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CT, OH, and PA: Population by CD

by: Crisitunity

Wed Mar 09, 2011 at 3:53 PM EST


Today is the flipside of yesterday's California release: states with stagnant populations and a bunch of old white people. We'll start with Connecticut, which is certainly characterized by stability: it easily retained five seats, not being particularly near either the cusp of gaining or losing, and even its five districts are pretty close to in balance with each other. Its target is 714,819, up from 681K in 2000.

District Population Deviation
CT-01 710,951 (3,868)
CT-02 729,771 14,952
CT-03 712,339 (2,480)
CT-04 706,740 (8,079)
CT-05 714,296 (523)
Total: 3,574,097

Ohio is one of only a couple states to lose two seats, taking it from 18 down to 16. Its new target is 721,032, up from about 631K in 2000. The state as a whole didn't lose population (gaining 183,364), but seven of its districts did (the 1st, 5th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 17th). The Columbus area was the only part of the state that seemed to experience robust growth; in fact, despite the state losing two seats, the 12th (a swing district held by GOPer Pat Tiberi) will actually need to shed population... much of the state's growth is accounted for in the growth in the 12th.

The numbers today don't really change the overall redistricting equation: one of the northeastern Ohio Democrats is clearly going to have to go, and while the Akron-area 13th (held by Betty Sutton) actually gained some population unlike its neighbors, it may be the one that gets dissected simply by virtue of being in the very middle (with the 9th pressuring it from the west, the 10th and 11th from the north, and the 17th from the east). As for which GOPer gets cut, I'd expected it to be one of Bill Johnson (in the 6th) or Bob Gibbs (in the 18th), but the 18th, despite its mostly rural, Appalachian flavor, seemed to hang in there better than expected, population-wise. Now I'm wondering if Bob Latta's 5th in the rural northwest, which is going to be pressured by the 9th to its north and the 4th to its east, may be a more natural target. Or here's another possibility (made likelier by the possibility that the local GOP might like rid themselves of a liability in the form of Jean Schmidt): the 2nd might be targeted, despite its decent numbers, as both the 1st to its west and the 6th to its east need to gain a ton of people (and extending the 1st east into red, suburban Clermont County would make GOPer Steve Chabot's life easier).

District Population Deviation
OH-01 598,699 (122,333)
OH-02 673,873 (47,159)
OH-03 640,899 (80,133)
OH-04 632,771 (88,261)
OH-05 627,799 (93,233)
OH-06 623,742 (97,290)
OH-07 683,371 (37,661)
OH-08 663,644 (57,388)
OH-09 619,010 (102,022)
OH-10 599,205 (121,827)
OH-11 540,432 (180,600)
OH-12 756,303 35,271
OH-13 649,102 (71,930)
OH-14 648,128 (72,904)
OH-15 681,557 (39,475)
OH-16 644,691 (76,341)
OH-17 600,111 (120,921)
OH-18 653,167 (67,865)
Total: 11,536,504

Pennsylvania's target is 705,688 based on the drop from 19 to 18 seats, up from about 646K in 2000. The 2nd, 3rd, 12th, and 14th all lost population. I'd really recommend looking at the Census Bureau's interactive map of Pennsylvania, as it shows exactly what's going on: the eastern half of the state gained a bit, while nearly every county in the state's western half outright lost population. In fact, there were enough gains in the east that four districts wind up needing to shed population: the 6th and 15th in the Philadelphia suburbs/exurbs, and the more rural, Pennsylvania Dutch-flavored 16th and 19th. These are all Republican-held districts, but these are all districts that moved sharply in the Dem direction from 2004 to 2008, while on the other hand, the shrinking western districts are Democratic areas but ones where the overall trend has been away from the Dems. (Interestingly, two cities that over recent decades came to symbolize dead northeastern industrial centers, Allentown and Reading, are actually rebounding, gaining around 10,000 people each and helping to grow the 15th and 16th respectively. Much of the growth in those two cities, though, as well as the small growth experienced in Philadelphia, is Hispanic.)

With the GOP in control of the redistricting process in Pennsylvania and the population losses heavily concentrated in the Pittsburgh area, it looks like the axe is going to fall heavily on fairly-new Dem Mark Critz in the odd-shaped 12th, which was designed to be a friendly district for John Murtha cobbling together Cambria County with the Dem-friendly parts of Pittsburgh's collar counties but is barely holding onto its Dem roots these days. Mike Doyle's 14th (in Pittsburgh proper), despite being the biggest population loser, is probably going to stay intact, as Republicans will need to concede at least one blue vote sink in the southwest (and probably get bluer, as it'll need to expand into the dead steel towns of the Mon Valley to its south, currently the bluest part of the 12th).

If Critz wants to stick around, he's likely to find himself either fighting Jason Altmire in a primary in the 4th or Tim Murphy in a general in the 18th (although Critz has enough of a Johnstown-area base that he might be able to pull out an upset in whatever district Johnstown winds up in, unless the GOP decides that the 9th, in the central part of the state, is red enough to safely absorb Johnstown).

District Population Deviation
PA-01 655,146 (50,542)
PA-02 630,277 (75,411)
PA-03 640,356 (65,332)
PA-04 647,418 (58,270)
PA-05 651,762 (53,926)
PA-06 726,465 20,777
PA-07 673,623 (32,065)
PA-08 672,685 (33,003)
PA-09 666,810 (38,878)
PA-10 669,257 (36,431)
PA-11 687,860 (17,828)
PA-12 612,384 (93,304)
PA-13 674,188 (31,500)
PA-14 584,493 (121,195)
PA-15 721,828 16,140
PA-16 723,977 18,289
PA-17 681,835 (23,853)
PA-18 653,385 (52,303)
PA-19 728,630 22,942
Total: 12,702,379
Crisitunity :: CT, OH, and PA: Population by CD
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A bad day to be Mark Critz or Betty Sutton
I'm almost certain these will be the two axed Democrats, with Sutton facing Kucinich (Kucinich having the seniority, the Cleveland base, and the liberal record, he will be heavily favored) and Critz facing Doyle. As for the unlucky Republican in Ohio, the legislature tends to go with seniority over personality, so I doubt Schmidt's district will be cracked except as far as it must be to help Chabot. Bill Johnson is probably the likely loser; the NRCC never pushed him very hard as a candidate and he kinda came out of nowhere. The 6th and 18th will be combined into a fairly conservative Appalachian district.

I find the growth in suburban Columbus really interesting. Cleveland, Akron, Toledo, and Cincinnati have been on the down-trend for so long, yet the 12th actually has to shed population!

One other intriguing fact: in absolute numbers, white populations fell in all three of these states, but black and Hispanic populations continued to grow. As far as Hispanics, that will surprise no one, but it's interesting that the Great Migration is still partly at play in parts of the Rust Belt. (I was under the impression that blacks were starting to leave the industrial North for the South, a reversion to history. Chicago, and Illinois at large, lost black population in the 2000s, but for some reason Ohio and Pennsylvania did not.)

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.


I think Strickland
should run in a combined 6th and 18th district.  He's still active in the public scene and all.  He also won that area last year.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I doubt Strickland
would want to be a freshman Congressman again at 71.

More likely is that he'll replace Kaine as DNC Chair if Kaine runs for Senate.


[ Parent ]
Agreed on that
Strickland would have no trouble winning there though, he cleaned up OH-6 and did very well in OH-18 despite 2010 being a horrible year for the Democrats.  If turnout in Cleveland wasn't so alarmingly down and had he done better in Columbus (lost OH-12 and OH-15 by 1% and 3%), he would've beaten Kasich.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Cardin did it, on the Senate side.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
No. Cardin was 63 in 2006.


[ Parent ]
The Senate
is very different from the House.

[ Parent ]
Kucinich is not the favorite by any means..
Not even close.  He only won with 53% of the vote in 2010, and was primaried in 2008.  A combined district would severely dilute his base as well and incorporate areas of lorain county that are pretty hostile to him as well as including parts of akron that are completely unknown to him.

The only advantage he has against Sutton is that she's a terrible campaigner and fundraiser.  Kucinich has got her beat on that, but he is a much weaker general election candidate as well, now that more suburbs would be included in his district.

It's a tossup for the primary and lean D for the general if Kucinich wins.


[ Parent ]
Ohio
I can't find the article right now but I read over the weekend that in order to keep a majority African American district they will probably need to extend Marcia Fudge's district from Cleveland down to the African American areas of Akron (sort of a barbell district with a narrow strip connecting the ends). That is not good news for Betty Sutton.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Found the Link
http://www.cleveland.com/opini...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Thanks for posting
and no major surprises.  

Well, I guess the good news for Sutton
is that there will be plenty of opportunities to run statewide for Ohio Dems in the near future, if she wants to go that route...I wouldn't be so quick to discount her in a primary against Kucinich, but if most of Akron is drawn out from under her that doesn't sound good.

20, Democrat, KY-01

Betty Sutton
Is my representative.  From what I'm hearing, parts of Summit County are going to be given to Renacci, and perhaps Fudge as well if they insist on keeping OH-11 50%+1 black (which is stupid, plurality black should be good enough to avoid a racial gerrymander).  OH-10 will probably take in parts of southern Cuyahoga or northern Lorain counties and stay heavily democratic.  Kucinich is an icon in the Cleveland area, so it's unlikely that she'll run against him.  I think it's just as likely that Sutton runs against Jim Renacci for OH-16, as Copley will either fall into that district, or her house will be just across the district line.  

A battle between Sutton and Renacci would be really high profile, and one that Sutton can win provided they don't somehow make the district R+7 or worse.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
Sutton
I'm in the 13th too and Betty Sutton has my vote regardless of whether she takes on Kucinich, but I would love to see her dismantle Renacci (though if they do draw Fudge into Akron, there's a chance I'd be in her district). I'm not sure where Lord Mike's impressions of her as a poor campaigner come from, since thats not the sense I have from her at all (fundraising I know less about).  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Three districts are going to go in Ohio, I think
Any smart GOP plan is going to make a safely Democratic district in Columbus, which means three will have to disappear from other places. Schmidt and Sutton are two, but who's the third?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Stivers would be the third GOP to go
MassGOP's post was predicated on the idea that the Ohio GOP would go ahead and create a Democratic vote sink in Columbus, and if they did that, it would seem like a no-brainer to shove Stivers in with Tiberi, for two reasons:

1.  Stivers was just elected in 2010 and thus has no seniority
2.  Stivers is pro-choice, so the pro-life base of the GOP won't be too sorry to see him go, I would guess.  


[ Parent ]
Good luck
elminating 2 democratic districts in the northeast.  So what, you'd have one D district each for Toledo, Cleveland, Akron/Youngstown, and Columbus?  That screams dummymander to me.  Cleveland metro is too big and too blue to knock out both Sutton and Kucinich, if they try then it will cost them either Renacci or LaTourette for sure, if 2012 is a bad year for the republicans overall they might lose both.  

The 3rd rep to get dropped will probably be either Steve Stivers or Steve Austria.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
they won't give Dems a seat in Columbus
the GOP will continue to divide Columbus between two slightly GOP-leaning seats, shifting a few dozen thousand people from Tiberi's district to Stivers'. Other than that, the Columbus area will not change much.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

[ Parent ]
I don't think they'll risk that
Stivers' seat already fell once in 2008, and Tiberi lost the Franklin portion of his district even in 2010 and the district is going to have to shed some of its exurban territory.

I could, however, see the GOP drawing another seat into Franklin (perhaps Jordan's), splitting Columbus like a pizza.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Then there's also
The Columbus-Cincy-Dayton VRA barbell, which is ugly as sin but ingeniusly effective. If the VRA requires a majority black district in Ohio, you can argue that that format is no less compact than the Cleveland to Akron format.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I see we think alike!


[ Parent ]
Just two ways won't cut it
The alternatives are (a) an inside-I-270 Democratic vote sink or (b) slicing up Columbus and attaching chunks of it to three or (more likely) four suburban/rural districts--probably OH-04, OH-07, OH-12 and OH-15.

[ Parent ]
A more extreme alternative
would be a black majority Cincinnati-to-Dayton-to-Columbus district like this one, from a diary here by Possumtracker1991:



[ Parent ]
That's such a racial gerrymander.
No court would buy that they used partisan numbers to make that.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Then just use partisan numbers
Those three cities are the only source of Democratic strength in that part of Ohio. Use Obama/McCain numbers to link together the most Democratic parts of the cities, and you will probably get a VRA district anyway.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
That argument only worked
for NC Dems when O'Connor was on the court.  That cop-out won't fly anymore.  It's so obviously a racial gerrymander that nobody would be fooled otherwise.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Ha, that's rich.
Imagine them drawing together an extrememly non-compact area and then look at it and say, "Well, what a surprise, it's VRA-compliant!  What a coincidence!"

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
You could probably get away with that
but it would NOT get the GOP off the hook from drawing a VRA district in the NE of the state.  

[ Parent ]
The court would still say absolutely not
It clearly would not be viewed as being based off partisan numbers, as it would likely be more than plurality black and a clear racial gerrymander.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Columbus, OH
My birthplace and the area where the GOP cracked so that the city is largely disenfranchised, gained quite a bit of population.  It grew by 10.6% over the decade to reach 787,033 people.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


PA-19
PA-19 has had a lot of exurban spillover from Baltimore, helped by the fact that Pennsylvania's taxes are much lower than Maryland's.

Ohio second dem seat
I would think with the population loss in Cleveland the GOP could give Lorain County to Kucinich an after eliminating Sutton they could still take out Kaptur as she is surrounded by a very Red area and if Lucas county and the rest of her district could be divided three ways I think she could be taken out and there would be two Dem seats lost.That just might create a ripple effect in Republican areas where they could cut Columbus three ways.

Connecticut's numbers
Connecticut doesn't even have to change its congressional boundaries if it doesn't want to. All districts are within ten percent of eachother.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

i think
the 10% rule is only for certain state legislatures. us house districts have to be as close to equal as possible, iirc

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
...
True, perhaps I should have said minimal changes.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
CT-05
I think that district will be worked a little to make it more favorable for whichever senior Dem in the legislature decides to run for Murphy's open seat. They can play around with the border of that district because they know John Larsen will win whatever district he is drawn into, even if it's significantly changed from the current CT-01.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Not likely
Redistricting requires a 2/3rds majority to pass in the legislature. The Republicans will block anything that weakens their chances in the 5th.

[ Parent ]
Ah, good catch
Does that give them enough clout to push to PVI to even, or will it probably just stay in its current form (since it doesn't need any population change at all?)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I'm amazed...
Four of Connecticut's major cities actually gained significant population for the first time in decades, and Hartford didn't lose anybody. New Haven's (albeit paltry) growth of 5% was it's largest growth since 1920!

As for redistricting, Only minor changes in the borders are going to occur, so don't expect PVIs to change unless, say, a drastic redrawing of the backwards "c" shaped CT-01 is to occur. Otherwise, nothing much to see here.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


[ Parent ]

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