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SSP Daily Digest: 3/2

by: DavidNYC

Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 8:11 AM EST


FL-Sen: A group of Holocaust survivors - now very elderly, of course - plan to protest Sen. Bill Nelson's fundraiser with Barack Obama this week. The survivors say that Nelson promised to push legislation which would allow them to directly sue insurance companies who have withheld payments on life insurance policies sold before World War II. Nelson claims he only promised to hold a hearing on such a bill (which has been introduced in the House in the past).

MA-Sen: I really have to believe Deval Patrick just shot his mouth off in that National Journal interview, and has probably earned himself a few glares from would-be Democratic challengers to Sen. Scott Brown the next time they see him. Now Alan Khazei, whom Patrick said was "for sure" in the race, is - like Newton Mayor Setti Warren - saying that he's merely "looking at it carefully" but hasn't made a decision yet. Meanwhile, Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll tells the Boston Phoenix that she is at least several weeks away from a decision, and that a Warren entry wouldn't impact her.

And speaking of another Warren, some top Republicans have been saying kinder things about Elizabeth Warren's chances of becoming the permanent director of the Consumer Financial Protection Board. Of course, House Financial Services chair Spencer Bachus doesn't get a vote, but he thinks that "the Senate may approve" a Warren nomination (if one were to be made). If this came to pass, it would almost certainly remove Warren from any possibility of running for the senate.

ND-Sen, ND-AL:  Freshman Rep. Rick Berg hasn't ruled out a run for Kent Conrad's now-open senate seat, and Eric Cantor seems to think he might make the leap. The House's no. 2 Republican said of Berg: " "I'm trying to convince him to make sure he stays in the House right now."

NM-Sen: From the horse's mouth - which is where I prefer to get my news: Dem state Auditor Hector Balderas confirmed reports that he is looking at Jeff Bingaman's open senate seat, saying he's been talking to the DSCC and is "strongly considering entering" the race.

VA-Sen: Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart (god that is a mouthful) sounds like he's dialing himself out of any possible senate run. He says he's going to seek re-election to his current post this fall, and will "possibly" make a decision on whether to seek Jim Webb's open seat "early next year." He's seriously going to enter a competitive primary against Felix Allen no earlier than January of 2012? Shah.

NC-Gov: Tom Jensen tells me something I always love to hear: an establishment Republican might have tea-related problems. In particular, PPP's latest poll has 43% of GOPers saying they'd prefer someone more conservative than former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, while 29% firmly support him. Of course, I think probably 20% of Republicans would say they want someone more conservative than Republican Jesus. But McCrory does have something of a libruhl track record (like I've said, it's hard to be a super-conservative mayor), including support for socialist, freedom-destroying light rail for his hometown. Tom points out that McCrory won his 2008 primary with less than 50% of the vote "against a weak field" - but this time around, no one's really emerged from the woodwork to challenge him. Yet.

WI-Gov: Tom also has the rest of the goods on PPP's WI-Gov poll, which consistently shows small pro-labor margins on a variety of unions vs. Walker questions (and larger margins on questions of general collective bargaining rights). On the question of recall, it's an exact 48-48 split.

AZ-06: We missed the news a couple of weeks ago that former GOP state senate majority leader Chuck Gray said he was entering the race to succeed Jeff Flake (who of course is running to succeed Jon Kyl). One other Republican name considering the race is the current Speaker of the state House, Kirk Adams.

CA-36: AFSCME's California political arm, called "California PEOPLE," is endorsing Janice Hahn, making them the latest in a string of labor unions to do so. Meanwhile, Debra Bowen tweeted that she could fit into her daughter's jeans.

IL-01: Roll Call takes a detailed look at the personal finances of Rep. Bobby Rush, who has been the defendant in nearly two dozen mostly debt-related lawsuits since the 1980s - and who has somewhat questionably left off all of these cases and debts from the financial disclosure forms he's obligated to file as a member of Congress. While this isn't the first time the media has examined Rush's finances, this strikes me as the sort of thing that could make the incumbent vulnerable to a primary challenge, especially since his district will have to take on a bunch of new territory to compensate for population loss.

NY-10: The New York Observer offers an interesting profile of Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries, who hasn't ruled out a primary challenge to Rep. Ed Towns (D), and who apparently has been ramping up his political activity of late.

OR-01: Steny Hoyer (still the no. 2 Dem in the House) says it's "premature" to talk about a David Wu resignation. But surely he wants this problem to go away, right? Also of note, The Hill observes that Wu only had $7,500 in campaign cash at the start of the year, versus $61K in debt. Can't imagine he's finding a lot of willing donors these days.

PA-04: PA state Dem chair Jim Burn says he thinks Rep. Jason Altmire could face a primary challenge from the left next year, but admits he hasn't heard of any actual, you know, names being circulated. Anyhow, who even knows what this district will look like.

Las Vegas Mayor: Jon Ralston has obtained a poll taken for a group of realtors showing Carolyn Goodman (I) at 30%, Larry Brown (D) at 17%, and Chris Giuchigliani (D) at 11%, with other candidates in the single digits. Note that this poll asked a TON of issue-y questions before finally getting to the horserace in Q15. Also, as Ralston pointed out on the Tweeter, this poll was taken a few weeks ago, before the TV air wars were joined.

Census: Couple of cool census-related mapping widgets. The Journal Star of Nebraska lets you drill down to see population change by county for each state where data's been released so far. The Chicago Tribune offers a Google Maps-based interface which lets you drill down to see individual census blocks across the entire state of Illinois.

Crossroads: Announcing fundraising goals is easy, which is why I usually don't remark on them. But when Crossroads GPS/American Crossroads, the satanic spawn of Karl Rove, says it plans to raise $120 million to destroy America, I pay attention - and I worry, because they probably really, really mean it.

Votes: There've been a couple of interesting votes with Republican outliers in the House recently. One was the stopgap spending bill that cut $4 billion in spending over the next two weeks; six Republicans defected on that one, including freshman teabagger Justin Amash, Michele Bachmann, and a few other true believers. (Walter Jones was probably the exception there.) On the flipside, seven GOPers voted against denying funding for Planned Parenthood - click the link for the list.

On the same topic, Politico has an interesting-looking vote study out on the GOP freshman, seeing how often they vote together as a group. Unfortunately, as per usual with the likes of Politico and similar organizations, I can't see that they've posted the full list anywhere - they just offer a few tidbits. (Why go to all that trouble if you don't even want to share all your numbers?) Anyhow, the aforementioned Justin Amash, who I guess really wants to take teabagging to new heights, has voted against his class more often than anyone else, 30% of the time. But the next three guys on the list are all semi-moderate New Yorkers - Chris Gibson, Mike Grimm, and Richard Hanna.

WATN?: Sometimes I just need to channel my inner Holden Caulfield and declare: what a phony. After flatly saying the one thing he wouldn't be doing after retiring from the senate was lobbying, ex-Sen. Chris Dodd just took a job as... a lobbyist, for everyone's second-favorite intellectual property goliath, the MPAA. (I'm gonna assume the RIAA is still first.) Anyhow, check out the amusing Twitter hashtag #ChrisDoddMovies for some lulz.

Polltopia: Go tell PPP where to poll. Don't let the Paultards win!

Redistricting: A Columbia Law School class is trying to create "an internet depository for nonpartisan congressional maps for the entire country." I thought the SSP diaries section already was one! Anyhow, click the link if you are interested in submitting your work.

NJ-12: I have seen the last, best hope of mankind, and his name is Rush Holt. In a major blow against Skynet Watson, the rocket scientist-turned-congressman defeated the Jeopardy-playing robot by a score of $8,600 to $6,200. The losing contestant, Rep. Jim Himes, was seen being turned into fuel to power the Matrix.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/2
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Maine, people...
Let's all trundle over to PPP and vote for Maine. I'm anxious to see what numbers Rep. Michaud posts against Lord Andrew Ian Dodge.

Secy. Bowen really, really doesn't seem to be taking that special election very seriously, does she? Right now, I expect Hahn will be California's newest congresswoman when all is said and done.

When one Tea Party group closes a door (VA-Sen), another Tea Party group opens a window (NC-Gov). Huzzah.

I'm curious as to whether Mayor Driscoll is trying to raise her profile in preparation for a congressional run (depending on redistricting) or whether she actually thinks she could be the next senator from Massachusetts. She certainly doesn't seem as miffed about being talked up for the job as Khazei.

And Reps. Rush and Wu should really just take a hike already.

Congratulations, though, to Rep. Rush Holt! of New Jersey, a true blue geek. We're proud of you. Rush Holt!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


I don't get Bowen's angle
I might not understand how she became quite as revered as she is, but she's obv. a smart and successful pol.  So what's going on?  Does she see this as a low-risk/high-reward freebie?  Is she working and campaigning hard, in a way behind the scenes even to us?  Is she just trying to raise a bit of money for a Fed race (and raise her profile, uh, despite not seeming to have a full campaign site last time I checked)?  Does she plan on coasting to the top two on name rec. and then blasing Hahn, Sestak-style, one week before the runoff election?  What's going on?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
I went with New Hampshire, though I'm down with CT, HI or ME, too
I'm just amazed New Hampshire hasn't been polled over there in forever.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I actually voted Mississippi
I want to see if that Gallup poll showing Obama with a +1 approval rating there is legit. It seems completely unbelievable to me, but hey, not many people have polled there, so it could be true for some strange reason.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
I voted for Mississippi, too.
It was a toss up between that and Missouri.

If he's up at all in Mississippi, could it be because his approval rating amongst whites has gone up? And if so, what does that mean for 2012?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
What are you referring to here?
When one Tea Party group closes a door (VA-Sen), another Tea Party group opens a window (NC-Gov). Huzzah.

[ Parent ]
I think that Reps
Polis, Hayworth, and Cassidy also lost to Watson and Holt.  As a CT-04 "native" (technically I was born in Lowey's district) I guess I am proud that Himes was asked to participate.  I wonder how they picked those 5?  A Jeopardy champion, a Rhodes Scholar, a Princeton Internet gazillionaire, Hayworth went to two Ivy League schools...who else could they have picked?  Maybe they should do a Senate edition...

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

I've met Himes yesterday.
Really nice guy, really nice staff, and very knowledgeable on the issues.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
I've met Himes
Back in 2008...he was walking the district.  I told him I was in a math Ph.D. program and joked as to its irrelevance to public policy.  He said I could work for the NSA.  I was like, didn't you denounce them yesterday?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Justin Amash
According to that piece on the Republican freshmen he's voted "present" several times. Does anyone know if he's got some set pattern (or reasoning) behind that?

don't know
From what I've seen his voting record seems to be closer to Ron Paul than to anyone else in the House.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
True
Although he pissed off some libertarians at a recent event at CPAC when he said that there are times where he will disagree with Ron Paul.


19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

[ Parent ]
Are you being sarcastic?
Because if that statement actually angered anyone, that boarders on deification.  No one is right 100% of the time.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Personality cults are alive and well in American politics


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
But what if you're wrong about this?
What then?!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I'm not wrong
So don't worry about it

[ Parent ]
During the campaign
He promised to vote present on any bill that he did not read fully.  

[ Parent ]
Aren't most major bills insanely complex and lengthy
I mean there's no way he could read the annual budget bill, right?  I know each year when the state budget passes its like 30,000 pages long, I can't imagine how bad the Fed budget must be in that regard.

[ Parent ]
Exactly
"Read the bill" is one of those faux-populist sounding things that makes it sound like you're more informed and in touch -- but I don't think really means anything.  But it can be good politics.

[ Parent ]
bills
Bills are written in code that isn't intended to be understandable to the average person. It's intended to have a very precise meaning to specially trained lawyers. Basically, it's programming language. But bills also come with summaries written by staff people that are in English as opposed to legalese. It would be more realistic for a lawmaker to promise to read the official summary of every bill, and to assign one of their own staff people to read the bill word for word and make their own notes.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
What a wretched life for those staffers
By the time they finished reading the annual budget, they'd be grandparents.

[ Parent ]
budget
I assume they do something like this already, but split the bigger bills up among a bunch of their own and/or other members' staffers.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Correct
It is a genuinely stupid thing that looks good on paper. Oh yes lets make people read three thousand pages of legislation every single day, I'm sure that will work well. It perhaps one of the stupidest things brought to you by the tea party.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
"Three thousand pages... of stupidest things... brought to you by the tea party"
I love pull quotes!

I wouldn't read either, for the record.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
You
could work for Andrew Breitbart (SP?).  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Nope
This idea is too good, I'm going to go write a book about three thousand stupid ideas the Tea Party came up with. I'll probably have to make some stuff up, but that's never stopped me before.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Transparency Issues
He has three reasons for why he votes present, as he has explained in the past:

1) Not enough time given to read the bill or amendment. I remember Amash posting on Facebook last year about staying up all night studying bills on the docket. He is against last minute amendments and bills or those which do not permit debate. Yes, he wouldn't vote for it if time was not given to read it.

2) Procedural issues, which ties into the above.

3) Conflicts of interest, which he says has not come up yet.

He explains every single one of his votes on his Facebook page if anybody is interested.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04


[ Parent ]
Sounds like
he's in the wrong profession.

[ Parent ]
Notorious
He was notorious in the Michigan state house for voting "present" and he explained all of his votes on his Facebook account.  That seemed to get him a lot of kudos as a "rising star"; I just thought it was selfish dereliction.

[ Parent ]
Bowen was and may still be anticipating a cakewalk
If she keeps up the do nothing campaign style, Hahn will be the strong favorite.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

She ain't
earning the support of the netroots groups like DFA if she tweets that she can fit in someone's jeans.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Not really...
If anything, Marcy Winograd will be more of a sticky situation among the DFA/PDA crowd. Again, all she may need is 5% to knock Bowen out of the CA-36 runoff and hand the seat over to Hahn.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Not necessarily...
Take a look at what she said on February 18. Debra Bowen is a big grassroots believer, and she's really trying to bank on all the goodwill she's built among them, especially in Venice and the South Bay beach cities. However, it is true that unions matter in LA County, and all they need to do is activate their troops to carry Janice Hahn to victory. IMHO neither one of them can take this election for granted.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Do the grassroots just show up for their own?
Or do they have to be worked, organized, etc?  And if the latter, is Bowen neglecting that work, or is she doing it and we don't notice?  (I find it hard to believe that even the most savvy against-the-conventional-wisdom, under-the-radar campaign wouldn't have an issues page up or anything.)

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Heh. "Being Organized" in California...
Means something far different from organized, disciplined Democratic campaigns in Nevada and elsewhere. From what I understand, Debra Bowen is getting quite a bit of netroots/grassroots support. But as I said earlier, her big obstacle is getting past the hurdles that are the LA unions and the CDP establishment heavy hitters (Feinstein, Perez, Villaraigosa, etc.). If progressive grassroots/netroots support were enough to win, Marcy Winograd would have defeated Jane Harman in the CA-36 primary last year. Debra Bowen will definitely need to expand her base beyond just them to win.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Even if that is her strategy, her campaign doesn't seem to be running at full steam yet
It just appears to me that Hahn is outpacing Bowen and Bowen isn't doing much to keep up.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
ND-Sen: What if Eric Cantor convinces Rick Berg
to stay in the House?

Who else on the R side interested in the seat? Sure they have a deep bench there, given their current dominance of statewide offices.

But without Berg, I think ND-Sen moves from likely to lean R.


I believe the AG is interested
Wayne Stenehjem, who's been elected statewide 3 times. Then again, after last year's series of fails by AG's (Coakley, McMaster, Conway, Cox, Edmondson, Goddard), that's not exactly a silver bullet.

Now that I think of it, there was a group of successful AG's last year: Brown, Cuomo, Ayotte, Blumenthal, Corbett.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
At first glance, the new poll...
Looks quite good for Goodman. But when one looks closer, one can see Carolyn Goodman can't take this election for granted. Her name ID is quite strong, but her support is fairly soft. And if the electorate ends up skewing as older and conservative as SGS expects it to be, then that could spell trouble for Goodman... And for Chris Giunchigliani as well. Victor Chaltiel's only hope of making the runoff is motivating teabaggers to flock to the polls, and Larry Brown's best shot at maintaining his position to make the runoff is to run up the margins in his Summerlin base.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Btw, I'm working on a Nevada map...
A DRA map that's actually done, but I still need to tabulate the partisan numbers for two more districts. I'm hoping to have it up here this weekend.

In case you're curious, here's a sneak peek:

- There are two majority-minority districts, one of them having a Latin@ plurality.

- Dean Heller will remain safe should he decide to stay in The House, but NV-02 may cause serious heartburn for the Nevada GOP should primary voters take "the wrong Angle".

- NV-04 may just get a wild primary ride after all, as all four leading rumored Democratic candidates are drawn into this district... But Steven Horsford won't be one of them. (But can he win the primary in his own new district?)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Huckabee leads comfortably in primary poll of 11 southern states
http://www.miamiherald.com/201...

Huckabee - 22%
Gingrich - 13%
Palin - 9%
Romney - 7%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


I wonder if this is making Huckabee...
Reconsider. Two months ago, it looked fairly certain he wouldn't run. I wonder if these poll numbers are making him think he actually has a chance at winning.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Doesn't tell us or him
Anything we didn't already know. He is strong in the south. Big deal. he did well down there even after McCain had secured the nomination last time. Huckabee's problem is and always has been financial and how that stops him competing in the other places you need to do well to be nominated.

[ Parent ]
That is true...
And that's why I had thought he wouldn't run. Why give up a cushy job at Fox to embark on another losing campaign that lacks the resources sorely needed to win the big states? Since he likely can't win New Hampshire, Huckabee will have to find a way to sustain momentum after Iowa if he's serious about running again... Or just give up the dream and make it easier for Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich to get the nomination.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Honestly I could see all 3 not running
Gingrich has to be the most likely, but all 3 give up too much $$$ and a cushy life to actually run.  

I'm almost wondering if 2012 will see a void of the social conservative national firebrands and see one of less well known names come to the forefront, or one of the more well known names tack hard right, or both.


[ Parent ]
Oh Newt is in no doubt there


[ Parent ]
I wonder what he's doing though
Maybe I'm crazy, but I think there'd be a big first-mover-advantage to Newt actually declaring ahead of many of the "undecided" candidates.  Not that money or name rec is an issue for him, but why not just start going for it immediately.  

[ Parent ]
Huckabee's support
You hit the nail on the head with huckabee I think.  he has strong support in the South but has and will have $$$ problems.  

It makes me think that Huckabee appeals to a less-monied religious conservative than others appeal to.  one would think he'd have similar Southern bases to some other Christian conservatives who have beeter financial capabilities.  

After reading his most recent rant on the birther situation yesterday, I'm inclined to think his toe is mroe in the water than i thought it was previously.  He was obviously trying to rile up support from birthers but also saying something like he was concerned about the issue but didn't believe it because if true HRC would have found it during the campaing.  It was an odd diatribe where he seemed to be trying to play 3 sides of the same coin (which only has 2 sides).

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_...

Of course his stepping back today from these comments just muddies the waters further, I don't wuite get what's going on with hit to be honest.


[ Parent ]
Still have to play to the base
Even to sustain his career as a pundit. Fox have suspended Newt and Santorum. Makes me think Huck isn't serious. But never say never.

[ Parent ]
Agree
It just seemed like he was playing to everyone.  

Fueling the birthers with the "Kenya upbringing" and weird word about Obama's birth and what Huck "already knows".  

Semi-praising the Hillary Clinton's fact-finding abilities and campaign ops with his "if there was something truthful, it would have come out during the primary" issue (NOTE: he doesn't seem to say anything about McCain's people being able to find it or use it...odd)

Backing off it saying he believes Obama was born in hawai'i and is legally elected plays to moderates I guess.

Just all over the map


[ Parent ]
Not to defend him
But maybe it is just his opinion.

[ Parent ]
I'd actually like that
I hold huckabee in higher esteem than abotu 99.99% of people on this site, which is probably why I find the totality of his statements the last 36 hours somewhat perplexing.  

He's always seemed in the past to say what he means and mean what he says IMHO.


[ Parent ]
At least Huckabee pushes for
what he believes to be working class values (even if his policies aren't consistent with such).

Anyone who is pro-fundie and POs the Club for Growth is interesting in this environment. (I'm the other one of the .01% of the people here who hold Huckabee in relatively high esteem.)


[ Parent ]
Yet whenever I try to
Give him the benefit of the doubt he resorts to typical Republican false equivalencies like Obama talking about 57 jurisdictions of the nominatating process. I continue to say he is less bad than the others which is basically like saying Charles Manson is a great guy because he didn't actually kill anyone. What can I say I'm a partisan rather than a idealogue.

[ Parent ]
"Best of the rest" is probably better
The comparison to convicted murderers is probably not a very good analogy, ideology or not.

[ Parent ]
I'm preparing myself for the move
Gotta practice the hyperbole!

[ Parent ]
You are ready :-)
Impeach Churchill!

[ Parent ]
To me, it's just the common R language
even when its false, it's how they communicate with each other. Some of it even permeates RRH, but on a relatively mild level (compared to other right wing sites).

I think Huckabee deserves study, as I think he has the key for how wedge issues can be developed between fundies and CfG types.


[ Parent ]
He'll completely lose me
If he starts with the teleprompter crap. Remember this is also the guy who joked about Obama being shot for goodness sake.

[ Parent ]
Shibboleths
As has been discussed around the internet recently, a lot of these things are right wing shibboleths--saying you believe them shows you're in the tribe.

The strange thing is that the right, or at least some members thereof, actually seem to believe that the shibboleths are effective general election talking points.  I guess this stuff happened back during Clinton's time too--the impeachment was a way-toned-down expression the right wing belief that Clinton was a lunatic crook.  Didn't work out too great for them back then, though...

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.


[ Parent ]
Huckabee also leads Iowa focus group results.
Iowa GOP Focus Group Results

Beyond their less than positive views about Palin and Romney, this conservative focus group offered some additional thoughts on the 2012 field:

   -Despite numerous visits to Iowa, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is not connecting with voters so far. Two of the attendees who have seen Pawlenty speak more than once feel he lacks the charisma necessary to win.

   -Rick Santorum stands little chance of emerging victorious. "He is the Sam Brownback of the 2012 election," said one attendee. "He will be everywhere, all over Iowa, visiting 300 times, and wind up having 12 people in Decatur County caucus for him."



[ Parent ]
Same thing
He won Iowa last time and went nowhere. He is DOA in NV, the blue states and probably most of the swing states outside the south.

[ Parent ]
That's fascinating about Pawlenty and Santorum, but not surprising at all
And kudos to the religious right not falling for Santorum's schtick. The man makes Gingrich look relevant.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Santorum is about as exciting as a wet paper bag.
How he managed to win statewide in PA is an absolute mystery, but the only group that cares about him are Sedevacantist Catholics, and they are few and far between.

[ Parent ]
That's
easy to explain, 1994 and his opponent in 2000 was beyond hopeless.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Santorum wishes he could be Brownback
I don't even see him as that strong....

[ Parent ]
VA-Pres: Obama at 48/45 approval, up 6, 8, 12, 19 over Mitt, Huck, Newt, Palin
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

This definitely gives me pause over Huckabee's supposed leg-up over Romney in the south. Most of the polls I've seen lately seem to hint at Huckabee performing McCain numbers and Romney performing just a tad better. Gingrich is in Dukakis territory and Palin in Goldwater.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Perhaps because VA is becoming more north east?
Huckabee's favorables are better mind you but he does worse vis a vis the president. I don't think it is clear which of them is stronger actually. Romney polls better in more head to heads I think. Particularly in blue and purple states.

[ Parent ]
A could comparison would be FL, GA NC and maybe TX
the first 3 cause they are the only relevant southern states unless you count Missouri as a southern state. Texas to see if the dems are making any headway with the changing demographics and to test the "huckabee southern strength".

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
internals
The sample skewed old relative to the 08 turnout but it didn't appear to skew red. The respondents said that they went 50-44 for Obama in 08, when his actual margin was 53-47.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
That'll happen
I imagine we'll see that in about 105% of polls this year (with a 5% moE)

[ Parent ]
Sure
Which is why I try just to trust the toplines unless there is something way off in the crosstabs.

[ Parent ]
Of course I always wonder
If polling w/r/t comparing to 2008 is actually a bad model.  Could it be the blacks that respond to polls are for some reason more likely to vote GOP?  

I have no idea what the profile of that voter would be always just curious, since certain subsets of the population might be less likely to respond to polls (and in the cases of cell phones) to even get polled.

I enjoy the crosstabs as I think if there are definitive issues you can really learn something.  Like you though, they don't mean much without really big gaps vs. expectations or very weird results.


[ Parent ]
Read what Mark Mellman said after this last election.
When asked by journalists why their public polls got the Nevada Senate race so wrong while his numbers were right on the money, he explained how most public pollsters were wrong to exclude everyone they thought weren't "likely" to vote.

If there's a subset of potential voters that are 20% likely to vote, then there's a very good chance about 20% of them will vote. But instead, all of them were excluded from "likely voter models" by everyone from CNN to Razzy to PPP. And when this is compounded by these most of these public pollsters excluding cell phones, that just made their numbers even more out of touch with the reality on the ground. That's why everyone from CNN to Razzy to PPP predicted Sharron Angle would be our next Senator on Election Day, only for the DC pundits to be shocked by not just Harry Reid winning, but also by his final 5.6% margin of victory.

So yes, we may again be seeing public pollsters getting it wrong because their "likely voter models" are too restrictive and they're still not including cell phones in their data gathering.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I'm still not sure how Angle was predicted to win
Sometimes you have to look at the numbers and just throw them away with common sense.  I liken it to my job, sitting around running spreadsheets on the companies I work for and trying to model and predict things.  

Its always fun when you run the numbers and the results don't make sense but you still have to provide them.  I guess in what i do I have the luxury of just not presenting the stuff that doesn't make sense. pollsters would probably be pilloried for surpressing their results.

I guess polling will evolve to the point of "fractional respondents" where they try to get voter turnout mimiced in polling results.  It'll say "we did a poll of 400 likely voters and 250 unlikely voters converted to 50 likely voters for a total of 450 equivalent voters".  

That will be fun to disect...


[ Parent ]
"Sometimes you have to look at the numbers and just throw them away with common sense"
Governor Rick Scott.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
I'm sure there's a joke there
But I don't FL close enough to get it :-\

[ Parent ]
common sense
would say a criminal shouldn't be elected governor in a swing state..or any state

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
exactly sometimes both the numbers and common sense
are wrong hah.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
2008
One thing I'm sure of is African Americans turning out at comparable levels. There is a pundit assumption that Obama won't be able to recreate the excitement of voting for him first time around. With some demographics that may be true. The economy will determine that. But AA voters will be there for the president again no doubt about it. Look at the PPP/Kos poll. We heard all about the enthusiasm gap last year ad nauseum right? Who is most excited about the presidential election? Blacks, by about five points more than other subgroups.

[ Parent ]
No evidence to back this up but...
how could AA voters sit by passively as the first AA President is humiliatingly voted out after one term?

Not going to happen.  If the race is close, AA totals will be higher than 2008.  If it is a wipeout, AA totals may go down a bit, but it won't be enough to matter.


[ Parent ]
The 19-point spread over Palin...
Just makes me laugh.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Yes
But she leads in "Real Virginia".

[ Parent ]
Ha


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I'd love to see some polling of the Dakotas, Montana...
Nebraska, Arizona, Texas, West Virginia...

Could Palin win any state besides Utah and Oklahoma?


[ Parent ]
dukakis
and mccain actually got the same share of the 2 party vote

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
A sign perhaps
With regard to exactly who is serious about running and who isn't.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...


Rep John Garamendi is apparently taking questions on reddit right now
http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/c...  Do you think this sort of thing will become more prominent in the coming years?  I know twitter kinda blew up for representatives, but actually going on a site like reddit, where people are more interested in news and things of that sort is a little different than sending out updates into the ether that is twitter.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Looks
like John Garamendi is settling in nicely in the house. Hopefully he stays there for the foreseeable future which I think he will.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Me too.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Me three
No more grass is greener antsy feet, just be a good man.

[ Parent ]
...
I hate to point out that the Journal Star got that widget from the census bureau... but I have to: http://2010.census.gov/2010cen...

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

ohio libertarians and conservatives looking to...
Drew Carey to run against Brown.  It will be hard to explain him having a civil union to Mr. Wick in the primary though.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


For all the conservative whining over...
"The Hollywood Liberal Elite", they certainly do love them some celebrity politicians! Ronald Reagan, Fred Thompson, the guy from "The Love Boat", Arnold Schwarzenegger... And the list goes on and on! And now they want Drew Carey to run in Ohio?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I feel you are dsicriminating against the "Love Boat"
by not knowing Fred grandy's name.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F...

I believe one of the rules of this site is "thou shalt not forget names of actors on the Love Boat"...


[ Parent ]
Heh. As you can see...
I never watched "The Love Boat" as a kid. However I did watch "Maude" on TV Land, so I must have caught him there.

Jeez, why can't we change that rule of the site to "Thou Shalt Not Forget the Names of Actors on 'Sex And The City'"? ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I think many of us
Would like to forget the names of the actors on that show :-)

[ Parent ]
Never!
No matter how horrifyingly bad the movies are, I'll forever love Sarah Jessica Parker, Cynthia Nixon, Kristin Davis, Kim Cattrall, and Willie Garson for bringing to life one of the best sitcoms ever allowed on American TV.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
It's not TV
It's not TV, it's HBO.

And, um, best sitcoms ever? We're gonna have to agree to disagree on that one. And just for the record, a number of your fellow gheys are appalled by the paper-thin cliched stereotype characters that Stepin Fetchit Willie Garson and Mario Cantone played on that show....not that this topic has anything to do with SSP whatsoever, I just didn't want everyone thinking that the gheys are monolithically supportive of Sex and the City lest someone suggest drafting Kim Cattrall to run for public office...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Oh, come on
If my choices were a. be a United States Senator, or b. host The Price Is Right, b would win out every time.

[ Parent ]
Do both
And run The Price Is Right on C-SPAN.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Senator Dan Inouye, Come on Down!
You're the next contestant on The CBO Score is Right!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
LOL, but
the GOP would protest the CBO numbers when they disagreed with them

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't vote for a TPIR host unless
his platform included a 24 hour-a-day TPIR channel, C-SPAN wouldn't cut it for me.

[ Parent ]
Wow... that's pretty pathetic...
Seriously... Remember when they tried to get Ditka to run?  I guess it's pretty clear that Sherrod Brown is not likely to face a top tier opponent.

[ Parent ]
Mary Taylor would be their last remaining top tier candidate...
However, the scuttlebutt around the state is that she's not showing much (if any) interest in the Senate race, at least as of right now.  She may be pushed into it eventually, since no one else seems interested, but that's too early to predict.  

[ Parent ]
Mike Dikta
I'm pretty sure llinois Republicans try to get Ditka, or at least toss his name around in public, when Jack Ryan had to bail out because of his sex scandal? I remember more than a few Democrats in Illinois on one message board telling me not to dismiss the idea, because he'd have a lot of his support in Chicago based on his Superbowl victory.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Bowen
If Sec'y of State Bowen in Ca. thinks that all she had to do is drop her name into this contest and she'd win, she's sorely mistaken.  Her opponent rolls out more endorsements all the time.  I know endorsements aren't everything, but, Hahn is creating quite a buzz in this area, especially since not much else is being talked about in this contest.  Bowen's latest public comment is that she fits into her daughters jeans?  Not impressive, when she hasn't said much else.  Bowen is weakening her name and reputation and leaving herself open to being primaried in her next election.    

Sure endorsements are nice
But if you look at her posts on social media it's pretty clear that Bowen's actually getting out and meeting with the grassroots, which probably has much more of an impact than Hanh saying that someone on the other side of LA County likes her. I'm not exactly impressed with her performance right now either--Bowen clearly needs to step it up--but criticism of her is rapidly devolving into hyperbole.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
WI-Sen
The news may require a caveat but this looks alright even if Herb Kohl retires.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


I think Wisconsin may (again) prove fool's gold for the Republicans
This seat, at worst, is Likely D and the presidential showdown here is, at worst, Lean D. I think Kohl wins by 15 and Obama by 8.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Remember that Walker will be full out on voter suppression...
They already are passing a very restrictive voter ID bill that is designed to limit student and minority participation and may do away with same-day registration.

I suspect there will be a lot of voter purging as well.

It's not going to be easy.


[ Parent ]
Doubt either will be close enough
For that to matter. Not that it makes it right.

[ Parent ]
They couldn't pass it.
Since it has a budgetary aspect, they need a quorum.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Even if what you say is true
How much do you think this changes the electorate? I absolutely hate these types of strong-arm tactics, but it's not going to move the electorate by anything more than a point or two.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Can't the Democrats do anything in response?
I'm not sure of the specifics of the voter fraud bill Walker is proposing, but if it's the usual stuff about same day registration and identification and so on, can't the Democrats do anything in response--not with legislation, but by encouraging those with identification problems to get it and by trying to get people to vote early?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
If Kohl runs
It'll be a non-race. Every Republican is scared to death of Kohl's self-funding ability.

The Republicans only shot at beating Obama in Wisconsin is if Walker caves soon and 15-18 months from now when the presidential election really starts(I'm talking general not the primaries) the energy on the Dem side will have dissipated and they can hope to get back to that 2010 anger towards Dems.


[ Parent ]
Yeah sure
If he caves, then his approval won't reach Schwarzenneger levels for pissing off everyone.
Dems are fighting this so hard, making it impossible for the GOP to compromise even if they want to, Dems will have to go back sometime, if they stay for another week, people will stop talking about it. Walker know that he can't compromise because there goes his governorship and career, if it passes, he becomes the tough guy hero. People like winners, hate losers. It's a fact. HCR was so streched out and modified 100 times for it to look like standing tough and winning, more like made most possible concessions to all powerful lobbyists and senators till it passed. Walker can't afford this

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
Awww
Somebody call the waaambulance. Seriously, turnabout is fair play. But I do enjoy reading your sterling efforts at spin.

[ Parent ]
Walker probably should have thought about that beforehand...
Walker screwed up and now he will have to pay the price unless he "compromises", which he probably considers a four letter word.  Instead, if he sticks to his principles, he will alienate many voters and could possibly be recalled in 2012.  


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Holt's my congressman! ^_^


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Holt is a fraud......
His real name is John Connor and he has come back from the future to destroy Skynet.

There, I said it.

Connor, you're back on the grid!

[Cue evil laugh.]

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I think you mean
Kyle Reese.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Nope, I think it's Connor himself this time. Reese never had to hide......
He had no identity in our time, he never had to hide.

Connor was off the grid in Rise of the Machines.

Now I think he's come back himself to save us all.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
IA-01
All three Iowa Democrats voted for the 2-week continuing spending resolution yesterday (to prevent a fed government shutdown), but only Bruce Braley issued statements about his votes on the CR. He is still sounding like a deficit hawk.

WATN? Iowa edition
Some SSPers may recognize the name Jeff Lamberti. He was a state senator from Ankeny (Des Moines suburb) and the GOP candidate against Leonard Boswell in 2006. That was the last time the NRCC spent heavily in IA-03, but Lamberti fell short in the Democratic wave year.

Governor Terry Branstad just named Lamberti to the state Racing and Gaming Commission.

Bruce Rastetter, who provided the early seed money for the 501(c)4 American Future Fund and was the top individual donor to Branstad's gubernatorial campaign, just got appointed to the Board of Regents (oversees three state universities).

A couple of months ago Branstad announced that Mariannette Miller-Meeks was his choice to head the Iowa Department of Public Health. MMM, the ophthalmologist and two-time GOP nominee against Dave Loebsack in IA-02, had her confirmation hearing in the Iowa Senate last week. No Senate vote yet, to my knowledge, but it sounds like her hearing was uneventful. She had previously claimed on her Facebook page that Iowa Senate Democrats were holding up her confirmation.


Arkansas redistricting: Fayetteville in AR-04?
http://www.thecitywire.com/ind...

If this is actually being considered, it's a pretty ambitious plan for a gerrymander.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.


Woah Woah Woah
I thought Arkansas did whole county redistricting?  Apparently that's not the case?  Anyway, I'm all for it.  Gerrymander the heck out the state please!  

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
That was by tradition, not by statute.
Now, they'll have to be far more dextrous than they used to be to help their chances in 2012.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Buddy Roemer running for President
http://www.politico.com/news/s...
All I can say is wow.  

Why so many "Buddies" in LA?
Buddy Roemer, Buddy Caldwell, Buddy Leach....

Is it a nickname of endearment?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
hey Louisiana, mind taking Buddy Cianci off our hands?
RI could do without him!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Fmr Lousiana Gov Buddy Roemer is running for president
http://www.politico.com/news/s...
Roemer is a former Democrat who became a Republican in the middle of his term. He managed to alienate so many people during his time as governor, in the 1991 governor's election he came in third place behind David Duke and Edwin Edwards (leading to the famous "Vote for the lizard, not the wizard" campaign). Obviously this guy is going nowhere. But he will be fun to watch.

Male, VA-08

More or less legit than Gravel?
I assume that is the appropriate standard here.

[ Parent ]
I think the question is: will his ads be as good?


Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
He looks
like a college professor.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
don't know what college you go to...:P


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Somewhere in between Gravel and Moseley Braun '04


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Indiana State Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson will
be in Washington DC for a series of meetings.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

I'm curious as to what it could mean.
Could it be a Senatorial, Gubernatorial, or Congressional run. Could it be something else entirely.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
A trip to DC
Would suggest a federal race.

[ Parent ]
I would assume a Senate run.
That would be interesting. I always thought she wanted to run for Governor.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Maybe not
I assume the DGA is headquartered in DC, and the DGA chair is Martin O'Malley, from MD.  

[ Parent ]
That's what I thought.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I doubt it.
Governor is an open race without any big fish in and she has always wanted it. She wouldn't primary Donnelly.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
er, not that she could anyway
her Senate district is Bloomington, IN-09

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
I just got what you meant
my bad.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
Simpson
for Governor, Donnelly for Senate, Locke Congress. Not my ideal ticket but not a horrible one.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
She would be a hell of a lot better
then Jill Long Thompson and Mike Pence is no Mitch Daniels.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Hell
my fourteen year old morbidly obese cat would be better than Jill Long Thompson. Simpson would be higher on my list than Gregg and honestly looking at the list of declines I think she is the best we can get. Though if she is serious about this she will have to move to the right, which will be tough for her. This helps Locke or whoever else we nominate as turnout in Bloomington will be out of this world. Assuming Bloomington stays in the 9th that is. You know Locke looks more appealing to me every day. He lives in a very rich and Republican area in the Knobs so he could do well there and Simpson would up Bloomington turnout. He is looking at a min of 40 and has nowhere to go but up. That is factoring in a good percent for the lib nominee who always do well here. I'm not saying he will win- he won't, but he will probably make Young sweat a bit at least. Plus the guy is energetic as hell. Have you had a chance to see him speak? He is having a fundraiser this weekend, if you've got $50 you should definitely go, he reminds me a lot of Tom Periello.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I would vote for your cat over Rep. Pence.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I
 do warn you though that she will bankrupt the state with her cat food bill. She doesn't eat the cheep stuff, I have to go to a pet store uptown to buy that uber pricey stuff, I swear she eats nothing else. She's cute though. She does make it hard to blog though, the lap hog.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I'm so beyond broke.
She would have to move to the right, but not a whole lot. She could run a populist campaign. What happened here, in Wisconsin, and Ohio has woken up a true beast, not anything like the Tea Party. It may not be enough, but it's definitely worth a shot. She could also bring a few counties around Monroe with her.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Guns Guns Guns
I am not for sure but I assume she supports gun control? If so then she has to give up that if she wants to win. You can get away with being pro-choice but being anti gun is a real no-no. Besides that she probably won't be move too far to the right.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Walter Jones
I think he would fall under 'true believer' too. He and Ron Paul are apparently really good friends (both have been screwed for chairmanships by House leadership in the past). However, I know he is more moderate on financial regulation, if not on spending.

19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

Jones
He has been voting with Dems on all manner of issues lately, including a lot where the Dem position isn't the libertarian position.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
House version of Dick Lugar
Conservative but not, well, a dick about it. At least since the "Freedom Fries" business.

[ Parent ]
When I lived in NC-03
Jones always seemed decent (for an R) on environmental issues.

[ Parent ]
He felt really mistreated
by the Republicans over Iraq. He's been fairly bitter about it ever since.  

[ Parent ]
The irony is that it was Jones himself who mandated "freedom fries"...
...in the House cafeteria.

And then he eventually did a complete 180, becoming a stalwart opponent of the war and joining anti-war liberals on every vote.

Jones came from a conservaDem upbringing, as his dad was a Democratic Congressman in the state for a long time.  Walter, Jr. ran as a Democrat and lost the primary in a majority-black district, switched parties out of pique and upon his father's deathbed advice to do so in order to get elected in the future, and then got elected in his own right in another district.  He was hard right for quite awhile but has mellowed since the Iraq War, not unlike Bob Inglis in South Carolina.  But for whatever reason, no strong primary challenge to Jones has ever emerged, not even in the last hard right teabagger wet dream cycle, even though people have tried a couple times.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Debra Bowen
just responded to SwingState on Twitter.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

Link
http://twitter.com/#!/DBowen

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Link
http://twitter.com/DBowen/stat...
For some reason its not showing on her Twitter page.  

[ Parent ]
She's
got a fair point. That is the reason I like her.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think it was
an unreasonable tweet. She was trying to look accessible and real, but I guess when you have a tight primary like this you must be serious at all times.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
People who would criticize her for that tweet really need to seek out lives
Sheesh.

[ Parent ]
Mississippi
The filing deadline has passed. No Democrats are running for lieutenant governor, auditor or secretary of state. They were lucky to get a few last minute filings that let them get 5/8 candidates for the statewide positions though.  

NBC/WSJ poll
Generally one of the more reliable nationals. Obama job approval 48-46, down from 53-41 post-Tucson. With RV the president leads a generic Republican 45-40, Romney 49-40 and Pawlenty 50-31. As ever, everything depends on the economy.

http://online.wsj.com/article/...


So, everyone's idea
of an ideal (or perhaps likely) Republican still runs behind.  

[ Parent ]
WATN?
Actually that is not fully correct. He will be becoming CEO, he will not be a lobbyist. I heard this on MSNBC. The person that was talking said there was a clear difference between the two.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Hawaii Sen. Daniel Akaka won't seek re-election
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

LG LG LG LG!!!
Get some young blood.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
NM-Sen: Heather Wilson moving closer to run
Would be nice to hear
Some recruitment success on the other side. No, I'm not in a panic or even particularly worried either. I'm just saying.

[ Parent ]
OMG.
Who is that jackass on MSNBC? He just said people opposing Walkers legislation are a different breed of humans. He has said it multiple times and called everyone slobs and called unemployed people lesser than most. He concedes some of them our loveable slobs but still lesser people. He needs to be recalled. Any chance he does not represent an uber Republican area? What a freaking stuck up jackass.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

It
is much worse when you actually watch it. I literally can't describe it. My mouth was wide open the whole time. It was possibly the worst thing I have ever heard from an elected official. Much worse than anything Palin or Bachmann have ever said. Just wow.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Glenn Grothman.
I watched it as well. I was seething with anger, but he represents a pretty Republican area.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I'm
still in shock. I can literally not believe I heard an elected official of any sort call people who oppose him "lesser human beings." What the heck? This is why people hate politics. It's time to tone down the rhetoric a notch. Put this in a recall ad, hold him accountable. It might not work but freak it, I'm mad.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Though
thinking more rationally it might be better to focus recourses on places it could actually work.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
This only serves to
hurt his cause. So I don't know why he didn't just shut up or not even go on The Last Word last night or tonight.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
It was grouchy slob Glenn Grothman


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
That was last night.
It was even worse tonight. He called them lesser human beings.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I'll try to find a clip.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Oh, too recent
It'll probably not be up until later.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Did the Democrats really only file 49 candidates in the MS State House?
Maybe I'm misreading this...

http://www.mississippidemocrat...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


That hasn't been updated since Friday, I think.
SoS might have the final listings.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'm sure Bernie Sanders
is shaking in his boots. *snark

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Hooray!
So much for being only 10% in.  Now they can elect a better Auditor!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
MI Gov: Favorability Poll
Mirroring a similar poll released a few days ago by another organization (can't remember which one), this new Free Press-WXYZ shows Michigan Governor Rick Snyder's popularity waning just after a month in office.  This on seems to show an even greater drop than the last one, which, I suspect is a result of the turmoil that's happening in neighboring states:

Meanwhile, the huge popularity Snyder had in polls taken in late January sank considerably. Forty-four percent view Snyder favorably, and 27% view him unfavorably. In January, 59% viewed him favorably and 8% unfavorably.

That was after Republican Snyder's inauguration and his well-received State of the State address. Since then, he presented his budget plan Feb. 17, which features a sweeping reduction of business taxes and higher taxes for many individuals.

The poll was conducted Saturday through Monday by EPIC/MRA of Lansing. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

EPIC pollster Bernie Porn said Snyder's popularity has fallen farther and faster than President Barack Obama's did after he took office in 2009. Porn said voters' assessment of Snyder appears to have shifted quickly and sharply, draining from "the reservoir of good will he built up in the campaign...and through the inaugural."

The shift was most pronounced among Democrats and independents, who apparently don't share the governor's view that his budget and tax plan represent shared sacrifice, Porn said. Snyder's favorable rating among independents fell from 40% in January to 26%.

The poll found that while most oppose Snyder's pension tax plan, an even larger percentage - 58% - want to keep a tax credit for low-income workers that Snyder would scrap.

Only 36% favor eliminating the Earned Income Tax Credit, which gives about 700,000 low-income Michigan families an average $432 credit on their state income taxes. It is 20% of their federal Earned Income Tax Credit.

Looks like another state caught up in the red wave that's beginning to regret not looking more closely at the other option(s) during the election, but that's just my opinion.


Bernie Porn?
LOL!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yep
He's a longtime and highly respected pollster, and most of us don't even notice his surname, anymore.

[ Parent ]
A primary against Boehner?
For all those who suggest some, like me, place too much emphasis on the possibility of the Teabaggers helping us out via primaries, I give you this:

In another display of the Tea Party movement turning on its own ideological supporters, the head of one prominent group has said that House Speaker John Boehner looks "like a fool" as House Republicans push spending cuts in their budget proposal. And that leader wants the Tea Party movement to set a goal for 2012: to defeat Boehner in a Republican primary.

These people are so hellbent on $100 billion being cut because...well, that's what they were promised. Never mind there's no reason why $100 billion is so superior to $95 billion or something similar. They want what they want, however illogical. And if they don't get it, they are going to try to primary the Speaker of the House.

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


They threatened to primary him last year, too....
I think they do it every year.  I doubt it goes anywhere.  If they did manage to get someone real, they would have a better chance than average, since Boehner's approvals in his district are rather tepid.

[ Parent ]
Who threatens
to do it every ear? Also, are his approval ratings amongst all voters in his district tepid, or just with those in his party?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Both...
They want him to be more conservative and less buffonish.  A democrat wouldn't have a chance, there, but they want someone "better" than Boehner.  He gets voted in based on inertia and with underwhelming numbers in a non-contested race.

The last threatened challenge was from some Arpaio-type sheriff in his district.  Apparently, he likes to do that a lot.


[ Parent ]
That's a little different
than a Teabagger challenging him, though, no? I say this because if there's someone with a more national presence talking about finding someone to challenge him, it's got the potential to become a far bigger story and much more embarrassing for him.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Hey, I'm all FOR teabagger primaries!......
Yes methinks there has been some irrational exuberance as of late.  Understandably so after we saved a bunch of Senate seats last cycle thanks to teabagger primary wins, but I'm skeptical we didn't see the high-water mark for that, and this cycle will be a little more conventional.

But I root for teabaggers to prevail in primaries as much as anyone here!

Keep in mind part of my skepticism, which I haven't mentioned before, comes from my skepticism that teabaggers are smart or organized enough to walk and chew gum at the same time, by which I mean I see them hyperfocused on beating Obama this cycle, and delusionally insisting on doing so with the most hard-right Rethug possible.  That I think might crowd out any rallying around teabagging primary challengers in Senate or House races, or if they pull off an occasional challenge in the Senate, certainly not in House races where their energy is necessarily diminished from having taken the House and having no low-hanging fruit left to pick.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I think it's
a phenomenon we are much likelier to see in senate races rather than House races. And while like you, I think a lot of these people are, um, less than stellar in any number of ways, they seem to be thinking more strategically. We've seen them claim to be set to rally around one candidate in Indiana, for instance, to make sure Lugar doesn't get through a splintered primary. They won't succeed in every case, or even in most cases, but we don't need magic to strike that many times to help us keep or expand our majority in the Senate.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
VT-Senate Salmon sets up exploritory ctte
http://www.burlingtonfreepress...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

VA-Sen: Allen safe in GOP primary with 67%

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