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NV-Sen: Ensign to Announce Retirement

by: Crisitunity

Mon Mar 07, 2011 at 2:10 PM EST


Retirement season is in full swing in the Senate, and it's looking like we'll soon have one more. Unfortunately, it's one where Dems would probably be better served running against the badly damaged incumbent, John Ensign, than the likely Republican replacement (Rep. Dean Heller).

Sen. John Ensign is expected to announce at an afternoon news conference in Las Vegas that he will retire rather than face a brutal 2012 re-election campaign, according to knowledgeable sources.

The news conference is set for noon (Pacific time); I suppose it's possible the multiple sources are wrong. The real question, at this point, is how long it takes post-conference for Heller to announce... and then, what does potential Dem candidate Rep. Shelley Berkley do, now that she faces a much less appealing race against Heller?

UPDATE: With the news conference underway, Ensign confirms that he's retiring in 2012, but won't resign and will finish his term "in strong fashion." He was planning on running again as recently as last week he says, but, in the end, couldn't put his family through it. Jon Ralston's reaction?

Ensign puts family first after polls show he has no chance, Heller all but in, ethics panel ramps up probe and money slows down.
Crisitunity :: NV-Sen: Ensign to Announce Retirement
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My completely uninformed guess
is that Berkeley passes. The Democrats can put up someone like SoS Ross Miller, who doesn't have to give up his office to run.

adtleft
What say you?

[ Parent ]
She's been more resolved to run lately...
But I'm having a harder time seeing her make the jump if Ensign jumps ship. Probably the only way Shelley stays in is if Sharron Angle decides to run and coalesces the tea nuts behind her. Otherwise, why give up a safe House seat for this?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Using the January PPP poll
and projecting the undecideds to break the same way as the decideds:

(1) Heller 51, Goodman 49 - A lot of crossover voting both ways.  Heller wins indies.

(2) Heller 53, Masto 47 - Masto holds down both Dems and Indies the best of the four.  Very little crossover support for her though.

(3) Heller 54, Miller 46 - Holds down Dems and Indies reasonably well, and gets significantly more crossover support than Masto.

(4) Heller 56, Berkley 44 - Pretty rough for Berkley across the board.  Least upside too.

I don't know much about Masto and Miller, but they seem to have the most upside of this group.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Here's the reality on the ground.
First off, stop mentioning "Hizzoner" as a candidate. Oscar isn't going anywhere, especially if his wife Carolyn is elected as Las Vegas Mayor to succeed him. His passion is Vegas, and he doesn't really care about DC politics. Oh, and Dems now HATE him for his anti-Obama remarks and Carolyn's last minute entry into the Vegas Mayoral race.

AG Catherine Cortez Masto may be an intriguing option, especially since she won by a much wider margin than earlier expected. She definitely has the potential to run up the margin in Clark while keeping Washoe Blue, especially if the GOP nominee is someone other than Heller.

Of the possible Dem candidates, there's a consensus emerging that SoS Ross Miller is the strongest... And perhaps the one who may be able to beat Heller. However, he made it clear on "Face to Face" (Jon Ralston's show) tonight that he will NOT run if Shelley Berkley runs.

And that leaves us with Shelley. The ball is now in her court. Will she put her campaign into full gear hoping for a nasty teabagging of Heller in the GOP primary? Or will she bow out and give the DSCC their ideal candidate (Miller or Cortez Masto)?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I would assume Cortez Masto is Hispanic?
It would be nice to have Hispanic Senators in this region, especially a woman.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Is Berkeley the best Democrat for this seat?
I know everyone has been assuming that she is the first choice, but I've also caught at least some suggestions that perhaps one of the Democratic statewide officials would be a better statewide nominee.

What's the word from Nevada - would Treasurer Kate Marshall, SoS Ross Miller, AG Catherine Cortez Masto, or Controller Kim Wallin be strong Senate candidates against Heller? Stronger or weaker than Berkeley?

Is Shelley really committed to making this race? I've gotten some sense that she has a slight case of cold feet.


I'm out of state to so idk but I agree from the outside
It doesn't really look like Berkeley would be a good statewide candidate.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
But she's beloved by Vegas Dems...
So she's untouchable, even if some Reno Dems don't like her.

Unfortunately, we may be stuck in a Catch 22 situation. Even if Berkley jumps out, Ross Miller and Catherine Cortez Masto will probably want to stay out for the same reason. (They don't want to face Heller in the general.)

Please, oh please, let Sharron Angle announce she IS running for Senate again soon!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Do you think she could win?
I think she can just that she would be a weaker candidate then the statewide dems. The only comparison I can think of is Rep. Mark Udall becoming Senator Udall out of a reliabliy blue district but the Udalls are kinda like the Kennedys of the west and I don't think Berkely has that kind of appeal but Udall was probably going to win anyway just because of the year so maybe that will be the case here or maybe i'm totally underestamating her appeal.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
How are their fundraising abilities?
I gather Shelley has already had 2million+ races; if my data is right, Ross's SoS race was around 300k.

I do not doubt that Shelley can raise appropriate monies for a Senate race.

While there's logic to thinking Ross is more electable, can he get the money to run a legit campaign for NV Senate?


[ Parent ]
This might be Berkeley's last chance
She's 60 now, and might feel a bit old if she waits until Reid (probably) retires in '16.

[ Parent ]
Resignation coming too?
I don't see why Ensign would stick around to get humiliated by the ethics committee. I think this gives him the green light to go find a high dollar low work job making rain or lobbying for adult sex toys or something.

I'd bet he's gone by June, paging Senator Heller!

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


How would Heller perform in
a primary without Ensign. Is it helpful to him or does it allow another more conservative candidate coalesce the majority?  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

Good question
Such a turn of events would make this move from Ensign into a plus.

[ Parent ]
Heller isn't conservative?
He's a career 89/100 for ACU, I don't think anyone is getting to his right.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Have you not been paying attention?
Seriously, that missing 11 points is a huge gaping hole to some people.

[ Parent ]
Not quite
I just don't see anyone getting traction against Heller on a conservative/moderate line, now I could see someone trying to run as an "outsider", but that's not really the same thing.

This goes to the heart of what the Tea Party is, are they anti-government zealots who will fight for intellectual purity or are they political amateurist unwilling or unable to accepts that "career" politicians can be prinicpled conservatives who don't wish to destroy the institutions in which they serve?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I don't think
Those are mutually exclusive.

[ Parent ]
Possibly
But if they are the former then there is no room to challenge Heller in the primary, but if it's the later I'm sure they'll throw someone against him, but I don't think it's Angle and probably won't rise above Some Dude.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
A Tea Party candidate against Heller is a near certainty
He should brush it aside, but he is waaaaaaaaaaaay too mainstream for baggers to not take on.

[ Parent ]
What makes Heller so special?
He isn't any different than Mike Castle and in fact, is in a much worse position considering Castle's institution-like status before getting the boot.  And I'm sure NV has A LOT of crazy tea-bagger folk considering it's proximity to the border.

[ Parent ]
WHAT!?!?
Heller is nothing like Mike Castle, he was a devout moderate who not only refused to move to the right to win a primary, but openly scorned the Tea Party and anyone who advocated a "purist" nominee. Had he at least engaged (see Hatch & Lugar) he probably would have won.

Contrast that with Heller who is NO ONEs moderate, I'm not saying he won't get a token challenge, but there is no way anyone is getting traction running to his right and if it's an Insider-Outsider challenge it won't be anyone stronger than a Some Dude, and I firmly believe Angle would run for NV-2 rather than risk getting beat in the primary (AGAIN!) by Heller.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Castle not a great comparison
Republican incumbent trouble in Utah is much better.

[ Parent ]
The point was more so that even Castle went down to a complete no-name
Heller isn't anything special and could certainly lose.

[ Parent ]
In that sense yes
On the conservative to moderate spectrum less so.

[ Parent ]
Didn't we get an answer
to that question last year? And aren't we continuing to get an answer to it this year? It's one thing to primary someone like Castle or Snowe, but Lugar? Hell, Barrasso and Wicker?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
But Barrasso and Wicker have just been talked about
and not all that seriously. And as for Lugar, not only has he taken non-conservative positions on things like the Dream Act, he's also been very in-your-face with the Tea Party. So I don't think Heller is the equivalent of Castle.

[ Parent ]
He isn't Castle but he isn't Bachman
You'd have to have been in a coma to not assume Heller will get a tea party challenge.

Seriously, Sharon Angle was just the nominee in this state.  It is completely absurd to not assume that one of these egotistical teabaggers will not mount a legitimate challenge to Heller.


[ Parent ]
Maybe I misread
what notpjorourke said. Here's what I was responding to:

This goes to the heart of what the Tea Party is, are they anti-government zealots who will fight for intellectual purity or are they political amateurist unwilling or unable to accepts that "career" politicians can be prinicpled conservatives who don't wish to destroy the institutions in which they serve?

Asking if they are going to fight for intellectual purity is superfluous. I think they've made it damn clear they will do so, regardless of the consequences. Whether they can succeed with their chosen candidate is another story.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
A GOPer needs an ACU score of 127/100
to be considered acceptable in moving to a statewide race.  And even then, they may believe Obama is an American-born Christian and that the world is round or something.

[ Parent ]
This is exactly right
Citing ACU scores seems utterly meaningless to me. At best, having a "good" one is necessary but hardly sufficient. Bob Bennett had a lifetime 84 rating.

[ Parent ]
ACU Scores
They aren't always the best barometer, but with Bennett it's important to look at the 3 most recent scores available at the time of his convention:

2006: 72
2007: 75
2008: 64

His lifetime average got a boost from him becoming more conservative in 2010, under attack from the right, and his earlier years, when he defected on fewer votes.

The ACU considered anyone with a score over 80 a "conservative," over 90 a "staunch conservative," and at 100 a "Defender of Liberty" (whatever that means.) Obviously the Utah convention crowd was looking for someone in that latter area.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Then if Heller is so damn conservative
Why are some measuring the drapes already?

[ Parent ]
Because some people think it is still 2010


[ Parent ]
That's a very fair point
And "utterly meaningless" was certainly too strong on my part. But I don't think they are dispositive.

Wouldn't the 2009 scores have been known at the time of the convention? That wasn't until 2010.


[ Parent ]
You're right, I missed that
The '09 numbers (he got an 82) would have come out in February 2010 at CPAC, while the convention was in the springtime.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Sharon Angle
Danny Tarkanian

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I know someone to his right

Sharron Angle.

And I would tell they have not good relation. I would tell she will run again.


[ Parent ]
Angle?
Jon Ralston doesn't think so;

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Key Q&As;

"Did Reid's victory deflate the Nevada Tea Party?

Hard to tell yet. We'll know more in the fall. There really is no Tea Party, per se, but a lot of smaller groups. They had buyer's remorse over Angle, but could get re-engaged in the U.S. Senate primary and the congressional races.

Does Sharron Angle (R) have a political future in Nevada?

Not in a statewide race. But if she runs for Dean Heller's congressional seat, I think she is the frontrunner."

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
read this again please
"But if she runs for Dean Heller's congressional seat, I think she is the frontrunner."


[ Parent ]
My mistake

I read it so fast.

I think she will run again for this senate seat.


[ Parent ]
If she does Heller will crush her
She'll probably play it smart and run for NV-2, if she's dumb enough to take on Heller he'd destroy her, and if anything it would probably enhance his position for the General.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Depending on who runs against her
She could lose the new version of NV-2 to a sane person. That would flip the delegation from 1-2, to either 3-1 or possibly even 4-0(!). That would be something.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Maybe
There isn't much Dem bench in NV-2 and I'm betting Heck's district will be even safer than Heller's when the lines are finalized.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Say it with me:
"Oh, please.  Oh, please."  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
All eyes turn to Sharron Angle...
Will she primary Heller (again) or not? Watch for any Angle statement today.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
That's a tough haul
As Ralston pointed out, even the Tea Party groups in NV have lost faith in her, and it's not like Heller is a squish RINO.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I think she will run again

I have few doubts here.

[ Parent ]
Won't she just run for Heller's seat?


[ Parent ]
That's the CW
Unless she is completely unhinged (I know, I know) she'll jump into the (potentially) open NV-2 race.

I agree with Ralston, she's burned toast right now, and even the tea party doesn't want to eat that, plus unlike '10 with Heller there IS an real top tier establishment candidate, whereas vs Harry Reid all the GOPer in the primary were decidedly 2nd tier.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Ummm, we're talking about Sharron Angle here.
She IS unhinged. Her political career has been defined by her always going unhinged. It's really just a matter now of where Angle wants to do damage. In NV-02, she likely faces a primary against Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki (a "libertarian conservative" who's pretty pro-equality). In NV-Sen, she likely faces a primary against Dean Heller. Either way, Angle has a tough primary fight ahead of her, so why not go for top prize again?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I see not Angle assuming she is back Heller

I think she want a 2006 rematch. A lot more likely.

[ Parent ]
that's what I think
she ruled out a Senate run already and it's probably because Heller was always going to run.  She already did enough to embarrass herself in a statewide race before and she really thought she had it in the bag, to boot.  I don't know if anyones ego could go through that all over again.

[ Parent ]
Naw, POTUS
Just kidding!

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
She is one of the republicans what rule out a bid for 2012

:)

[ Parent ]
What is the Dem Bench in NV-02 like?
With Heller all but certain to run for Senate that creates an open seat in NV-02. IMHO this is a winnable seat, especially if Sharon Angle is the Republican. Who we got?

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Unfortunately, hardly anyone...
Who can win. I LOVE State Senator Sheila Leslie (D-Reno), but she's more Barbara Boxer than Harry Reid... And that's a problem up there.

As I said in my diary last Friday, it's slim pickings for us. State Treasurer Kate Marshall is a possibility, but she's not had any interest in running for federal office before.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I notice you're not totally ridiculing the idea Sharron Angle will run for Senate
Is it a real possibility, or do you think she'll pass?  

[ Parent ]
Is Heller the second coming of Jesus or something?
This is a state Obama won by 12% and where Reid won with 51% because of a very strong GOTV operation.  Any of the statewide elected Dems would be fools not to take the chance; freebie shot at an open US Senate seat in a Presidential re-election year.  What am I missing here?  

[ Parent ]
I'm curious, too.
Like I said below, I'm willing to believe he won't be easy to defeat. But I don't see why he's scaring so many people away from the race.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
The case might be
That the McCain collapsed in '08 and the 12% win is not indicative of the state, Reid getting 51% had everything to do with Angle and doens't count vs Heller. Bush carried the state twice and Sandoval won easily while the GOP won 2 of 3 house seats.

Not saying it's right (not saying that AT ALL!!!!), but it's unrealistic to assume that everyone thinks Obama & Harry Reid's wins mean the state is now Blue and thus they should risk their careers on replicating those results.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
But the worst
result is a loss for some of these people. They will still get to keep their jobs if they lose, so what's the big deal?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Has anyone confirmed they WON'T run?
I think the conjecture is that Berkeley is thinking life in the house is just fine (and safe!), but I'm sure the Dem nominee will certainly be a top drawer candidate. Heller certainly isn't going to scare away the top opponents the way Harry Reid did to the GOPer in '10.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Oh piffle
McCain collapsed is a poor excuse. Fact of the matter is the state was more Republican than the nation in 2000, even in 2004 and more Democrat than the country as a whole in 2008. And in many states Reid would have lost even against Angle with his poor job approvals. Nevada isn't blue quite yet but it is headed that way.

[ Parent ]
I'm just saying what they might be thinking
The elected officials who's careers depend on making smart decisions about what to run for and when might not agree with you, especially when it's their careers on the line.

Again, not my opinion, just anticipating what arguments they might have in the back of their minds, and I still think the Dems will not have trouble finding a top tier candidate to run for this Senate seat.

Caveat may be that if Ensign resignes and Heller is the incumbent...but that's two moves down the track and even if 1-2 decide to run for the new NV-4 instead they'll still have a quality candidate in the General.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
That would be the difference between Republicans
And Democrats. Republicans are looking at Rhode Island and Vermont. Hopefully the DSCC can find another Chris Coons out in the desert somewhere.

[ Parent ]
Nevada is D+2

That mean a blue leaning.

I agree.


[ Parent ]
Nope, that's not it.
If anything, Obama is in great position to win Nevada by double digits again. And Reid getting over 50% was a HUGE symbolic victory for Nevada Dems.

As I've said before, the real reason why Heller's political stock is so pricey is because he has a whole lot of juice with the key political power players on this state. I now like to call it the gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex. They control this state, and Dean Heller is "their boy".

And by the way, that's also why neither Ross Miller nor Catherine Cortez Masto wants to challenge Heller. They know the political power players won't give them any time of day if Heller is the GOP nominee.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Surely that is more reason for Berkley to run
Since you seemed to suggest she was tight with those same players. Plus, with her age, she probably won't get another chance. Having said that if none of these run who is there? It is simply unacceptable to offer no challenge here with so few other Republican held seats even slightly vulnerable. Again, the Republicans would never stand for this so why do Democrats shy away?

[ Parent ]
Shelley may still run...
But probably only if Sharron Angle or another prominent teabagger has a good chance of defeating Dean Heller in the primary. Otherwise, the power players will probably unite behind Heller early on.

Again, watch for what Angle says next.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
The dude was talking about NV-02
Not NV-Sen.

[ Parent ]
Pundits too
We don't know who the candidates will be like NM so they will move it to tossup right? I won't hold my breath. 2010-itis.

[ Parent ]
To be fair, NV-Sen is still toss-up in Cook's rankings
Actually, Cook's rankings aren't horrible for the Democrats, the only major disagreement I have is with New Mexico's ranking, everything else seems reasonable to me ( http://elliotpolitics.blogspot... for me, http://www.cookpolitical.com/r... for Cook).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Actually, I take part of that back
I have a huge disagreement with Cook about WV-Sen (especially given that Manchin still won by double digits in a horrible year for Democrats), he should be considered Leans D at least given that he's very unlikely to be challenged by Capito-Moore.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I agree
With Barack's coattails, there is no good reason why Shelley Berkeley shouldn't be able to win here, even if she has to go up against Dean Heller.

68, Dem-leaning indie, MI-8

[ Parent ]
Heller only won by six in 2006.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
There's Frankie Sue Del Papa...
But she's been out of office for a while. Still, it'd be worth giving her a call. I think if I were Rep. Israel, I'd ring her up.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Frankie Sue Del Papa
My notes say she cited a distaste for fund-raising on previous occasions when her name surfaced as a possibility for elective office. I think she's 60 or 61, so age wouldn't rule her out if she finds the will to run and is promised decent support.  

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

[ Parent ]
Just I comment about her in the diary about redistricting Nevada

It would be logical to look to all the options in the recruiting efforts.

[ Parent ]
Why?
Frankie has been out of office since 2003. She doesn't want to run for anything again. And because there's been so much change in the electorate since 1998, there's a good chance most Nevada voters have no clue who she is.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Not a lot of better alternatives
If I were Rep. Israel, I'd really, really want to cover my bases after the House Democrats suffered such losses last year. I'd be looking for the dark-horse opportunities left and leftier.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Ummm... Yes, there are.
And it all depends on what Shelley Berkley wants to do next. If Shelley still wants to run, no one can touch her in the primary. (If they do, the full weight of the Reid family will strike them down!)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Wait, are you talking about NV-Sen...
Or NV-02?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Looks like NV-02
Since Steve Israel is head of the DCCC.

[ Parent ]
Sorry, then.
My mistake.

Even in the case of NV-02, Frankie Sue Del Papa is a no go. She just hasn't had interest in running again. At this point, she's about as likely as Jill Derby to run. (And remember, she was out for good after just 2 strikes!)

Again, the more likely NV-02 option may be current Nevada Treasurer Kate Marshall. She lives in Reno, and she did carry Washoe and Mineral Counties (and came VERY close in Carson City) in her reelection last year.

And there may be more intriguing choices if one looks deep enough at the local level.


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Yeah, NV-02
Sorry, should have made myself clearer.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
What's the story on Jill Derby?
I know she's run twice before, but she did pretty well in 2006.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Well I take not that as bad new

I think Heller will suffer a lot in the republican primary.

Next stop... O Snowe...


Personally, I think Danny Tarkanian is more likely to beat Heller than Angle is
Angle is damaged goods, and I think she probably isn't even that popular with the far right anymore. Tarkanian is certainly motivated to run for office, and he got Erickson's endorsement in his run for the senate.

Male, VA-08

Has Tark even suggested
He'd be interested in running again?

[ Parent ]
No, he isn't.
Baby Tark is a HORRIBLE campaigner! He only got as far as he did in 2004 (for State Senate) and 2006 (for Secretary of State) because of his name. In 2010, even that evaporated as teabaggers left him in the cold when "Tea Party, Inc." mobilized behind Sharron Angle.

And Baby Tark has so many skeletons in his closet that he's an oppo researcher's dream come true.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Why is Heller so threatening?
I'm willing to believe that he won't be an easy candidate to defeat, but I'm not sure why he's considered in the same league, or one just below, someone like Hoeven. It seems like we have the winds at our back in the state, and if there's a strong performance at the top of the ticket by Obama, that only helps.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

I wouldnt' read too much into it
It's like saying that Nye, Connelly & Boucher didn't run because they are afraid of George Allen. The Dems will have a top tier challenger in Nevada, doesn't matter if it's Berkeley or not, there are 3-4 potentials who are all top drawer so 1 person's perceived reticence is notthing to go on...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Highly unlikely Angle runs here, probably 50/50 decision for Berekely
The thing with Berkeley is, as others have pointed above, the Nevada Democratic bench is actually quite strong. The problem is, Heller's perceived to be a near-unbeatable candidate, so it won't necessarily be easy drafting one of these top-tier folks.

As for Angle, I agree, if she runs, it's for the house seat. She wants to win and I think she has a little political savvy in her.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Heller perceived to be a near-unbeatable candidate?
I don't see that at all, there is a whole basket full of Dems not named Shelley Berkeley who would all be first tier candidates.

Heller is an 800lb gorilla, but only in the GOP primary.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Damn it


Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

Don't discount your eggs before they hatch
As I like to observe, Carnahan was smoking a Blunt pretty early on.  Before it became Soviet Missouri, that is.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
It's absolutely ridiculous to give up on this state even if Heller runs
Obama will likely win this state big. Ticket splitting is becoming less common. Dems have a strong bench. There is no reason to give up on this.

And before anybody starts a meme, it seems like the vast majority of posters agree with this. So no one should accuse the "culture" of SSP of being defeatist on this one. The unbeatable stuff is coming mostly from the outside, and it is wrong.  


[ Parent ]
Voters Obama turned out
 Are less likely to be ticket splitters. Obama will turn out voters who are Democrats but would not have voted until Obama convinced them it was an important election. Ticket splitting happens when a candidate who is extremely popular with indpenedents runs.

Take a look at Ed Rendell's performance in PA-6 in 2006 which Gerleach won that year despite most polls thinking he would lose. Rendell absolutely crushed Lynn Swann in that district but it was not because Rendell turned out sporadic voting Democrats, he won over all the indpendents. Those independents liked Rendell but were still independents so Gerleach was able to sway them over.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
To a point
Inhabitual voters are more likely to vote a straight ticket. See 2008 and numerous House races in California.

[ Parent ]
Ummm, I'm inside!
Remember, I live here in Nevada. I can feel the political pulse of this state. And I'm not being defeatist. Rather, I'm just telling it like it is.

The only chance we now have of winning NV-Sen next year is if teabaggers turn against Heller and unite behind one primary opponent. That's why Angle running for Senate will be a godsend for us if she does it!

As I said above, Heller has the gaming-mining-lobbying industrial complex on his side. And even if most Vegas Dems vote straight ticket, Heller is betting that he will get more than enough exurban Vegas ticket splitters and Northern votes to overcome even a strong Obama win.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Also
 I have heard there are a few big people in the casino industry who do not like Berkeley at all.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Sheldon Adelson doesn't.
And he never will, no matter how much they agree on Israel/Palestine.

However, MGM and Caesars love her... But if they have to choose between her and Heller, she's in trouble.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Does Senate control not come in to it?
Would they not prefer Reid to stay where he is? As I said elsewhere at least she has a shot with these people because from what you seem to be saying Miller et al would have none.

[ Parent ]
I wonder about the basis of the "nonagression" pact
between Reid and Ensign -- whether there are circumstances that would extend that pact to Heller.

Or perhaps the nonagression pact was broken when Harry forced Ensign to defend prostitution.


[ Parent ]
Reid is perhaps the key here
But whatever, the DSCC have to find an "angle" here somewhere and not just right it off because the state bosses decide in advance who they want.

[ Parent ]
And do you think this type of support for Heller is acceptable for the teabaggers?

After win the primary in 2010 I think a teabagger primary for Heller is assured.

[ Parent ]
Absolutely! That's probably...
Heller's Achilles' Heel. His strong establishment support turns off teabaggers. They long suspected he made the same non-aggression pact with Harry Reid that John Ensign used to have.

Again, our best chance at picking up NV-Sen next year is Heller going down in the GOP primary.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Then it is time to go strongly after the seat

The majority in the senate is in play. Fortunately B Obama, H Reid and the DSCC know it. I expect a hard and expensive campaign here. The democratic party must win every competitive seat here looking to keep the majority in the senate after 2012, but also after 2014. In 2014 the only chance of win a new seat in a blue state is to defeat S Collins. The next easier goal would be GA-Sen or SC-Sen (a lot harder). And there are some difficult seats for defend like AK-Sen, LA-Sen or NC-Sen (I expect easier work for MN-Sen, OR-Sen and NH-Sen). This race is very important, is key, for keep the majority in democratic hands after 2014.

Until now the polls show O Goodman as leader, but it is not easy for me to assume there are not strongest people in the blue team in Nevada.

With a little worse result in the polls there are S Berkley, C Titus, R Miller, C Cortez-Masto. I take the results of this group in the polls like the result for a generic high level candidate. Here, surely S Berkley is first in line like you tell.

My advice here would be to check in some poll F DelPapa and B Miller, the former governor. Please, take it seriously, because this race is very important. It is necessary to know who can be the real frontrunner in people's mind. It is necessary to find it with open mind because we have some trouble in the candidates polled until now, and we have a difficult prospect for keeping the majority until 2016. And if the people still love them, why not? No matter if the want to return or not, the work of the DSCC is to recruit the best options and would be like a negligence of the DSCC to forget without check some of the strongest potential candidates when the prospect is not easy. The republicans do it successfully in 2010 with T Branstad and D Coats, here is nothing to lose. Here is a new seat for win.

I wish you the success for this race.


[ Parent ]
I do not understand your fixation
with former D politicians who have not run for a decade, and have no interest in running. First Hawaii, now Nevada.

The people you name have no interest in getting back into elective politics.

Such choices would have several disadvantages:

1) Such politicians, even if convinced to run, would not be enthusiastic
2) They represent the past
3) Their name recognition is down from being away from the public eye
4) Their presence would squelch the energy of up and coming politicos

As for Brandstad and Coats, at least they had interest in coming back, like Jerry Brown and John Kitzhaber.


[ Parent ]
Thank you...
For explaining that so well for me. ;-)

The key difference is that pols like Brown and Branstad were clearly hungry for more. It was especially obvious with Brown, as he jumped in as Oakland Mayor last decade, then as California's AG. Jerry Brown is just the colorful character who continues to be a driving force in CA politics.

Bob Miller, OTOH, got his wish with two terms as Nevada Governor. He's done with it. He'll still do big fundraisers at his and Sandy's fabulous Anthem Country Club mansion, but he's clearly stated he doesn't want to run for another office again. (He's now letting his son, Ross, shine.)

And again, Frankie Sue Del Papa last won an election in 1998! She's been done running for office for quite some time now. She reemerged briefly last year when Harry Reid's campaign invited her to a Reno presser to denounce Sharron Angle's crazy opposition to reining in domestic abusers, but that was it. She doesn't want to run for anything again.

As you'll see in what I'm about to post, our hopes of winning NV-Sen next year may now rest on CURRENT elected statewide officers.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
The CURRENT elected statewide officers are 10% back Heller

Like I tell to tietack (who habitually is so happy with moderate republicans) I'm not happy with this poll numbers.

I mean not to impose them. I advice for ask to the people about them. It would be so negligent to ask not about a former governor and a former three terms AG under 65 years old when until now one independent 71 years old mayor appears as the best democrat in the polls.

I hope someone take seriously the sense of the word recruitment here. I explain to tietack the sense of the word. A good recruitment work mean to find actively the best candidates for run and many times to convince the best potential candidates for a bid.

It is very important for all the country to keep the majority after 2012 and after 2014. Surely H Reid knows the importance of this. I hope he find, if not he is in risk as Majority Leader.


[ Parent ]
I'm not happy looking the dems back by -10% in the polls

Maybe you get happy with this.

For me it is enough reason for me to wish to know about other potential options that can improve this results in the polls.

It seems you know not about the sense of the word recruitment.

A good recruitment work mean to find actively candidates for run and many times to convince the potential candidates for a bid.


[ Parent ]
Of course I have to defer to you on this...
I just find it hard to believe that there's no hope with Heller considering how much Obama will win the state by in 2012.

I'm defeatists about Dems chances in Texas or Tennessee, but I just can't make the leap to be defeatist here.

I guess I ask you again - are you expecting there is a chance Angle will jump in?  


[ Parent ]
I also think the DSCC must find the victory here.

The majority in the senate is in play, and there are few options for win new seats for balance the likely republican pick-ups.

Nevada is one of the bests, and the DSCC know it.

Here it is not only Nevada, here there are more things in play.

Do you know the last poll for Tennessee with Bredesen? If you know not you will have a good surprise.


[ Parent ]
Mark has seen it
He and I were both in agreement that even with Bredesen it would still lean to Corker despite what the polls say.

[ Parent ]
Ensign was going to lose to Heller in the primary anyway, so no real change here......
Nevada Republicans, while demonstrating ignorance of candidates last year by nominating Angle, at least showed some smarts by firing Jim Gibbons on their own.  They were poised to do the same to Ensign, as recent polling established.

Makes me wonder why Kentucky Republicans insisted on walking the plank with Ernie Fletcher when they could've given themselves a fighting chance with Anne Northup a few years back.

But ultimately in Nevada, we were always going to face Heller in November.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
8 retirements
is really high for one cycle, isn't it? when was the last time it was this high?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
There were 15 open seats last cycle


[ Parent ]
Not really
There were 12 retirements

And then some seats held by appointees for vacant seats (Obama, Biden, Clinton...)


[ Parent ]
Yeah
I included Murkowski, Specter and Bennett. There were 9 "pure" retirements - Martinez, Voinovich, Brownback, Bunning, Gregg, Bond, Dorgan, Bayh, Dodd.

[ Parent ]
8 retired in 2004
It is a little high, but not extraordinary

2010 - 5
2008 - 5
2006 - 3
2004 - 8
2002 - 5
2000 - 5
1998 - 5
1996 - 14 (!)
1994 - 9
1992 - 8 (7 if you don't count Kent Conrad, who retired from one seat but ran for and won another one....)
1990 - 3
1988 - 6
1986 - 6
1984 - 4
1982 - 3
1980 - 5

As you can see, the numbers tend to bounce around a lot


[ Parent ]
12 in 2010, not 5
sorry, transposed the 2008 number

[ Parent ]
Primary Day in Nevada
If Heller goes for it, the primary for the US Senate seat will of course be the same day as the primary for Heller's soon to be open seat.  If he can get his supporters out, and coalesce around one candidate for his House seat, they can take Angle down.  I am sure someone like Heller would rather not be part of a 6 person Nevada Senate/House delegation that included Sharon Angle.  

Polling?
The last poll I saw showed Berkley actually doing best against Ensign (a point or two over AG Masto & SoS Miller) but faring the worst against Heller, whereas Masto & Miller looked potentially stronger against him (not a lot, but there were a lot more undecideds in those match-ups).

Masto, Miller and Treasurer Kate Marshall are all in their second terms and all seem quite competent. I have a hard time believing that one of them might not be better going up against Heller. Plus, they're all younger than Berkley and have won statewide, instead of just in the Vegas area.

If one of them is a particularly good campaigner, they'd probably be a better bet than coronating Berkley. And as has been pointed out, they could keep their day jobs...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


This PPP poll
Is what I'm referring to:

http://media.lvrj.com/document...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
This is good news for Dems
Bad: Heller slaughtering Ensign in a primary

Good: Heller facing a teabagger who may only get 30% in a primary but ends up carrying a lot of water that leads to turning Heller from safe/blah to establishment/Washington insider.


Not a bad fantasy
And quite plausible

[ Parent ]
Na Na Na Na
Na Na Na Na
Hey Hey Hey
Goodbye!!!


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