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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Feb 18, 2011 at 10:41 PM EST


James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 246 comments
Trivia questions
(a couple of reposts from last week of questions that didn't get answers)

1. When did the Democratic Party last control the Utah State House of Representatives?

2. Which reliably Republican state in the plains had a  Democratic majority in it's State House for two years in the 1980s?

3. What is the last county created in the United States?

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

I don't know about Utah, but
   I think the most recent U.S. county is in AZ, maybe one of the ones along AZ's "West Coast". Mohave Co.???

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Arizona does have one of the last counties created
La Paz County was created in 1983 from portions of Yuma County, but it wasn't the last county created in the US. Arizona does share a border with the state that has the last created county in the country. I'll see if anyone else can guess before I post the answer.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Nevada?
Some sort of thing to do with the Yucca Mountain nuclear storage facility and taxes, I think? But darned if i can remember the county's name.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
The border...
Doesn't amount to much..

Broomfield County, Colorado

[ Parent ]
Good call!
I forgot about it, even though it's so new/small it doesn't even appear on a lot of county maps...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yes, but four corners is not in Broomfield County..
it is in Moffat county.
[ Parent ]
I think he was saying Broomfield
as the answer to the question.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Gold star
Broomfield County was created in 2001 from portions of Adams, Boulder, Jefferson, and Weld Counties.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
I thought the newest county in AZ was La Paz


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I should have known La Paz
 and not Mohave. So is the newer county in NV, UT or NM? Maybe CO since there's a pinpoint border at the Four Corners. Now I really want to know...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Menominee County, Wisconsin?
I don't know if it's the most recent, but the Menominee Indian Reservation in Shawano County, WI split off to form its own county sometime in the 1970s.
[ Parent ]
Is the newest county Bloomfield County, CO?


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Broomfield
but your answer would be correct in Japan ;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
hmm
1.) 1960s
2.) North Dakota
3.) La Paz County, Arizona?  
[ Parent ]
3 has already been answered
and it's Broomfield County, Colorado.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Correct on number two
Democrats also controlled the State Senate in North Dakota from 1987 to 1995.

As for Utah, Democrats last majority was won in 1974, while they managed to hold the state senate until 1978.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
And the most recent to go...
Alleghany County, Virginia.  The General Assembly just passed a bill to merge Covington City and Alleghany County into the brand-new "City of Alleghany Highlands."
[ Parent ]
Interesting, I hadn't heard about that
Though I think it still has to pass a referendum in the city and county.

I don't know why they don't just have Covington revoke its city charter and retrogress to a town in the county, that would seem to be easier.

[ Parent ]
Being from Wisconsin! Off-season elections are set for April 5th.
I am going to start volunteering (hopefully) for the state supreme court race, the Dane county exec race, and maybe the Madison mayoral contest.  
WI-Gov, WI-St Sen RECALLS
We can't recall Walker until next year, but there are eight Republican Senators elected in 2008 who are eligible for a recall. Three to five of them are in blue enough districts that we'd have a shot at winning. Their names are Alberta Darling, Randy Hopper, Dan Kapanke, Luther Olsen, and Sheila Harsdorf. (SSPers might remember Kapanke from his run against Ron Kind in WI-3).

We only need to win three of these five races and the Dems will be back in control of the State Senate. And I'm sure because of the Wisconsin 14 and their national recognition, we can count on having the money we need to compete with the Koch brothers.

Anyway, I'm going to work on figuring out the PVIs for these districts and write up a diary.

I
wouldn't count the chickens yet. Even if we managed to stage recalls over this....its not a slam dunk. Remember the only reason why Christie, Kasich and Walker are applauded for their union bashing actions is because the economy is really bad and the climate is hostile to unions at the moment. I'm not defending Walker's actions, I think their draconian and its more about Walker trying to prove he can be as much of an ass towards labor as Christie.

But Democrats have to frame this as an attack on the rights of all workers. If they strip away collective bargaining from unions, what will stop the GOP from going after work place safety rules and the minimum wage? If they can bully unions, they can certainly bully people who aren't in a union and who can't defend themselves.

But in my study of Australian politics this last week I uncovered a very unpopular policy put in by the Howard Liberal government in 2005. It was called WorkChoices and it was almost like the bill Walker's pushing through except it was even worst in that it gutted laws protecting Australian workers from unfair dismissals, gutted laws guaranteing overtime and it allowed employers to unilaterally cut worker's pay or fire workers without any reason. And the law affected everyone, union or not.

The Labor party ran heavily against WorkChoices, vowing to repeal them and won control of the government in 2007. And this was after a campaign where the Liberal party aired attack ads smearing Labor as a tool of union bosses and anti business. And WorkChoices has become so toxic not even the Liberals are wiling to touch them now.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
The political climate hasn't been NOT hostile to unions for at least ten years
I'd say it's been longer but I don't know enough to be confident in that.

I don't think this is a fight that can be won on a national level right now. Too many Dems are afraid of their own shadow when it comes to aggressively fighting on behalf of organized labor, even more so nowadays when doing so is met with accusations of inciting 'class warfare' or vague insinuations of political heresy of a socialistic variety. Culturally, the slow death of unionized industry means that fewer people are from union households and know that "union" does not necessarily translate to "corrupt alliance of lazy workers and wreckers".  And besides all that, the unions and the factions in the Democratic party that do support them are outgunned financially anyways.

But in Wisconsin, on a local level, labor and its allies have a shot. With the way the situation looks there, I don't think beating three state senators in swing districts is unrealistic.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
That's probably what they will do.
What Walker is doing is ridiculously political and is easily painted as such. If they keep up the pressure, they can make the Republicans wish they never even thought about bringing this up for a vote.

There's always a chance that the tactics that they are using will backfire, but time and time again, the public seems to care far less about process than it does about results. As long as they don't incite riots or do something blatantly illegal, I think they will be fine if they end up winning in the end.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Alberta Darling (R, Wisc state senate D-08)
Alberta Darling was on our radar in the 2008 cycle. Democrat Sheldon Wasserman, whose House district overlapped, ran against her. Did he leave politics after he lost that challenge? Was he good on union issues?

Democrat Sandy Pasch, a professor of nursing, held the D-22 seat for the Blue team and has it still, according to Wikipedia.

Could either of these folks beat a long-term incumbent with an energized voter base behind them?  

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

[ Parent ]
very much looking forward to your diary!
Please explain recall laws in WI as well in the diary because I don't get why we can only recall certain senators and then the Gov until next year.
[ Parent ]
Must at least a full year into term prior to recall
According to the state of Wisconsin election division's summary of recall law:

No petition for recall of an
officer may be offered for filing before the expiration of one year after
commencement of the term of office for which the officer is elected.

So the only state Senators who are eligible for recall are the half of the Senate holdings seats that were up for election in 2008, those elected in 2010 can't be subject to recall until January 2012. (By my count, that is 8 Republican Senators.)

Of those 8 Republicans currently eligible for recall, 3 were narrowly elected (Alberta Darling with 51%, Randy Hopper with 50% and a margin of about 150 votes, and Dan Kapanke - the unsuccessful Republican nominee against Ron Kind in 2010 - with 51%). One other Republican won with less than 60%, Sheila Harsdof with 56%.

(Of the 8 Democrats eligible for recall at the current time, only 1, Jim Holperin won a tight election, winning with 51%. The rest all received at least 2/3rds of the vote in 2008.)

Similarly efforts to recall Scott Walker can't begin until January 2012 - meaning no petitions can be circulated until that time, although obviously planning can begin.


[ Parent ]
If a recall is successful, how is the replacement selected?
In the '93 CA Governor recall, there was a conditional second question on the ballot with a list of names (135!) to pick from in the event a majority voted yes to recall in question one.
[ Parent ]
It appears to work the same as California
The rules make reference to candidates filing to run and that the incumbent being recalled is automatically listed as a candidate as well.  
[ Parent ]
Not like california
Think of it as a special election but with the incumbent running in it.
[ Parent ]
Does gathering the requisite signatures
automatically mean a special occurs to recall Walker then?  Enough signatures are collected, he gets automatically thrown into a recall special election along with other people running against him?

I'm really liking the idea of Russ Feingold running against him.

[ Parent ]
Yes
If you have enough signatures, the recall is automatic. An election is declared and candidates can file to run against him. Walker has ten days to decide whether to run in the recall, but he can't resign at that point. I'm unclear whether he could resign during the signature gathering period, but just in case it would be a good idea to recall his Lt. Gov. too.
[ Parent ]
What race am I interested in? CA-36 special and LACCD board
   You all know about the upcoming special election for Congress but there are also L.A. local elections on 3/8. For some reason I find the LACCD (Community College Board of Trustees) races more interesting than the LAUSD (School Board) elections.

   One interesting difference is that the School Board elections are by district while the LACCD Trustees are elected at-large. The LACCD area (including the city of Los Angeles and many smaller cities) is insanely large with at least a couple of million voters. Of course they won't all vote (very few will turn out) and you can get some interesting results. Several years ago a Green Party member was elected on the strength of her ballot occupation description and female Jewish name. Now the elections are not as low key; the local righties have been running real campaigns in recent cycles and picked up one seat on the seven-member board two years ago.

   I support Mona Field in Seat #1, Steven Veres in #3, Scott Svonkin in #5 and Miguel Santiago in #7. Miguel and Mona are incumbents and the others are in open seats. These are the candidates supported by the college teachers and other unions and the LACDP and local Democratic Party groups. They also have the support of the environmentalists  because this board has been progressive and pro-active on green building standards and related issues. If you live in this area be sure to vote because your vote counts even more in ridiculously low turnout elections.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

News from Indiana
First, it looks like Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel won't run for governor. I know a bunch of our posters from Indiana had mentioned his name, and as the article notes, he himself had given many indications he won't run.

I'm not sure what to make of this. Perhaps he has his eye on Lugar's senate seat (more on that in a second). Other candidates mentioned are John Gregg, the former Indiana House Speaker; U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly; state Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson; and U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth.

http://www.courierpress.com/ne...

As far as Lugar goes, there's speculation that Lugar could run as a Democrat in 2012. He's probably more of a responsible conservative than an adult moderate, but is there that much daylight between him and, say, Evan Bayh? I have no idea how serious this sort of talk is--probably not very, but you never know--yet if it is a possibility, Democrats should probably welcome him with open arms. If he's that well liked, he'll probably win, and the Democrats will have one less headache.

What say you, Hoosier Democrats? Are state Democrats actively pursuing him? Would he consider doing it? Would he have as much of a fight on his hands if he ran as a Democrat?

http://www.courierpress.com/ne...

http://www.courierpress.com/ne...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Well
that sucks. I had my hopes on Weinzapfel. I really like him a lot. Maybe he has Congress in sights? He has ran before.
I seriously doubt Lugar will become a Democrat. I could see him running as an I but caucusing with the R's but no he is not moderate enough to be a dem, I don't think.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Oh
and as for the Democratic Party wooing him I think it is more likely they are trying to add flames to the fire in his primary, knowing how much their "praise" will help him. They know this seat is not winnable with him as the nominee. I hope I'm wrong though, I would love to see Lugar as a dem, he could win.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I didn't consider that, but you raise a good point.
It's probably one reason why the administration isn't working to bash Huntsman behind the scenes, knowing that only helps him make up for his time in the administration to the base.

I'd think it's more strategic than anything else. If he simply votes for Reid or some other Democrat as majority leader, isn't he giving the Democrats a huge gift, even if he regularly votes against their agenda, because they will control the agenda of the senate?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Like
I said if he really thinks he's DOA in the R primary and doesn't want to pull a McCain (Doesn't look likely with his tea party bashing) or go down in flames then he could run as an indy, ala Murkowski route without write in. If he ran as an indy I think he could win that way.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Any other news on candidates from your state?
If Weinzapfel ran for congress, which seat would he run for? And why wouldn't he run for senate, or at least consider it, since it looks like Lugar could lose a primary? At least then he wouldn't have to campaign every two years.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Not that I know of
He would run against Buschon, he doesn't live anywhere near the 9th. I'm not saying he is running for Congress I'm just speculating on what he could do next. In the CD he would get the D nod no problem but the Senate could be an uphill battle, though maybe he is willing to try it. If I was him I would have stuck to Governor.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I know you were just speculating.
Of course, having him run for congress might be a good idea, if he can make it a competitive race.

Also, one of the comments said that Gregg was the only one who could win the race for governor. Any thoughts on that?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I
don't think he is the only candidate who can win. I do not think he is the strongest for that matter.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
As I've mentioned here before a time or two,
I really like former Speaker Gregg as a potential candidate.  Yeah, he's more conservative than most of us here (but then so is Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth, etc). But I think he would play well throughout the state, if he wants to get back in the political game.

From an ideological standpoint, most of us would be closer to Vi Simpson, and she'd be supremely qualified for any office she ran for, but I seriously doubt she could be a competitive candidate outside of Monroe County.

[ Parent ]
I've heard you mention her before.
Can you tell me more?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
She's the
long-time state Sentator from the Bloomington area, and now is the Democratic Leader in the State Senate.  She's one of the more liberal members of the legislature.

She was running for governor in 2004 against Joe Andrew in the Democratic primary, but pulled out when Frank O'Bannon died and Joe Kernan became governor and decided to run for  a full term.

She's very well thought of, super-experienced, but probably too far to the left to be a strong candidate statewide.  It would be a campaign I'd be excited to volunteer on, though!

[ Parent ]
Vi Simpson is such a great public servant
and I am proud to have her as my state senator. If Obama is doing well in Indiana and Mike Pence is the candidate I could see her being competitive, but besides that I don't think she would. If only she lived in a state were she could go further.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I'm genuinely surprised that Weinzapfel is out
I'd taken his decision not to run for a third term as mayor as indicative that he was a lock for a gubernatorial campaign. I wonder what he's planning on doing instead. I guess the next best choice is John Gregg.

As for Lugar, I think it's possible that he'd switch parties, but very, very unlikely. I agree with hoosierdem; if he does anything like that, it'd be to run as an indy, not as a Dem. Either way, I think he wins the general, but I'd bet he'd actually have a better shot as an independent candidate than as a Democratic one.

If he did switch, I'd expect some token opposition in the D primary, but nothing serious. Dick Lugar is not Arlen Specter; frankly, he doesn't have the propensity for pissing people off that helped bring Specter down. Besides, there's no Joe Sestak-like figure I can think of that could actually mount a serious campaign against Lugar and presumably the party establishment. Maybe Andre Carson... but Carson is an ally of the President and a loyal Party man. Hard to see that happening.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Why would he run as an Indendent?
Is anything other than ideology? That's obviously a big factor, but would he feel the party label is a hindrance? I have a hard time believing that.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
It's the Charlie Crist problem
If he runs as an indie (and there's a weak D candidate) he can piece together a coalition of his Republican loyalists, moderates, and most Democrats except for the most liberal of liberals. That gives him enough to win. But if he makes a full switch and runs as a D, how many of those Republican loyalists are going to come with him?

In my estimation, going over to our side of things would just validate all the things the wingnuts that want to primary Lugar are whispering about him, that he's a RINO, or a sellout, or whatever. And Republicans that would otherwise be open to voting for him, even as an independent, instead view him as a traitor to the party and enthusiastically vote, volunteer, and donate to Mourdock.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Spot on.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Can Lugar pull a Lieberman?


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure Indiana has a sore loser law in place


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I guess it depends
on how many moderate Republicans or conservative Republicans that like his responsible, non-insane way of governing, that would cross over.

Let's say the breakdown of the electorate is 36/41/24 like was in 2008 and give Lugar 85 percent of Democrats, 30 percent of Republicans, and 40 percent of Independents, he wins with 52.5 percent of the vote in a two-man race. And hat's probably selling him a little short with Independent voters.

Anyway, this is all speculation. Have you heard anything more about which candidates the Democrats might put up?

 

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
The Charlie Crist "problem"
would be to ignore history and run as an independent and not switch to Dem.

He's a slam dunk win one on one in a general, but three ways is an invitation to disaster, especially if like Florida there is a contested Dem primary.

[ Parent ]
I disagree
Lugar can win either way, but I think he brings strengths to an independent candidacy that Crist lacked.

I personally would prefer to see him run as a Dem, for the reasons you outlined in your other post, but my instincts lead me to think that running as a Dem would be more difficult.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Any chance he might throw the dice
And run for Senate? Running against Pence is probably a non-starter but there is at least a possibility Lugar won't be the nominee. And if he is Weinzapfel is young enough to build name rec for a future run.
[ Parent ]
Reading the article I guess not
Would most posters support Lugar in the unlikely event he switched?
[ Parent ]
Depends on whether he has any opposition of stature in the primary
And on whether he's going to move to the left any. I respect Lugar but he'd end up being the most conservative Dem in the Senate once Ben Nelson loses.

That said, I'd support him in the general, both as a Dem and probably as an independent, with the caveat that if we manage to end up with a Scott McAdams here that could change.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Party switchers always move
Particularly in this case since he is so close to the president.
[ Parent ]
Very true


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I couldn't care less if he is the most conservative Dem
Someone has to have that title after all.  I assume there would be a move to the left, but his great function would be two:  organizing the Senate and being a sure vote on judges, and having that seat "blue" for six years so it could be taken by someone more progressive in six years.

Bayh was a perfect Democrat for Indiana policy-wise (ingnore the douchiness).  He is most responsible for the pinkish-purple (instead of deep red) state.  To re-start that process the state needs a conservative Democrat running statewide (ideally without much douchiness).  

I can't see Lugar changing, but if he does he is the absolute poster child for American politics.  The Democratic party has to welcome him, and all voters like him, to the right wing of the party when he is shunned by the GOP.

Lugar standing on a stage with Obama wins Indiana for both, and moves a few percentage points blue in downballot races.  Again, I don't see it happening, but from a swing state perspective it would be cool to watch the ramifications play out.

[ Parent ]
Yeah...
Trading Evan Bayh for Dick Lugar wouldn't be that bad a deal, really.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Lugar is the only Republican I've ever voted for
and barring a potential candidate recruiting coup, teabagging, etc, I will vote for him again and proudly.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
Um, you'll have to explain yourself, HoosierD42......
Your signature says you're 22.  You were no older than 17 the last time Lugar was on anyone's ballot.  Of what "vote" do you speak?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
He could've been 18
So long as his birthday is between Feb. 21 and Election Day 2006, he would've been 18 in Nov. 2006 and would be just 22 now.  
[ Parent ]
I'm actually 23 as of Feb 8...
I'll change my signature here in a second. I voted for him in 2006.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
Then again...
he did only have a libertarian as his opponent.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
Specter
I think the Specter lesson is stronger than you might think.  If someone like Donnelly thinks he's going to be carved up, and also sees that the Republicans are going to nominate a wacko, then he looks at a D Senate Primary against a lifelong Republican as the only thing stopping him from being a Senator.  Indiana is more Republican than PA, but most likely the Republican candidate will not be of Toomey's strength (remember he was establishment AND tea party).  The Obama admin showed in the PA race that they didn't have the muscle to clear the Democratic field, and Lugar isn't an idiot.  I disagree that Specter lost because he pissed too many Dems off.  He lost because he was a Republican for decades, and in a Primary, when given the choice between a Democrat like Sestak (Donnelly) or a lifelong Republican like Specter (Lugar), the partisan Democrats are going to choose the Democrat.  Plus if it was Donnelly, he has his base in the NW, where there are a lot of Dem Primary voters.
[ Parent ]
I dunno
Donnelly is pretty conservative anyway. Sestak was able to make more of a contrast. PA was also a closed primary remember.
[ Parent ]
Sound points
However, there's a few differences that would be few important. First of all, I think the partisan Dem against Lugar would have to be a candidate that actually excites the base somewhat. Donnelly, the most likely candidate in this situation, doesn't do that. As conspiracy points out, he's pretty conservative himself... how does he draw a strong contrast with Lugar beyond "I've always been a Dem and he hasn't"? I don't know about how popular he is further north, but I don't see him as being able to drive turnout in places like Bloomington, nor is he going to be able to compete with Lugar in Marion County. All Donnelly has is Lake County and the rest of that area. That's why I mentioned Andre Carson (or Vi Simpson or some Monroe/Marion state rep).

I have no doubt that plenty of partisan Dems in Pennsylvania saw Specter's party switch for what it was, that is, a naked attempt at self-preservation, and voted against him solely for that reason. But I'd suspect Specter's abrasive personality and series of gaffes around the time of his switch made primary voters close their minds to him even faster than they might have normally. Dick Lugar doesn't really have that problem. Most Dems in the state might disagree with him on most issues but they don't hate him. There's not going to be much of a reaction of "Now that he's in our clutches, we'll show him!" if he switches. He'd probably lock up Indianapolis and what's left of the conservative Dems in the southern third of the state quite quickly.

With all that said, you're right about the White House's laughable inability to clear the primary field. Were I Lugar, contemplating a switch, I'd place no stock in promises of a clear primary.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Can the Republicans
do much of anything to help Lugar in the primary? Someone said above Lugar has a lot of favors to call in, but at the same time, what is the limit of his power?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I don't really know, to be honest
I like to think I know a decent amount about Indiana politics, but when you get down into the guts of the party organizations here I don't have a clue. I think a key question is what the county parties look like, at this point. I don't know how many of those are still run by standard establishment minions, and how many have been taken over by the nutters.

He is very, very lucky that IN has open primaries. Even Mitch McConnell's supposed dominance of the Kentucky Republicans couldn't save Trey Grayson last year... there's only so far the establishment can get you these days.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I hate to sound
so ignorant, but I'm a little unsure of exactly what the party leaders are supposed to do. Do they do anything besides contact local volunteers or others who are politically motivated enough to vote in a primary? And if such people, or whomever else might vote in a primary, just don't like the candidate, what are the party leaders going to do?

Also, what if the primary opponent is an established vote getter in the state, as opposed to a small time city council member or some political novice? Murdock might not be as in with establishment as Lugar, but he's not Rand Paul, either.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I couldn't see Lugar switching.
This is not a case like Crist of a relatively young ambitious politician with an eye on higher office who was already in a factional fight that transcended ideology (there was not much love lost between him and Jeb).  He's not an iconoclast who never fit into his party in the first place.  Or someone who ignored the local party and was more comfortable as a creature of Washington (which is what did Lieberman in FAR more than his position on Iraq).

Lugar has been the most popular and influential Republican in Indiana for decades.  There are generations of Republicans who respect him and saw him as a mentor.  He has plenty of chits to call in from party leaders all over the state.  He has his own people all throughout the party who he'll want to stick around to support.  Or put simply he has invested far too much over far too many years in the Republican Party.

And most importantly he's running in a non-closed primary in a year where only the Republicans will have a competitive Presidential primary.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
"Plenty of chits to call in from party leaders all over the state"
Indeed, with one of those party leaders being a guy named Mitch Daniels.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Todd Young as well.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Good point. And most of those chits would be forfeited
if Lugar went even merely to Indy (let alone to Dem) I assume.
I doubt he considers himself in much peril right now in his Primary. Otherwise, why would he feel free to be deliberately provoking the teabaggers?  
[ Parent ]
Because it's really fun?


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Louisiana State Senate special election today
Since the Senate is currently 19-19, this election will determine control (until the next party switcher if the Democrat wins, anyway).
Interesting election
Democrat is pretty conservative, but Republican is so much tea-bagger, that Democrat has a chance. Even in present-day Louisiana and in conservative district, which is SD-26. We shall see really soon...
[ Parent ]
Yeah, odds are 50/50 here.
I hope Granger wins.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Me too..
Democrats need a voice during redistricting process.. With Republicans having Governorship and state House only state Senate remains)))
[ Parent ]
It's going to be 5-1 at the end of the day tho.
I really don't see anyway around it one New Orelans-VRA district and 5 republicans.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Probabbly yes.
But Democrats need 1 that they can't lose, and at least 1 of 5 they can win in right year with right candidate..
[ Parent ]
Unless
the DOJ denies preclearance and requests two.  Roguemapper said that although it was not possible to create 2 compact VRA districts from 7, it is possible to create 2 compact districts from 6.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Cleo Fields
I remember his district. Trying to get 2 out of 8 was quite a mess in Louisiana

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Dems have a voice
Rep. Rick Gallot (D) is in charge of redistricting in the House, which is Republican controlled, and a Republican Senator is in charge of redistricting in the tied state Senate.  
[ Parent ]
That's good to know.
If Granger wins and the Senate goes 20-19 Dem (I am aware that it'll likely be flipped in November barring something near miraculous), do they get a slightly bigger say in redistricting?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Maybe
But as someone said above, there's not anything they would be able to do to prevent it from being a 5-1 map. Maybe they'd try to protect Richmond from a Baton Rouge candidate, but thats it.  
[ Parent ]
Assuming it will be 5-1 makes it even more important
California's 2001 dummymander was an epic fail because it did nothing to at least make the attempt at a possibly competitive, even if unlikely, seat out of the red areas by grouping the least red areas into one district rather than split them up between three.  

Here, which of the five areas is least red?  Baton Rougue?  It is plausible that Baton Rouge becomes more Democratic in 2018 or so, and of course that a Dem could beat a truly hideous Republican.  The difference between a 58/42 result in a district now and a 63/37 could be enormous in 2018 or 2020.

Redistricting needs to be forward looking, and having Dem say in creating the least red of the five districts.  

[ Parent ]
Well, DOJ could come in.
A second compact VRA district can be drawn quite well.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Baton Rouge
LA-06, the current BR district, will likely become much more Republican, because LA-02 will be taking in the black areas.  
[ Parent ]
LA
When I used the old data I was able to put together a compact majority-black district without going into Baton Rouge. Along with most of Orleans I had Plaquemines, most of Jefferson, St Charles, John the Baptist, St James, about half of Assumption, and part of Ascension. Would a contorted New Orleans to Baton Rouge district be legal if there's a cleaner alternative that fits the community-of-interest standard much better?

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Depends
What was the black %? The current district is over 60%, and I can't imagine the Justice Department approving a plan that would be only around 50-55%.  
[ Parent ]
about 51
Agree, it would have to be higher than that if they want to keep the VRA districts close to their 2000 counts. LA2 is 58% black based on 2010 data, but that isn't much lower than the 2000 count.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Thats not why
The reason the Dem has a chance is that he is every pit as conservative as Perry, but since this seat is so important to Dems, Granger has outraised Perry big time.  
[ Parent ]
Well, it seems Perry won ..
Narrowly, 51-49, and with Granger winning 3 parishes out of 4, but still won...Frankly speaking  - i prefer real 2-party system over 1 party dminance. Present day Louisiana (except Black areas) is no more... That's why i frequently root for Republicans, say, in New England, and for Democrats in Mountain states like Utah or Wyoming. It seems the same approach must be used for the South...
[ Parent ]
Portland (OR) Mayor
Portland is actually running a budget surplus. Refreshing in an area where the county actually had a separate temporary income tax a couple of years ago.

"He did a significant amount of damage to himself out of the blocks. Is he vulnerable to losing? Yes," says Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts. "[But] is he a viable candidate for re-election? Yes."

Lots of pluses and minuses. Adams started with a hiring freeze, and some increased fees (e.g. parking, public transit). Portland no longer even has minor league baseball.

http://wweek.com/portland/arti...

Among others, some are pushing for Earl Blumenauer (OR-03) to run for mayor in '12. If Earl runs for mayor, OR-03 is probably safe D (even in most redistricting scenarios).

/
former rep. steve horn
has died.

http://www.presstelegram.com/b...

amazingly for a non-southern state, he held something like a +10 district for the opposite party

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

Well
Tim Holden can sort of qualify for that, but his district is more like R+6.
[ Parent ]
I calculated the old CA-38 to be about D+7.5.
Clinton won 59.69% of the Clinton-Dole vote, 5 points better than than his share of the Dem-Rep vote nationwide. Gore won 60.84% of the Gore-Bush vote, 10.5 points better than his share of the Dem-Rep vote nationwide.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Lugar running as a Dem
Interesting stuff on Lugar.  I can't help but think how ironic this would be, in terms of Evan Bayh.  He just retired rather abruptly, probably thinking he couldn't  win as a Dem,  with the party base seeing him as too conservative and the rest of the voters seeing him as more liberal.  Then, Lugar, who is really a lot more conservative than Bayh comes in as a Democrat and wins handily.  I am sure this huge irony wouldn't be unnoticed by our Hoosier brethren.  Of course Lugar is more principled, he votes how he believes.  Bayh is more of the weather vane type, blowing with the most recent breeze that comes through.  
OR-01: Rep. Wu's staff confronted him on mental health before election
According the The Oregonian, most of Rep. David Wu's staff were concerned about his mental health, and were worried that his increasingly erratic behavior could cost him his seat. They were so concerned that they attempted an intervention just days before the election.

For quite a while there has been a slow trickle of news stories that have suggested that Rep. Wu may be suffering from mental health problems, but this seems like the most damning yet.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

The story's now on foxnews.com as well
This is a tough issue for me, in that on one hand Congressman Wu, like anyone else, deserves personal privacy when dealing with health issues.  But it sounds like this is impacting his ability to do his job.  We faced this issue here in Indianapolis in 2007, when Julia Carson sort-of went AWOL for a time and really never let anyone other than her very inner-circle know she had terminal lung cancer.  He owes it first to himself to get the help he sounds like he needs, and then owes at least some type of explanation to his district.
[ Parent ]
Perfect example of why The Oregonian is one of the country's best midsize papers
Unfortunately, though, as to the substance of the story: Rep. Wu clearly should have been put out to pasture years ago. It's time for Rep. Pelosi, Gov. Kitzhaber, and President Obama to lean hard on him to retire.

The good news for Democrats is that the bench in OR-01 is reasonably deep, and the district is safe Democratic and likely to stay that way. Suzanne Bonamici, the Beaverton-area state senator in charge of legislative redistricting this cycle, may be looking for a bigger job; Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian is also from the area.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
"Safe Democratic" seat is right, that Wu won in 2010 of all cycles...
...means just that.  A lot of smart Members ran great campaigns and lost.  It's amazing to me in hindsight, after learning of his foibles, that Wu survived.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Yup, he campaigned less than
Jamie Herrera.... and didn't even lift a finger the last few days before the election.
[ Parent ]
Is there any clue as to what the erratic behavior is about?
Marital problems drugs whatever etc. I know it seems gossipy to ask but really his ability to serve depends on the nature of the problem.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
An inference from a text from his son
suggests alcoholism.

If I understand correctly, the problems have been ongoing since '07. In '08, one of the local free weeklies (Willamette Week I think) endorsed Wu's primary opponent, a true "some dude" (some local engineer).

User St. Magnificent is right about some of the D bench. I suggested some others in the Friday DD, I think.

[ Parent ]
Louisiana SD-26 results, if you want to follow along
http://staticresults.sos.louis...

With the absentees (I'm assuming, since it's still 0 precincts reporting) in, the Dem is leading by 9.

Early Votes
Nathan Granger (D) 54.45% 1076
Jonathan Perry (R) 45.55% 900

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Holding with 5 precincts in.
Come on Granger!  Go all Norby Chabert on him!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Granger is still ahead
even though all the new precincts are from Acadia Parish, which is voting for Perry.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
10 of 106 precincts + Early Votes
Nathan Granger (D) 52.49% 1646
Jonathan Perry (R) 47.51% 1490

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Looking good so far
9 of 13 precincts in are from Acadia where Perry does best.  Yet Granger is up 53-47 now.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
the site shows Acadia as 28 precincts
Still, Vermilion where Granger is winning is only 4/58.  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Looks like a regional split
Granger is winning Vermillion Parish, while Perry is winning Acadia. If this holds up, Granger should win easily, as Vermillion is a much bigger share of the district.
[ Parent ]
Granger is from Vermillion.
He also owns an oil business in that area that employs ~1000 people, so he's not an unknown.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
makes sense
I assume Perry is from Acadia?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I don't know.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It seems logical.
So I'll guess he is.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
No
He lives in Kaplan, in Vermilion Parish. I assumed he lived in Acadia too, so I looked and he does not. His district is in Vermilion and Cameron, which is not in the district.  
[ Parent ]
Granger
just busted out a lead in Lafayette.  Dems dominate LA special elections.  Come on Granger!  I think he's going to win by 8-10.  You heard it here first.

Where the eff is SSP labs tonight?  This is a big one.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
RRH Labs are open
We just aren't as smart. No math either.  
[ Parent ]
RRH Labs almost certainly
judged the race better than I just did.

What a horrible prognostication.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Deep South races are really hard to project
Unless you know a lot about the individual precincts. In this race you have 90-10 precincts for the Democrat and 90-10 precincts for the Republican. It's crazy.
[ Parent ]
Don't make excuses for me Johnny
I'm a horrible fuck up.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Hey, I thought it was going to be a regional split, but apparently not.

[ Parent ]
Lafayette Parish
Granger trailed by 1 vote in early votes, now with 2 precincts in, leads. He leads in every parish except Acadia right now.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Dare I say ...
ganja break?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Just tightened up quite a bit
41/106 precincts in, it's down to a 101-vote lead for Granger.
[ Parent ]
So Acadia is
actually "bluer" than Vermillion.

Acadia was 72-26 McCain
Vermillion 73-25 McCain
Lafayette 65-34 McCain
St. Landry 51-48 McCain

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Republican pulls ahead...
61/106, Perry ahead by 4%.
[ Parent ]
78/106, still 52-48
Granger did end up winning Lafayette (unfortunately for him, only by a 68-vote margin). And now he's up in Acadia.
[ Parent ]
One more precinct popped in and shaved the margin to 3%.

[ Parent ]
89/106, it's 51.3 to 48.7 for the Republican.
It is possible that Granger makes up a 500-vote deficit with what's left; it is also possible than Perry pulls way ahead. This is a nailbiter.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, now I'm willing to bet it's over
99/106 in, still 51.3 - 48.7 for Perry, still a 500-vote margin.
[ Parent ]
And that's that. All precincts are in.
GOP takes control of the state senate in Louisiana.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, it's over.
Granger lost 52-48.  Oh well, at least it won't make much of a difference.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Granger ended up winning (very narrowly) Acadia, Lafayette, and St. Landry Parishes.
Perry ended up with a 53-47 win in Vermillion.
[ Parent ]
Yes
But he actually had a good showing, considering it was thought lost for a while until recently.  Also, Granger and Perry were very similar ideologically.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
wtf?
I leave real quick for a shower and when i come back, Granger's decent-sized lead is now a Perry lead, and the Perry-Granger dynamic has flipped in Acadia and Vermilion...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It's ok
They both were very similar ideologically from what I've read.  Also, the Dems will still have a voice in redistricting.  A Dem State House member is assigned to the redistricting group.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
See my prediction of an
8-10 point Granger victory above if you want an ego boost.  Boy did I eff that up.

And yeah the early vote edges for the candidates in Vermillion and Acadia turned on their heads.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Think of it this way.
Special elections like these are rather under-the-radar.  At least it happened now instead of in November where the Dems would lose the majority if they didn't now.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
You can take solace
That in HI last November Dems won a 24-1 majority in the Senate.  Nowhere else in the US is there such a lopsided majority.  Also, in most other states, the Dems can only go up from where they are.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
And Perry takes a commanding lead.
I have a feeling I made the single most off-base election-night prediction of the whole cycle above.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
That's all folks
The South is truly gone.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
In a way, I guess it had to happen.
No longer will we have George Wallace or Lester Maddox on our conscience.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Adios and Goodbye.

[ Parent ]
More like hasta mañana
;-)
[ Parent ]
NM-Sen: Hector Balderas (D) reportedly going to run.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...
New Mexico State Auditor Hector Balderas has all but settled on running for the U.S. Senate seat that will be vacated by Sen. Jeff Bingaman next year, according to a Democratic source familiar with his thinking.

Balderas, who is considered a rising star in his party for becoming the youngest Hispanic statewide elected official in the country in 2006, has already contacted the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, made phone calls to donors and consultants and taken the initial steps to build a campaign team, the source told POLITICO Saturday.

"It's 95 percent.  He's all but in," said the source.



Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I like it, we need to get ahead of the curve on elected Hispanics to Senate & Governor......
We have Menendez, but he's at his ceiling for a career.

Balderas is young and a rising star and we need more of that to have a Hispanic on the national ticket in the future.  And Obama having broken the Senate jinx, Senators will be better-positioned going forward.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Think the congressmen will defer?
Nothing worse than giving up a congressional seat to lose in a primary for another race.  Of course, it's possible that Heinrich or Lujan could beat Balderas, but would they want to fight it out?
[ Parent ]
Maybe.
But statements from them will be necessary to know whether they will.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Balderas has a free pass, right?
I assume it will be his off year, which means it would be pretty dumb to not take his shot at the Senate, regardless of Heinrich or Lujan.  (On the other hand if both Heinrich and Lujan run, maybe Balderas would be missing the boat by not going after a House seat instead.)
[ Parent ]
Yes, he was re-elected in 2010 and is termed out in 2014.

[ Parent ]
Hmmm
The last thing Dems need here is a devisive primary split along racial lines. Good move from Balderas to get out the gate first.
[ Parent ]
Divisive

[ Parent ]
Definitely supporting him over Heinrich
I always forget about Menendez and getting a more visible Hispanic from a border state is a good idea.  The GOP got some great VP choices in 2010 and we need to do the same.  Or hell, Presidential choices as Martinez and Rubio could certainly run in 2016 and be viable.
[ Parent ]
FL pushing Prez primary to Jan. 31
It's in violation of DNC/RNC rules.  The RNC is pushing back, but FL is being stubborn.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

oh boy, this again!
last time the RNC was much less strict than the DNC. I think it stripped FL of half its delegates and called it a day, as opposed to the DNC which originally said it would not seat any FL delegates and made the candidates promise not to even campaign there. This time I doubt the DNC really cares, but I'm curious as to whether the RNC will impose more severe penalties than in 2008.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The battle of egos.
The state wants to feel as important in the primaries as NH while the committees want the status quo.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Well
the article says the FL politicians don't really mind going after NH, SC, etc. they just want to be before Super Tuesday.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Hard to do..
After all, the convention is in Tampa, after all...
[ Parent ]
Good for them
Iowa and New Hampshire have no God given right to go first. And big state residents should not be perpetually disenfranchised in Presidential nominating contests.

Yeah, yeah, money grassroots blah, blah, blah. Well, sorry, but the real race in November costs real money too.

[ Parent ]
How are they disenfranchised?
Arguably Florida decided the GOP race in 2008. If it were to go first it will be meaningless with no delegates on offer. If they move it back to follow IA, NH, NV, SC it could likely be decisive again, particularly if Romney wins New Hampshire and Nevada. Still, I read a quote about how the whole thing could hurt the Republicans for the general which is pure nonsense just as it was for the Dems three years ago. Boy, it really is that long!
[ Parent ]
I do remember
the "Obama will get blown out in Michigan and Florida because he disenfranchised their delegates" crowd.

It's a bit more awkward for Republicans this year since they are holding their convention in Florida.

[ Parent ]
Awkward
But not a massive deal. Floridians will decide whom to award their electoral votes based on the president's record not on how his opponent won the nomination.
[ Parent ]
Want a good laugh?
Do a search for the blogs claiming that McCain was an even bet to win Massachusetts because of his Scots-Irish heritage.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Those PUMA people
Sure had some entertaining arguments!
[ Parent ]
I don't think
it was a PUMA person that exclusively made such an argument, or at least not the one I am thinking of, although I am sure they said lots of stupid shit.  I tried to find the conservative site that I remembered making it, but I couldn't. I did, however, come across some sites that talked about a big McCain win leading into the fall. Those were highly amusing.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Post-convention bounce I guess
Some on our own side maintain Obama only won because of the crash ignoring the fact he had already moved back ahead before Lehman went under.
[ Parent ]
If this sticks, it's a lucky break for Romney
I suspect, of the likely candidates, he's perhaps the only one who'll have the bonafides right from the get-go to run and organize a statewide race as massive as a Florida primary. He did rather well in Florida in 2008, too, considering the bump McCain got out of South Carolina just a few weeks prior. Gingrich might have some pull in the north, I suppose, but, yeah, this would be great for Romney.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Huckabee was almost a nonfactor here
So i can't imagine gingrich will be strong, unless he just won SC.  especially since guiliani's votes probably would have gone to Romney or McCain, so the "southern Good ol' Boy" candidate probably won't do very well.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Gingrich is no good ol' boy...
He's not like Barbour and doesn't have that same "bubba" appeal.  
[ Parent ]
i know, but
if barbour's done by then, being the only southern candidate will probably get him some votes he wouldn't normally get otherwise.  In terms of temperament, i always say gingrich as a midwestern politician.  a social conservative willing to except some aspects of bigger government if it's the policies he himself likes.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
So now.....
Marco Rubio and Rick Scott get to be the popular kids while Kelly Ayotte isn't so special anymore. Aside from Rubio, though, the endorsements I would want in FL are Jeb Bush and Dan Webster. The old guard in the state loves Bush, and Webster has connections on every level of state government and is probably the most popular of the Central Fla. Republicans.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Actually, Romney underperformed in Florida (as he did everywhere in 2008).
People were expecting a close race, with him having a good chance of winning. McCain was supposed to be weak because Florida was a Republican-only, closed primary.

And then Romney lost.

I remember some news reporters saying that Romney's stronghold was Orange County - and on election night, Romney was losing it.

Funny story: At one point in the 2008 Republican primary, Romney said he would win Iowa, then New Hampshire, then Michigan, then Florida, then sweep the South and win places like California on Super Tuesday. It turned out that he lost every one of those states, except for Michigan.

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
Didn't he also win New Hampshire? n/t

[ Parent ]
No
McCain did.
[ Parent ]
Mac is back! Mac is back! Mac is back!


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
next week's 2010 Census state releases: AL CO HI MO NV OR UT & WA
Hi James L

I would suggest you begin to include in every post here the link to the twin threats in DailyKos elections :)
.
I would suggest to all commenters to begin moving en mass over there.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
.
en masse*

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Nah
SSP until the last dog dies!
[ Parent ]
I like it better here
Fewer Kosacks.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
What do you mean?
Alan Grayson should primary Bill Nelson!
[ Parent ]
I couldn't help myself
And not respond.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I miss Alan.
Not fair that the Republicans get to have a monopoly on the crazy lately!

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
Ok fine, I'll run for public office!
Then I can be the Democratic answer to Michelle Bachmann (basically, I'll accuse John Boehner of being a Martian plant, who wants to impose Martian-style fascism (which makes Earth fascism look tame!)0

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
David Wu?

[ Parent ]
Alan Grayson AND Corinne Brown, please
Most entertaining primary ever?

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I'm not moving (at least not yet)
They haven't even introduced us over at DK. I don't know that they've promised us a FP post on DK on the merger --

but I know we've expected one. While some at DK are aware of SSP, I don't think many know us beyond a link on the blogroll. (btw, where did the DK blogroll go?)

I guess David N will post all of the daily digests at DK now (crossposted here for the moment), but am not clear on that. What happens to JamesL, Crisitunity, and JeffMD? Are they going to move to their own endeavors, so they too can make a living? Is David N the only one getting paid by DK?

Also important are the headline news bits, such as polls and candidate announcements. Does that all get consolidated under Steve S's banner?

And what happens to the weekend open digests, where we all effectively open up the discussion somewhat beyond regular elections and get to know each other?

In addition, I'm not impressed by this DK group thing. Is SSP now in the same category as the Foodie of the moment / Kossacks in some random red state group?

I had been waiting for their intro to SSP FP post, as the appropriate time to post the diary I've been proposing. I've been hoping that it would answer some of these questions -- for us and for the DK community.

Without it, I'd guess it'd be up to me to sum up the merger if/when I do post my diary. And that seems wrong on several levels.

I'm still not sure whether I'm enjoying the last great days of SSP.

[ Parent ]
More unknowns
When? Is the merger officially complete? When will the SSP URL be shut down? Or will it bingo into DKE?

I think I remember promises that the current database of diaries (FP and user) will be carried over. Will they become DK diaries, searchable in that database? What happens to usernames that don't match (or are all our usernames incompatible in that way, given the reliance on user ID numbers?) Or does swingstateproject.com become a legacy site, searchable, but closed to new postings?

[ Parent ]
So
1) We don't have a target date yet for the merger being complete. As I'm sure you understand, Daily Kos is still adjusting to the roll-out of the new software. Once that situation is fully settled, then we'll be discussing the port-over.

2) No, the SSP URL is not going anywhere. The main page will probably redirect to DKE, but the archives will remain.

3) Your memory is not correct. It is simply not possible for us to port user accounts over to Daily Kos. In fact, that's why I specifically asked that people here start creating accounts at Daily Kos if they don't already have one. (I think it might be a good idea if you re-read my announcement post.)

4) We're going to try to port over the old diaries (and even older Movable Type-era posts) to Daily Kos. That's not a top priority, though, and probably won't take place for some time. As I say at #2 above, this site will remain as a searchable archive, but closed to new posts and comments.

[ Parent ]
I do wish you well
and I thank you for taking my concerns seriously.

Question repetition is sort of my habit as a quasi-journalist, to see if things have changed in any way.

I see the blogroll now. But SSP is no longer there. (It was pretty prominent in DK3.) One would think that elections are important to the DK community. But the evidence, based on links from the current FP, suggests otherwise.

And that emphasizes what I was getting at with the "SSP is in the same category as other groups" thing.

Since SSP is no longer on the blogroll, there's no way to get to elections.dailykos.com from the DK front page.

DKE does appear as "just another group" ---
aka to find DKE, I have to follow these steps from the DK front page

1) Click Groups
2) Click "Most Followed"
3) Click "Next" seven times

DKE is currently something like the 140th biggest group. In other words, DKE is lost in the weeds of the DK site. Sure that would grow after the merger is complete, but DKE would still be hidden without a link from the FP.

If I were just parachuting into the Internet, I'd conclude that DK cares about issues, perhaps even Mother Talkers, Street Prophets, and Congress, but not elections.

Minor point -- In any case, even an eventual move of SSP diaries to DK (response 4) suggests some harmonization of user accounts (response 3). But that's a tech detail -- actually possible with a second range of account UIDs, probably as members of a dedicated GID, but at best weird given with the duplication of usernames.

[ Parent ]
You're reading a lot into very little
I know you understand that the merger is far from complete - in fact, it's barely only begun, with the softest of launches in the form of cross-posting content here and at DKE.

DKE will be featured prominently at Daily Kos. I am sure there will be a link to elections.dailykos.com somewhere on the front page once we transition.

But more importantly, many of our pieces will be cross-posted to the Daily Kos frontpage itself. That is, pieces will not only appear at elections.dailykos.com, but they'll also appear at www.dailykos.com. And when they do, it will be clear exactly where they came from. Take a look at this post:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

It was first posted to DKE. (Well, it was actually first posted to SSP, but that's beside the point.) Right under the title, it says "By David Nir" (that's me) "for Daily Kos Elections." That will happen with every post that makes its way from DKE to the DK front page.

If I were just parachuting into the Internet, I'd conclude that DK cares about issues, perhaps even Mother Talkers, Street Prophets, and Congress, but not elections.

Only if you didn't actually read the front page. While the DK FP covers a broad range of stuff, it also covers... elections. That's why our stuff will be cross-posted there. Not everything - the weedy, geeky stuff, like Crisitunity's recent Texas post, will stay just on DKE. But the digest, important polls, and other big news, will all get cross-posted.

In any case, even an eventual move of SSP diaries to DK (response 4) suggests some harmonization of user accounts (response 3).

Nope. We'd port old diaries over as flat HTML files, not as database entries in the DK4 db.

[ Parent ]
until the final move
Could you please put the DKE link under the blogroll on SSP?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Sure
Done.
[ Parent ]
Thanks a bunch
I tried finding it earlier, I found it, but they didn't make it easy.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
How do you find it on the DK site?
I just tried and I didn't see it...
[ Parent ]
Blog roll here
Right hand side and scroll down. There is a link.
[ Parent ]
I was actually referring to when starting from the Dailykos home page

[ Parent ]
None of the others are getting paid
but they are still contributing
[ Parent ]
Yes
Quite disappointed in the lack of clarity myself.
[ Parent ]
I'm sorry you feel this way
If you have any specific questions, I'd be happy to try to answer them.
[ Parent ]
It just seemed to me
That the intro comment from Markos you posted below was disappointing in the sense it seemed like a throwaway second thought in a daily open thread. It was my understanding that some effort would be made to try to maintain the same kind of tone there as exists here. I don't see how you achieve that by beginning cross posting before any kind of presentation from your good self. So instead we have happening straight away what people feared. The best example being calls for an Alan Grayson primary challenge to Senator Nelson. I understand quite clearly what the site will become I just question how it is being done.
[ Parent ]
Well
There's no perfect universe. We need a way to do a soft-launch of Daily Kos Elections - to get a feel for how things work, to integrate with Susan Gardner's workflow, etc. - without doing a full-blown announcement. That invariably means that some people will find their way over to those posts before we've "prepped" them. Don't worry, prep `em we shall.

And I looked into this whole "calls for an Alan Grayson primary challenge" - LOL! It was one comment! A two-line comment, at that. If you are ready to decide that SSP culture is going to die a gruesome death on account of one comment, well, I'm not sure I can help you there. But I hope you'll have a little more faith than that!

[ Parent ]
Sigh
I guess I had best just shut up then.
[ Parent ]
I see
That there were one or two more comments on the Nelson theme in today's digest over at DK. I wanted to say, I thought you handled yourself very well. As I mentioned in another comment, someone could start arguing that Grayson should primary Nelson right here at SSP, and they'd be welcome to do so. People seem to forget, but we've had Jennifer Brunner partisans and Steve Novick partisans and so on for years. The site survived all that, and we even occasionally had illuminating discussions on those topics.
[ Parent ]
Seems clear from the start
This site stops existing.  elections.dailykos.com has the same content from the moderator/lead people.  The new colors and formatting are different (and as of now not as user-friendly imo, but that is just a detail).  The new site is basically in beta, so this site will exist a bit longer.  Eventually it will redirect to the new site.

Aside from page formatting, the only real changes are three:
David gets paid... the formatting is different... there is a likelihood but no guarantee of more people participating

[ Parent ]
Yep
I think you've pretty much nailed the key points, Tommy. As I mentioned elsewhere, the DK tech team is still ironing out bugs and UI stuff, so user-friendliness will improve. I actually think, though, that if you go to elections.dailykos.com, you'll see that navigating around there is not too different than it is around here.
[ Parent ]
Not to beat the dead horse, but the one big difference is formating
Look at
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

abgin's comment about Senate races.  On SSP that would format as no more than seven lines of text.  On DKE, it is ten lines.

One nice thing about SSP is sometimes people write up to three paragraphs of interesting stuff in the comments, and two paragraphs is pretty common.  With formatting so narrow it makes reading and seeing depth of threads difficult.

In contrast the right side column is double the size of what is on SSP... even though the right side stuff is consistent on all pages and much, much shorter than typical comments sections.  

Pu another way, screen sizes and resolutions vary a lot, but on mine, your comment above as I'm typing this formats at 13" across my screen, while abgin's comment on DKE is only 8" at its widest... with eight inches of useless whitespace to the right of it.  Cut that 4.5" right column in half, and at least you get up to 10.5" for the comment which isn't as good as the 13" on SSP but it is considerably better.

At minimum, the right side stuff should be formatted at half the pixels that it is now to increase the readability of comments.

[ Parent ]
Hmm
For something like that, I strongly encourage you to post in elfling's next diary. She's one of the project managers and provides updates and solitics feedback. I know the tech crew is taking a much-needed weekend off (which I think includes Monday, since that's a holiday), but she should be back soon. I don't know if this is the kind of design decision that is open to change, but if it is, she'll hopefully be able to tell you.
[ Parent ]
Well, my current account on Daily Kos
is essentially banned (i can login, but can't post). Probably for "non-progressive behavoir...")))
[ Parent ]
All good questions...
With the last sentence being particularly poignant.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Markos announced the move
Here:

We've known him as "DavidNYC" the last nine years, but today he becomes David Nir -- the newest employee of Daily Kos. David will be the site's political director. He'll port over his Swing State Project to Daily Kos and transform it into this site's Elections vertical, manage our polling and Orange to Blue candidate fundraising efforts, get our neglected Electoral Scoreboard back into fighting shape, and kick off a bunch of new projects heading into the 2012 elections. -- kos

I was pretty sure you were aware of this, no?

In any event, before we formally move everything over to Daily Kos, we're cross-posting content at both sites. You can participate here, there, or at both places. I know I've already seen a few of you pop up at both sites. We will be very sure to alert the community here before the final change-over actually takes place.

To try to answer all of your many other questions:

1) The DK blogroll is at the bottom of the DK home page now. Scroll all the way down.

2) James, Crisitunity (aka David Jarman), and Jeff have all told me that they plan to keep contributing to SSP/DKE. (I mentioned this in my initial announcement.) I am the only person getting hired by Daily Kos. As you may know, James is a law student and both Jeff and David are otherwise employed.

3) Steve's roundup will be folded into the Daily Digest.

4) Weekend open threads are not going anywhere.

5) I don't understand what you mean by "is SSP now in the same category...". Daily Kos Elections is its own sub-site, just as each other group created on DK is its own sub-site. You can access it at elections.dailykos.com/. The content there is pure SSP/DKE - nothing from foodies or whathaveyou.

[ Parent ]
Not planning on moving 'til the last second
Mainly because SSP is about ten thousand times easier to read.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
This this and this
although when procrastinating I think i will look at the comments over there and add to them, as I have been doing sporadically.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen "polling" amuses yet again......
Their Obama job approval today?:  44-54.  As in, 44% approve, 54% disapprove.

This while everyone else has Obama above water by a decent margin.  Gallup had 51-42 yesterday (today's not out yet)!  A glance at the Real Clear Politics chart shows the starkness of Rasmussen's incompetence.

Rassy really is a complete joke.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Well, they dramatically oversample republicans..
...so, that's probably right when 70% of those polled are conservative...
[ Parent ]
The LV model does make a difference
But it would when you get to say who the likely voters are. The PPP national poll isn't perfect either. Their Kos poll and their own poll found 49-46 and 47-48 over the same sample days. MoE and all that but still strange. Gallup have done that a few times with USAToday.
[ Parent ]
The simultaneous PPP polls are helpful and very informative......
They teach the point that there really is random error.

That's why "totality of polling" is the way to go.

And the totality of polling says that Obama is clearly above water now.  Not by a lot, but in the same place Dubya was for much of 2004, when he won reelection.  And there's a good chance right now that the GOP might end up with a nominee clearly worse than Kerry; I'd say their A-list, with Pawlenty/Thune/Daniels, are Kerry-level, and everyone else clearly worse.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
And because it is daily
It drags down the whole average because there are more data points.
[ Parent ]
And the latest Gallup poll shows Obama at 48% A - 44% D
A really good day for Obama must have rolled off.
[ Parent ]
Makes more sense than 44-54
Gallup's thing is it swings about quite wildly in either direction. As you would expect from a tracking poll.
[ Parent ]
Top Christie advisor: W.H. exploratory committee being considered
He meant
a PAC, the writer originally misunderstood him.  
[ Parent ]
Oh, then whatever
Though, to be fair, it is of some importance, given I suspect Christie can raise a ton of dough and that'll be useful for whoever he endorses (probably Romney or Giuliani or whichever front-runner candidate isn't the Tea Partier).  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
prob just trying to keep himself in the news
but if he does run, he's going to have about three hours of himself saying he won't run to combat. yes, i know obama said the same thing, but not as often, or with the vigor as christie has.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
missed GOP's response.
i retract previous comment.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
From
Egypt to Wisconsin with love. Egyptian protester shows his solidarity with the protesters in Madison:

http://twitpic.com/419nfm

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

The same people who called the Egyptian
protesters thugs and supported Mubarak are now calling the Wisconsin protester thugs.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
GRRRRRRR
Warning: if you have high blood pressure or are prone to get angry easily, this may not be for you.

Check out this clip and tell me that Scott Walker isn't a gigantic turd of a human being for lying through his teeth. I honestly can't remember the last time I wanted to jump through a screen and strangle someone. I'm not particularly fond of recalls over each and every objection, but he's well deserving of one, as are the Republicans in the legislature. I hope the Wisconsin Democratic party sends out e-mails to raise money to Democrats around the country; if others are even remotely as pissed as I am, they will have all the money it needs.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It would help if I included the link:
http://www.capitalgainsandgame...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
baker
Does anyone know any good resources on Thurbert Baker (ex-GA AG to jog your memory)? As part of Black History Month, I have to write an encyclopedic biography on him. Any good candidate summary or print book I'd be interested in - I will peruse the tag section of the site once I have time, but if someone can give me a hand that'd be amazing.
Another party switch in Mississippi. State Senator Ezell Lee now a Republican
Republicans now control the Mississippi State Senate by a 27-24 margin.

http://majorityinms.com/2011/0...

MUST see
What a gerrymandered district Lee has, made to be 42% Black, will anyway be changed now http://majorityinms.com/2011/0...
Does anyone know of an uglier district?

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
It's more surprising
for me that some conservative Democratic legislators (i know 6-8 in Louisiana, 5-6 and Mississippi, 2-3 in Alabama (even after 2010 bloodbath there) and so on), who are more conservative then at least some Republicans there and would fit nicely into Republican caucus, still remain Democrats. It would be much easier for them to run for reelection as Republicans..

Or that there are still canddidates like Granger, who run as a conservative Democrats in district like Saturday's SD-26 in Louisiana. And rather successfully (Granger got over 48% and probabbly would win without OFA story) in a district, where main parish is about R+27...

[ Parent ]
DCCC raises $4.4 million in Jan
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outraised their GOP counterparts in the first month of the year, but they still carry $18.6 million in debt from last cycle and used little of the $4.4 million they brought in during January to pay down that debt.

According to monthly reports filed Sunday with the Federal Election Commission, the National Republican Congressional Committee raised just over $3 million during January. The NRCC still has $10.5 million of their own debt, same as they carried at the end of December, after paying down $1.5 million since the November elections.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Debts aside
This is good news considering notpjorourke guessed that the NRCC would raise twice the DCCC because of their winning the majority.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Impressive, and re debt that's not really an issue......
These party committees are perpetual and as such can and do pay down debt to whatever extent doing so doesn't hamper them strategically and tactically.

But outraising the NRCC this first month is very impressive and surprising.  If ever there were a high fundraising gap against us, January 2011 would have been when I'd have guessed it.

Hope they can keep it up.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Arkansas 01 & 02
I want to see if Freshman Rick Crawford and Freshman Tim Griffin will get flipped this next election. Re-districting will play a big part. Rick Crawford isn't very personable and won only 51% in an overly republican year. Any thoughts on the Arkansas Delta?
My two cents.
We need to shoot for one solid dem district that focuses on getting rid of Griffith. He is clearly the strongest and should be targeted so as he won't be that big of target for Pryor. There was a map on Red Racing Horses, I think it was on an open thread.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 246 comments

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