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SSP Daily Digest: 2/18

by: Crisitunity

Fri Feb 18, 2011 at 3:08 PM EST


• AZ-Sen: After some rumors yesterday that she wasn't getting much traction with her phoning around, DHS Sec./ex-Gov. Janet Napolitano confirmed today that she wasn't going to run for the open Senate seat in Arizona, preferring to remain in the Obama administration. (Roll Call has a list of some of the weedier Dem possibilities, beyond the top tier of Rep. Gabby Giffords and Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon: Rep. Ed Pastor, Board of Regents vice chair Fred DuVal, former state party chair Don Bivens, 2010 AG candidate Felicia Rotellini, and current state party chair/2010 Treasurer candidate Andrei Cherny.) On the GOP side, Rep. Jeff Flake seems already positioning himself for the general while opening himself up for a challenge from the nutty right, telling the birthers to "accept reality." Flake also just picked up an endorsement from a similar budget-focused, social-issues-downplaying prominent House member, Paul Ryan.

• IN-Sen: State Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who plans to soon announce his GOP primary challenge to Richard Lugar (with next Tuesday the more-or-less official launch date), leaked a few poll numbers from an internal. He says that "just over half" of GOP primary voters are inclined to re-elect Lugar, while Lugar pulls in only 27% support among self-described tea-partiers. The poll didn't "include" a head-to-head between Mourdock and Lugar, which I'll assume means they aren't reporting results that were pretty heavily in Lugar's favor, rather than that they just accidentally forgot to poll that particular question. Here's new one piece of ammo that tea partiers can use against Lugar to make their point that he's gone Washington, though: a revelation that Lugar stays in a hotel when he visits Indiana (Lugar owns a farm in-state, but conditions there are "rustic").

• PA-Sen: Quinnipiac is out with another Pennsylvania poll, one that finds Bob Casey Jr. in better shape than their previous poll, where he was in decent shape too. He beats a Generic R 45-35 (up from 43-35 in December), and his approvals are up to 44/24 (from 39/29). Voters approve of Barack Obama (51/44) and Pat Toomey (41/21) as well, in another indication of ebbing anger.

• VA-Sen: Tell the ground crew to break out the tarps, because we've got a Kaine delay. Ex-Gov. Tim Kaine, at the top of the Dem establishment's wish list for the open Senate seat, is announcing that he won't have anything to announce when he addresses tomorrow's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. He still sounds genuinely conflicted; expect an announcement "later in the month or early next month."

• VT-Sen: He stopped well short of actually announcing anything, but Dem-turned-Republican state Auditor Tom Salmon seems to be moving apace toward an uphill challenge against Bernie Sanders, saying he'll announce his decision on March 4 or 5. He's looking more committed in that he's leaving his day job: he also just announced he won't run for another term as Auditor.

• WV-Gov: The overcrowded (and likely low-turnout) Democratic primary in West Virginia may be decided by a few thousand votes, so any possible advantage counts here. And here's one for SoS Natalie Tenannt, the only Dem woman running: she just got the endorsement of EMILY's List.

• CA-36: The Republicans have managed to scrape up at least one credible candidate for the special election in the dark-blue 36th, where the main battle in the top 2 primary will be fought between Democrats Janice Hahn and Debra Bowen but conceivably he could sneak into the final round if he consolidates all the district's GOP votes. Mike Webb is City Attorney for Redondo Beach (popu. 63K).

• MN-06, MN-08: This is an interesting possibility for ex-state Sen. Tarryl Clark, who lost last year to Michele Bachmann in the GOP-leaning 6th... although it's entirely dependent on the redistricting pen. There's the possibility that her town of St. Cloud (to the west of the Twin Cities) may get appended to the 8th, which starts in the metro area's northern exurbs and heads up to Duluth. A run against vulnerable GOP frosh Chip Cravaack in a Dem-leaning district in a presidential year would be a much better bet for her. The question would be, though, whether Clark would have much luck in the DFL primary if she has to run against someone from the Iron Range, which tends to be insular-minded and would still be the bulk of the district's population.

• SD-AL, FL-02: I don't know how many of you were pining for a 2012 rematch from Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (about which there were some rumors this week), and I really can't imagine that any of you were hoping for a return engagement from ur-Blue Dog Allen Boyd, but it's looking like neither one is on track to happen. Both are rumored to be about to take on K Street lobbying jobs instead, which is, of course, not the usual comeback path.  
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/18
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SSP Daily Digest: 2/18 | 176 comments
DSCC
raises $2.63 million in January. Breaking their own record. They are still $8.78 mill in the red though.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/-...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

I wonder if Mike Webb...
Can make it into the general in CA-36. Remember that post-Prop 14, CA now has a "jungle primary" that has the top two finishers in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, move onto the general election. I guess it will depend on how enthused GOPers are about this election (and whether or not it's on the same day as the special election on state taxes).  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
It's looking like...
the primary will be sometime in April, and the top-two runoff would be in June to coincide with the special election on state taxes.  Harman announced a few days ago she'd officially resign from Congress on February 28th, at which time Jerry Brown can then call for a special election.

What I still don't understand, thanks to these freaking confusing laws, is if a candidate gets over 50% in the primary, do we still have that person and 2nd place person go at it again in the general election?

[ Parent ]
Not for special elections
But it is essentially required for regular elections (otherwise you would have to hold the runoff in December, as LA did and will do again).  
[ Parent ]
Redondo Beach
may well be redrawn into the same leg. districts (CA state senate and assembly) as the four neighboring wealthy Republican towns on the Palos Verdes peninsula by the new Citizens Redistricting Commission. (the peninsula is presently carved out in the 2000 maps and gerrymandered with OC areas)

So I'm speculating this guy is probably running to increase his name and fundraising recognition hoping for a more conservative state district to run in next time.

And in this CA-36 June special a Republican could easily make it into a top two runoff if Bowen and Hahn sufficiently split the Dem vote and the winner gets <50% forcing that runoff. (of course the Dem will win that)

[ Parent ]
Certainly makes sense, though likely doesn't matter
The Palos Verdes peninsula is Republican, but not very heavily so, and only about 70,000 people total.  The entire surrounding area is quite Democratic, so it should be able to be easily absorbed no matter how the district is drawn (assuming a non-toolbox Dem canidate).
[ Parent ]
Oh, jeez! Marcy Winograd...
May be running... AGAIN! And even funnier, Janice Hahn's campaign may be pushing her to do it!

And btw, here's the letter that everyone in LA is talking about.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
If he is the only Republican candidate
- why not? A no-name Republican candidate in 2010 got 35%, and he seems at least credible. If Winograd enters the race - then almost for sure. But if there will be second Republican candidate (no matter how weak) then - very unlikely..
[ Parent ]
I suspect continuing limbo in AZ
Until word from Giffords herself. I'm quite certain there will be a serious GOP primary so maybe it won't hurt too much. But, as I alluded to in another thread, it is quite a sad state of affairs when Republicans get the likes of Flake, Bruning in NE, Allen in VA, Rehberg in MT, Salmon in VT and maybe Carcieri in RI while Dems must resort to begging Tim Kaine to run and hoping a woman shot in the head less than two months ago can recover in time.
Probably Heller too

[ Parent ]
NV
Shelly Berkley is the exact Dem equivalent of Heller, and she's running IIRC.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Not in yet

[ Parent ]
But likely...
I can't say too much in public...

But let's just say Shelley may very well be digging in her heels at this point, which actually is surprising me. I did NOT think she'd still want to run with Heller jumping in and Heller sporting good GOP primary numbers. Either Shelley's internal polling shows different results or she's so fed up with House life that she's ready to take a crap shoot on this Senate race.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Anything you can impart about the prospects...
For a VRA (Latino-majority) seat being drawn in Las Vegas?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
VERY likely as well!
Nevada has a sizable Latin@ population (at least 26%), so it's virtually a necessity to have at least one majority-minority district. And since Clark County is only about 50% white, there's a possibility we may even end up with two minority-majority Vegas Valley districts.

I know this sounds terrible, but it really all depends on who NV-01 and NV-04 are drawn for. Unless Shelley decides at the last minute to scrap her Senate run, her old seat will be open and there will be a shiny new seat that may or may not have Dina Titus' name written all over it.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I take your word for it
I've learned my lesson in that regard!
[ Parent ]
Heh. Thanks!
I'd like to think I was at least somewhat useful here in providing an insider's view on what was really happening in Nevada. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I almost wonder if there's an informal Senate support network
between Berkeley / Giffords / Gillibrand / Wasserman-Schultz

If I understand right, those four are the best of friends. What I'm guessing is that they're the new "gal pals" network in Congress, and hopefully sometime soon in the Senate.

[ Parent ]
I disagree with many of these
George Allen is certainly no top-tier recruit. He has good name recognition but certainly not great favorable ratings. I think he is more of a B-list recruit than anything else. Bob McDonnell would have been a much better candidate for them, but he doesn't want to quit being governor after only two years where he didn't really accomplish much of anything. Don Carcieri isn't all that popular, I don't really think he's a great candidate. I actually think Robitaille is as strong or stronger, but regardless this is not going to be a real race. Tom Salmon is actually a good recruit, but this race is so safe it doesn't even matter. I'm not sure about Rehberg, he seems to poll well now but SSPer Twohundredseventy who knows much more about Montana politics than I do says he's overrated. Flake and Bruning are the only two you mentioned who unquestionably shift the race further into the Republican column, IMO.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
And Heller
He does belong with Bruning and Flake.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
I'm not talking about
Their chances of winning more pointing out the fact Republicans are keen to run everywhere while Democrats are not.
[ Parent ]
Okay, but that's not necessarily a good thing for them
The flipside of the Flakes and Brunings of the Republican party being eager to run is that the Sharron Angles and Ken Bucks of the world may also be more likely to run, and that more Republicans are forced to spend resources on primary battles. Having more people itching to run is not totally a good thing. I think it's way too early to worry about Democratic recruits not having the enthusiasm to run. It's not even clear were doing badly at recruiting right now.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Youre being a pessimist though
Of course Repubs want to run in AZ, NE, ND etc.  They have been tending against Dems recently.  Also, periello wants to run he's just during to kainw, affords would be in in AZ had she not been shot, and we'll probably get good candidates in NV, ME and NM.  Repubs are announcing early is the only thing I see.
[ Parent ]
I am being a pessimist
Doesn't mean I'm wrong though obviously hope I am. For once I agree with Cillizza and the NRSC.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

http://www.nrsc.org/nrsc-state...

[ Parent ]
Tom Salmon is not a "good recruit"
To folks from outside of Vermont on paper he may look it, but anyone who has seen him in action can tell you that he is going to be a pathetic challenger for Bernie.

To quote from his statement in January about running:

"I am not attached to the 2012 outcome, my odds, or my political career. I don't need to be senator, or governor, or stay put as state auditor -I need to be an authentic self-utilizing power along the lines of excellence.  I am deeply concerned that we address risks of economic, political and spiritual significance through a new brand of leaders that communicate effectively from the sincere center."

That is pretty typical of his incoherence when he speaks.

He looks good on paper because he's won statewide and is the son of a former Democratic Governor, but I can assure you that the Republicans are ultimately going to be embarrassed to have him as a candidate. (There was actually a serious effort by party leaders to deny him the Republican nomination in 2010 by running the for Auditor he defeated in 2006, but that guy decided not to jump in.)

He's also going to have to live down his videotaped DUI arrest, where he is filmed trying to pull rank on the state trooper arresting him by demanding "Do you know who I am?"

The guy is not ready for prime time, and Bernie will completely overwhelm him.


[ Parent ]
"Authentic Self-Utilizing Power Along the Lines of Excellence"
A good name for an album.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Or a bad title for an academic paper.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
???

Well you have a lot of incumbents in competitive seats what confirm what they will be in, while many republican frontrunners tell they will not run. This is a very good success (OH, FL, MO, MT, WV...). In CT you have also a good success of the democratic recruitment.

And T Kaine as possible candidate is a lot stronger than many if not all these republicans, and still you can compare T Perriello with these republicans.

In NM, we will see...

In AZ, well, we need to wait...

Do you think Salmon will do something? He is leaving his current office cause of he have not chance of be reelected in 2012.

I think at this point the republican recruitment is a lot worse than the democratic recruitment. It is necessary to assure a good candidate for some race, but I think it is not going bad.

[ Parent ]
I wish we could put the "Carcieri=recruiting coup" meme to rest
The man would probably get his ass kicked even for governor after how unpopular he is, and RI definitely has a higher tolerance for conservatism in state government (where the Dems in the legislature have a bad reputation and voters might want a check) than in federal affairs. Like I've said a million times, the Rethugs would need to run someone with a moderate reputation like Allan Fung or Scott Avedisian to even have a chance.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
People are missing my point here
I'm not suggesting Whitehouse and Sanders are vulnerable but I think it is telling that Republicans don't shy away from even the toughest of races. I mean there is no talk about anybody serious running against Roger Wicker in Mississippi and the chances of Bredesen actually running in TN are slim to none.
[ Parent ]
It's cyclical
Two cycles ago, there was a strong challenger to Wicker, along with strong candidates in hopeless states like Nebraska. Meanwhile, Democrats in potentially-vulnerable seats like Iowa and South Dakota get a free pass. Now it's the other way around. When Democrats go back to being the minority party it'll switch back again.
[ Parent ]
Sure
But it is still disheartening when Democrats seem to be scrambling for candidates, particularly when the cycle looks neutral at worst right now.
[ Parent ]
Appearences can be deceiving.
I'd say that it looks better for Republicans since we hold all of the true swing senate seats and even most of the marginal ones. We already have our candidates because we already hold the seats, so there's naturally less activity on our side.

Besides, the Republican's success is...a little overstated. There are two states where there's been a lot of activity for the other side's primary: Florida and Missouri. We haven't much of anything about Ohio or Virginia or Michigan. We've barely hard a peep in Pennsylvania and even in North Dakota. In Tennessee, we didn't have much of anything to go on until the recent PPP poll, which I am sure will spark more interest in the state. There's something being said in a lot of places, but not much. Which makes sense, of course. The primaries for both sides are more than a year away. It's far from the point where we need to panic.

I could go on, but suffice it to say that I am not worried. I know stuff is happening behind the scenes.

And yes, I agree with you that the Republicans have the right mindset when it comes to approaching races. They might not always succeed when it comes to picking the best candidate, but they try to contest every seat they can. We need to adopt the same mindset--perhaps not in Mississippi, but definitely in North Dakota or some similar state where we've had successes recently.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I'm not in a panic
There is plenty time to turn things around. It is very early. Last cycle Dorgan and Dodd didn't retire for another year. Things will look better soon in Nevada according to adtleft, Balderas is already looking strongly at New Mexico, John Sharp probably runs in Texas, MA will certainly get a top-tier challenger eventually, Heidi Heitkamp may suddenly announce in North Dakota, Bredesen or Bart Gordon could shock us all in TN and if Kaine doesn't run in Virginia then Perriello is more than an able deputy.
[ Parent ]
The Teabaggers are targeting Wicker.
Or at least, Eric Erickson wants them to.

It'll be interesting to see what happens if someone like Wicker is Teabagged. The Republican candidate is still favored in such a race, but at the same time, there's more of an opening.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Man, I remember...
when Herseth-Sandlin was being talked about as a potential first female President.  Now after a loss in a horrible year for Democrats, and it's all over for her?
Looks that way
Unless she gets a job in the Obama administration and she goes the appointee route.
[ Parent ]
She could well just be hoping for a better year
She's still young enough that she could easily run for Senate or the governorship at any time over the next ten years. And she may feel that another loss in 2012 - which is very possible - would cripple her chances down the road.  
[ Parent ]
Hard to imagine a better year than 2012
unless Thune is at the top of the GOP ticket.  What could possibly drive up Dem voter turnout than virtually any of these possible GOP Prez candidates?  

(I suppose Daniels and Pawlenty have some appeal to the Dakotas, but any of the others?  They would even need a translator to understand what Barbour is saying.)

[ Parent ]
Not to be a nag
but I would suggest that the three true iron range counties are only about a 1/3 of the 8th district's population.  Oh you can find a stray mine or mine worker here in there in other counties but the Iron range is not the population powerhouse it once was.  Insular yes but that's why they have a GOP congressman now.  Its not all Iron range anymore
So as of now 8 Wisconsin Republican State Senators
can be recalled as of now. As of now the question is would any of the recall attempts be successful? The Democrats only need 3 seats to take back the majority in the State Senate.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
depends on which ones
Many of the flips and open races the GOP got were in races decided by 3000-5000 votes.  And in reality, just recalling 1 would get their attention on the GOP side.
[ Parent ]
Oh god.
AS OF NOW!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
Flake
may well get primaried from from the right over DADT and immigration and who knows what else they'll find to be outraged about. And hopefully he's playing with fire over taunting birthers when he doesn't really need to, especially in AZ. Maybe he believes the CfG endorsement will insulate him from all that.
Supposedly 51% of voting Repubs are birthers  http://politicalwire.com/archi... and Rove won't be able to change that much. Even Palin, of all people, is pushing back on it http://politicalwire.com/archi... .
yes
Flake will get a challenge from the right. A who-dat with no money tried to primary him in 2010 and got 35% of the vote. If no other mainstreamers get in I think Flake would probably have the edge, although a primary between him and Trent Franks would be very interesting and might depend on whether the party is still in full-on berserker mode.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Oh brother
http://twitter.com/jenniferedu...

And I'm (rightly) being accused of pessimism!

When Dominici was first elected in the '70s
I gather the D primary was a flustercuck -- and the winner was some dude named

Jack Daniels

Dominici even carried the Hispanic vote that year.

Until the D primary becomes clear, I can see the scepticism. But with any reasonable candidate (perhaps except Diane Dennish / Bill Richardson), unless Gary Johnson gets in, this should be at least lean D.  

[ Parent ]
Yet they hand AZ to Flake on a plate

[ Parent ]
I share your complaint
especially if the AZ Tea Party factions split as I suspect they will on this race. Don't know the history of 3rd party challenges in that state.
[ Parent ]
We need an official SSP rebuttal
Though I suspect they are waiting for the big move. Which, after reading the comments on the crossposted FL-Sen thread, I'm even less enthusiastic about.
[ Parent ]
The contents of that thread...
Are exactly what I was afraid would happen.

"Senator Alan Grayson ... has a nice ring to it."
"Spineless Democrats ... will be paying a huge price."
"I want Bill gone."

Uh, well, time to start thinking about how much the outlay for making a new site would be. No offense to RRH, but I've posted on conservative-dominated forums before, and it's only led to creeping madness.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Some of these people on the DailyKos thread are confusing Bill for Ben......
At least a couple of the apparent purity trolls thought this was about Ben Nelson, and one admitted after being corrected that he didn't even know there were two Dem Senators named Nelson.

That's at least a lot less bad than dissing Bill.

And one critic of Bill in that comment thread at least had a specific reason for dissing him, having to do with Bill's position on NASA.  Still tunnel vision for a Dem to oppose reelection over that, but it's a helluva lot more thoughtful than complaining Bill's not ideologically pure.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Speaking of the move
given the lack of any substantial announcement on the move,

I'm inclined to wait to post my diary until the actual move happens. (I may be out much of this weekend.) But I would appreciate your thoughts.

[ Parent ]
I don't understand what they are doing actually
Daily Kos Elections is open.

http://www.dailykos.com/blog/E...

No intro post or anything.

[ Parent ]
How the hell do you find it from the main page?
They need to make easier to find or nobody will visit. There are 10X the posts here on the same diaries as on the mother ship.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Teething problems with the new layout I guess

[ Parent ]
Who is handing AZ to Flake on a plate?
It is fully 20+ months before the election. The fact that the dance cards are not all filled in is not the disaster you are suggesting.

Flake is going to face serious primary issues in AZ, so there is no guarantee that he will even be the Republican nominee. The social conservatives, gay bashers and immigrant haters will have a good go at him.

And the Democratic field needs to get sorted out, but that doesn't have to happen this week. It is made especially more complicated by the fact that the candidate who would clearly have made the race, the strongest potential nominee, is in limbo after being shot.

But while on the surface Democrats may be deferring to Gabby until her health status is clearer, I can assure you that behind the scenes there is plenty of maneuvering going on to make sure that a strong candidate steps up if Giffords doesn't run -- most likely Gordon, Goddard, or Rotellini.

The AZ Senate race is going to seriously contested by both parties, the Democrats will have a strong nominee who will have plenty of resources to run a strong campaign (especially since Obama will contest the state when McCain isn't running).

[ Parent ]
Cook rating for AZ-Sen
Likely Republican.
[ Parent ]
Sorry, misunderstood your comment
I thought you were saying that Democrats were handing to Flake on a platter, didn't realise you were comparing it to Cook's moving NM to "toss-up" while rating AZ as "likely Republican."

Cook seems to be treating 2012 as though it will be an extension of 2010 - and there certainly isn't the kind of data out there right now that points strongly in that direction. It may be a tough year because the number of seats each party has to defend makes the Senate tougher for Dems, but there are no indications that overall environment is going to be toxic for Democrats.

[ Parent ]
Definitely
There's just no way a Rep. Heinrich or even an Auditor Balderas fumbles a built-in Democratic advantage in a presidential election year.

It's not like North Dakota, where the Democratic bench starts and ends with Sen. Conrad - and I think Democrats can even find a decent candidate there. It's much more comparable to Connecticut or Hawaii, where a few good Democrats - some better than others, I'll admit - are waiting in the wings and virtually any would be favored to win after clinching the nomination.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Jack Daniels?
too bad Ke$ha wasn't voting in NM back then (or alive, for that matter).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Jack Daniels = Diane Denish's father n/t


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Looking at the rest of the feed
seems more like either concern trollism or extreme Beltway insiderism.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
I hate the professionals


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
That's just stupid!
NM-Sen is "Leans R" at worst IMHO. While NM Dems didn't have the best year last year, all the Bill Richardson scandaliciousness didn't help. Meanwhile, Obama will be on the ballot again in 2012 and I doubt he'll lose NM next year. And it's not like Dems don't have a good bench there. What is Jennifer Duffy thinking??!!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
WHOOPS!
Brain fart! I obviously meant "Leans D".

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Unless Palin is the GOP
I think it's statistically impossible Dems keep 53 seats in the senate in 2012. The odds are better than 50/50 they lose the senate.  
[ Parent ]
That is very different from
The "almost inevitable" Duffy claims.
[ Parent ]
And Bill Clinton was supposed to lose...
The 1996 Election back in 1995. We've already seen Obama's poll numbers rebound, so I think it's very premature for Beltway chatterers to hand The Senate to the GOP on a silver platter so soon. If Obama just matches his 2008 performance next year, that will probably be enough for Dems to keep the Senate majority.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
but still lose some seats
The best case scenario I think is a 52-48 split. I mean the off chance that Democrats can actually win in Nevada, Arizona, Maine, Indiana and Massachusetts (with teabagging help), but that doesn't help the fact that North Dakota is gone. Virginia is a stretch if Kaine doesn't run, and oh, btw, we have the keep competitive seats in New Mexico, Montana, Missouri, Florida, and Ohio.  
[ Parent ]
52-48 is definitely not the best case scenario
I think 52-48 could easily happen in a very slightly Democratic year. I could see us losing McCaskill and Ben Nelson in addition to the open seat in ND, but holding on to all the other seats. If we then win two of either Nevada, Maine, and Massachusetts (not hard to believe), that would lead to a 52-48 split. That certainly doesn't sound like a "best-case scenario" to me. I personally think the most likely scenario is 50-50, but I don't think 52D-48R is out of reach for the Democrats. OTOH, I think that 48D-52R is not that unlikely either, and the Republicans best case scenario is probably higher.  

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
A Republican best case in 2012 is scary
Considering the number of seats we have up in 2012, an absolute  best care scenario for the Republicans in 2012 is not fun to analyze.

We could lose Michigan, Montana, North Dakota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virgina, West Virgina, Florida, Nebraska, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin....

I mean honestly the floor we have is around 40 or so.

Obviously any scenario that horrible would also by default mean Obama is getting around 100EV total.  

[ Parent ]
They've already had the election in North Dakota?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
In Concernland they have I guess

[ Parent ]
disagree
If the economy continues to improve as most forecasters expect then Obama will probably win by 5-10 points even against Romney or Huckabee, and in that case I would not expect any Dem incumbents to lose except for Ben Nelson. They would hold FL, VA, MO, OH, and probably MT and would probably pick up NV and possibly MA and AZ. They would also easily pick up ME if Snowe steps down or is primaried. My best guess is that Dems have 51 or 52 seats at the end of it: they'll probably lose NE and ND, I think Berkley is 50-50 or better to beat Heller, and no other seat changes hands.    

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Maine
Democrats have had such horrid luck winning statewide in non-Presidential race over the last two decades(only doing so against fatally flawed opponents and even then overwhelmingly) do not put aside the possibility that if the GOP gets their act together and a good candidate they could easily win. Especially because the Democratic bench is a blit bleh(Michaud is old, Pingree from the wrong part of the state, Baldacci hated, legislators all defeated last year). If anything, the Republican bench(Kevin Raye, Carol Weston, Peter Mills, Chris Rector, the new AG or SOS).

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Michaud is 56
That is not old.
[ Parent ]
The recent article in Huffpost
says that the White house budget documents are projecting 8.6% unemployment for 2012. White House  is looking for 3.6% economic growth in 2012, down from 4.3%, in preparing its budget.

Is that in line with what growth and unemployment rate you were looking for?

[ Parent ]
the Fed just bumped their forecast up
http://www.calculatedriskblog....

They project a 4th quarter unemployment rate between 7.6 and 8.1. Say it's around 8.0 in the 3rd quarter, as even the October number won't be known by the time people vote. That's high, but it was 7.4 in the 3rd quarter of 1984 before Reagan blew out Mondale by 20 points. The absolute level is less important than people's sense of the general direction. If the unemployment rate is around 8 and the income growth numbers are pretty good (as they would likely be under the Fed's GDP growth assumption of 3.5-4.4 or even the administration's 3.6) I think the economy would be a plus for the incumbent.

Given that the unemployment rate is estimated at 9.0 now I would be surprised if it still averaged 8.6 during a year of 3.6% growth unless the participation rate increased much more than people expect.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Dueling economic views?
My crystal ball, politically, can barely see a month ahead so if I knew the economic picture for 2012 I could really make some money!

Here's some random thoughts in no particular order.

1. Canada created 69K jobs in Jan 2011 while the US saw 36K in net new job being created.  One economy is growing fast enough to lower unemployment while so far our unemployment rate has only shrunk due to lowering the total number of people looking for work.  Funny thing is that a pickup in the job market could encourage millions of workers to re enter the job market and raise the unemployment rate.

2. There is a substanial uncertainty in our state, local, county and school /non federal budgets.  WI is just the tip of the iceberg as these budgets appear to be +150 billion out of balance.  Its more then just job cuts as when a state like CA freezes car purchases, several thousand a year, that ripples through the economy.  There has been some pickup in the private sector job market but we are seeing month after month of declines in public sector jobs. I might add many public sector cuts are early retirements that don't show up as a job cut someone just withdraws fromt the job market.

3. The housing market which affects millions upon millions is still so weak.  No recovery in sight.  Talk about economic anxieties hitting home.  The stock market going up is nice but if your home value is underwater and you are struggling to make a house note Dow 12K matters little.  

So I read alot about things being better but I think the anxiety level is still very high.  You have to go back to Truman in 1948 to see a President re-elected with 8% unemployment.  So I need to see more data to get a feel for what 2012 will look like.  

[ Parent ]
forecast
1. The overall January number was weak but it was depressed somewhat by worse-than-usual weather. The manufacturing number was good, which is a good sign because manufacturing typically drives other sectors along with it eventually. The participation rate now is very low and should go back up to some extent, so job growth probably will lead to less-than-proportionate declines in unemployment.

2, 3. The government and construction sectors should continue to be weak although construction has bottomed out. Fixed investment has been flat for 2 quarters so at least it isn't acting as a drag on growth anymore. The growth in GDP has come from consumption, exports, and investment in equipment and software, all of which are in better shape now. Consumption in particular has grown at a higher rate in 4 consecutive quarters, indicating that consumers are slowly becoming less apprehensive.      

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
canada had
colder weather and they added more jobs but I take your point.  We had a two snowstorms here in TN and we close everything down when we get an inch of snow.

Manufacturing is a two edged sword as our cheaper dollar makes our exports more attractive but imports are more expensive.  Not everyone has a manufacturing job but everyone buys gas.  Well nearly everyone.  

Here's our mixed bag on manufactoring here in TN. Goodyear will be closing down their tire plant in West TN and 1900 jobs will be lost.  On the flip we an appliance factory & a japanese car plant coming to the area to just about offset the losses.  Of course there will be a large wage and benefit gap as the Tire factory was a high wage union outfit (actually located in Union city TN) while the other two plants will pay in the $12 to $14 range.  

I still a trend even where there is job growth that personal income and average hourly wage is flat.  You can't build a robust recovery on flat or modestly higher personal income and a flat average hourly wage.  I note even our federal workers,as I understand it, are going to have no pay raise this year and SS benefits are not increasing due to the lack of inflation.  CD rates which are another significant source of income are also low or lower then last year.

I hate seeing people out of work,as get resumes through my email, from people looking for jobs. I see a very modest uptick in the economy.  People are replacing cars, as I did, and other are buying new appliances.    

[ Parent ]
Which article is that?
The biggest question mark for me is what happens with the payroll tax cut. I could easily see Obama extending it only to try to get elected--and I couldn't blame him for doing so. But then, would the Republicans not go along with a tax cut? At the same time, if the lower rate is to last, something else has to give. It won't happen until after the 2012 elections, of course.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Show me the statistics, then.
It's very easy to imagine the Democrats losing in North Dakota and Nebraska but winning in Massachusetts and Nevada. And if Obama wins Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Missouri, or at least comes within a few points, what are the odds that the Democratic candidate loses in anything but a very, very close race?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Missouri will be interesting
I think its gone for Obama to be honest, but I have no idea how his contending MO will impact turnout.  Will him campaigning strong there encourage Republican turnout as well as Dems?  I know most states look crazy, but MO's map from the 2008 is so red already that I'm not sure the 4 years leading to 2012 could be even worse in those red areas, its just MO seems to me to be the one swing state I feel will be trending more GOP than any other heading into 2012.
[ Parent ]
Why do you think Missouri is gone?
Unless it's a truly epic landslide like Reagan's in 1984, there's usually one or two races where the losing party pulls it out. Think of Bennet in Colorado of this year, for instance.

Perhaps the state has made a shift to the right that I am not aware of--I don't live there, after all--but I'd say it's been a center-right state as of late, sort of like Ohio or Florida, that can go narrowly one way or narrowly another. If he wins it in 2012, it won't be by anything crazy until he's destroying the Republican nominee all over the place. But even in a bad year like 2004, Kerry only lost the state by seven points.

If you compare the maps from 2004 and 2008, or look at the numerical results, they look the same, except that Obama won Boone County by a very solid margin while Kerry narrowly lost it. The red areas are still red, but they were actually somewhat less red than they were in 2004. And most of these counties are quite small. I wouldn't be as concerned that Obama loses Dade County, where a little over 4,000 people voted in 2008, by a bigger margin than he did in 2008 more than I am concerned he has hit his ceiling in St. Louis County, where 560,000 people voted.

At the risk of sounding like too much of an optimist, assuming the year is at worse neutral, I'd rather be in our shoes than in theirs. We have the ability to expand our totals slightly in counties where a lot of people live, while they probably have to get astronomical turnout in their counties to gain the same number of votes. I'm thinking of a situation where they spend a lot of time targeting the small counties just to get the percentages from 37 to 40 percent while still trying to drive turnout through the roof in the urban areas. In other words, we knock them out at the knees.

I get where you are coming from, of course, and you could end up being right. It'll be interesting to see what approach the Obama campaign takes in the state, especially since McCaskill is running.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
2008 was a great Dem year
And Obama lost MO.  I don't see 2012 being a greta DEM year in any sense so I just don't see how he can pull it out or even keep it close like 2008.
[ Parent ]
Nobody knows what kind of year 2012 will be
And the idea that MO is trending Republican based on 2008 is a stretch. The swing from 2004 (7.06%) was similar to Florida (7.81%) and greater than Ohio (6.69%). The difference was Bush won those two states by smaller margins than he won Missouri.  

[ Parent ]
We may not know about 2012
But we know that 2010 was a bad year.  If you're suggesting that somehow 2012 will be better than 2008 I'd welcome the positivity since many on here are complaining about lack (hmmm lol) of solid Senate candidates in many Senate races.

However I just don't see a state like MO being better for Dems in 2012 than 2008.  Dems actually had a REALLY good 2008 in MO and I just don't see how we can do better.  Nixon won the Guv race by over 500K votes, but Obama still lost the state.  In fact Dems won every statewide race except LT Guv in 2008.  This was all with about 69% voter turnout so I don't think we can say that's going to be higher in 2012 than 2008.

Fast forward to 2010 and how bad 2010 was in MO.  GOP takes a Senate seat and State Auditor seat.  GOP expands majority in both state houses.

So my point is that 2012 is likely to be somewhere between 2008 and 2010.  Its not negative, its based on what we've seen the last 2 elections.  My question is why would anyone think Obama can win in 2012 (or today) when he couldn't win in 2008?

Sayign that we don't know what 2012 is like is cute and all but then why discuss anything about the future ever on this site, we don't know what tomorrow will bring in any race, do we?

[ Parent ]
Cute?
Good grief. As the incumbent he will either win by more than last time or lose comfortably. It is always that way. Not to mention the fact it is chalk and cheese to compare a general election year and a midterm year.
[ Parent ]
Hence the comparison of 2008 to 2012
I just don't see what makes MO more likely to vote Obama in 2012 than 2008.  I don't see any of the real potential GOP candidates losing MO.  
[ Parent ]
He only barely lost it first time around
Granted, all if, but and maybe but if the economy turns gets going and his approval rating goes up and stays up he could well win it. Such is the point I was making before. We just don't know what the environment will be like in twenty months. I'm not predicting it I'm just saying it is possible.
[ Parent ]
Why could Kerry win in New Hampshire
but not Gore? That one is probably more easily explained by Bostonites moving into New Hampshire, but still, you can't judge everything like that. Figure that McCain didn't exactly give up on the state. He campaigned there pretty damn hard and spent a lot of money to win the state.

It'd be one thing if Obama poured lots of resources into the state and did as badly, if not worse, than Kerry did, but that didn't happen. He fell just short--literally .13 percentage points--from winning the state. Is he tapped out in the state? Perhaps, but that's far from clear.

My point wasn't to say 2012 would be a great year. It was so say that it could be anything and that we just don't know yet. I try to assume that it's a more neutral year for both sides, which can make a lot of different things. And if it is a neutral year, Missouri, a classic swing state, will be as such yet again.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Nader

[ Parent ]
In a neutral year
Which is probably how I would describe how things are shaping up at the moment, would mean Obama losing MO. The president would probably need to do better than 53% of the national popular vote to take the state but that isn't impossible since many (myself included) ascribe to the theory that every re-elected president wins more votes (electoral and popular) than first time around.  
[ Parent ]
That's certainly possible,
but I don't think it's out of the question that he loses Indiana, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina and still wins. It's hard to say what, exactly, might happen, because he could be very vulnerable but face a truly pathetic opponent. Sort of uncharted territory, I guess.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
2004 is the exception
it's highly unlikely that '12 will be close. As conspiracy suggests, it'll either be a relative Obama blowout (in which case, he'll win MO and AZ), or Obama will lose by a significant margin (in which case, he may even lose PA).

However, it is good to game things out as if it will be a close election.

[ Parent ]
Even 2004 fits the pattern of course

[ Parent ]
Yup, one more election where the incumbent President
improved on his initial performance.
[ Parent ]
Difficult to not do it in his case
Since he lost the first time!
[ Parent ]
What some people struggle with re Mizzou is they have a hard time getting their heads around...
...the idea that electoral progress isn't linear.  It's quick and easy to think that if Obama couldn't flip Mizzou on a day he flipped states like VA, NC, IN, and NV, then when will we ever win the state?

But elections aren't perfectly linear, there are some vagaries in performance and trends.  After all, Obama was +11 on Kerry in IN, +8 in NC and NV, but only +4 in FL and +3 in OH.  It's easy to overlook those vagaries because Obama did actually flip FL and OH.  But since MO didn't quite flip, some people overlook that there really was a +3 improvement that was comparable to FL and OH.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I think exit polls
actually said Bush won MA-born NH voters.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It's longtime CW among people who know NH politics well that MA transplants...
...are anti-tax conservatives.

The blue-ing of the state came from a combination of in-migration from other neighboring states and sharp left turn by NH natives.  The latter shift was the stunner, since these are people who were longtime habitual Republicans.  But their shift ultimately was really red-to-purple rather than red-to-blue, as 2010 showed; they're perpetually winnable now, but we have to work for them every cycle.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I must have been thinking
of something else, then.

I do agree with your last line. In fact, I think it sums up the state pretty well.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Correct
The MA transplants are primarily located in Rockingham and Hillsborough counties, both of which Bush carried by even larger margins in 2004 than in 2000. Rockingham, which probably has the higher number of Mass-born residents, has gone from somewhat of a bellwether county to the most reliably Republican county in the state (the only county to vote against Lynch this year, and McCain's best showing in 2008.)

New Hampshire's bluing has come almost exclusively from the Dartmouth Valley--Grafton, Sullivan, and Chesire Counties, which all border Vermont. Gore carried those three by 2800 votes while losing the state by 7000, Kerry carried them by 15400 while winning by 9000. The difference there was essentially his margin of victory.

The reason that part of the state trended so Democratic is twofold. First, there has been some high tech job growth in the region, which has pulled some people from Vermont, which is a less favorable business climate. Second, there are a lot of old-school Yankee voters there who are willing to vote R on fiscal policy but adamantly opposed the Iraq War.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
MO
I think user leeatwater is back with a new name.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Either that or
The Missouri branch of the Nevil Chamberlain fan club has a new chairman.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
No
rdw72777 is a regular poster.
[ Parent ]
You sure seem to like talking about notleeatwater a lot


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Ah
So I'm not the only one! ;)
[ Parent ]
Make that a trifecta

[ Parent ]
Lugar and his hotel
I'm sure the teabaggers will ignore that like they did Coats dissing the state and living in Virginia.
During one of his re-elections
During the 1990s or something like that Lugar had a warm fuzzy type of ad where he was walking across a field on his farm with his family and a golden retriever.  Well, it came out that they actually had to rent the dog!!
[ Parent ]
We Ask America polled Wisconsin and
found that 51% disapprove of Gov. Walker's actions and 43% approve.

http://weaskamerica.com/2011/0...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

Bigger majority
Want Dems to go home and vote.
[ Parent ]
I think that's more an issue of framing than of ideology
I doubt the general public understands why the Democratic senators can't go back and vote. It's not a matter of fleeing from debate, it's that if a single Democratic senator reenters the chamber, the Republicans can immediately pass Gov. Walker's draconian budget.

The Democrats don't need to return to Wisconsin. They just need to focus on winning the P.R. battle for once.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
This is what always happens though
The public say they don't want Republicans to filibuster but when they do the public yawn. When the Dems do anything similar the public get all pissy. Sigh.
[ Parent ]
Um, are they being held hostage in Illinois?
Otherwise I think the poll made it pretty clear why they "can't" go back to vote, because then the bill will pass.

What conspiracy said and what I said earlier...this is what always happens, people oppose Republican positions but are even more opposed to people fighting them.  

[ Parent ]
Not always...
We may be facing another federal government shutdown this year, so I'm already seeing comparisons to 1995. If we're to apply yours and conspiracy's theory to that showdown, then Newt Gingrich should have always had the upper hand and won that battle. But when President Clinton took advantage of Baby Newt's public whining over petty crap and the overall GOP message of letting extreme ideology get in the way of functional governance, the tide turned. Hopefully, President Obama is studying what happened in 1995 very closely.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I hope you are right
Again.
[ Parent ]
Trust me, I'm NOT trying...
To be Pollyanna here. I just think it's premature to write off Dem chances in 2012, just as it was proven to be premature for some of us to boast about winning a "filibuster-proof majority" in 2010. Things change. Seasons change. Political attitudes and allegiances change. And if House GOPers keep overplaying their hand, just like they did in 1995, they're just making Obama's reelection campaign that much easier (AND giving Dems a better chance to hold The Senate and win back some House seats).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
If anything, the Republicans seem to be
less reasonable and far less well behaved than they were in 1995, so the chances of them overreaching is probably greater.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
and yet
voters kept the GOP in control of Congress in 1996.

I think Obama is set, merely because he'll sit back, much to the chagrin of the left, and let the Republicans overreact

But I think what Democrats did in Wisconsin is akin to a Republican-led government shutdown. That's the point I'm trying to make. Obama is a different beast altogether. Like Clinton, he can survive if he doesn't do anything rash.  

[ Parent ]
Republicans already held both houses...
Of Congress in 1996. And while politics in the '90s was pretty turbulent at times, there was no "Tea Party" causing mayhem in GOP primaries. There's even more potential for GOPers to overreact, and IMHO what's happening in WI is more of Scott Walker overreacting as he's misusing the budget debate to attack public servants.


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Does the Democrats not being there
affect the state in any way besides legislation not being voted on? I plead total ignorance here, but unless there are programs that will be shut down or people that will be fired, I think it's more theater than anything else.

In Wisconsin, I mean. As far as the federal government goes, I'm kind of hoping for a shutdown, because I imagine it could easily change the dynamic to favor Obama. He looks like the adult in the room in almost any situation I can think of, and considering that the Teabaggers will be on television foaming at the mouth, the contrast will be even greater.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I imagine he's having a lot of conversations with Clinton.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Wanna
bet the GOP will run ads like these for the foreseeable future? Since Union bashing is so popular these days in the GOP.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Not bad for a GOP outfit...
...especially since the biggest opposers weren't going to be home for a robopoll.

They mention that they will keep polling it.  I'm sure they will do so until they get the results they prefer.

Remember that they do not weight these polls.  They give the accumulated results with large sample numbers.

[ Parent ]
It's actually 52%
They slipped that decimal .9 in there to fool people...
[ Parent ]
They were generally accurate last year

[ Parent ]
No kidding
I had some serious crow to eat after making fun of WAA polls in my House rankings.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Yeah, well, so were published GOP internals...
The electorate was that hard right...  but, that was an unusual circumstance...
[ Parent ]
New poll from The Shop Consulting Inc.
According to this outlet 2/3 oppose Gov. Walker's actions.

http://www.wispolitics.com/100...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Bob Bobson is bad at DailyKos
Not sure why, but something about how the comments are displayed over there under each post gives me a headache. They seem super compressed together, for one thing. Anyone else having this problem?  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
Hit
"expand."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Thanks, but that's not it
Even fully expanded it's difficult for me to read. Guess the relatively barebones format of SSP comments has spoiled me.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
It's the stupidly narrow 20th century site formatting
SSP is infinitley easier to read because it isn't absolute formatted for 640x480 screens.  I got a foot and a half of whitespace on my screen with all the comments jammed in one little area.  Really bad.
[ Parent ]
Chicago-Mayor: Oddsmakers say Rahm misses run-off mark
http://www.nbcchicago.com/blog...

They predict...

Emanuel - 46%
Chico - 24%
Braun - 14%
Del Valle - 13%

My final prediction...

Emanuel - 48%
Chico - 22%
Braun - 15%
Del Valle - 13%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I'll call
Emanuel - 55%
Chico - 21%
Braun - 13%
Del Valle - 11%

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Typo
Meant Emanuel - 52%

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Rahm breaks 50
The rest doesn't matter.
[ Parent ]
Even if it goes to runoff
He'll win.  He's a juggernaut.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Probably, though Moseley Braun and Del Valle would endorse Chico
I think Emanuel would defeat Chico by about 15.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I am surprised at how well he steamrolled.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Just got done
watching Ted Strickland on MSNBC. He says very candidate-ish. Any chance he runs in four years?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
He sounded


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
he'll be 73
but then again so is Jerry Brown. They both look like they're in their 50s.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
True.
But he was really giving it to Kasich. I really like him a lot and would like to see him do something else. Maybe an Obama cabinet position is more likely.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He supposedly met with Obama
after his narrow loss in November, although exactly what they were discussing was unclear. Considering that he didn't run away from being a Democrat, it'd be interesting to know what, exactly, Obama said to him.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
How about 2 years...
OH-6 is his old district and needs someone to run.  They can't gerrymander it against strickland, who has appeal throughout southeast OH
[ Parent ]
I have had that idea for a while now
I was looking at his election results in Ohio on election night, and I noticed that he easily carried OH-6 even while losing statewide.  
[ Parent ]
I noticed that
I noticed that, too.  He sounded like a candidate.  He's one of the few losers last cycle I could actually see winning his seat back.  It wouldn't be easy, of course, but it's not an impossibility like so many others.
[ Parent ]
He did in 1996, after all
So there is precedence for such a run.
[ Parent ]
Herseth-Sandlin
I feel like she's passing on a rematch with Noem perhaps in anticipation of the possibility (likelihood?) that Tim Johnson retires in 2014. She might even end up running against Noem for that open Senate seat, which would be fine with me as I like our chances much better against Noem than former governor Mike Rounds.
former rep. steve horn
has died.

http://www.presstelegram.com/b...

amazingly for a non-southern state, he held something like a +10 district for the opposite party

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

He was the only Republican that didn't get protected by redistricting last time around
Portions of his district were previously slightly favorable to Republicans, which helped Horn somewhat and he was a moderate that fit with the district. There wasn't much that could have been done to protect the seat, so it ended up turning into the current 39th, held by Linda Sanchez.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Plus mapmakers
had to squeeze in another majority-Hispanic district around there somewhere. Horn's district was already plurality Hispanic by the 2000 census (about 40% Hispanic to 37% nh-white), so it was the obvious choice for a radical transformation.

Here's hoping that mapmakers make a similar obvious choice for Ken Calvert's seat...

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
Here is a link to the 1991 district maps
http://www.calvoter.org/voter/...

Long Beach was open to voting for moderate Republicans back then but the CA GOP doesn't nominate moderates anymore for the most part. I am from CA-39 and even though I wasn't much into politics back then, I do remember Ed Royce being my rep. as Sanchez's current district took Artesia, Cerritos, La Mirada, parts of Lakewood and Whittier from Royce. Being close to the border of Orange County and with Napolitano in Norwalk, I am a little apprehensive about redistricting.

27, Dem, CA-39 (home), OR-04 (school)

[ Parent ]
MN-6, MN-8
I don't really see how St. Cloud gets paired into the 8th unless Cravaack's home is removed from the district. The current district would have to shed a LOT of popultion to take in the space between the current boundaries to St. Cloud, let alone take in St. Cloud itself. If that were to happen, the 7th would be taking in some really strange territory, because the rest of Stearns County wouldn't do it. The western portion of Stearns County is already in the 7th, so adding the rest of the county wouldn't be all that hard, and it would make the population numbers a lot closer to where they need to be. But then you have the issue of the 6th needing to lose population, even with the loss of Stearns County, they would still be over. Logically, cutting out part of Washington County and giving it to McCollum in the 4th makes sense, but removing BOTH Washington and Stearns from the 6th would be too much. It'll be interesting to see ho the courts do this, because there is absolutely zero chance the legislature and Dayton agree to a map.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

OR-01: Bizarre story about David Wu
His behavior during the campaign last year was apparently very erratic. It sounds like he may have a drinking problem or something.
Uhh...
Is it possible to primary Wu or get him to retire before he does something really, really stupid?

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Also, between this, Chris Lee, and that possibly faked thing with Mary Bono Mack
I'm starting to think that the President ought to tell Congress that they're grounded and take their cell phones/etc away from them.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
cell phones?
I think you mean twitter.  tell mccain he can't twitter with his bff snooki until he writes "i will not be bitter" 100 times on the chalkboard.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
creepy
I'm not sure what's more creepy: drunkenly playing with your kids at 1:40am and having them send emails you're dictating, or drunkenly emailing under the guise of your kids' names to your staff...
[ Parent ]
Hmmm
I doubt he survives his primary in 2012, but, if so, does this legitimately become a pick-up opportunity? I mean, Wu won pretty comfortably in 2010 against a good candidate, and is this enough to make him lose in this district in 2012? How will redistricting affect his district?  
[ Parent ]
Guesses on OR-01
First, I think OR-01 is going to shed some territory, but we'll know more in a few days. Assuming it has to shed territory, the question is whether it'll become less coastal, less in the wine country, or less of west Portland (where Wu lives). I think it's almost certain to remain centred in the Silicon Forest (Hillsboro/Beaverton).

Quick summary of the D bench -- from this blue Oregon comment http://www.blueoregon.com/2011...

President Obama was in OR-01 today, visiting the local Intel plant. With him was two people on the list, (state Sen) Mark Hass and (state Rep) Tobias Read, both from Beaverton, I think. (Don't know everyone who was there, but I'd think there were more potential replacements at Intel today.)

Not sure if (Multco Chair) Jeff Cogan lives in that district, but he's an ambitious one. Portland progressive faves like Steve Novick and (state Rep young geeky economist) Jules Kopel-Bailey do not live in the current OR-01.

On the R side, there's a state Sen from Hillsboro, Bruce (I don't know if he's a rising) Starr, who reportedly has some higher ambitions.

[ Parent ]
Confirmed -- Wu did not attend President Obama's speech
at Intel yesterday, in OR-01.

http://www.wweek.com/portland/...

The most notable absences were Portland Mayor Sam Adams (who's giving his State of the City speech today) and U.S. Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.), whose district Obama was visiting.

No info on whether Wu was told to stay away.

[ Parent ]
It won't become a pickup opportunity...
And here's why: Suzanne Bonamici, the Democrat spearheading the Senate's redistricting efforts, is from Rep. Wu's district, and she's both ambitious and politically well-connected. There's no way she or Secy. Brown sign off on any map that would give Republicans an opening in OR-01.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
now that's what I call Asian glow


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
MN-6
Could Madia ever run against Bachmann? Would that district ever be drawn that way?

22, male, VA-10
Madia lives in Hennepin County
Hennepin County has pretty much had the same redistricting rules forever. The 5th takes up Minneapolis, and some first ring suburbs (In Hennepin and Anoka), and the 3rd takes up the rest of Hennepin. I don't see that changing.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
What has Madia done....
... to think he is a strong candidate? He lost by 7 points in a District Obama carried by 6 in a Democratic wave year.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Oh wow!
I hadn't realized he lost by 7, I thought he lost by 3. Yeah, there's a lot of excitement around him in the Indian community, but I didn't really follow that campaign in 08

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Well I'm in that Indian-American Democratic community & don't see "excitement"...
...for Madia going forward.  He really underperformed badly, and from what I've seen while Ash remains well-liked personally the community has moved on with candidates.  Bera in CA and Trivedi in PA definitely have futures.  I think Jay Goyal has a future in OH.  I still would like to see Kumar Barve move up, although he's gunning for Speaker of the House in the future and is content as a career legislative leader...still I hope he eventually runs for Governor, no doubt the U.S. House is out since he doesn't want to be low man out of 435.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
What about Raj Goyle in Kansas?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I worked on that campaign
Not sure what he wants to do next. I think he's content now to spend time with his baby girl. He was at the No Labels launch in NY for whatever that's worth.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 2/18 | 176 comments

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