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OH-Gov: Miserable Numbers for Kasich in Do-Over

by: DavidNYC

Tue Mar 15, 2011 at 2:50 PM EDT


I love do-over polls, especially when they show numbers like this, and especially when they feature John Kasich.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/10-13, Ohio voters, no trendlines):

Q: If you could do last fall's election for Governor over again, would you vote for Democrat Ted Strickland or Republican John Kasich?

Ted Strickland (D): 55
John Kasich (R-inc): 40
Undecided: 5

Q: In the election for Governor last year did you vote for Democrat Ted Strickland or Republican John Kasich, or did you not vote in the election?

Ted Strickland (D): 49
John Kasich (R-inc): 46
Didn't vote/don't remember: 5
(MoE: ±4.1%)

Kasich's job approval (the first tested by PPP) is a truly miserable 35-54. PPP also posed a question on SB5, a bill which would institute "right-to-work" in the state of Ohio. This legislation, once law, would almost certainly go before the voters in the form of a ballot question, probably this November. It's definitely helping to drag Kasich down:

Q: If Senate Bill 5, which would limit collective bargaining rights for public employees, passes the legislature and is signed by the Governor there may be a statewide vote this fall on repealing the bill. Would you vote to repeal Senate Bill 5 or would you vote to let the law stand, or are you not sure?

Would vote to repeal SB5: 54
Would vote to let the law stand: 31
Not sure: 15
(MoE: ±4.1%)

Once again, I'll let Tom have the final words:

Of course the reality is that Democratic leaning voters did this to themselves to some extent. It's a small sample but among those who admit they didn't vote last fall, Strickland has a 57-13 advantage over Kaisch. It was a similar story in Wisconsin the other week where Tom Barrett led Scott Walker 59-22 among those who had stayed at home in 2010. Democratic voters simply did not understand the consequences - or didn't care - of their not voting last fall and they're paying the price right now. But the winners of that realization in the long run may be Barack Obama, Sherrod Brown, and Herb Kohl - these states are already looking politically a whole lot more like 2008 than 2010.
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OH-Gov: Miserable Numbers for Kasich in Do-Over | 77 comments
So to answer the obvious question (which I just Googled)
Nope, Kasich can't be recalled. Ohio has no recall provision.

There's some talk about trying to introduce one to the constitution, but it would probably be a difficult process.  

I know
It's a bummer. But we can hate on him for four years, do everything we can to make sure he doesn't recover, and send him back to K Street in 2014. Who's with me???
[ Parent ]
If he helps Obama and Brown
I'm all for his continued presence.
[ Parent ]
Seconded

[ Parent ]
The lesson of the past three or so years
Having power and trying to pass unpopular or unclear legislation is the recipe for doom in the next election.

Politicians who want to hold onto power need to learn that trying to pass popular legislation, and losing, is far better for their (and their party's) longterm popularity.

This was a problem for Obama/Dems nationally, but it is a catastrophe for Republicans in blueish states, where worse than waterdown unpopular legislation, they move to pass full-bore unpopular legislation.  Their fortunes in coming elections are even bleaker.

This is all the more a problem because the problems we face as a country and states are really mostly unsolvable.  So, these days having complete political power is the quickest way to lose political power (unless you only seek to pass 60% popular stuff).

[ Parent ]
Jim Gibbons v.Ohio?
That's what it seems like to me.

Gibbons only won here in 2006 because certain Nevada Democrats couldn't get over Dina Titus beating Jim Gibson in the primary. But as soon as the election was certified, there was a HUGE sense of buyer's remorse. And from the start, Gibbons alienated nearly everyone of both parties in Carson City.

Those last two parts certainly seems to be in play in Ohio right now with Kasich. At the very least, if he loses a referendum on SB 5 this fall, it will be akin to Arnold Schwarzenegger's "Year of Reform" initiatives going down in flames in California in 2005, forcing Arnold to give up the far right BS and shift back to the center. And if Kasich doesn't wisen up after a potential loss at the ballot box, he just becomes another walking political time bomb like Gibbons was here.

Does the Ohio GOP see this? Will they be OK with Kasich moving to the middle, like the California GOP had to realize for Arnold to win reelection in 2006? Or will they want to just rid themselves of him entirely, as the Nevada GOP did with Gibbons last year?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
We can also
use this hatred to strengthen out position in the legislature, if not take it back entirely.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
our*
n/t

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
Not hard to amend the constitution...
50% vote referendum like in CA.  Getting it on the ballot is the tough part, but no tougher than SB5 repeal.
[ Parent ]
I don't believe in recalls anyway
It's bad precedent for every dip in a governor's popularity to spark a recall effort.  
[ Parent ]
Even when they're doing horrendous
things to their state?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I respect that.
As a survivor of the horrendously insane 2003 California Recall Election, I can tell you there was way too much crazy and not enough common sense being used. And look at what ended up happening.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Me neither
I think Democrats should be harnessing this stuff to win regularly scheduled elections. But I do understand where people are coming from when they support recalls. Still, this was all so predictable and avoidable. Maybe it will persuade left leaning voters to fulfill their civic duty in future. Sigh.
[ Parent ]
I support the Wisconsin recall while being troubled by its implications
Mainly, that it's going to make things even more poisonous between the parties in the states that allow recall election

That said, successful recalls haven't been seen in the past for the specific reason that rarely have governors been perceived as supporting the polarizing policies Walker is supporting in Wisconsin.

[ Parent ]
I said Snyder is even worse.
He appears to be conciliatory, but pushes through even more draconian laws in his state.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
His budget
Is something I can't even believe is legal. Maybe he will turn out to be such a disaster that voters will quit believing the nonsense that Businessmen can run good governments. Government should not be run just like a business, that is one of the essential traits of fascist policy.  
[ Parent ]
*I'd say


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I used to feel the same way about recalls.
But then I figured that these things probably regulate themselves. If you need to get a sufficiently large number of signatures in order to have someone recalled, then the only way it's going to happen is if the governor or legislators do something that is against the wishes of the population. I think that's what we are seeing in Wisconsin.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Ohio CAN have a do-over: How to throw the bums out This Year
Ohio doesn't have a recall law, but we do citizen's intiatives - which we can use to change the end date of governor Kasich's term - and any other state officials too - including the legislature. We could even do it parliamentary style and end every term of office and then elect a completely new government.

The initiative would be an amendment to the state constitution - which gets amended all the time for surprisingly minor matters. The process is no more difficult than a recall would be.

Details here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

and here: http://www.columbusunderground...

[ Parent ]
The partisan breakdown is D+8
Exactly the same as 2008. The exit poll in November was dead even. The Obama numbers and those for Sherrod Brown should be very interesting.
Maybe Obama should have campaigned harder in 2010
He did plenty, don't get me wrong, but I think OH-Guv and PA-Sen were the 2 races where Obama should have lived in October of 2010.  Might have kept both in Dem hands (maybe not, but I like Strickland and Sestak so I always like scenarios where they're still in office).
[ Parent ]
The National Democrats never gave them a reason to vote
And campaigning wasn't going to do it, I don't think, as they had nothing to campaign on.  It's hard to talk about how great you've done when you trash all the pieces of legislation that got passed.  Looking at the Blue Dogs/moderates, as a voter I'd ask, "so you vote to allow this party to be in power, hate their legislation, don't vote for it, and you want me to vote for you?  Why?"  I'd just vote for the Republican if you both think everything is going the wrong way as the other person will actually ensure it changes.

2010 was just simply stupid and looking at those OH numbers proves it so.  We managed to the find the perfect platform that not only alienates our base, but also pisses off moderates.  Pat on the back everyone in DC.

[ Parent ]
Wha? National Demcrats trashed their own legislation?
Only like four Blue Dogs actually trashed passed legislation in campaigns.  
[ Parent ]
not comforted by these polls
Kasich has plenty of time to turn things around. Terry Branstad's approval rating was in the 30s during Iowa's 1992 budget crisis, but he was re-elected in 1994.

It's really too bad that Strickland lost. He was a good governor and deserved to be re-elected. On the other hand, it's a miracle it was as close as it was, given how high Ohio's unemployment rate is and how weak Democratic turnout was across the Midwest.

Agree about Kasich
But realistically, he may not have time to recover before 2012, anyway, which should help Brown and Obama.  
[ Parent ]
But of course
1994 was a monster GOP wave year. You're not suggesting 2012 will be, too?
[ Parent ]
The 2010 elections will be a gift in 12/14.
When Obama and many democratic senators are up next to these uberly unpopular republican governors. Yes things can turn around but I don't think the public ever expected this much of a rightward turn and I don't think they will be forgiven specially in the states where collective bargining is being thrown out.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
The best is going to be 2016
The GOP won so many seats with horrible candidates that would never survive in a presidential election year, it is going to be hilarious.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
That's assuming we win the presidency in 2016
I could easily see weak incumbents like Roy Blunt and Rand Paul, or even someone like Mark Kirk if he keeps his head down survive if the Republican presidential candidate wins by a decent margin.  Of course if we have a year like 2004, let alone 2008, then those guys are in for a load of trouble.

NC-06/NC-04
[ Parent ]
I doubt under any circumstance
Mark Kirk will win. He'll either retire like Peter Fitzgerald or go down in defeat.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Most likely the latter
I just named him as a hypothetical, because if we can beat someone that conservative in Illinois then we have problems.  A better example would have been Rick Santorum being reelected in 2000 even as Gore won the state and the prospect of Pat Toomey winning again in 2016.

NC-06/NC-04
[ Parent ]
Mark Kirk and Pat Toomey both barely
won in the best election year in decades. 2016 being a presidential election year will be more favorable to Democrats even if the loose the Presidency. I'm not going to say I know he will loose, but I certainly believe he will.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Lazy Dems
This is the story of America's life, at the moment.  Here is a comment from a protestor on the capitol lawn here in Michigan, today, about his vote for Governor Snyder:

"I voted for Snyder and I'm exceptionally disappointed," said Tom Foghino, 66, a protester from Kalamazoo. "I wouldn't have voted for him if he announced this in his campaign."

So, along with Dems who simply didn't care about the consquences at the time, you also have a group of independents and non-partisans who enthusiastically voted for people simply because they weren't Democrats not really caring who they were electing.  And, the rest of us have to suffer along.

We're expecting another 3,000 folks, at least, for tomorrows rally, and a possible occupation of the capitol.

25, independent liberal, MI-08

Exactly.
I've always failed to see why so many Dems and independents I know (and a few here at SSP) have bought into the idea that this man is somehow some magical Rockefeller or Milliken Republican, when the reality is that he never gave any indication he was anything but a standard, corporate country club Republican hack with no grasp on people's practical real life situation or political reality.

I'm from Kalamazoo and I was ashamed to learn how many Democrats I know, 18 through 80, who planned on voting for Snyder without thinking of the consequences for redistricting, the EFM (an important issue even before his latest move), the MDCH or vacancies on the state supreme court (and forgot that there's more on the ballot then just the governor's race). And now we have this crap he's pushing on us to deal with. He's just Engler 2.0, One Tough Nerd™ Edition.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
You mean Michigan Democrats
weren't excited to vote for Virg Bennero. But the blogs told me they totally would!
[ Parent ]
You are on a sarcasm role!


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I'm a comedian in real life
but seriously, I saw so much pimping of Virg last year and then when he won and polled terribly, everyone just forgot about him.

I mean I'm really sick of listening to "America will vote for this REAL Democrat" only to see them go out with a whimper and listen to ridiculous reasons as to why.

There was no logical reason for union voters to NOT vote for Virg, just like there was no reason for them to not vote for Tom Barret, Ted Strickland, Walter freakin' Mondale.  

[ Parent ]
Well in Michigan's case, Virg did no worse than anyone else would have......
Maybe if the L.G., John Cherry, never dropped out, he would've lost by less, but he still would've lost, probably (or almost certainly???) by double-digits.  The other guy who ran, Dillon, would've been crushed.  Michigan Dems had nothing for a candidate.

It happens sometimes, sadly.  I and my VA Dem cohorts experienced much the same in VA-Gov 2009, when Creigh Deeds, as bad as he was, still might have been no worse than McAuliffe or Moran.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Anyone who wants to see how much of an utter failure Dillon would...
Have been as the Democratic nominee just needs to look at the  Democratic primary map from 2010:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org...

He failed to rally ANY significant part of the Democratic base around him, or draw any center-right independents or moderate Republicans he talked about winning over (who could've voted in the primary in our open primary system). He didn't even win his home county of Wayne (though he lives in Redford, not Detroit, he had the backing of basically the entire Democratic infrastructure in Detroit, and didn't win a single county in the east side of the state).

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
I don't think any Democrat would've won last year...
But I don't think Bernero ever generated the same excitement among activists/base voters that candidates like Sestak or Perriello did; it was more of a "I can't believe Andy Dillon is going to be the Democratic nominee" feeling which Bernero took advantage of. I wouldn't mistake a few comments online or segments on "The Ed Show" as some groundswell of enthusiasm for Bernero.

And I completely agree with you on your second paragraph, but I don't think that's why so many Dems and Dem-leaning independents voted for Snyder; I think the bad economy, eight years of Granholm, and Snyder being a generally acceptable Rorschach test (along with having a good resume, at least on paper, and running a good, well funded campaign) for Michigan voters that generally need to find a good reason to pull the lever for a Republican were the reasons Bernero lost, not any sort of purity test or anything else. Besides his "America's Angriest Mayor" shtick, I fail to see any issue where Bernero was demonstrably farther to the left than Granholm or Jim Blanchard.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
And a "less real" Democrat would have done any better?
Methinks not. As koolbens says, it's pretty impossible imagining a Dem winning the MI-Gov race in 2010, esp. against Snyder.
[ Parent ]
No
but I'm tired of hearing "we need better Dems" when they don't win either.

All we're doing is ignoring whatever the real problem is.  

[ Parent ]
Well
If you're going to use 2010 as a metric... not really sure what to say. A lot of very good and bad candidates lost last year. Losing in the biggest bloodbath in generations is not really dispositive of much.
[ Parent ]
Well, the problem with the term
'Better Democrat' is that people take it as 'more progressive Democrat' when it is pretty much proven that conservative Democrats are more electable. For theory I point to the median voter theorem, for practice I could show some regression output if anyone's interested- having a conservative ideology rating is a statistically significant plus for Dem incumbents.

So the notion that we need to run 'Better' as in more liberal Democrats is bullshit for most swing districts. In districts where candidate quality doesn't matter because they're so liberal that Cynthia McKinney would beat Zombie Eisenhower (like in Lipinski's or Lynch's districts), there, sure, run liberals.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
But, then the conservative democrat...
Goes into congress, bashes his party, stifles his party's successes, drags the party into the gutter, and ends up losing the term as he tries unsuccessfully to play both sides pissing off independents and demoralizing his base.

Not particularly "better" in any sense.

Of course there are conservative democrats and conservative democrats--people like Mark Pryor who make little noise and are "better" for both themselves and their party or folks like Ben Nelson who by their obnoxiousness drag everyone down especially themselves.

[ Parent ]
If Conservative Democrats were 'unsuccessfully'
trying to play both sides they would not outperform the liberals. If anything, the Conservatives who lose badly are the ones who try to appeal the base, aka Nelson and Lincoln and Pryor by voting for Health Care Reform. The Conservadems in the House didn't do that and fared much better- losing by 5 in R+15 seats instead of by 20 in R+8 seats or so... or, god forbid, by 20 in R+2 seats like some guy called Alan from Florida.

It's another question on whether electing Conservative Democrats is good for getting a liberal Agenda through Congress. A smaller, more homogenous caucus might be better suited for that. But in terms of winning elections, the more conservative, the better.


18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Two ends of the argument
Alan Grayson and Tom Perillio.

Both are "better Democrats".

Both ran and lost races for re-election in districts with modestly R PVIs. Both ran against relatively generic Rs. But Perillio came a lot closer.

Perillio wasn't a 'better' Democrat than Grayson, he was simply a better candidate.

OTOH, there's Blanche Lincoln and Joe Manchin. Most progressives would define both as "worse Democrats". Both ran against relatively generic Rs. Did Lincoln ever attack Boozmean? Perhaps she did, but I never noticed. Manchin certainly attacked Reese, as was well documented here. Manchin was simply a better candidate.

[ Parent ]
It's not that easy.
Yeah, you can make a lot of anecdotal points.
But once you run a regression on 2010 results vs. Incumbency, PVI and Ideology (which are all highly significant and highly explanatory), being Conservative is a plus for Dems, being Liberal is a minus, once you acoount for PVI and Incumbency.

Some of the most overperforming Dems are Lipinski, Lynch, Bright, Taylor, Minnick and Matheson. Pretty much everyone in the Top 20 is a prominent Blue Dog or a California Dem challenger- seems to be a state effect.

The oh-so-great Perriello overperformed expectations by 2 points. He should have gotten 45.5% of the Two-Way vote in a seat like that, and he got 47.5% of the Two-Way. Big Deal. People like Matheson and Bright did it more to the tune of 15-20 points.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
good info, thank you
Is the data you cite documented somewhere? I'd like to link to it in the future.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Yer gonna need to link to a writeup or spreadsheet.
[ Parent ]
You do realize, yes
That your argument cuts both ways. If being a liberal is supposedly a minus, then Perriello did quite well to outperform at all, whereas conservative out-performance should be routine and expected, under your model.

Anyhow, I'll be really curious to see your full spreadsheet.

[ Parent ]
I'm not at the computer with the spreadsheet right now
but I can post it as a diary within the next 2-3 days.

Here's an article outlining the gist of it. It's own work of course, including the ideology scores which I've been meaning to write about, didn't get to that though yet.

http://stochasticdemocracy.blo...

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
It's not that candidate quality doesn't matter at all.
It's more that ideology is a huge part- without running the numbers, I'd say at least 70-80% of candidate quality, and being conservative is good for that 70-80% part.

Running quirky ads like Perriello does and being an active campaigner helps, much it's not really worth more than 1-2 points, and of course, we're talking about regressions. There's always some unexplained variance.


18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
It's a good taste, and seems credible on the surface
I hope your upcoming diary explains how the "Theoretical Dem Vote" is calculated, along with the influence associated with the "Ideology Dem" and "Ideology GOP" factors.

Not sure what you mean by your first sentence -- as written, it suggests that candidate quality is related to ideology, which I don't automatically agree with.

[ Parent ]
Sure. Theoretical Dem Vote is the Regression.
The regression gives a formula for Expected Dem Vote Share, using Incumbency and PVI. Which explains almost 90% of the variance in the 2010 elections. The other 10% are other factors, such as local issues and candidate quality.

It turns out that when taking ideology into account (our scores are most comparable to DW-NOMINATE scores) that is significant too, as in, ideology accounts for another 3-4% of variance.
Conservative Incumbents (no way known to me to calculate ideology of congressional challengers) do better than they should in their districts if you don't look at ideology. Liberal Incumbents do worse. That suggests a relation between Candidate Quality and Ideology.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
FWIW, if I were the DCCC recruitment chair, I'd probably
try to get moderates for about D+2-D+6 districts, conservatives for every district worse than D+2 and Communists for everything better than D+6- no need for mainstream liberals. The moderates and Conservatives ensure a Dem majority for everything non-controversial and procedural, and the Communists provide reliable votes for everything Leadership (drawn from the more liberal wing of the moderates) puts up. Lipinskis and Lynchs get eliminated.

(That's not how it works in reality of course, I realize that as a German having read about the Communist Party of Germany in the Weimar Republic. But I want people who tie the party line 100%, without breaking away even on a post office naming bill)

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Communists?
I'm not sure you could identify many true Socialists in the party!
[ Parent ]
Democratic Socialist.
Of course only one person would admit that and he's not even a Democrat.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
We just need one per district. We could recruit them from the
ranks of the Peace and Freedom Party or something. But really, I'd be fine with a bunch of Sanders/Weiner clones, with the latter castrated on the Israel/Palestine issue.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Then again, my favorite plan for utilizing Dem majorities isn't
a make-it or break-it for on Health Care, or Jobs, or the Budget. I want to use Article Four, Section Three, to create 10,000 new states in Washington DC- each of them with a solid Democratic Representative and two Senators.

The next step would obviously be expanding the Supreme Court to a size of 500 justices, with all seats being filled by Presidential appointment and easily confirmed by the 20,053-47 Democratic Senate.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Let's avoid Israel here
Thanks.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I hope he has some better slogan ideas than Murray.
[ Parent ]
Sure, I'm not talking policy.
I just thought that Weiner is deviating from the official Democratic Party platform, but I could be mistaken, I haven't looked it up. But I apologize.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Weiner is a mainstream liberal
An influx of Communists is the last thing Democrats need. I hope you are joking.
[ Parent ]
I'm not really talking about Communists.
That's more my attempt to mirror Glenn Beck. I'm talking about people who tow the Party line 100% and are generally aggressive about their liberalism. Weiner fits that bill. I would have said Grayson or Kucinich, if I could stand Grayson personally and if Kucinich didn't actually vote against Democratic proposals (a good reason for why using Communists wouldn't work, they'd probably find reasons to vote 80% with GOP leadership).

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Your analysis is very interesting
I would suggest, however, that you run the same thing with a few more election cycles included--maybe 2002-2010 or 2004-2010.  We could see if there was anything "weird" about 2010 (or 2008 or 2006) that this model captures.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
I don't have 2002 certified election results, but
I think I could do 2004-2010. It would be interesting, but it'd have to wait for a little bit, right now I'm preparing 2012 GOP primary projections. (BTW, does anyone know if there's already a definitive calendar and if all states have decided on WTA vs. Proportional Representation? Getting Percentages for every candidate/matchup by state is not too hard, converting that into delegates is).

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
I never realized
what a fine sense of snark you have.

In any case, as for models "who tow the party line 100%", I'd look for a rep with a 100% progressive punch score.... But there is no such rep, and that's the nature of being a member of the Democratic party.

In contrast, per conservative.org, there are maybe 75+ Rs with a 100% ACU rating.

[ Parent ]
I never realized
what a fine sense of snark you have.

In any case, as for models "who tow the party line 100%", I'd look for a rep with a 100% progressive punch score.... But there is no such rep, and that's the nature of being a member of the Democratic party.

In contrast, per conservative.org, there are maybe 75+ Rs with a 100% ACU rating.

[ Parent ]
Progressive Punch scores measure how often people vote with
the Liberal wing of the party, no? I'd be more interested in people who vote with Leadership, as that's easier to control. I'm sure Pelosi would have close to 100% on that.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Or someone like Jose Serrano. nt


18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Generally, the WaPo database is closer
to what you're describing, ref
http://projects.washingtonpost...

But Pelosi only has 94% there.

(I don't know if there's a factor related to missed votes that might be skewing the results. Evidence suggests such, e.g. for the 111th Congress, Kristin Gillibrand gets a 4% score.)

Ironically, the only two with 100% there are John Boehner, and shirtless Chris Lee.

[ Parent ]
I think that's how it works
try to get moderates for about D+2-D+6 districts, conservatives for every district worse than D+2 and Communists for everything better than D+6- no need for mainstream liberals.

I think there are very few "Blue Dogs" in any D+0 or more districts.  

[ Parent ]
Not every Conservative Dem
who bashed the party lost, and many who did only did narrowly.

Hell Bobby Bright won 49% of the vote in a heavy Republican year in one of the most Republican districts in the country, and he was the biggest basher.

Bobby Bright's 49% in a 63% McCain district beats out Alan Grayson's 38% in a 52% Obama district anyday

[ Parent ]
Bernero
would have caught fire against Hoekstra or Cox. I'd count on it but Snyder hit all of the right buttons for moderates. He campaigned as a nice intellectual and actually had a compromising tone at a time when Republicans were almost universally firebreathing. Then Bernero came off as the angry partisan hack. I'd expect against someone as unappealing as Hoekstra that Bernero would do really well.

Snyder was an outside, campaigned as a moderate, had a compromising image/tone, had a cool narrative and message. He even ended up winning some quiet support from the Democratic establishment. Basically he was the perfect candidate for 2010, it should come as no surprise that Bernero's truthful attacks would bounce right off him.  

No Dem
Just like it was going to be hard for a Republican to win in Minnesota or California, it was going to be hard for any Dem to win in Michigan.

Something being missed as a major factor in many of these races is that along with the wave was what is usual party turnover.  Michigan mirrors the national picture, generally, in terms of turnover.  That is to say that incumbent governors rarely lose, but after their second term (and before Michigan installed term limits, third term), the office usually switches to the other party.

Another thing I think people forget about last years governors race, here, was that the national party and other Democratic outfits saw the state as a lost cause from the beginning.  Bernero had no funds to work with, and state residents in the state hit hardest by the economy over the last decade, didn't contribute enough to either side in this state.

On the other side, millionaire Snyder was a self-funder who also got plenty of outside money.  Bernero didn't lose for lack of trying to excite.  In fact, the joke in-state has always been that the guy has never seen a camera he doesn't like.  He tried parlaying his mini-celebrity status to something bigger knowing that it was a hail mary.  He should be thanked for how enthusiastic he was know how long his chances were, and how half-assedly the UAW and others worked on his behalf.  And now their sorry.

25, independent liberal, MI-08

[ Parent ]
While
we're talking about idiotic GOP governors let's talk about Paul LeTeabag. LePage protected his own pension from the pension changes he's trying to push through the legislature. The guy even has the gall to call for "shared sacrifice" from everyone....except himself.

And the savings from these pension reforms isn't going to shore up the pension fund, its being used to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy. I could understand why this guy managed to sneak through a fractured field but someone want to tell me how Mainers gave this guy GOP majorities in both the state house and the state senate?

http://thinkprogress.org/2011/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

OH-Gov: Miserable Numbers for Kasich in Do-Over | 77 comments

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