I like the map

 For Carnahan, I would suggest remvoing Cape Girardeau though. Besides being Rush Limbaugh's hometown, it is also heavily Republican. There are some rural counties like Iron and Washington County which Obama won and are close to Carnahan's district. It would be a good idea to add those and remove some of Cape Girardeau.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

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by: Alibguy @ Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 00:04:47 AM UTC

Thanks for posting this map

MO is a real wildcard.  I like your map because it clarified my thinking.  Lacy Clay's seat is safe for him but I think he would not like it.  Too much territory and as noted its got that GOP area in St Charles.  I think Lacy Clay asks for and gets more friendly area in st. Louis county and city.  He either gets it from democrats or from republicans.  Either way he stays out of St Charles county.  

Lacy Clay got rolled in 2001 by the very powerful congressman Dick Gephardt.  That does not happen now.

Lacy Clay is his own man.  He has announced his oppisition to a white County judge that McCaskill and the President have nominated for a federal judgeship.  He is not going to be shy about flexing his muscles in this redistricting fight.  

That being making predictions about the outcome is a wildcard.

I really like your setup for CD5.  I think that pleases Graves & Cleaver

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 01:03:08 AM UTC

What are you talking about?

Lacy Clay didn't get "rolled" in 2001 (see below). Although there were disagreements between Gepbhardt and Clay about the composition of their districts, Clay was willing to cede some ground - and guess what, he hasn't suffered a serious challenge at any point this entire decade.  

MOREOVER, whatever issues Clay might have, they would have nothing to do with the map posted above. Although Clay could quite possibly ask for some mixed-race neighborhoods in St. Louis to be included in his district (as was done in the map above) he would have no interest in pushing for the inclusion of South St. Louis.  Why on earth would Clay want the overwhelmingly white and overwhelmingly Democratic constituents of South St. Louis City in his district? His district is already impossibly Democratic and including a lot of white Democrats who he's never represented would make him more, not less vulnerable to a primary challenge.

``This was an agreement that they reached mutually.'' Clay said Tuesday that he was willing to help Gephardt shore up his district. ``I went into that meeting knowing he needed help,'' Clay said. ``As long as he was reasonable, I would be reasonable.''
http://archive.fairvote.org/re...

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

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by: okiedem @ Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 02:07:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You need to read all those links

as one story out and out implied that Lacy Clay was forced into the deal over the black voters  in MO3.  The Press at the time was reporting that Clay was stronge armed into the deal and that Clay & Gephardt had to publically defend the deal.  

Clay played the good soldier but get less of St Louis city then what he wanted when the process started.  Gephardt was invulnerable and the AA voters he got in St Louis was gravey to him while Clay was bumped down below 50% to accomdate a safe incumbent.  Its all there in those links if you read between the lines.  Clay wanted to keep voters friendly to him and Gephardt wanted them.  Clay lost and made nice about it.

I remember reading numerous accounts that Clay's allies felt misused by the deal.  And yes Clay would have rather have the heavily unioned-blue collar South side of St Louis then the heavily republican white collar St Charles.  

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 02:41:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rep. Clay may be his own man...

But Democrats aren't going to cut Rep. Carnahan out of St. Louis City altogether, much less give Rep. Clay all of the blue-collar suburbs in South County. If then-Rep. Gephardt could coax him into being a team player during the last round of redistricting, then I think Clay can be persuaded to take a district he'll win 65-35 in a terrible cycle in order to give Carnahan a fighting chance at reelection rather than letting him demand a district he'll win by no less than 80-20.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 04:03:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Buty even if they do draw one consolidated St. Louis district

...whose to say that Carnahan can't run in the primary against Clay? He'd have a solid southside base and has much more experience with competitive elections. I imagine that such a primary would be among the tough races of Clay's career and think that Carnahan would have a good shot at pulling off an upset, though I admit that my opinion of Clay is extremely negative largely due to his turning what could have been a reasonable objection to Rep. Steve Cohen joining to CBC into something rather petty and hateful.

In any event, a solid Democratic district that invites a challenger from Carnahan puts Clay at significantly more risk than a strong Democratic district like the one you created that takes in a few Republicans.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 06:36:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is obvious he can

And it is obvious he can lose.

But this option is not acceptable for the democrats. This option deserve a democratic veto.

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by: abgin @ Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 22:46:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Technically, if Rep. Clay got black Democratic legislators on board...

Republicans and black Democrats can join together to override the veto.

But I think Rep. Clay will be more reasonable than that. I hope.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 23:00:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why would black legislators do it?

There are not reasons for it.

About this issue I think there is not discussion possible. MO-01 is a majority black district, and there are very few options for keep the district over 50% black. Then, the map must go to it if want not end in the court. MO-01 must take a decent number of precincts with decent or big percentages of black populations in the city of Saint Louis, but can not take all the city because is too much white people for keep the district over 50% black. One of the very few possible examples:

I know not the exact residence of R Carnahan but I think he can get out the new MO-01, and I think he need not to live out the city of Saint Louis.

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by: abgin @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 00:24:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's cutting it very fine...

And it really doesn't leave Rep. Carnahan with enough of a base to compete if he gets thrown together with Rep. Emerson or is forced to take on a lot of Rep. Akin's territory.

Fantastic effort, though, wow. How long did it take you to find the magic combination to get to 50% black?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 00:48:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is not as difficult taking the basis of the old district and

and looking to the colored maps by race what are in the application. David give the chance of do it so easily.

Still I would need to quit one or two white precincts in the city of Saint Louis because this 50.0 is cause of to round off. But it is possible to draw a district over (narrowly) 50% black.

Logically that mean R Carnahan loses a decent number of favorable precincts. It is more difficult to work about his district doing a good stimation what give him the chance of fight for a fair EVEN district with one of his republican neighbors.

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by: abgin @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 01:27:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

also

i don't know if this is intential, but for VAP, it is just barely plurality black. kudos

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

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by: jncca @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 04:13:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

yes I see this little difference after post the map

but is pretty easy to do a 50%+ black district since this basis becasue in the borders they are precincts, like 95% white 5% black. Then if you quit very few of them you have a 50% black without effect of the round off.

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by: abgin @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 04:46:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Two things...

1.  Missouri now has 2010 census numbers in DRA, so hopefully you used those.

2.  If you want to keep MO-3 borderline competitive, it ought to include all of Jefferson, Saint Genevieve, Washington, and Iron Counties.  It's true that the four put together only have around 272,000 people and a PVI of R+2, but combined with the right Saint Louis area voters, it's not too bad.  Hell, you could probably throw in Saint Francois as well - McCain only won it by 5%.  This brings the total up to 338,000, and R+3.  

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by: eschaton @ Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 01:16:29 AM UTC

I would explore some option like this

Finding something like a EVEN district. But I have some trouble estimating the rating of the Saint Louis area (city and county) included in the district.

The district includes also T Akins home, then, in fact that would be a MO-02/MO-03 merge.

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by: abgin @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 01:16:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The bulk of the population there is St. Louis County...

And eyeballing it, a big part of St. Louis County under that drawing is conservative territory. I'd call that an R+4 or close.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 01:17:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Some data to help estimating

The total population of Saint Louis County is 992408. The county is 60% Obama.

The population of Saint Louis County included in this version of a merge MO-02/MO-03 is 463961 (the 46.75% of the population of the county) and the .

If the district is R+4 that would mean the part of Saint Louis County inside is something like 48% Obama as maximum, and being close to a half of the county, that would mean the rest of the county (including the uncolored part of the east of the county) is someting like 72% Obama. There are difference, but do you think it is possible as big difference between the north and the south of the county?

By the south of the district we have:
Washington R+4
Iron R+3
It would be a little improvement if we quit the most unfavorable town in Saint Louis County.

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by: abgin @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 02:04:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's more west and east...

As the ideological divide, east being more blue-collar, unionized, and racially diverse.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 03:19:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This was my impression

Then the district maybe some point better than R+4. The 60% Obama for all the county is so intense democratic leaning.

Just exploring options.

Missouri will is very interesting since the point of the redistricting process. It is not in my Top-10 but so close to it.

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by: abgin @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 03:49:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

will be sorry

This would be my Top-10:

1 Illinois
2 Maryland
3 Arkansas
4 Oregon
5 New York
6 Colorado
7 New Jersey
8 Washington
9 Nevada
10 New Mexico

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by: abgin @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 03:57:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You may be right...

But North County and the inner ring of suburbs around St. Louis City are intensely Democratic, while the parts now in Rep. Akin's district are intensely Republican (the present MO-02 is R+9), more comparable to St. Charles County than the parts of St. Louis County now in MO-01 and MO-03.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Thu Mar 03, 2011 at 04:05:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for feedback, map(s) have been updated

I realized I wasn't using the 2010 Census numbers and that I needed to draw the map from scratch in order to access them, as some of the voting districts appear to have changed.

To make up for it...double the fun.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

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by: SaoMagnifico @ Wed Mar 02, 2011 at 03:59:36 AM UTC