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SSP Daily Digest: 3/3

by: DavidNYC

Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 3:31 PM EST


AZ-Sen: Arizona Dems could see a big name get into the senate race: 4th CD Rep. Ed Pastor says he's considering the race, but wants to see how Rep. Gabby Giffords's recovery goes before making any decisions. (He also says he hasn't spoken to the DSCC yet.)

CT-Sen: Chris Murphy just scored a trio of big fat endorsements: state Attorney General George Jepsen, Secretary of the State Denise Merrill, and Comptroller Kevin Lembo all just gave their backing to the 5th CD rep. Notably, Merrill succeeded Murphy's primary opponent, Susan Bysiewicz, as SoS this year.

NM-Sen: Couple of developments in the open-seat New Mexico race. First, Dave Catanese says that Heather Wilson is starting to staff up for a potential run. Second, Steve Pearce says that he's spoken to Republican Lt. Gov. John Sanchez and says that Sanchez is "thinking about" running. Pearce, who earlier was urging NM Republicans to reach a consensus pick, is sounding more and more like he's interesting in playing the role of fixer rather than running himself - not too surprising, given that he's 63 and just ran tough campaigns two cycles in a row.

OH-Sen: Actual retail value of a Drew Carey senate run? $0, apparently. The Price Is Right host's publicist says that Carey "does not plan to run for office," despite a movement trying to draft him to run against Sen. Sherrod Brown. Does this remind anyone else of talk about recruiting Jerry Springer on our behalf in the 2005 timeframe? God that was sad.

VA-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rick Boucher tells the National Journal that while he isn't ruling out a senate run, he isn't "giving any active thought" to one, either. Based on the linked NJ item, it sure sounds like Boucher is heading for a second career as a lobbyist. Anyhow, Boucher also says that Tim Kaine is the "obvious Democratic candidate."

WI-Gov: So now the RNC, like the RGA, is putting up an ad in support of Darth Walker. No Word On The Size Of The Buy (in case you aren't familiar with that phrase, it means "NWOTSOTB"), or whether it's cable or broadcast, but The Hill does say it will run "in Milwaukee and Madison through the end of this week."

NY-26: Though he met with teabagger David Bellavia for over an hour, Conservative Party chair Mike Long says he "made it very clear" that Republican nominee Jane Corwin has "a leg up on" Bellavia in terms of getting the Con endorsement. Long said his party's executive committee may meet later this week or early next week to make a final decision. With any luck, Bellavia will pursue his plan to petition on to the ballot if he gets passed over.

Tampa Mayor: The city of Tampa, FL had a mayoral election the other night, and Republican Rose Ferlita (26%) and Dem Bob Buckhorn (24%) will proceed to a run-off. All of the other candidates in the first round were Dems, though former Mayor Dick Greco (who was trying to return to office) was definitely more of a DINO.

MS-Gov: Four Democrats filed for the gubernatorial race: Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, attorney Bill Luckett (who seems to have some money), and  Some Dudes Guy Shaw and William Compton, who also ran in 2007 and took just 12% in the Dem primary. But the rest of the picture is pretty brutal. Not a single Dem will be on the ballot for the positions of lieutenant governor, secretary of state, or auditor. As for the Republicans, five candidates qualified for the gubernatorial race: Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, businessman Dave Dennis, Pearl River County Supervisor Hudson Holiday, Some Dude Ron Williams, and teabagger James Broadwater.

Special Elections: Unsurprisingly, in Florida's SD-33, Dem Oscar Braynon routed his Republican opposition in his bid to succeed Frederica Wilson (who replaced Kendrick Meek in the House). Dems also lost a very Republican state house district in Maine, HD-11, where the GOP candidate got all of 697 votes to the Democrat's 557.

WI-St. Sen.: The Wisconsin Democratic Party is launching an effort to recall the eight Republican state senators who are legally subject to the recall process. (As you probably know, WI elects half its senators every two years, so only those who won in 2008 can be recalled right now.) The SEIU has also announced that they are backing the effort.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/3
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Posted this ten minutes ago, but
Gingrich has his exploratory committee up (and it's loltastic)

http://thinkprogress.org/2011/...

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


Heh Ohio having a Carey-Springer Senate delegation.


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

Springer at least had political experience
Not that he is electable anymore, though.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


I'll never understand
the constant need for celebrities to enter politics in some of these states. It'd be one thing if we were talking about a Democrat from Wyoming or a Republican from Maryland, but why in the world would Ohio Republicans need Drew Carey? It's not as if the party has really been suffering as of late. Hell, why would they want him? For better or worse, some of his views would be toxic to a lot of people.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Drew Carey in Ohio
I would LOVE, because I think the combination of Brown's populism and Carey's libertarianism might lead to Carey doing relatively well in places like Columbus (especially the northern suburbs) and maybe some wealthier Cleveland suburbs, but Brown would just romp in southern Ohio (i.e. Ted Strickland territory and such).

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
Lots of people muse about being in politics
I'm sure everybody on this site has occasionally imagined themselves in positions of power.

The difference is that when you have fame, fortune, and powerful people whispering in your ear, idle thoughts turn into something actually plausible.  


[ Parent ]
Jerry Springer understands the average voter
a lot better than most of us

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
hahahahahaha
Or at least would attract the ones who usually don't vote.

[ Parent ]
Any word on if
The Ds are still going to lose the Mississippi house by default, i.e., by not fielding candidates in a majority of seats?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

If you go to the MS SOS website
It says that the deadline for state legislative seats has been extended to June 1, ostensibly because they still need to do redistricting of those seats before they can even open up filing for them.  

[ Parent ]
The talk is that the state house & senate will vote on
seperate legislative maps (one for each chamber) this Friday.  Here's an article

http://www.therepublic.com/vie...

the number of AA majority seats will climb to 44?

Its a bipartisan plan.  


[ Parent ]
44 out of 124
Is 35% of the total and a decent indication they don't intend to be holding the majority and are trying to preserve as many seats as they can.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
They might hold on.
They're just going to draw their seats to help make that more likely.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
MS Guv candidate & Borat
James Broadwater was on the Ali G show way back when.  Too funny!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...


[ Parent ]
Indiana Secretary of State
Our brand new, just recently elected Secretary of State was indicted on seven felony counts this afternoon -- including voter fraud, theft, and perjury.  Yes, our top election offical is being charged with voter fraud.  The infuriating thing is that everyone in this state knew this was going to happen, and voted for this crook anyway.

Theft?
Based on what Bob Bobson told me, I get the other charges, but theft? What the hell did he steal?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
He's accused
of taking his salary as a town council member when he didn't live in the district he was representing.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I briefly mentioned that here a few times
I didn't actually think that would stick, though!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Link?
C'mon, dude, this is primo digest material!

[ Parent ]
Link
http://www.indystar.com/articl...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Damn!
I had expected a serious look at the voter fraud charges, but I didn't think they'd get him for collecting that pay, too.

Mitch Daniels, as hoosierdem and I predicted several months ago, seems to me to be trying to get Charlie White to walk the plank. He's already put out a statement urging White to step down, at least temporarily.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Temporary
in the same way Charlie Sheen has "temporarily" left two and a half men.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Hehehe


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Hey Bob.
We discussed this before but what happens if White resigns? I know Daniels appoints someone but is there a special in 2012? I seem to remember you mentioning someone he may appoint, remember who? Thanks.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Off the top of my head I'm not certain what would happen
Daniels would probably appoint a new SoS, but after that I have no idea, and a cursory look at the Indiana Constitution hasn't clarified anything. I'd assume the placeholder would just hold office until 2014, but I'm probably wrong.

As for replacements, he'd probably just move up the Deputy SoS or appoint some squeaky-clean Republican party figure. Don't know any specific names, though.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Good.
I say he resigns by next Tuesday. Probably tomorrow. Daniels is putting on heavy pressure.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
After reading the story MinnesotaMike links to
I have to wonder what his position on same-day registration was while he was a candidate and what it is now.  Making it easier to vote might have solved his entire his problem.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but that wo uld also make it easier to
vote for lots of undesirable people, like the young, minorities, etc.  That's why we have the earliest poll closing in the country -- 6pm.  Further, a bill is working its way through the legislature to allow counties to go to regional voting centers, rather than the neighborhood precients that have existed forever.

[ Parent ]
If White had registered with his new address
There'd be a paper trail for him being in the wrong town council district. He would have had to resign that job then, or else he'd still be getting in trouble for collecting pay he wasn't legally entitled to.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Obama leading all Republicans in Wisconsin.
He's up by seven, nine, ten, 12, and 19 against Huckabee, Paul Ryan(?), Romney, Gingrich, and our girl Sarah Palin.

He's only slightly above water in the state in his overall approval ratings and specifically in his approval ratings with Independents, yet he's still doing fine. While 2010 wasn't a good year for Wisconsin Democrats, I feel as Obama should ultimately win the state even if he isn't reelected. If John Kerry can eek out a small victory, why can't Obama? Maybe he won't win by 14, because the Republicans pour money into the state until the middle of September and that gives them an extra point or two. But seriously, while he's vulnerable, he's stronger, I think, than a lot of people give him credit for.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


I suspect Daniels could perhaps keep this closer, but, yeah, Obama should definitely win here
I'd peg it at Lean D, though it could sway to Likely D to Tilt D, depending on the GOP nominee.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Gov. Daniels won't make it out of the primary, though...
If he even runs at all. He's not conservative enough, he's not very charismatic, his name recognition isn't great, he's firmly tied to President Bush, and his heart isn't going to be in a run that pits him against his buddy Gov. Barbour, who is a near-certain entry at this point.

I don't think there's a Republican in the field who can make President Obama really sweat Wisconsin.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Can Daniels keep it closer?
I didn't know this until last week, but apparently, he ended collective bargaining rights for Indiana state employees, at least in some form, by executive order a few years ago. If that sort of thing is still relevant in 2012 in the state, how can he get around it?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
He wouldn't get around it
Daniels' atrocious record on labor issues is one reason why I thought he would be willing to let the House Republicans here ram through right-to-work.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
BTW, this site is getting to me
I had a dream last night that I was elected to Congress representing PA-02 after some kind of insane, Steve-Cohen-esque multiply-split AA vote, and later was approached by some kind of power broker offering to give me a majority-white district by attaching Center City to the suburbs through Northeast Philly (or something, my brain might have gotten confused and said "West Philly."), forcing me to choose between my conscience and my political future.  Then later I had a dream where I got to have a proper New York bagel and lox, so I might have woken up craving that more than a political career.  But, yes, I actually was redistricting Philly in my sleep.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

Holy cripes
Comment of the day!

[ Parent ]
That last sentence...
You know you've been on SSP too much when...you redistrict in your sleep!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I too am guilty of this...
It's probably a bad thing.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I don't see Ed Pastor as viable
Good to see initial unemployment claims continue to fall.

http://www.businessweek.com/ne...


It'd be a fun primary for his seat though
Well, except that he has a daughter he's been grooming for office, and she might be the easy winner.  Get some of those classic "last name only" campaign signs, like Linc Chafee...

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Haha
I was just think a couple of weeks ago about all the people who could run for his seat... of course I was assuming that the uninteresting back-bencher was a possible retirement instead of someone who envisioned himself a Senator. And I'm sure that he'd like to see Laura Pastor succeed him, but she couldn't even win a damn Phoenix City Council race in 2007 despite massively outspending her opponent; Kyrsten Sinema or Anna Tovar would eat her for breakfast.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
I read Sinema's twitter
She's a long-distance runner, but I'll bet she would sprint to file for that open seat.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
That jobless claims number is a BIG FUCKING DEAL!!! :-D
The average is really coming down, there's now a pattern that we're looking at sub-400K weekly.  I've said here before that 400K is the magic number, get below that and we're talkin' real jobs recovery.  "Real" doesn't mean "rapid," it still can be slow, but it's clearly sloping upward.  And economists say 375K weekly is the magic number for major job growth...we got below that number this time for the first time in 3 years.

Forgot short-term fluctuations in Obama's job approval, if these types of numbers keep improving, game over, we win.

I'm anxious now for the February jobs report coming out in the morning, although I'll miss it with taking the kids to the ear doctor in the morning.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I'll need to see
a few months of solid growth before I feel better, but it does feel like a damn is waiting to burst open, relatively speaking.

Take this for what it's worth, but one of my bosses has been going through the applications because we need to do some hiring (although that's only because they've had to fire people for stealing and so on), and a lot of the people they called had already found jobs.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
If gasoline stays below $5/gallon
$5/gallon for regular gasoline would be the kind of psychological and economic double whammy that could kill the recovery and Obama approval numbers.

Above $5/gallon, it'll be all that anyone can talk about. With a bit more instability in the mid-east, or even unexpectedly fast econ growth, it could happen during '12.

With the relatively "soft" landing we're seeing in Egypt, we've avoided the first hurdle in that area. Libya is hurdle # 2. Yemen looks like #3.

Longer term, $5/gallon gas may be inevitable in the life of this recovery, if someone (Saudi, Russia, Mexico, etc) can't significantly increase production.


[ Parent ]
Gas prices are volatile, $5 anytime soon is mea'ningless......
Unless we're seeing the start of a visible trend that's more lasting, which we'll see at some point in my lifetime, $5 gasoline doesn't matter unless it happens in summer or fall 2012.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
With the current trajectory of economic recovery
$5/gallon in '12 is quite possible.

This time, the economic recovery means more demand from first time auto users in nations like China, India, etc.

As it would be based on economic conditions, it would not be a temporary blip like was seen post-Katrina.

Sure, there are alternative fuels, but that's potentially an anti-D wedge issue, especially at $5/gallon.

The unknown is whether there are producers who can still significantly increase supplies as the world economy recovers. If so, $5/gallon won't happen on a sustained level, and then '12 will be a fine D year politically.

I don't know that the current economic recovery or Obama approval ratings can survive $5/gallon gasoline. And the standard reaction from the netroots would be difficult for most Americans to handle.


[ Parent ]
India and China don't track western business cycles......
Their economies are their own creatures.  They're just not tied into western business cycles the same way and don't have trouble at the same time, or for the same reasons.  I believe both have done quite well the past few years.

But China and India are exactly what I think of as top reasons for long-term price spikes.  Global demand is rising faster than all projections have ever planned on, and supply will hit peak oil at some point.  It could be months, it could be years, it could be decades, but we're going to have a permanent and irreversible oil crisis at some point in my lifetime if God willing I live to be old.

That said, the odds of a gas price spike in late summer/early fall of 2012 are impossible to peg, and can't be expected based on current Middle Eastern crises which in fact will almost certainly resolve themselves well before the 2012 election.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
That's part of my point
I know China's growth did slow down during this recession -- which is why they also added stimulus, proportionally quite a bit more than we did. (I don't know the situation with the Indian economy.)

And they're ready to continue as the world gets ready to absorb more of their exports.

If our economy does slow down from $5/gallon gas, that won't necessarily lower oil prices, as has happened after past oil shock-induced economic slowdowns. That's because China/India are taking up the slack in such demand.

Saudi Arabia is doing a decent job for now ramping up production to compensate for the Libyan situation, which are keeping the markets away from panic.

The other part -- I think you underestimate the psych impact of $5/gallon, nationwide. The Katrina effect was partial -- and didn't get to much of the nation. We saw $4/gallon just for a little bit out here.


[ Parent ]
The humor quotient in Daily Digests seems to be going up recently
No Word On The Size Of The Buy (in case you aren't familiar with that phrase, it means "NWOTSOTB")

I thoroughly approve.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.


wa state
can have a maj-min VAP district

Photobucket

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)


i'd love
to see a franks/flake primary. but flake fits arizona much better than franks does. franks would do well in a southern state more so than a western one

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Fits the whole electorate better
But what about Republican primary voters?

[ Parent ]
heh
This is shaping up as maybe the most interesting primary of the whole season. Flake will get the moderates, libertarians, and pragmatists who just want to win the general. I suspect he'll also do well among Mormon conservatives. Franks will get most of the hardcore social conservatives and angry nationalists. I suspect Flake would have a small edge, but it could go either way.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Nasty primary
Step one in the path to a Democratic win.

[ Parent ]
maybe
I think Flake would probably still beat any Dem except maybe Giffords even after being roughed up in the primary, but Franks would probably lose to a standard-issue Dem such as Goddard or Gordon.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I'm not predicting anything
Just saying a divisive Republican primary was always part of the equation necessary for a competitive general election.

[ Parent ]
He's in
According to RRH sources.  

[ Parent ]
Sounds like it
From the Roll Call source too.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
But we had it before Roll Call.  

[ Parent ]
Well guys
It's time to meet future AZ-02 Representative-elect Jack Harper

If you don't want to follow the link, this picture will tell you all you need to know:

Yeeeaahhhhhhhhh...

Possible candidates on the more sane end of things include Corporation Commissioners Brenda Burns (a former State Senate President) and Bob Stump (no relation to Franks' predecessor), but my money's on Jack.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
In super important news...
I FINALLY finished my 2010 Senate numbers for my DRA map, so I will finally be able to post it here soon!

Oh, and btw, today is my birthday. Happy B-day to me! ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Happy birthday!
You are the 3rd person I know that has a birthday today! How old?  

[ Parent ]
Check above...
I just changed my age today. :-D

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
i know four
what now, GOPVOTER

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
WINNING
I'm still WINNING! I'm a fucking rockstar!  

[ Parent ]
A present for all of us
I've been looking forward to your map for a while.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Btw, a Nevada sneak preview...
In case y'all have to wait until tomorrow morning for my Nevada Redistricting diary, here's what to expect:

- In my map, President Obama likely carried all four Nevada Congressional Districts in 2008... And may very well do so again in 2012.

- Sharron Angle won two of the four CDs in the US Senate race last year, but only by single digits.

- This happened despite me trying to pack as many GOP heavy areas into NV-03 while keeping NV-02 as GOP heavy as possible.

- NV-01 is over 2/3 minority-majority, and well over 40% Latin@ plurality.

- And even NV-04 (barely) made it as minority-majority.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Happy birthday
Although here, it's not your birthday anymore.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Happy birthday!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday!


Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Happy birthday to you!


18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday!


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Happy birthday!


for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
As of thirty minutes ago here
Happy day-after-your-birthday!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Heather Wilson to announce for Senate Monday
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Fools' gold
She's a good recruit, but frankly, she's likely to face a primary from Lt. Gov. Sanchez or Rep. Pearce, and even if she wins the nomination, she's the underdog against a hard-working candidate like Rep. Heinrich or Auditor Balderas who will be able to bank votes among Latinos while enjoying presidential election year turnout in what has become a reliably blue state at the federal level.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't they try to avoid a primary?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Rep. Pearce keeps urging Republicans to coalesce around a "real conservative"...
The implication being that if they can't come up with a consensus candidate who is to Wilson's right, he'll get in the race himself.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Is Sanchez to her right?
No wonder she wanted to get in first.

[ Parent ]
Do you imagine Sanchez
is a candidate for us to worry about?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
No surprise
She will be competitive but either Balderas or Heinrich should be the favorite in a presidential year.

[ Parent ]
Look
over there TPX and Jim DeMint! Another RINO for you to exterminate! Better get on that asap!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Oh Heather Wilson......
Should have ran for Governor.  Wouldn't make me sweat a future national bid from Gov. Martinez.

[ Parent ]
I don't sweat a national bid from Martinez anymore than I would fear one from Wilson
There is no fundraising base in New Mexico, it's not a good place to launch presidential ambitions from.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Martinez could, however, be a useful VP nominee


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Again, I doubt it would matter except maybe for New Mexico itself
Much in the same way that Republicans gained nothing from women by getting Palin as a nominee, Republicans won't gain anything from either Hispanics or women (or Hispanic women for that matter) by having Martinez as a running mate.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Ehh, perhaps it could make a small difference.
It wouldn't surprise me to see the presence of a Hispanic on the Republican ticket, combined with the sort of targeting and outreach that the Bush campaign was known for in 2004, move the needle in their direction by a few points. Hispanics are more willing to vote for Republicans than blacks, so they don't have as high a hill to climb. But we're talking maybe five or six points. Maybe that will help in a few states, but then again, it'll be the sort of election where the Republicans are already doing pretty good.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think the Republican party
is a long ways away from targeting Hispanics the way the Bush campaign did.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Well, yes.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Idaho moving towards closed primaries
http://www.idahoreporter.com/2...
A federal judge ruled that Idaho's open primaries are unconstitutional, meaning that the Idaho GOP will push ahead will its long-standing plans to move the state towards closed primaries. As this is Idaho, I assume this is nothing but bad for us, as even if it makes the Republicans nominate more extreme candidates they will still win almost every time.

As a side note, the story links to a Boise State poll showing that Republican affiliation in Idaho has declined from 41% in 2000 to 34% today, while Independents have risen from 28% then to 39% now, marking the first time in the history of this annual survey that indies outnumbered Republicans in Idaho. Democratic identification has stayed the same (22% in both 2000 and 2010), however, so it seems this is more a case of Republicans identifying as indies than anything else. The most interesting thing to me in this poll is that 73% of people strongly or somewhat supported a program "that would allow illegal immigrants to stay in this country permanently", although 56% strongly or somewhat supported enacting an SB1070-style immigration law. Personally I would have expected the path to citizenship program support to be much lower and the SB1070 support to be somewhat higher.

Male, VA-08


I disagree that it's a bad thing
Idaho will almost certainly add a third district by 2022, and that means one district will almost certainly be centered on the Boise-Nampa metro. While a moderate Republican could hold down an urban district in Idaho, Flaming McBagoftea is going to have a hell of a lot of trouble.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
and even more long-term
Boise/Nampa could move Idaho much more blue overall and we could eventually slip in some moderate Dems statewide because of overly conservative GOP primary winners.

[ Parent ]
MS Lt. Gov.: Feds shouldn't oversee Miss. redistricting
http://leadercall.com/statenew...

Obviously, Mississippi Republicans would rather have a 4-0 map, but the VRA prevents that. One of the comments from the article that really struck me as ridiculous, was from this one person.

"Lynn Cheramie, a member of the Hancock County Federation of Republican Women, applauded Wednesday as Bryant criticized the Voting Rights Act. After the speech, Cheramie said she worries that Democrats will gerrymander legislative districts to protect their turf. She also said she was puzzled that Bush signed the renewal of the Voting Rights Act.

"Certainly, 1964 is way behind us and we're all long past that," said Cheramie, 71."

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.


LOL, they wish.
They wish they could draw the disenfranchizing maps of old.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
More MS news: Legislative map plan unveiled
http://www.therepublic.com/vie...

Number majority-minority districts rises from 39 to 44.

The map

http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/p...

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.


I count about 50 seats
that some individual resembling a Democrat could win (demographics here). In other words, about 40% of the chamber.

Seems like it's over.  


[ Parent ]
Only six seats that aren't majority-minority that a Democrat COULD win
Wow... how Mississippi has changed.

On the other hand, 20 years down the road the minority population will make Mississippi a lot more hospitable to Democrats.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Obama's chances in Nebraska
I came across an interesting article in The Atlantic about Obama's chances in Nebraska, specifically Omaha. These paragraphs in particular caught my eye:

Obamaha in 2012?

In his book How Barack Obama Won, MSNBC's Chuck Todd makes the point that the Obama camp played to win in Omaha. "What did the Obama folks prove: half of politics is showing up and the Obama campaign showed up in Omaha, while the McCain campaign did not."

Obama will surely have enough money to spend in 2012, and it will spend plenty in Omaha trying to reach Iowa voters across the river. In 2008, Obama spent over $628,000 in TV ads in this market. So from their perspective, it makes sense to target Nebraska's 2nd again.

But Omaha strategist Solomon Kleinsman, who founded the local grassroots group Omaha for Obama in 2007, doesn't think he'll win it again.

"This district leans right, because it includes a rural area south of town (the city is pretty evenly split), so for a Democrat to win they have to get all the Democrats, make the North Omaha black community come out in droves, South Omaha Latinos show up, and also get a comfortable majority of the swing vote," Kleinsmith says. "I just don't see that happening this next time around."

African-Americans account for 9.6 percent of the district's population while Latinos account for 8.6 percent. Assuming he wins 95 percent of blacks and 65 percent of Latinos (my own predictions), my calculations shows that he would need to win 42 percent of whites in the 2nd District to win it again.

He won 39 percent of whites in all of Nebraska in 2008. I don't have data for each congressional district within the state, but I imagine his share of the white vote was much higher in Omaha. Even so, he only won by a margin of 3,325 votes.

It will, of course, be a moot point if the Nebraska legislature decides to rewrite the law that awards votes by congressional district. Or will it? I imagine Obama will have enough money to toss a few million, or perhaps even a significant sum, in Nebraska if only with the goal of helping Ben Nelson. He probably won't win the state unless he's winning in a massive landslide, but saving a senate seat, even one occupied by someone as annoying as Ben Nelson, is worth the cost.

I'm of the mind that a campaign's presence is rarely, if ever, a negative thing. The effects might be limited, but since the campaign didn't try as hard for the state as it did for other states, diminishing returns probably haven't kicked in. What's giving me some pause, though, is the claim from Solomon Kleinsman that he isn't happy with Obama. If this is the sort of unhappiness that will dissipate by the time of the election, because either his feelings will improve if the economy gets better or because the contrast between Obama and the nuttiness of the Republican candidate becomes more apparent, then it probably won't matter. But if it's something deeper, then he could be in trouble. He has to build on his support from last time, obviously, and since it wasn't that strong in the first place, he can't afford to alienate that many people.

On another note, why does this article identify the Omaha for Obama founder as Solomon Kleinsman but then Klinesmith? How can error like that makes it way into The Atlantic?

http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


PPP found Obama leading by 8-25 points in
NE-02. So... I call BS on that.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
What makes you think it's so far off?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It's another bit of worthless analysis because it is in a vacuum
Somebody doesn't think Obama can win against Palin?  How about Charlie Manson?

It's ridiculous to speak about one side of an equation without addressing the other.

Of course the statements are silly too given the polling.  If someone had to bet right now on whether Obama would do better this time than 2008 in that district, you would have to hate money to bet against him.  Sure, the GOP might nominate a good candidate who beats him, but every bit of evidence so far has Obama outperforming 2008 most everywhere.


[ Parent ]
WI-Gov
I'm not sure I get why these associations are doubling down on FAIL.  Whatever side of the actually issue your on, objectively, Walker totally fumbled the optics of this stunt.  Why keep dumping more money of this diaster?  They need to cut him loose if they want to retain any kind of credibility.  It's entirely possible that he gets this "budget repair" thing passed, but the tactics used have been wildly unpopular.  When you're threatening to hunt down the WI 14, when you've locked down the capitol, when you get caught on tape revealing your dastardly plans, etc...you've already lost control of the situation.

What do you think
the fallout might be if he does give pink slips to state employees?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It's only going to make it worse for Walker. Trouble is, we NEED the recall effort...
...to succeed.

The state Senate Dems need relief, they can't hold out forever, at some point it becomes physically imposssible.  I don't know when or how the session ends, if it's by operation of law or instead the state Senate as a body has full control or a little of both.  But to be safe I would bet the GOP can keep the session open indefinitely.

I want to give money to the pro-labor ads playing there and to the recall effort but haven't gotten around to it yet.

If the recall succeeds and they can get a few GOPers erased, that will be an earth-shattering win for both unions and Democrats.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
One of the Senators is
7 months pregnant.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Oui, Julie Lassa est enceinte.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I read on Huffpost that
Walker will anounce 1500 layoffs tomorrow if the bill doesn't pass.  He is "cautiously optimistic" that the Dems can be brought back, but says that the removal of collective bargaining is non-negotiable.

He's violating one of the key rules in negotiating...don't talk in absolutes unless there's overwhelming support for your position.  He's setting himself up for a massive fall.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
are they still getting paid?
is anyone helping with their expenses while out of state?

[ Parent ]
One of them successfully used a loophole.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Also
They can use campaign money for this, which they're getting through Actblue and stuff.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
If that's true, that's huge. It lets them survive indefinitely, and they'll win. And that's huge nationally...
...for Democrats.  It's huge for workers' issues and labor and liberals and everything.

It would be PATCO in reverse.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Maybe the rasmussen poll today is starting to sink in with Walker...
http://twitter.com/ScottMilfre...

.@GovWalker just suggested stuff like union certification and dues in paychecks are "on the table" in talks w/ Dems #wiunion #wipolitics
about 12 hours ago via web


[ Parent ]
I don't get that.
What does that mean and does it mean that they could negotiate away the part of the bill removing the collective bargaining agreements?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
What do you say?
It's still so nebulous.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Well, if you are one of the Wisconsin 14...
You do nothing until that bill is officially amended in committee with the changes intact.  Getting rid of the union busting parts of the bill is a significant pullback.  I['m not sure you can get much more, but it will at least allow labor to survive until the next election.

[ Parent ]
Well
the CBA removal is still in there, but if this what the final deal will look like, I hope they pursue this in the state courts to see whether it was lawful to do this unilaterally (i.e. without any input from unions on these terms).

The possible removal of the part that requires an annual recertification is the "union busting" part you are speaking of, I presume?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yes, that and dues collection... n/t


[ Parent ]

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