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NV-02: It's Angle Time!

by: DavidNYC

Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 1:04 PM EDT


Ralston via Taegan:

Jon Ralston confirms that Sharron Angle (R) will run for the seat of Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV), who is running for U.S. Senate.

He notes the GOP primary "will be something else."

It's time to play the music! It's time to light the lights! It's time to meet the wingers on the crazy show tonight! Yeah, my friends, I'm in a good mood today. It's like I can smell the cat fud that hasn't even been opened yet. It's not that I expect Angle to win - see Ralston via DavidNYC:

As for that 2nd CD race, Jon Ralston said he's seen three different internal polls in recent days, all of which show Sharron Angle doing poorly in a one-on-one fight against Krolicki (and also against Heller for Senate). Ralston says he can't divulge the numbers, but he now thinks that Angle - whom he had previously considered "the favorite" for NV-02 - would need a multi-way primary to have a chance at the nomination.

But this sure as hell ought to be entertaining!

UPDATE: Here's Angle's announcement video:

DavidNYC :: NV-02: It's Angle Time!
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NV-02: It's Angle Time! | 56 comments
My boyfriend lives in that district
And holy jeebus, I can't wait to watch this race over the next two years.  

24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)
Don't count Sharrrrrrrrrrrrron...
Out just yet! Remember, both Nevada GOP Chair Mark Amodei AND Lt. Gov Brian Krolicki want to run in NV-02 as well. If they both run and split the GOP establishment vote and $$$$, much like Dean Heller and Dawn Gibbons did in 2006, Angle just might slip through. (She came within 500 votes and a federal law suit then!)

The only big worry for her is probably Kirk Lippold. If Chuck Muth is serious about sidelining Sharrrrrrrrron and remaking Lippold into "Mr. Tea Party", then Krolicki just might be able to breathe a little more easily.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

Can't Lippold challenge Heller instead?

[ Parent ]
YAY! VIDEO!!!!

Wake up and smell the train wreck! :-D

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

Haha what a woman
Frankly, though, I think this is probably a sigh of relief for Republicans who'd been fearing a challenge to Heller in the U.S. Senate race. Here, she won't get nearly the attention/press, and now Heller probably cruises to a landslide in his primary.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Heller's not out of the woods just yet...
That Club for Growth wouldn't endorse him earlier this week suggested to me they still want someone "pure", and they find Heller lacking. But certainly, his life was made just a little easier today...

At the expense of Brian Krolicki's. Now the Nevada GOP will have to make the ugly decision of whether or not to tell their own Chairman (Mark Amodei) to sit out NV-02 so that he doesn't hand that primary to Sharron Angle.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I've always liked this ad better...

At least this gives me a chance to revisit "Sharrontology's Greatest Hits"!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Wait...was that
....was that ad really paid for by Harry Reid?

Because if so, can we fire whomever came up with these lame-ass slogans for the DSCC and hire whomever did this ad instead?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Not a real tv ad
because it goes over a minute.  From the last 20 seconds, seems like a fundraising plea that was a web ad.  They could've edited that down and made it a real, minute long tv ad if they wanted to, though.
[ Parent ]
No, it was web only...
But Harry Reid's online media team did reach out to local comedian Rita Rudner to make this video. And I still LMAO whenever I see it. :-D

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
YES
It's Democratic pickup time!!!
Bingo!
With what's her face*, we could be looking at a real pick-up opportunity.

*I'll come to know to know her name with time.  Dem Treasurer is it?

[ Parent ]
Kate Marshall
State Treasurer Kate Marshall (D-Reno). Here's a tip to remember her name; she apparantly called her 2006 platform "the Marshall Plan".
[ Parent ]
Potentially
I wonder if this will have any effect on Democrat's efforts to pack Republicans into a non-Reno district. If they make a district that a Democrat should win, it would lessen the sting a little bit of Sharon Angle being their candidate.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

This probably helps in NV-Sen as well.
Makes a little more room for a viable crazy person to challenge Heller without having to split the vote with the queen of crazy.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
Oh good, I'm not the only one here...
Thinking this! I'm sorry, but I have a hard time seeing Club for Growth and Tea Party Express cozying up to Heller now, after 5 long years of fighting him. We'll just have to see if they can find someone to do it.

Don't get me wrong, it won't be easy. But considering how not just Angle, but a bunch of other teabaggers came from nowhere last year to win primaries up and down the GOP ballot statewide and in Reno & Vegas, it's not impossible for them to find another way to challenge Heller.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Also,
if Angle is making news as the Republicans candidate for the general election, this has the potential of dragging down the whole ticket.
[ Parent ]
Better without Angle
The Heller-Angle Senate numbers demonstrate serious buyer's remorse among the GOP about her, so it's best that she doesn't challenge him in the Senate race from a Dem point of view- he'll win and look saner from the comparison. But she could still cause havoc in NV-2nd for the GOP, depending on the field.

What about Tarkanian against Heller for Senate? He was a Tea Partier, but the TPX pressured him to get out after Angle overtook him and they were worried about Lowden. Might they give him a second chance?

[ Parent ]
Oh Goody!

OTOH
Tweet from Dave Wasserman:

Also hearing Dems in NV may push for map packing Rs into Heck's #NV03 and give Kate Marshall (D) safe #NV02

http://twitpic.com/49txvk

Sharrrrrrron would have zero chance in such a district.

I can't see how Sandoval would sign off on that.
I also don't know how you could draw NV-02 to be safe, since it's going to inevitably contain either all of Washoe County, which is the swing county of the state, or the Clark County suburbs, which lean Republican.
[ Parent ]
It would require splitting Washoe
I did a diary on in a few weeks ago. There is no real way to connect the heart of Clark County with the entirety of Washoe County. However, you CAN draw a district that can cherry pick precincts in Washoe (Sparks, Reno) and run it down to contain all of North Las Vegas, which would be a Democratic district (and not by a slim margin). But I believe that splitting Washoe is a no-no in Nevada redistricting.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Also, if NV-02 were drawn that way
Wouldn't that mean the map would be 3-1 in favor of Dems? Why would Sandoval sign off on that? Even if Sharron Angle loses a Republican seat, Repubs could easily gain it back in two years.  
[ Parent ]
That would lock 3-1
http://swingstateproject.com/d... is the way I drew it. Admittedly, I knew NOTHING about Nevada when I drew this map, but apparently this would be a 3-1 map, with a little tweaking with cherry-picking precincts in Reno.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
No, it wouldn't...
It would probably be a 2-1-1 map at best, and Marshall still wouldn't have that Reno-to-Vegas seat totally locked up.

That's the biggest problem when drawing a Reno-to-Vegas district: It throws off the other Vegas-based districts and makes it incredibly difficult to draw a good North Las Vegas anchored minority-majority district.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I agree, but ...
Washoe County consists of the Reno/Sparks area, plus some virtually unpopulated high desert extending north 200 miles to the Oregon line. If we were talking about splitting up the Reno/Sparks area that would be one thing, but I don't think anyone really cares about keeping the desert attached to Reno; it might make more sense to attach it to nearby counties that are similar economically and culturally.
[ Parent ]
Well both houses of the legislature are Democratic
He's not going to get everything he wants.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
Right but neither are the Dems
With Sandoval as governor
[ Parent ]
Forget the latest BS spin
The NV redraw is going to go exactly the way the CW always said it would, Dems will draw two solid districts in Vegas/Clark County and the GOP will have two solid seats, one in the rest of Clark county and the other in the rest of the state.

The danger for Dems is that if they can't agree to a map that Sandoval will sign a court would likely draw 2 safe districts (1 for each party) and split Clark county on non-partisan terms meaning you'd end up with 2 swing districts. Just like the GOP in VA, why risk being down 1-3 when you can just take the 1 CD being handed to you. Especially since there are a lot of vested parties in the legislature who want one of those Dem CDs for themselves.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
NV
I highly doubt this.

2-1-1 Seems the most likely outcome, and if its Sharon V. Marshall in a swing district Dems will have a 3-1 advantage.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
Possible
But it could also go the other way with Krolicki and Heck locking up the (now) 2nd & 3rd and then a GOPer winning the new 4th after a bloody Dem primary.

It's not particularly likely, but I'm willing to bet 1 US Dollar that fear of the unknown will force compromise that will put us right back to where everyone know we'd be a year ago, 2-2 map with no particularly competitive House races for the next 2-3 cycles at least.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
That's only possible if...
The Legislature actually does a dummymander with two Reno-to-Vegas districts. And a map like that wouldn't survive federal legal challenges anyway.

That's why the best option for NV-02 is to just let the extra rurals get drawn out (they have to, as NV-02 is over the population goal) and keep all of Washoe in it. It will be a district Obama narrowly wins anyway, and a polarizing far-right GOPer like Sharron Angle might just lose the district anyway.


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
You're ignoring the fact
that the GOP seat outside of Clark County will contract in area (as all districts do to make room for a new district).  Most of the district's population is Washoe county (Reno) which Obama won 55-43%.  The counties the district will be losing are very red rural counties.  If Democrats continue to get stronger in Washoe they will win this congressional district eventually, no matter what the GOP does to try to shore it up.

But you are right about Clark County with the likely outcome there being 2 safe urban districts and 1 safe GOP suburban district (for Heck whom the GOP will definitely try for a friendlier district, his current one voted for Obama by 12% and Kerry by a few percent).

[ Parent ]
The thing is
Nevada is becoming more and more Democratic.  It's very difficult to draw 2 completely safe GOP seats, even if Republicans controlled the entire process.  Whichever seat they would try to strengthen (the Reno/rural seat, or the Vegas suburb seat) they would weaken the other.  As it stands now, with three districts, Obama won NV-01 in a landslide, NV-03 narrowly, and almost won NV-02.  2-2 is the absolute best Republicans could do and they might have gotten such a map packing Democrats in two Las Vegas districts if they had the legislature.  If Democrats had control of the entire process, they would easily pack Republicans and make a safe 3-1 map.  So with the compromise situation we have, I think it is far more likely than we get a 2-1-1 map (two safe Dem, 1 safe GOP, 1 swing).

Since Heller is vacating, I think Republicans will be happy to strengthen Heck at the expense of the Reno/rural seat.  If they don't, they face a situation where Democrats could conceivably run the table and go 4-0 in a good year.

[ Parent ]
Yup, and with emerging demographics
at least one of the R seats would at least purple over the next few years. User MassGOP (BostonPatriot on RRH) did a NV map that looks similar to a lot of ours here, ref http://www.redracinghorses.com...

As for NV-02, he said  

The problem for Republicans is that Dean Heller's current seat only voted for John McCain by 500 votes, and he now has to lose 81,000 of his constituents from central Nevada, the most Republican part of the state. In other words, there is no way to avoid putting Heller in an Obama district.

[ Parent ]
True about the Reno/rural district
Since it must contract to allow for the new district, and its core is Washoe county (which is trending more Democratic), there is no way for them to make this district safe GOP longterm.  It is guaranteed to lose areas that are more GOP than the district as a whole, effectively making this an Obama district, though still winnable by someone like Heller or even Krolicki in a good year.

Everyone seems to agree though that Heck will get safer as the Democratic areas of his district are sloughed off to make the new Las Vegas-based district.

In the long run, Republicans seem destined to only hold a Henderson/rural district, no matter how this compromise map shakes out.

[ Parent ]
Exactly.
As I said above, IMHO there's no need for certain DC & Carson Dems to get greedy in redistricting. If Angle wins the NV-02 GOP primary, it automatically becomes a Tossup race. And even if Krolicki survives the primary, he might be so bruised from it (much in the same way that Heller was in 2006) that a strong A-List Dem like Kate Marshall can make this a Tossup anyway. (And trust me, Marshall is much better at campaigning than Jill Derby.)

And since Joe Heck is trying to be "moderate" again, GOPers may not be too worried about packing NV-03... Especially if they can't get their act together in NV-02.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
pretty sure those are Las Vegas/Reno area though
I suspect if Sharron got redistricting into a dem seat somehow she would still run for the cow counties district.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Less than one chance in 100 that map will happen
Interesting enough to speculate about, but Rory Reid made sure we couldn't get a gerrymander.
[ Parent ]
I almost want her to get elected for entertainment
Almost. If Heck ends up getting most of the rurals and NV-2 becomes more Reno anchored, then Angle will have even more trouble winning it. If she does pull it off, get ready for 434 to Angle.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
No
Its bad for Democracy when you have idiots like this and Michelle Bachmann spewing lies, no matter how much they benefit us politically.

23, dude, gay, IL-13
[ Parent ]
Id much rather pick-up two seats from redistricting
than have Angle.
[ Parent ]
Will she still send out fundraising pitches to Democrats in other states (like me).
Oh, Sharron.  I await the latest correspondence telling me that if I'm the Republican you've heard I am, I'll readily donate to your cause.  I need another good laugh.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
You get those too??
Sometime around April 2010 I started getting hilarious quantities of GOP direct mail, mostly from the NRSC and Sharrrron Angle.   I wracked my brain trying to figure out what lame-ass centrist I had donated to that would sell my address to the GOP, but I couldn't think of anyone.  The most conservative person I've ever donated to was Larry Kissell, and he's still no Republican.  

I'm glad to know you were getting Sharrrrrron Angle's direct mail too.   Does anyone know why on earth they are sending fundraising letters to committed Democrats?   Do the Koch brothers really have THAT much money??

(Of course, I always checked to see if the return envelope was postage-paid, and if it was I'd write a nasty note on the back and drop it in the mail, empty.  Make the bastards pay postage!  I think I probably took a whole dollar from the Rs that way.)  

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
I, too, got an Angle fundraising mailer last year...after I gave Harry Reid $250. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Lol
Look at 0:17, where she blurs out the "Senate" part of the "Sharron Angle for Senate" sign.
Hahahahaha, and here I was going to compliment
the quality of the announcement video.  Although not her; even with a bazillion-dollar ad team, she still sucks at delivering lines.
[ Parent ]
1:08
But they aren't blurred out at 1:08.  So why blur one place and not another?  
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking if she loses this one, she'll have to move out of the state
One person can only take so much harassment at the grocery store!
that coffee cup 'prop'
simply does not work(it is a clear distraction); this woman's media team is perhaps the worst i have ever seen; who did she hire for this? the folks who brought us o'donnell's 'i am not a witch' ads??
this isn't nearly as bad as O'Donnell's crap
The coffee cup, plus the blurred out "for Senate" are the only things I think are bad ad team wise.  She just sucks at delivering.
[ Parent ]
good points
she is so bad at 'delivery' that she tops the bad 'visuals'(she is truly awful in this video and i bet they spent a lot of coin in production)
[ Parent ]
Some of her senate ads got better as the campaign went along
But the early ones, with all the old white folks sitting in a large conference room, looked like a bunch of midwestern tourists roped into attending a time share presentation!
[ Parent ]
anyone here know the hispanic % in this district?
perhaps we actually want angle to be the repub nominee so we can 'landslide' her(christine o'donnell style)in the general
Well, Angle did win the current NV-02 over Reid by a reasonable margin
Granted, it was against the unpopular Reid in a Republican year, with a district that is probably more Republican than the NV-02 that will eventually emerge. I don't think those are enough to change the result from decent win to landslide loss, though.
[ Parent ]
That was also a battle between
Reno-area Angle and Vegas-area Reid. Such regional distinctions won't matter if she faces Kate Marshall in NV-02.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
NV-02: It's Angle Time! | 56 comments

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