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SSP Daily Digest: 2/23

by: DavidNYC

Wed Feb 23, 2011 at 12:44 PM EST


AZ-Sen: Former GOP Rep. Matt Salmon says he's considering getting into the senate race. Salmon held current candidate Jeff Flake's seat in the House before losing the 2002 gubernatorial race against now-DHS chief Janet Napolitano. Speaking of Flake, he was one of only three House Republicans to vote against the GOP-backed spending bill which contained $60 billion in cuts. Teabagger eyebrows were raised, but Flake claims he voted against it from the right, saying it didn't go far enough.

MA-Sen: Speaking of teabaggers, Scott Brown, when directly asked if he was one (okay, he was asked if he was a "tea partier"), said "No, I'm a Republican from Massachusetts"(and I drive a truck!). I maintain that a tea-fueled primary challenge to Brown is still possible.

MO-Sen, MO-02: GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson says she won't try to challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill. Dave Catanese thinks that Emerson's "moderate profile" would have made it hard for her to win a primary. Also, former MO GOP chair Ann Wagner says she's still considering the race - but, interestingly, says she also might primary Rep. Todd Akin in MO-02.

NV-Sen, NV-02: Major bummer, sports fans: Sharron Angle says she is NOT running for president, repeat NOT running for president! Hopefully, though, this means she'll go for the senate again, or possibly the 2nd CD.

RI-Sen: Cranston Mayor Allan Fung says he won't seek the GOP nomination to challenge Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, citing the huge fundraising hurdles he'd face.

VA-Sen: Attorney David McCormick becomes the latest Some Dude to enter the GOP nomination battle for Virginia's open senate seat.

WI-Gov: By now you may have already gotten wind of the AFL-CIO poll conducted by GQR on the battle in Wisconsin. It was actually two separate polls taken a few days apart, combined into one. The topline numbers for Gov. Scott Walker don't look good - 51% job disapproval, and underwater unfavorables to the tune of a 39-49 spread.

CA-36: The Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) released a poll on the Dem primary in the race to succeed soon-to-resign Rep. Jane Harman. The numbers, from PPP, show SoS Debra Bowen leading LA city councilor Janice Hahn 33-29, and just 21-20 without leaners. Obviously there are still tons of undecideds.

Hahn also released a poll of her own, taken by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates. She refused to release toplines, claiming only that she has a "five-point lead." Misleadingly, her poll memo says that "Hahn's lead is larger than the survey's margin of error." The MoE is ±4.9%, so technically, yes, her lead is literally "larger" than the MoE, but it's not "outside the MoE," which is the metric people are usually concerned with. The press release accompanying the memo also repeats an amusingly idiotic line of attack on PPP, saying the PCCC survey "is not reliable given the fact that it was conducted by a robo call, rather than by an actual researcher."

One other detail: Hahn also just picked up the endorsement of new state Sen. Ted Lieu, who won a special election last week. Lieu's name had briefly surfaced as a possibility for the CA-36 race, too.

CA-41: GOP Rep. Jerry Lewis, seventy-six years old and skipped over for key leadership roles after the GOP takeover of the House, won't say yet whether he'll seek an 18th term. Redistricting may play a big role here, as Lewis won't benefit from another incumbent protection plan, thanks to the new independent redistricting commission CA voters approved last fall.

NY-14: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is in New York City today, doing a fundraiser to benefit both Rep. Carolyn Maloney and the DNC. A little surprised to see Maloney benefitting from this largesse, since Reshma Saujani said she won't try to primary Maloney again this cycle. (Then again, Reshma's already flip-flopped on that, so maybe she'll change her mind yet again.) I suppose it's possible that this district's lines will change enough to offer the possibility of a different primary challenger emerging, so this could be a defensive maneuver. Or it could just be a reward to a loyal backer.

NY-24: Did Rep. Richard Hanna plagiarize a Cato Institute paper for an op-ed of his own in the Syracuse Post-Standard? Check it out and decide for yourself.

NY-26: Carl Paladino, already on record as backing Jane Corwin's candidacy before she was tapped as the nominee, officially (re-)endorsed her. Some teabagger, Lenny Roberto, also endorsed Corwin, but there's always People's Front of Judean/Judean Popular Front splits between these guys.

Case in point: Iraq vet (and teabagger) David Bellavia's been calling local Conservative Party chair Ralph Lorigo, trying to scarf up the Cons' nomination. Crazy Jack Davis has been doing the same, but Lorigo didn't speak highly of him. Lorigo is responsible for Erie County, which carries the most weight in the 26th district. His Monroe County counterpart, Tom Cook, is the second biggest cheese, and says he's also gotten calls from Bellavia, Corwin, and, believe it or not, nominal Dem frontrunner Kathy Hochul. Cook didn't have kind words about Bellavia, but he noted the obvious truth: state party chair Michael Long is going to make all the decisions, and he appears to be leaning hard toward Corwin.

OR-01: Rep. David Wu apologized for his behavior and said he's getting treatment (including medication) for whatever ails him... but that he has no plans to step down. Meanwhile, 2010 GOP challenger Rob Cornilles (who lost by 13 points last year) is being talked up for another run but hasn't decided yet.

UT-02: The NRCC has an ad up (yes, already) attacking Jim Matheson over spending, but NWOTSOTB, so I'm guessing this is what Nathan Gonzales would call a "video press release."

Philly Mayor: Wealthy businessman Tom Knox says he won't challenge Mayor Michael Nutter - and in fact, went ahead and endorse Nutter. It looks like the incumbent is probably set to cruise in the Democratic primary.

Crossroads GPS: The Karl Rove dark money front group is launching a $450K radio ad buy, attacking a dozen Dems on spending and supporting ten Republicans. Full list at the link.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/23
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Scott Walker and David Koch
Just in case there was any doubt--for anyone, anywhere--that what is happening in Wisconsin isn't largely political, I present the following link:

http://www.buffalobeast.com/?p...

Apparently, this is entirely real, even if the transcript is a little disorganized.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


Not
the fact that David Koch called up Scott Walker, of course. What's real is Scott Walker's voice and the things he says about union busting.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
the link didn't work
but I dont need links to believe in money bags trying to dictate the national narrative and policy goals as that's just American politics.

[ Parent ]
Matt Salmon
retired in 2000. He actually kept his 3 term pledge from 1994. And if he were to run it would seriously eat away into both Flake's geographic base, but also his ideological base. I think Salmon or Frank would be weaker candidates however.  

Salmon's comments
strike me as someone briefly missing the limelight and talking about making a race they would never actually get into, if he was really looking to run for office again I don't think this is where he goes..maybe run for his old seat now that it's open and then try to replace McCain in '16?

I'd bet he stays "retired" though.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
At 54?
This is a former Congressman, the original Jeff Flake, and someone who is still a hero to many Arizona conservatives.  

[ Parent ]
Why not?
54 is plenty young enough to enjoy life, it all depends on what he WANTS? To be honest being a member of Congress is not THAT great a job and life after politics can be very attractive after sleeping in your office and voting on a CR at 4am...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Various
Crossroads buys an average of $15k in radio? Snooze.

NRCC does probably less in UT-2? Snooze.

NY-26, getting on the ballot in NYS is extremely difficult so if there is no readily available ballot spot (ie CP's) then I think the challenge from the right gets nowhere. Sans a 3 way race I don't see this special being any more competitive than CA's.

VA-Sen - David McCormick's 15 minutes was up before I even reached the end of his stupid press release. Say goodnight Gracy...

MO-Sen - No surprise on Emerson, I honestly saw no path to victory for her in a GOP primary. As for Ann Wagner challneging Akin in the primary? Makes no sense, why run against a very strong incumbent in a primary instead of an open seat statewide? I think someone was talking out of their ass, which makes me doubt the whole piece.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


David McCormick
I was surprised to hear he's from Virginia Beach. I've never heard of him, I figured he was just some generic NoVa candidate. And this part of the announcement from the WaPo was kind of a WTF moment:

"For children interested in learning more about his campaign, McCormick's site features a Kid's Corner that includes a "lesson" comparing government profligacy to a squirrel that doesn't store enough seeds and nuts to make it through the winter."


[ Parent ]
That part of McCormick's site is for Republican primary voters. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Akin

We talk long about the strength of T Akin, do you remember?

Well, I think this is telling a lot. A former Missoure GOP chair surely knows who is more strong and who is less strong.


[ Parent ]
NO
Akin is completely safe in a primary and in any district likely to come out of the legislature, no matter who challenges him - including Wagner.

This makes me think whoever is claiming to be speaking for her is either off their rocker, pulling names out of a hat, or just blowing smoke.

No way in hell she jumps in vs Akin in a primary. Absolutely No Freakin' Way.


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Stenberg
I'm seriously at a loss as to why Stenberg is jumping in here. He's already a major underdog to Bruning and if/when he loses again he's going to have a tough time running for Governor in '14 with the Perenial Loser tag.

Maybe he figures Nelson is so weak all he needs to do is win the primary and he's a Senator, and he'll still be Treasurer in '14 regardless of how badly he gets spanked in the Senate race...but still - this move shows a serious lack of judgement.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I talk not about Stenberg (Nebraska)


[ Parent ]
Rove targets
I don't understand going after Michaud. He won easily in 2010, and Obama will easily win his district in 2012. They may be trying to dissuade him from running for Senate, but Maine's other district is even more blue and I doubt that linking him to Obama will get much traction statewide. For that matter I think it's silly to go after Heinrich and Larsen even though they had closer races in 2010.

Interesting that the NRCC was going after McIntyre and Kissell but not Shuler, who currently has the reddest district. Are the NC Reeps planning to screw the first two in redistricting but leave Shuler more or less alone?  

41, Ind, CA-05


Remember when
Newt Gingrich said some weeks ago that if they really wanted to get things done, they need to win big in 2012? Granted, the "goals" he described were getting another 40 or so House seats and 12 or 13 Senate seats, which seems just more than a little unlikely. But regardless of how unlikely might seem to me, aiming that high requires going into some fairly hostile/unlikely terrain. Now, obviously Crossroads is Rove's group, but I imagine the same sort of mentality of trying to score huge wins is shared by all Republicans.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
NC-Pres: Obama at 47/48 approval, down 1 to Huck, up 3, 4, 10 over Mitt, Newt, Palin
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Not bad at all. I think Obama wins this one at 47/48 approval, at least vs. Generic R, though a southerner like Huckabee would definitely create problems. I don't think VA/NC will prove prime Romney territory, and, despite the polls, I actually think Gingrich performs a bit better than him.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


About what I expected
I thought that Huckabee would be the only candidate of the "big names" that could give Obama a scare in NC.  NC's demographics may have changed...we are not a strong red state anymore...there is a level of cultural conservatism that is still very important in NC.  Huckabee meets the litmus test for these conservatives.

Palin would be crushed in NC...she'd lose by 15 points.  Gingrich is yesterday's news.  I think Romney would be penalized only due to his religion (the very protestant areas of NC that usually support Republicans would have trouble voting for Romney).  The only other way the GOP would have a chance is if they nominate a former governor such as Pawlenty, but I doubt that will happen.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
A big Pawlenty problem is he can't run against Obama now
he has to wae through the oozing tar pits of Republican primaries.  I suspect he will have no chance in NC after the primaries, just like Barbour would have trouble in Indiana.

After a bare knuckles group of primaries, all the candidates will have trouble appealing to states that are not their natural base.

Every single Republican candidate is actually weaker than they appear now, unless somehow the primaries end up a unityfest, and I just don't see how that can happen.


[ Parent ]
Yup
Tossup at worst despite Republican and pundit claims that we can put it in the GOP column already.

[ Parent ]
Yup, and a tossup in NC guarantees Obama's reelection......
If Obama is running close in NC a year from now in these trial heats, then it's gonna be virtually impossible for the Republicans to win absent some disastrous unanticipated news event.

Republicans cannot beat Obama without shrinking his map.  If he's still playign for keeps in NC and VA, then forget it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Only up 4 against Newt?
Ugh...what is Gingrich's appeal to anyone outside the teabagger base again?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
I wondered the same thing
Gingrich probably appeals to the military families too.  I know that many of the military in NC thinks highly of Gingrich due to his grandstanding back in the 1990's.  Truth be told, if Gingrich is nominated, he will lose NC in the double digits.

I'd put NC in the Tossup/Lean D category.  If Gingrich is the nominee, it's Likely D, and if Palin is the nominee, it's Safe D.  Palin is despised in NC.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
This is NC
which is somewhat more conservative than the nation as a whole.  

[ Parent ]
I just don't understand why he's polling better than Palin
Who is dumb enough to like Gingrich but smart enough to like Palin? They're basically the same candidate.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
*smart enough to not like Palin


Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
....
Misogyny?

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Little hesitant to accept that one
There are few things misogynists like more than women who tell them how much they enjoy being suppressed. Palin accomplishes that goal just fine.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Yowsa! Really?!
Sure, Gingrich is uber-conservative, but he's a brilliant uber-conservative. Palin's brain is the size of my toe's pinky nail.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Brilliant?
I'd love to know where this constant talk of Gingrich's intellectualism comes from. Whatever he was in the 1990s, he's just another bomb-throwing demagogue looking to sell books now.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I think it stems from his ability
To string two words together.

[ Parent ]
It's simply that he's been out of office so long people have forgotten about him......
Gingrich's 4-point deficit in this poll and similarly modest deficits in some other states in recent polling are his high-water mark.  He's benefitting from the elecotorate's relative political amnesia; they remember they never liked him, but it's faded with time.  They'll grow to despise him all over again over the course of a fresh campaign.  This is a whackjob we're talking about, a guy who earnestly insists Sonia Sotomayor is a racist and Obama is motivated by a "Kenyan anti-colonial mentality."  He's not going to run a competent general election campaign, if he threads the needle to grab the nomination.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Is there any evidence that he's even popular with the Tea Party?
I think his support mostly stems from rank-and-file who find Romney too moderate. Gingrich isn't popular at all with the family values crowd, and they main a very prominent role in the Tea Party scene. Palin and Bachmann are the Tea Party darlings.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Everything I'm hearing from Huck
leads me to think he won't run.  Last week he was quoted as saying that Obama is going to be a lot harder to beat than Republicans think.  Clearly not the musings of a man who is ready to take the plunge.

Obama is probably headed for a small win in North Carolina, unless it is against Palin in which case double digits is likely.


[ Parent ]
Why is Huckabee appealing to anyone at all?!
I have no idea why people actually like this dude, much less would vote for Him over Obama, but vote for Obama over Palin in the general.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
He has a working class appeal
If I remember right, he's spoken out against big corporate salaries, with "paycheck to paycheck" themes -- in a way that has PO'ed the Club for Growth.

I fear him the most in '12, as I think if unemployment stays at around 9%, he could flip several midwestern states (along with VA/NC/FL).


[ Parent ]
He also was
a competent governor, social issues aside.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
And raised taxes
The things that make him attractive are the very same reasons they wouldn't nominate him if he ran.

[ Parent ]
He won't make it out of the the primaries...
He can't fundraise, and the other folks will crush and smear him to political death.  He seems very hesitant on getting in as well.

[ Parent ]
He won't make it INTO the primaries......
I'm increasingly convinced Huckabee just won't run.  I think he's sincerely undecided, but his words of hesitance reveal volumes.  If you're already persuaded Obama will be very tough to beat, and you got a $3 million mortgage and need dough to pay it, and you're otherwise showing signs of reluctance, you're just not gonna run.  It's just as well, like Gingrich I think Huckabee is "overpolling" vs. Obama early on, his vulnerabilities not standing out in the background but loud and obnoxious to anyone paying attention.  He has zero chance of doing well enough in swing state suburbs to carry those states.

I pretty much write off Huckabee in my mind anymore.  And I think Palin, too, is unlikely to pull the trigger when decision-time actually comes.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Scott Walker pwned!
http://motherjones.com/mojo/20...

Read the article and listen to the recordings.  It's priceless and illuminating.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Caught red handed.
If this doesn't prove that his motivations are political in the budget fight, nothing will.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Really?
I listened to the whole thing and didn't hear anything I wouldn't expect him to say in front of a camera too.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Well, "caught red handed" is overstating it, but the implications are the same.
I direct your attention to Ezra Klein:
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Meh
That someone posing as Koch gets Walker on the phone is hardly a smoking gun, nor lethal IMO.

This isn't going to get decided by gimmicks or shennanigans (including crank calls, dubious ethics complaints or printed paychecks), both sides are dug in on the issues so one or the other will blink, and that will come from their perception of how this is playing with the electorate.

How that will turn out I have no idea.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
It's not lethal.
But it does allow a window into his mind.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Window into his mind....and talking points?
National Review Online, The American Spectator, The weekly Standard (but strangely not Redstate) all are linking the audio from the call.

Obviously they don't hear anything objectionalble. This will certainly provide motivation for people already against Walker (and vice versa), but beyond that I think this is much ado about nothing.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I don't know, but the AP article on it is pretty devastating...
He pretty much admits to union busting and negates everything he tried to say last night.

The business press seems rather concerned 'cos Walker has actually managed to put the unions in a positive light and make them the victims.  One columnist thinks that this may presage the rise of labor again.

The gallup poll certainly confirms that hypothesis.


[ Parent ]
Link the AP arcticle please
I also don't put too much stock in polls at this point, so much depends on wording and sample...I don't think you'll see voters opinions on this gel for a few weeks.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Meh
Seems like wishful thinking. I honestly don't see anything in the article (or the audio) that is damaging.

In fact to his backers (thus the NRO et al posting) he comes across as a principled leader who's not willing to cave in.

I'm not saying I support him at all, but aside from providing red meat to both sides core supporters there just isn't much to this.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
He has more detractors than backers though


[ Parent ]
Does he?
Time will tell. As I mentioned above I don't take the polling on this seriously yet, too much depends on wording and sample. Plus both sides will have plenty of info to convince them that things will work out in thier favor.

I'm trying to see how this plays out, so far a compromise scenario seems highly unlikely, so who blinks first?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Ah well
People never take the polls seriously when they don't like what they find!

[ Parent ]
Exactly!
It's like a baseball player trying to negotiate his contract - "But I hit over .330 on alternate Wednesday's vs Left Handed Pitchers in Day games started before 3pm!"

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Apparently over your head, pj......conspiracy was talking about YOU. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
That was an interesting article
I don't believe that Walker has done himself any favors, for sure.  I don't know how damning it will be to him, but for the short term there is a trust issue that he will need to address.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Damaging in the sense that
Walker has just energized a demoralized Wisconsin Democratic base.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Demoralized?
Never saw that at all.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
This is turning way too much
Into a left-right debate, which is strongly discouraged here. Please move on.

[ Parent ]
One more SSP policy I hope continues
on Daily Kos Elections

[ Parent ]
In the interest of full disclosure
I consider myself a Wisconsinite, although I don't currently live in the state, and my mom is a teacher in the WI public school system so I'm far from a neutral observer.

Having said that here's my take: Scott Walker is losing the PR battle, he wouldn't be having daily press conferences and "fireside chats" if the public was on his side. But even with that, he's still got the numbers that count the most: 19, without peeling off 3 state senators all they can do is do what they've been doing. Because of this I'm not optimistic as to whether they will win this battle.

But, Scott Walker will lose this war. The Republicans have lost Wisconsin in 2012. All of the energy is on the Dem side and the Republican either has to distance himself from Walker to curry favor with the Independents he needs to win the state in which case he'll lose a lot of Republicans who'll stay home which may cost them the state senate. And while it's a very long way away, unless Scott Walker can significantly rehab his reputation he's going to be a one-term governor.


[ Parent ]
Plays extremely well to anti-Walker narrative
What you want to be able to say about Walker is "He's a partisan hack.  He's taking advantage of a budget crisis to push policies that benefit his allies, and have nothing to do with the deficit.  He's listening only to corporate interests, and not at all to people in his state who wan't to negotiate."

This plays perfectly into that narrative.  The unions got out to a slow start on the messaging war here, and I think they were losing in the early going, but they've been gaining traction for several days.  This will help if they play it right.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.


[ Parent ]
I liked Chuck Todd's take
http://twitter.com/chucktodd/s...

I don't know if he meant to be funny but it made me laugh.


[ Parent ]
Mister
Everything is political and everyone knows it, don't tell me that HCR wasn't political, politicians do politics.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
And
When Pat Quinn raises taxes to deal with deficit, it's also political, welcome to politics! One decision you like and one you might not like.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
But this is to do with the third rail.
And Walker hurt himself terribly.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
What third rail?


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
WI
has a long history of being friendly to labor and Walker is violating that bond.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
What does that have to do with the crank call?


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I was addressing
MosheM's comment about Walker's motivations being political and how he overplayed his hand.  WI is not MS.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Ahhhh Gotcha
Sorry for the misread.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I have no idea what point you're trying to make.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Whew!
I was wondering if I was just stupid.  I didn't understand that comment at all either!

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Mister!


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
HCR was not political
If President Obama was completely political about his plans, he never would have touched HCR.

("everything is xxxx" is a standard right-wing meme, consistent with "everyone does it")


[ Parent ]
A meme!
But I only like memes if they're about power levels or letting someone finish.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
God, I've been hearing about this all day...
Everyone I know is telling me it's a game changer. I can't wait until I get out of class so I can watch it

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
I wonder if the local media will play this part of the tape
Walker: [...] I went on "Morning Joe" this morning. I like it because I just like being combative with those guys, but, uh. You know they're off the deep end.

Koch: Joe-Joe's a good guy. He's one of us.

Walker: Yeah, he's all right. He was fair to me...[bashes NY Senator Chuck Schumer, who was also on the program.]

Koch: Beautiful; beautiful. You gotta love that Mika Brzezinski; she's a real piece of ass.

Walker: Oh yeah.



[ Parent ]
Wait
Wasn't the Koch imposter a Dem State Senator? I'm certainly not going to stick up for Walker on this, but he's not the one that just called Brzezinski a "piece of ass"


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I thought it was a reporter


[ Parent ]
No. It was some guy from Buffalo, NY.


[ Parent ]
Ahh
I think I misread one of the articles, one of the St. Senator's tried to reach Walker by phone and he refused the call, but "Koch" gets through. My bad.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
IN-State Legislature: "Right-to-work" bill is dead.
The walkout worked and the IN GOP heeded Gov. Daniels call to shelve it.
http://www.indystar.com/articl...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


It's not over yet
There's still a variety of other nasty things moving through the state Senate.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
In the article
The Dems won't come back until the voucher bill and whatnot are shelved as well.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Daniels vs Walker
Does this make a Walker cave more or less likely? Given the criticism Daniel's is taking I'd say the later, but then again it might give him the cover he needs to back down - basically Daniel's has given Walker a roadmap back (pun intended).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
It hurts Walker, not a close call......
There is strength in numbers and political synergy when the same or similar basket of issues is simultaneously being fought across the country.  Daniels' capitulation has hurt Walker, not a close call.  Same with Rick Scott's stunning remark opposing removal of public workers' collective bargaining rights.

I've felt from the start that this battle seemed to be going against Walker.  The massive numbers of protestors isn't necessarily an indication of public opinion, but tens of thousands of people in Madison is pretty compelling for a state-level policy fight.  The polling is clear that Walker is on the wrong side of public opinion on this, and he's looking increasingly like he's overreached.

All of this doesn't mean he won't eventually get the union-busting bill through the state Senate.  He still might.  But not without lasting damage to himself and a serious bleeding of political capital.  And Wisconsin is the kind of state where a Democratic takeover of elected power is always possible near-term, and these things can be quickly reversed so as to prevent long-term damage.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
if daniels is running for prez
great strategy (snark).  the moderate vote is taken by huntsman and romney, and it's a small pool to begin with.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
That is a vast generalization...
My moderate vote is going to Daniels over those two in a heartbeat. Not even a question. I know it's anecdotal, but Daniels is the first choice of all my more pragmatic Republican friends, too.

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
Only two big issues with Daniels
1. He's short
2. He's bald

Sadly, this actually matters...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Chuckle
Also the Budget Director that turned a record surplus into a record deficit. That would come up certainly.

[ Parent ]
Que?
Looking at the budget numbers (via CQ Weekly) and the surplus in FY'00 was $128B (record was 236B in '99). Under Bush the deficit peaked at $413B (or 3.5% of GDP).

In FY'09 the deficit was $1.4T and is estimated at $1.65T for FY'11 (or 10.9% of GDP).

Interstingly the Bush deficit's lowpoint was 161B in '07 (last year of all GOP control of budget process) with was only 1.2% of GDP, which is about 1/3 of the % of GDP forcast by OMB for FY'15-'21.

Not sticking up for Daniel's but if he can't sell his tenure as OMB director (along with this record as INGov) he needs to find a new line of work...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Opposite also applies to Obama
Not that I think it matters. Daniels may well have mortally wounded himself.

http://online.wsj.com/article/...


[ Parent ]
Meh
It is always enticing to take every news cycle as being determinative, this is doubly so at the early part of a cycle, and quadrupled regarding presidential candidates, but 2 weeks from now this flub by Daniels and his mediocre expanation today, will be old news.

On the flip side he'll still be short and bald.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
You think other
GOP candidates wouldn't use it? Yeah, right!

[ Parent ]
Mitch Daniels and the OMB
Which voters are supposed to be impressed by his record at the OMB?

http://www.newyorker.com/onlin...

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/...

http://dir.salon.com/story/pol...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
...wasn't McCain kinda short and kinda bald?


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
over huntsman? why?
i get that romney is iffy b/c of his experience and his health care program certainly won't help, but what makes daniels better than huntsman, except that daniels wasn't in the obama administration?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
NE-Sen
Stenberg to run for Senate according to politico;

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

This is a shock to me personally. I was convinced that Stenberg would bid his time and run for Heinemann's open seat in '14.

This could potentially get ugly, but Nebraska primaries have generally been pretty gentile fights, neither Heinemann nor Johanns were significantly wounded by their tough primary fights for Governor, but neither was facing an incumbent either.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


Gentile fights?
LOL, you're probably right.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Be nice
I'm on mobile, moble, noble aw crap!

Seriously though, these two could probably do a 4 hours "your mama so fat" bit on statewide TV and it wouldn't affect the General Election.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
His fourth bid for the Senate!
He's nothing if not persistent. I believe this will beat Tom Campbell's record of three consecutive Senate losses by a credible candidate.

[ Parent ]
Is there a mercy rule?
How many times do you have to lose before you no longer qualify as a "credible candidate"?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Once he's bounced from his State Treasurer post.
The voters of Nebraska apparently wanted him back in statewide office in 2010. Until they stop voting him in, he's going to keep running, and running, and running...

[ Parent ]
Intesting fact on Stenberg's "comeback"
The only reason he was able to run (again) and win statewide was because (for reason's unknown to me) GOP golden boy Shane Osborn decided not to seek re-election.

Who is Shane Osborn? He was the pilot of the EP-3 that collided with a Chinese fighter in '01 and made an emergency landing on Hainan Island.

After leaving the Navy Osborn moved home to Nebraska and ran for Treasurer, winning fairly easily.  Many considered him (along with Brunning) as the obvious successors to Heinemann as Governor, or this Senate race.

Had Osborn not decided to hang up him cleats (or flight helmet in this case) Stenberg would still be out in the cold...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
And now
Osborn is chairing Bruning's campaign.  

[ Parent ]
Osborn
Any idea why he decided to not run for reelection?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
VA Sen
I'm very sad that this VA GOP bit (curtesy of NRO) is NOT an Southpark "Timmmay!" bit, but instead a sad omage to Welcome Back, Kotter.  You can do better people!

http://www.nationalreview.com/...


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


CA-36 Endorsements
I am wondering why Hahn is picking up the overwhelming majority of endorsements so far.  In fact, does Bowen have any major endorsements at all yet?

Certainly, Hahn entered the race slightly before Bowen, but Bowen was rumored to be a possible candidate from the very beginning.

Another explanation may be that Hahn has remained in the area while Bowen has been in Sacramento, but Bowen represented the area for 14 years.

Aside from these factors, is there something going on behind the scenes that is preventing Bowen from winning key endorsements?


Hahn got in right away
And the establishment likes to get around a viable candidate early in a special election race. As a member of the Los Angeles City Council and being from a family with strong political connections, Hahn has probably built up very good connections with the establishment.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Hahn is from the "been around forever" wing
Bowen is not part of the gentrified in crowd.

[ Parent ]
IN-Deputy A-G: Deputy Cox gets fired
for calling for live ammunition to stop WI protestors.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


What. A. Jackass.


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
yeah
After I read that I thought to myself, "he's not going to be a deputy AG for much longer."

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
PPP surveying VA and WI this weekend
I suggested they add Connolly and Kind to the respective polls.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


OR-01: More Wu
For those who need details, the following article is excellent (though long) http://www.wweek.com/portland/...

It includes a key insight on Wu's appeal in the district

He's long been known as a geeky, low-key and, at times, awkward politician.

"That's part of his charm," says Jim Moore, a political science professor at Pacific University in Wu's district. "He's basically a nerd. He admits fully that his social skills are not very well developed. He admits that he's not that great at glad-handing, but he's a hard worker."

Sh*t. That describes me too.

Viscerally, I now want Wu to stay, to hang on, if only to properly represent the nerds of the world.


That describes me to a T too!
We definitely need more nerds in Congress! And more scientists (outside of medical). With Bill Foster gone, maybe I should run for Congress and establish the Congressional Scientist Caucus!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
What about Rush Holt?


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Oregon has enough of those already
That also describes Sen. Wyden and Reps. Blumenauer and DeFazio, none of whom have mental illness or substance addiction problems.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
There's a difference between the policy wonks
you cited -- and a real nerd.

[ Parent ]
Sen. Wyden is about the most awkward politician imaginable
He just brings an air of sincerity, humility, and earnestness that I think Rep. Wu lacks. He's a nerd, but he's a sweet guy, and everyone can tell. Wu, I'm much less sure about. The attempted rape incident that got dredged up in 2004 may prevent me from seeing through clear eyes here, but he just strikes me as less forthcoming and hardworking as Sen. Wyden.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
That's always the impression I got of him
He reminds me of a few people.  

[ Parent ]
Hard worker?
Surprised by the "hard worker" claim (which is part of where a nerd association would come from). This striking earlier report about him doesn't make him sound like a hard worker at all: http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

He sounds more like ... what's the grown-up equivalent of a spoiled brat? - than like a "hard worker".

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


[ Parent ]
UT-Sen
Hatch reelect 31-54 and tied with Chaffetz.

http://utahpolicy.com/featured...


If he loses among voters
he'll lose worse at the convention.

[ Parent ]
too bad
Hatch is somewhat likable.  I think I've even found hom funny (maybe on the daily show?) A few times.  The great divide between parties is certainly going to grow in 2012....sigh.

[ Parent ]
His behavior since 2009 has been more inappropriate than just about any Senator.
nt

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
chaffetz
Chaffetz will be worded and less entertainment.  I'll take Hatch.

[ Parent ]
Hatch this cycle
Is just like John McCain was in the last cycle. They know a primary challenge from the right is coming so they are trying to out "right" everyone. It isn't like Hatch was all that moderate but he wasn't a blowhard that he is starting to become. In a way it is sad what he is doing to himself with the intention of saving his butt from a primary challenge. Just retire with your dignity Orrin.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Hatch
in my eyes has become a crazy pandering teabagger, worse than McCain.
From a couple weeks ago: http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Hatch, for his part, at CPAC today, just said that he's sorry for his bailout vote, but that the bailout helped prevent a depression. So... he's sorry about having helped prevent a depression?!? Let me sit and ponder that one for a bit.
So it's getting a little too late for him to retire with his dignity. It's just about gone.

Of course Hatch does have a much higher hurdle than McCain did, needing to get pass the 3600 teabaggers at the UT Repub convention to even get to the statewide primary.


[ Parent ]
Paul LePage isn't just tone-deaf, he's also brain dead.
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!



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