she lost a primary once

why not again?  it'd be hilarious it's it's steve pearce, or more likely a candidate pearce endorses.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 04:11:45 AM UTC

This time she will, probably,

win primary: she lost once as "more moderate candidate", and lost very narrowly. And she will be not that bad general election candidate - a lot will depend on whom Democrats will nominate...

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by: smoltchanov @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 04:32:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Governor Martinez

Wilson handled the transition so you can assume Martinez will be doing whatever she can to undermine and primary challenger. Governor's normally do have so power in this regard, but how effective she'll be remains to be seen. The fact that she and Pearce seem to hate each other so much can't be a big help for her, either in the primary or general.

For the sake of competitiveness I had hoped that Wilson would run for her old seat (especially as an open seat with Heinrich running for Senate) and the LG would run for Senate.

Obviously this isn't happening and the "perfect storm" the GOP would need to win this seems already to be blowing itself out...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 15:21:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As I said before, even if Wilson runs for her old house seat, I don't think she'd win

Her popularity really has dropped since 2008 and NM-01 has moved from under her (especially in a presidential year).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 15:45:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmmm

How Wilson would fair in the new NM-1 depends on what the actual lines are and who her opponent is it's pointless to guess now since she's in for Senate.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 16:05:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lines will hardly change

There are only 3 districts in NM and a split control. Any changes will be very minimal and it won't move the district's PVI much if any.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

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by: Cool_Arrow @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 17:31:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Plus...

Trying to get cute with Heinrich will weaken Pearce's district and Pearce is too right-wing to win an Obama district.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 18:26:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perhaps

Little changes can make a big difference of course, my only point was that its way premature (and now pointless) to conjecture on what her chances would be in an open seat post redistricting - way too many variables, most importantly being who will be the Dem standardbearer with Heinrich running for Senate?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 19:20:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Time

for Jim DeMint and the TPX to work their magic here.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 04:16:10 AM UTC

Besides Pearce, who might

the favored Teabagger candidate be?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 04:29:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

anyone

who had heard of joe miller prior to 2010? christine o'donnell? sharron angle?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

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by: jncca @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 05:00:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

O'Donnell

was the candidate in 2008, so probably, but I see your point. I was simply asking who such a candidate was, should he exist at all. But I guess he doesn't.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 05:27:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's my take

I'd be shocked if Wilson were not the recipient of a mighty teabagging. In comments, I saw someone suggesting she could run for her old seat in NM-01 if Rep. Martin Heinrich got into the senate race. Do you think that drop-down could happen?

Wilson is definitely one of the stronger New Mexico candidates the Republicans can field, but then again, that's more a commentary on how weak the Republican bench in New Mexico is rather than how strong Heather Wilson is (she's taken a hit in popularity since 2008, losing to Steve Pearce and the David Iglesias thing hurt her). She and Pearce definitely have bad blood between them, and I don't doubt for a second that Pearce, if it comes down to it, would jump in himself if someone else doesn't challenge Wilson from the right.

With the House seat, I doubt Wilson would go to the House seat, if someone like Balderas or Heinrich wins now, Wilson won't have another chance to run again (running against Udall would be a suicide run and he won't retire anytime soon anyways) but even if she does, I still like our chances of retaining the seat (the district has moved away from her, she would have lost in 2008, I say that pretty confidently given Obama's performance).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 04:27:33 AM UTC

I think she would run so happy for her old house seat.

The republicans have not trouble doing this.

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by: abgin @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 04:28:26 AM UTC

Think she would win her old Congressional seat

against Heinrich? Because, IMO, that's probably the whole race.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 04:34:16 AM UTC

Extremely doubtful

NM-01 is more Democratic than the state as a whole, and frankly, there's a very good chance that Wilson would have lost to Heinrich in 2008 if she had run for re-election (like I mentioned before, her popularity is not what it once was).

She doesn't have to win NM-01 to win statewide, but she does have to keep it reasonably close, but I don't think she could do it against Heinrich.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 04:41:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think she would not win agains Heinrich

but I think she would run so happy if the seat gets open.

About the redistricting of New Mexico I'm taking it with more interest. S Martinez can veto a more democratic map, but at same time, there is a democratic state supreme court.

The state is becoming bluer so fast, and if the democrats make weaker NM-02, in few years this can be also a democratic seat.

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by: abgin @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 19:01:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She'll have rely heavily on ticket splitters

And how many depends on how much Obama wins the state by. She is a moderate, which would help, but unless the Democratic nominee is a mess, not many are going to see a reason to split their ticket.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 04:57:29 AM UTC

I think Sanchez is probably more threatening than Pearce

Given his '08 thumping in the general election, I think Pearce's statewide stock has fallen considerably. Sanchez, on the flip side, is an Hispanic Tea Partier, and, given Martinez's success, I suspect the Tea Party could coalesce pretty firmly behind him. With Pearce, though, I don't think the enthusiasm would be there and I think Wilson would probably win rather comfortably. If Pearce somehow won the nod, this would be Safe D. With Sanchez, I'd wager Lean D and with Wilson, I'd say toss-up, at least for the time being. I think she's as good as it gets for them.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 04:59:12 AM UTC

toss-up?

i don't think so. tilt d at best

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

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by: jncca @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 05:01:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Heather Wilson doesn't give the Republicans a toss-up

Both Balderas and Heinrich would have no problem beating Wilson (the last PPP poll showed Heinrich beating Wilson by 11 points, that's not toss-up).

Wilson's entrance changes nothing about NM-Sen for me, Democrats will hold the seat, and Heather Wilson will lose either in the primary or in the general.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 05:04:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What about Sanchez?

Any guesses on how he might do?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 05:28:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think Sanchez does any better

He's already lost statewide before (Richardson beat him by 17 in 2002 when running for governor). He's a lightweight that Martinez picked for her running mate, nothing more.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 05:36:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

She didn't pick him

In NM LT. Gov candidates are nominated and primaries, and the Gov and Lt/ Gov candidate run on a ticket. Plus, he took down a long time house member who was Speaker of the House at the time, so its not like he's never been in a tough campaign  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 06:38:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ugh, too late for me, yes New Mexico has primaries for Lt. Gov

But he didn't win a statewide general on his own, and his only other statewide race had him losing dismally to Richardson.

To be honest, I don't know enough about the type of district the old speaker was in to comment on it, but he still lost by a wide margin in his only statewide general election campaign, he doesn't have the ability to get the ticket-splitting he needs in order to win, not against Heinrich and not against Balderas.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 07:07:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This ^^^^^^^^

From one New Mexican to a former New Mexican I agree.

With regards to the NM Senate race can we please stop calling it a toss-up until evidence emerges to suggest that and can we stop talking about a racially divisive Democratic Primary and Latino "resentment" to Heinrich. It is just very unlikely to happen.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

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by: Cool_Arrow @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 14:21:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is a Likely Democratic for me

The numbers for Heinrich vs Wilson and Lujan vs Wilson mean Likely Democratic, and I expect Balderas so close to Heinrich, and better than Lujan.

Then nothing about a Toss-Up here.

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by: abgin @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 18:55:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree and I don't think you see "racial division" when...

...there's a mature electorate that is accustomed to primaries with candidates of different ethnicities.  New Mexico having so many Hispanics whose families have been there for centuries, the same as whites, means they're used to this, and there shouldn't be "division."  I think these kinds of divisions are more likely when a racial or ethnic minority is initially trying to break a glass ceiling.  But Hispanics winning statewide in NM is old hat, so it shouldn't be a big deal in a Democratic primary.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Sun Mar 06, 2011 at 16:14:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly right

Heather Wilson is right now the best that the GOP can offer in New Mexico (outside of Susana Martinez but she's not running so it's a moot point), but given Steve Pearce's animosity towards Wilson, she's not going to have the field to herself.

It's the Republicans, not the Democrats, who are most likely to have a divisive primary.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Sun Mar 06, 2011 at 16:45:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tossup?

You do realize Heinrich leads her by 11 and is over 50 right? That's lean D in my book. It could turn into a tossup but it isn't at the current moment.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 13:21:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]