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HI-Sen: Dan Akaka to Retire

by: Crisitunity

Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 7:21 PM EST


Hawaii's 86-year-old junior Senator, Dan Akaka, has announced that he won't seek re-election in 2012:

After months of thinking about my political future, I am announcing today that I have decided not to run for re-election in 2012. As many of you can imagine, it was a very difficult decision for me. However, I feel that the end of this Congress is the right time for me to step aside. It has been a great honor and privilege to serve the people of Hawaii. In 2006, the people of Hawaii gave me an opportunity to continue my service in the United States Senate and I fully intend to serve the last two years of my term in office.

Dan Akaka, in his statement, singles out colleague Dan Inouye for particular thanks; I've gotta wonder how much Inouye's recent comments prodding Akaka to get his butt in gear, fundraising-wise, may have helped clarify things for him, as all signs prior to that had been that Akaka was on track to run for re-election. The questions now are: does this make the race more appealing to ex-Gov. Linda Lingle (the only Republican in the state who could make this a competitive race, although her once-sky-high popularity was starting to dwindle when she left office last year), and who all piles into the once-in-a-lifetime Democratic primary? Rep. Mazie Hirono seems like a likely starting point, although we might also see ex-Rep. Ed Case, who lost an ill-advised 2006 primary against Akaka, re-emerge from the woodwork. Former Honolulu mayor and losing 2010 Dem gubernatorial primary candidate Mufi Hannemann also would be high on the list.

Crisitunity :: HI-Sen: Dan Akaka to Retire
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Mazie Hirono!


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

Agree.
  Hirono for Senate! I think she would join the Senate Progressive Caucus.

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
well, if ed case,
or some scandal plauged dem runs as does linda lingle, this would go down to lean D.  otherwise it's probably likely D now and safe D by 2012 barring an absolute surprise.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Likely Democratic at least.
In addition - Obama may be more or less popular in the country, but he will be popular in Hawaii for sure.... Probably - Hirono, but most likely there will be long list of candiddates and crowded primary - it's a life-time opportunity..

[ Parent ]
I really doubt Lingle has a chance here
She wasn't really that popular, and Hawaii is so Democratic I don't think she could really make it. Personally I think the biggest fight will be in the Democratic primary, where progressives need to do everything they can to make sure Ed Case does not win. My greatest fear is that multiple progressive candidates, possibly Hirono and Hanabusa, jump in to the race, split the progressive vote, and allow Case to win the primary.

Male, VA-08

I have a feeling Mazie would get first shot.
Hanabusa will probably run in 2016.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Hanabusa has been in congress for 2 months
She wouldn't jump in and run for the senate.  I hope that Case doesn't get in, he's a big dickbag that lost us that congressional race due to his ego.  What an ass. I'd like to see Hirono run.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Hanabusa will probably
be lined up for a 2016 run.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I don't like Case either, but...
he's a big dickbag that lost us that congressional race due to his ego

That's rewriting history, Case was ahead of Hanabusa until the actual special (and he still was fairly close, all things considered), not to mention I could easily say the same about Hanabusa if it came down to it, after all Case would have defeated Djou without Hanabusa in the race (as it would be if Case hadn't entered).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Hanabusa came in 2nd
So yeah, gotta fault Case here. I mean, you can't exactly say that Gore held back Nader!

What's more, who knows how well Hanabusa might have done had the D-Trip not made it clear they preferred Case and wanted her out of the race. The DCCC should only have engaged in that kind of interference if Hanabusa were disastrously, skeleton-in-the-closet unelectable. Obviously that wasn't at all the case, considering she won in November.


[ Parent ]
Oh come on, bringing up Nader is disingenuous
Hanabusa came out ahead of Case by three points, the difference between second and third was extremely close, and by your logic, the fault would be Hanabusa's if she was the unlucky one who came in third.

Hanabusa ran because she's ambitious and because she wanted a seat in congress, the same as Case, both were strong candidates and if Hawaii had a primary Djou would never have one, but that's not Case's fault any more than it would have been Hanabusa's fault would she have come in third.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
not to sound cliché, but
the only poll that matters is on election day. if there had been only one Dem in the race, that person would have won. and given the lean of the district, Hanabusa was simply the better candidate. And seeing as Hanabusa won more votes in the actual election, I have no problem blaming Case for the loss.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
The fault lies with the mechanism not with the candidates
It is still absolutely the case (no pun intended) that both Hanabusa and Case would have won the seat with no problem had the other not been in the race, which means that assuming Case was a spoiler (which is basically where all of you guys are coming from) is simply inaccurate, and I'll defend this position forever if it comes down to it.

You may have no problem blaming Case, but that doesn't make it a logically defensible position.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I agree with you
But I think we can all agree the final outcome in November was the best possible result even if it took time to get there.

[ Parent ]
Oh I definitely agree with that
And like I said before, I can't stand Case, I was most pleased when Hanabusa did better than him and ultimately won in November.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
you're right
it's not "blame" so much as wishing he never ran in the first place.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
Just like Hillary Clinton was ahead of Obama until the actual primaries, eh? ;)
[ Parent ]
Eh, Case's big problem is that he has no friends among Hawaii's establishment
Not to mention he's already a loser from 2010 and 2006. I'm not all that worried about Case winning statewide anymore.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
which is exactly why I blame him
for the temporarily lost seat.  And you have to wonder why he didn't challenge Hannabussa in the primary last year.  My guess would be because he knew he couldn't ever win a one-on-one primary and that his only chance at becoming a Congresscritter was in a three-way race where he's essentially the Lincoln Chaffee/dude from ME on the ballot.  Which ultimately deduces down to this; he intentionally played the role of spoiler bc it was his only shot at winning.

[ Parent ]
I stand by what before
Unless there was a primary before the special general, it'd be stupid of Case, who wanted a congressional seat, to allow Hanabusa to get a leg up with incumbency (same as it would have been for Hanabusa).

And like I said before, Case's chances of winning before the election were still no worse than Hanabusa's, he was leading Hanabusa in polling before the primary (sometimes by wide margins) there is so much history rewriting about Case and the HI-01 special that it gets to the point of being ridiculous.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Ack, I mean I stand by what I SAID before n/t


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Thanks to Dan Inouye for subtly prodding Akaka
into making this decision.
Will Inouye make an endorsement I wonder? I've read that he sort of supports Case.

Sarcasm?
Anybody but Case.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Inouye was a big supporter of
Hanabusa's in the 2010 primary.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Link, plz?
I've read that he sort of supports Case.

[ Parent ]
from how much Inouye seems mentor Hanabusa
I would guess he could support Case simply to give her a more open shot at his seat when he retires.

[ Parent ]
Good time for a change
With Obama's coattails there will never be a better time for a Democrat to run in Hawaii than in 2012.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

I definitely agree.
Akaka is really old even by the old standards of the Senate, and with Obama still overwhelmingly popular in his birth state (unlike his home state in Illinois) will help a lot with him on the ballot in 2012.

Linda Lingle (who is indeed the ONLY Republican that keeps this race from being safe D) would benefit immensely if there was an extremely nasty Democratic primary, which by the way is very likely to happen if Case is involved.


[ Parent ]
Lingle would be a disaster, she's VERY unpopular......
Lingle finished her Governorship at 41-56 job approval in the 2010 HI-Gov exit poll, and similarly poor numbers (44% approve and disapproval in the 50s) in a Honolulu Star-Advertiser poll in late October.

Pretty obvious she's damaged goods.

There's no one else, but they probably would be better off with some no-name Asian/Native Hawaiian businessperson than Lingle.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Links?
Do you have links to any of the polls testing Lingle? Very curious to see how strong she is/isn't...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Thanks for doing my work for me, conspiracy, as those were exactly...
...the web pages I found myself.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I also agree

Before begin the cycle my rank of right "democratic" retirements was the next:

1 CT-Sen: J Lieberman
2 HI-Sen: D Akaka
3 CA-Sen: D Feinstein
4 VA-Sen: J Webb

The last only if T Kaine runs. And the list end here.

I'm so happy until now:

- For Connecticut J Lieberman will retire and the the top frontrunners are in.

- For Hawaii D Akaka will retire also, now is time of work about the recruitment.

- California is following Hawaii in the rank of aged high level incumbents but still it is not a trouble.

- For Virginia I was neutral: J Webb or T Kaine. J Webb will retire. Now, I would be highly disappointed if T Kaine run not. I would not understand if the DNC chair has not this minimum level of compromise with the Democratic Party.

We have also (and I wish see not more):

- The retirement of K Conrad (ND-Sen) that is not a good new but seems understandable.

- The retirement of J Bingaman (NM-Sen) that I wish give not trouble. H Balderas is a good level candidate.


[ Parent ]
Besides good riddance to Kyl, best news of the cycle
Time for someone else, and let everyone pile in who wants to.  Hopefully the result will be a far more active progressive voice in the Senate... even if a younger machine voice is more likely.

[ Parent ]
Senator Hirono
I think that's the most probable result.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Possible D candidates
I think any discussion of successors starts with Inouye's list from the 2/28 DD

http://www.khon2.com/news/loca...

Asked whether because of a retirement, a primary challenge or eventual succession who would be strong contenders, Inouye listed in this order: Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz, Rep. Mazie Hirono, Gov. Neil Abercrombie and Mufi Hannemann. Asked about former Congressman Ed Case, Inouye said him, too, and added Veterans Affairs Department Assistant Secretary Tammy Duckworth.

If there's any year that an open Sen seat in HI would be safe
D, it's 2012.

If Alvin Greene moves to HI and by some disaster becomes the D candidate, against Lingle, I might consider moving this to "likely D".


I think the words "in this order"
suggests who Inouye would endorse first, if they chose to run.

[ Parent ]
Exactly and the first
two were just elected. Mazie seems like the most likely.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Tammy Duckworth
is such an odd name to bring up.
It won't be her, but has anyone ever run twice for the House from two different states before?

[ Parent ]
My wild guess: implicit slam at Case
aka "I'd rather support an import before I support Case"

(In the article, Inouye does go into Duckworth's HI roots.)


[ Parent ]
Nancy Skinner
ran for Senate in Illinois and then for Congress in Michigan.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Off the top of my head
Ed Foreman served one term representing West Texas in the house in the 1960s, got knocked off, moved to New Mexico, served another term in Congress, and then lost again.

[ Parent ]
For senators...
... James Shields - an Irish-born senator in the 19th century - served as senator from three different states at various points: Illinois, Missouri, and Minnesota.  

[ Parent ]
and to think many dream of becoming a Senator
From just one state!  Three?  That's ridiculous and I can't wait to get home and look him up

[ Parent ]
Ben L. Jones, who was on The Dukes of Hazard
He was a Democratic Congressman from Georgia from 1989-1993.  After redistricting he lost the 1992 primary and in 1994 he ran against Newt Gingrich, getting 35%.  In 2002 he ran against Eric Cantor and got 30%.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
While not officially
Harold Ford did make a bit of news for trying to run in the New York Senate Primary before realizing that no one wanted him.  

[ Parent ]
David Harmer, three-time loser
Ran in UT-02 in '96, CA-10 in '09, CA-11 in '10.

[ Parent ]
Ick, I didn't know that about Harmer.
How could anyone vote for that carpetbagger?  I know sometimes people throw that word around, and it may be because someone moved to a place, and then right after ran, which may have been coincidence, but this guy has run in THREE different districts spanning two states?  Oh my god.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
David Harmer
ran for Congress in Utah in 1996 and in California in the CA-10 special and CA-11 last year.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
And in the Senate...
James Buckley's the answer to a tough trivia question on what former U.S. Senator ran for the Senate under two different parties in two different states.

As for the House, I'm sure if you open it up to the losers who got like 1% of the vote, you'd find some repeat entries of people who ran in different states.


[ Parent ]
Justifying my rating
President Obama won 71% in '08. I think chances are good that number will go up in '12.

In other words, for an R to have a chance statewide, a full 1/3 of voters for President Obama would have to split their tickets.

(OTOH, Hiram Fong did win in '64 in the face of LBJ's 78% in the state. But he was an incumbent.)


[ Parent ]
I think Obama and Akaka can have also some word here
I think D Inouye forget two prominent potential candidates:

E Shinseki (1942)
J Waihe'e (1946)

If they want the job I would tell they are over the rest.

I think also M Hirono (1946) would be before C Hanabusa (1951).


[ Parent ]
Why the oldest candidates first?
That would be exactly the wrong approach for a state like Hawaii.

The ability to build up seniority is important, especially for a state that otherwise gets forgotten.

In addition, Inouye is not a forgetful kind of person. And if he did unintentionally forget someone, a correction would have been made by now.

Shinseki afaik has --never-- shown any interest in elective politics. Waihee hasn't been in politics since '94 (though he endorsed Mink's widower, who still lost to Case).


[ Parent ]
since the older to the younger there are 9 years old

If you find to raise seniority, then you should forget all then. D Akaka was appointed at 63 years old in 1990 and C Hanabusa will be 61 the election day. She would not raise more seniority than D Akaka, and the seniority of D Akaka give not him high power. They are not the right persons if you want to have seniority.

B Schatz the new LG is a lot younger. Better since this point, but he would be enough experienced and he would have enough weight for defeat L Lingle? I'm not sure.

The seniority is not all.

I put E Shinseki and J Waihe'e before because they are more experienced and I think they would have better chance than M Hirono and C Hanabusa. I forget not M Hirono lost in 2002 against L Lingle for Governor. Why not to poll them with M Hirono or C Hanabusa and see?

E Shinseki is obviously the closer potential candidate to Obama. (Look to T Kaine).

J Waihe'e is the governor that appoint D Akaka. Popular governor, then. Only one year older than M Hirono. And Hawaii is the state of the political come backs.


[ Parent ]
An important question that help not M Hirono and C Hanabusa for a senate bid

It is not L Lingle running for the senate.

D Aiona and C Djou are waiting for a open house seat. And even L Lingle can run for it. Here is some danger like we see the last year.


[ Parent ]
If HI-01 was out of reach for a Republican incumbent in a great GOP year...
Both districts will be completely untouchable in a presidential cycle no matter who runs.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
The trouble here is not only in the R side

Looking to the democratic side, who would be the next in line?

Ed Case (for both seats)
Mufi Hannemann (more likely for HI-01)

That mean another expensive and hard primary if you want to defeat E Case, and another expensive general because the republicans would have again a strong candidate. This is not the best escenario in ya year where the DCCC needs all the money for defeat one-term republican incumbents.


[ Parent ]
Older in age does not equal electoral experience
Shinseki has 0 electoral experience
Wahihee has no electoral experience for nearly 2 decades

Do you have any evidence that either of them is interested?

Inouye did not name either of them as viable candidates. Inouye would know.

I do not worry about any of the candidates suggested by Inouye as Ds in '12, however. As President Obama may get 75%+ in HI in '12, any of the candidates --named by Inouye-- would win easily.


[ Parent ]
Obama

Just I think Obama is a key factor in the retirement of D Akaka. Then, I think he can have some word here. Then I take not Inouye's words as a Bible. We will see.

Why I would need evidence in the case of E Shinseki or J Waihe'e and not for the rest?

I use not the word "electoral" (experience). It is your word.

Still, you should not underestimate the effect in the memory of the people of a popular former governor. Recently we see it in the polls for NJ-Sen with the people voting for Kean only because his father was a popular governor.

In 2008 J Waihe'e was in the Hawaii Delegation to the Democratic National Convention with all the other prominent democrats that sound for this race.

http://ilind.net/2008/08/31/ha...

And about E Shinseki, well, I think he would run in a different way. Do you think Hawaii would reject him if Obama want to have him in the senate and support him for the race? I think not.


[ Parent ]
Why would President Obama go out of his way
to PO Senator Inouye?

Especially on behalf of candidates with no current electoral experience?

What you suggest would split the HI D party, a lose-lose proposition all the way around.

Besides, POing Inouye would make life more difficult for President Obama in the next Congress, especially if the Senate after '12 ends up 51/49 or 50/50 D.


[ Parent ]
As for the reason Akaka chose to retire
It appears that you did not read the diary, nor the article cited by David N a couple of days ago where Inouye implied a possible primary of Akaka.

There is no evidence that President Obama pushed Akaka out.


[ Parent ]
D Akaka retires because it is obviously the right moment for it and

and because he has a lot of pressure for it from all the sides (public pressures and private pressures).

Inouye's pressure is one more, important, but not the alone. Sure.

This is the right moment for D Akaka retirement only cause of one reason: Obama is also running for president in 2012. In other words, Obama will help a lot to the new democratic candidate. Do you think Obama (and with him the DSCC and the DCCC) will have not word here? I think he will have, they will have.

If E Shinseki enter in the race will be not in a divisive way, will be with all the support (of Obama, of the DSCC, of Inouye, of all...).

And for the case of J Waihee, we can not forget him. Just we see a close case (looking to the political experience, not to the ideology) in Iowa 2010 with T Branstad. And T Branstad defeats the incumbent. I see him a lot stronger than M Hirono and C Hanabusa (and create not new house open seat=more headaches for the DCCC).

We will see. I mean only we should not forget E Shinseki and J Waihe'e.


[ Parent ]
The
only worry is Case or even worse Hannemann winning the primary. That would be awful. Anyone else would be fine. I like the LG as he is very young and would likely have a very long career. However either reps would be. It will probably be Hirono and that is fine by me. I doubt Hanabusa moves up after one term unless Hirono does not want it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Rating
Safe D without, Likely D with Djou, Lean D with Lingle.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

I mostly agree with your rating
Considering that Djou lost in an uber Republican year without Obama on the ballot, I seriously doubt he would do better than a generic no-name. Not to mention he has said he is done with politics after his loss in 2010.

Lingle starts as only a slight underdog but it will require a lot of work to simply stay as that, let alone move up to toss-up territory. She is much less popular than Obama at this point of time and Hawaii is probably the most Democratic state in the country if you combine both the liberal ideology and minuscule amount of Republicans in the Hawaii Legislature (only 1 Republican in the State senate if I recall?)


[ Parent ]
Yeah, basically
The thing with Lingle is, should she choose to jump in, she'll likely have the field to herself. That, as opposed to what could be a very crowded, divisive and costly D primary. I think anyone but Ed Case would probably beat Lingle in the end, given President Obama's likely coattails atop the D ticket. Lingle would need about a fourth of Democrats, I think, to win.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Case and any other Dem will crush Lingle or any other Republican......
As I made the point in a couple other comments here, Lingle finished her Governorship with badly underwater job approvals, a horrible 41-56 in the 2010 exit poll and a poor 44-51 in the late October Honolulu Star Advertiser newspaper poll.

HI Sen 2012 is unique, there is zero chance any Republican can beat any Democrat.

Some of the notions here about Lingle and Ed Case are strange.  Yes Case is controversial, but that kills him in a primary, not a general.  If he wins a primary, he wins in November the same as any other Democrat.  He's disliked for his Liebermanesque politics and his out-of-place primarying of Akaka 6 years ago, but if those things aren't enough to derail him in a primary, he'll win in November.  Turnout will be sky-high for Obama, and all Democrats downballot will win.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Zero
There's never 'zero' chance - Lingle is a credible candidate even though she'd have to draw an inside straight to win, but it's not impossible to imagine.  What if there is a really divisive Dem primary and then the winner has a 'Macaca moment'?  People are known to split their tickets sometimes.  I'd put her chances at 5-10% which is low, but not zero.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
There is more chance of Dems winning TX


[ Parent ]
Perhaps
I don't necessarily disagree with you there.  Say the Dems nominate an acceptable moderate and the GOP nominates Williams who goes all crazy on the stump - could happen.  Not likely, but possible.  I would certainly not claim that the chance of the Dems winning TX is zero.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
In all fairness, I think Lingle's better than the entire Texas D bench combined
I agree she'd have an uphill climb, but I'd peg her chances at way higher than John Sharp's, for instance.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
You continue to have this image of Lingle at odds with the data......
Lingle is no longer well-liked.  Whatever Hawaiian voters thought of her in 2002 and 2006, they no longer think of her that way.

So no, she's not better than the best of the Dems' Texas bench.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Lingle did win statewide.
Regardless, I think the comparison is wanting.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
So did Sharp
Twice. Still, both are likely retention by the incumbent party.

[ Parent ]
Data doesn't agree
Sharp's favorables come in at 21-22 according to PPP. Lingle had 44-51 negative job approval in an October poll and 41-56 in the November exit poll. Obama won HI 72-27 and lost TX 55-44. I think some have what I would like to call "2010-itis" here.

[ Parent ]
Remind me,
did the Democrats help Noriega as much as they helped, say, Merkeley or Hagan? I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't. If that's the case, then his showing is actually kind of impressive.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
No help whatever
We had many a debate here with regard to bang for buck.

[ Parent ]
So then his showing was impressive.
It's even more impressive, I think, considering he was, from what I can tell, strongly pro-choice and fairly open about forcing the government to grant same-sex partners benefits. Yes, it was a Republican year, and he didn't come that close, but he wasn't blown out of the water. It's results like this that make me think the Democrats do have more of a chance in the state, should they invest in it, than people realize.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
No, safe D with Lingle, some here don't realize how unpopular she is......
The 2010 HI-Gov exit poll pegged Lingle's job approval at a horrible 41-56, and a poor 44-51 in a late October Honolulu Star Advertiser poll.

There's this reflexive assumption that Lingle is "strong," when in fact she's acutely weak.

This is aside from the fact that this is a liberal Democratic state in Obama's reelection year.

This seat is safe D no matter who runs for either party.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Lean D with Lingle?
Obama won by forty-five points in 2008. Even McCain only won Wyoming by 32!

[ Parent ]
Lingle won by 28 in her '06 re-election bid
I concede her approval wasn't hot as she left office, but there are plenty of moderates and Democrats who've supported her previously, and in a very Dem-friendly cycle, to boot.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Dave Freudenthal left office quite popular in Wyoming
But I doubt he'd have a prayer of winning a senate seat there, gubernatorial races are simply different from senatorial races (plus, given how many seats the Democrats held in the legislature, Lingle's power was almost nonexistent).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Freudenthal
Compare and contrast. 71-18 job approval yet trails Barrasso 56-36.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


[ Parent ]
One wonders
if Patty Murray has some sort of promise from him that he will jump in if Barrasso is Teabagged by a no-name guy. I'm not sure how far that effort will get, but they are supposedly trying to do it.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
That '06 reelection is worthless in '12......
Those moderates and Dems who voted for her in '06 no longer like her, even in the friendliest Republican year, that's what her final job approvals tell us.  And that means they're not going to vote for her again.

All that is aside from the fact that no Republican can win in Hawaii in Obama's reelection year.  I have to think any smart HI GOPer is writing off the cycle and biding time for '14 for the state party's next serious try at a comeback.

This seat is safe Dem no matter the nominees.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
It's also irrelevant
because a. a lot of voters who will support a Republican for state office won't support one for federal offices, and b. Iwase was a pretty minor candidate. Wikipedia says: "According to filings with the Hawai'i state Campaign Spending Commission, the Iwase campaign had only raised $241,973 as of September 23, 2006. This was in contrast to a record $6.37 million raised by his opponent, Governor Linda Lingle." Sure you're going to win if you're outspending your opponent 30-1.

[ Parent ]
Manchin won by 44 in his reelection bid in 2008.
And won the Senate race by just 10 with still-high approvals.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Now, let's see if my speculation regarding Ed Case pays off
When he scrapped another run at HI-01 out of the blue last year, I speculated that he had worked out a deal with Sen. Inouye, who is basically the George Washington, the Simon Bolivar, and the Vladimir Putin of the Democratic Party of Hawaii, to succeed Sen. Akaka if Akaka retired.

As I expected would be the case (no pun intended) if Case made his case (pun intended) and Inouye said It Was Good, Inouye applied some gentle pressure to nudge Akaka into making this announcement.

And now we see if the field magically clears for a haole whom no one seems to particularly like.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


Case dropped out because he couldn't beat Hanabusa in a primary
Coming in third was a political death sentence for Case and he knew it (it would have been just as true for Hanabusa, btw). I doubt Inouye had to cut any deals with Case for Case to drop out.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
The man reputedly has a whopping great ego
Guess we'll see where the chips fall in the coming weeks.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I just thought of something else, though
If either Rep. Hanabusa or Rep. Hirono vacates her seat to run for Senate, Case could run for House again. Perhaps that was the deal, considering Sen. Inouye's conspicuous exclusion of Case from the list of potential successors to Sen. Akaka...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Unlikely
I doubt that... Colleen Hanabusa, while State Senate President, was determined to run for Governor.  She switched to Congress at Sen. Inouye's urging.  Ed Case dropped out because he would lose.  He endorsed Colleen at the state dem convention to keep future plans possible, not because Senator Inouye struck a deal with him.

[ Parent ]
Wrong Case deal
I'd expect a deal with case would be for him to go after whichever House seat comes open by the incumbent running for the Senate.

No way would there be any kind of deal offering him a path to a Senate seat in exchange for a House one.  That would be backwards.

If Case was smart, he'd have his eyes on the House.


[ Parent ]
Case did the right thing
but there is no way he is "promised" this seat, nor is there any way Inouye could magically deliver the seat to him.  Case simply isn't that popular amongst Hawaii Democrats.  The last election he won was in 2004.

Yes, Inouye is essentially the chairman of the Hawaii Democratic Party, but he can't control everyone.  After all, he couldn't stop Case from primarying Akaka in 2006.

I'm thinking either Hirono or Schatz will be the next Senator.


[ Parent ]
Actually, if Inouye wanted it, he could probably make it happen
Hawaii is a machine state, and Inouye runs the machine.

However, I think it's a moot point, since Inouye doesn't seem to like Case since he tried primarying Inouye's friend.


[ Parent ]
HI
A Republican friend of mine who lives in Hawaii claims Lingle will be declaring shortly and comes armed with 2(!) polls showing her well ahead of the most likely Democrats.  I hope he is either misinformed or messing with me.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Hard to see the socially conservative Lingle...
Converting a Senate seat in the president's home state next year with President Obama on the ballot.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Isn't
Isn't Lingle rumored to be a closet lesbian?

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
A closet lesbian that vetod
Civil Unions last year.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Well, the only
"social conservative" action of Lingle i can remeber is vetoing Civil unions. But substantial number of Democrats in legislature voted against it or at least had serious doubts too. So, it's not so big sin in the yes of the voters, probably...

[ Parent ]
I think your friend is screwing with you
Unless that poll Lingle had was of her family or something.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I can't find anything on this
Therefore, I would not believe it.

[ Parent ]
HI
Yea, I called him and told him its likely BS and he admitted he just heard it from someone else, so false alarm.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
Sounds like someone isn't being quite truthful
I reckon any poll showing Lingle well ahead would be a poll that is bogus.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Yup, especially since Lingle finished her Governorship extremely unpopular......
Not quite Dubya territory, but Lingle's job approvals at the end were in the low 40s in a couple polls, including a horrible 41-56 in the 2010 exit poll.  This in as good a year as Republicans should expect to have, given the national wave and a midterm turnout model.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Likely D
Whoever it is. Even Case agaist Lingle.

[ Parent ]
so given Hawaii's
Fuck-it attitude about district residency and tendency to recycle everybody for every office, are those the same people that would run for Hiorno's seat, or is there anybody else?  (Gosh, that sounds harsh...I like Hawaii...even though I've never been.)

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

I'll miss Akaka
He was clearly slipping a bit mentally and physically, but he really is a good-hearted lovable guy. I had the chance to meet him once, and when I went for the handshake, he went for the hug. He's a good human being in a cesspool of scumbags.

As for replacements, I'll cast my lot with Hirono. I'd love Brian Schatz, but Hirono's a solid, reliably liberal figure. I kind of hope that either Lingle or Djou take the plunge because I highly doubt either will win in an Obama year and their credibility will be smashed for good.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)


Not slipping yet
Senator's not slipping yet.  His hearing's going, but his mental state is A-OK.  If Senator Inouye show Hawaii's might, Senator Akaka surely shows Hawaii's aloha.  I agree, he's beloved and respected by all.

I'm not so hot on Hirono. She doesn't have the best relationship with the rest of the Hawaii delegation.  She's hardly maintained a political organization and has slipped into obscurity.  I'd prefer Hirono over Schatz, but I'd really like Hanabusa to give it a go.

Lingle and Djou have used mainland consultants who know how to fundraise and know how to run modern campaigns, so I don't count them out.  It's not gonna be a cakewalk for Dems if they run.


[ Parent ]
You
Seem to be Hawaiian. Any more local insight for us in mainland

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
Hmm...
Well, he seems to speak a bit slowly and more haltingly compared to other senators.

What makes you think Hirono doesn't have a good relationship with the others? I thought she was a member in good standing of the Inouye machine. But based on your knowledge of Lingle and Djou, it sounds like you might be plugged in to the local scene and you included area code 808 in your scree name. Do you by chance have an association with a previous campaign or office?

And though I don't doubt Lingle and Djou's ability to run a solid campaign, I doubt they can win in an Obama year against a half-way competent candidate. Djou put together a solid campaign against Hanabusa but still lost handily in a GOP year. Lingle managed to win twice as a Republican, which is certainly noteworthy, but she went out with crappy approval ratings like a lot of other governors.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)


[ Parent ]
Slow but steady?
He's an elder statesman to be sure.  And you could put emphasis on the "elder" part if you'd like.  But he's still got it.  His staff would do anything for him, too.  And if you've seem him walk, damn, he walks hella fast.  The man is a force of nature.

Hirono's office just kinda plugs away and doesn't really do much.  No heavy lifting, no big issues.  Her political apparatus is dependent on Senator Inouye.  I just don't see her running and I'm afraid of the campaign she'd run.  They tend to hire local folks who think a field director's job is to set up volunteers to wave signs during rush hour.  I just cringe.

Oh yeah, sorry.  I don't think Lingle or Djou would win, but it'd be a major headache.  The Dem party in Hawaii just isn't capable of running a campaign.  The party itself is incredibly weak and without considerable help from Senator Inouye's district staff, the party would crumble.

Let's just say this race is incredibly personal for me.  Sorry, all I can say.


[ Parent ]
Didn't Hanabusa do the same?
I saw pictures of her waiving and holding signs during rush hour.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Absolutely
You can't get elected in Hawaii without signwaving. Let's people know you're humble.  But a lot of pols in Hawaii ONLY signwave.  Hirono doesn't do much else.  TV, a couple of mailers, some union guys to do lit drops, and that's it.

The idea of targeting likely voters is a foreign concept in Hawaii.  Tools that any mainland campaign would use (Catalist, VAN, NGP, Salsa, etc) is completely new in Hawaii.  Hanabusa was the first candidate ever in Hawaii to use the DNC's Votebuilder and there was tremendous pushback.

If we could Colleen in, she'd be a reliable pragmatic progressive.  She worked well with State Senate GOPers and got things done.  Mufi and Ed Case would be the worst choices.  They're Republicans who became Democrats to get elected.  Brian Schatz and Mazie are good solid Democrats, and I really hope that's not the best we can get.


[ Parent ]
I see a trouble if Hanabusa or Hirono run for senate

Who would replace Hirono or Hanabusa for the US House.

E Case (both seats) and M Hannemann (more likely for HI-01) would the democratic frontrunners for a new open seat. It would be not a trouble?

What would you think about a bid of E Shinseki or J Waihee?


[ Parent ]
Hella fast?
Do people say hella in Hawaii? As a SoCal native I always thought of that as a NorCal thing, but I guess it would kind of make sense if Hawaiians said it too.  

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Nobody
Nobody actually says "hella" in Hawaii.  Lol.  I went to Boston and DC for school and most of my college friends were from the Yay Area.  I can talk/type in Hawaiian Creole but I doubt anyone could understand me.  :P

[ Parent ]
Yay
area? Dear god I don't think even the ghetto kids I went to middle school/high school with ever said that!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
oh i know kids
that do. but i think it's more of an east bay phenomenon

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Patty Murray
At some point do we have to come to terms with her being horrible at this job (Webb, not getting Kaine right away, the other Retirements) or do we generally give the heads of DSCC and DCCC a pass for these kinds of things?

29/D/Male/NY-01

Can't make people run
I really expect Kohl to be next.

[ Parent ]
All the
really old Democratic senators up this cycle seem to be heading for the exits this year! Wouldn't be surprised if Feinstein bolts for the exit as well.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
From your lips to God's ears..


[ Parent ]
Second that
I second that emotion, but it would be more fun if someone primaried DiFi. But I'll take a retirement.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
No Senator has retired yet who has been fundraising, right?


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
I think Jeff Bingaman was fundraising when he retired.
Like $500,000 worth before his announcement.

[ Parent ]
Kohl just gave him self a million bucks
I doubt he would do that if he were to retire.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Now Feingold seems the easy replacement

but looking to the mid term... I hope Kohl retires not still.

[ Parent ]
Keeping his options open
Its more telling that he did not spend anything in the 4th qt. If he had decided to run, he'd be staffing up. He can easily repay his million dollars to himself.  

[ Parent ]
Track records
Honestly, the track records of the DSCC and DCCC in Hawaii have been abysmal anyway.  DCCC screwed up the Case-Hanabusa-Djou race and blew a lot of money.  Today the DS released the wrong press release for Senator Akaka.  I'm not incredibly hopeful if they get involved.

[ Parent ]
Look at how Cornyn started out
Gregg, Voinovich, Bond, then losing Specter and not being able to clear the field for Charlie Crist. 7 pickups later (and that's without Castle, one of his best recruits), he's the toast of the party.

Point is, things change in a hurry, and Murray hasn't lost any seats yet.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Very good point.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
We give them a pass on retirements but not on candidaste recruitment
She doesn't need to get Kaine or any other VA candidate right away. It serves Ds purposes well to have Allen out there alone for awhile getting bad press and dropping in polls. Generic D is actiually up 3 points since Webb's announcement.

Kaine has said he'll make an announcement before March 15. My guess is that he is in already but choosing to defer the public announcement.

Another name to consider in Hawaii: Billy Kenoi. He was a Congressional intern for Inouye, and then on the state senate's professional staff until 2001. After serving as executive assistant to Mayor Harry Kim. He was elected mayor of Hilo in 2008. He seems to get more ink than any other politician in the Big Island News.


[ Parent ]
If you're going to retire from a blue state
you might as well do it during a Presidential election year.  

[ Parent ]
Murray has been telling the senators...
...that if they are going to retire, do it early in the cycle.

Retiring from a blue state that is Obama's birthplace in a presidential year isn't exactly troubling, IMO.


[ Parent ]
DSCC
I know that, but the amount of retirements and the potential for more is.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
Not really
Bingaman was never a lifer (that he didn't retire in 2006 was pretty amazing itself), Virginia was going to be competitive with or without Webb running, and Akaka's 88 years old (and the Hawaii seat is absurdly safe at any rate).

The only retirement that's a problem is Conrad's in North Dakota, and even that was delaying the inevitable in any case.

The real question is going to be about recruitment in these seats (and maybe still salvaging North Dakota is a possibility).

Plus, what makes you think that there is this huge deluge of Democratic retirements coming? The only two I see right now as even possible are Kohl and Feinstein, the former seems unlikely and the latter is in a state we'll win with absolutely no problem.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Exactly.
It's also important to consider that few people are probably aware of what she's doing because not every single thing that happens is news. Most of what's going on, I would think, is stuff that only those close to Murray or some other higher-up at the DSCC would know.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Murray
We need to look at things from the perspectives of these politicians (who all have huge egos, or they wouldn't have gotten to where they are in life) and realize that Murray or any other leader can only do so much.  If she is encouraging the retirees to announce sooner than later, that is huge.  It certainly reduces the power of a senator when they are seen as retiring, but if she can get them to do so for the good of the party, kudos to her.  It takes time to raise money and get a campaign started.  The GOP opponents will certainly be up and running sooner  rather than later, so these early announcements are crucial to keeping these seats in Dem territory.  A lot of these guys have served here for many years and probably want to retire and do other things with their lives, and not be so old as to come to work in the senate in a wheelchair and have their staffs prop them up and poke them to keep them awake.  

From what I know about Webb, no one can tell him what to do.  If he really wants out, how hard would he work to keep his seat if he stayed on longer just to keep everyone happy.  Let him leave and let someone else come in who really wants the job.  As far as Kaine is concerned, I am not impressed by him lately.  When it was commented in the press that Kaine was going to talk to Obama before he decided what to do, I thought, wow, can't he make up his own mind?  Isn't he his own man?  This is not leadership.  Of course, he should talk behind the scenes and get advice from those he trusts, but to do so publicly doesn't inspire respect and confidence.  I bet even Periello's detractors admire his tenacity and drive.  


[ Parent ]
Besides all of that,
despite all of the seats that are up, there are far fewer that will truly be competitive. We hold most of them now, so there's very little to do that goes beyond what a senator normally does. Meanwhile, as the Republican contenders make moves to win their primaries, things naturally seem more...interesting, to say the least. And of course, while I have no doubt things are being done to find candidates, there's really little to be gained by revealing information that is of little value. When they find a candidate to go up against Corker, for instance, they will announce it.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
On another note...
It's hard to imagine that there have been only two open senate seats in Hawaii's history. Akaka's predecessor, Spark Matsunaga, died during incumbency and Akaka was appointed to the seat before winning re-election. The last truly open seat was way back in 1976 when Matsunaga replaced Hiram Fong.

And another piece of interesting trivia: the only senator on non-Asian ancestry in Hawaii's history was Oren Long, who served way back from 1959-63. And with Hirono a very possible replacement, it may be a while yet before we see another Caucasian. Hawaii really does have a one of a kind politics...

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)


well, maybe not that long
How much longer is Inoyue going to serve?  I don't know if this is quite once-in-a-lifetime.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
What Caucasian Dems could run
besides Abercrombie (not happening), Case (I think that ship has sailed), and Schatz?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Sam Slom
Just throwing this out there: What happens if Senate Minority Leader (/snark) jumps in and his seat flips? Not that it would have much of a practical impact, but the thought of legislature being 100% one party again would be interesting. I think there was a long time that Texas had a monolithically Democratic legislature, but when was the last time that one chamber of a state legislature had NO minority party?

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


Cool but...
sometimes the only arguments Republicans have is "vote for us, even though you don't like us, because it's better than having a one-party system."

I've always wondered what it would be like to have a one party legislature, but we're Democrats and we don't need any opposition.  We have plenty of divisions of our own to deal with.  :P  


[ Parent ]
If Hanabusa or Hirono runs
the DCCC should think about recruiting some younger pols. Hanabusa is 59 and she's the youngest member of the delegation. (Would Hanabusa want to wait until 2016, when she's 65, to run for Inouye's seat?) Brian Schatz is the only post-Boomer flavor on Inouye's candidate menu -- Hanneman's 56, Case is 58, Hirono is 63, Abercrombie is 72 (!) -- but would he really ditch LG so quickly? If Abercrombie only serves one term, he's set up pretty well for governor. If Abercrombie runs again, Schatz would be an obvious candidate for Inouye's seat in five years.

Is Blake Oshiro too lefty for HI-01? What about a Rep. Maya Soetoro-Ng? Dynastyyyyy? Just kidding?

25, PA-10


Stanley Chang for HI-01
There's a serious dearth of good politicians who could survive on the mainland.  There's a councilman from East Honolulu named Stanley Chang.  Wonky young lawyer who's ready to go all-in and do what it takes. He beat a longtime community leader to win a city council seat.  A Honolulu City Council seat is bigger than three State Senate districts put together.  I think Stan Chang would be a good pick for HI-01 if Hirono or Hanabusa move up.

[ Parent ]
Very happy about this...
means Hawaii will not lose its seniority all at once.

Let's get the LG in there.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


Schatz
almost ran his charity into the ground. He's better as a LG than legislator. He let grants lapse, misplaced money, and curtailed service for the needy.  He's good politician (which, to be honest, Hirono and Hanabusa are not) but he's not the best policy maker and I don't think he'd make a good Congressman or Senator.

Hanabusa's got the drive.  She can be a good politician when she needs to.  But as a policy maker, she knocks it out of the park.  Reliably progressive.  Ready to fight, but also ready to compromise.  And for a small state like Hawaii, we need a fighter and a do-er, not a grandstander like Schatz.


[ Parent ]
OT, but isn't
"schatz" the German word for "darling"?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
OT, it is
but you're right.

[ Parent ]
I like hearing about pols as policymakers
As well as electioneers...who else do you think is good at getting stuff done among Hawaii pols?  Maybe other potential House contenders?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Chang
He's a freshman City Councilman, but Stanley Chang is exciting to me.  I think the DCCC should seriously consider him, but his youth and inexperience may not be the best draw.

He beat a longtime community activist by a large margin last year.  (Remember, Honolulu City Council districts are 3x as big as State Senate districts.)  He's young, reliably progressive, and can raise a lot of money (especially in a Federal race where there's no contribution limits from out-of-state).  He's a wonk who will do what it takes to win without compromising his beliefs.  He'll go all-in if he ran for HI-01.  He represents a rich, white, conservative part of East Honolulu and he could win a Congressional.


[ Parent ]
How about for HI-02
I mean, not that Chang couldn't probably run there too...

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Harvard
Chang's a better fit for HI-01 and urban Honolulu.  He sounds like he's from and walks like he's from the mainland.  He went to Harvard and he doesn't talk like a local boy.  HI-01 is whiter, more affluent, and has more professional degrees, than HI-02.  Plus he actually lives in HI-01.  Go figure.

[ Parent ]
I meant
Who do you think would be good (as a candidate and as a policymaker) for HI-02, if Hiorno vacates it?  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Patsy Mink's shoes are hard to fill but
Senator Inouye seems to like two of the neighbor island mayors: Carvalho (Kauai) and Kenoi (Big Island).  They could be solid politicians, but they'd lean conservative.  There's a couple state senators I know would be great (raise money, wonks, pragmatic, etc) but they have young children and I doubt they'd run.  I don't thinks there's a good choice that SSPers would like in HI-02.

If HI-02 opened up, Mufi, Gary Hooser (former LG candidate), Brian Schatz, and a few other ever-present pols would probably get a good look.

*Disclaimer, I used to work for a firm that parachuted into Hawaii for the '08 and '10 elections to help these three.


[ Parent ]
I hate to make race an issue
but do we really need the already lily-white Senate to become even more white when Hawaii is perfectly capable of electing a minority to the Senate? Schatz could always run for whichever House seat gets vacated.

[ Parent ]
And with Hirono or Hanabusa
we'd have a woman person of color, too!

[ Parent ]
Larry Sabato:
http://twitter.com/LarrySabato...

Sen.Akaka(D-HI) retires. Obama's home state reelection margin in '12 nearly guarantees D win. Wrong yr for Linda Lingle(R) to run.

Nothing to see here... carry on...


Along the same lines
fivethirtyeight Nate Silver
I don't think Republicans can win Hawaii unless Martha Coakley declares residence there.

http://twitter.com/#!/fivethir...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


[ Parent ]
Haha
I'm imagining Coakley on a grand failure tour of states Obama lived in.  Next up: Losing to Brownback in 2014, then to Kirk in 2016...whenever Schumer retires...  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Losing to Tom Campbell in 2012!
Obama studied at Occidental College in L.A. 1979-1981.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Well I was imagining her losing to Lingle or whoever
For Akaka's seat in 2012...ooh she could do both with the jungle primary in CA!  If anyone can do it, she can.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Somewhere in there she can lose to Michelle Rhee for DC Mayor
Or maybe to Brownback again, also for DC Mayor...

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Oh Nate Silver
Such a roguish imp, that Nate Silver.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Sabato and Silver are right, and I replied to their tweets myself that...
...Lingle's job approvals were terrible at the end of her Governorship, putting a further nail in her political coffin.

This seat is safe D, period, regardless of the nominees...yes, even if Ed Case wins the primary.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Tammy Duckworth
Is there any merit here? She did go to high school there, and it'd be awesome to have another veteran in Congress.

22, male, VA-10

Glad to see this happening
Couldn't be a better year for Democrats to hold, and you just shouldn't still be a Senator at 86.

Hirono would be an excellent choice.  


Playing with some numbers...
D - 43
I - 36
R - 21

My hunch is Lingle's most likely scenario is something like...

Lingle - 19/54/94 = 47%
Democrat - 81/46/6 = 53%

For Lingle to win, she needs something more like...

Lingle - 23/57/97 = 51%
Democrat - 77/43/3 = 49%

All of this, against a backdrop of Obama, who'll probably win with...

Obama - 94/64/16 = 66%
Republican - 6/36/84 = 34%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Again, Lingle is weak and not capable of doing that well......
She finished her Governorship with job approvals in the low 40s, including a dismal 41-56 in the 2010 exit poll.

She's not going to do better than that as a GOP Senate nominee the very next cycle in Obama's reelection year.

Any Democrat will beat any Republican handily in this one next year, easily by double-digits.  Even Case vs. Lingle goes to Case by at least 10, probably closer to 15 or 20.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Yup, I expect President Obama to get 75% in HI in '12
If it's Case/Lingle for HI-Sen it might be a 65/35 race.

If I were the HI R party, I might choose Dylan Nonaka, whose young enough to survive a drubbing. He might even do better than Lingle against a Haole D.


[ Parent ]
Your advice to HI Rs is smart......
From their perspective, the best they can do is introduce a fresh young face who is a good campaigner and presents a positive image.  Gotta be somebody who never says a bad word about Obama or the Democratic Party generally, but just touts his/her own vision.  And gotta be well-spoken and thoughtful.  Nonwhite and/or female is crucial--if Republicans can't offer a decent nonwhite candidate even in Hawaii, that looks really bad.

Defeat next year is certain, but earn some name rec and goodwill from voters for a more winnable fight later.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
By the way, I was speaking generically, not of Nonaka......
I've never heard of Dylan Nonaka and my description of who the HI Rs should nominate wasn't meant to be a description of him.  I was talking more broadly of what qualities they need in a nominee.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Understood, Nonaka was prominent in the Djou campaign
and I keep seeing his name in HI press releases. So he doesn't meet your criteria per se.

The ideal R campaign in HI would be based on someone who says "he supports the President when he's right". Nonaka is not that candidate.

But my gut is that Nonaka has potential 10 or so years down the line, in a post-Tea Party fueled era -- he's only 29 now.


[ Parent ]
Lynn Finnegan
2010 Lt. Gov nominee is young and she's not white. Also, House Minority Leader Kymberly Pine.

[ Parent ]
Charles Djou would have fit the bill, had he not thrown his little tantrum earlier this year.


[ Parent ]
That's smart.
I'd actually give the same advice to Democrats in a lot of these Southern states where their political situations seem rather hopeless now, except that I'd recommend trying to tailor it a little more specifically. I'm not recommending pandering in any significant sense, but if the suburbs are a killing field for Tennessee Democrats, it might make sense to perk up the ears of suburban voters with specific phrases in regards to education policy or something. The worst thing that will happen is that they will lose, but that's what is expected in a lot of these places. Hopefully, though, a new coalition can start to form, even just barely.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Hirono vs. Hanabusa
Hirono will be 64 years old this year, Hanabusa will be 60 years old.  I guess that is relatively young by Hawaiian standards.  Either one could serve 4 terms in the US Senate (seniority in the Senate still has its perks) and retire at age 84 or 88.  It would be nice to see another woman in the US Senate, it is still too white male dominated ( I say this as a white male).

I agree as a mostly white gay man.
I have a feeling Hirono will run this time and Hanabusa in 2016.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Also, don't forget
Women live longer than men, and people of Japanese ancestry have incredible longevity. With the terms Hawaii gives to its Senators, I wouldn't be shocked if Hirono became the second Senator to reach 100. Why not, if she can still do it?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Not just Japanese ancestry
I mean, look at Akaka. There's something in the water down there. Probably like Okinawa.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
It's probably the Hawaiian lifestyle.
Less stress perhaps then on the mainland.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I wish I could move there!


My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Closely related to the "Happiness" by CD poll I posted on the weekend thread
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03...

Discovered: The Happiest Man in America

Gallup's answer: he's a tall, Asian-American, observant Jew who is at least 65 and married, has children, lives in Hawaii, runs his own business and has a household income of more than $120,000 a year.

Didn't Inouye almost convert to Judaism?


[ Parent ]
Not so worried about Case anymore
His third place finish in the congressional special election was fairly embarrassing for him.  Remember that Hanabusa previously ran for Congress against Case in 2002, and got like 7% to Case's 50% in a multi-candidate primary.

I would be more worried about Mufi Hannemann trying to get into the Senate, he would be a truly terrible Senator and the state could do much better.

Most of the attention will probably be on Mazie Hirono (who has also beaten Case already), or on Brian Schatz.  Although I suppose it wouldn't be the weirdest thing if Hanabusa ran.

As for Lingle...pfft.  She took a massive hit to her popularity in her final two years as governor, pissed off a ton of people with her handling of teacher furloughs, civil unions, and other issues.  Add that to the fact that Obama should be winning this state by 50 points again, and you're looking at a situation where it's just plain unwinnable by a Republican.



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