Public Policy Polling (PDF) (2/24-27, Virginia voters, 11/10-13/2010 in parens):
Tim Kaine (D): 47 (50)
George Allen (R): 47 (44)
Undecided: 6 (6)Tim Kaine (D): 49
Bob Marshall (R): 35
Undecided: 16Tim Kaine (D): 49
Jamie Radtke (R): 33
Undecided: 17
Tom Perriello (D): 41 (42)
George Allen (R): 48 (47)
Undecided: 11 (12)Tom Perriello (D): 39
Bob Marshall (R): 35
Undecided: 26Tom Perriello (D): 40
Jamie Radtke (R): 32
Undecided: 28
Rick Boucher (D): 42
George Allen (R): 47
Undecided: 11Rick Boucher (D): 40
Bob Marshall (R): 32
Undecided: 28Rick Boucher (D): 40
Jamie Radtke (R): 29
Undecided: 31
(MoE: ±3.5%)
What I like about these numbers – and it’s something Tom acknowledges as well – is that George Allen does no better again Tom Perriello (who is unknown to 57% of the state) than he does against Tim Kaine. And who knows? Maybe we’ll get lucky and Allen will get teabagged to death by the likes of loonocrat Bob Marshall. Tom also teases that his presidential results show good things for Barack Obama, so yeah – I like these numbers.
It’s not good to see him leading, of course, but this numbers certainly suggest a ceiling for Allen.
I continue to think what other posters wrote about this race in another thread – this race will go the way of the presidency in Virginia, and right now that bodes well for the Dems.
Plus, I think this even overrates Allen’s strength, once the campaign gets started. I’ve never been impressed by him, and I think he’ll wilt in the spotlight just like he did in 2006.
But remember when Reid’s ceiling was 46%?
Especially in comparison to their November poll. Kaine favorables have gone from 43-40 to 46-38 yet his 50-44 lead has turned into a 47-47 tie. This despite an electorate that has changed from D+1 to D+5, is less white and where Obama lead both Romney and Huckabee by 5.
Has Allen broken from the GOP on any issue and taken a position antithetical to conservative doctrine?
George Allen is an evil racist motherfucker:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
We could go back and forth for a long time about how Perriello’s numbers might improve based on this or that or how Independents might split their vote. But I think it’s safe to say that both parties will probably secure their bases pretty well. Against Allen, Kaine receives 86 percent of Democrats while Allen receives 87 percent of Republicans. This might not seem like a big deal, but it is. The D/R/I breakdown is 39/34/27 in this poll, very similar to 39/33/27 it was in 2008. With 86 percent of Democrats, Kaine receives 46.9 percent of the vote. With 87 percent of Democrats, that number increases to 47.38. That’s almost a half a point better.
In 2008, both Obama and McCain received 92 percent of their party’s votes, while in 2006, Webb received slightly less of the Democratic vote, 92 percent, than the 93 percent of the Republican vote Allen received. Would it honestly surprise anyone to see Kaine or any other Democrat outpace Allen amongst Democrats simply because a lot of them will be black voters showing up for Obama and will be voting against Allen? Against a lot of other Republicans, this might not be true, but Allen’s clearly a special case.
If Kaine managed to receive 95 percent of Democrats and Allen only 93 percent of Republicans, he’d have 50.5 percent of the vote.
Of course, none of this means anything is guaranteed for Kaine or for any other Democrat. But again, slightly outpacing the Republican in an electorate that’s heavily Democratic doesn’t seem unreasonable, especially if the candidate is George Allen. Against a Teabagger, it probably doesn’t matter, because someone like Kaine would easily win.
Just given the demographics of Virginia, this was always going to be close. I think these numbers are actually decent-to-good for Democrats. That the Republicans are already striking at Time Kaine (who isn’t even formally in the race) says something. I can see this turning out much like the Allen’s race with Webb, which was also ridiculously close.
Kaine is the preferred candidate, but I think it’s a good sign that defeated Congressman with low statewide name recognition are breaking 40% at this stage, those are clear solid numbers to build upon.
Much has been made about how difficult it will be for Allen with presidential turnout. If it is anything like 2008 then the Democratic nominee can afford to do considerably worse than Jim Webb within each subset. If they do the same a 50-49 Allen defeat becomes a 55-45 Allen defeat. He experienced this to a point when he barely beat the damaged Chuck Robb in 2000. And the state is far different today.
Obama job approval 48-45, leads Romney 48-42, Huckabee 51-43, Gingrich 51-39 and Palin 54-35. Impossible for a Republican to win without Virginia. Impossible for Allen to win too IMO.