It is a good map, I like :)

I think still we would have margin for bid a 8D+3R map with districts like D+5 or a little better.

Looking to your map, I think Virginia gives the chance for a good Gerrymander finding the limits without do a ugly map.

I would suggest you mix a little your red and your green (South East) districts making the green a little safer.

I like very much to see more people finding good maps for the democrats.

This map help showing the strong pro-republican biass of the current map.

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by: abgin @ Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 19:28:01 PM UTC

I you wish to bid a 8D-3R

To find link your red and your yellow districs by the east of the light blue district would help surely doing more democratic the yellow.

I know not the map and the exact details, but this is my first impression.

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by: abgin @ Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 19:33:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you :)

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by: abgin @ Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 19:38:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wanted...

VA-4 to be absolutely secure as a VRA district, so I pushed for 50%+ Black VAP, rather than just 50% total population  Thus I was a bit penned in on that side.  

Here's an alternate I just worked worked out which I think is better.  I decided to wrap VA-1 down around the southern border, so it took in more 75% McCain areas, and exchanged them for 50-60% McCain precincts in Virginia Beach.  VA-3 picked up some white rural areas, and thus had to shed some territory to VA-4.  Overall, I think this is a far better configuration, with VA-2 now probably now only barely competitive for Republicans.  

VA-1: 57% McCain, 59% Republican
VA-2: 58% Obama, 54% Democrat
VA-3: 62% Obama, 58% Democrat
VA-4: 67% Obama, 62% Democrat

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by: eschaton @ Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 20:25:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is a good detail

I see not VA-04 was black before.

The change it is good enough, with this I think you can take VA-02 as Safe Democratic in a state like Virginia without tradition of moderate republicans. They only win IL-10 over D+4 (like 57% Obama). I think it is enough safe. Good work.

Surely with a very little improvement your VA-10 would be safe too. For improve it you have VA-08 and VA-11. Surely you have margin for do it keeping the three over 58% Obama and the VA-11 as VRA minority-majority district.

And for improve a little VA-05 you would have still some margin in the VA-03.

Like you can see you are very close to the limits, keeping VA-04 and VA-11 as VRA districts.

And the map looks so nice.

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by: abgin @ Sat Feb 26, 2011 at 04:16:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, let's put it this way.

I like the map. But if my NC map with R+4 or better seats wasn't safe enough in the eyes of just about anyone, then your Likely and Lean D seats also need shoring up. I mean, VA-5 is pretty much D+0, that's a toss-up.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

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by: Twohundertseventy @ Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 21:35:20 PM UTC

asymmetry

Rural and suburban seats in that part of the country tend to produce blue dog Dems (Boucher, Perriello, Nye, Kissell, McIntyre, Shuler) and really conservative Reeps (pick anyone but Walter Jones). In an R+4 district the Dems will put up a blue dog who can make a decent run, but in a D+4 district the Reeps will probably still put up a right-wing purist who will get thumped.

Perriello would go to town in a D+0 district, although he might lose a primary there.  

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 21:59:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cool map

Your VA-05 is particularly nice. In terms of your VA-10, my experiments with NoVA suggest that the best results for the Democrats puts all of Prince William in NoVA districts and splits Loudoun between NoVA and the Shenandoah.

Inspired by your map, I tried to figure out a maximal Democratic map for Virginia (which is probably code for dummymander). Here's my result:

VA-01
blue in eastern VA, abusing water contiguity (which is kosher by VA law, I believe)
Obama 54.4%, Democratic 50.1%

VA-02
green in Hampton Roads
Obama 54.6%, Democratic 51.3%

VA-03
purple in southern VA (should be VA-04 for comparison to current districts)
Obama 53.0%, Democratic 50.8%

VA-04
red connecting Richmond to Hampton Roads (should be VA-03 for comparison to current districts)
Obama 71.0%, Democratic 66.9%
VRA: 50.2% African American, 47.9% African American VAP

VA-05
yellow in western VA
Obama 53.3%, Democratic 53.2% (consistent!)

VA-06
teal in northwest VA
Obama 41.1%, Democratic 38.1%

VA-07
gray in central VA
Obama 38.3%, Democratic 36.9%

VA-08
blue in NoVA (Alexandria, central Fairfax)
Obama 60.6%, Democratic 57.8%

VA-09
light blue in southwest VA
Obama 34.3%, Democratic 37.2

VA-10
pink in NoVA (Arlington, north Fairfax, southern Loudoun)
Obama 59.4%, Democratic 58.8%

VA-11
green in NoVA (Prince William, south Fairfax)
Obama 59.8%, Democratic 53.4%

Overall, it creates four safe to likely Democratic, four lean Democratic to tossup, and only three safe Republican districts. If merely making minority white rather majority black districts satisfied the VRA (which I don't believe it does), it would be really easy to shore up VA-01, VA-02, and VA-03 -- while probably ending up with more minority-white districts.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

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by: borodino21 @ Sat Feb 26, 2011 at 02:23:36 AM UTC

NOVA...

Looking over the precinct map, I feel like it's better to take voters out of Loudoun than Prince William.  This is because Loudoun's pretty moderate - the Republican areas are generally under 60% McCain.  In contrast, northern Prince William has some very conservative areas, even though the southern portion of the county is pretty heavily Democratic now due to minority voters.  

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by: eschaton @ Sat Feb 26, 2011 at 04:12:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]