1988

It seems impossible to believe that Michael Dukakis won a predecessor of OK-02 in 1988.

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by: emilysdad @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 23:45:42 PM UTC

2000

Even Gore only lost the current OK-02 by 6. It really has taken a hard to believe turn.    

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by: Alizarin @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 00:01:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

When I say that headline I got had to see this map

I thought how in the heck was this guy going to get three D seats out of OK.  Okay you get one seat out of OK and declare victory.  Wow this state fairly red.  Thanks for posting this map by the way.

I did have a few thoughts on OK.  I don't look for anything too wild.  That's not the Sooner way to connect panhandle with Rogers OK. I think will see a few little things.

OK4 likely lose Comanche & Tillman county.  It will also gain a county or two from CD2 but that will be offset by a bit more of Canadan county.  

OK1 will lose Wagoner and maybe its small piece of Rogers county to CD2.  It will go westward to Osage, Pawnee and Ponca city.  That will be about an even swap for CD1 but would make CD2 after it loses another rural county or two to CD3 several % more GOP

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by: rdelbov @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 00:22:04 AM UTC

Not enough

to take out Boren, of course.  He's still young and can have that seat for a long time if he wants to.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 01:29:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

you could be right-I might add

that I would not recommend the GOP got to crazy measures to get rid of him. #1 he votes conservative on every vote so why mess over the state or your own incumbents to get rid of him.  #2 Boren's strength has not really been tested yet. Here's my thinking on that.

1. He has faced a variety of second tier foes since he was nominated for this seat in 2004.  His showing in 2010 and moving the seat rightward 3 or 4% would encourage stronger oppisition.

2. There has also been very little GOP money put into this seat.  I can't say the GOP will committ the money in 2012 but perhaps in 2014 or so they will.  

Saying all this I still would do my plan if only because the odds of Boren going statewide, one day, is very great.  I can't say its an absolute certainty but I see him running statewide one day.  In a vacant seat situation moving the seat rightward would be a plus for the GOP.

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by: rdelbov @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:08:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank you Alizarin

I'm really enjoying these maps; I enjoy seeing where the little enclaves of Democratic strength in generally Republican-dominated areas are. Oklahoma is especially interesting since, as you said, McCain won every county. I suppose some of the downtown areas of Oklahoma City and Tulsa are really the only areas not trending away from the Democrats, though I can't say know much about the state. No offense to any Oklahomans, but I feel like it's perhaps the biggest lost cause of any state for any progressive politics.

Radical or something, WA-07

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by: sdkWA @ Sat Mar 19, 2011 at 00:50:31 AM UTC

Thanks!

And I'd agree, there really just aren't that many progressives in Oklahoma.

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by: Alizarin @ Sun Mar 20, 2011 at 00:30:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

True yeoman's work.

Great map; I like how clean every district but the 1st is.

It's hard to believe that as recently as the beginning of 1993 that Oklahoma's delegation was 4-2 Democratic. Talk about the friggin' bottom falling out underneath you. Maybe someone should try creating a McCain district in Connecticutt (I bet if you were really creative you could create more then one); that's about the closest equivalent to Oklahoma on the Dem side where the state has more then one CD.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

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by: koolbens @ Sat Mar 19, 2011 at 07:41:47 AM UTC

Wow

I've been working on "A Republican Connecticut" for the last two days (around March Madness). So way to predict me!  

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by: Alizarin @ Sun Mar 20, 2011 at 00:29:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]