Maybe the Georgians?

Bishop and Barrow. (of course that also depends on redistricting)

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by: tietack @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 16:23:37 PM UTC

Both have a difficult prospect in the redistricting process, then

surely both will be in the next rounds.

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by: abgin @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 16:25:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Depends

There are VRA concerns dismantling their districts and both will benefit from high AA turnout for Obama

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by: hawkeye77 @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 16:37:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I doubt Republicans can really go after both.

Not without dummymandering and/or violating the VRA.  They need to shore up Austin Scott (adjacent to both GA-02 and GA-12, although moreso for the former).  Plus, there's a plethora of fairly contiguous Democratic/black votes in Middle and South Georgia.  A Republican taking up these areas might be forced to sweat.  At the very least, Republicans will have to concede one Democratic seat.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 18:12:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A few

GA-2, especially since we all thought Barrow lost at first on E-day.

IN-2, especially with how much Donnelly is fretting about running for re-election.

KY-3, would've though that's as vulnerable as KY-6.

NC-11, though that may have to do with Shuler's recent battles with leadership.

Other targeted seats from 2010 that may be worth considering: AZ 7, CA-20, CT-5, OH-13, WI-3.

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by: sspiker @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 16:25:55 PM UTC

IN-2

Very odd that Donnelly isn't on here. I wonder if they expect he'll run for senate?

22, male, VA-10

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by: Bharat @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 16:45:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think there might be a new IN-02

that is so overwhelmingly Republican it might be more-or-less written off.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 17:31:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Donnelly and Shuler yes

Barrow will benefit from AA turnout unless GOP finds way to radically change the district.
CT 5 is open so wouldn't be on this list...I don't think it will be a tough hold in a Pres year anyway.
Grijalva won't have a problem.  2010 was weird with low low Latino turnout in AZ and his boycott comments.
Sutton isn't vulnerable in her current district but it is going to be merged with a Cleveland Dem anyway.
Kind should be fine but the district could be vulnerable when it opens up. Braley in the district across from WI 3 really had a tougher race than Kind

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by: hawkeye77 @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 16:48:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

RE: KY-03

If his district remains around the same lines it is right now, Yarmouth will be fine. He won by double digits in the worst year to be a Southern Democrat in generations.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 17:28:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Shuler

I suspect that may mean that the word in NC is that he is less likely to be screwed in redistricting than McIntyre or Kissell. A couple weeks ago the Reeps ran some ads in a bunch of Dem districts, and again McIntyre and Kissell were on the list and Shuler wasn't. I think that the Dems would probably protect Shuler over McIntyre, since Shuler votes with them more often.

I disagree on Yarmuth, who won by 10 points in 2010 and is probably untouchable now.

I agree on Costa and would probably throw Cardoza in there as well. Both have gerrymandered districts that are likely to change under the state's new commission redistricting system.

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 17:35:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What does the O/K column mean?

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by: thematt523 @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 16:26:14 PM UTC

I assume Obama/Kerry

n/t

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by: sspiker @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 16:27:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

I meant to note that in the post and have since done so. We feel that breaking out these numbers is more helpful than any sort of aggregate combined number. It's important to see how Obama did relative to Kerry, and a single number really obscures that.

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by: DavidNYC @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 16:29:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Misses

Donnelly, Shuler, Altmire...maybe Holden
Critz, Carnahan, and Peters will likely be w/o a district...Boswell paired with Latham

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by: hawkeye77 @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 16:35:19 PM UTC

Holden is adjacent to

enough wobbly Republicans that he's a pretty safe bet to blue up in redistricting. Unless the GOP is really stupid.

25, PA-10

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by: Joseph @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 04:47:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If McNerney can win a primary, he'll have a safe district

The population loss will make Pete Stark's seat a likely elimination, with Alameda County being divided more compact. Rather McNerney can win a primary against Stark is not clear, but I do think they'll end up in the same district.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 16:38:58 PM UTC

I suspect the same thing...

Which is that Prop 20 may ultimately provide Jerry McNerney with a safer seat, even as other CA Dems (Mike Thompson? Lois Capps?) may have to run in more competitive seats. He lives in Pleasanton, so he'll probably end up running in whatever district gets the stretch of Alameda/CoCo currently in CA-11.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 18:50:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We can tell the same for other democrats in the list

The obvious examples in the list are:

G Giffords AZ-08
J McNerney CA-11
W Owens NY-23
T Bishop NY-01
K Schrader OR-05
G Connolly VA-11

All them have favorable prospect in the redistricting process. Their districts can be going to safer dem and surely they need to adapt to a new situation (going to the left) surely since now. The money will help them.

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by: abgin @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 00:43:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

For me the most endangered incumbents that are not would be

I'm a little surprised of see not:

OH-13 B Sutton
TN-05 J Cooper
GA-02 S Bishop
GA-12 J Barrow
IN-02 J Donnelly
OK-02 D Boren
NC-11 H Shuler
TX-28 H Cuellar
and more from Texas
PA-04 J Almire

Bold emphasized the most surprising. Surely T Holden, C Peterson, N Rahall and M Ross need not.

I think it is a very interesting list of absents... I'm not fan of the majority.  

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by: abgin @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 17:22:06 PM UTC

Betty Sutton probably won't be vulnerable...

Next year because OH-13 is destined to pick up more heavily Dem precincts, as it will likely be combined with another safe Dem Cleveland district (maybe Dennis Kucinich's?).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 19:05:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Geographically OH-13 is a lot more vulnerable than the district of Kucinich

And B Sutton lives in the wrong part of her district. Despite someone find to destroy Kucinich district the result can be to destroy OH-13.

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by: abgin @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 00:35:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gabby Giffords is not vulnerable

assuming she runs for reelection

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 17:24:55 PM UTC

Seconded

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by: markhanna @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 17:41:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

AZ8

The district is potentially vulnerable because her status is so uncertain: she might not be in shape to run for anything, and at the other end she might recover so quickly that she could plausibly run for the Senate.  

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 17:45:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think it's to help with her fundraising, nm

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by: tietack @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 17:45:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A NJ Dem

Is going to need help come next year.  But we don't know if it's Holt or Pallone or someone else.  The likelihood that all 7 Dems in NJ are safe is very small.

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by: patlak @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 17:51:41 PM UTC

I think the chance of have a democrat from NJ in trouble cause of the redistriciting is very low

The democrats seems favored in the process.

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by: abgin @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 00:46:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK-02 and NC-11

Both have the same issue: Republicans in control of redistricting and lots of safe red territory around these two Democratic(allegedly)-held seats to from which to pull Republican voters.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 17:52:26 PM UTC

But Shuler seems to have a hold...

On NC-11 at this point. And close was OK-02 last year? Has Boren had a tough time lately? If both are popular enough to withstand the biggest GOP wave since 1994, what else can the GOP do to redistrict them out of seats that theoretically "should be GOP" anyway?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 19:03:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Look at those districts and what's around them.

Both are comparatively blue but surrounded by blood red districts.  

Despite the view of NC-11 as blood red, the margin was something like 51 McCain to 47 Obama.  It borders a couple of 60+ McCain districts, districts that can afford to take on Democratic areas in exchange for Republican areas.  

With OK-02, it's no where near as close to competitive presidentially as NC-11, but it contains what passes for Democratic areas in Oklahoma (e.g. the only counties Gore won in Oklahoma).  And every other district in Oklahoma is crimson and can exchange red territory for relatively less red territory.

And in both cases, this forces the incumbent Democrats into areas that are both heavily Republican (meaning strong headwinds) and unfamiliar with them.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 19:53:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's what they did in Texas

 During the mid decade redistricting, there were many Democrats that were popular in Republican districts. The redistricting however sent them into unfamiliar territory where the voters did not know them and were not used to supporting them.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 22:43:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Boren

seems to be in Matheson territory: he's not going anywhere.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

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by: HoosierD42 @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 05:45:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

maybe IA-01?

Braley's margin of victory in IA-01 (49.5% to 47.5%) was smaller than Boswell's in IA-03 (50.6% to 46.6%), even though IA-01 is D+5 and IA-03 is D+1. Braley has the advantage of being based in eastern Iowa, where there tend to be more Democrats, and I think he could win a district that adds counties in NE Iowa. However, depending on his new map he could be vulnerable--especially if Latham decides to run against him instead of in the new IA-03.

Redistricting is a bigger risk for Boswell because if they draw the district with mostly counties to the south and west of Des Moines, it will end up having a Republican lean.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 03:25:30 AM UTC