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There Goes the Mississippi Senate

by: mississippiboy

Sat Feb 26, 2011 at 6:21 AM EST


The Mississippi Senate is now in control by the Republicans.  I know this article is a few days old (it's been a crazy week, y'all), but I wanted to share the news.  The filing deadline is March 1 so any party switchers have, now, five days remaining to make up his or her mind.  For those keeping score, in the Mississippi Senate, the breakdown is now 27R, 24D, 1 Vacancy of a Republican-vacated seat (now-Congressman Alan Nunnelee).  The Mississippi House is barely hanging onto its Democratic majority.

http://www.clarionledger.com/a...
mississippiboy :: There Goes the Mississippi Senate
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There Goes the Mississippi Senate | 38 comments
Mississippi House will go Republican too
In November...
MS
Sadly it will go long before Novemeber.

What I don't get it is, how come there were virtuall no switches like this after 2006/08 towards us in the Northeast and the west?

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
Here's my take on that
as parties, both of them, have gone through a long transformation over the last 60 or so years.  Its hard to put an exact start to it.  In hindsight one might say HHH's speech to democratic convention in 1948 and the passage of a civil rights plank that year.  

In 1940's, and before, each party had moderate , conservative and even liberal wings.  There has been a long process of working rightward for the GOP and moving leftward for the democrats.  The middle is nearly empty and as the saying goes "the middle of the round is either for white lines down your back or tire tracks down them".  

There are a bare handful of liberal GOP legislators left and very few moderates.  After the 2006/2008 cycles there are mighty few liberal republicans left as they either lost in GE's or primaries by there.

The last bastion of the "conservative democrat"- which of these do not fit within the norms of either  party- is in parts of the South.  The conservative democrat is nearly gone from Texas, you can still find a few in OK and at one time they were numerous in NM, NV, AZ and elsewhere in the West.  You can't hardly find them anymore out there.

So you still have some real conservative democrats in the South.  In AR they still have the senate/house leadership.  In MS the house leadership is currently still democrat/conservative.  There are a few conservative democrats left in TN house/Senate.  In much of the rest of the South VRA & the GOP advance has decimated the conservative democrat.  There was a thread this week on VA senate.  They did not focus on the political views of state senators but  there are 3 or 4 senate democrats who might be called conservative.  50 years ago the state senate in VA was majority conservative democrat.  

So there are a still a few party changers out there for the GOP to pickup.  Not a lot of republicans for the democrats to look for.  The Parties are nearly all aligned on opposite poles.  
 

[ Parent ]
Generally agree with some corrections
I also put the "real" beginning of Democratic transformation at about 1948 though there were some "conservative rebellions" before that. Right now in addition to states you mentioned there are still some conservative Democrats in Alabama (though most were decimated in Republican wave of 2010) and more - in Louisiana (though much less then before, and surely there will be even less after elections of 2011).

But as far as Republicans are concerned - it's a period since late 1940 and up to late 60s when the most liberal Senators and reperesentatives of this party were elected. Such Senators as Case, Javits, Brooke, Mathias, such congressmen as Reid, Halpern, Whalen, Riegle (yes, he was a Republican first), Kupferman and some other - are all product of that period (when, as some historian write) Republican party adapted (and adopted0 some elements of New Deal.

All that changed rather quickly wint Goldwater-Reagan-Nixon and "Southern Strategy" in mid-late  60s, and continued all the way to the right since then...

[ Parent ]
Great points yes there was always
an uneasy alliances between the conservatives & progressives in the GOP.  The Taft forces fueded with the Dewey eastern establishment types and so forth. Ditto for the democrats as Al Smith certainly was out of line with most Southern & many other conservative democrats.  

FDR & the New deal exposed  the fault lines in both parties.  Southern Conservative democrats were wary of big spending ways & social issues pushed by some liberals.  The GOP was split down the middle between those who wanted to rollback the New Deal and those who wanted to modify/improve but not overturn it.

I see 1948 as the big fissure for the D's and yes 1964 was the GOP followup.  Nothing  happened  too fast as people like Eastland, Stennis, Talmadge and Russell Long held the keys to the US senate til the 80s or so.  While GOP types like Hatfield, Packwood, Javits and others had a similar path in the GOP.  

Its hard to just put a finger on events and say "turning point".  Either way we are certainly there now as we close to solid party line voting in both houses of congress.

[ Parent ]
Yes
And, as i wrote many times, that creates some "personal problems" for me))). I never was a "party boy", greatly preferring mavericks over party stalwarts. In addition - i am slightly left-of-center moderate Independent in my views and if 40 years ago there were people like me in both parties (and so, i, theoretically, could have ample possibilities to choose from, though i was too young then...), now, with increased polarization, there are few Democrats and even less Republicans of "my type".. In addition - similarness of candidates makes primaries (and general elections too) much less interesting and much more boring: when all you have is to choose among 6 very liberal Democrats or 6 extremekly conservative Republicans - it's simply no fun...))))
[ Parent ]
In Arkansas, part of the reason we haven't seen any switches is that the Republican Party is so weak.
The Republican Party there is run by Doyle Webb (who I don't like at all) and the first good election they've had was this year. All the other states have had some Republican Party Strength for a while now.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Same in West Virginia, but probably more so.
West Virginia is kind of like a reverse Michigan.  Even though it's gone Republican at the presidential level, the Dems dominate the state government and the Republican Party is downright pathetic.  Seriously.  In 2010, the Dems picked up a seat in the State Senate (moving up to 27-7) and went from 71-29 to 65-35 in the State House.

Armand or someone like that said that the Republicans are still clinging to the Moore family instead of finding someone new who isn't Raese.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
I don't see it as that likely.
It's 69-53 Dem-GOP right now in the State House.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It's more then likely
It's near certain. Republicans need only 8 seats for parity. With 5-6 conservative Democrats still in House and, most likely, ready to switch at any moment, they need only a gain of 3-4 seats to get a majority. And that's more then likely. There is not enough blacks in Mississippi (yet?) and only minimal support for Democratic party from whites.
[ Parent ]
If the deadline passes
and there are no more defections, what would you say then?

That's the assumption I was working under, that there'd be no more defections between now and March 1.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Then?
Then Republicans will win 6-8 seats in November at least and then 3-4 Democrats will defect giving them a majority in days after..
[ Parent ]
Hard to imagine that.
It's 69-53 Dem-GOP right now.  If it was November 2010, I'd call it likely, but it's a tall order in a normal election year.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Not hard..
Absolutely. Answered above. In addition - Republican statewide ticket will be much stronger then Democratic, and will, most likely, have some coattails
[ Parent ]
Do you think
Jim Hood will win?  If they lose the House (which isn't as certain as you say if there are no more defections between now and March 1), Jim Hood would be a good consolation prize.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
i will answer after March 1
and after seeing possible Republican candidates. But i am sure he is the only statewide Democratic candidate who can win in November. That alone tells a lot
[ Parent ]
If losses
are as likely as you say they are, perhaps now is the time to try something different when it comes to electing Democrats in the state. If there's not as much to lose, why not experiment, both with the types of candidates the party runs and the ways they try to elect them? Use these races as a trial period for other races in similar states in future elections.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
May be, but that depends on ideas of experiment
I don't see that idea "run progressives only" or "run blacks only" will be very productive))) It's not all that simple..
[ Parent ]
Morale is non-existant
White Democratic strength depended on the teachers unions, and a legal community that ran on an odd(and Republicans would argue corrupt) patronage system. The teachers see the way things are going and are making peace with the Republicans. The Republicans are buying off the black leadership. That leaves the trial lawyers.

Traditionally there was a story in Mississippi politics that you had three roommates at Ole Miss. One became a lawyer, one became the District Attorney and one became a judge. The AG would hire his old friend the lawyer to sue some major corporation for 100 times the value of the crime in a trial preceded over by the third friend. He would give them a massive win, which would then persuade the company to settle. The AG and Judge would then retire, go to the attorney's law firm, and receive a 20 million or so bonus for doing no work.

Of course all of these people were Democrats. Up until 2010, virtually all of the lower courts and local officials in Alabama were still Democrats. Therefore if you wanted to play in the legal field you had to be one, and Republican firms, and especially transplanted grads from Northeastern schools felt excluded, and ended up as Republicans by default. Now with the Republicans having replaced the local legal and judicial offices on straight ticket voting the expectation is they will treat Democrats the way Democrats treated them for 150 years.

For this reason its hard to express how gutted the Democrats are by this collapse. Virtually all of their non-black candidates came either from the unions or legal community and with both unavailable they are not even fielding candidates for virtually all of the GOP held seats in the legislature. There are 44% black districts going uncontested by Democrats in the State Senate this year, or look like they will be.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Can you tell me more?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Barely?
The Dems hold the State House 69-53.  How is that "barely" hanging on to a majority?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Barely
Even when Democrats had 75-47 majority in House after 2007 elections Democratic candidate for speaker won only on second ballot over Republican-supported very conservative Democrat 62-60 (first vote was 61-61). To have a real control in the South you need at least double-digit majority...
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I see what you mean.
A conservative coalition has the unofficial majority or very close to it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Exactly
And it always had - even in best Democratic days, when there was very few (if any) Republicans in legislature
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't say it's ALWAYS been that way
See

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H...

2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B...

3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J...


25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

[ Parent ]
Who speaks about Reconstruction here????
Naturally i speak about post-Reconstruction period. The very notion "conservative coalition" was formulated after Reconstruction..
[ Parent ]
I kid! I kid!


25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
[ Parent ]
You might just
substitute leaks to West (fL), Scott (SC) and Carrol (lt Gov fl).  I think you are going to see many more AA's running and winning as republicans.  Unlike senator Brooke (MA67-79) these republicans are in the conservative mainstream of the party.  

We had a county wide republican AA elected here in shelby county 2010. I think we will see many more AA's & hispanic republicans in years to come.  

Will that change how the AA community votes?  That's another question.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think so.
Many more is stretching it.  West is a disgraced war criminal, so you might want to discard as a potential candidate for something higher.  The issue is the GOP is still engaged in the Southern Strategy initiated by Nixon and Rockefeller and continued (but in a more discrete fashion) by Lee Atwater.  Lee Atwater himself said that the modern Southern Strategy involves a soft kind of racism done with innuendo.

And Brooke was a mainstream New England Republican.  To toss him aside as some "liberal" anomaly is misguided.

Also, as the GOP goes even crazier on immigration and turns into a European-style nationalist party, you can count on latinos turning on the GOP even more.  Texas GOPers are beginning to turn rotten as well on the issue.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Your slight
against Edward Brooke is irksome.  Just because he supported civil rights, economic opportunities, and whatnot he is somehow not in the club with the mainstream?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He Was Mainstream in the '70s
This New Model GOP is another matter entirely.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
I don't mean to be irksome but
the GOP leadership & President was pro-Vietnam.  Brooke along with Javits/Case/Hatfield were Doves.  Brooke and a 1/6 dozen of liberals sunk Haynesworth & Carswell.

On the key features of the Nixon era-1/2 of Brooke's term in the senate he was in oppisition to the key features of republican policies.  He was not alone but when I think of Nixon & GOP policies Brooke was out of the GOP mainstream.  

[ Parent ]
Many more might be
a stretch as there were five AA candidates for Congress in 2010 who had a serious chance to win.  Two lost in primaries (MI3 & AZ3)  and another lost in a GE. I would not be surprised to see 10 serious AA republican congressional candidates in 2012.  

In response to this and a  post below here's these comments.  I have seen a change in the attitude of republicans from the grassroots to the RNC committee on the issue of race over the last 30 years.  In the 1970's it common to hear that conservative movement  or the republican party just needed to lay out its principles and that like minded minorities & women would buy into it.  Stick to your principles and articulate the message was the common theme.  

The next step was to emphasize common ground as the idea or plan mentioned above was not working out well.  Now I think the GOP has gone one step further as the emphasis on common ground is still there  but the GOP grassroots and leadership are eager and willing to advance candidates who are AA, Hispanic and female who expouse conservative republican principles.  That's a change and yes its a sea change.  Whether it play out in the voting booth, long term or short term, is another matter.  

I for one think it was noticed that hispanic candidates were advanced by the GOP in 2010 in NM,NV and FL. Ditto for the number of female candidates the GOP put forward last year. Again will it make a difference?  Not sure.  Here's another catagory for you.  Citizen legislator.  We saw 1st time GOP candidates elected statewide in FL, WI, KY, NH and Maine.  There is a huge disconnect between voters and candidates out there.  The label career Pol is not a good one.

The long term effect is not clear in my mind and only time we tell.

[ Parent ]
Also
the Lt. Gov of FL is not an elected position.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I've heard this more than once, but I am not sure
where such an idea is coming from. Considering they've had virtually no success in recent years, it's not surprising that few minor successes look big. But they aren't, in the grand scheme of things. For whatever reason, blacks choose to run as Democrats and choose to vote for Democrats. There are always some exceptions, but they are few and far in between. There might be a few more examples of Tim Scott-like candidates--i.e. the sort of conservatives that would win easily in any conservative district--but they won't compose anything close to a significant chunk of the Republican party. It's a better situation with Hispanics, but it's the sort of building block that some elements of the party are working very hard to destroy.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Travis Childers
He should be the Mississippi Dem Party Chairman.  He would help build the party structure back up and hone the party message.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
May be - yes
He was a good congressman, and though he could not hold his district in 2010 (difficult district + wave year + best possible Republican candidate) - he still impressed me.
[ Parent ]
Also, 2010 wasn't a total loss for him.
His daughter was elected Miss Ole Miss that year.

http://houckportraits.com/wp-c...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
There Goes the Mississippi Senate | 38 comments

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