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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Feb 25, 2011 at 5:00 PM EST


James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 282 comments
For anyone who wants to try their hand
at redistricting the Virginia Senate, NLS put together a .drf file with the existing plan that you can work from.  
The Senate Dems redistrict their own chamber, right?
Is it going to play out like 2001 in NY?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The law seems to be
that the plans have to be approved by both chambers and the Governor. In other words, we'll have to watch the political process play out. And if the Dems want their own map (I guarantee they do), they'll have to give up something else (probably locking the Congressional map at 8-3R).

BTW, if anyone wants a copy of the starting point plan with all GOP reps vaporized, just send me an email (my username at gmail).  

[ Parent ]
Yes, but
I remember someone from VA saying how they've agreed to let the House redistrict their own chamber and let the Senate do the same to theirs with the US Congress being a compromise (i.e. probably including a shoring up of Connolly).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Well, that will obviously be subject
to change, but I think the Senate dems have to take that deal and run with it.  
[ Parent ]
Deal
I'd be inclined to accept that arrangement. I like the Dems' long-term prospects in Virginia but the risk of being shut out should things go awry in 2011 is too high.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
NV State Leg.: Census Numbers mean
1 Assembly Seat will have to be moved from the Rurals to Clark County (and possibly 1 from Washoe, but that's 50/50) and 1 Senate Seat will be moved to Clark County.  Can the Dem Legislature use this to help bolster their marginal Senate majority?

http://www.lasvegassun.com/new...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Ralston comments on the change in NV demos.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
He gives the overall urban/rural numbers
Really brings home that Nevada is only going to get bigger and more Democratic.  If Clark keeps being the one with crazy growth, imagine 20 years from NV with one outstate CD and 5-6 Clark County CD's.
[ Parent ]
Yep, yep, yep!
Demographic trends aren't GOPers' best friends here in Nevada. We're becoming more urban and ethnically diverse in Clark, and the rurals are steadily losing their outsized power.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Seems like the rurals have shifted a little to
since Obama came with a thousand votes of winning the 2nd.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I guess that could include Reno/Carson City tho to.


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Yeah.
Also the bulk of NV-02 undoubtedly is Washoe.

OT, but I was there last August around Tahoe on a daytrip from where I was vacationing in CA.  Incline Village, NV must be a beautiful place to live.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Our march in Trenton is going great!
(Is commenting here via Blackberry borrowed from a friend.)  We're even getting notice from Reuters!
http://www.reuters.com/article...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Question Time:
Of the sitting Democratic Governors who do you consider to be most likely to end up on a presidential ticket? List your top five or so choices in order of likelihood.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...

20, Ind, PA-14

Good one
1)Hickenlooper
2)Schweitzer
3)Gregoire
4)O'Malley
5)Patrick

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Gov. Gregoire is about as popular as a bag of flaming dog shit
I'm really not sure what she did wrong - and I'm from the vicinity of Washington, no less - but she was unpopular when she was (barely) elected in 2004, and she's horrendously unpopular now. I'm not even sure she could carry her own state if she were somehow nominated to lead a presidential ticket.

It's strange, because on paper, she looks stellar.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
ok
1. Schweitzer - I think he's plan B if Hillary doesn't run, would also be a great VP for her
2. Cuomo - will need to make his mark as a reformer
3. O'Malley

(gap)

4. Nixon - will be 60 in 2016, not too old
5. Patrick
6. Markell
7. Hickenlooper - will be 64
8. Lynch - will also be 64
9. Malloy - will be 61, might look better after a full term

Everyone else is too old.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I'm surprised
we don't hear more about Lynch. On paper, he seems like the perfect sort of candidate for Democrats. He seems liberal enough to satisfy the base but has the record and private sector background to satisfy those outside the base.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
bleh, he set up Ayotte for Senate
We probably would have lost regardless against a good recruit, but how needless.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, what was that about?
I mean, she crushed Hodes. Like you said, it wouldn't be hard to imagine a loss, but such a big one? I'm not sure why that happened. Nevertheless, I think she will be a top target in 2016, along with Toomey and Kirk.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
and Ron Johnson
He's a dim bulb and won by just 5 against Feingold, who ran a lousy campaign. I think he, Kirk, and Toomey are all toast barring another red wave. Ayotte might stick around, but would probably have to move to the center.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Some great 2016 targets
Maybe the Dems can find some non-stiffs to run against them in the next five friggin years...
[ Parent ]
I
think Kirk doesn't run again. He is close to DOA. I mean in an extremely Republican year against a horribly flawed opponent with the stink of corruption all over him and he barely wins. This comes as the GOP has a blowout in Congress in Illinois. Had it been anyone besides Alexi he would just be a former Congressman right now. If we can get a decent candidate like Madigan (though she'll probably run for Gov in 2014) or Hynes or LG Simon then we'll be fine.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Michelle Obama!
I insist! I want an Obama dynasty. :p

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Considering how nasty the right wing is being to her
just for being the First Lady and trying to encourage people to do positive things like being healthy, I'd be surprised if she would want to pursue a career in politics beyond 2016.  
[ Parent ]
They
are being cruel and plain and simply dumb but I seem to remember the right wing being just as cruel to Clinton. I'm sure Michelle Obama is used to it by now.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't compare her to Hillary
I'd compare her to her husband.  A black woman can't even suggest making breast pumps easier to buy without getting labeled a welfare queen.
[ Parent ]
Virtually nobody
outside the small group of Bachmann-like mental midgets agrees with those who are attacking Michelle Obama over this. In some ways, it's good they are going after her, because it indicates just how pathetically partisan, intellectually inferior, and downright insane they are being. She's one of the most popular public figures in this country, and she's on the side of babies, for Christ's sake.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Hillary put herself out there politically
by heading the effort to reform health care, she was taking an active policy role in the Clinton administration. Michelle hasn't done that.
[ Parent ]
I think that you underestimate the strength
of Michelle Obama! :p But seriously that is kind of a stereotypical thing to say. Women can't handle the pressure of politics. I mean Michelle could very well be that way, but we don't know. I mean she was involved with the Daley administration when she was younger. She essentially provided President Obama with all of his connections in Chicago, like Valerie Jarrett. She kind of created his career maybe without knowing it.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
No, Lynch didn't "set up" anything......
He allowed an ostensibly nonpartisan A.G., with no political history, to remain in her job.  There was never any sign that she was going to be a candidate for high office going forward until after Gregg retired.

No one blames Lynch for Ayotte.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
There is no such thing as a non-partisan AG
Lynch fucked up and every one knew it when she first announced.  Did it matter in the long run, no.  And Ayotte winning meant maintaining the number of women in the Senate so no hurt feelings here.
[ Parent ]
No way
I blame Lynch, and plenty of New Hampshire Dems blame Lynch. He had absolutely no need to re-nominate her as state AG. He had Dem majorities in the state lege and the Executive Council (or whatever that body is called). He could have nominated an actual Democrat who shared Democratic priorities (and senate race aside, on the merits, Ayotte was still a Republican AG who pursued Republican goals in office).

The bottom line is that a Dem governor should always be appointing Dem officials precisely because you never know when you'll get punked like this. But this punking was by no means a shocker, which makes Lynch's behavior even worse. It wasn't just foreseeable; it was to at least some degree actually foreseen.

[ Parent ]
Are you saying when Ayotte was renominated that she was viewed...
...as a potential candidate for high office?  I don't remember her name ever coming up until the Gregg retirement rumors picked up, and that was a couple years later.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It's one of the risks of a "bi-partisan' administration
While I understand the objections, I think the risks are worth it -- and will be worth it again after the R House tries to shut down the Gov. again. The public will almost reflexively believe it's the fault of the Rs.

Yes, Ayotte in NH did benefit. From the other point of view, it may not matter that she wasn't talked up before. The re-appointment gave her bi-partisan cred for higher office that she did not deserve.

OTOH, being part of President Obama's administration doesn't seem to be helping Jon Huntsman.

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that he tried to set anything up, but ...
... this has become a hyper-partisan environment, and in a high profile position in a small state like New Hampshire, when you have a really young and ambitious person, you don't do what he did.  Hell, I don't care if it is retaining appointment to a local sanitation board, Democrats should appoint Democrats.
[ Parent ]
Not hard for me
1. Gov. Martin O'Malley of Maryland.
2. Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana.
3. Gov. John Hickenlooper of Colorado.
4. Gov. Jack Markell of Delaware.
5. Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
And honorable mention...
To Gov. Dannel Malloy of Connecticut. I actually might insert him at #4 since we're including veep prospects; I don't really see him topping the ticket.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Malloy would have to deal with massive amounts of writers
Assuming his name is "Daniel Malloy".

Heck, I thought that until a week before the election.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I thought it was Daniel
Until Tuesday during the special elections I realized it was Dannel.  
[ Parent ]
well I'll be damned.

[ Parent ]
Good call.
He's definitely someone to watch, if only because he didn't run away from the possibility of tax increases and is now trying to enact them. I don't know enough about what he's trying to do to have a firm opinion on anything, but it'll be interesting to see what happens as I try to learn more. Given his state's blue status, I wouldn't read too much into any sort of success, but if he's able to do good things, I could see him going places, particularly since he fully acknowledges that sacrifices will need to be made from all ends but specifically tries to avoid coming across like a jerk as Chris Christie does.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
He was an excellent mayor as well
I remember being very impressed with his resume when he was running against Ned Lamont for the nomination last year.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Fun topic
1) O'Malley
2) Cuomo
3) Schweitzer
4) Markell
5) Hickenlooper
Slim pickins
[ Parent ]
Great minds...
And all that.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I think it is so clear

I think they are two sitting democratic governor that have some chance.

1 A Cuomo
2 M O'Malley

A Cuomo can be a strong candidate and surely is the alone with some chance what can run as sitting governor in 2016. He is and surely will be the strongest democratic governor by far.

I think M O'Malley can have some chance, but I think it is more likely see him as successor of B Mikulski in the senate (2016).

I think the rest would have less chance. Talking about former governors I appreciate B Henry (OK). Far more to the right than me, but loyal democrat and with good political career.

[ Parent ]
I disagree on Gov. Cuomo
Sure, he has the potential to make the race. But the strongest? With Albany's reputation? It would take a miracle for him to walk away from six years of governing New York without that reputation staining him.

There's also a couple shallow factors. First is that Gov. Cuomo is unmarried but cohabiting with his girlfriend (though he is not the only Democratic governor in the country in said living arrangement, I might note), which is a no-no in socially conservative circles, even among traditionally Democratic constituencies like Roman Catholics (of which Cuomo is one; you thought Sen. Kerry took it on the chin for supporting abortion rights?). Second is that he's not a terribly good-looking fellow, which could be unpleasant if he's up there next to Gov. O'Malley, Mayor Booker, and Sen. Gillibrand in those appearance-is-everything debates (complete bullshit though it is).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
he also has to avoid the democratic governor curse
granted i just mean spitzer and patterson, but still.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
If I remember right
the last Gov of NY to actually run for President

was, in modern terminology, teabagged back in '64.

With the possible exception of Mario Cuomo, I don't think there has been a NY Gov who might even have been a credible contender for a major party nomination.

There is a sufficient anti-NY bias in both parties, to present a big hurdle for Andrew Cuomo. Now that NY is somewhat smaller, perhaps that anti-NY Presidential bias will start to go down.

I suspect the Gov of just about any other state would have an easier time than Andrew Cuomo.  

[ Parent ]
Hugh Carey was a real prospect
Cuomo's predecessor. The timing never really worked out for him though. He had just become governor in '76, then Carter held the WH, and by '84 he was old news plus had personal problems such as a failing, tabloid-ready marriage.

Had Ford won in '76, though, Carey would have been a very strong possibility for the Democrats in '80.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think Carey was taken seriously
as a Presidential prospect by anyone except the NY media.

And I think that's been the problem for most NY politicos -- fair or not, most Americans don't believe that anyone from NY could understand or even empathize with their problems.

I know, people talked a lot about John Lindsay -- as both a D and a R.

If I remember right, he had it worse, having been Mayor when people in NYC suggested that their Mayor was the second toughest job in the USA.

I am hopeful that Gillibrand can break that curse, maybe in '20 or '24.

[ Parent ]
Um, there have been a few
"Dewey defeats Turman" referred to New York governor Thomas Dewey. Nelson Rockefeller got as high as Vice President, and he served as New York's governor for a while. And lest we not forget that Franklin Roosevelt, his distant cousin Teddy Roosevelt, and the hapless Martin Van Buren all held the title in their days as well. So there have been plenty of them them could, and did, run for higher office.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
I did say since '64, n/t

[ Parent ]
Was it implied?
"With the possible exception of Mario Cuomo, I don't think there has been a NY Gov who might even have been a credible contender for a major party nomination."

I guess I just assumed you meant "ever." My bad.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Look at the lines before that
I suggested that Rocky was the first victim of teabagging.

and I did specifically note '64.

I probably should have included "since '64" in the Mario sentence. So now I see how my note was not completely clear.

[ Parent ]
Thats not really surprsing
most Democrats elected to the post aren't interesting in the presidency and most republicans are considered to far left.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Tell that to Pataki
He has shifted hard to the right since he thinks he has a future on the national stage for some reason.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yeah but I mean hes a running joke.
If the republicans won the White House they might be nice enough to appoint him to some simple post but thats close as he is getting.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
What "curse"? It's not like they were victims of circumstance!......
They were victims of their own stupid decisions, personally and politically!  It's not like they had to make unpopular judgement calls or were victims of things out of their control.

All Andrew has to do is behave himself, and he'll avoid Spitzer's and Paterson's fates.  Not that he'll automatically be popular, that he won't have tough times, but just not being stupid goes a long way.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Spitzer was already unpopular
before the prostitution ring thing blew up.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Based on what? I don't remember that at all. He was doing fine...
...until his scandal was revealed, as I recall.  I don't remember his job approvals having any problem.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
He had a 37% approval rating in December 2007.
[ Parent ]
Oooooh, OK, I looked up the old SUSA polls and see what you mean!......
He went underwater in fall '07, the scandal broke in late winter '08.  My memory fails me, I didn't remember him having trouble pre-Hookergate.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
NY
Yea it was sad.  I was so happy when he got elected.  He went to Albany ready to hit the ground running and both parties in Albany stonewalled him.  The Post had front pages hammering him every single day for months and "Troopergate" started to hit thanks to them.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
Yep
Spitzer was doing about as bad as it's possible to do, given a good economy (at the time) and no major scandals. (There was Bruno-gate, but I'm not sure how big that was.) My view - and the view of quite a few others - is that a major reason he couldn't gut it out and try to hang on after the prostitution revelations is because he simply didn't have any friends left by that point. He had managed to alienate an impressive number of people in little over a year.

And I can't say I'm surprised by that at all.

[ Parent ]
Cuomo has been accused of public concubinage
...by an ecclesiastical lawyer and that lawyer has advised the Church that Cuomo be denied holy communion.

It's only an opinion from one person, not a determination of an ecclesiastical court, but it's the kind of thing that get around and just generally looks bad with people who might care about such things.

[ Parent ]
Cuomo's beloved by moderates and Independents right now, but he has serious problems w/ "the base"
As I mentioned over at RRH, I spoke to a chairman of the Working Families Party for an article I'm writing on the state budget. He suggested that progressives feel so alienated by Cuomo's budget cuts and "behavior" that they might well be looking for an alternative candidate to support in 2014. If this is how "progessives" really feel about Cuomo, I cant fathom him faring well in a presidential primary.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
he has a...
77% approval rating (or something very close to that).

The way you describe you conversation makes me think of what liberals on blogs said about Obama's approval ratings at around the time the tax deal was made.  Read those blogs, and you'd think his liberal support was caving, while in reality, his liberal support remained steady for the most part, and in some polls increased.

[ Parent ]
The problem is
that Cuomo just really isn't all that exciting. There's no part of the Democratic Party that loves him in the way that young voters and African Americans loved Obama. Cuomo's base of support is wide but not deep.  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
You don't have to be loved to win......
Big mistake to see things through the lens of 2008, when we had two 800-lb. gorillas who had massive adulation from many millions.

Most major party nominees, including plenty who get elected President, have no loud emotional bond with their own party.  Cuomo is in no worse shape than any of 'em.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yup, the "left" is sometimes an echo chamber within an echo chamber......
Rank-and-file liberals and other rank-and-file Democrats are much more flexible and forgiving than the netroots and other activists.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It'll be interesting
to see how he handles budget matters once it's the economy is stronger and it's easier for him to deal with revenue issues.

Now, while it's hard to say exactly what the issues in 2016 or beyond might be, I'm sure some sort of economic development matter will be one of the biggest. If I were Cuomo's advisers, I'd tell him to focus on trying to strengthen the upstate economy. That's far easier said than done, of course, and I'm not sure what it would take, but if he can point to some concrete examples of a place like Binghamton, Albany, or Buffalo experiencing economic growth because of something he did, it'd give him something huge to talk about all over the Midwest and probably the Southwest, too--hell, probably the entire country. And if he's got an ace like that up his sleeve, then I'm not sure much else matters.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It'll be interesting
to see how he handles budget matters once it's the economy is stronger and it's easier for him to deal with revenue issues.

Now, while it's hard to say exactly what the issues in 2016 or beyond might be, I'm sure some sort of economic development matter will be one of the biggest. If I were Cuomo's advisers, I'd tell him to focus on trying to strengthen the upstate economy. That's far easier said than done, of course, and I'm not sure what it would take, but if he can point to some concrete examples of a place like Binghamton, Albany, or Buffalo experiencing economic growth because of something he did, it'd give him something huge to talk about all over the Midwest and probably the Southwest, too--hell, probably the entire country. And if he's got an ace like that up his sleeve, then I'm not sure much else matters.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I mean the strongest between the current sitting governors
The question just was about them.

I think A Cuomo only would bid if H Clinton run not. But going to the race, I think he would do a decent bid (not a 1% in the primary).

The issue of living with his girlfriend without be married... Do you imagine other democrats critizizing him cause of this? I think all them would support him against the catholic hierarchy on that. This seems a issue of 60 years ago...

As catholic, I just support A Cuomo on this issue of his girlfriend. I dislike strongly this type of pressure from the catholic hierarchy. And I give not money to them cause of it (and other issues).

[ Parent ]
Sure, I agree with you
For me, it's a non-issue. But I'd have to say I think Govs. Schweitzer, O'Malley, Hickenlooper, Malloy, and maybe Markell are likelier to make the ticket in 2016 than Gov. Cuomo, and that's just one of the reasons. I think being from the New York political machine will be the biggest drag on him.

There's also the fact that if O'Malley and Sen. Gillibrand both enter the race, or if Secy. Clinton does (though she insists she won't, and I tend to believe she's really looking forward to retiring to the private sector in 2012 or 2013), that will suck a lot of the air out of the room in terms of his base. O'Malley is Catholic, like Cuomo, of course; Gillibrand and Clinton are both New Yorkers.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I suspect Sandra Lee has more name rec than Andrew Cuomo
She's something of a minor celeb, as the host of at least two Food Network shows -- and people have their own positive and negative opinions of her (I personally find her to be eccentric, in a stepford wife, change the decor every week kind of way.)

Unknown -- would Andrew Cuomo be evaluated nationally based on Sandra Lee's reputation?

[ Parent ]
More on Chris Lee and why he left so fast:
He may have sought affairs with two transexual women.
http://gawker.com/#!5769037/th...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Chris Lee needs instructions on USING THE INTERNET
Specifically on how to be anonymous.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Oh, gawd. Just what we need...
More misunderstanding of transgender people and the transgender experience. Why must these "closet freak" Republicans make things that much harder for the rest of us queer folk?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I doubt anyone will care about
what he tried to do, so I don't think it's going to make a difference for gay folks one way or another.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
But that Gawker piece...
Reinforced all the horrible and false stereotypes that transgender activists have been fighting for decades, mainly that they're all "nasty tranny hookers". It's an insult to all the transgender people struggling to be accepted by all the rest of us while they actually hold down regular lives as regular working people.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I didn't read the piece.
I might later, but I don't have to read it to believe you that it's as bad as it says. My point wasn't to defend what it said but rather to say that it won't have any effect because so few people will read it, and those who do probably won't care enough. He's already resigned, and it wasn't as if he was a major figure in any way to begin with. It's a footnote's footnote in the political history of this time.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
That would explains a lot


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Should have said "explain"


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Who wants to be Mayor...
Of the most fabulous city on earth? Today seems to be the day to release new TV ads here, and I'll be posting something shortly on Las Vegas' hot, hot, hot municipal election this spring.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
IN-SoS!
There probably isn't going to be an election for this one until November of 2014, but Charlie White's still under investigation for voter fraud, and he's still making an ass out of himself, so anything can happen.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
That
one makes me want to vomit. I bet if voters actually knew what he did he would have lost but they just vote R. Same with my counties prosecuting attorneys election. People just voted straight tickets.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
down ticket races
In most states almost anything below governor, senator, or AG usually turns into generic R v. generic D.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Fill me in:
what did he do?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
It's a bit convoluted

But the basic gist of the problem is that he voted in the 2010 primary while registered to an address he no longer lived at. Technically, that's voter fraud, but for most folks, it could be assumed to be a simple mistake.

However, in White's case, he wasn't just some hapless citizen, but a member of the local town council and head of the Hamilton County Republican party. And when White moved away from the address he was registered at to his new one, he moved out of the district he represented on the town council, which means it was no longer legal for him to hold the position on the council that he had been elected to. The Dems argue that White was aware of this, since as a town councilman he participated in the drawing of council districts, and as Republican chairman, he handled the recruitment of candidates and presumably was familiar with making sure local candidates met the residency requirements of the offices they were running for!

 White, in fact, didn't resign as a town councilman until some Dems went to the local press with the details of his residency troubles, several months after he moved. The big question is whether White was knowingly collecting a paycheck for holding a position he legally couldn't, but that's hard to prove. Less hard to prove is whether he committed voting fraud by not updating his registration (which, of course, would likely be proof that he knew he was out of his district). So, currently, a grand jury is investigating the whole thing.

As a side note, despite this story bubbling up in the Hoosier press before the election, White won in the SoS election last year, 57% to 37%, with a Libertarian taking about 6%. For reference, IN-Sen. candiate Richard Mourdock's much touted margin of victory over the Dem candidate in the Treasurer's race was 62% to 37%, with no other candidate in the race. But, as we all know, Mourdock's victory is indicative of his strength in the Hoosier state, and had nothing to do with the year being overwhelmingly Republican. And stuff. 



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I don't know...
If anyone's every broached this subject before, but for all the talk of Brian Schweitzer running for president in 2016 has anyone ever talked about him running for Montana's open house seat in 2012? I know it'd seem at first like a step down, but he's already shown an interest in congress (i.e. Senate run in 2000) and he wouldn't be the first governor in recent times to do it (Bill Janklow and Mike Castle come to mind). Plus in these one-seat states the at-large congressman is basically in some ways like the state's third senator, and if Obama wins reelection (or even if he doesn't) I have a hard time seeing Schweitzer keeping himself in the public eye long enough to build the national profile needed for a presidential run being the governor of a state with such a small population.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)
Maybe, maybe not.
Unless there's a change of vice president at some point or unless some previous heavyweight like Hillary Clinton decides to run, there's no obvious big candidate on the horizon for the Democrats. This isn't to say that there aren't good candidates or that one big person won't come along, of course, but if there isn't one at that time, I think the fact that the race would be wide open as well as the relative ease of raising one's profile and raising money over the Internet could make him a contender.

If he's leaving as a popular governor who kept his state in strong condition, perhaps it's even better that he's out of government entirely. If he's in Congress, he'll have at least a few, but more likely many, tough votes to defend.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Is it possible he works out a deal with Baucus?
Given that Baucus is now terribly unpopular and is up for reelection in 2014, it seems that they could work out a deal where Baucus resigns and Schweitzer runs for his senate seat. Baucus has served for a while now, he will be 72 in 2014, he must now that unless his approval ratings recover he will likely lose reelection, and he seems like the kind of person who has a very well paying lobbying job lined up that he would love to do. It would be a great switch for us, removing a very vulnerable incumbent and replacing them with a very popular candidate who would likely win. Of course, Schweitzer could easily make that run from the house, too.  

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Not a bad suggestion.
Of course, it's probably too early to start thinking about making the switch. Plus, a few weeks ago, people here were talking up some female candidate from one of the more well known and well regarded political families in the state who would have supposedly made a great candidate for the House seat.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
i agree, but
two problems are a possible admin appointment in 13 if obama wins re-election (or a token dem in a republican administration, probably romney or pawlenty) or a 16 prez run.  

while i could see schweitzer at department of energy or interior, i think obama pulled too many potential candidates into his admin in 2009.  imagine if napilatano had stayed governor, she might be a good senate candidate in that hypothetical universe.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Sounds interesting, but..
I was thinking more about playing offense in 2012 than that far ahead, though I'm sure Senator Schweitzer sounds a lot better to the governor then Representative Schweitzer. I've just been amazed how little talk there has been about MT-AL; seems like a decent pick-up opportunity (at least no worse then CO-3 or NV-2 if Heller runs for the Senate, or what those districts will be after redistricting). Daines just doesn't seem like that imposing of a candidate, at least to my non-Montanan perception.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)
[ Parent ]
Attorney General Jim Hood for Senate?
I know very little about Mississippi politics, but assuming he's reelected this year, could he be a potential senate candidate? Is he already? Or is he basically the sort of Democrat that would be more comfortable as a Republican, like Buddy Caldwell in Louisiana?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
Jim Hood is far more
like a Drew Edmondson than a Buddy Caldwell.  Highly unlikely to switch and as far "left" as a statewide Democrat can be in MS.  If he gets elected this year (which is likely), it would be a mistake to run for Senate.  Ronnie Musgrove ran in 2008 and lost badly.  MS is even more discriminate about who they send to DC than who they elect for state office.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Why would it be a mistake?
If he's reelected this year, he wouldn't be up again until 2015. Wouldn't he be able to recover from a loss by then?

And while Musgrove didn't really come all that close, he didn't lose badly. In fact, he seems to have gotten closer than any Democrat had in a long time. That's not saying much, considering he still lost by ten points, but it could easily have been more. Perhaps Mississippi is as bad as you say about which guys they send to D.C., but he's not a long-serving statewide incumbent, so maybe there's an opening of some sort.

That would most clearly come in the form of Wicker not being the nominee. I'm not sure how big the threat of a Teabagger challenge is--my guess is not very, but you never know--but it wouldn't hurt to be ready. If Obama is likely to improve on his numbers in the state, and Hood's baseline would be a three to four points more than Obama's would be, perhaps he could secure a narrow victory.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Because
he might resign to run for Senate, and that would be a double whammy.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He might, but why would he?
Does he need to?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Given what happened to Folsom
And the utter bankruptcy of the rest of the Democratic statewide ticket(they look to be leaving two-thirds of the statewide offices uncontested, and they have failed to challenge more than one of the party switchers in the legislature) I would be hesitant to put his race at anything more than lean Dem. It will be an extremely low-turnout election this fall, especially among minority voters, and that could well be fatal.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Probably not
If Thad Cochran doesn't opt for another term in 2014, then I could see him making a run then, but as far as running against an incumbent, I don't think he'd go for that.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
You don't think he could run in 2012 and
2014 if it doesn't work out in 2012?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
He could, but it would be better to wait
If he's re-elected as AG, that means he has some capital, which should be saved for an open seat opportunity, running against an incumbent is a long shot.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
AR-01 & 02
Still waiting for Dave's app to include Arkansas data so I can make my own "plausable" maps of the districts.

I saw a few maps from Red Racing Horses but I believe that they're using old data, and aren't using county splitting (which we will be using this time around).

Anyway I'm not sure who Griffin will face as a challenger.

Former State Senator and Lt. Governor-Candidate Shane Broadway (D) has a significant appeal from his home county of Saline in the 2nd district. Which could make him a good candidate for Congress if the 2nd district stays intact. Also I have heard faint whisperings of Bill Halter (D) in the 2nd also....


By 2012
the Dems need to learn that they need to work for their seats and that Arkansas took another big step closer to being a fully two-party state last time (the first big step being Huckabee's governorship).  Once they got that down, they won't lose much more.  Heck, in 2010, Beebe won EVERY county, so it's not like the state is turning its back on Ark Dems in some massive realignment.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Right I think the question tho is if there acceptable
for federal office in Arkansas any more.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Probably, if they strike the right chord.
Someone said that Mark Pryor is now being much more diligent with his constituent services and outreach than he used to.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Regarding Mark Pryor, and I was the one who said that...
He didn't campaign at all in 2008. There are some parts of the state that haven't heard of him since 2002. So it's a combination of him watching Lincoln go down in flames, and the fact that he needs to increase his low name ID and make sure Democrats know that he is "a conservative in-touch guy."

I have heard rumors that Pryor is trying to get rid of Griffin through redistricting. It seems logical he would focus on him since he represents a must-win district for a Democrat statewide. A 2-1-1 map is probably the best Democrats can do this time around.

He would have lost in 2010, though, it would not have been a Lincoln-style blowout. But he has four years to build a voter registration operation, and Pryor has nearly 2 million dollars on hand.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Dems going the distance
I agree that Arkansas Dems can do it. right now I would consider the 2nd, 4th, and 1st swing districts. Not sure who will oppose Crawford. There are a few options from West Memphis and Jonesboro to oppose him. Even though Rep. Crawford (AR-01) supports Ag in the area, I think he's going to want to cut too much of needed federal programs. And he may find himself in trouble there.
[ Parent ]
Yes, but
Beebe had very weak opponent in 2010, and, what could be even more important - he is anything, but liberal...
[ Parent ]
I don't see ANY way Obama wins re-election
with these half-ass waves cherry-picked by New York Magazine.  Your liberal media at its finest.  

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Very true.
I mean, how is he going to face a manly man like Mitch Daniels?

http://online.wsj.com/article/...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
God, how stupid do they look printing that.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
People who have difficult jobs don't run around looking happy all the time
And most people don't pay attention and don't care about how the President wave. I don't even get what the point of that article is.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
my guess is
They wanted to do something between making a joke and starting a self-perpetuating joke meme.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
I
was lucky enough to get an Obama handshake and wave. The handshake was firm and official and he didn't look annoyed or anything like that when he gave a wave in my direction.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Has anyone filed impeachment proceedings yet?


20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)
[ Parent ]
Newt is announcing soon...
Just wait.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
How cute
He thinks he can win.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Gingrich already floated that specter.
http://thinkprogress.org/2011/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He'll say anything to get attention.
Honestly, what does it say about someone's political acumen when the only other Republicans out there with the same message as you are people like Ben Stein and Bryan Fischer?

As noted constitutional scholar Gerald Ford once said, "An impeachable offenses is whatever a majority of the House of Representatives considers it to be at a given moment in history."

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
I still can't get over
just how pointless and dumb that article is.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I used to read Star magazine on a weekly basis
I remember seeing many comparable stories.  "The Angie and Brad arm holding positioning", "The which couple at the Lakers game always sits and looks bored with each other versus the other couple laughing and having a good time."

Agreed, Obama is never going to get re-elected with a wave like that.

[ Parent ]
My wife SUBSCRIBES to Star!......
Seriously.

But she likes the vapid celebrity gossip.

Problem is, too many people anymore are equally drawn to titillation in political coverage.  This stupid hand-waving story fails even in that regard, but that's the audience they're aiming for, the unserious news/political junkies who number in the many millions and are drawn coverage of politics the same as celebrity tabloids cover the entertainment industry.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I
was at the chiropractors the other day and in the waiting room there was this woman reading a tabloid rag about how Obama was using coke and all this other stuff and she kept on engaging me telling me how she voted for him and she just couldn't believe he was a drug user. I told her she shouldn't believe everything in a tabloid but I don't think she listened. So yeah there are some stupid gullible people out there that believe everything they read.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
North Dakota Senator 2012
Do we have any hope in this race?  Is Earl Pomeroy too flawed or unpopular, even if he was interested?

68, Dem-leaning indie, MI-8
Yes.
It depends on the GOP candidate.  Right now, there's only one.  However, the Dems have some possibly strong candidates.  Heidi Heitkemp for one.  Also, that guy who is the rural affairs Director for the USDA.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Jasper Schneider
I was confusing him with Roger Johnson, who has said he wasn't interested, and thought he was a lot older. He's actually quite young. I'm not sure how much of a drawback that is, however. As I've mentioned a few times, Kristin Hedger ran in 2006 against Al Jaeger, the Secretary of State, and got within eight points. That's not all that close, but she was 26(!) at the time. She's obviously now older, and perhaps she could get a serious look.  She's involved in her family's manufacturing business in the state, so she could easily adopt that "I'm a business woman, not a career politician" line.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I don't think he's flawed.
He was probably a victim of the wave more than anything else. Of course, it doesn't seem like he's interested.

There hasn't been a great deal of news about this race in the last few weeks, on either side. The Republicans have bigger names than we do, but I'm far less worried about a name candidate than I am about devoting the right amount of resources to the race.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
RRH think not
Clearly the Republican will have the advantage but seems a little premature to me. They don't have another Hoeven.
[ Parent ]
Can't blame 'em, they see it the same as we see...
...Massachusetts.

Which is to say, yeah assuming one party has it locked up is the normal thing to do, until you actually lose the seat which can actually happen!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Not sure anybody would call MA "Solid D"
On the whole thought their ratings were quite reasonable otherwise.  
[ Parent ]
I'm comparing ND now to the MA special......
The seat after Kennedy died was viewed solid D, which is why is got little coverage until Brown started surging.

It would be viewed solid D again if, say, Brown retired; that he won the seat wouldn't make us think a R would win it again.

I totally get where the RRH crowd are coming from on ND next year.  It's not enough for us to run against "not Hoeven," we need a good candidate in our own right, we need the Republicans to nominate a stumbler, and we need Obama to do well in the state which realistically requires a GOP Presidential nominee who is either fundamentally weak or runs a poor campaign.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
But it's not as though North Dakota hasn't been electing Democrats before
I mean really, before 2010 both senate seats and the house seat were held by Democrats.

Really, I assume that the Republicans are more likely than not to win, but North Dakota isn't as reflexively Republican as Massachusetts is Democratic, I think calling ND-Sen right now "solid" or even "likely" before we know who is running is a bit too much IMHO.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Well I'll allow that "solid" R is ridiculous. But I can see a reasonable argument...
...for saying "likely" R based on the state's natural partisan tilt combined with the weak Dem bench, compared to a strong GOP bench.  That's enough for me to think it can be called likely.  If you want to split hairs further, I would say "leans R/tilt likely R," a variation on Stu Rothenberg's "tossup/tilt" hybrid rating.

Again, we need to thread a needle to hold that seat, and the Republicans don't.  First, we need a good candidate who campaigns well; it doesn't have to be a known quantity, but if it's an unknown figure it has to be someone who unexpectedly is a very strong campaigner, like Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin wowed everyone with her strong challenge to Bill Janklow in 2002 (before he resigned in disgrace and she won the open special in 2004).  Second, we need the Republican to have problems of some kind, such as being weakened in a vicious primary or making missteps in the general; note that Janklow still beat Herseth-Sandlin, so missteps by Team Red are required.  Third, since it's a Presidential year, we need Obama to do reasonably well to minimize the amount of ticket-splitting the Democratic nominee needs to win.  Perhaps we can pull a rabbit out of the hat without the third condition being met, but the first two are non-negotiable, or we lose.

Yes we've done well in federal races in North Dakota for a long time, but that disguises that the state really does have a natural red tilt that makes it tough for us when a seat is open.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Fair points all around
And I can at least see why Likely isn't a horrible position to start from, but I still feel some of the rankings have started out being way too pessimistic for Democrats and way too optimistic for Republicans (not a strike against RRH either, that's something I feel about Charlie Cook, NM-Sen is a toss-up while AZ-Sen is automatically Likely R, really?)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Agree on the metaoutlook, pundits wrongly are seeing things through 2010 lens......
No doubt the AZ and NM juxtaposition is ridiculous.  NM and AZ cannot legitimately be more than one step apart, and perhaps no steps apart, for an open seat, so that likely R in AZ translates to lean D or likely D in NM...but not tossup.  The R bench in NM is quite weak, and that the GOP was able to propel a local official like Martinez to the Governorship in a wave year disguises that reality.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I'll defend it with a lot of what DCCyclone said above me
We were divided between Likely and Safe R on this one, so it's not at the same safeness level as, say, Wyoming. The deciding factor was the lack of an obvious Democratic candidate who could win this race coupled with the strength of the Republican field. Democrats have Dorgan and Pomeroy, and Heitkamp on a lower tier than them, but none of them look likely to run. Republicans have one statewide elected official in the race already (Kalk) and an even stronger candidate, Rep. Rick Berg, likely to run as well. The most likely scenario is probably Berg against another Tracy Potter-type Democrat, with Dems focusing their energy on the House seat. It won't be Hoeven's 75-25 margin, but 62-38 seems logical.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I disagree about the margin.
Based on the relative dearth of major candidates for the Democrats, the Republican candidate is favored right now. It's far too early to give up, of course, but regardless, without a Hoeven-like candidate, there's really no reason to think the margin will be as lopsided as you think. I'd say it's more like 55/56 to 45/44 percent. I suspect each candidate will secure his base pretty well, winning at least 90 percent of his party's vote. My guess at the margin gave the Republican 60 percent of Independents, but that could fairly easily go down to 55 percent even if the Republican runs a good campaign.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
For the most part
I agreed with the hierarchy of the RRH picks. I would have just leaned a level or two differently on most of them.

And I found it to be a reasonable difference in perspective.

[ Parent ]
I'm going to apply for the redistricting commission
for Minneapolis city council and park board districts.  Luckily, past political involvement is not a disqualifier but I'll probably not make myself sound too educated on the subject.  Applications are due March 25th.
Isn't that for Minneapolis residents?
And really, how much difference is it going to make by drawing the city council districts? Gordon will be the green party candidate representing The U, and everyone else is a liberal DFLer.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
It's something to throw on the ole resume
And I'm going to be applying for grad school so having served on the commission would look really good.  But when I saw "no partisanship" and it being Minneapolis, I kind of chuckled.  I suppose I could make a FL-22 style seat to squeeze in GOPers, they've gotta be somewhere.
[ Parent ]
I kind of doubt it, actually.
The areas around the lakes are slightly less liberal, but still overwhelmingly "latte liberals." You could maybe try Northeast, but that is full of the older, labor kind of Democrats, but it's possible they are to the right of the city as a whole. My best guess would be to try and draw a district that contains only lake front property, which is theoretically possible given water continuity and the canals that connect the lakes in South Minneapolis. That would probably still be a Democratic seat, but less so than say, the 4th ward which is all U students.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
VA-Sen
Tim Kaine has no idea  what he is going to do.  I starting to think we'd be better off if he didn't run and Perriello did, since it appears he actually wants to be a senator.  Hopefully Kaine decides one way or the other next week.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
Seems increasingly clear that Perriello is the better choice here
At least, it seems that way to me.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
perriello's only 36
what about a compromise where kaine's a senator for a term, like Webb and punchinello runs in 2018.  Of course there's the argument of why should punchinello have to wait a term when kaine's lukewarm about a bid, but that goes back to the arguments of Kaine's strengths which have been discussed already.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
What's the point of a compromise when Kaine doesn't seem like he wants to run to begin with?
The less time he spends dithering, the sooner we can get someone in the race that actually wants this job.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
that assumes it's a given he won't run.
I agree, if Kaine's at 90-100% against running he should say so and let the field materialize of its own accord.  What I was trying to say earlier, is that I believe he will decide to begrudgingly run.  on the one hand it will give us a candidate and perhaps senator who doesn't want the job. on the other hand, he has the experience, name recognition and Rolodex to campaign better than punchinello unless his hearts REALLY not into it.

finally, i'd like to mention that punchinello is not meant to be a derogatory name toward periello, it's a super mario reference and is easier for me to spell.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Why wait until 2018?
Why not 2013, if Perriello wants to try for governor? I'm currently leaning towards Perriello in the Kaine v. Perriello thing, but if Kaine gets to run in 2012 then I think Perriello should definitely be our gubernatorial candidate in 2013. I know that people think T-Mac sort of "deserves" to be the nominee as he didn't get it last time, but I think he would be an absolutely terrible candidate and should be avoided at all costs.  

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Kaine seems genuinely torn
Sounds more a case reluctance to leave the DNC rather than not wanting to be a Senator. Give him time. There is plenty of it.
[ Parent ]
When asked directly if he wants to be in the Senate...
All he says is, "People keep telling me the Senate is important."

Tom Perriello should go ahead and announce and just say he'll get out if Chairman Kaine enters.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Strongly Disagree.
First off I want to point out that I love Tom Perriello. However I recognize that Kaine is a better candidate. Just because Kaine has reservations about running does not mean that if he did pull the trigger he would not give it 110%. Kaine still has plenty of time to make up his mind, it is still extremely early on and he would have no trouble fundraising and making a race of it. He has a higher profile than Perriello and more connections and I think he would stand the best chance in the GE. He left office popular and I hate to say it but Perriello left on a loss, even if the margin was better than expected, and he would have to spend much more time getting known statewide than Kaine. I'm not saying Perriello wouldn't be a good backup option if Kaine decides against the run but given the choice between the two I would definitely pick Kaine who is equally as progressive and, in my view, more electable.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
You make some sound points
I mainly just disagree with Kaine being more electable. I think the only real advantage he has over Perriello is name rec which is of course a considerable thing. I don't consider Kaine to be another Mark Warner in terms of electoral strength.

Sure, there's a lot of time for Kaine to make up his mind, but George Allen's already in the race. There's no reason to give Allen a head start, even if all he's doing right now is campaigning at local Republican functions and fundraisers.

I just don't see why, if Kaine enjoys his work at the DNC so much, he'd be dragged out of that job and into a Senate race where we already have a pretty good prospective candidate. Honestly, I think the pressure on Kaine from the White House and other sources is more because he's one of their guys, instead of being a grassrootsy populist like Perriello. And if that is the case, there's nothing wrong with that. If I was one of the President's advisers, I'd make the same calculation.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Either that or he's dragging things out to keep the press interested.

[ Parent ]
Whatever the reason,
he's taking his time, and that's not exactly a bad thing. It's entirely possible there's something going on in his life that we don't know about that might make it hard for him to be a candidate, but even if there isn't, him announcing two months from now probably isn't very different from him announcing six months from now. He's already got statewide recognition and would likely have no problem raising money. And if he enters, he almost certainly clears the field.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
CA-06: If Woolsey retires, Assemblyman Jared Huffman (D) will run.
http://www.petaluma360.com/art...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Is he that environmentalist candidate
people spoke of?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
yes


18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Wouldnt be surprised if it's a sign of things to come
I spose all good things must come to an end,
[ Parent ]
We'll see how far he goes...
Should Woolsey decide to retire. I've already been hearing grumblings from activists there that he's "not progressive enough" for them, but I'm really wondering if the CA Netroots will want to step it up for Norman Solomon (an antiwar activist who's also hinted at running should Woolsey retire). Perhaps State Senator Noreen Evans (D-Santa Rosa) will consider, but she just got elected there and may be satisfied legislating from the majority in Sacramento.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Montana Gov. Schweitzer
I have seen Governor Schweitzer on talk shows several times, including on "Hardball" the other day.  He is so calm and confident, and very well grounded.  He and GOP Chair Sue Lowden of Nevada were being questioned on the recent events in Wisconsin.   She of course thought  the entire Wisconsin situation was a needed conversation, as if demoralizing and dehumanizing teachers is the basis of a healthy debate.  Gov. Schweitzer, on the other hand repeatedly talked about how his state of Montana had a surplus, and that of course public unions should have collective bargaining rights.  He also repeatedly talked about how Wall Street bankers and financiers created the economic mess that we are in, workers didn't, and yet the workers were being asked to take the blame, and the bankers and financiers aren't even being asked to contribute to cleaning up the mess.  He doesn't come across as a silly liberal, but rather as a common sense leader who knows how to bring people together and get the job done.  I really hope he seeks higher office.  I would definitely work on his campaign, something I have never done before.  If he starts in the US Senate or just goes for the presidency, either one is great.  I do, of course, see the advantage of him running for Senate in 2014, if Baucus steps aside, in that it helps him get some more experience.    
He also said
that Walker "cut his own throat" by making the public workforce his enemy, backing up by saying how it was misguided it is for any executive to backstab their own employees.

Schweitzer has lots of potential.  He's populist, but very level-headed.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
I concur
He's easily my top potential candidate for 2016.

A ticket led by Gov. Schweitzer and backed up by a Northeastern liberal like Mayor Booker, Sen. Gillibrand, Gov. O'Malley, Sen. Whitehouse, or Gov. Malloy would be formidable.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Nah
Clinton/Schweitzer.  Now that's a mother fucking ticket.
[ Parent ]
I just don't think she'll run
It's the Schweitzer/Gillibrand ticket that has my attention right now. If Secy. Clinton runs, that's fine, but I think her time has come and gone.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Long gone, time to move on
I can't see her having any chance anyway, especially if the Republicans ever find a decent candidate.
[ Parent ]
heh
If Hillary won't run, put mini-Hillary in the #2 slot...

Seriously, I think Gillibrand would be a good VP for Schweitzer, as she:

1. is somewhat to his left but not far enough to scare anybody.
2. adds east/west balance.
3. seems to enjoy campaigning and does well in public appearances.
4. would probably work well with at least the Senate.
5. would be seen as a plausible president after ~8 years in the Senate.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Exactly right...
On all counts. She would add liberal cred without being seen as a flaming leftist a la Russ Feingold or John Edwards. She's from a populous, industrialized Eastern state while Gov. Schweitzer is from a less populated, agricultural Western state. She's a bang-up campaigner and fundraiser. She has served in both houses of Congress and has strong relationships with important members of both (Sens. Reid and Schumer; Reps. Pelosi, Giffords, and Wasserman Schultz; etc.). She'll have the experience by 2016, certainly, to be seen as a credible first-in-line, second-in-command to the presidency. And she's telegenic and charismatic in a way that I tend to think would complement Schweitzer's folksy, populist style well; she's an attractive, well-spoken woman who has proven equally comfortable upstate and downstate back in New York, she has a gracious and relaxed manner that has made her a favorite of interviewers, and she has a clear command of the issues that has combined with her well-connectedness to make her probably the most influential freshman senator currently serving.

Quite frankly, if I were a Republican strategist looking ahead to 2016 - and not to get too ahead of ourselves here, but pragmatically, I think it's probably smart to at least start thinking hard about 2016 if you're a Republican - I would be shitting my pants over the idea of a Schweitzer/Gillibrand ticket - especially because the much-touted Sen. Rubio has vanished from the national stage since winning last year and the highly praised Gov. Haley came within a few points of being upset in the same state, same cycle, where 1990s budget surplus architect then-Rep. Spratt was blown out of the water by a Tea Party Republican.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I actually think Clinton will run in 2016 and again lose the nomination
Reminds me of when fellow New Yorker Geraldine Ferraro ran for the U.S. Senate in '92 and lost the Democratic primary to Robert Abrams by 1%. In the years to follow, there was speculation over whether she'd run again and she did, she started out the overwhelming front-runner, but she just couldn't muster a fresh message. She was only running b/c of the narrow '92 margin. In fact, she lost the '98 nomination by 2 to 1 to Schumer. I kinda anticipate the same for Hillary on the presidential scale, though I'll certainly vote for her.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
If Secretary Clinton
runs again (which I believe she will) she will make sure she wins the nomination. There is a lot of good will towards her in the Democratic base after the 2008 convention. Plus a lot of her supporters will believe it is her turn. She thought she had it in the bag in 2008 and lost. If she runs in 2016 it won't happen again. The only reason I think she will run again is that I think she is a devoted public servant and wants to be involved in anyway possible.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I caught the tail end of him
on The NewsHour in a segment that also featured Mitch Daniels. I remember Daniels taking a few swipes at unions and Schweitzer snapping right back, without actually appearing to do so. It was very nice to watch, even if it was only for a few minutes.

Speaking purely on political terms, he seems like he'd be a fantastic candidate. He appears folksy enough to talk to those outside of upper echelon circles but has the sort of background and particular interest (specifically, in clean energy) that would probably cream the shorts of upper class, well educated people the Democrats will need to clean up with.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
2012?
I agree about Schweitzer being a great presidential candidate for 2016, though I worry he might get crowded out like Bill Richardson was in a field with bigger names, despite his experience. Schweitzer/Gillibrand, as someone mentioned below, would be an awesome ticket.

You mentioned Schweietzer for Senate in 2014, but I keep wondering about him for 2012. He's term-limited, and the House seat is open, so he could run for it, like Mike Castle did in DE. Or perhaps a better option, Tester is facing a tough race, and if DSCC thought it best, maybe he could strategically retire and have Schweitzer run in his place?


[ Parent ]
Just got my signatures
Went door to door today and got the 10 (plus a few more) needed to get on the ballot. I'm very excited. While I'm a massive underdog, and the seat is minor, its cool that I can impact the discussion locally with my candidacy.  

18, Dem, PA-7
what are you applying for?


19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
[ Parent ]
Just local stuff
Running for Ward Commish in Ward 1 in my town (in Delco, PA)

18, Dem, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Good Luck.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Seconded


Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Thanks to both of you!
I'll need it. Delco is slowly breaking but my particular town has been slow to adapt.  

18, Dem, PA-7
[ Parent ]
You're 17; I love it!
Good luck!  Keep us thoroughly updated!
[ Parent ]
The Pew Hispanic Center
In a perfect world race would not matter when it comes to politics or anything else but we do not live in a perfect world. Since the world is not perfect, the recent Census releases got me thinking about the Countries changing demographics and the effect they will have on future elections. I stumbled on a wonderful resource for demographics, especially Hispanic demographics, The Pew Hispanic Center. With a little digging you can find info on the population by state, age, race, citizenship etc.

http://pewhispanic.org/

I am sure a lot of people here have seen the site but for those who have not and are interested in such things I thought I would provide a link.

BTW I may post something more in depth latter but for now I will just say the voting eligible Hispanic population is going to explode over the next decade.



"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

MI-Gov
Still very new to politics, and only in his second month, Michigan Governor Rick Snyder still has a lot of folks who haven't made up their mind about "Rick Michigan"s -- as we call him here in Michigan because of his yard signs -- job approval, but the turmoil in the Great Lakes, lately, is making up people's minds, for them...

Gov. Rick Snyder's negative job rating has crept up in a new poll. Many voters are still making up their minds about the governor.

Thirty-seven percent of 600 likely voters surveyed statewide in a Feb. 12-17 EPIC-MRA poll gave Snyder a positive job rating, while 21% gave him a negative job rating and 41% were undecided.

His negative job rating is 6 points higher than in a Jan. 22-24 EPIC-MRA poll, when his job rating was 38 positive, 15% negative, with 47% undecided.

However, he still remains personally popular, mostly because he's a pretty likable guy (i.e. "one tough nerd"):

In the latest poll, 54% had a favorable opinion of Snyder, compared to 59% in January. A third were undecided; 13% had an unfavorable opinion.

What tumoil in the Great Lakes?
Winter storms?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm assuming...
He's talking about the Asian Carp which came in from the Illinois River and are destroying the local ecosystem, or maybe the reduced funds for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (though the last is more a federal budget issue then a local one).

If Snyder's population is falling (I'd say he'll probably be in negative range on job approval, but not personal approval, by the summer), it's probably over his education cuts and his proposal to get rid of the state's Earned Income Tax Credit.

http://www.freep.com/article/2...

http://www.battlecreekenquirer...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Republican much?
What turmoil?  lol  That's some famous last words, right there, if a politician here were to say something so disconnected from reality.
[ Parent ]
This comment seems inappropriate to me
Referring to "turmoil in the Great Lakes" is pretty oblique, and it was more than reasonable for LookingOver to ask for clarification. I don't think your comment is well-taken.
[ Parent ]
oblique
It's only oblique for dense and opaque people.  And, quite frankly, I'm tiring of your passive-aggressive brow-beating.  It's not something much I'll have to worry about when we make the full change over to DKos, so, whatever.
[ Parent ]
Then count me among
1) The dense and oblique
2) A supporter of David N, and his caution to you
3) Someone who fears that you're right about what will happen after the transition to DK is complete
[ Parent ]
And me tto
And i will add

4. I fear that most of the best commenters here will have little desire to contribute (and a lot of desire to leave)  after transititon is complete, exectly because an "atmosphere" someone waits so anxiously....

[ Parent ]
I'm tired of your attitude
On display in thread after thread calling out users. It stinks.
[ Parent ]
Oh
There's nothing "passive" about my moderation style. Your worrying can end now, because you're banned.
[ Parent ]
I think he's referring to Wisconsin
which, in your defense, you are obviously familiar with.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
That's a shame
Rick Snyder is one of the few Republicans elected in 2010 that I wanted to succeed. The Republican party would be better off by accepting  true intellectuals into their ranks. Snyder is ridiculously smart. He graduated from Michigan (An elite univeristy) at age 18! He also got an MBA and a JD when he was 23. I am still giving him the remainder of the 1 year pass I said I would give him to see if he can help Michigan.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Than you're a lot more generous then most Michiganders are.
We elect our governors, and then chew and spit them up almost right away. Snyder luckier then Granholm and Engler until 1999, since he doesn't have a split legislature/legislature of the other party, but that hasn't really helped Snyder form strong bonds with the legislature or the Republicans in Congress, which I think is the bigger story. I'll admit, though, that he's been better on the Wisconsin issue then any of our other neighboring governors.

http://www.mlive.com/politics/...

And slashing money for public universities (though not all public schools) is a favorite of the Republicans in the state legislature, so I'm not sure how much those three degrees are doing him now.

http://blog.mlive.com/capitolc...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
This is Michigan
We're a perpetually pessimitic people.  Our politicians, even the ones we like, we only begrudingly show it and then only rarely.  Snyder isn't in much danger of not being re-elected, but he'll have to go through what every other governor has gone through since at least Blanchard, and that is going through being publically disliked (if even privately appreciated).

No need to cry for Snyder; he'll be all right, but only so long as his conservative legislature chooses  not to try and embarrass him.  He's already had to give them a talking too, recently, telling them to cut out the culture war crap.  It still remains to be seen if they think they are the ones with the mandate, or him.

The Dems?  Well, they are just sitting back enjoying the fun.  You can do that when your opposition has a comfortable majority in the state house, and a super-majority in state senate.

[ Parent ]
Disagree about Snyder being "all right"
Synder isn't much better than the far-right on economic issues.  He's proposing the same type of tax cut, corporate policies that other Republicans have been pushing.  He's just going about it in a more subtle way.  A far as culture wars, his attempt to overturn the decision to give "live-in partners" benefits (aka gay partners) indicates where he'll go on social issues.    

I see him having a pretty difficult re-election.  He wants to increase taxes on the poor and older residents to pay for corporate tax cuts.  Older voters are key for the Republican Party.  Given that he never had strong support among conservatives, pissing off other key voters won't help his cause.  Additionally, most Democratic voters who were fooled by his "I'm a moderate, independent BS" will likely have woken up by 2014.    

The Dems should, indeed, sit back and watch this mess.  Any Dem who votes for Snyder's budget is a fool.  

[ Parent ]
Gingrich to announce exploratory committee in 10 days.
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
...hehe.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Let's start the countdown!


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
And, hopefully, in his case
it's the final countdown.  (someone can imbed the video for me if they please.)
[ Parent ]
or better yet
JOB.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
whoops, i meant
GOB.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
George Oscar Bluth?


19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
[ Parent ]
yep
n/t

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
This work?

<iframe title="YouTube video player" width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/tt_ro2aerQg" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> 

 

It was our official campaign song this summer.



überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
I guess there is a god after all.
The day he announces, Chuck Schumer and the other members of the Democratic leadership just need to hold a pres conference and do this:

http://cache1.asset-cache.net/...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
My father
told me all about that and how petty it revealed Gingrich to be.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Should he somehow go anywhere
in this process, specifically the general, the Obama campaign will need to walk a somewhat fine line in order to take him down. He's not particularly smart, but he's not as blisteringly dumb as Palin. He also talks a good game and can make crap seem better than it is by dressing it up in pretty words. They won't want to depict him as some sort of idiotic monster and then have him come across as better than that, which would benefit him in the end. They'll need to go after him in ways that aren't as obvious as they are with other candidates, I think.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
No chance
He doesn't have a chance in hell of winning the presidency.  He doesn't even have a real shot at the Republican nomination.  Obama wouldn't have to walk any kind of line if he got the nomination; he's the type of deeply flawed candidate you just ignore, but we don't even have to entertain such ridiculousness because he's not even going to get the nomination.
[ Parent ]
You're right that Gingrich is a joke & Obama doesn't have to walk a line, but...
...I no longer completely dismiss Newt's chances of winning the nomination.

Problem is, whenever I game out the primary, I always end up with having to concede someone ridiculous has a real shot.

Personally I've been thinking for a few weeks that Huckabee and Palin won't run.  Santorum is a non-starter.  Gingrich is someone who can thus fill a hard right void.

Pawlenty is the best candidate to straddle all camps within their party, but he's so little-known that he has catch fire in neighboring-state Iowa, or he's done; hard to see a scenario where he flames in Iowa but wins NH, even though I can easily see him winning NH if he wins or otherwise way outperforms expectations in Iowa.  

Then you have Barbour who will try to do what Pawlenty needs to do, but Barbour has the geographical problem of being a right-wing Southerner identified with the fundies.  He has to break that compartmentalization of his image to play in Iowa or NH, or he, too, is done.

But Gingrich can come in 3rd in Iowa, 3rd in NH, 2nd in SC, and then just keep going.  Since there is a lot more proportional representation in delegate allocation this time for the GOP, that allows a perennial silver/bronze winner to stay in the fight longer.  And further helping Newt is that if he doesn't have Huckabee or Palin to worry about, he really could win Iowa, giving him a boost going forward.

As ridiculous as it sounds, there's a plausible path to victory for some ordinarily ridiculous wannabes.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure I agree with you, but
in the event that he did somehow win the nomination, walking a fine line would indeed be the prudent option. A lot of these people are so deeply flawed in what they believe and in how they act that they are juicy targets for punching bags. I mean, Gingrich divorced his (second) fucking wife as she was recovering from cancer? The temptation will be to unload on him and destroy him just for fun, but I'd advise against that. You want to give him the freedom to self-destruct and take down his party with him, but by making him look at all credible or sympathetic, you prevent that from happening. So no, it's not so much a matter of him winning, but more a matter of letting Newt be Newt and letting him fuck over the Republican party so that Democrats can reap the benefits.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Then again...
Sen. McCain cheated on and divorced his wife after she got in a disfiguring accident, even though by all accounts she was faithful and waited patiently for him while he was a POW in friggin' North Vietnam.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
And then
went on to marry a rich beer heiress.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yes, but
regardless of what you think of that, what happened was three decades ago. And unless I am not remember something, he's never been a culture warrior when it comes to marriages or anything. I don't remember him standing out during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, for instance.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I agree completely
I think Gingrich will surprise big time in the GOP debates, and, given his uber-low expectations, he'll probably surge in the polls. I actually expect Romney to tank in the debates, so a flashy, articulate presence like Gingrich can suck-up all of the room's energy. One of Daniels's problems is he probably won't prove the most exciting presence on the stump or in the debates.

As far as the general, presuming Obama's at about 48% approval, I think Gingrich probably repeats McCain numbers. He might be able to flip IN/NC, but it ends there, barring a dip in Obama approval. The one-on-one debates will be fascinating, given there are few people as brilliant at spewing the left and right talking points as Obama and Gingrich.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Agreed on the first point...
Disagreed on the second. I think Gingrich will post worse results than then-Sen. Dole did in 1996, to be frank.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Well, at least...
Gingrich will probably do worse than McCain. Maybe Indiana flips back to Red, but more likely Missouri, Montana, and/or Arizona flips Blue. His "Angry Old White Guy" act may play well in The Deep South, but it really turns off voters everywhere else.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Gingrich will definitely do worse
He is one of two opponents (along with Palin) that could lead Obama to a 45 state win. He has zero appeal outside the deep south to the voters the Republicans would need to win. But I agree with everything said above - with the Republican field being as weak as it is right now, he certainly has a good shot at the nomination.  
[ Parent ]
It's an interesting phenomenon
All these folks can read polls.  Right now they all look like they will be crushed, with only Romney able to say with a straight face that maybe he won't be crushed.

So why would this whole batch of losers run?  Especially, why would Huck and Palin run, when they are making the kind of money they never did before in their life?

On the other hand, Newt would run because he is a meglomaniac, because he can't "wait" due to his age, and because history has sort of passed him by... but he might be able to get one of those cushy, high paying, talking heads job if he does run and raise his profile again.

Somebody has to run.  Somebody has to go after the angry, less intelligent, nutbagger vote.  Newt has nothing to lose, so I expect he will run early, run hard, and stick around.

[ Parent ]
andyroo, you badly understate how unpopular Gingrich really is. Gingrich is Goldwater and will perform as such......
I've dragged out recent polling data on this here already once just within the past week and won't bother now, but suffice it to say he is hugely unpopular with the general electorate nationally, in all swing states, and in a lot of red states, and to say he'd pretend as well as McCain is nonsense.

You're falling into the same trap as the Beltway political media and some people in the GOP echo chamber, who buy into this notion that Gingrich is a smart and well-spoken intellectual.  He's no such thing, and people who think that are victims of being too close to their subjects to recognize devastating flaws.

As I put it a few days ago, Gingrich is a guy who is hugely disliked by most Americans way over a decade after they stopped thinking about him.  To put in perspective how bad that is, look at how people normally mellow on past political figures who they used to dislike; Hillary and Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and even Dubya all are better-liked than they used to be.  Gingrich, no such recovery in his public image.

And part of his problem is that when he does make news, it's to say Obama is driven by a Kenyan anti-colonial mentality, buying wholesale the delusional rantings of Dinesh D'Souza, or calling Sonia Sotomayor a racist.  These things are more reflective of Gingrich's level of intellect than anything people respect him for; if you're smart, you're thoughtful, you're intellectual, you simply don't think or say things like that.

And most Americans know that intuitively and don't give Gingrich a benefit of doubt he has affirmatively disinherited.  People don't grant that you're smart when you talk like that.

McCain never, ever polled as badly as Gingrich, either in head-to-heads with Obama or in his favorabiles.  McCain always was above-water in his favorables, that he ran a bad campaign has caused people to forget that.  A majority of Americans at every point during the 2008 campaign liked him.

Gingrich has no path to performing like McCain, on the contrary he's our wet dream of an opponent.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Goldwater not a good comparison
Goldwater had many passionate supporters.  How many people get up in the morning thinking that Newt is the most assume dude in the country?
[ Parent ]
assume = awesome

[ Parent ]
Where I think you're mistaken in a comparison to '64...
Is that, unlike Lyndon Johnson, Barack Obama is perhaps incapable of siphoning-off a significant number of Republicans, that is, unless he's running against Sarah Palin. I think Gingrich has minimum floors at about 87% with Republicans and 37% with Independents. Let's give him 5% of Democrats and calculate against an '08 voter model. At 85R/37I/5D, that gives Gingrich at a baseline of 41%, which puts him more in Adlai Stevenson territory than Barry Goldwater. My hunch is Gingrich would in fact perform better than that and probably lose by high-single digits, but, no, I can't possibly fathom anything close to a Johnson/Goldwater map. Gingrich isn't bleeding Texas and "middle America" to Obama.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Adlai Stevenson sounds like a more apt comparison.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
A few things:
1. I'm actually of the mind that there's more of a limit to how well a Democrat can route a Republican than how well a Republican can school a Democrat. Simply put, Democratic states appear to be far more willing to vote for a Republican, even narrowly, than the other way around. That could easily be a function of the best and basically only examples being decisive Republican victories, which were most elections of the last few decades. But still, it seems much liklier than Rhode Island will vote for a Republican than it seems like Idaho will vote for a Democrat. So, while it's entirely possible, and even perhaps likely, for Obama to flip a bunch of red states, it's probably very unlikely for him to get as close as Reagan.

As for your Goldwater and Stevenson comparisons, perhaps it's just by coincidence--I don't know enough about Stevenson's campaign to say for sure what happened--but they each ended up with a handful of states. Obama winning with at least 57 percent of the vote would give us some sort of similar result.

2. When Johnson won a lot of states, he won some of them by much smaller margins than one others. That makes sense, of course, because these things tend to happen in orders of magnitude. A 32-point win in New York for Obama, for instance, almost certainly translates into a five-point victory in some red state. A win is a win, but nobody expects him to win some of these red states, should he win at all, by truly enormous margins.

3. In relation to my first point and what you said about his inability to win a certain number of Republicans, I'd like to mention composition, as you did. The danger isn't so much that he wins a massive share of Republicans, like 30 percent, but that a lot of Republicans simply stay home. That would probably limit how many such Republican voters he would get, since the ones showing up are probably more hardcore, but he's still double or triple what he received last time, depending on the state. Meanwhile, the share of Democrats would go up, especially because the Obama campaign would be working every possible angle to turn out Democrats all over the country. Plus, he'd dominate amongst Independents, possible even more so than you'd give him credit for.

To take three examples, imagine what might happen in Indiana, Texas, and then Nebraska. In Indiana, let's say it was the same from 2008, 36/41/24. If Obama went 95/15/60, he'd win with 54.75 percent of the vote. Imagine it changed to 39/34/27. With the same winnings, he'd get 58.35 percent of the vote. In Texas, in 2008, it was 33/34/33. Going 90/10/60 would have given him 52.9 percent of the vote. But under a new composition, 36/31/33, he'd have 55.3 percent of the vote. In Nebraska, in 2008, it went 29/48/22. With 95/15/65, that would have given him 49.05 percent of the vote. But if the composition changes to 32/43/25, he'd win with 53.1 percent of the vote.

I think it's pretty clear that Obama could win a lot of red states without actually taking that much away from Gingrich or someone similar.

In sum, Gingrich is in fact a safer option for Republicans, but that's sort of like saying being shocked is better than being stabbed. He could do as badly as Palin, but it's less likely. The thing is, his ceiling, in absolute terms, is probably pretty fixed. He might get as many votes as McCain did, or even a few million more, but Obama would probably significantly improve on his totals from last time. Considering that they'd have so many resources to toss around, they'd bring out Democrats from all over the country, including in deeply red states. When you combine it with the natural fall off from what would increasingly look like a bloodbath and the mile wide, half-inch deep support from Gingrich (does anyone really like him all that much, let alone love him?), the Republicans would be in for a world of pain.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
In summer 1992, before Perot got back into the race...
Clinton lead George HW Bush in the polls in 48 states.  he was behind by four points in Utah and six points in Indiana.

I agree it has been easier for a Democrat to be nearly swept than a Republican, but the opposite is not impossible.  Palin or Bachman would be pressed to win any state, besides maybe Utah.

[ Parent ]
Really? Wow.
Was that during that period when the challenger usually leads the incumbent before the convention?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think it was probably the convention bounce
but it may have been before the convention.
[ Parent ]
It was definitely not post-convention
Clinton opened up a huge lead once Perot dropped out and the Dem convention happened. Even after the Republican convention, Bush was still stuck in the 30s.
[ Parent ]
I'm not comparing '12 to '64, I'm comparing Gingrich to Goldwater......
Your misunderstanding is understandable, but I wasn't comparing cycles, I was comparing particular candidates who are, indeed, a good comparison.

First, comparing your ballpark figure of 41% for Gingrich, that's actually not that much better than Goldwater actually got.  Fine if Stevenson did better than Goldwater, but it's blowout territory either way!

But my comparison was based on the fact that Gingrich is hugely unpopular and most Americans don't want him anywhere near the White House, based on his extremism.

Second, you're wrong about Gingrich not bleeding Texas and middle America to Obama; he is doing just that or coming very close in a lot of states.  PPP has done us the favor of polling a lot of states already the past 3 months, and it's remarkably consistent that hardly anywhere are they finding Newt with anything close to a comfortable lead.  Obama is either beating Newt or within low single-digits in, indeed, places like Texas, where it's only 48-43.  That's right up front, without the stretched-map effect of campaiging, which ensures Obama can spend resources in places like Texas that Newt simply would never be able to afford.  It's the same effect as in Indiana, NC, and a few other places last time, where McCain had to hold back and cross his fingers until relatively late in the campaign, after Obama had already invested a lot there to ensure a close fight.  You stretch the map to your favor everywhere, you increase the odds of winning each state in that map, more than in a more even national fight.

You can't discount the difference between Gingrich and McCain in favorability.  McCain actually remained well-liked throughout 2008, he was never underwater, or even close to it, in personal popularity in any polling, and actually his favorables trailed Obama's by only a modest margin all through the cycle.  That Gingrich is so strongly disliked everywhere ensures that he'll perform considerably worse than McCain.  Gingrich ultimately fails to cross a basic "acceptability" threshold for most voters, a threshold that is necessary before you can compete.

Fair enough if the modern map ensures Gingrich ends up just over 40% instead of under, but that's not good enough to avoid disaster, and indeed Gingrich is disliked enough to drag down his party downballot, too.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Ron Johnson.
I know the man was just elected in 2010 and didn't exactly do much to hide his conservatism, but is anyone else surprised at how vocal he's been in support of Walker over the collective bargaining dispute? There doesn't seem to be a lot of upside for him in supporting Walker's position so strongly.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/...
http://www.weeklystandard.com/...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

this is the guy who couldn't figure out
why he shouldn't say "I'm a better candidate because I have more money."  i don't think his support is political as much as its what he believes and doesn't know why he shouldn't say all he wants about it.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Speaking of Neil Young
My favorite song from that album, done even better...


jeez, screwed that up
>
[ Parent ]
Okay, just shoot me
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Version of Powderfinger by the Beat Framers

[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday, uh, Mr. President?
If Roger Ailes is indicted this week, what will happen to Fox News?

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

They'll get more viewers than ever
As this would be "proof" that the neo-fascist Obama Administration is broadening its campaign to stomp out internal dissent!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Probably nothing as long as he's not convicted.
People like Roger Ailes don't go to jail; as long as he doesn't go to jail and Murdoch is still in his corner he'll stay put, though that someone like him is being indicted is actually surprising.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)
[ Parent ]
CA-36: How Winograd Is Relevant
Marta Evry, one of my fave CA bloggers and someone who happens to live in CA-36, has a recap of Marcy Winograd's campaign kickoff and an explanation of why her campaign matters. Any guesses as to who's more likely to end up in the runoff now?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
CA-36
I'd guess Hahn, but I'm not sure how much more likely.  It seems like Winograd will probably only get like 5%, so it wouldn't seem that hard for Bowen to overcome that.  She probably only needs 30-35% to make the runoff, assuming the Republican gets around 40%.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Ding, ding, ding!
It looks like the Hahn campaign's push to get Winograd in is paying off. She's now in. And even if Winograd only gets 5%, that's enough to erase the 5% lead Bowen had in the PCCC poll released last week (that didn't include Winograd). And funny enough, that's also the size of Hahn's lead in her own internal poll released earlier this month (that did include Winograd). And if Marcy Winograd really wants to line up more progressive activist support, that will likely continue to eat into Debra Bowen's share of the vote and give Janice Hahn the runoff against Republican Mike Webb that she's looking for.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Do you think Winograd
will get any more support?  She appears to be getting no support from netroots people that supported her last time.  The only issue she can attack Bowen on from the left is Israel/Palestine, which just doesn't seem to be an important to many people.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
She did get 41% of the primary vote...
Last year. And while I doubt she'll get anywhere close to that in this new Prop 14 "jungle primary", I think 5-10% certainly isn't out of the question. I'm still on some CA progressive listservs, and there are still some devoted Winograd fans out there who are attacking Bowen on foreign policy. (Even though Bowen's foreign policy stances are quite progressive overall, that's still not enough for them.) And as I said above, even if Winograd only lands somewhere closer to 5%, that may still be enough to put Hahn on top, and it may even be enough to knock Bowen out of the runoff (depending on how unified GOPers are behind Webb).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
A lot of those Marcy voters
from 2010 probably voted for her because of the AIPAC mini-scandal, which broke in 2009 and may not be there for her this time around.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
And IMHO that's why...
Winograd keeps trying to tie both Hahn AND Bowen to Harman. It's really the only chance she has, and that chance is somewhere between slim and none simply because neither Hahn nor Bowen can justifiably be accused of being some "Jane Harman clone".

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Argh, really?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Sounds
like this campaign could get really nasty really fast. One downside for Bowen even though the district may have lukewarm feelings for Hahn at best, every since fucking power broker in the district is pulling for her. Bowen's only hope is if the netroots swings behind her hard, as in they work their butts off for Bowen like they did for Halter last year and Tester in 2006.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I love the trolling by her husband
in the comment section of that blogpost. Really shows that professionalism and ethics are at the core of her campaign.

I don't know if she's being manipulated by Hahn (who would make a perfectly fine representative in any case but just doesn't quite measure up to the awesomesauce that is Bowen) or is just that much of an egomaniac, but come on Marcy.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
I really LOVE Debra Bowen...
I was so proud to vote for her for SoS 5 years ago (I was still Californian back then), and I think she'd make a great member of Congress. But OTOH, Janice Hahn has a great track record on environmental, labor, equality, and other issues on the LA City Council, so it's not like she's another Harman style Blue Dog. Far from it! Since I no longer live in CA I'm not really taking sides, but even if I were still on the CDP Central Committee, I'd have a hard time choosing one or the other to endorse.

Honestly, even though I probably agree with Marcy Winograd on over 95% of the issues, I can't stand her overly combative style and dogmatic approach to everything. It's really her political Achille's Heel (example- this bait into the race over a letter on Israel/Palestine), and it makes me think she'd be California's answer to Alan Grayson if ever elected to Congress.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Can you explain
What you love so much about Debra Bowen?  I don't mean that as a confrontational question, it's just that her record seems like that of a very capable pol, but a lot of people's opinion of her is well beyond that--the best possible senator in California, this sort of thing--and I don't understand where all that comes from in her record .  I know about the review of voting machines and some open government legislation from when she was in the state leg, is that all or am I missing something?  Does she have a track record of policy or advocacy on economic issues, equality issues, foreign policy/war issues, etc, well beyond that of other CA pols?  I am not an expert so I am honestly asking.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Actually, what I love most about Bowen...
Is that she's the rare breed of California politician who takes her position as a public servant seriously and loves doing her job. Since her expertise is in open government and election protection, it made perfect sense for Debra Bowen to run for CA SoS. And unlike past politicians, Democrats AND Republicans, who have simply used statewide constitutional offices as stepping stones for yet another campaign, Bowen has actually done an amazing job making the SoS office more effective.

Early on, Debra Bowen was pretty careful in The Legislature, as she first represented a swingy South Bay Assembly District, but as her district grew more Democratic (and 2001 redistricting later solidified this), Bowen eventually sported a very progressive voting record on just about everything.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Well that makes sense, but by the same token
If you respect her for developing a particular expertise and seeking offices that focus on it and not stepping stones, how do you (or others, if this is not your view) know that she'd be an effective and ideologically-congenial Senator or Congressman, since those involve so many issues beyond that expertise?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
article regarding the drawing of state house districts in VT
really down in the weeds local stuff, but they warn about possible break downs, similar to 2002 where the reapportionment process dragged on for months.  

http://www.burlingtonfreepress...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Two things are ridiculous about this:
1. Why does Vermont need a 150-member House? Part-time or not, they could cut that in half and still keep representation local (since each member would still only represent about 8,000 people). This really goes for all the small states with big lower houses (Maine and New Hampshire come to mind).

2. Vermont has the most asinine method of drawing lines with their huge multi-member Senate districts. Six members in a huge Burlington-area district? Come on.

[ Parent ]
Governor LePage...
In Maine says he's going to push right-to-work in Maine which, if it succeeds, would make Maine the only state in the northeast with right-to-work. Interestingly, he talks about it as a matter of compulsory union dues, not collective bargaining or joining a union at all.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

Walker got 52%
And people say he is abusing his mandate. LePage got 38% so what does that mean?
[ Parent ]
LePage..
Seems to have the political ear of a tin can. Have there been any polls of his popularity since he was elected; I know most polls showed him with an upside-down approval rating even before he won.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Not that I recall
He is meant to be helping Snowe not making life more difficult.
[ Parent ]
Fortunately
The Maine House has a thin GOP majority of 77-74 (if you include the Green Party-affiliated indie Ben Chipman on the side of the Dem bloc).  There might be several pro-labor GOPers that can shelve this plan if it gets considered.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Note:
There is one vacancy (a GOPer).  So it can go to 78-74 or 77-75.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
That won't go over well at all.
Maine is also a pro-labor state.  Even Michaud's district is very pro-labor.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
This confirms he's brain-dead.
The other piece of evidence can be found here: http://new.bangordailynews.com...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Seriously, Maine, why?
LePage somehow manages to be worse than Rick Scott.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Libby Mitchell
And Democratic primary voters in the state are at least partly to blame.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, woulda, coulda, shoulda.
She should have bowed out and done robocalls for Cutler.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The Boston Phoenix...
Had a really good story that went into this issue pretty deep. Worth a read.

http://thephoenix.com/boston/n...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Oh, how exploitable he is.
And he doesn't even know it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Olympia Snowe
Has anyone asked her what she thinks about this drive to end collective bargaining? And like someone asked last week, has anyone asked Scott Brown? This could be the issue to finally drive Snowe off the ballot.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
No chance.
Just an attempt to get part of Walker's "glory"... Maine legislature is very closely divided, and Maine Republicans are not nearly as ideologically "united" as Wisconsin's..
[ Parent ]
Someone
please tell me the DSCC is not really attacking Scott Brown over this:

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is circulating a number of clips to reporters suggesting that Sen. Scott Brown's (R-Mass.) revelations of sexual abuse as a child is either a political stunt or a hypocritical move in the light of his endorsement of a congressional candidate who was accused of insensitivity to sexual assault -- including this column by the editor of a Cape Cod website:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

I could sort of understand their reasoning behind this, but this doesn't sit right with me at all.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

I'm not sure I buy that anymore.
It was not picked up anywhere else, not even on "The Hill."  Normally, they'd pounce on this.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm sure I will get a lot of crap
for saying this, but regardless of whether or not the DSCC should be using this stuff (assuming they are, which as I and Looking Over have pointed out, it's not at all clear it is, since only Politico that), the news groups that are raising such questions are right to do so. Brown's not talking about an affair he had many decades ago or something similar. He's talking about a crime that was committed but refusing to name the person that committed it, and in the process, he's threatening the name of an organization that seems to otherwise have a good reputation. I don't believe he's making this up--even if he were that craven, he doesn't strike me as that dumb--and he has the right to deal with it in his own way, but it's not exactly fair to toss a bomb out like that and then not be prepared to deal with the clean up.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Politico goof?
If I read that right, they did not attack him.  It says they distributed some articles and columns and editorials, but nowhere does it say in the article itself that the DSCC outright attacked him over this.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Indication of Trouble for Mitch Daniels?
Check out this response from Grover Norquist about Mitch Daniels as it relates to Scott Walker:

Gee. Will Republican governors follow Mitch Daniels's lead? Or Chris Christie's.

Mitch Daniels's first official act when elected governor was to call for increasing the personal income tax in the state. Then he wanted other tax hikes. More recently he has suggested that a value added tax would be a fine addition to the federal income tax. And he praised a national energy tax ... an oil import fee. An oil import fee is a national energy tax on training wheels.

This is a model of what not to do as governor. Luckily the Republican Party has 22 states with a Republican governor and a Republican legislature. Indiana is one of the 22. The other states are cutting spending without flirting with tax hikes and are putting limits on the power of public sector union bosses.

Even some Democrat governors such as New York's Andrew Cuomo have refused to support higher income taxes and have put the union bosses on alert that they have abused taxpayers for too long.

Would this count as an indication that the anti-tax crowd could give him trouble in the primaries?

http://www.politico.com/arena/...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Everyone has been talking about his "social issues truce"
But, his stance on taxes is a lot more dangerous to him.  He's on record saying that we will have to raise taxes to balance the federal budget.  That will come up at some point, and that's going to hurt him a lot more than his "social issues" stance.
[ Parent ]
I see people like Daniels as the republicans
that will either abstain or vote for Obama if the crazy right gets Palin or Newt.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Yes.
The ones that are disgusted will probably stay home, and a decent chunk of them might just do it because he's the only sane person running. But a significant number of them would do it willingly, almost happily, because a lot of people like him as a person, and he's a smart enough politician that he'd make some serious gestures to the right, like talking about how much he likes having Rep. X, a conservative Democrat, in his party, and pick up a few extra points, if only to help his party throughout the country.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Will Haley Barbour really run against "one of the greatest politicians ever"?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

I know all indications are he'll probably jump in, but his statements, not unlike some of Huckabee's, lead me to believe he's hardly a sure thing.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I really don't think he meant that as a compliment.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
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