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WI-Gov: Buyer's Remorse for Scott Walker

by: DavidNYC

Mon Feb 28, 2011 at 4:54 PM EST


I always love these sorts of "do-over" polls, and PPP has a particularly good one:

We'll have our full poll on the Wisconsin conflict out tomorrow but here's the most interesting finding: if voters in the state could do it over today they'd support defeated Democratic nominee Tom Barrett over Scott Walker by a 52-45 margin.

Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee, of course lost to Walker, by a very similar spread, 52-47. Tom Jensen identifies two important shifts: First, respondents in union households (about a third of the sample) now prefer Barrett by a 64-33 margin, but when asked how they voted in 2010, only went to Barrett 54-40. You gotta wonder about that one-third of union household voters who still support Walker... but nonetheless, this is a big shift, and Walker is doing wonders when it comes to energizing our side.

The other change Tom calls out is that even Republicans are starting to sour on Walker. They say they went for him by a 93-3 spread in 2010, but now only back him 87-10 - that is to say, 10% of Republicans wish they could have voted for the Dem instead.

I'd also like to point out one other detail. Independents tested here claim they voted for Walker by a 45-44 margin last year. In reality, though, exit polls showed indies backed Walker by a far bigger 56-42 spread. So somewhere between last year's election and now, around 11% of independents could no longer find it in their hearts to say they backed Walker. Now, some of these in PPP's poll simply didn't vote last time, and some I'm sure genuinely don't remember. But some proportion of independents just don't want to tell a pollster that they pulled the lever for Walker four months ago.

As far as the "re-do" question goes, indies favor Barrett by a 49-44 spread. So it looks like (for the moment) Walker's "base" among independents is around 44-45%, but about half of the indies who can't say what they were up to in 2010 are now professing to prefer Barrett. This means Gov. Walker is pulling off a pretty impressive trifecta: He's alienating members of his own party, he's struggling with independents, and he's firing up people who comprise a key part of our base. While David Koch surely approves, if Scott Walker ever wants to get re-elected, he's definitely doing it wrong.
DavidNYC :: WI-Gov: Buyer's Remorse for Scott Walker
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WI-Gov: Buyer's Remorse for Scott Walker | 70 comments
I wonder if they'll actually get a redo...
This year or next. Isn't there a recall provision in Wisconsin's Constitution for Governor? I wonder if PPP asked about recall and whether WI voters are willing to do it (which, I guess, would be a reverse of what California did almost 8 years ago).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
There is a recall provision
But an official has to be in office for a full year before they can be recalled

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Remember
That SUSA poll that had Christie's approval at 33% during the budget fights last year? How did that one turn out for this moment? Point is that Governors aren't popular many times during budget fights, Mitch Daniels had the same thing and where is his popularity now in Indiana?

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
SUSA here
http://www.bluejersey.com/diar...

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
As someone from NJ
Let me say that Christie did NOT overreach like this.  Sure he got some people mad, but he still toed a certain line.

Also, that SUSA poll was about favorables, not about who they'd rather vote for in a "redo."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
He spoke fighting words
But never did he formally propose making NJ right-to-work or ending collective bargaining.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
On
Your first point, well,  Walker isn't in 33% territory.  On second point,  favs are usually higher than approvals

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
Christie is an exception
His favorables are usually lower than his job approval.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Okay, so Govs aren't popular during budget fights
So?

The poll just said that.

[ Parent ]
For one thing
This is far from a run-of-the-mill budget fight. For another, New Jersey does not allow recall of its elected officials.
[ Parent ]
If I recall correctly
New Jersey actually does allow recalls. There was that attempt by those teabaggers to recall Menendez (which wouldn't work, since he is a federal official), and the NJ constitution states that "The people reserve unto themselves the power to recall, after at least one year of service, any elected official in this State"
[ Parent ]
Sorry
You're right. I got the Menendez effort mixed up with state-related efforts. Ah, so we can dream of recalling Christie....
[ Parent ]
Right, there is a lot more going on
than just MosheM's simplistic point saying Govs get more unpopular in budget fights.

Also here is not just unpopularity, but a desire to switch votes, after basically only someone being in office for two months.  As we know, most politicians are unpopular, but that doesn't mean people will wish they could switch votes.  At the worst of the health care debate, there was no huge wave of people saying "I wish I voted for Mccain".

The results of the poll, if true, show Walker losing the consent of the governed at a pretty phenomenal pace.  While this is partly true to the obvious "bugets make ya unpopular", there is much more going on than that.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, it's very simple-minded to analogize Wisconsin to anyplace else......
There are budget fights and fights over pubic employee benefits and collective bargaining in a lot of states, but nowhere is it a massive story absorbing the voting public like in Wisconsin.  Wisconsin is just wildly different in the politics of this.

And Walker's fellow GOP Govs are unintentionally leaving him on an island, making him fend for himself politically rather than try to go where he's going.  That, too, distinguishes from everyone else.

I think it a longshot that anyone ultimately gets recalled, especially the Governor, but it would be sweet if it happened.  I just don't know if the state Senators can hold out long enough.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Mayors too
I'm old enough to remember when Bloomberg was gonna be a one-termer.  
[ Parent ]
That's different.
Bloomberg was fabulously wealthy and the Dem primaries were too brutal.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He had also regained his popularity by 2005
no one was going to beat him.  
[ Parent ]
If people would f*cking vote, this wouldn't be a problem
How hard is it to just cast a damn vote. It's so frustrating and reminds me of what an old college professor once told me;

"Republicans only need one small reason to vote, Democrats only need one small reason not to"  

can the dem senators in WI be recalled?
I don't see why not, other than inability to get signatures, or they haven't been in office for a year.  if this is the case, i'd say that's a big risk for dems.  Note, i'm not saying they should come back to end the standoff, but that republicans might use the recalls the same way the dems might.

With labor so fired up and Walker suddenly a tea party Cause celebre, it's safe to say the bases will be equally energized come any recalls.  this means,since this it's WI, should result in a dem advantage.  

It's possible however, that if the stand off is still happening (unlikely, but not impossible) that the republican message of "elect us and this ends" might be popular with people who vote, but don't have a horse in race.  How many people this would be of course, is difficult to say.

Normally it's a small universe of voters where the dem base would have the advantage, especially since it's energized and in solid D districts.  if the races become nationalized however, with all the news networks bringing attention to them more people could vote, feeling its their duty.  

even if the standoff is long gone (i'm not sure when a recall would occur) a bad taste in the mouths of the voters could either have a pox on  both your houses mentality, or they could refrain from voting in that race altogether (if the recalls occur with the 2012 election).  I don't think these possibilities are particularly likely, but perhaps warrant a thought.



Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Pretty much all the Democrats
in the WI Senate are in safe seats, or are in leaning-Dem seats. It's the GOP that has almost all the swing seats. Therefore, there is more of a risk for the GOP for there to be a recall election.
[ Parent ]
GOP
Doesn't have the swing seats from '08 which are the ones eligible for a recall effort already  

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
THIS^
people forget those elected last year can't be recalled yet, and only half the senators are up per cycle

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Yes, Dems would be subject to recall, too
But in the discussion we had on this last week, few people (myself included) felt this would be a major risk, not least because Dems are simply in bluer seats. The GOP won a lot of marginal territory last year.
[ Parent ]
Recall process?
I get the part about how only Senators from the '08 cycle can be recalled at present, but does anyone know how the recall process actually works?  

Like, let's say Dems got their butts in gear and submitted the necessary number of signatures for one or two swing seat Republicans tomorrow. How long until the special election would take place and how does it work? Are there separate votes for recall and then a new election or is it all on one ballot like the California recall?   ...and has this question been answered elsewhere on SSP?  [if so, just link it]

....yeah, sure, I could look it up myself, but that would prevent one of my fellow SSPers from showing off their knowledge of the intricacies of Wisconsin election law.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
This is how it works:
If only one candidate from each party runs, the recall general election is held on the 6th Tuesday after the petitions are filed.  

If a primary is necessary, it is held on the 6th Tuesday after the petitions are filed, and the general election is held another four weeks after the primary.  

The incumbent is automatically on the ballot unless he or she resigns within 10 days of the petitions being filed.  All challengers must gather the usual number of signatures that Wisconsin requires to be on the ballot for that office.  

[ Parent ]
Check out
[ Parent ]
I
do worry that a recall could backfire. Assuming he survived it would only strengthen him in 2014. I want to see some polling about a recall before I make up my mind.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not sold
On a WI-Gov recall. But I think it may be worth pursuing on the state sen level.
[ Parent ]
Thank you both
Once again, I bow before the collective wisdom of the SSP community.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Shrug
Voters who change their mind from election to election are basically big babies. Probably this means that Democrats grab the Assembly in 19 months.  
Nah.
It just means that Democrats didn't bother to vote last November.

And now they're pissed off when a Republican governor begins to implement Republican policies. Well...if you so dislike Walker, you should've bothered to go vote against him last November.

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
It's a small point
but Barrett is still Mayor of Milwaukee.  
Good for him.
I'd hate to see him out of the job after losing to this guy.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He's very well-liked at home.
In fact, I've heard anecdotally that a number of Milwaukee residents didn't vote for Barrett for governor because they'd rather keep him as mayor.
[ Parent ]
Whoops!
Not a small point - I'll fix it!
[ Parent ]
Y'know what I want to see?
Recall poll:
Walker (R) vs. Feingold (D)

Let's see where the results lie.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Ugh, pick a decent Dem
Walker vs Barrett is the best choice.  If not Barrett, any names (Doyle, Obey, Lafolltte, anybody) are better than Feingold.
[ Parent ]
Obey
The man is quite old, and he retired. I don't think he would be eager to get back into the political arena so quickly

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
OBEY

[ Parent ]
It's not good that I find this image hilarious
And have for quite some time.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
That is because
You OBEY.
[ Parent ]
David Obey
Has a posse...

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Obey is younger than Jerry Brown
I'm not saying he'd be interested, but he'd be a good "generic D" to have on a poll.  Feingold would be the worst name (if they only tested one name).

Obey isn't told old to run, and actually would be a great candidate for the environment, just like Jerry Brown was essentially a reliable candidate.

[ Parent ]
Feingold is still well-liked in Wisconsin
It was Doyle's unpopularity that was a drag on Barrett and Feingold in the first place, so he is out.  Obey is probably not getting in as noted below, although you never know.  Doug La Follette is in a do-nothing office and has never actually run a campaign in the last 30 years.  The only reason he wins is because of his last name.  
[ Parent ]
Hey now
All I said is I want to see where the numbers lie first. We can take the rest and make a decision from there.

As for Russ (or any WI Dem now) do you not think 3ed party unions would not invest their entire budget in getting them elected? Feingold had one problem this cycle, he took it for granted until it was too late. Boxer took everything seriously from day one.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I would be surprised
If Tom did NOT ask that. Well, maybe he didn't test 2014. But I hope he did.
[ Parent ]
Walker is a joke
The truth of the matter is that Wisconsin got exactly what they elected:   a total ass that could care less about those "non-richy" people in his state.  Hell, I don't want Walker recalled because he's the gift that keeps on giving.  After 4 years of Walker, Wisconsin will be solidly Democratic for a generation.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
According
To your interesting math, WI would have to be red for a generation because Doyle had approvals in the 20s, just doesn't work this way.  

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
You have a point but...
There is a difference.  Doyle had approvals in the 20s because he refused to do anything bold to solve problems.  Walker's approvals are down (and are probably going down further) because people don't like the bold solutions he is proposing.  
[ Parent ]
so basically there's nothing anyone can do
without ending up with 20 percent approval ratings  
[ Parent ]
Well,
you can propose ideas that are actually good ideas.
[ Parent ]
Who decides they're "good ideas"
no one will know that until they're actually implemented and work.

[ Parent ]
Doyle didn't have low approvals
a few weeks after assuming office. And I'd like to see the poll that had him in the 20s.  
[ Parent ]
Here
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
Also, Doyle's low approvals were because the state was in
poor shape....

Walker's are because he's a confrontational d@#$. And I doubt he's magically going to turn into a "beloved" Chris Christie figure.

[ Parent ]
Yep
Walker is just an idiot.  Idiocy won't help him, his state, or the Republican party.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Good try
There's a big difference between Boyle and Walker...Walker basically gave the finger to the public union households, many of which supported his 2010 bid.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
I suppose
they haven't gotten the memo that pro-union GOP are running low these days.  They must have thought that Walker would be another uncontroversial Republican like Thompson.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Walker is no Thompson
Walker, should he survive his first term, will be the butt of many jokes in the future, along with enjoying the animosity of the folks in public unions.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Can members of the state house be recalled?


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
Yes, but
It would be almost pointless.  They couldn't begin the recall efforts until Jan. 3, 2012, and then the elections couldn't be held until six weeks later, in Feb. 2012.  Since the legislature goes out of session in May 2012, it really would be a waste of resources that could be better spent on November.  
[ Parent ]
Oh yes I forgot!
They were all elected at the same time.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Does this poll result only include those who voted?
i.e. reverse likely voters, or is it everybody (current registered voters)?  Jensen doesn't make that clear.  If it's the latter, then the numbers aren't very impressive.  Walker should be doing worse with RV's.
Hybrid
"PPP surveyed 768 Wisconsin voters from February 24th to 27th."
[ Parent ]
I wonder
Will this be one of those issues that solidifies in the minds of Wisconsin voters "well we tried the Republican and that was a serious mistake"
Maybe more like
We tried a conservative Republican and that was a serious mistake.  
[ Parent ]
This is sounding more and more like
Ted Heath, 1974.  
Couldn't resist
"Don't ask me what I want it for, (ah-ah, mister Wilson)
If you don't want to pay some more. (ah-ah, mister Heath)"
[ Parent ]
Someone understood!
A little context -- in '74, Heath put a number of strikers in jail for protesting takebacks. Heath thought the people were so behind him that actually believed that he could get a bigger majority by calling a new election.

If Walker believes in what he's doing, he should say to the recall efforts: "bring it on".

[ Parent ]
The RGA released
An ad today defending Walker. The spot itself is utterly banal and mediocre but I think the lede on the reaction to this ad is what isn't said. There's no mention of the words 'collective bargaining in it.' The whole ad is about how Governor Walker is trying to fix the budget and how teacher need to contribute more, etc. etc.

I do wonder exactly what the purpose of this ad was. Every Wisconsinite whose been following this issue at all knows that its about collective bargaining. Those who haven't don't care. So with an ad like this that clearly obfuscates the issue at hand, to whom exactly is it supposed to appeal to?

WI-Gov: Buyer's Remorse for Scott Walker | 70 comments

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