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A Democratic Kansas

by: Alizarin

Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 7:51 AM EST

In a similar vein to my previous diary "A Democratic Nebraska" I moved a state south to see how Democratic a Kansan congressional district can be. However, early on I noticed that it was actually possible to make two districts in Kansas with a democratic lean, albeit a very, very slight democratic lean. As in the past the numbers are hand tabulated and should be quite accurate.

CD1(Blue): 53.5% Obama 73/9/10 W/B/H

The blight on the landscape that is CD1 stretches its hideous legs out from its nominal centre in Emporia to swallow up Pittsburg, Parsons, Wichita, Hutchinson, Manhattan, Junction City, Topeka, and parts of Lawrence whilst nimbly avoiding republican counties with any sort of significant population.

CD2(Green): 53.5% Obama 76/9/10 W/B/H

Compared in to CD1 CD2 is has a positively tidy shape. Based in Kansas City (the part that is in Kansas anyway) it runs up along the Missouri through Leavenworth to Atchison and south into the more Democratic parts of Johnson county before turning west into the heart of Lawrence.

CD3(Dark Magenta): 35.0% Obama 88/2/5 W/B/H

South-eastern Kansas wrapping around CD1. It would be a neater district if it was just southern Kansas and didn't turn north-east at Hutchinson, honestly I just didn't want to reassign the precincts south of Manhattan.

CD4(Red): 29.6% Obama 83/1/13 W/B/H

The rest of Kansas. Mostly the western and northern parts of the state but it does follow the Oklahoma state line quite a way east.

The single so called "super-democratic" district turned out to be 57.6% Obama (74/10/11 W/B/H) and appears below.

Alizarin :: A Democratic Kansas

Tags: Kansas, gerrymander, Democratic, (All Tags)

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A Democratic Kansas | 11 comments

Very Nice

Of course those two districts would be swing districts, however getting two districts like that in Kansas is impressive!

by: TXMichael @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 14:15:41 PM UTC

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Rough

These districts look somewhat like some aggressive VRA gerrymanders; at least the blue one.

by: notifier @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 16:44:45 PM UTC

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Nice dream map but never going to happen

by: ramacher @ Fri Mar 11, 2011 at 23:44:28 PM UTC

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Very impressed

I'm always impressed with your effort. Doing maps for partisan data is not easy and its boring.

Great work!

18, Dem, PA-7

by: Warning_Crazy @ Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 00:28:35 AM UTC

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Very impressed

I'm always impressed with your effort. Doing maps for partisan data is not easy and its boring.

Great work!

18, Dem, PA-7

by: Warning_Crazy @ Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 00:30:19 AM UTC

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Thanks!

While the number crunching is boring it's quite exciting to finally produce a map that you weren't sure could be done. Kind of like solving a puzzle.

by: Alizarin @ Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 03:36:48 AM UTC

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The Big Question in Kansas is what to do with Lawrence?

Or should the College towns of Lawrence and Manhatten be divided and put in the same or different seats?

Map will look similar to current and will be likely 4R-0D

by: rdelbov @ Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 01:15:12 AM UTC

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Why republicans could

produce a safe 4R-0D Kansas they probably won't. As I understand it moderates in the Kansas Republican Party wouldn't like four districts of equal, and very high, republican PVIs since that would leave them unable to win primaries against more conservative candidates. Only a radical redistricting involving splitting Wyandotte and Johnson counties into separate districts could keep the current CD3 from remaining within reach for the right democrat.

The real question is what to do with Lawrence. Maybe absorb the entire county into the current 2nd CD and then have the 2nd CD shed population to the western CD1. But which part? Some counties in the south-east? The northern counties clear to the Missouri? Manhattan, even if it would violate communities of interest?

by: Alizarin @ Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 03:34:45 AM UTC

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safe 4R might be a stretch

I can't recall if I said "safe" or "Likely". Kansas is not ever going to be safe "R" for house seats as I can recall 3/4 house seats(current) being held by D's. Heck it was 2-2 just a few years ago.

In wave or open seat situations the GOP could lose several of these seats.

The best the GOP can do is divide out Kansas in such a way to likely produce 4R seats. I probably misspoke-too lazy to check what I said. I would probably suggest continuing to split the Lawrence area and maybe move a bit of Northern Wynadotte county as well. Just do the edges plus move the Topeka seat a bit Eastward to more marginal area.

by: rdelbov @ Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 15:39:03 PM UTC

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Lawrence plus Kansas City

My guess is it's about 55% Obama.
After the 2008 elections the Republicans would have wanted this, because it strengthens them in KS-2, which they just picked up. But after the 2010 elections the Republicans would never agree to this. The Democrats would want this but they can't have it.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

by: duffman @ Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 05:25:10 AM UTC

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Wherefore art thou, Dennis Moore?

If Dennis Moore had held on for one more cycle, we could've gotten this map, or something close to it. Although supposedly it's a goal of the legislature (or at least it was) to keep both Fort Riley and Fort Leavenworth in the same district (KS-02), so it would've just been Wyandotte Co.+Lawrence+most of Johnson County. That would've been an awesome district for KS Democrats, you'd be looking at about a D+2 or D+3.

But if you really wanna ghettoize Democrats, shrink the part of Johnson County it holds (anything inside the I-435 loop is turning blue, so keep that) in order to send an arm to grab urban Topeka. You could get a district like that up to D+10, maybe even more.

Urban Topeka 60-40 D (pop. ~150,000)
Urban Lawrence 75-25 D (pop. ~100,000)
Wyandotte 75-25 D (pop. ~150,000)
Johnson County* 55-45 D (pop. ~325,000 ... of the county's most left-ish residents and you could tweak the boundary lines to get the most heavily D parts in there)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

by: arealmlc @ Sun Mar 13, 2011 at 21:20:28 PM UTC

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