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SSP Daily Digest: 2/24

by: DavidNYC

Thu Feb 24, 2011 at 8:26 AM EST


AZ-Sen: Outgoing Sen. Jon Kyl says he isn't endorsing a successor - just yet. He wants to see how the field develops first.

IN-Sen: Look who else isn't endorsing - the forgotten man, Sen. Dan Coats, says he isn't taking sides in the looming GOP primary battle, not for Lugar or anyone else. Way to stick by your colleagues, huh? I guess maybe Coats is thinking about 2016, when I'd be willing to bet dollars-to-donuts he'll get teabagged himself (if he doesn't hang up his spurs before then, something I'd also entertain action on).

Meanwhile, Mourdock is concerned about the possible entry of teabagging state Sen. Mike Delph, who Treasurer (and recently-announced candidate) Richard Mourdock says will split the vote with him if he runs. Delph previously issued the usual state legislator's incantation, saying he'd wait until the legislative sessions concludes at the end of April before deciding on a run.

NE-Sen: Gotta say this about Don Stenberg: He has no fear of losing. He's making his fourth try for senate, having failed on his three previous attempts. Still, despite almost achieving perennial candidate status, he did have a triumphant return to statewide office last year, winning the Treasurer race by a landslide. And he served as state AG for over a decade starting in 1991, so it's not like he can't win a race. (Attentive law students might also remember him from the caption in Stenberg v. Carhart, the Supreme Court case about so-called "partial-birth abortion.") In any event, Stenberg is looking to present himself as the far-right alternative to AG and not-exactly-firmly-entrenched frontrunner Jon Bruning.

TX-Sen: Either Tom Leppert just scored a sweet season pass to Six Flags Hurricane Harbor, or he's going to dive into the crowded GOP senate race. Though he has four months to go, he's resigning (effective Friday) from his current position as mayor of Dallas, so it's gotta be one of those two. Who wants to give me ten-to-one on Hurricane Harbor?

Maybe that's not a bad idea, actually, since the University of Texas (on behalf of the Texas Tribune) didn't even test Leppert's name in their new poll (PDF) of the GOP primary. It's not especially fascinating, though, since "I dunno" leads the way at 52%, LG David Dewhurst (who hasn't yet announced) is at 27%, and no one else is above 5%. They also looked at a hypothetical Dem primary, between a bunch of guys who aren't running and no one knows. Click through the link if you insist.

UT-Sen: What to do if you're a pollster in Utah? You've got a major potential teabagging on your hands, but it's very likely to be decided at a party convention, not in a normal primary. So what do you do? You poll it anyway! I can't blame the folks at UtahPolicy.com - it's not like you can really poll convention-goers. And there is worthwhile information you can learn from these sorts of things.

Anyhow, in a hypothetical primary, Sen. Orrin Hatch is tied with Rep. Jason Chaffetz at 42 apiece. This says to me that GOP state delegates are likely to be even more anti-Hatch than Republican voters at large, so the incumbent is probably in very serious trouble indeed. I'm not convinced Chaffetz will make the race, though - in response to this poll, he noted that he's already a subcommittee chair in just his second term, and that it would be "pretty hard to walk away" from his newfound influence in the House majority. But certainly someone will step up.

NY-26: I've been dismissive of him so far, and I remain skeptical, but David Bellavia is at least showing that can-do spirit. The former Army staff sergeant and Iraq war veteran filed paperwork with the FEC to form an exploratory committee, and his spokesman pointed to Republican nominee Jane Corwin's support for abortion rights (at least "during the first trimester," which, guys, hasn't been the legal framework for twenty years). It'll be interesting to see if a teabagger candidacy can use a social issue likes this as its hook. Anyhow, if he doesn't score an existing third-party line, Bellavia will need 3,500 valid signatures to get on the ballot as an independent, which is a lot harder than it sounds.

TX-15: Felicia Sonmez runs down the House members with the highest absentee rates so far - several have missed in the range of 30% of votes in the early going of the 112th Congress. But all of them have obvious excuses (mostly bereavement and health-related), except for one: Ruben Hinojosa, who has skipped over 40% of roll calls. His spokesman didn't respond to The Fix, but I'm really curious to know what's going on here. Could retirement be looming?

DCCC: The D-Trip is doing a wave of robocalls, along with some web ads and emails, into fifty Republican districts. The Hill doesn't seem to have (or at least, have published) the entire list, and NWOTSOTB. (That's "No Word On The Size Of The Buy," in case you haven't seen that one before. Remember it, because candidates and organizations frequently launch tiny paid media campaigns with the hopes of garnering free press. If you don't see information about how much a media buy actually costs, then odds are it falls into this category. Don't let yourself get played, and always be looking for the size of the buy.)

Census: Here's a new tidbit from the Census Bureau: 760 of the nation's 3,000+ counties are experiencing "natural decrease:" deaths are outweighing births. Although most of these counties are rural counties, it's not purely a red state phenomenon; at the state level, four states (all of which, you might notice, have not only older-than-average populations but also low Hispanic populations) also fall into this category: West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, and Maine. (C)

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/24
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Chaffetz
I find it incredibly hard to believe that he'd pass up an opportunity to be Senator for a good 30 years (at least until someone even more nutty comes along and primaries him) in favor of a subcommittee chairmanship. I mean, if he doesn't primary Lugar, someone else will, so both Senate seats would be tied up for decades.

As for Hinojosa, he recently declared bankruptcy, which may be the source of his absenteeism.


I think you meant Hatch
Chaffetz is from Utah, Lugar is from Indiana.  

Though it would be funny to see Chaffetz move to Indiana just to take out Lugar in the primary.  


[ Parent ]
Yeah, I got my doomed Republican Senators mixed up.


[ Parent ]
He should have fully explored a Senate run in 2010
It seems like he just blew it off because how audacious would one be to be a freshman Congresscritter and be primarying your states junior Senator.  In hindsight, that's the exact profile the tea party eats up.

[ Parent ]
Stenberg
I'm seriously at a loss as to why Stenberg is jumping in here. He's already a major underdog to Bruning and if/when he loses again he's going to have a tough time running for Governor in '14 with the Perenial Loser tag.

Maybe he figures Nelson is so weak all he needs to do is win the primary and he's a Senator? He'll still be Treasurer in '14 regardless of how badly he gets spanked in the Senate race, no there isn't an overt risk...but still - this move shows a serious lack of judgement.



"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


When was polling last done on this race?
I'm trying to find some primary numbers but can't seem to do so.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
PPPolling
They just did a blanket primary ballot this month;

Q9 Given the choices of Jon Bruning, Deb Fischer,
Pat Flynn, and Don Stenberg who would you
most like to see as the Republican candidate
for Senate next year?
Jon Bruning 47%
Deb Fischer 6%
Pat Flynn 7%
Don Stenberg 19%
Someone else/Undecided 20%

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
General Election #s
Not much justification for a Stenberg candidacy here either;

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Nelson and Republican Jon
Bruning, who would you vote for?
Ben Nelson 39%
Jon Bruning 50%
Undecided 11%

Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Nelson and Republican Don
Stenberg, who would you vote for?
Ben Nelson 41%
Don Stenberg 45%
Undecided 14%

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I figured it was PPP, but I couldn't remember.
I'd be curious to see how they do in a head-to-head match up.

Perhaps Stenberg feels he's vulnerable due to the revelations about his college liberalism? Or maybe he feels he can outflank him on the right somehow?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Bruning's past
That was my thinking.

[ Parent ]
I think he's hoping to ride a tea party wave
He's going to run to the hard right of Bruning, who has enough baggage that he might have a hard time with the primary. Probably thinks that 2012 is his best chance for an opening, and he's more interested in going to DC as a Senator than sticking around Lincoln and hoping to be Governor.



[ Parent ]
I'm assuming Kyl isn't all that close...
To Jeff Flake. I wonder if he has someone else in mind to succeed him.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


And btw, the Utah Policy poll...
Has even more troubling numbers for Orrin Hatch. 54% said they thought it was time to elect someone other than Hatch, so teabaggers have a real opportunity to defeat him at the convention. I'm just wondering if there's any real shot of a Dem defeating the teabagger.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


Looks like Chaffetz and Hatch
would split Huntsman's support, ref http://polltracker.talkingpoin...

I still think Huntsman will announce for UT-Sen after he comes home mid-year. Someone here a few days back suggested that Chaffetz would defer to him.


[ Parent ]
But can he win at the convention?
No doubt, Jon Huntsman can waltz his way through the general election. He probably won't even have trouble winning the primary... But can he make the ballot at the convention? Will the teabaggers overlook his moderate record as Governor? And his service to President Obama as Ambassador to China?

I've always suspected Huntsman would be more likely to run for UT-Sen than President (at least in 2012), but surviving that convention may not be all that easy for him.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
He only has to make "top 2" at the convention
if I remember right. and if Chaffetz defers to him (supposedly they're close), I don't see a problem. Of course, the Tea Party movement is rather unpredictable.

[ Parent ]
He also has to get at least 40% of the convention vote, otherwise there's no primary.


[ Parent ]
Bennett couldn't even break the top two
And he had a lot less baggage than Huntsmann (in the view of the hard right - who will not forgive the apostasy of serving in the Obama administration, supporting civil unions, favouring cap and trade, etc...)

The way the Utah state convention works, it isn't as simple the top 2 vote getters. In a multiple candidate race, the bottom candidates get dropped on subsequent ballots, until there are only two. If one candidate gets 60%, they win the nomination and there is no primary. So to guarantee a primary, a candidate needs not simply to come in second, but to get at least 40% of the convention votes.

If Chaffetz opted out in deference to Huntsmann, some other tea bagger would step forward. The far right base is so strong that someone would emerge to corral that vote (Tim Bridgewater, who won the convention in 2010 but lost the primary?)

Hatch and Huntsmann share the same base - mainstream conservatives, moderate business types, and establishment party figures. As the 2010 state convention showed that - Bennett was only able to get 26% of the vote, and he is arguably more conservative than Hatch or Huntsmann.  


[ Parent ]
The Huntsman argument really seems like pie in the sky to me.
The right wing in Utah is not going to elect him again.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
Huntsman in a republican primary would do like Lieberman in a democratic primary

For president, for senate... for city councilman...

[ Parent ]
Going for Senate instead of Prez would seem like a no-brainer
Honestly, I cannot imagine a scenario wherein Jon Huntsman could gain serious traction in a GOP presidential primary.  He's an unknown quantity, and would need some truly masterful re-invention in order to escape the tar of being Barack Obama's ambassador to China. This is to say nothing of the moderate-ish stances he assumed on various national issues during his time as governor (immigration, gay rights, the stimulus package, etc.)  He has no obvious constituency anymore among rank-in-file Republican voters anymore -- at least in Utah, he probably has enough residual good will among members of his own state party to give him a fighting chance at the nomination.

Then again, if even Bob Bennett was too much of an apostate to survive the convention process...

Male, 23, DC-At Large


[ Parent ]
Iowa judicial retention 2012
Governor Terry Branstad appointed three Supreme Court justices yesterday to replace the three justices Iowa voters did not retain in the 2010 elections. All three are qualified candidates, all are Republicans, and one made a substantial donation to Branstad's gubernatorial campaign. That hasn't stopped some conservatives from grumbling, but I don't think there is enough support in the legislature to change our merit selection system for judges.

In 2012 all three of the newly-appointed justices will be on the ballot for retention, as will David Wiggins, one of the seven who concurred in the 2009 Varnum v Brien ruling on marriage. I'm curious to see whether there will be an all-out campaign against retaining Wiggins, a Tom Vilsack appointee. (Outside groups spent about a million dollars on the campaign against retaining Marsha Ternus, Michael Streit and David Baker last year).

The 2010 anti-retention television and radio commercials had a simple message: take a stand against activist judges, turn your ballot over and vote no, no, no on retaining Supreme Court justices. In 2012 it would be a a more difficult message: turn your ballot over and vote no on Wiggins (whose name would presumably be sandwiched between Mansfield, Waterman and Zager). Or maybe by then the court will have handed down some other ruling that made right-wing groups mad, so they will campaign against retaining all four justices, but it's hard to see any case coming down the pike that would be as emotional as same-sex marriage.

I'm annoyed that Iowa's Supreme Court will have no women justices for the first time since 1986. It's partly the judicial nominating commission's fault; a dozen qualified women applied, but the only woman on the short list of nominees sent to Branstad was the one he obviously would never consider appointing.


That sucks about the women
You mean the judicial commission couldn't find one qualified woman Branstad would consider appointing?


[ Parent ]
After 2012 we would have a trouble

T Branstad would appoint again the replacement, I'm right?

[ Parent ]
I'm bookmarking this comment
I personally think defeating all the constitutional amendments in MN next year will be extremely important for progressives.  And with them possibly giving us up to five very controversial amendments, I think it'll be easy to do a long messaging campaign of them not focusing on jobs but them wasting months on gay marriage, abortion, photo ID, etc.  Build up the, what are they doing, waste of time, send a message to the GOP and just skip that part of your ballot.  Target people who vote in Presidential and not mid-term years because when they see the ballot and how long that shit is, they'll go, oh the people told me it's ok to skip it, I'm just here for President anyway.  And skipping it is an automatic "no".

Easy peasy, especially in a Presidential year.


[ Parent ]
That's only because
the Republicans took back the House and are focused on cutting spending, reducing onerous regulations, and removing the uncertainty, especially as it relates to the health care bill. Also, tax cuts.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
And they're doing it all without passing any bills that do anything like that!
Magical... :D

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
No, no, no ....
.... i's due to the economic policies put in place by Ronald Reagan.  Anyone who says any different is a goddamn anti-American communist.

[ Parent ]
More likely
Because they "repealed" HCR.

http://www.kff.org/kaiserpolls...



[ Parent ]
It's abortion, obviously
Acting on John Boehner's revolutionary economic theory that high pro-life agitation creates jobs, the Republicans needed only a month to jolt our economy into action!

For his next act, our heroic Speaker will resolve all our foreign policy problems through the magical side-effects of opposing marriage equality.  How blessed we are to have such a leader!

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.


[ Parent ]
In response to all responses to b.j
This is why I'm excited for DKE.

[ Parent ]
Because we (who are not "progressives")
will not (most likely) be there for long?)))

[ Parent ]
CA-23
FixAaron
Former CA LG Abel Maldonado (R) has filed to run against Rep. Lois Capps (D-Calif.). Tough district, but redist commission could change it.

The emphasis here should definitely be on the last sentence.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)

Any guesses as to how a non-partisan commission might draw the 23rd?
It's D+12 currently

NY-01/NY-19

[ Parent ]
guess
A reasonable district in the same area might be all of SLO and Santa Barbara counties. Obama had 173.8k votes there, McCain 126.6k. That's 57.9% for Obama and 42.1% for McCain, or roughly D+4. Maldonado would have a chance there.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Not a good chance, but a chance
Lois Capps strikes me as pretty popular--and she'd be retaining a lot of her current constituents in a redistricting like that. Maldonado might have a moderate reputation, but he's a bit of a schmuck, too, with his tax shenanigans. In an open seat contest, I could see him having a decent chance, but in a straight-up match-up against Capps in the district you outlined, in 2012, that chance would be the barest one. That said, Capps is 73, and may feel like hanging it up at some point soon...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Two problems with Maldonado...
First, he will have incredible difficulty winning The South Coast (aka the southernmost stretch of SB County coastline from Goleta to Santa Barbara to Carpinteria). SD 15 only went as far south as Santa Maria, so most of SB County isn't accustomed to voting for Abel Maldonado.

Secondly, there's no guarantee he'll make it past the GOP primary. The only reason Maldonado survived the LG primary last year was because Arnold used whatever was left of his political capital to get him appointed. But this time, Arnold isn't around to save him any more and the local teabaggers may be hungry to take on another "RINO!!!"

Still, he can't totally be dismissed. If the CA GOP really thinks it can compete in the new CA-23, it might hit up the RNCC to back Maldonado. But if they really think they can waltz in and destroy Lois Capps, they really don't know what's about to come their way.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
"GOP Primary"
Thanks in no small part to Maldonado himself, there is no longer any such thing as "the GOP primary" - there will be a jungle primary with the top two candidates running in November. I'm sure Maldonado thinks that his relative moderation and potential cross-over support will ensure that he gets to the runoff ahead of more purist GOPers, and he may be right. Of course there's absolutely no guarantee he wins the runoff, even in a reconfigured district. If he does win though, CA will have two former LGs in their House delegation at the same time, along with a former AG and (potentially) a former SoS. How strange is that?  

[ Parent ]
shows what pols think
about what kind of stepping stone statewide office is in CA.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
That's still no guarantee...
For Maldo. The CA GOP is already looking at ways to "work around" the "jungle primary", such as instituting a system of endorsing a single Republican candidate and encouraging party faithful to ONLY support the endorsed candidate in the official primary. While it wouldn't necessarily kill Maldo, I can pretty much guarantee you he won't be getting the offical CA GOP endorsement to carry into that "jungle primary".

(Btw, the CA GOP will be trying this new system in the CA-36 special election this year. Already, there's talk of them trying to coalesce party faithful behind just one GOPer to try to ensure that GOPer makes the CA-36 runoff against Janice Hahn or Debra Bowen.)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
LOL
Maybe last year.  I doubt the GOP will pick up any house seats in 2012, especially in California.  Maldonado was also weaker than I thought he would be as a moderate Hispanic republican running for a statewide office in the best year republicans have had since 1994 against so called über liberal Gavin Newsom.  That race wasn't even close.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
He was hurt by strong right wing third partiers
My guess is that the Tancredo types voted for other right wing candidates rather than support a Hispanic. (Or alternately it was his moderatism and not his race that turned off far right voters) If you combine all left wing parties (Dem, Green, P&F) verses all right wing (Rep, Lib, AI, tea flavored write in) the final results were only 52.9 - 47.1.  However Newsom only lost 2.7% to his left flank, while Maldonado lost 7.1% to his right flank.  With the new top two system this will not be a problem in the congressional race and Maldonado will be in a much stronger position.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Specifically the Libertarian

Unlike most minor party candidates, the Libertarian actually invested a good deal of money into her statement in the California Voters Guide that is mailed every year. She stressed her status as an economics professor and attacked "rhinos and socialists", clearly hurting Maldonado from the right. She pulled 5.86% of the vote. ‎

 http://www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2011/01/ballot-access-news-california-2010-libertarian-nominee-for-lt-governor-had-best-showing-for-an-%E2%80%9Cother%E2%80%9D-candidate-for-that-office-since-1922/



19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

[ Parent ]
Maldonado
was lucky to make it past the primary last year. That ain't happening this time. Especially since the Tea Partiers in this state are ready to execute any Republican (politically) who votes for higher taxes. Plus he was a piss poor fundraiser. His campaign last year was so dirt poor they couldn't even put up TV ads so Newsom had free reign over the airwaves.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
But California doesn't have normal primaries anymore, right?
Wouldn't Maldonado be favored to advance in a "top two" primary?

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
yes
The new top two primary was Maldonado's pet issue and he would have to depend heavily on independents. He would almost certainly draw enough indies and moderate Reeps to make the top two.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Not as much of a chance as it would seem
Santa Barbara proper has trended very Democratic and very liberal, which gives Capps a very solid ground of support. She held a district before that held SLO and Santa Barbara Counties, when the counties were more Republican.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
2010 election results
Lt Gov 2010

san luis O.  54821R  39047D
Santa B      61456R  56108D

US senate
SLO           53695 R   44799D
Santa B       58817R    64775D

You put those two counties with some of Ventura county which went strong for the GOP candidates in 2010 and this seat looks pretty marginal to me.

Lt Gov M won these counties by a decent margin.  Heck Carly F won these two counties by a narrow margin.  


[ Parent ]
The two counties may not be big enough for a district
If that is the case, going north into Monterey or especially south into Ventura (both Ojai and coastal Ventura are Dem areas) will increase the Dem numbers.  Going east would be odd, but that would make it more Republican.

Certainly a district could be gerrymandered in reddish ways here, but it would be fairly bizarre for the commision to do that.  

Abel is kinda damaged goods, but if ever there was a candidate to benefit from top two it would be him as he won't lose two or three points to a minor party in the general.  I assume he'd still lose some racist and "I'll never vote for that traitor" votes to Capps though anyway.


[ Parent ]
Hinojosa
Maybe he's busy with his whole bankruptcy thing.

President Obama's strength in the south
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

Nate suggests that Obama's approvals are holding up better in southern states -- which suggests different targets, e.g.

The most intriguing possibility is probably Georgia, where Mr. Obama's approval rating was 45.5 percent in 2010 - just slightly below the national average. Compare Georgia, for instance, to Missouri: Mr. Obama lost the former by 5.2 percentage points in 2008, and the latter by 0.1 point. But Mr. Obama's campaign heavily targeted Missouri, which it did not do for Georgia; that may have been worth several points. And Mr. Obama's approval rating is now higher in Georgia than it is in Missouri. Depending on the identity of the Republican nominee and his or her geographic strengths, Georgia might be the better target for Mr. Obama.


Polarization
Swing voters do not exist to a large degree in most southern states. If you look at statewide results for downballot offices in somewhere like MS, AL, or Texas, there is minimal if any variation. It makes sense that Obama's numbers would hold up decently because African Americans are unlikely to budge for him, and it would take real effort to alianate the 15% or so of the white electorate. In Georgia, that is closer to 20% of whites, and:

95% of 30% AA   =28.5
20% of 65% White = 13
70% of 5% others = 3.5

And we get 45%.

The problem is the same thing making Obama's numbers hold up makes it a Herculean challenge to get that final 5% or so. In Mississippi and Alabama I would say its next to impossible.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
I agree
further, he does worst in liberal states with lots of independents (VT, MA, ME to a lesser extent etc) than liberal states with few indies (CA) or states where the political differences are more demographic than ideological (the south).  it suggests to me that he's doing tyhe worst in places where there are lots of disillusioned liberals/moderates with little party loyalty.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
State polling doesn't really support that
His problems are with conservatives and non-ideological indies from what I can tell. Take Massachusetts. In November PPP reported his approval rating was 55-40. The liberal, moderate, conservative breakdown coming in at 92-5, 56-37 and 17-77. I don't doubt some activists are unhappy with certain aspects of this presidency but with the total electorate he is doing just fine.

[ Parent ]
Nate anticipated that argument
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

first --

In the states where Obama campaigned extensively, he drew, on average, 3.3 percent more of the white vote than John Kerry did. In the states where he did not campaign significantly, on the other hand, his percentage of the white vote dropped by an average of 3.3 percent. The differences are highly statistically significant.

essentially suggesting that 4 years as President is equivalent to "familiarity".

If true, then President Obama's share of the white vote should rise 6-7% -- in states where he didn't campaign extensively in '08.

Based on your distribution (which seems reasonable), that would potentially raise the President's share in GA > 48%.


[ Parent ]
What was first though?
Did Obama's share of the white vote rise because he campaigned there or did he campaign there because Whites were more open to vote for him?

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Both.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
deep south
That's true of the deep south but less true of the upper south. VA and NC have become less typically southern as northerners have moved in, and states to the west (WV, KY, TN, AR, OK) have trended red but probably still have a fair number of swing voters as they have less of a history of racial polarization.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
GA is 4th in line behind FL, NC, VA
Its going to be the next one to flip is my guess but I don't know if it will in 12.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
Agreed on both points.
Georgia is Virginia Part III in that, at some point, a massive metropolitan area, combined with the smaller regional population centers, is going to drag it into the Democratic column.  

However, I don't think that's going to happen next year, barring a collosal fuckup by the Republican Convention (e.g., Palin-Bachmann 2012!)  Maybe, 2016 or 2020.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
And South Carolina after that


[ Parent ]
I'd guess TN after that
But now we're talking maybe 20-30 years.  Canada could have finally invaded by then.

[ Parent ]
Nope, Texas.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I thought that
But I put TX in a different category because Hispanic growth is so high.  That one could collapse at any moment, I personally feel.  If we pass immigration reform, that could mean a lot of new Dem voters in TX and if we're talking this long-term, TX could certainly skip any other state in line.  12 million illegal immigrants estimated, how many are in TX and how many are of voting age?  Could happen at any time.

[ Parent ]
Supposedly,
about 1.5 to 1.7 million illegal immigrants are in Texas, and the vast majority of them are Hispanic.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think TX becomes blue long before TN becomes blue.
By "becomes blue," I mean stay that way.  Between immigration and domestic migration, I'd put my money on Texas way before Tennessee.  

I think it'll be the same thing in Texas as happened in Virginia and North Carolina and will happen in Georgia: Houston + Dallas + Austin + San Antonio + El Paso + Other areas of high minority concentration + Breakthroughs in the suburbs = Democratic win.  Austin and El Paso are blue and finally broke through in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.  And people are moving to at least some of these areas.

With Tennessee, we can't even get 40% of the vote in Knoxville and also can't win Chattanooga.  And has there been any major population shifts that threaten to shift the relative population to areas of Democratic strength or that at least bode well for Democratic takeover?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
I wonder
how much improvement we'd see in a state like Tennessee just by campaigning there and how much of it would be due to bringing out Democratic-leaning voters as opposed to flipping voters than usually lean towards Republicans.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
You might know
know better than I would, so let me ask, how much room for growth do you think there is amongst white voters, both for the next few cycles and for those down the road? A large part of the process would be bringing new voters into the process, but I wonder how much of it would need to be changing minds and how successful Obama would be in doing so.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think it'll have to be a part of the equation.
Long term, I think there is a lot of room for growth.  Of course, there are the migrants from Ohio, etc. who bring with them sometimes different political values.  And even whites that grew up in the area are less like whites in previous generations.  I think there is a cosmopolitanism effect happening that can make at least some of the whites in the area less "Southern" culturally and politically.  I think growth in general, more contact with non-heterosexual white Christians, etc can have that effect as can education.

Short term, there's some room for change, but I wouldn't expect any explosive growth.  

In both I think require actually realizing who will be pivotal and making an effort to appeal to them, to explain why Democrats/liberalism is preferable.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Exactly the part people forget
When they see Republican leaning states gaining population the assumption is always that it must be good for the GOP since it means more seats in Congress and more electoral college votes. In practice it doesn't work like that. A look back at the states that gained seats in each of the last three reapportionments is for the most part a tally of states that have trended Democratic since then. And we see it again in the release today - NV grows and becomes more Democratic, MO shrinks and becomes more difficult for Democrats to win.

[ Parent ]
I think it's more complicated that even that.
While growth in general can contribute a growing support for Democrats/liberals through the creation of a more cosmopolitan atmosphere plus the need to protect greenspace and deal with other growth issues.  On the other side of the coin, stagnation if not outright decline can do the same by creating a need for urban renewal, more concern for job creation, etc.  In both cases, a feeling that the government needs to act is instilled.

Remember that New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, New Jersey, and Connecticut have also lost seats in Congress over the past couple of decades, but have moved decidely left.  For example, of these states, Dukakis carried only New York.

At what point growth or stagnation change the political map is the question as is what else needs to happen or be there.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Don't disagree
These things are always multi-faceted. No simple explanations.

[ Parent ]
Not in 2012
Not earlier then 2020. It will take 10-15 years for Georgia to becom "Purple" - almost the same time as Texas. Add 10 more years - and you will have South Carolina. After that - probably nothing for long time...

[ Parent ]
Have you read Nate's argument?
I do think GA could be close, with a real campaign.

[ Parent ]
Yes. And partially agree
Close - yes. But not win

[ Parent ]
Even forcing R defense in GA
would be a D win in '12.  

[ Parent ]
Yes. But i meant
not nationwide victory, but victory in Georgia

[ Parent ]
All of the sudden
I hear General Sherman's music in my head.... (Anyone remember the music when Gary Hart flew into Atlanta in '84, after beating Mondale in NH?)

[ Parent ]
More ticket spliting in those states
but there obviously dominated by conservative politics. That alone makes them unwinnable for a Democratic presidential nominee unless the republican truly is awful.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
In regards to KY, WV, TN, AR,


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
yes
At the presidential level those states swing between massive Republican blowouts and unremarkable Republican wins. The deep south states always go red but exhibit less variation.

GA should become a swing state by the end of the decade if northerners and Hispanics continue to move in. How much bigger can metro Atlanta get, though?  

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
Metro Atlanta
"How much bigger can metro Atlanta get, though?"

I think it's a little more complicated than actual population growth, though that's obviously a big part of it.  There are also the questions of growth relative to the rest of the state, breaking through into new areas, and consolidating what we do have.  If I remember correctly, neither Gore nor Kerry won Metro Atlanta and Obama only got around 51% there.

For the first thing, I can pretty much guarantee you that the non-Metro districts (the 1st, 2nd, 3rd*, 8th*, 10th, and the 12th) will have to expand considerably while the Metro districts (the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th*, 11th*, and 13th) will expand. (* Technically, the 3rd and 8th have some Metro territory but are overwhelmingly non-Metro while the inverse is probably true for the 11th.  The 9th is somewhere in between, but it's growth is likely coming from it's Metro areas.)

For the second and third, it's important to remember that only three of the 28 (I believe) Metro counties are solidly Democratic: Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton; these three were the only Metro counties Gore and Kerry won.  Obama added three more: Rockdale, Douglas, and Newton.  Last year, Barnes only carried four these six (the solid three plus Rockdale).  So, you have the question of solidifying Douglas, Rockdale, and Newton.  

On top of that, you have other counties (e.g., Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry) that are getting precarious for Republicans but haven't flipped yet.  All three are huge (especially Cobb and Gwinnett) and would be a massive coup to win.  

And beyond that, you have other Metro counties that are sizeable but are not trending our way and/or are wastelands for us (e.g., Paulding, Cherokee, Forsyth, Carroll, Bartow).  Being able to hold down our losses in these counties would be very helpful.

The point of all of this is that it requires more than just sitting around waiting for people to move to Metro Atlanta.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
In 2008, he got 23% of the GA white vote
according to the exit polls, he managed to get 23% of the white vote and 98% (!) of the African-American vote.

The presence of a more substantial liberal/moderate white population in metro Atlanta, (along with smaller concentrations in Savannah, Athens and Augusta) gives Georgia whites a slightly more liberal outlook than many of their southern neighbours (for example, Obama share of the white vote was only 10% in Alabama, 11% in Mississippi and 14% in Louisiana - but lower than a surprising 26% in South Carolina, 34% in Tennessee, 35% in North Carolina).

If Obama were able to get the Georgia number up even close to the level seen in North Carolina, the state's large African-American population would be enough for him to win the state.

While who knows what things will look like as the election gets closer, I hope that, for the moment, the Obama campaign people are at least looking at a few states like Georgia to keep the playing field fluid going into 2012.  


[ Parent ]
I would think they are.
After all, if they've got money to toss around, which they probably will, there are only so many states that aren't true long shots. Arizona and Georgia are almost certainly at the top of that list. Plus, they might want to try to snag a few House seats as well as soften the ground and build up a better infrastructure for Georgia's senate race in 2014.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Just in terms of Gallup's polling
Lots of examples of him doing far better than they find in several states. Even before the uptick in January.

[ Parent ]
Speaking
of California....

Assemblyman Anthony Portantino will lay the groundwork for a 2012 congressional campaign with a Sacramento fundraiser next week.

The Southern California Democrat has not officially announced his candidacy, but e-mail invitations tout Tuesday's event as his "Official Congressional Campaign Sacramento Kick Off."

Portantino, D-La Cañada Flintridge, will be termed out of the Assembly in 2012 and plans to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. David Dreier, chairman of the House Rules Committee.

Portantino's Sacramento fundraiser will be at the home of Jay Hansen, chief strategy officer for the California Medical Association. Supporters are asked to contribute $50 to $500.

Portantino served last year as head of the Assembly Committee on Revenue and Taxation.

Read more: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

Looks like someone's anticipating redistricting here. Wouldn't be surprised if redistricting unleashes the floodgates of termed out legislators. (Dreier's the rumored closeted person right?)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Dreier's the rumored closeted person right?
Yes, David Dreier is gayer than a pink unicorn with a clutchpurse full of rainbows and is thought to be schtupping his chief of staff. Or, as Barney Frank, when asked whether Dreier was not given a position in the House leadership because of his "moderate" views, put it: "Yes, in the sense that I marched in the moderate pride parade last summer and went to a moderate bar."

That said, Dreier's voting record is pretty conservative... he probably couldn't survive anything much tougher than an even PVI district--he got just 52.7% in 2008 in a R+3. Also, his district is weirdly fashioned and probably likely to be altered significantly by the redistricting commission.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
La Canada
probably won't be in that district anymore, at least based on all the CA maps I've seen.  It's at the absolute western end of the district.  Seems more likely to be in Adam Schiff's district.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Oops
I meat to reply to ehstronghold

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

[ Parent ]
NV census
What would be the result of a VRA NV-1 on the map? Any link to a previously drawn one? As of new census numbers, NV-1 is barely plurality white 39-37.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

Not bad.
But if it's a presidential year, won't the parties secure their bases pretty well? This poll shows Tester only getting 65 percent of Democrats compared to Rehberg getting 71 percent of Republicans. My guess is that they both get at least 88 percent of their party's vote. The action comes down to Independents, but I am not sure what to think what might happen there. The fact that he's leading gives me some hope.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Yep
Tester is well liked too, 53-33 favorable. Only Rehberg has even better numbers, 57-28 favorable. But maybe part of that has something to do with his lack of competitive races over the last decade.

[ Parent ]
What I don't understand
is how he keeps getting elected if he's such a dumbass. If there is, as others have indicated, quite a bit of dirt on him, why hasn't it been used?

As much as I'd like a solid win of 55 percent, let alone a huge win of approaching 60 percent, I'll gladly take 52 percent. If he gets 55 percent of Independents, Tester probably gets there.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I refer you to The Ambassador again!


[ Parent ]
Huh?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Because the people running against
Rehberg were dumbasses who couldn't raise money or do messaging for shit. The 2008 opponent dropped out of the race despite remaining on the ballot and endorsed Rehbrg.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
internals seem to be a bit skewed
It's noteworthy that the sample consisted of 46 percent Republicans, 36 percent Democrats and 14 percent independents.

ref http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

I think it was closer to 1/3 each D/R/I in '08.  


[ Parent ]
It was.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
ahhh perhaps this is why
according to a poll conducted by NSON Opinion Strategy for a conservative consulting firm and the Northern News Network.

bolding mine


[ Parent ]
Pretty much what PPP found though


[ Parent ]
point well taken
Nevertheless, the PPP poll splits 29/38/32 D/R/I, much closer to the '04 numbers you listed.

Thus the standard question everywhere -- what will the electorate look like in '12? Closer to '04 or '08?


[ Parent ]
Considering the demographic change
Over eight years I would say the latter. The national exit poll last November was 35-35-29 which is comparable to 2004. And the racial breakdown was identical to Bush-Kerry, 77-11-8.

[ Parent ]
Thus with the standard statistical caveats
the numbers actually look somewhat better for Tester than the results suggest -- but are still rather close.  

[ Parent ]
33% D, 33%R, 35% I
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
You are correct
33d, 33r, 35i. Though in 2004 it was  32d, 39r, 29i. However you slice the thing it looks tight as a drum.

[ Parent ]
ahhh tight as in a close race
though here's another reason to be skeptical about the poll --
400 likely voters, Margin of Error= +/- 4.65%


[ Parent ]
Question for Ohioans
What is up withh Jay Goyle?  I've been looking around state legislative maps, and he stands out.  He's a 30-year-old Hindu Democrat representing a district more-or-less coterminous with a county, Richland, that Obama lost by 13.5, Strickland lost by 15, the Republican county commissioner won in 2010 by 19.  His district is entirely surrounded by landslide-Republican districts, and he's in a Republican State Senate district and a Republican Congressional district.  Just looking at his website, the endorsement I saw from a local paper doesn't mention that his opponent was a serial killer or anything, and even if he was, plenty of lousy politicians can win  relatively small districts that favor their party anyway in a wave year for their party.  So, what's up with Jay Goyle?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

not from Ohio
Found this on a debate they had, though.

http://www.mansfieldnewsjourna...

He comes across as a blue dog type. His opponent comes across as weird and wears weird clothes.  

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
PA-Sen
Casey 46-30 favorable and leads Santorum 50-38, Dent 51-32, and Gerlach 48-34. Likely D. Interestingly, the president comes in as the most popular politician in the state, 51-44 favorable.

http://municipoll.com/yahoo_si...


If the Republicans aren't competitive
in PA, then Obama can again spend all of his time in OH, VA, FL, NC, CO, etc.  

[ Parent ]
CA-36
Winograd is in.  I'm not pleased by this and even less excited by Janice Hahn's tactics against another Democrat.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

That means that if Republican candidate is
more or less serious (and he seems to be) - there will be a run-off between Democrat and Republican later

[ Parent ]
If Baron Hill doesn't run again
who could be a possible candidate to run against Todd Young. Pretty much anybody in Bloomington. Not necessarily meaning they would be a good fit for the district as it may be drawn.

- Mayor Mark Kruzan (Perhaps to liberal)
- Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson (Perhaps to liberal)
- State Representative Peggy Welch (Voted for Marriage Amendment and held up in a hotel in Urbana, Illinois with the rest of the Democrats in the General Assembly. Out of all of these probably the best fit and after her vote against marriage equality she'll probably be out of a job.)
- State Representative Matt Pierce (Definitely to liberal, but he's my rep. and I love him. Also held up in Urbana.)

Please help me and add to the list of any possible candidates.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)


The list hoosierdem made towards the end of last month had a good group of possibilities
He focused more on officials from the river counties than further north, though. I think he also mentioned the possibility of Sam Locke running against Young, but I haven't heard anything more about that.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]

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