Aren't the two reservations always separated?

If you look at the weird part of AZ-2 that extends into the middle of AZ-1, it's because the two tribes don't get along with each other, and are always placed in different districts from each other.  

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by: ajwagner @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 01:09:16 AM UTC

Not until 2001, I believe...

And yes, that was because the Hopis were in the midst of a very public dispute with the Navajos. And yes, there's a possibility the Hopis will ask to be in a separate district again.

But OTOH, they might change their minds... Especially upon looking at how the rest of the map will be drawn. (I'm still wondering if they were ever really all that eager to be drawn into Trent Franks' district.)

There were a host of law suits filed after the first IRC filed its 2001 map, and there's already talk of more law suits being filed once this IRC files its 2011 map.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 01:22:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

They were separated in the 1990s

And they will continue to be separated in this decade as well. It's not about who their congressman is; it's about having different(ostensibly non-partisan) congressional offices mediate the serious disputes that have plagued the two tribes literally for centuries (to the extent that those dispute pertain to federal law anyway).  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 03:09:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I see...

So there's still no resolution in sight?

Next time, I'll draw a map that splits them. Maybe the Hopis can go in the new AZ-09 seat?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 03:14:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There has been several major land issues that have been

resolved.  The talk of late has been that this seperation should end.  Like our American revolution with the Brits, once we sorted the big issues out we have more in common and became friends.  The land issue was the one major issue that seperated the two tribes.  There are no more votes or bills on this issue that are likely to occur.  

There is no difference between the tribes on native American issues just very particular land issues.  

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by: rdelbov @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 11:56:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So in your expert opinion...

Would this map work?

I moved the Hopi tribal lands from AZ-01 to AZ-09, then switched around some Yavapai precincts, placed Graham and Greenlee Counties back into AZ-01, then added Cochise County to AZ-01. Would this be a map that potentially pleases all sides?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 03:46:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It definitely could

At the very least, you can find a way to stick the Hopi Reservation almost anywhere. In the 90s, I think it went down some random stream to the Phoenix area.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 04:14:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I like these maps and yes

I am standing tall for Pinal county--Let this county dominate a seat.  I was not the 1st, except here, to speak up for this diverse but misunderstood area.

On a side note I believe 2001 was the 1st split of the Indian reservations.

I like this map as it keeps AZ7 a bit more D for Grijavla and yes Giffords is made a bit more secure.

Another great map for AZ from a poster here.  

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by: rdelbov @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 01:24:36 AM UTC

Thanks! Arizona will be...

Interesting to watch, especially since The IRC will be drawing the lines and 3 of the 5 commissioners are from Pima County (including the Independent Chair!). It's making me hopeful that Gabby Giffords is more likely to get an all Pima AZ-08, which will most likely make reelection easier for her next year (or make it easier for Dems to hold if Gabby retires or runs for Senate).

Of course, AZ-07 will also be a seat worth watching. Especially if The IRC doesn't draw a third minority-majority district, they may be under pressure to at least make the 7th more Latino. Latinos now comprise 29% of Arizona's population, so it'd be scandal if there were only one Latino Arizonan in Congress.

Of course, OTOH, Latinos now make up 26% of our population, and there's a good chance no Latino pol will win any of Nevada's districts next year. But then again, we don't have an independent commission drawing the lines here.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 02:05:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The three folks from

Pima county would seem to indicate both Tucson based congressman would be secure.  

Pheonix is a crap shot after you firm up Pastore and Grisjlva. The Tempe will probably be marginal but will likely stay D.  

You might do a third minority majority but you would have to really chop up Tucson and that defeats the whole idea of this bipartisan plan.  You would have to connect Tucson to the Indian reservations and that's probably a little too crazy for AZ

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by: rdelbov @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 02:28:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly...

You would have to connect Tucson to the Indian reservations and that's probably a little too crazy for AZ

I was originally looking at doing a third minority-majority district in my map, but I was finding it harder to create a third district that was totally cohesive and met the "communities of interest" standard under Prop 106, Arizona's Independent Redistricting Law. (While Prop 106 is nowhere near as stringent as California's Prop 11 and Prop 20 on mandating "respect for city and county lines", it does encourage keeping communities of interest intact.)

Still, I may try another Arizona map later this week that does include a third minority-majority district. I still think it's possible, but it will be critical to make the lines as clean as possible to avoid (any more) law suits.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 02:49:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

AZ

My third map on this post has 3 majority-minority districts, and I think they all meet the community of interest criterion. None has a VAP more than 42.4% anglo, although two of them don't have a voting-age Hispanic majority either. Basically you draw AZ9 to take in the west valley boom areas, and it then takes a bite out of Pastor's district, pushing it a little to the northeast.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

I wouldn't expect the commission to put Cochise county in with the east valley exurbs, as it's always been put with Tucson.

 

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 03:31:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't really know much about Arizona

I have seen other comments on here to the effect that they are always separated.  But if that's not the case, that should make things that much cleaner for redistricting.

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by: ajwagner @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 02:01:37 AM UTC

I'm no expert on Arizona

But I generraly like the idea of a Pinal-based district rather than splitting Pinal a bunch of ways. However, I think Cochise doesn't belong in a Phoenix-area district. It is much more tied to Tuscon than Phoenix. I would rather see the 9th take in Gilbert and Chandler than stretch over to the NM border. Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise can go to the 1st or 8th. Also I think that your 2nd should extend a little further up into Mohave county. Many of those areas are conservative retiree towns, similar to many of the areas in the 2nd.  

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 03:12:05 AM UTC

True...

But OTOH, there are also a number of growing retiree towns in the 1st, such as Prescott and Sedona (though the latter isn't really "conservative").

It seems like I'll have a lot of moving around to do in my nest map anyway, so I'll be experimenting. If the Hopis get put into AZ-09 or AZ-02, then these and AZ-01 will have to be reshaped in a number of ways.

Still, I think there will be a push to have an all Pima district, especially since Pima actually has a majority on The IRC and Pima has more than enough population to justify its own exclusive district. Since Graham and Greenlee were already put into AZ-01 last time, perhaps they can stay there as Cochise is also added to AZ-01? Under this scenario, an Ann Kirkpatrick 2012 comeback might be more plausible.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 03:20:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not in love with Mohave, Pinal

Mohave County is really quite different from the rest of Northern Arizona. It's whiter, more Evangelical, older, more urban, and just generally less in-tune culturally with the region than Eastern Arizona is. AZ-01 really isn't as much a NorAz district, it's almost more of a Eastern Arizona plus Yavapai Co. district. Does that all mean that there is no way that the commission will adopt an AZ-01 that looks something like this? No. It's straightforward and compact. I just don't know that it's the best way forward.

Pinal. Oh god, I don't even know what to say about Pinal. From perspective, your map is great because it puts Pinal, the third largest county in the state and the quickest grower by percentage, at the center of its own political universe. I have another way of thinking of Pinal County, which is that it is one the most diverse counties in the country (and I don't mean ethnically, this is Arizona after all). You start in the very rural east, which is quite similar to Graham and Greenlee Counties, but more Hispanic and politically competitive. Then you see an agricultural heart in the center of the county, containing towns like Florence, Eloy and Coolidge where cotton is still king. All three of these towns are trying but (especially in Florence's case) failing to avoid turning into exurbs. Then there's Casa Grande, trying to balance its declining role as the industrialized capital of cotton country with its growing role as exburban mecca. (Town of) Maricopa has seen itself shift from poster child of the Arizona housing boom to poster child of the housing bust, and now its blocks after blocks of foreclosed upon or never purchased homes are finding new life as rentals. San Tan Valley, on the other hand, resisted the housing bust quite well and in just ten years has grown from sparsely populated farming country to the largest community in the county. From their you end up in Apache Junction, which is a mix of older exburb and snowbirds. And that's not even getting into the diversity in the county's several different American Indian populations!

That was long, I know, but the point is that Pinal County is a really complicated place. I'm never really bought into the idea that a county is by default a self-contained "Community of Interest" just by the circumstances of county line boundaries that made sense 100+ years ago when they were drawn. I think that by containing some of the eastern counties like Graham and Greenlee instead of just linking the county up with Maricopa and calling it a day, you are at least trying to engage the diversity within the county, so that rant more general and not directed at you (sorry it all came out right here!). But I do wonder if such efforts are the best way forward.

This massive comment is not to suggest that this map is even all that bad! Seriously, that turned out much longer than I meant it to be! One thing that I really liked is the Tempe, Ahwatukee, Uptown Phoenix district. It's a well-educated, "Creative Class" sort of place that's probably pretty close to 50-50 at the moment. I've also warmed up quite a bit to the idea of a district entirely within Pima Co. (though I should note, that Saddlebrooke in Pinal Co. was in AZ-08 because it is very closely linked to the adjacent northside suburbs).

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 04:05:42 AM UTC

Hey, you're the Arizona expert here...

And I'm the Nevada expert here. There's no need to apologize. I totally understand where you're coming from. A couple of weeks ago, I was the bitchy, long-winded one as others were releasing their Nevada maps. ;-)

The more I'm looking at it, the more I'm liking my revised map. I can now see how Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise fit in better with AZ-01. (And am I wrong in assuming this revised AZ-01 is probably better for Ann Kirkpatrick or another Dem to reclaim this seat next year?)

I can revise my map later this week and see where else I can stretch AZ-01 to make room for the rest of Mohave County in AZ-02. But for now, I really like my AZ-08 being an all Pima district. I'm really hoping The IRC will consider that, especially since they're a 3-2 Pima County majority. ;-)

And I totally understand where you're coming from on Pinal. Honestly, it's a somewhat similar strange dynamic here with both The City of Las Vegas and The City of Henderson! Both Las Vegas and Henderson have more heavily urban patches in their respective downtowns, as well as semi-rural patches (Northwest Las Vegas, Eastern Henderson) and upscale manicured suburbia (Summerlin in Las Vegas; Green Valley, MacDonald Ranch, Seven Hills, and Anthem in Henderson). If Sandoval and The Legislature were to deadlock on a map and punt it to the courts, a judicial panel would really have to look at whether The City of Las Vegas as a whole really is a shared "Community of Interest". (There's a stronger case for Henderson, but even here they might not feel too guilty splitting up newer, suburban West Henderson from older, urban/rural East Henderson.)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 05:34:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

AZ1

Your second map has AZ1 losing Gila (McCain 13.4k-7.6k in 08), most of Yavapai (McCain 58.0k-34.7k), and much of Pinal (McCain 57.7k-42.9k, but not sure whether the AZ1 portion is much different) and gaining most of Mohave (McCain 42.7k-21.3k) and all of Cochise (McCain 28.4k-18.5k). I don't think its PVI would change much.

I think your AZ8 would be D+2 to D+4. A moderate Reep could beat a very liberal Dem there, but a credible moderate Dem would never lose.  

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 06:29:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No, the PVI wouldn't change much...

But as Nico alluded to upthread, the overall political culture would. Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee now typically vote Republican at the top of the ticket, but they have a long history of electing "Pinto Democrats" somewhat similar to the old time Blue Dog Democrats of The South.

Yavapai and Mohave Counties, OTOH, are typically more uniformly Republican due to all the exurban retirement communities. Voters there are more likely to vote straight ticket GOP than the "Pinto Democrats" of Southeast Arizona.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 17:01:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

true

That's spot on about the old "pinto" Democrats and about Yavapai and Mohave, which are dominated by retirees. Yavapai is really a better fit for Franks' district than for Gosar's, although I suspect it won't end up there just because it would make AZ1 much less favorable for Republicans. That said, they could go all in on communities of interest. If they really want to pinto-ize AZ1 they could drop most of Yavapai, add Cochise, and keep Gila and the mining-dominated areas of eastern Pinal and some of the ag-oriented areas of central Pinal.

When I got to AZ in 1993 the legislature's old district 4 was basically the Mogollon rim, with Gila, Graham, Greenlee, and the non-rez parts of Navajo and Apache. It was represented by old-school (and old!) pinto Dems Jack Brown and the late Bill Hardt and Polly Rosenbaum, who took over her husband's seat when he died in 1948 and held the seat until 1994!  

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 17:23:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What was really interesting...

Was that even though Jan Brewer's overall margin of victory last year was pretty close to Bush 2004 performance in Arizona, she actually underperformed Bush 2004 and McCain 2008 in Graham and Greenlee. In fact, Terry Goddard got 47% in Greenlee and came within 2% of Brewer!

I'm wondering if more Pinto Democrats might be convinced to "come home" next year if the Arizona GOP keeps nominating more teabaggers, the national GOP is stuck with Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich on top of their ticket, and Arizona Democrats finally get their act together and campaign more throughout the state.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 17:53:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Your thoughful comments on AZ go to the heart of

words like "fair redistricting", "compact", "county lines" and  "community of interest".  There really is no right or wrong answer in redistricting. Even lines on a map can tell a very complex story.  

I tend to be very cynical about bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions because its mostly just putting political decisions in the hands of nonpoliticans or in the case of WA a small group of politicans.  Or in NJ you put it in the hands of one man whose whims or views on the subject may or may not suit your political party.  

In AZ I am not sure three men from Tucson and two from Pheonix will do any better then elected state legislators if you set out some sort of rules for them.  I still prefer limits on splitting counties, towns and townships as the best way to limit gerrymandering. You can't remove politics, IMO, its better to just set limits.  

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by: rdelbov @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 12:11:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

An interesting map

I couldn't even try to guess what the commission will draw.  A lot of people seem to be guessing that either the new district is competitive, or it is GOP-leaning but makes one of the old districts (like the one based around Tempe) competitive.

Either way, Democrats seem like they should be okay in Grijalva's and Gifford's districts (and of course Pastor's seat will never be in danger), and I'm thinking Republicans will be hard pressed to hold all of the other 6 districts next year with McCain off the ballot and a new map that should weaken the power of incumbency a bit.

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by: skaje @ Mon Mar 21, 2011 at 09:11:12 AM UTC