give Peters' Republican areas to McCotter, Miller, and Rogers, and make a Democratic vote-sink in Oakland/Macomb that Levin is almost certain to win due to seniority and his reliably liberal record.

As for Massachusetts, I wondered if that would happen...that no district would be the obvious loser. The two most underpopulated districts are in the far west (Olver) and east (Keating). Unless they retire, senior members almost never got screwed in redistricting...though Ben Gilman and John LaFalce in NY were exceptions ten years ago, so there is little precedent for cutting out Olver. Then again, isn't there a lot of history in the Cape/Nantucket having their own beachy district? (More so than for two western Mass districts, anyway.) Lynch or Capuano should announce against Brown and then they can cut out a Boston seat.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

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by: Nathaniel90 @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 22:44:38 PM UTC

The Senate Chair

Senator Stanley Rosenberg is from Western MA and is dedicated to maintaining two districts there, likely by moving population in the Worcester area into the 2nd, and cutting East Longmeadow and the area south of Springfield off into the first.

The House chair is from South of Boston and is close to Lynch personally.

The most likely match-ups are:

1. Eliminating Markey's 7th if he can be persuaded to run for Senate and partitioning it between the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th districts.

2. Merging the 9th and tenth with the minority precincts exercised from the 9th. This may get you a majority-minority 8th, but its also impossible to do without making the 7th and 8th even greater Democratic vote sinks than they now are. Its likely Frank would have lost under such a map in 2010, though the 4th would still be D+7 or so.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 23:35:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Markey will be 66

with 36 years of House seniority. Why on earth would he run an uphill race against newbie Scott Brown? And why wouldn't they just get rid of Keating if the well-connected legislators have ties to Lynch and Olver?

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

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by: Nathaniel90 @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 01:05:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which is why it won't be the 7th

But not cutting the seventh causes chaos elseware. It needs more people. But so do the 5th and 6th. The only three seats the 5th can gain it from are the 2nd, 6th, and 7th. The 6th can only gain it from the 5th and 7th.

Complicating matters further, Tierney is by far the most endangered incumbent but most of the territory bordering the 6th, and all of the towns that from a community of interest perspective would be added are Republican territory or what passes for it. The path of least resistance - sending the 5th and 6th south, the 7th further south into Brookline and Cambridge, and the 8th into minority precincts of the 9th, creates a a 70% or so Obama district and an 85% one. And it creates a GOP vote sink in the 6th, which while Obama still would probably have won it 56-43 or so, would have gone for th entire GOP statewide ticket in 2010.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 02:23:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Can't really get rid of Keating

He "resides" in the northernmost reaches of MA-10 (he actually lives in MA-04), and you can't really draw any other incumbent into that district except Lynch. If you do combine MA-09 and MA-10, that probably eliminates Lynch, because 80% of the territory would be Keating's. I don't see that happening though, because I don't think they will link inner-city Boston to Cape Cod.

I'm beginning to think it's going to be Niki Tsongas and John Olver facing off in a district that runs along the northern tier of the state, unless someone voluntarily steps aside.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 05:16:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Keating

Has no base except Quincy. You remove that from it, and you end up with a race to win the Cape.

It is true that a Boston candidate would be badly placed but so would Keating. On the other-hand either one would be very vulnerable to a challenge from someone with a base on the Cape would be very well-placed to deal a deathblow to a weakened Keating or Lynch. Senate President Therese Murray's district is located in Barnstable.

As for the 1st/2nd issue. There are a couple things going on.

Olver is already facing a "challenge" from former State Senator Andrea Nuciforo who has a lot of friends on Beacon Hill, probably more than Olver right now, not least Stan Rosenberg in the Senate who represented a neighboring district in the senate. Its widely suspected he is running as part of ploy to allow the Senate to preserve the first district for Nuciforo, as an Olver retirement would lead to it being dismantled. This way its likely to survive.

Adding support to these suspicions is the fact that Nuciforo has more COH than Olver. The next filing period will be interesting to see if thats still the case.

In any event, none of the people involved, including the Chairman of the Committee who represents a Western MA district, has any interest in creating a situation in which Western MA is represented by a Boston area or Lowell area congressman. Rosenberg has repeated stated that he is determined to preserve two districts in the Western part of the state. If Tsongas is drawn into a district with the Berkshires, it will be as an ejection seat. There is almost zero chance that the current committee will draw her into the first otherwise.

Nonetheless, this is hardly a guarantee of what will happen. Rosenberg can be overruled. But a geographical study of who is on the Committee and in the leadership reveal a very Western MA and South Boston-heavy panel. The Lowell area, North Shore, and Quincy area are underrepresented. I think you are on to something with Tsongas being one of the most likely targets. She has no friends in the legislature, and her seat could be easily partitioned between the 1st, 3rd, 6th, and 7th, solving most of the problems. Lawrence can be handed off to the 6th to anchor Tierney there.

But again such a map would not set-up a Tsongas v. anyone battle, not unless she wanted to be crushed and likely not break 35%.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

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by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 05:36:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I just took a look at the Keating/Lynch option

If you do not split any towns and run a narrow district up the South Shore, you can get a seat that is 80% Keating's and 20% Lynch's. The Cape and Islands will be about 35-40% of any district they are in, and while I agree that they aren't really a base for Keating, he just fought a very high-profile campaign there so the voters know who he is. The rest of the map actually comes out OK, for Mass standards. Capuano takes in some of Norfolk County, Frank gets a lot of Plymouth County, and McGovern reaches down to New Bedford. Everyone else shifts east, with Neal going all the way to Attleboro.

I wonder how close Murray is to Lynch and Keating. A district that forces them together would be the perfect opening for her to run for Congress, capturing the Cape as the other two split the Boston area vote. However, she is arguably the second most powerful person in MA right now (after DiLeo) and might not want to become a freshman in the minority party. A Congressman from the Cape would make everything easier--that's why I was rooting for O'Leary in the primaries last year.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 05:54:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lynch is not opposed to it

Provided he has an exit. Rumors had it he has indicated he is willing make a run against Brown provided he has a clear primary. But he doesn't want to deal with a liberal version of the tea party thing against someone like Setti Warren.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

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by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 06:24:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Warren could beat Lynch

Democrats are pretty PO'ed at Lynch, although he does still have a base of white ethnic support and would play well in the Worcesters and Lowells of the world. But I can see Warren cleaning up in much of Boston, out west, and in the suburbs, which is where Democratic primaries are won.

Lynch is probably the toughest general election matchup for Brown. I don't know enough about Warren to make up my mind on him, although Newton is not the best place to run a statewide campaign from.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 06:43:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No Exit

At this point no power broker on Beacon Hill could guarantee Lynch a free pass for anything. He's pissed off too many people.

Lynch could win a statewide primary in a crowded field where liberals/progressives had multiple viable candidates, but in a this context that could lead to a lot of Metrowest and Pioneer Valley votes for Brown, which is exactly what Dems can't afford.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 17:52:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Love Murray

Terry Murray that is.

She is the most powerful person in Massachusetts. DeLeo thinks he is, but no one in the State House thinks he has more clout than the gentel lady from Plymouth.

I don't think Murray will ever give up her current position for a seat in Congress. The reality is that she is far more influential than she ever, ever could be in Congress.

Sincerely, Padeco
President of the Terry Murray Fan Club.

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by: Padeco @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 13:03:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd Worry About Frank In That Scenario

The nice thing (for Dems) about having Lynch's district there, annoyed as Dems can be with Lynch, is that it eats up a lot of those conservative inland Plymouth County towns. Lynch has more appeal there than Frank (or Keating, or Capuano) would. And a district with that much of Boston plus Brockton plus Milton is unlikely to turn red anyway.

Frank has nothing to worry about as long as he's got a district with Newton and Brookline at one end and New Bedford at the other, plus a couple of helper towns in Sharon and Wellesley. (Try and throw Needham in there - Lynch will not miss it, trust me.) But take New Bedford and its Dem-friendly neighbors (Fairhaven and Dartmouth, plus the part of Fall River now in the 4th) out and replace them with hostile places like the Bridgewaters and things start to change. The ones Frank has now went strongly for Bielat last year.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Thu Mar 24, 2011 at 03:44:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No Way

Western Mass will not be drawn into a district that includes Lowell.

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by: Padeco @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 12:59:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

We're talking about the same people who have combined Newton and New Bedford, Worcester and Fall River, and pushed a Springfield district inside of I-495. And now many people are suggesting they put Cape Cod and Dorchester in the same district. Nothing is sacred, and for many people in Boston, Lowell may as well be Western Mass. They lump everything more than 20 miles west of Boston into that category.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 19:01:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

....

Rosenberg will not draw a district that lumps these two together. Lowell is the 4th largest city in the State. If Lowell is drawn into Western MA then Western MA loses its rep.

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by: Padeco @ Thu Mar 24, 2011 at 13:03:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haven't Tried That One Yet...

As a matter of party and ideology, the Five College towns and the small towns of the Upper Connecticut Valley are, believe it or not, a reasonable political substitute for the Metrowest communities that keep MA-05 just outside of the "swing district" zone.

But I don't think you can quite get out there from Lowell/Lawrence in a reasonable way, as there's too much unfriendly territory in the way. (I suppose you could break up the Merrimack Valley as it used to be split up and give Lawrence to someone else.)  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 19:38:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mass Options

I've done this map a dozen or so times. I should probably share some of them at some point. I had some ideas...

The one I think I like the best so far....

Tierney, with scandal issues and medium seniority, is pushed out. North Shore goes to Markey. He may not be happy about that, but he can keep his home in Malden along with Medford, Melrose, Everett, Winthrop, and Revere. He's not going to lose to a Republican in such a district and is unlikely to lose in a primary. If you don't need a minority-majority district you could throw (heavily Hispanic) Chelsea in there too. If Capuano leaves to run for Senate, you could give Markey all or part of Somerville. Tsongas picks up another Essex County town or two she doesn't want, but she's still got room for a Metrowest burb or two she'd very much want because Olver has to move east to take a hostile Lowell-area town or two.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 17:48:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm a little confused.

How is it possible for Ohio and New York to each lose 2 seats and gain population since 2000 but Michigan only loses 1 seat and is the only state to actually lose population?

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

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by: JonathanMN @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 23:31:43 PM UTC

MI

MI was on the verge of 16 seats last time. Notice that its target in 2000 was 663k. MA's was 634k, etc.

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 23:35:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

even worse

see the alabama paradox

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

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by: jncca @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 00:17:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's too small to lose 2 seats

and only barely lost 1 seat in 2000. Ohio and New York, however, were both on the verge of losing more seats in 2000.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

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by: Nathaniel90 @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 01:05:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nothing jumps out at me

so who gets chopped in MA?

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 00:47:24 AM UTC

Whoever they want to chop

They = Robert DeLeo and Therese Murray.

We invented Gerrymandering here.  Expect to see an exquisite execution coming soon.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 03:15:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suspect

A "fair fight" district between Lynch and Keating which is basically the white ethnic parts of Boston, Quincy, and the Cape.

As for the Chairs:

Rosenberg is from the Amherst area.

Moran is from Brighton.

Leadership
Deleo is Boston
Murray is the Cape

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

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by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 05:07:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Deleo is actually from Winthrop

Which is just outside of Boston to the East, but is is currently in the Markey's 7th district, but may be moved into the North Shore based 6th under some redistricting scenarios.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 12:11:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MI

Methinks G. Peters has other things "on the agenda"...
I've heard a few blurbs fomenting about his other aspirations.  

I'd love to see Peters and Levin in a heated primary and Rep. Marty Knollenberg (on Redistricting) take the reins.
It seems that Michigan is poised to boot D-Stabs out and see some other gains in local elections too.

MI-07, MI-06, MI-01, WV-02

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by: Whizzer White @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 01:08:53 AM UTC

Not after

this outrage by the state legislature and the governor.  Stabenow is in a lean D race against whoever runs.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 01:14:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What would Gary Peters do?

nt

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 03:20:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably run for Oakland County Executive...

Or maybe retire and get ready for a campaign for attorney general or governor in 2014; he's already run statewide once in 2002, for AG.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

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by: koolbens @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 05:05:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

#4? Really?

I can't ever recall a time when Detroit was larger than Philly.

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by: davybaby @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 03:57:39 AM UTC

.

It was never larger than Philadelphia. It was, however, larger than Los Angeles. In 1920, 1930, and 1940 it was the 4th largest city (after New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia) and in 1950, 1960, and 1970 it was displaced to fifth by Los Angeles. In 1980 Houston surpassed Detroit; in 1990 San Diego surpassed Detroit; in 2000 Phoenix, Dallas, and San Antonio pushed Detroit to tenth. Now, Detroit is 19th as it was surpassed by San Jose, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Austin, Columbus, Fort Worth, Louisville, and Charlotte.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...

http://forum.skyscraperpage.co...

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 04:25:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

#4

If I remember correctly, in 1950, the rankings went NYC, Chicago, Philly, Detroit.  It wasn't until the 60's that Lost Angeles moved in, I believe.

25, independent liberal, MI-08

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by: MetroGnome @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 04:27:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Close

...but no cigar.

It was the 50s that saw Los Angeles move past Detroit.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 04:30:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In the 60s

between the '60 and '70 Censuses, California surpassed New York to become the most populous state.

L.A. had surpassed Detroit by 1950. It was closing in in the '30s and '40s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 05:40:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

2nd Smallest?

The 13th, and 14th are both smaller than Wyoming, which has a population of 563,626.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 04:31:58 AM UTC

.

Scratch that extra comma.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 04:32:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

LA-02

is almost definitely the smallest.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

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by: westkydem @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 04:36:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

Just pointing out that Wyoming (which was the example he used) is larger.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 04:51:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Detroit

Just so folks now, Detroit surrounds two small enclave cities that combine to have a population of 34,199.  Add that to Detroit, and you get 747,976.  Given the rules against splitting cities and such here in Michigan, Detroit couldn't be squeezed into one district.

25, independent liberal, MI-08

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by: MetroGnome @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 04:37:12 AM UTC

Not to mention the Grosse Pointes and Harper Woods

which aren't technically enclaves, but they might as well be. I don't see what purpose would be served by attaching them to Macomb.

And, on an even more important "not-to-mention" note, the Detroit metro area still has more than enough African Americans for two VRA districts, so consolidating MI-13 and MI-14 isn't in the cards quite yet.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

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by: borodino21 @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 05:39:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Michigan

People seem to forget that Michigan still has about the same black population as it did in 2000.  The only difference is that they are more diffused, particularly in Metro Detroit.  I was going through an interactive map that the Detnews.com provided, and you've got more majority black suburbs than ever before, and huge black gains in neighboring communities.

25, independent liberal, MI-08

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by: MetroGnome @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 05:58:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Seems to be the general pattern

the VRA districts are very depopulated, while neighboring majority-white districts are seeing increasing numbers of African-Americans.

---

by: skaje @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 09:51:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, that seems to be the theme for this census

Forget about white flight, these communities are experiencing black flight now.  As African Americans are increasingly either comfortable moving into white suburbs or forming suburban communities of their own, those who have the resources to do so are leaving.  After all, black families want the same thing as white families: good schools and a safe place to raise their kids, so this should come as no surprise.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 12:24:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

....especially in Detroit, as the housing crisis has made suburban living more affordable for Detroit families.  

The 2nd VRA district in Detroit could have a suburban focus centered on Southfield, a suburb with a strong African-American community, including Oak Park, Royal Oak Township, and up to Pontiac, a Detroit in miniature.  Maybe there will be two Oakland-Wayne districts due to VRA compliance.  And the most devious part of this plan would be the inclusion of the heavily Republican area in between Southfield and Pontiac - because that's where Gary Peters lives.  

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by: Bort @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 12:39:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think I can safely say that the GOP will stack and pack AA's

into two Detroit based seats.  I look forward to more Michigan maps.  I am inclined right now to think the GOP will attach southern third of MacComb to Wayne county.  That seems to work with the current numbers.

---

by: rdelbov @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 14:44:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tierney

There have been a lot of conversations from people (both on this site, and here in MA) who say they think it will be Tierney. Under most circumstances I'd have to agree, but geography is reality in this case.

Tierney lives in the coastal city of Salem. In order to draw Salem into any district you would need to draw in the cities of Lynn, Saugus, Swampscott and Marblehead - at least. These are populated areas which will be a Tierney base - which incumbent congressman would want to see their district absorb Tierney and his base?? Furthermore, what happens to the majority of towns and cities north of Salem? They will not be drawn into Niki's district because that makes her district dramatically redder (and forces her to lose MUCH of her territory west of Lowell).

I personally believe the Tsongas and Tierney districts are the two safest in MA. Ironically, this is then followed by Keatings (you really can't gerrymander it given the shape of the Cape). Were Keating not "based" out of Quincy in the northern tip of the 10th I would say he was as safe as the other two.

Ironic, isn't it? The two newest members, along with the one that is carrying baggage, are the safest?

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by: Padeco @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 13:17:27 PM UTC

The 1st and 2nd merge really makes the most sense geographically

Keeping the 2nd district as it is means expanding the 1st either into the Lowell burbs, the Worcester burbs, or Metrowest.  In such a map the traditional core of the district (ie. West of Worcester County) would only be about half the the population.  However, I think political considerations will be paramount and we will get some convoluted map eliminating whomever the powers that be pick to get rid of (or whoever runs for senate).

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 15:59:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Harder Than You Think

1. Western Mass is just a little too big for one district.

2. Consolidating all of Western Mass into one district, to the extent possible, shifts the districts based in Worcester and Lowell uncomfortably to the right. (One solution to this would be to keep the 2nd looking roughly like it does now and send the Worcester district out west to cover most of what I refer to as "Baja Vermont.")

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 18:11:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I tried combining Neal and McGovern last night

You can actually just barely do it, if you exclude all the Worcester suburbs except Millbury and Auburn and everything north and west of Springfield. That district looks OK, although all the Boston-area districts have to push further south. Not likely to happen because Springfield and Worcester would flip (although neither is well-represented on the commission), but at least one more scenario to consider.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 19:03:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Worcester and Springfield

They briefly considered a Worcester-Springfield district in 1991-92 to try to ease out old and scandal-plagued Joe Early in favor of Richard Neal, who'd have been an ideal fit for both cities at the time.

The main problem with this set up apart from Worcester and Springfield themselves throwing a fit is that no one else is going to want the Blackstone Valley. (It's alien territory for everyone else and it's turning red. A Valley-based or Worcester-based Dem could do respectably, and to an extent they know Neal since he's represented most of the Valley for 20 years now, but it'd a major headache for any Boston-area pol, especially if they're already taking in some pretty red towns just to the east of there.)

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 19:21:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, McGovern would hate that plan

The Valley and everything else outside of Worcester in that district would be new territory for him.

Also, I loved seeing MA-03 as the fastest growing Massachusetts district! The growth is probably in the Attleboro to Fall River area, since Worcester isn't growing particularly fast.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 19:59:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looking Forward...

...to seeing the data. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd guess the growth in MA-03 would be strongest along the Pike, in Marlboro, Westboro, Southboro, Hopkinton, Ashland - maybe Northboro and Shrewsbury too.

I'd think McGovern, who's got a seat on Rules, would be able to at least prevent getting stuck with a district where he had a significantly heightened risk of losing to a Republican. ( He's about a click or two to the left of his constituency as it is, which isn't a huge problem since he's generally affable, well-connected and beloved in Worcester itself.) And I think that's a big reason why Beacon Hill doesn't want the geographically expedient Neal-Olver showdown that leaves McGovern (and Tsongas) with new unfriendly turf.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 20:31:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, I'm not sure if I can imagine

places like Seekonk and South Attleboro growing fast...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Thu Mar 24, 2011 at 09:27:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I Saw The Numbers

My memory isn't perfect but the most salient points about MA-03...
* Worcester added about 9K new people.
* Most of the Metrowest-ish towns grew at a rate faster than the state as a whole.
* Fall River lost population, more than any other town/city in the state.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Thu Mar 24, 2011 at 13:29:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

6th and 7th

They could draw Markey's district up there if Tierney agreed to walk the plank. It's not optimal as it forces a 66-year old with substantial seniority to campaign in a lot of towns he's never represented before. But if you combine the generic Dem base in Salem/Lynn with Markey's base in Malden/Medford, I couldn't see the GOP really having much of a shot, especially if you could figure out a way to draw a little bit of the existing Democratic vote sink MA-08 in as well.  

That would still leave Tsongas to have to take a couple of reddish towns. But because Olver has to move east to take a town or two in the Lowell area, her district can also add super-blue Lexington, which would make up for that.

The 7th as it exists now is a bit of a Democratic vote sink.


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 21:46:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lynn is not that Democratic

Brown lost it 53-46, and Donald Wong, running for state rep, held his own there with 41%.

The 7th is a Democratic vote sink, but as you note, the heavily Democratic parts are in the south and west and would almost certainly be eaten by the 4th and 5th. A 7th bereft of the Lexington Area and its southern end, but still holding onto to Winchester/Woburn/Stoneham + the 6th would be unfriendly turf for Markey who is a bit of an urban politician. If by some miracle Tierney stood aside, such a race against Tisei would not be so much partisan as geographic.

Its probably not unwinnable but obviously not as easy as painted.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

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by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 24, 2011 at 03:07:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

How is Wong a good example?

Wong represents two (2!) precincts in the whole city. Not a good example.

Nor is Brown - who ran in a special election.

A good example would be 2010 race for Governor - where Deval cleaned up with 54%, Baker (R) got 36%, and former-D-turned-I Cahill got 9%.

http://www.boston.com/news/spe...  

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by: Padeco @ Thu Mar 24, 2011 at 13:12:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Readers will appreciate this

http://www.malegislature.gov/D...

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by: Padeco @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 13:19:01 PM UTC

Mass Legislature Maps

Remarkably stable over time. There's a Wikipedia page about the Mass Senate that can tell you who occupied which specific seat since the 1970s. Though the lines may have shifted at the margins by a town in some cases, there's been no instances of a seat being removed and replaced by one in a totally different part of the state since then.

Also, that page highlights the total lack of any real Republican stronghold in the state. Though the Republicans have won about half the Senate seats at some point since the 70s and there are even a handful of seats the GOP has controlled more often then the Democrats have in that (Cape & Islands, the Middlesex/Norfolk/Bristol one that Scott Brown used to occupy) there's no one seat (out of 40) that Republicans have held all the time. And even those few red-tinted seats are scattered across the state.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 18:41:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Basically

He would be moving from a 53-46 Coakley seat to a 57-42 or so Brown one.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

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by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 24, 2011 at 03:10:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

MI6

Do you think Fred Upton likes to introduce himself as being from "Em-eye-six"? Upton, Fred Upton...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Wed Mar 23, 2011 at 14:01:18 PM UTC