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4-4 Gerrymander of Maryland

by: Alizarin

Thu Feb 17, 2011 at 8:45 PM EST


Obviously an exercise, inspired by the flood of 8-0 Democratic Marylands. Originally I had attempted to make five Republican seats in Maryland, but while it was possible to make five seats won by McCain it would have been a huge overreach and Republicans would have been unlikely to hold all five seats in even a neutral year (possibly none in a Democratic wave). Given that, the exercise became a matter of shoring up four seats as much as possible. While Maryland is quite a blue state these years the Democratic voting base is heavily concentrated so forcing it into four ultra Democratic seats was entirely possible. The remaining four Republican seats all ended up with a 44-54 Obama/McCain lean.    

CD1 (Blue): W85 B10, O44 M54 Much of Anne Arundel county, coastal Baltimore county and smallish bits of Harford and Prince George's. PVI R+9  
CD2 (Green): W31 B63 O87 M12 Most of Baltimore city with tiny amounts of Baltimore county. PVI D+34  
CD3 (Dark Magenta): W80 B16 O44 M54 The entire Eastern Shore, all of Calvert and St. Mary's, and parts of Charles and St George's in south Maryland, and a piece of Harford in the north. PVI R+9  
CD4 (Red): W21 B69 O91 M9 Mostly Prince George's, with a little of northern Charles D+38
CD5 (Gold): W47 B36 O77 M21 Northern Prince George's with a tendril stretching to Annapolis (the Severn river does maintain contiguity) and toward (though not into) Baltimore city. D+24
CD6 (Teal): W87 B7 O44 M54 Mostly Baltimore county but spilling over into adjacent counties. PVI R+9  
CD7 (Dark Grey): W58 B15 A12 H12 O73 M25 The most Democratic parts of Montgomery county. D+17
CD8 (Slate Blue): W88 B6 O44 M54 Western Maryland and the less Democratic parts of Montgomery county. PVI R+9  

Alizarin :: 4-4 Gerrymander of Maryland
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Very cool
Democrats are at a natural disadvantage in Maryland redistricting as many of their voters are packed into super-Democratic areas in Baltimore and the DC suburbs, whereas Republican strongholds like Anne Arundel or Frederick counties are less packed. I think that's partly what makes this map possible.

Male, VA-08

We have the good fortune
to be able to overcome the "natural disadvantage" with creative map drawing. :D  

[ Parent ]
I'd like to see 5 McCain seats
Given that a McCain seat is already about R+5, it's by no means a "huge overreach". At least not by the standards of this site, where some people thought their 55% Obama districts made for "Likely D" seats.

Heck, if five McCain seats are possible, are six R+0 seats possible?


Since
you are interested, here it is. 5R-3D Maryland

As a diary in itself I'd considered it would have been thought a dummymander, and I'd agree, four safe seats is worth morth than "maybe five, assuming a good year". I'm pretty sure six even seats can't be done, the math quite literally isn't there.    


[ Parent ]
Bah
didn't put the numbers in!

Blue is 48O 50M
Green is 91O 8M
Dark Magenta is 48O 50M
Red is 91O 8M
Gold is 78O 20M
Teal is 47O 50M
Dark Grey is 48O 50M
Slate blue is 49O 50M  


[ Parent ]
Wow
That is truly evil, while at the same time, I could easily see it going from 3-5 to 8-0 Dem as soon as we have a good year.  I don't think Maryland is likely to get friendlier to Republicans in the near future.

[ Parent ]
Probably won't get much worse either
Especially as the more Republican parts are in Western Maryland, which is in an area that has trended Republican recently.

[ Parent ]
I think people here worry too much about "dummymanders"
Yes, it could go 8-0 Dem in a particularly strong Democratic year. But so what? It wouldn't have made the difference for the House majority. Maybe it'll make the difference on some votes, but having an extra GOP seat may also make the difference on some votes when the Republicans have decent years.

The most important factor is how well the map holds up in a year where it will decide the House majority. It holds up well here - yes, sometimes a Democrat will win, but then you're doing just as well as 4-4 map. For it to be worse, the times that two or more Democrats win have to outweigh the Republican sweeps. For R+5 seats I don't think this is likely.


[ Parent ]
In principle
I agree about the general concept of dummymanders being somewhat overfeared. However there are also things like senority and better local performance than PVI suggests to worry about. In this particular case I just don't feel that the 5-3 map offers a better average performance than the 4-4 map. That said it is certainly a close enough issue that we can easily disagree.  

[ Parent ]
Well
It turns out I was wrong. You can have 6 R+0 seats

Blue is R+0
Green is D+38
Dark Magenta is R+2
Red is D+40
Gold is R+0
Teal is R+1
Dark Grey is R+0
Slate blue is R+0


[ Parent ]
Now THAT looks like a dummymander.
[ Parent ]
Fun times
I still wouldn't call it a "dummymander" though. Suboptimal, yes, but I reserve "dummymander" for maps that are very likely to backfire even in decent years. Georgia post-1990 is a clear example of that.  

[ Parent ]
A "fair" Maryland
With all the gerrymanders of Maryland, I started to wonder what it would look like if they had a fair districts commission there. I don't want to flood the diary list with yet another MD, so here it is.


MD-01: (Harris) Eastern Shore, 43-57, R+11
MD-02: (Ruppersberger) Baltimore County, 59-41, D+6
MD-03: (Open) Howard and Anne Arundel, 55-45, D+2
MD-04: (Edwards) Inside the Beltway, 89-10, D+36, 51.4% AA
MD-05: (Hoyer) Outer PG and Southern MD, 69-31, D+16, 47% White
MD-06: (Bartlett) West and part of BaltCo, 42-58, R+12
MD-07: (Cummings) Baltimore City and a little Anne Arundel, 81-18, D+28 57% AA
MD-08: (Van Hollen) Montgomery outside Beltway, 71-29, D+18

Either 6-2 or 5-2-1, depending on what you call the 3rd. Sarbanes lives in the 7th but would probably run in the 3rd.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


That is evil
We've seen a lot of Dem gerrymanders, where the western district spans from Garrett to Montgomery and Montgomery dominates. Well this is the other side of the coin.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

I can't see why
A district spanning from Garrett to Montgomery is evil, while one spanning from Garrett to Harford is not.

[ Parent ]
Let me get this straight
Montgomery County went 72% Obama - 27% McCain, but your MD-07, comprised of "the most Democratic parts of Montgomery county," was only 73% Obama - 25% McCain.

I can't imagine that your cherry-picking of precincts would yield so little results.


Pretty much
My description was probably not quite as accurate as you may have wanted. I probably should have said "the most Democratic parts of Montgomery county, outside of the 72,000 people already assigned to CD5 (86/13 O/M breakdown)". After that I selected the most Democratic parts of Montgomery still unassigned and labeled them CD7 which did in fact vote Obama 73-27. The least Democratic parts remaining still voted for Obama 56/42, since as you point out Montgomery County is quite Democratic, this 122,000 population portion I assigned to CD8. CD5 and CD7 could easily have been balanced at 75%O each but as they were both overwhelmingly Democratic I just went for neatness and minimized county splitting.    

[ Parent ]

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