re: that NM poll

It seems like they did a regular poll of 600 LV (what you'd expect for a statewide in NM) and simply asked those who identified as Democrats who'd they support in a primary. 213 is an oddly specific number, but it works out to roughly 35% of 600, which sounds about right for a party split.

If that's true, I wonder if they'll have GOP primary results or general election results to report, too.

---

by: sspiker @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 12:25:44 PM UTC

WI Recall

The State GOP is smart to try to kill the recall petitions for the Dem senators. The LAST thing they should want is to re-fight the whole issue statewide on a "You attacked Unions" vs "You Ran Away" campaign.

Best move for the GOP is too fight to keep the recalls from happening by challenging the petitions. If any do make it to a vote the best historical light of atack against a recall is to accuse the recall supporters of trying to circumvent or undermine the democrtic process (call it the Sore Loser strategy) or to undermine the opposition as trying to re-fight a lost vote instead of focusing on the future (The Let's Move On strategy).

The last thing in the world they should want is for this to be an straight up referendum on the Walker/GOP bill, that is suicide.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 13:20:13 PM UTC

Randy Hooper wearing an AFSCME shirt

http://www.facebook.com/recall...

what a jerk.

23, dude, gay, IL-13

---

by: chi787ord @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:20:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DCCyclone made a good argument on another thread...

About why it would actually be better if Hopper did resign his seat for the Democrats (i.e. the narrative would be bad, incumbent advantage and the fact a new candidate would have to introduce themselves to the electorate). But for once, I'm going to have disagree with DC. It's not just the mistress scandal (which hurts), but the fact this guy is just a bad candidate overall, and you combine that with the fact that his district is somewhat conservative (I believe Walker won it), and I think Dems would be in a better position if Hopper stays in, at least in his district - maybe incrementally so, but still better. Plus, I've heard there might be more shoes to drop with him.

Now, if you are talking the overall narrative for Republicans, they might be worse off if Hopper stays in.  

---

by: markhanna @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:34:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Recall vs Special Election Date

One tact Hopper might take is to wait until legitimate/confirmed petitions are in for his recall and then resign, prompting a special election which would not be simultaneous with recall elections in other districts.

With a fresh candidate in an election AFTER a recall vote the GOP would have a much better chance at retention.

I'm also curious to know what the rules are regarding simultaneous recall elections, if all the petitions were filed together and all were approved (ie survive challenge) then the recall election dates would likely be the same day, but if they are not you could end up with multiple recall elections.

If I was advising the Stste GOP I'd try to make this happen, it would go a long way to reinforce their two primary message strategies for defeating a recall (see earlier comment on what that strategy likely will be)

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 15:02:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It would be gubanatorial discretion to hold it the same day as the recall

Or not. But because an incumbent can opt off the recall ballot, and thereby not run, there is not reason to do so, and it would raise the question why Walker is wasting millions of dollars to hold an unnecessary second election when there is already one. The optics would be bad enough I suspect to cost whoever was thrown in the race, and would probably drag Walker back into the whole mess at the beginning of the recall campaigns.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:19:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That timing is backward

The rest of the recall elections, assuming they go forward, would take place before the special election for the open seat. I would be easy to justify a seperate date for the special since it would only be fair to allow for candidates to prepare for the special election (remember that the recall election is not the same thing, it's an up or down vote on the incumbent, but do they vote on the replacement at the same time? I don't know this, but eithe way time would be needed for a GOP candidate to file and prepare for an election. Also what is the nomination process for special elections in Wisconsin, primary or appointment?)

All this goes to my origninal thesis, that if you are the GOP you drag this out as long as possible in hope that the initial outrage will pass and focus can shift to new priorities (and thus cast the recall votes as either "Sore Loserism" or a Partisan Distraction from current issues, ie "Move On-erism".

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:41:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Replacement Election is concurrent with the recall

The Incumbent is automatically filed in the replacement election unless he or she declines to have his name entered. In order for your scenario to work, he will have to announce he is running in the recall, and then drop out mid-way through when its clear he is going to lose, and then have Walker, in the middle of multiple recall elections, say oopsie, we have to hold another, more expensive election. People will wonder why he just did not decline to run in the replacement election, or wait to see if he survived the recall and if he did resign if he tried to pull it. Remember, there is no obligation for the incumbent to run in the replacement election.

There is no legal basis for the recall being canceled once a date is set. Its also not even clear if the special election would even be legal if the recall passed and someone else won. The issue would be dumped into the laps of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and the entire recall campaign would dominated by the effort to play games with the system.

The only way for this to work is for him to resign before the recall date is set. Anything else would be a political disaster for Walker, and if Kloppenberg wins the Supreme Court Case in April, probably a legal one as well.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:51:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It sounds like he would have to quit...

...before the petitions were delivered to the elections people.  Fortunately, that doesn't seem likely at the moment.  He's fighting this as hard as he can now, and he only has a few more weeks left to fit within that window.  If he tried to quit after that, I imagine that the recall process would proceed with a primary (if necessary) for his replacement on the ballot.

---

by: LordMike @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 17:31:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Recall Replacement Process?

What is the process for selection of the replacement?

I remember in California it was 1 vote to recall (straight up yes or no) and a second ballot question for the replacement (which could include the incumbent).

Any idea what voters will be looking at if/when the recall petitions are accepted?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 17:56:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not like CA

It's basically a special election with the incumbent on one line, and the challenger on the other.  If there are multiple challengers, there is a primary first.  If the incumbent wants to bow out and have his name replaced by a different candidate, he has to do so within 10 days of official signature certification.

---

by: LordMike @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 20:37:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Recall Procedure

A recall in Wisconsin, once it qualifies for the ballot, is basically just a special election that features the incumbent (or not, if they decide not to run). There's a partisan primary (if one is required) and then a general election. And you can't evade a recall by resigning. Once the recall committee is formed and starts collecting signatures, the process goes until it's completed one way or the other, regardless of whether the official in question resigns.

---

by: gpack3 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:58:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here is what I really dont get it

How can a partisan primary only occur if it is required.  Um, is it or isn't?  Everything I read gives this weird, there will be one if one is required.  Why doesn't anyone just say if it is or isn't?  I am clearly missing something here.

---

by: Andrew @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 21:05:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is only required...

...if more than one person seeks to challenge the incumbent.  How that is determined, I do not know.  The elections site does not specify what it takes to get on the ballot as a challenger.

The position of Senator is considered a "partisan" position, so a partisan primary would be required if more than one challenger came forth.

---

by: LordMike @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 21:45:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Primaries

In a partisan election there is a primary iff there is more than candidate from any party.

In a non partisan election, there's a primary iff there are more than two candidates.

To get onto the ballot you have until the fourth tuesday before the primary to collect the required number of signatures, which I believe is 1000 for a senator.

---

by: gpack3 @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 00:27:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is there only 1 challenger in the recall?

What about 3rd parties?

Could a Republican run in the primary to be the challenger to the recalled GOP incumbent?  

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

---

by: izengabe @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 00:52:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

They're pretty much exactly like regular elections

Except for the compressed time frame and the fact that the incumbent qualifies for the ballot automatically.

---

by: gpack3 @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 16:49:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He can't resign

Once the papers are out for a recall, resigning doesn't affect the process. If it qualifies for the ballot, the election will be held, regardless of whether he's on the ballot or not.

---

by: gpack3 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:53:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One way the GOP could help themselves

Is by getting Hopper to bow out, and running Rep. Spanbauer against him. He's one of the state reps from the district and one of the four Republicans to vote against the bill in the Assembly. If he decided to run, it would more or less take the budget repair bill off the table as an issue.

---

by: gpack3 @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 00:30:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Isn't this a referendum on Walker and the bill?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

---

by: ndrwmls10 @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 00:33:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As a practical matter, yes, but gpack3 is right because as a practical matter...

...having the Republican on the ballot a guy who opposed the union-busting bill himself definitely improves the GOP's chances of holding the seat.  The atmospherics don't go away, and in fact it's very possible a strong Democratic turnout machine, converting the petition signers into what for a de facto special election is a massive number of voters, will overwhelm any Republican.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 01:57:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I actually think

That if anything it would hurt. This election is going to be all about energy and who can best turn out there base. I think the Independent and moderate vote which is what a move like this is supposed to be for will be very marginal in this election. Even with someone against this bill as there candidate Dems will still vote against him because the whole point of this is to take back the state senate

---

by: safi @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 04:19:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

House candidate recruitment

It's great that this is helping us fire up the interest of former House members. I doubt most of them went down for some serious flaws but rather suffered because of the wave. Also, I'd be very interested to hear how this is going for the Senate and whether the events in Wisconsin and other states are helping here. If I had to guess, I'd say no, if only because the seats in the Midwest that are up are ones that we already control, and threats against public employee unions don't hold the same power in Tennessee or North Dakota that they do in Wisconsin or Ohio. I'd love to be proven wrong, however.

Now, while this is probably an issue in less hospitable parts of the country, I'd still like to see Israel, and Patty Murray for that matter, develop a template that tells Democrats in tougher areas how to talk about their leadership. I seriously doubt that Pelosi had much of anything to do with losses this past November, but I can't see the constant bashing of her tenure helping. I don't understand why it's so hard for someone like Bobby Bright to simply say, "I'm going to support the leadership and administration when they are right and try to convince them otherwise when I disagree. I'm a proud Democrat, but I have an independent mind..." or something like that. The exact language isn't important, but it's not that hard to show one's independence from the national party while refusing to act like they are embarrassed to me a member of it. Republicans do it all the time, and they look like the more confident and stronger party because of it.

As far as Ted Strickland goes, I don't remember if I said it in a previous thread, but you made a lot of very good points about him and why he'd be better off in another position rather than at the DNC, DavidNYC. I now agree with you. I just wonder what such a position might entail.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 13:20:53 PM UTC

About MS redistricting

So, why did Bryant want to keep cracking Hattiesburg?  Is his strategy to screw over Dems as much as possible?  Good thing the State Senate didn't buy it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:05:23 PM UTC

Also glad

that the State House brought their map back to life and attached it on.  Only with this map do they have a sporting chance.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:07:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's majority African-American, albeit narrowly

And as we all know, that means a Democratic edge. Cracking Hattiesburg in three was the only way to avoid a Democratic or swing seat around there.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:31:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is that with the new numbers?

Back in 2000, it was plurality Caucasian at 49.95% White, 47.34% African American

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:33:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I believe it's right at 50%

That's what I recall reading, but I have to take a look at the actual data to be sure.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:51:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think it's still plurality Caucasian.

The Dem map was carving out the white precincts and connecting African American rural precincts to the Northeast of Hattiesville to it.

Neither proposal is really what you'd call compact Communities of Interest based, since a compact Hattiesburg district would probably elect a Democrat but be narrowly plurality white, something that isn't to the liking of either party for obvious reasons.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

---

by: Twohundertseventy @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 15:26:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Prominent Republican elected officials bragging about their gerrymandering strategy

That should go over well with "good-government" independent voters. Let your unelected aides talk about gerrymandering, so elected officials who need votes can keep their mouths shut.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

---

by: duffman @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:16:23 PM UTC

Safe in redistricting is a relative term. The GOP

won 242 seats in 2010 and if they ended up with 242 incumbents with similar or improved positions in those seats.  That would be safe , some might say cautious, but that's frontrunning 101 in politics.  Take a lead, keep it secure and cross the finish line ahead.  

Incumbents nearly always drive redistricting in a state.  The desire to protect incumbents or your plan to dump incumbents are your starting points in redistricting.  Thats why in CA or Iowa where you have the so-called nonpartisan redistricting plans the 1st step is not to protect incumbents.  Ditto for Florida's phony non-partisan redistricting plan.

The GOP is also thinking ten years a redistricting cycle makes.  Don't do your map on 2010 numbers as tides ebb and flow a bit.  I tell people here all the time that democrats will not draw maps on 2008 numbers.  They have to keep in mind years like 2010 happen.  

Back to incumbency 101.  The VA map plan will also certainly not be the last incumbent protection plan floated in 2011-2012.  There are states like KY, MN, CO, NM, NV, NY and others where party control is split.  I think over half of these states will see bipartisan incumbent protection plans.  There is a desire to advance your party's interest but when VA or some other state enacts a party protection plan that lessens the need for your state to enact political gains for your party.  With every state that enacts a static plan like VA it decreases the chance of either party making huge redistricting gains.  So if the overall situation for 2012 looks alot like 2010 you might as well lock in your seat.  Everyone else is.  

---

by: rdelbov @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:23:55 PM UTC

Oh no, Trumpy, not you too!

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:32:13 PM UTC

To state the obvious

What an awful, tacky asswipe.  Although at least I have something to get a laugh out of my friends with when I go to my office at the "best school in the country" later.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

---

by: Xenocrypt @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:40:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's more:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 15:05:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Awful, tacky asswipe!

I like that!  This whole potential Trump candidacy is so obviously an exercise in vanity and attention seeking.  At times in the past, Trump has sounded more like a Democrat, and was saying very nice things about President Obama only a year or so ago.  He craves the attention -- and right now that means pandering to the 'baggers to get it.  The kind of attention he WOULD NEVER WANT, however, is the prodding into your personal and financial life that happens with actually being a serious candidate for President.

---

by: IndianaProgressive @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 15:30:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My prediction

He drops out one day before he would legally have to file financial disclosure forms.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

---

by: Xenocrypt @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 15:36:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The House Map in Mississippi

Is unlikely to pass. Its a Democratic gerrymander, and the GOP grassroots are organized against it, and placing enormous pressure on the Senate to force conference, and failing an agreement, to hold elections this fall under the current map. Then they can win the house and do what they want next year.

The approved Senate map is a peace offering to the House, but its also a warning. There is an amendment passed saying that if both maps don't pass neither goes into effect. The House leadership is doubling down, but like the Senate Democrats in Virginia, their position isn't very strong. They need two Republicans to defect in the Senate.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:26:19 PM UTC

The VA State Senate is being allowed

to draw their map any way they want.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:39:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But they are being allowed it

At the cost of concurring in the Congressional map. The MS GOP wins if no one draws a map, if they draw a map, or if the courts draw a map. The only way they lose is if the Democrats draw one.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:52:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So could they in MS

They can concur with the Congressional map in return.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:55:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Republicans might lose House and Congressional Seats

From a court drawn plan in VA. They are at no real risk of either from a court-drawn plan in MS. By contrast, Democrats will lose the house under a court-drawn plan.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 17:30:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LookingOver is right, it's a bad comparison. Virginia is very different because...

...the overriding thing for Virginia Democrats is to hold the state Senate and maintain a check-and-balance on McDonnell and the GOP Assembly.

The Congressional map is secondary and minor.

Democrats actually held only 3 U.S. House seats pre-2008, .
so having only 3 again now isn't dire.  And unlike Mississippi, Republicans are letting us make Connolly safe in exchange for giving 2 Republicans only slightly safer seats that are still purple as open seats or if there's a Democratic wave election.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:02:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why do they need two Republican defectors in the Senate?

Also, the one problem with your scenario outlined below (about how the GOP wins pretty much every way except this one) is that if the courts have to draw the maps, there could be elections this year AND next year, which I think they want to avoid.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 17:04:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They do want to avoid it

But not enough to concur with a Democratic Gerrymander of the House. Republicans smell blood, and you they have not controlled the House since 1875. If two elections are the cost of ridding themselves of Billy McCoy and taking complete control of the state, many Republicans are willing to pay it.

This is less true of the legislators who will have to run. But they are under enormous grassroots pressure to kill the house map, and many are concerned about primary challenges more than challenges by Democrats in the general.

As for why they need two Republican votes, the Republicans have 27-25 margin in the Senate, with the Lt. Gov(a Republican) tie-breaking. Today there will be a vote on the House version of the redistricting bill, which is the Senate plan with the House bill attached. The Republican leadership is pushing their members to vote to send it to conference. They need two Republicans to vote to pass the plan in its entirety instead. That looked easy two days ago, doable yesterday, and very tenuous after Speaker McCoy's ill-advised outburst this morning.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 17:29:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The MS Senate

has now rejected the House map.  They voted to go to conference on the maps instead.  Now McCoy says he is going to send the House map straight to the DOJ without Senate passage.  I have no idea why he thinks this is legal.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

---

by: AC1 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:43:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good description

on what is going on in MS from a GOP POV here;

http://majorityinms.com/2011/0...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

---

by: AC1 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:47:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its a Hail Mary

One of the components of DOJ preclearence is a comparison of the proposed maps. He is attempting to stake his claim that it is possible to draw 44 Black majority districts and 19 influence ones in an effort to have something close to that made a requirement.

The most likely outcome is the Democrats going from majority to a GOP super-majority this November, but given thats the case, McCoy has very little to lose.

That said, he seems to be having something of a nervous breakdown. That temper tantrum earlier may have cost him the map.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:52:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

I thought McCoy was better at politics than that.  All you do when you threaten someone in public is back them into a corner.  It is better to do that in private.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

---

by: AC1 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:53:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He has also managed to turn a potential GOP Disaster into a Democratic one

Two days ago all that people were talking about was how Bryant overreached in a blatantly partisan manner. Now, in the space of 24hrs he has made himself the issue, and while sending the map to the DOJ may work out in the short-run(though the odds are it won't) any aid they give him will backfire politically.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:56:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think

it does help MS dems that the elections this fall are not at the same time as other national elections.  That makes it easier to localize the elections.  It would be amazing if the Dems held the House though.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

---

by: AC1 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:58:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Whoa

McCoy really did flip his lid! You gotta email me when stuff like that happens!

---

by: DavidNYC @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:15:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry

I guess I should have.  I have to assume he knows it is over.  This is akin to the NY Dems refusing to pass the Senate GOP map.  

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

---

by: AC1 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:25:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry

Only saw it this morning right before the posting, and it took me a while to track down the full, horrifying transcript.

On a side-note, and one that probably should not find its way into the supplement, I was talking to a friend of the Speaker's, a lawyer I knew down there, and he was under the impression that the Speaker did not go home last night before the statement.

And he also indicated that the Speaker was not in the best of conditions last night.  

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 22:03:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bryant certainly won today as

its conference time in MS-or is it?

McCoy sending his map to DOJ is quite bizzare as the DOJ in the past has been not VRA 411 for prelimary maps. If the DOJ started to pre-clear possible maps then the states would send them thousands of them.  Well maybe 5 or 10 per state.  For that matter maybe citizens could start pre clearing maps.

Naturally time is on McCoys mind as there is that 06-01-2011 filing deadline and DOJ takes 60 days to pre-clear.  Ironically his  house map is an out and out A1 racial gerrymander.  McCoy and his allies (which includes nearly every AA state representative) created a house map that slices and dices the black community in an effort to keep the house democratic.  McCoy's map packs republicans into super save seats while it puts random AA communities together to try to  salvage his speakership for one more term.  

It would be beyond ironic to see the DOJ challenge this map as, even as it carves up the AA community, because its the long best hope for perserving some sort D presence in MS.

 

---

by: rdelbov @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:01:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The best option

Was to keep Bryant as the villain by taking the Senate's olive branch(the Burton Map) and then using the opportunity to redraw the house one, preferably with a panel that did not have a 9D 1R makeup. The new map could still be a pro-Democratic gerymander, but as long as they went back and drew a knew one, and this one did not make all but two or three GOP held districts over 4% above the population deviation, and did not split 20,000 person municipalities 4 ways, it might have been passed.

Really the Reynolds plan, which is the current house proposal, is on par with the Delay map in Texas as one of the most abhorrent gerrymanders of the last decade. There really was no way the GOP Senators could get away with passing it once it became clear what was inside of it.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 22:07:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jill Derby running again?

I doubt it. She did plenty of good on the Board of Regents. But for some reason, she always had trouble getting votes in Washoe. In 2008, she actually LOST Washoe, even as Obama racked up his 12% win at the top of the ticket.

I suspect there's a reason why the DCCC is bee-lining over to Kate Marshall's office.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:31:13 PM UTC

What's the deal with Deb Smith?

Is she a strong candidate if Marshall opts not to run for NV-2?

---

by: terje @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 17:24:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meh...

Debbie Smith has become the de facto "Great Protector of The North" ever since Bill Raggio resigned from The Legislature, so now she's clearly enjoying her higher profile and all the buzz surrounding her. However, she lost her Assembly seat once, and came close to losing it again. Obama really saved her in 2008, and last year The Reno-Sparks Chamber of Commerce actually pushed hard for her because they wanted a Northerner to Chair Assembly Ways & Means. She knows her stuff in The Legislature, but she isn't the best campaigner.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 17:31:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

McCain's '00/'08 New Hampshire advisor to lead Barbour's NH campaign

http://politicalscoop.wmur.com...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:59:00 PM UTC

Giuliani bashes Romneycare

http://www.unionleader.com/art...

I still think there's a decent 30% chance Giuliani actually runs again.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 16:59:43 PM UTC

And I still think...

Rudy has a 0% chance of becoming The 45th President, and close to 0% chance of winning the GOP primary. If he really thinks he can run again, he's as delusional as Donald Trump.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

---

by: atdleft @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 17:28:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My guess is

he blames his poor 2008 performance on his poor strategy.  He invested everything in Florida, but by the time Florida came around all the momentum was sucked up by McCain, Romney and Huckabee there was little for him to grasp at after Florida was done.  

If he has himself convinced 2008 was because of strategy, I see him running again.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:15:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's a myth

Rudy did skip Iowa, but he made a serious play for NH. It was only after he was getting zero traction there that he strategically abandoned the state, to avoid a humiliating wipeout.  Everything on Florida was a last resort after his earlier strategy failed.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

---

by: Marcus @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:55:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DeMint actually defended Romney

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:18:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope none of you calls me a DINO...

If I admit to you that I would actually vote for Sarah Palin over Charlie Sheen.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

---

by: markhanna @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:10:25 PM UTC

It's two weeks early...

While there's an amusement value, why would PPP waste time on such questions?

---

by: tietack @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:19:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's actually a great question

Look at the number of people who would vote for Sheen over Obama.

How nutty are some Republicans?  The choice between Palin and Sheen has an ideology element, as Sheen comes from a liberal family, but the ideology difference with Obama is minor, and yet a lot of Republicns actually choose Sheen.

Sure it is a joke poll, but how is it even possible to answer that question by saying Sheen?

---

by: tommypaine @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 22:54:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

but

...would you vote for Charlie Sheen over Alvin Greene?

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:27:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd leave the country

---

by: DNick @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:36:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, of course

I meant "gun to my head."  

---

by: markhanna @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:42:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

pull the trigger

---

by: DNick @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:08:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmmmm...good point

Forgot there was that option.  

---

by: markhanna @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:14:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So he actually is winning

At least with indies! Meanwhile, POTUS leads in OH. 47-46 job approval, up 46-40 on Romney, Huckabee trails 48-41, Gingrich is down 50-38 and Palin is back at 52-36.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:01:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good numbers for Obama, though he's rather significantly underperforming Brown

I suspect Romney might well actually defeat Obama in Ohio, but, nonetheless, for now, these are fine numbers. I mean, at this rate, Obama could probably have below a 45% approval there and still eek-out victory. I think Daniels is the GOP's best bet at flipping here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:06:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why wouldn't he underperform Brown?

Brown is from Ohio. Is there any example of a swing state senator winning reelection by a smaller margin than the Presidential candidate?

---

by: DNick @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:07:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm trying to make sense of the PPP poll on DailyKos

seems to me they had a huge hike in percentage of conservatives polled last week.

Neverthless, his so-called "base" is piling on in the comment threads.  

---

by: DNick @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:06:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ugh, all those anti-Obama comments...

Make me glad we will have our own page on Kos when we move over. I would never try to compete with that kind of invective.  

---

by: markhanna @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:19:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm going in

Wish me luck!

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 21:44:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good luck!

---

by: markhanna @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 21:53:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks

I got a bit lazy and just started to post this...

Gallup (3/14-16/11)
50-43

CNN (3/11-13/11)
50-47  

ABC/WP (3/10-13/11)
51-45  

PPP (3/10-13/11)
47-47

DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (3/10-13/11)
45-51  

They are acting like the poll in question is the only poll out there. I suspect because it suits their predisposition that Obama is a failure.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 22:30:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's sad how DailyKos has come to be dominated by the 10% of liberals who disapprove of Obama...

...from the left.

And what's sadder is their self-absorbed delusion that they somehow are represenative of liberals, or progressives, or Democrats.

I hate false moral equivalences to the point of rage, but this particular niche of the left really is the moral and political equivalent of the wingnuts who elevated the likes of Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell and Joe Miller last year.

Thankfully, these people are outlying extremists who are too small in number to hurt Obama.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:10:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meh

The swing there does seem a little wild. PPP's own poll out yesterday was 47-47, Gallup today is 50-43 and CNN, ABC/WP and Bloomberg have been at 50% in the last week.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:23:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's statistical noise, the trend over time shows simply Obama is breaking even......

Really, Obama has been up in the DailyKos/PPP polls as often as he's been down, and the margins in positive or negative territory are always comparable.  The swings are not unlike the Gallup Daily swings, which also are pretty wild over the course of any given week but ultimately reveal a pattern over a month or more.

Being an obsessive campaign and polling junkie, nothing irritates me more than political journalists, bloggers, and commenters giving hyperfocus on a single poll as if it's the only poll in the world.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:13:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, and to reinforce its status as a fraudulent "poll", Rasmussen...

...earlier this week had Obama at 42-56.  Seriously.

I dumped my paid subscription in December, and I'm at the point where I no longer consider any polling averages valid from Pollster, Real Clear, or TPM since they fail to exclude Rasmussen.  I don't know how much more data is required for these organizations to realize and accept that Rasmussen's data is no more valid than Research 2000 or Strategic Vision.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:16:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

At least Pollster allows you to remove it manually

The average today with Rasmussen is 47-49 but 47-46 without. So because they are the most extreme outlier and along with Gallup produce the most data points they skew Obama's job approval negatively by 3 points.

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:24:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen isn't alone as bad data skewing the numbers......

Pollster includes a couple internet-based polls, Zogby and YouGov, that always have Obama underwater in the same ballpark as Rasmussen.  Internet-based polls are a poor methodology, you just don't get an honest sample.

I've done a 180 in my thinking on polling, coming back to trusting live caller far more than robopolls.  PPP is an exception, but the only one.  SUSA was erratic with bad data in a number of cases last year, and the problem is when they were off, it was by a lot, not a little.

The thing that distinguishes PPP from other robopollers is that they openly own up to their own bad polls and take them to heart, they study what went wrong, and they take steps to fix it.  They have had terrible polls in the past, and always have stepped up and admitted to egg on their faces, and then tried to figure out how to learn from it.  That's why their robopolls have become quite good.

But still, what they're doing for DailyKos looks very different methodologically from what they do in their own monthly national polls.  That said, the results aren't too different, they're in the same ballpark.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:31:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP

Yeah, same ballpark definitely but something is clearly different. I posted a question about it at their blog but no response yet.

Actually, I've just been looking at their job approval numbers from November and comparing them to the exit polls. On average the difference was about 8 points. For some reason they always seem to find Obama approval lower than reality. I wonder if it is something to do with conservatives foaming at the mouth and being more likely to respond that way in automated survey.

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:39:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It definitely is frothing wingnuts more likely to respond, but...

...when you talk about PPP's November polls, do you mean post-midterm?  Or was that a typo and you meant October, pre-midterm?

Almost all of PPP's post-midterm polls have shown Obama rebounding everywhere, unless I missed something perhaps in the very immediate aftermath.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:48:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No, sorry I wasn't clear

I meant their final polls compared to the exit polls. The first figure is Obama job approval according to PPP while the second is the exit poll finding.

FL 40-55 45-54

NV 41-56 46-52

CA 45-47 53-45

WA 42-53 51-49

IL 46-48 53-46

CO 41-53 48-51

WV 31-61 30-69

PA 40-54 47-53

OH 38-55 43-57

CT 46-44 54-46

NH 39-55 46-54

WI 37-54 46-53

TX 33-61 38-61

KY 31-62 36-63

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:58:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Georgia and Florida

have had their census data released. Maybe Rick Scott will now get those amendments approved. (Probably not, but the opposition will have a better case if he doesn't.)

---

by: thematt523 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 18:16:42 PM UTC

Both states may be majority minority by 2020

Non Hispanic Whites fell from 63% of the population of Georgia in 2000 to 56% now. In Florida non Hispanic Whites fell from 65% in 2000 to 58% now. Both states should either be majority minority or close to it by the next Census. Along with the Hispanic population growth we have seen everywhere the African American population grew by about 25% in both states, far outpacing non Hispanic Whites.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

---

by: MinnesotaMike @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 20:42:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Georgia Looks like 59%

NT

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

---

by: BenjaminDisraeli @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 22:09:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Walker viewed more favorably than major Rs

ref http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Walker's favorability with Republicans is a +44 spread at 55/11. That makes him already more popular with the party base than Mike Huckabee (+42 at 58/16), Sarah Palin (+40 at 63/23), Mitt Romney (+21 at 47/26), and Newt Gingrich (+19 at 49/30).

Advantages of Christie, without the handicap of being from metro NYC.

---

by: tietack @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 19:20:16 PM UTC

Map Porn!

The Massachusetts legislature posted historical maps of state legislative and Congressional districts:

http://www.malegislature.gov/D...

No Elbridge Gerry gerrymander, though. Kind of disappointing.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 20:36:00 PM UTC

I better not even touch that site

that could be hours of spent time.

---

by: Andrew @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 21:12:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bookmarked

so I too don't stay up until all hours again poring over historical maps. Flying  Spaghetti Monster only knows I've done so plenty of times with the California maps.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

---

by: californianintexas @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 06:14:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's a fun link

The 6 Most Childish Things Ever Done in Congress.  I can totally imagine the last one being a Looney Tunes episode.

---

by: Andrew @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 21:15:26 PM UTC

I read that

Certainly made me happy. Nothing like good old fashioned Shillelagh Law article on St. Patrick's Day.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

---

by: OGGoldy @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 21:35:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rothenberg concern trolls VA-Sen

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 22:33:58 PM UTC

LOL, concern trolling indeed! What amazes me about VA-Sen is...

...how some in the political media and seemingly all Republicans (as well as SSPer notpjorourke) buy this notion that being tied to Obama via the DNC Chairmanship somehow hurts Kaine.

Obama won the state, and all evidence since the midterms, including at least two VA-Prez 2012 polls, establish that he's in good shape to win the state again...indeed, he's polling the same in Virginia in recent months as he did through 2008.

Even the 2009 VA-Gov exit poll showed Obama only barely underwater in job approval, at 48-51, on a day when state Democrats were slaughtered.  And he's clearly back in positive territory in all credible polling all this year, both nationally and in Virginia.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:23:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I keep getting the feeling

that President Obama's numbers in VA will be solid -- and he'll come distressingly close to losing PA in '12.

(assuming the election is as close as it was in '08, which I doubt)

---

by: tietack @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:47:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's not in any trouble in PA, recent PA polls have him strong there......

Q-poll and some schools in the state poll there, so there are always more PA polls than for almost all other states, and Obama has rebounded there just as elsewhere.

Q-poll had Obama's PA job approval at 51-44 in February, a huge turnaround from all of 2010 when he was in the low 40s--one of his worst states last year among states he won in 2008.

Muhlenberg had Obama fine in PA at 48-44 job approval and beating all Republicans in trial heats in an early March poll.  They, too, had Obama undewater in PA all through 2010.

PPP had Obama a small bit underwater in PA at 46-49 in early January, but that was when Obama's rebound was just getting underway, and still those were better numbers than he'd had all through 2010, not to mention that the same PPP poll had Obama beating all comers in the state.

I'm confident Obama will do better in PA than in VA, and ultimately win both.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:59:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow...

You know, what's really hilarious is this:

But Democrats could also look for someone who has never held office and therefore could, at least initially, avoid being pigeonholed ideologically.

I don't have anyone particular in mind, but then again, I had never heard of Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) or Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) before they entered their races last cycle, and Democratic Sens. Al Franken (Minn.), Frank Lautenberg (N.J.) and Herb Kohl (Wis.) initially came out of nowhere to win Senate seats.

If Rothenberg had simply stopped at saying that maybe Perriello would be a stronger candidate than Kaine it would at least be defensible (not that I'd agree with it, mind you), but when you start speaking up the virtues of Rick fucking Scott, you've really flipped it.

Incidentally, how is it that the Democrats' are the one with the pathetic field when they're going to nominate George "I lost my senate seat because I'm a blatant racist" Allen.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

---

by: DGM @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 07:47:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

since when we should care about "getting pigeonholed ideologically"?

If VA can vote for the scary black one, then needing a differently ideology besides "standard Democrat", then it's because our candidate is flawed in other ways as well.  

(I am going to go to grad school and I've realized that the timeline for me is that I can be finishing up my thesis a little bit after the Obama Presidency.  LOTS of fun racist things to study.  Shit, fun in a scientific sense, obviously.  A focus group would absolutely blow my mind!  One idea is to get myself into the U of MN and do a comparison of racism in the tea-bagger South and where I think the 2nd largest concentration of them are north of the Mason Dixon line, MN-6.)

---

by: Andrew @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 10:34:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kaine is like a Honda Civic.

I'm not sure of the point of publishing such articles. From what I can tell, Kaine isn't the world's most exciting candidate. But he's a reasonably popular guy that has been elected statewide twice in a state that's moving in the direction of the Democrats. Maybe he won't set the world on fire, but if he's going to run a solid, n+1 campaign that will build on the minimum of 47 percent or so that Obama is bound to get in the state, who cares? Sometimes, the answer is to run the equivalent of a Honda Civic because you know it's going to get you from one place to another without causing too many problems.

Rothenberg's suggestion isn't entirely ridiculous--for Democrats in a state like North Dakota or Texas. But why would they do it when they have someone like Kaine, who has all of the features I described above, or someone like Perriello, who is as likely if not more likely to outperform Obama in the state than Kaine is?

Why not look into the date and write an article about the possible areas of strengths for each candidate? Oh, wait, that would require actually thinking instead of concern trolling for Democrats. My mistake.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 16:07:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The worst part is that Rothenberg is usually more thoughtful than this

I mean yeah, I know he's a Republican, but his political analysis is usually worth reading. This was just garbage today.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

---

by: DGM @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 16:15:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Remember

a few weeks ago when we had that special election in LA that determined the state Senate majority?  Well, another Dem switched today, so that was all for nothing.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

---

by: AC1 @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 00:03:35 AM UTC

Link

http://www.nola.com/politics/i...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

---

by: Darth Jeff @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 00:41:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

We may see more switches in the next few days. The special redistricting session starts Sunday, and anyone who is switching will want to do so before redistricting.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 01:14:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And once again - typical: white and generally conservative

Amedee was one of approximately 5 Democratic state Senators, whom i considered to be more or less conservative, and probable to switch. Mount would be logical next, but she is retiring. So, who - Nevers, Thompson, Heitmeier, Chabert? In House i am still waiting for Fannin, then, possibly,Danahay, then - who knows?

---

by: smoltchanov @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 05:05:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Help

I need a favor. Can someone post a working link of the Aqua Buddha ad? I can't find it anywhere on youtube and all of the links in news stories say the video was taken down by the owner. In the meantime can someone post the text of it as well? Also can anyone give me links to links regarding negative political campaigning and effects it has on society. I know that is a big favor. Thanks in advance.
(This is actually hoosierdem's nephew, I'm working on a paper for school and he told me he was too busy to help but to post this here and you guys would help).  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 01:14:44 AM UTC

A bit cut off at the end

but I think this is it:

http://online.wsj.com/video/at...

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

---

by: gabjoh @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 01:48:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks a bunch.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 03:15:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

nephew of hoosierdem, you should

make an account too :) the more the merrier

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

---

by: jncca @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:57:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I

will try. I am very busy and can not really spare a lot of time. If you, or anyone, could get some links about the effects of negative political ads on society that might influence my decision. :)      

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 03:12:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

from google:

http://www.scripps.ohiou.edu/w...

http://www.thisnation.com/ques...

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

---

by: jncca @ Sat Mar 19, 2011 at 00:46:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks.

I'm sure those helped him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Sat Mar 19, 2011 at 02:56:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks.

I'm sure those will help him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Sat Mar 19, 2011 at 03:00:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ben Masel has Stage IV lung cancer.

He commented on here for a time and still has an active account on DKos.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/ne...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 02:56:13 AM UTC

Damn

Best wishes.

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 03:01:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's to you Ben

I hope that I can be as positive as you throughout my days:

"I'm feeling pretty upbeat about stuff. Not about having (cancer), but overall," he said. "I'm definitely not in the 'Oh, no, poor me, I've got cancer' mode."

---

by: tietack @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 03:03:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's terrible...

He's been trying to sue governor Walker to open up the capital building for the protesters.  He's a real good guy!

---

by: LordMike @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 03:07:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Damn.

I hope he recovers.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

---

by: californianintexas @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 06:10:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's reportedly terminal.

He is still undergoing treatment, though.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 06:15:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Curiouser and Curiouser

The 25 year old lobbyist mistress of Randy "Bed" Hopper, one of the WI GOP 8 facing recall, now has a cushy state job.  Senator Hopper, of course, denies any wrongdoing in the matter... purely a coincidence!

Sen. Randy Hopper (R-Fond du Lac) told WKOW27 News he played no role in the recent hire of a state employee.
Sources told WKOW27 News the employee is the same woman Hopper's estranged wife,  Alysia Hopper referred to as Hopper's mistress in a public statement and in a letter to a radio station.

Department of Regulation and Licensing spokesperson David Carlson said the woman, 26, was hired in February as a limited term communications specialist.  

Carlson said he had no details on whether the woman was hired to a newly-created position or a vacant, existing slot.   Carlson said he also had no details on the hiring process or the woman's salary.

http://addins.wkow.com/blogs/s...

No word if this is a union job.  The local TV news is apparently all over this.  Nothing like a sex and corruption scandal to fetch their interest!  

---

by: LordMike @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 03:23:27 AM UTC

Even more curiouser...

Senator Hopper's soon to be ex-wife is now promoting his recall on her facebook page:

http://addins.wkow.com/blogs/s...

---

by: LordMike @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 03:26:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]