Good. Apart from the discussion on Conservatism,

my numbers indicate that Bera was one of the Democrats most overperforming expectations in 2010. I don't know if that more due to Bera being great or Lungren being bad, probably a combination of both, but it doesn't matter, this is great news.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

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by: Twohundertseventy @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 22:58:09 PM UTC

$

Bera had enough money to run a serious campaign. He ran a lot of ads here, and I remember seeing more of his than of Lungren's. They might not even end up in the same district, as Lungren lives in Gold River east of Sacramento and Bera lives in Elk Grove south of it.

According to Bera's wikipedia page he graduated college at 18, which sounds suspicious.

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 23:26:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not necessarily.

I have a very good friend who started college at 13.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

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by: Twohundertseventy @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 23:28:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

since

he finished med school 8 years later, i'd say it's incorrect

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

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by: jncca @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 00:41:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

18

Rick Snyder also graduated college at 18. It takes a nearly-psychotic genius to do it, but it can be done.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

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by: OGGoldy @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 00:55:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

To also screw over the middle class

and make it seem like he's not doing anything.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 00:56:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's

not a tough nerd for nothing....its just he's being tough on the Middle Class when they can least afford it.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 01:09:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He has an ideology which

he hide very well.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 01:20:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Word is my doctoral program might be admitting a sixteen-year-old

We already have people who celebrated their 21st birthday in the program.  It's a big world out there, and people go at different paces.  Me, I am in no rush (goes back to TV).

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

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by: Xenocrypt @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 03:40:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My community's dream of an Indian-American Democrat in Congress...

...will happen soon enough, and it would be fitting, even if stereotypical, if it's a doctor.  Ami Bera is a great candidate and from all the accounts I've heard also a fine man.

One thing we need in Congress in the way of diversity, IMO, is more professional diversity.  If the stereotypical chosen path of many South Asians and East Asians of medicine and engineering puts more doctors and engineers in Congress, then that's a double-bonus on the diversity front.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 23:08:04 PM UTC

It will happen, and it'll be a great day

I hope Manan Trivedi thinks about running again (if they don't shore up Gerlach's district too much). Of course, he's a doctor, too!

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by: DavidNYC @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 01:30:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

On my first read

I missed the "Democrat" part, so I was going to mention how I doubted Bobby Jindal represented either your commmunity of Indian-Americans or my community of "Brown graduates" very well as a Member.  I was also going to say that the Brown graduates community wouldn't mind a Member either, having lost Maffei, but then I remembered about Cicilline, my demographic near-doppleganger.  There did seem to be a lot of good D Indian-American candidates in 2010, at least on fundraising, so hopefully that will stay.

And, agreed on professional diversity, although it does make sense to have an extent of overrepresentation of lawyers in the law-writing gig.  At least scientists still have Holt, who seems like a fine Rep from what I know.  There do seem to be a lot of doctors among the GOP freshman class.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

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by: Xenocrypt @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 03:52:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Holt and McNerney

Although I think McNerney stopped doing pure science fairly early in his career. Also Bill Foster in IL until last year.

(Rah rah Brunoia -- are you still in Providence?)

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by: boojumsnark @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 22:50:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Has Brown disowned Cicilline?

over his proposal to tax out-of-state students at Providence schools? pissed off a LOT of people with that. although given the choice of him or Jindal I don't think they'd hesitate to claim Bobby went to Harvard.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 16:29:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

don't know if he counts

But I thought California had the fist Indian American member of congress
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

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by: lordpet8 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 06:39:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I totally agree with you on professional diversity

I'd like to see some Democrat CPAs run for congress too.  I'm a CPA, but a good portion of the CPAs in the United States, especially those who are partners in the Big 4 firms, are Republican.  However, I've noticed that the new CPAs tend to be more Democratic, so that is a good trend.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 12:27:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fellow CPA here....

I also started out in Big 4 and yep all of the partners are Republicans. Everyone below was about even with the normal leanings of Northern Virgnia.


28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

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by: Cool_Arrow @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 14:01:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

From being the states AG for 8 years

to barely holding onto his district in the best climate for republicans in the past 16 years.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Here's hoping Bera clobbers Lungren in 2012.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 23:09:36 PM UTC

CA-03 is likely to get more Democratic

Most SSPers who have attempted California have ended up with a more liberal, more compact CA-03 than the current iteration, given the district's need to shed a ton of population.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

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by: Nathaniel90 @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 23:09:57 PM UTC

I am guessing

CA-3 will be in Sacramento County only. Sacramento County has more than enough people for 2 districts. Matsui's district may become less packed although I doubt the commission will do a north-south split in Sacramento County.

Still, CA-3 is trending Democratic pretty quickly with Democrats moving out of Sacramento and into the suburbs. Even Kamala Harris came within one point of winning Sacramento County while winning by 1 point statewide. Also, CA-3 was the only CA district held by a Republican that Jerry Brown carried.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 00:10:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

California should be exciting

Who knows what the commission will draw, but given the strength demonstrated by CA Democrats in 2010, I'm really optimistic.  The districts that Republicans used to be able to hold easily are slipping away fast.  I was really impressed by the good numbers that Democratic incumbents put up compared to GOP incumbents this past election.

Sort to California and you'll see just how weak and bloated the GOP caucus is from CA.  Lungren winning with 50%, Bono Mack winning with 51%, Dreier winning with 54%, Calvert winning with 56%, and even Bilbray and Herger being held to 57%.

If anything, I'm hoping the commission scrambles the lines significantly...without the power of incumbency, they will struggle to hold districts that Obama is winning next year.

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by: skaje @ Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 23:30:45 PM UTC

scrambling

The commission can do nothing but scramble the lines. Swing districts and contested elections are none-existent. The statewide republican party has become a caricature of the national party. The screaming you hear in August when the new map is shown will be a sight to behold.

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by: hankmeister @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 00:00:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Despite some SSPers' teeth-gnashing on this, I think CA will be a big Dem gain of seats that the pundits aren't expecting......

I bet once you totally scramble the districts and consider only nonpartisan and nonideological factors in putting people together, California is at the point now where that only helps Team Blue.  You might lose some majority-minority districts, and that might or might not have VRA implications although somehow I doubt it (not a former disenfranchisement state), and yes some Dem incumbents are going to gnash their teeth having to run in districts unfamiliar to them in their entire careers.  But I bet ultimately we end up picking up seats in a new configuration.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 00:50:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My guess is that Garamendi ends up being Lungren's opponent

The commission will probably draw two districts completely within Sacramento County and Garamendi's home is in the tail of the county. CA-3 would have about a PVI of D+1 or even.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 00:08:39 AM UTC

I'd guess Garamendi moves West if that happens

He already lives outside his district (by a smidgen), so he'll probably run in whatever seat includes Eastern Contra Costa and not worry about where his home lies.

The irony is the David Harmer attacked Garamendi as a Carpetbagger for living 200 yards outside the district, and then proceeded himself to run in the neighboring 11th the next Fall.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 13:12:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lungren is a relatively strong opponent

More obviously, Bera (or most anybody) could beat Mcclintock if he carpetbagged to this district instead of the much redder one he is in.

So it isn't that Lungren underperforms, to the contrary.  That area is certainly not blue, but even gerrymandered as it is now it is only pink.  

Lungren could get a light pink district from the commission, but more likely the lost Dem district in the Bay Area will sprawl out to here.  Lungren would likely beat a terrible Dem, but a strong Dem should be able to handle him.

Ideally Lungren will choose to run against Mcclintock (and crush him) instead.  That would be a double upgrade, a Dem in Sac county and sane Lungren replacing insane Mcclintock.

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by: tommypaine @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 02:12:50 AM UTC

I disagree

I worked for Charlie Brown in CA-04 in both 2006 & 2008, and I can tell you, Tom McClintock has gotten VERY popular in the district. He is an old school Tea Partier, and Dan Lungren would get CRUSHED if he had to face him in a hypothetical match.

Bera WILL beat Lungren this time around, especially if he sticks to jobs and the economy. Healthcare is a big lost outside of Sacramento, so he has to be careful there.

30, dude seeing a dude (CA-04 raised, CA-05 home)

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by: fnpople @ Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 20:14:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No chance

Top two elections.  Lungren beats McClintock easily in the general.

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by: tommypaine @ Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 01:51:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]