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NM-Sen: Lt. Gov. John Sanchez to Become Second Republican to Enter Race (UPDATED)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 12:45 PM EST


Looks like we - and by we, I mean they - will have a serious fight on our hands:

New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez is poised to join former Rep. Heather Wilson in the Republican primary for the Land of Enchantment's open Senate seat, according to GOP sources. The move sets up the likelihood of heated GOP primary that could test the loyalties of newly elected Gov. Susana Martinez (R).

Sanchez, who is putting together a campaign team and plans a trip to Washington, D.C., later this month, ran on a ticket with Martinez in their successful 2010 campaign.

Sanchez obviously wants to present himself as the "true conservative" alternative to the apostate Wilson, but he's not an especially impressive figure and thus he might not be the last person to enter the race. Teabaggers are rarely satisfied with establishment types, even archetypally wingnutty ones, so I could see a "true, TRUE conservative" also trying to make a go of it.

Sanchez does have one important attribute: money. In fact, he's self-funded most of his campaigns. Of course, this is a two-edged sword - the sort of laziness that's borne of self-funding can really hurt you in a low-turnout primary where grassroots excitement is a key factor. When people give money to your campaign, they are also buying in to it. You create a cadre of individuals who really care about the outcome and will often do more than just donate a single time. We'll see whether Sanchez understands this.

UPDATE: Grr - looks like the fight right now is actually between Roll Call and The Hill. The latter publication is taking exception to the former's initial report, saying:

New Mexico Republicans expect the Senate primary field to grow, but an associate close to Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) said an announcement about his intentions isn't "imminent." ...

A report on Thursday indicated that Sanchez was "poised" to enter the race. But a close associate of the lt. governor called that "premature."

"Expectations of an imminent announcement are premaure," the associate of Sanchez told The Ballot Box, noting the Republican was focused on the current legislative session, which runs through noon on March 19.
DavidNYC :: NM-Sen: Lt. Gov. John Sanchez to Become Second Republican to Enter Race (UPDATED)
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NM-Sen: Lt. Gov. John Sanchez to Become Second Republican to Enter Race (UPDATED) | 46 comments
Not what Republicans wanted obviously
This could end up been a rough primary like the last one was.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Two things worth noting
First, it's not entirely clear from the post, but the LG in New Mexico is a running mate and not a separately elected position as it is in many states.

Second, Sanchez ran and won the GOP primary for Governor back in 2002 (and was beat by Richardson), so he already has success in GOP-land.  

So he won one race almost ten years ago.
and was selected to be LG (or did you mean it's like illinois used to be where you win a primary and are merged with the ticket?).  That's not exactly sterling resume of experience, so he'll probably do well with the tea party, but as was mentioned, he may not know enough about campaigning to win.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
NM LG
is elected on  a ticket, not a shotgun marriage kind of situation like IL

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
Yes it is
Just like IL. The Lt. Gov candidates run in a separate primary, and they are on a ticket in the general.  
[ Parent ]
However
With Richardson running Sanchez was really seen as a sacrificial lamb. 2002 was when Richardson was popular and he was the 800 pound gorilla in the room. NM's GOP bench has been thin for a while but Sanchez wasn't given a lot of attention given that it was highly likely he was going to lose. Sanchez barely even cleared 39% of the vote in a purple state to illustrate my point.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Well, I think the New Mexico GOP went from doing a decent job in recruitment last year
To making it impossible to win the seat. This, by the way, is probably partially caused by Steve Pearce, he hates Heather Wilson and I'll bet that he prodded Sanchez to get in.

I said it before, but Wilson was never going to get a cleared field to run for Senate.

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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Getcha popcorn ready...
The GOP is getting about the best candidates that they could have in this situation. Still Heinrich or Balderas barring a shitty campaign and/or an Obama collapse will be favored to hold the seat.

I know that the question will be coming so I am going to try and answer it right now. Latinos won't vote for Sanchez because he is Latino if he is nominated vs. Heinrich. Heinrich overwhelmingly won Latinos in his tight 2010 race against John Barela. Susanna Martinez also overwhelmingly lost Latinos against Diane Denish. NM is a state that is quite used to electing Latino statewide office holders so the aura is not there.

I am betting that by the end of the month Heinrich and/or Balderas will declare for the race. Balderas would make a great Governor's candidate in 2014 if he passes. A Senate seat for decades can be very tempting though. Domenici and Bingaman both lasted several terms. Udall isn't going anywhere so now is the time to jump at the race if you ever wanted to be a Senator, this has to be what young Heinrich and Balderas are thinking.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

Yep, sounds about right to me
Still kinda disappointed that Steve Pearce won't insert his lunacy into the race though, I would have loved to see Wilson vs. Pearce: Part II "The Burque in Albuquerque" (you try making a rhyme with Albuquerque :P)

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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Haha
Makes me long for being back home for sure! Hearing 'Burque made me laugh.

PS: If Heinrich leaves the name I hear popping up is Eric Griego to run for his House seat? Is he a top-tier recruit?  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
He'd be a decent candidate, much as I can remember
He's got a decent base of support for a primary (he came in second to Marty Chavez in the mayoral race in 2005, thank you nonpartisan elections...) he'd definitely stronger than Richard Romero (who might try once more).

Speaking of Mayor Marty, I don't necessarily think he will, but I'd definitely keep an eye on him trying to run for senate again, and unlike Balderas or any competent New Mexico politician, he will try to turn the race into Latino vs. White guy if he runs against Heinrich for the race which would not be helpful.

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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Chavez
Last I have heard Marty is living in my neck of the woods. I really hope that he is done with politics as you are right he will turn it into a racial thing. Also please no to Romero. You lost twice buddy. Third time is not the charm!

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Oh god
Not Marty Chavez, he who "sleeps on concrete"!
[ Parent ]
The only thing worse than Marty Chavez is Richard Berry n/t


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
How about
The Herky-Jerky in Albuquerque?  Quirky Turkey?

Honestly, I'd probably just go with "Clash of the Douchebag Titans."

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
"Clash of the Quirky Albuquerque Turkeys" is what I'll go with from now on n/t
Or "The Albuquerque Turkey vs. the Paper Tiger" (bonus to anyone who knows why Steve Pearce is the "paper tiger"!)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
....
Because he's Charlie Sheen. He's winning and he loves the tiger blood.


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think we're looking at an '08 replay with Wilson again losing
That is, unless Pearce or another Tea Partier enters. At that point, I think Wilson, who can at least manage mid-40s, prevails. Of course, by that point, she won't have a dime to her name and the Democrat will still win by double-digits. FWIW, I actually think Sanchez is a far better candidate than Pearce was in '08. I suspect whoever the GOP nominee is will lose, but by more like 15 points, not by 2 to 1.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
The big reason why the GOP almost certainly do a bit better than in 2008 is this...
There isn't another Tom Udall for the Democrats to run, that's probably worth a few points to the Republicans.

Still, New Mexico Republicans are a bigger mess than their 2010 performance suggests, so I don't see them doing any better than a 10 point loss this time around.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Can you elaborate?
I'm fairly confident in our ability to hold this seat, even if it's by something like a 51 to 49 margin.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Well, in 2008, Udall was the 800 pound gorilla in the room
He'd run a statewide race before (Attorney General), was (and still is) extremely popular, plus the Udall name in the southwest is golden.

If you meant about the Republicans, well the biggest problem with Wilson is that she's not as popular as she once was. Her backers will say that she can do well in Albuquerque, but I doubt that's the case anymore (the area really has changed from under her and the US Attorney scandal hurt her popularity more than people realize).

Sanchez is also a retread, he was the sacrificial lamb who Bill Richardson crushed in the open seat in 2002. Given his entrance seems to be partially to win the senate race and partially to screw over Heather Wilson, it can't end well for Republicans.

Sadly for NM Republicans, that's their viable bench, outside of Susana Martinez and Albuquerque mayor Richard Berry (neither of whom will run). Remember the rejects who ran in the gubernatorial primaries? Had one of them won instead of Martinez, Diane Denish would be governor right now, period.

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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
So how bad is it?
Are we talking Nevada GOP bad? California GOP bad? How disorganized are they?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I'd say something closer to Nevada...
The Republicans have a base of support that is extremely right-wing (the rich fundamentalist Northeast Heights in Albuquerque and "Little Texas" where the white vote is almost as bad as the white vote in rural Texas).

Steve Pearce's hand was in John Sanchez running, he doesn't like Heather Wilson and would have run himself if it meant screwing her over (Wilson doesn't fit in with Steve Pearce's idea of the perfect Republican I suppose).

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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Sounds like a recipe for disaster...
For the NM GOP. I like.  ;-)

So how big of a base does Wilson still have in Albuquerque? Will it be enough to counter Sanchez's appeal among the fundies?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Albuquerque's northeast heights is Wilson's base
They're a big enough part of a Republican primary that she's not going to just disappear

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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
By bad NM GOP performance
I assume you refer the fact that they did not sweep state offices (they picked up SoS, but lost Land Commissioner) or the State House?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Well, I guess Wilson can take some solace in Sanchez already having campaign communication problems


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Did she run a decent campaign against Pearce?
What I mean is did she lose just because he was the more conservative choice or was there more too it? All I remember is laughing at Tom Udall's poll margin against either.
[ Parent ]
My sense of NM is this.
Sanchez would get more of the rural conservative vote-similar to Pierce/Wilson 2008.  Sanchez would benefit from the Martinez/teaparty connections. Wilson has the old establishment while Sanchez would get the new.  I still wonder why Wilson would jump in if Sanchez was committed.  Who knows?

For a GE--Wilson would run better against Baldaras then Heinrich.  Sanchez would run better against Heinrich but a little less so against Baldaras.  My sense is that Sanchez-Heinrich would be a replay of the Gov 2010 race.  As a liberal hispanic Baldaras would be weaker against Wilson in the rural areas.  

I think 2008 will not be prologue for 2012.  Wilson-Baldaras or Sanchez-Heinrich would look like a down to the wire races to me.  

Not 2008 or 2010 but 2012
Though since state and federal races are quite different and it is another presidential year if it is either then closer to 2008 looks more likely. In result if not margin.
[ Parent ]
Why not be closer
to 2004 then 2008?  

Is there a rule that turnout (mix of voters)  for the current Presidential election cycle has to match the previous one?  If so how does one explain 2008 turnout in light of 2004?

is there a rule that indies must vote in a Presidential year like they did in the previous one?  If so why was 2008 not like 2004?  

There were too aspects to the Obama sweep in 2008.

1. Big D turnout while the R turnout was subdued.  There is no guarantee that this scenerio plays out in 2012.  You could see equal ferver-ala 2004.

2. The Indies turned to D's and to Obama.  These fickled folks turned differently in 2010.  Is anyone certain how they end up voting in 2012?

As I said its not clear to me that 2012 in NM will look like 2004 or 2008.  

[ Parent ]
2004 vs. 2008
Keep in mind that Bush was a pro-immigration President and made efforts to woo the Hispanic voters into the party. He had a great marketing campaign that effectively targeted Latino voters big time. Exit polls pegged his support around 44% of the Latino vote in New Mexico. As a Kerry volunteer I was envious of his outreach. He did very well with it. His Viva Bush! slogan was fantastic.

Obama did a great job with Si Se Puede (yes we can). His Latino outreach netted him about 70% of the Latino vote which was 41% of the electorate.

Any future GOP nominee is going to very likely not have this outreach or positions and will be lucky to crack 35% of the Latino vote. With the Latino population growing faster than the white population it is going to be harder and harder for the GOP to win what is normally a light blue state.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Pretty much what my answer was going to be

[ Parent ]
Great minds think alike!
Although for you I am more impressed given that you haven't spent as much time on the ground in NM as I have!

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Indeed
I think conspiracy's got a conspiracy in New Mexico, a conspiracy conspiracy if you will! :D

Good God, living here hasn't done anything for my sense of humor! :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Except there's one key difference...
Martin Heinrich can't be tied to Bill Richardson like Diane Denish was. It seemed like he was the millstone around her political neck last year, but he didn't take Heinrich down last year and I suspect Heinrich will do well next year because Bill Richardson and his scandals will no longer be headline news.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Did Richardson sink Denish?
I'm sure Richardson's unpopularity was no help, but was that really the deciding (or even a primary) factor in Denish's loss?

I tend to believe that except in extreme cases most campaigns are won and lost by the candidates/campaigns themselves, so I'm sceptical that Richardson is more responsible than Martinez and Denish for the outcome for the '10 governor's race. Likewise I think the eventual outcome of the Heinrich or Balderas vs Wilson or Sanchez race will be determined by those campaigns, which is what he was getting at...each one has their strength and weakness which will play out on a much grander stage that something like the opinion of your former "boss".

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Sure
But the presidential race is another factor.
[ Parent ]
Not saying it won't be
But user rdelbov had some interesting info on how each candidate might match up against the others and I don't think you can discount his take an Martinez-Denish just because Richardson was unpopular.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
The way I see it
Denish would have beaten any other Republican despite her Richardson ties. Martinez was a good candidate and ran such a campaign as to make those ties fatal.
[ Parent ]
Well, yes, Diane Denish also ran a crappy campaign...
Which also proves my point that Heinrich won't face the same problems in NM-Sen next year that Denish did in NM-Gov last year. Without a doubt Denish's campaign sunk her, but it also didn't help that Susana Martinez effectively tied her to Bill Richardson's scandaliciousness.

Since Richardson won't be a factor next year, but Obama will, and since Martin Heinrich and Hector Balderas are much stronger campaigners than Diane Denish, I have a hard time seeing the GOP win this seat next year.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Every losing campaign was a crappy one
So easy to say Denish lost because she was a bad campaigner or Richardson sunk her and even easier to say that Heinrich or Balderas will be much stronger campaigners.

Not saying it isn't true, but besides Heinrich winning an open house seat in a great year for NM Dems exactly what are you basing that analysis on?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
I talk to people in NM...
Who actually explain to me what's happening on the ground there, just as I explain to them what happens on the ground here. For me, those on-the-ground reports are much more valuable than random crap some DC pundit says on cable news.

And no, not every losing campaign was crappy. Dina Titus' wasn't here in NV-03. In fact, she came much closer than the final polls had projected. The party just didn't invest as much in her race as they did Harry Reid's, and her campaign did make the mistake of not investing in Latin@ outreach early enough. Her campaign wasn't perfect, but it was far from horrible.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I discount it greatly, because it makes no sense that Wilson would do better against...
...Balderas than Heinrich.

Both Balderas and Heinrich are liberal.  The conservative areas and voters aren't going to be less hostile to Heinrich just because he's Anglo.  So Wilson's not going to do any worse against him than against Balderas.

And Wilson ultimately won't be the nominee, so it's all academic.  She's not conservative enough to win a primary.  She wasn't conservative enough in 2006 when her party's voters were less insistent on a conservative than they are now.

And Sanchez himself won't be competitive against Balderas or Heinrich unless the Democratic nominee runs an unexpectedly poor campaign.

I really don't think there's much of a racial vote in NM where the candidates' ethnicities are concerned, at least not statewide.  Hispanics and whites have lived together there, both in large numbers, for literally several centuries, so they are more mature voters than in most places on the subject of racial/ethnic voting.  They are divided for sure on politics, but the division is ideological and partisan, not racial from what I see in voting behavior.

I agree with DGM on this that a Democrat likely wins this by around 10 in a Presidential year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
This!
Especially:

I really don't think there's much of a racial vote in NM where the candidates' ethnicities are concerned, at least not statewide.  Hispanics and whites have lived together there, both in large numbers, for literally several centuries, so they are more mature voters than in most places on the subject of racial/ethnic voting.  They are divided for sure on politics, but the division is ideological and partisan, not racial from what I see in voting behavior.

Hispanics have held statewide office in New Mexico for a very long time, they've got strong political roots and their political clout tends to be a lot higher here than in many other states with large Hispanic populations, they don't have to vote for the Hispanic candidates to get their issues taken care of, particularly with Democrats who know damn well that they can't win without the Hispanic vote.

This doubles for Hispanic politicians, BTW, and it's a big reason why Balderas would never try to play the race card in a primary (or why if Sanchez were to try, he'd get hammered).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Let me add that one of my points applies to Hispanics and other minorities everywhere......
A lot is made in the political media and among political junkies about immigration policy as an issue and xenophobia and racism in the GOP as hampering Republicans, but those are secondary matters in Hispanic and other nonwhite voting behavior.

I've made this point here before:  people of color are Democratic primarily because of ideology, not race.  Most people of color see government as a positive force for solving problems.  Most white voters don't.  That distinction explains the differences of opinion on a broad range of issues.  Obviously that's a simplification that disguises a lot of regional and state-by-state differences, and even local differences, but it's accurate across the national electorate.

So when people talk about the Hispanic vote and what drives it and what Republicans can do to sway it, a focus on Hispanic candidates as helping and immigration and xenophobia and racism as hurting is a bit misguided.  Those things can matter on the margins, but they are not as important as a willingness, or lack thereof, of candidates to use government broadly to solve problems.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
NM-Sen: Lt. Gov. John Sanchez to Become Second Republican to Enter Race (UPDATED) | 46 comments

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