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Redistricting California (Part 3): State Assembly and BoE

by: californianintexas

Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 2:40 AM EDT


Here are my maps of the California State Assembly and the Board of Equalization, the tax board. To make each BoE district, I colored over 20 Assembly districts.

Majority-White: 37
Majority-Black: 1
Majority-Hispanic: 11
Majority-Minority: 31

Safe Dem: 35
Likely Dem: 9
Lean Dem: 3
Toss-Up: 12
Lean GOP: 7
Likely GOP: 8
Safe GOP: 6

Outer NorCal

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AD-01: Rural North Coast, northern Sonoma County
Demographics: 75% White, 15% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 28% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

AD-02: Marin County, southern Sonoma County
Demographics: 78% White, 13% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 77%, McCain 22% (SAFE DEM: D+24)

AD-03: Most of Sacramento Valley and Northern Mountains
Demographics: 79% White, 12% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 59%, Obama 38% (SAFE GOP: R+13)

AD-04: Rest of Sacramento Valley
Demographics: 75% White, 13% Hispanic, 5% Asian
2008 President: McCain 49%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

AD-05: All of Lake, Napa, and Yolo Counties; northern Solano County
Demographics: 63% White, 22% Hispanic, 7% Asian
2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

AD-06: Southern Solano County; most of suburban Sacramento
Demographics: 55% White, 16% Hispanic, 12% Asian, 12% Black
2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-07: Southern Sacramento
Demographics: 39% White, 20% Hispanic, 20% Asian, 14% Black
2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

AD-08: Northern Sacramento
Demographics: 61% White, 16% Hispanic, 9% Black, 8% Asian
2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

AD-09: Placer County, small parts of Sacramento and Nevada Counties
Demographics: 79% White, 11% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

AD-10: All of El Dorado, Alpine, and Mono Counties; northwestern Sacramento suburbs
Demographics: 79% White, 10% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 52%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+6)

San Francisco

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AD-11: Western San Francisco, Daly City
Demographics: 41% Asian, 39% White, 12% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 81%, McCain 17% (SAFE DEM: D+28)

AD-12: Eastern San Francisco
Demographics: 41% White, 26% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 10% Black
2008 President: Obama 86%, McCain 12% (SAFE DEM: D+33)

AD-13: Martinez, Richmond, Berkeley
Demographics: 44% White, 19% Black, 17% Hispanic, 16% Asian
2008 President: Obama 86%, McCain 12% (SAFE DEM: D+33)

AD-14: Oakland
Demographics: 30% Black, 28% White, 20% Hispanic, 18% Asian
2008 President: Obama 88%, McCain 10% (SAFE DEM: D+35)

AD-15: Most of San Mateo County
Demographics: 58% White, 19% Asian, 17% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

AD-16: Silicon Valley
Demographics: 51% White, 22% Asian, 20% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 76%, McCain 22% (SAFE DEM: D+23)

AD-17: Northern Contra Costa County (Pittsburg, Concord, Antioch)
Demographics: 61% White, 19% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 6% Black
2008 President: Obama 68% McCain 30% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

AD-18: Southern Contra Costa County, eastern Alameda County
Demographics: 75% White, 10% Hispanic, 9% Asian
2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 40% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-19: San Leandro, Hayward, Union City
Demographics: 37% White, 25% Hispanic, 24% Asian, 9% Black
2008 President: Obama 74%, McCain 24% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

AD-20: Newark, Milpitas
Demographics: 41% White, 34% Asian, 17% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 71%, McCain 27% (SAFE DEM: D+18)

AD-21: Eastern San Jose
Demographics: 35% Hispanic, 35% Asian, 22% White
2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

AD-22: Western San Jose
Demographics: 49% White, 28% Hispanic, 16% Asian
2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

AD-23: Santa Cruz County, southwestern Santa Clara County
Demographics: 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 11% Asian
2008 President: Obama 72%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+19)

AD-24: Eastern Santa Clara County, western Stanislaus County, Merced County
Demographics: 45% White, 42% Hispanic, 6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 55%, McCain 43% (TOSS-UP: D+2)

Central

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AD-25: Northern San Joaquin County (Lodi, Stockton)
Demographics: 42% White, 31% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 7% Black
2008 President: Obama 56%, McCain 42% (LEAN DEM: D+3)

AD-26: Southern San Joaquin County, Modesto
Demographics: 58% White, 27% Hispanic, 6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

AD-27: Eastern Stanislaus County, eastern Central Valley
Demographics: 64% White, 27% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

AD-28: Fresno
Demographics: 39% Hispanic, 37% White, 11% Asian, 8% Black
2008 President: Obama 57%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

AD-29: Most of Fresno County, all of Inyo County
Demographics: 46% White, 42% Hispanic, 5% Asian
2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

AD-30: Reedley, all of Tulare County
Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 41% White
2008 President: McCain 56%, Obama 43% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

AD-31: Monterey and San Benito Counties
Demographics: 46% White, 41% Hispanic, 6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

AD-32: San Luis Obispo County, Santa Maria, Lompoc
Demographics: 64% White, 27% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 50%, McCain 49% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

AD-33: Kings County, most of Kern County
Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 43% White, 5% Black
2008 President: McCain 58%, Obama 40% (SAFE GOP: R+12)

AD-34: Bakersfield
Demographics: 51% White, 34% Hispanic, 7% Black
2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

Outer SoCal

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AD-35: Santa Barbara, Ventura, Oxnard
Demographics: 52% White, 38% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 68%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

AD-36: Most of Ventura County
Demographics: 69% White, 22% Hispanic, 5% Asian
2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 48% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

AD-37: Santa Clarita, Lancaster, Palmdale
Demographics: 57% White, 26% Hispanic, 10% Black, 5% Asian
2008 President: Obama 50%, McCain 48% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

AD-38: California City, Barstow, Victorville, northeastern L.A. County
Demographics: 60% White, 26% Hispanic, 8% Black
2008 President: McCain 56%, Obama 42% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

AD-61: San Bernardino, Big Bear Lake, Twentynine Palms
Demographics: 46% White, 34% Hispanic, 12% Black
2008 President: Obama 53%, McCain 45% (TOSS-UP: EVEN)

AD-62: Redlands, Hemet
Demographics: 62% White, 26% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

AD-63: Corona, Moreno Valley
Demographics: 40% White, 39% Hispanic, 12% Black, 6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 57%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

AD-64: Riverside, Norco
Demographics: 46% White, 38% Hispanic, 7% Black, 5% Asian
2008 President: Obama 53%, McCain 45% (TOSS-UP: D+1)

AD-65: Lake Elsinore, Murrieta, Temecula
Demographics: 62% White, 26% Hispanic, 5% Black
2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

AD-66: Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Indio
Demographics: 51% White, 42% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 53%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: EVEN)

AD-80: Blythe, Imperial County, eastern San Diego County
Demographics: 50% Hispanic, 42% White
2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

Los Angeles/Orange County

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AD-39: Western San Fernando Valley
Demographics: 52% White, 27% Hispanic, 13% Asian
2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

AD-40: Eastern San Fernando Valley (San Fernando)
Demographics: 63% Hispanic, 22% White, 7% Asian
2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

AD-41: Burbank
Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 39% White, 8% Asian
2008 President: Obama 72%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+19)

AD-42: Glendale (Mike Gatto)
Demographics: 40% White, 37% Hispanic, 16% Asian
2008 President: Obama 68%, McCain 30% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

AD-43: San Gabriel, El Monte, Baldwin Park
Demographics: 55% Hispanic, 24% Asian, 17% White
2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

AD-44: Covina, West Covina, Diamond Bar
Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 24% Asian, 22% White
2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 37% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

AD-45: Santa Monica, Malibu, Port Hueneme
Demographics: 65% White, 21% Hispanic, 8% Asian
2008 President: Obama 71%, McCain 28% (SAFE DEM: D+18)

AD-46: Beverly Hills, West Hollywood
Demographics: 70% White, 12% Asian, 11% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 76%, McCain 23% (SAFE DEM: D+23)

AD-47: Inglewood, Hawthorne
Demographics: 51% Black, 37% Hispanic, 6% White
2008 President: Obama 91%, McCain 8% (SAFE DEM: D+38)

AD-48: Culver City, Compton (I had to make this district snake around AD-47 to make that one majority-black)
Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 32% Black, 10% White, 8% Asian
2008 President: Obama 88%, McCain 11% (SAFE DEM: D+35)

AD-49: Downtown L.A.
Demographics: 53% Hispanic, 21% Asian, 18% White
2008 President: Obama 81%, McCain 17% (SAFE DEM: D+28)

AD-50: Downtown L.A.
Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 12% Black, 8% Asian, 5% White
2008 President: Obama 85%, McCain 13% (SAFE DEM: D+32)

AD-51: Vernon, Bell, Bell Gardens
Demographics: 80% Hispanic, 16% Black
2008 President: Obama 89%, McCain 10% (SAFE DEM: D+36)

AD-52: Monterey Park, Montebello, Whittier
Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 14% Asian
2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

AD-53: Beach Cities, Torrance (Betsy Butler)
Demographics: 48% White, 24% Hispanic, 18% Hispanic, 6% Black
2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-54: Palos Verdes, Carson, part of Long Beach
Demographics: 40% Hispanic, 31% White, 14% Asian, 11% Black
2008 President: Obama 66%, McCain 32% (SAFE DEM: D+13)

AD-55: South Gate, Downey
Demographics: 69% Hispanic, 13% White, 10% Black, 6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 76%, McCain 22% (SAFE DEM: D+23)

AD-56: Lakewood, Bellflower, Norwalk
Demographics: 42% Hispanic, 31% White, 18% Asian, 6% Black
2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-57: La Canada Flintridge, Pasadena, South Pasadena, Monrovia
Demographics: 36% White, 29% Hispanic, 22% Asian, 9% Black
2008 President: Obama 65%, McCain 33% (SAFE DEM: D+12)

AD-58: Glendora, Claremont, Upland, Rancho Cucamonga
Demographics: 53% White, 30% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 6% Black
2008 President: Obama 50%, McCain 48% (TOSS-UP: R+3)

AD-59: Pomona, Chino, Montclair
Demographics: 53% Hispanic, 28% White, 9% Asian, 8% Black
2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-60: Ontario, Fontana, Rialto, Colton
Demographics: 59% Hispanic, 22% White, 12% Black
2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

AD-67: Long Beach, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach
Demographics: 56% White, 23% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 6% Black
2008 President: Obama 53%, McCain 45% (TOSS-UP: D+1)

AD-68: Fountain Valley, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Irvine, Laguna Hills, Laguna Beach
Demographics: 68% White, 15% Hispanic, 13% Asian
2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 48% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

AD-69: Anaheim, Stanton, Garden Grove
Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 32% White, 20% Asian
2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 48% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

AD-70: Santa Ana
Demographics: 65% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 15% White
2008 President: Obama 60%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+7)

AD-71: Northern Orange County (Cypress, Buena Park, Brea, Fullerton)
Demographics: 50% White, 28% Hispanic, 16% Asian
2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

AD-72: Yorba Linda, Orange, Tustin
Demographics: 59% White, 22% Hispanic, 15% Asian
2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

AD-73: Rancho Santa Margarita, Laguna Niguel, San Juan Capistrano, Dana Point
Demographics: 74% White, 15% Hispanic, 7% Asian
2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 44% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

San Diego

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AD-74: Camp Pendleton, Oceanside, Vista, Carlsbad
Demographics: 59% White, 27% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 5% Black
2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

AD-75: Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar
Demographics: 66% White, 17% Asian, 11% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 54%, McCain 44% (TOSS-UP: D+1)

AD-76: Northern San Diego, Lemon Grove
Demographics: 61% White, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 7% Black
2008 President: Obama 60%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+7)

AD-77: Southern San Diego
Demographics: 36% White, 35% Hispanic, 14% Black, 11% Asian
2008 President: Obama 72%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+19)

AD-78: Coronado Beach, National City, Chula Vista, Imperial Beach
Demographics: 49% Hispanic, 30% White, 13% Asian, 5% Black
2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

AD-79: Poway, El Cajon, Santee, La Mesa
Demographics: 73% White, 15% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 56%, Obama 43% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

Board of Equalization

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BOE-1: San Francisco and Sacramento Areas
Demographics: 51% White, 20% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 7% Black
2008 President: Obama 72%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+19)

BOE-2: Outer NorCal and Central
Demographics: 58% White, 29% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 49%, Obama 49% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

BOE-3: Outer SoCal, Orange County, San Diego
Demographics: 49% White, 34% Hispanic, 9% Asian
2008 President: Obama 53%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+0)

BOE-4: Los Angeles
Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 29% White, 13% Asian, 10% Black
2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 28% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

californianintexas :: Redistricting California (Part 3): State Assembly and BoE
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Thanks for posting.
I guess we don't have 2010 numbers for these seats?

I could pick and complain a bit-its not really worthwhile for me to do it.  I am not crazy about how several communities are sliced and diced.  I hate to mention San Diego again but the hispanic community is sliced and diced there again.  There's another Bay Area seat that crawls into the Central Valley.  Plus there is another seat linking Western LA & Ventura county.  

In fact there are several seats, perhaps a 1/2 dozen where hispanic communities are divided up.  You really cannot call a 53% hispanic seat a hispanic seat.  Based on VAP & actual voters you need more like 65% to get to protected status.  I have real VRA problems with 6 to 8 districts in this map.  

That's not a criticism per say but rather a fact that these districts that are 45-55% hispanic will not elect one.  I think the nonpartisan commission will push for more 60% and above hispanic seats


interesting
I'm curious why did you put Del Norte with the inland north state counties and with the other north coast counties?
Also, I doubt your split of Butte county is viable. With out further points of reference it looks to me like you split Chico and possibly Oroville.
I do like the way you dealt with Fresno & Bakersfield. very unique. It has VRA implications for sure.
Your AD-63 seems like an awful stretch.
In looking at your how you dealt with more densely populated parts of the state it occurs to me that the commission besides using county lines is specifically directed to use city limit lines to guide their decisions. I know the app doesn't have them but its something to consider.

Actually, the app
has local boundaries available now. It goes beyond incorporated communities to include the boundaries for census-designated places, so a certain amount of discretion in using them is required, but they're there.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
AD63 & AD64 is an
excellent example of what I mentioned.  Those two seats are 40% or so hispanic and if you are going to do messy the commission will certainly join hispanic communities to do a minority majority seat.

here's news on that

http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

This firm is supposed to help entirely on VRA matters.

There is another firm to be hired to help consult on drawing the maps

http://www.latimes.com/news/lo...


[ Parent ]
very interesting articles ..
"Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher was supported Friday by every Democrat, independent and minor-party member of the redistricting panel, but on the first roll-call vote, three of five Republicans voted no -- enough to block hiring the firm ...

The deadlock was broken when the other top finalist -- Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni -- withdrew its name from consideration. The commission then voted unanimously for Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher ..."

very interesting dynamic above which I think gives an insight into how this whole thing may proceed ...


[ Parent ]
here's some related material ...
http://www.calitics.com/diary/...

http://www.calitics.com/diary/...

it does appear that there are at least a few "good government" Republicans on the commission who will not let the process be hijacked by political hacks .. (btw, I'm personally not opposed to hacks doing this ! -- but it shouldn't be that way when you're supposed to have a non-partisan commission) ...


[ Parent ]
thanks for the links on CA
and here's one more on the hiring of the consulting team for board

http://www.mercurynews.com/cen...


[ Parent ]
Awesome BOE Districts!!!
Currently two districts are solid Dem and two strongly lean Republican. Basically control shifts between the two parties based on who is state controller (which luckily has been in Dem hands since 1975 or so) and they serve as the tie breaker.


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