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SSP Daily Digest: 2/17

by: DavidNYC

Thu Feb 17, 2011 at 8:03 AM EST


  • AZ-Sen: As Dems cast about for a candidate in this newly open race, the last guy who ran for this seat is saying he won't seek it a second time. Former state party chair (and rich guy) Jim Pederson is doing the upstanding thing by flatly declaring he's out: "I don't want to play a cat-and-mouse game with this U.S. Senate race." In an age where would-be candidates drag out the "exploratory" phase with leaks of rumors of hints of tea leafs for months, Pederson's stance is refreshing, even if it does mean a potentially strong contender won't run. (Of lesser note, Rep. Raul Grijalva also says he's not interested.)
  • Meanwhile, the Club for Growth says it's already raised $100K for the only dude in the race so far, Rep. Jeff Flake, who just announced a few days ago.

  • CT-Sen: In a move that will surely disappoint Beltway hacks endlessly thirsting to write more stories about Camelot, Ted Kennedy, Jr. says he won't seek Joe Lieberman's open senate seat. He did note that he might consider politics in the future (he's 50).
  • FL-Sen: Not really a surprise, but Rep. Connie Mack (R) is amping up his fundraising, hiring a veteran NRSC fundraiser who has also worked for Bill McCollum and Mel Martinez, Anne Ekern. Mack is also having a "major" event this Friday, which will supposedly feature  "cigars." I assume it will also feature top hats and lighting said stogies with $50 bills.
  • MA-Sen: By now you've probably caught wind of the Daily Kos effort to draft Elizabeth Warren, the interim director of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Note also that David Kravitz of Blue Mass Group, the top progressive blog in the Bay State, recently said he also supports a Warren run.
  • VA-Sen: It seems that everyone is trying hard to get DNC chair Tim Kaine to run for the senate seat being vacated by Jim Webb, including Barack Obama himself, who apparently talked on the phone with Kaine yesterday. (But don't these guys talk regularly, anyhow?) Webb also said he wants Kaine to replace him. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Tom Perriello told the Washington Post he'd consider getting in, but only if Kaine - whom Perriello said he wants to see run - doesn't make the race.
  • LA-Gov: Opulence - I has it. So says Bobby Jindal, who is sitting on a $9.2 million stack of doubloons, after hauling in $3.4 million in 2010. Seeing this, Dem state Sen. President Joel Chaisson is too smart to kiss the mini-giraffe. Though he pulled in a decent-ish $180K and checked the "statewide" box on his campaign finance disclosures, Chaisson says he's just hedging his bets in case Jindal decides to run for president instead.
  • OH-Gov: The douche is strong in this one: John Kasich was easily one of the schmuckiest candidates of the 2010 cycle, and one of the most obnoxious Republicans alive - which is saying a hell of a lot. Of course, he hasn't changed one bit since his inauguration. Just check out this video of him calling a police officer who had the temerity to ticket him "an idiot" three times in sixty seconds. Listen in particular to his tone of voice at 1:07. What an asshole.
  • AZ-06: Here's another Republican name in the mix to succeed the running-for-senate Jeff Flake: First-term Mesa Mayor Scott Smith.
  • CA-36: The endorsements just keep rolling in for Janice Hahn, who has now secured the backing of local Dem Reps. Karen Bass, Lucille Roybal-Allard, and Xavier Becerra, the last of whom is a big cheese in House leadership. So far I haven't seen word of any big names coming out for Debra Bowen (but correct me if I'm wrong). Relatedly, for a good look at which sides the various power players might line up on, check out this piece by LA Weekly's Gene Maddaus.
  • By the way, Jane Harman has now said she'll delay her resignation until Feb. 28th at the request of Gov. Jerry Brown. That gives Brown a better chance to consolidate the CA-36 race with a budget-related special election that's likely to be held in June - but even that date is still up in the air. In any event, if round one goes forward in June, then round two (if needed) would take place in August.

  • MI-05: The exact words of 81-year-old Rep. Dale Kildee (D), when asked if he's quitting: "They'll have to carry me out of here." Despite having just $12K in the bank, the veteran lawmaker says he's definitely going for another term, and that you can ignore his warchest: "I usually don't start raising money until March, so that doesn't mean anything."
  • NY-26: Erie County Republican Chair Nick Langworthy says that he and his fellow party leaders for the seven counties which comprise the 26th CD are interviewing candidates this weekend to fill ex-Rep. Chris Lee's seat. Since this is the fourth special election in New York in less than two years, you probably recall that nominees are selected by local party chairs, rather than in a primary. Anyhow, the GOP shortlist:
  • Amherst Town Supervisor Barry Weinstein; Jack Davis, a Democrat turned Republican who unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Tom Reynolds for the same seat; Chris Jacobs, member of the Buffalo school board; the front-runner, Assemblywoman Jane Corwin; Dan Humiston, a businessman and owner of Tanning Bed; and Erie County lawmaker Ed Rath.

    You better believe emphasis added! Oh please oh please pick Jack Davis! Anyhow, on the Dem side, it definitely looks like one speculative candidate is out: departing White House deputy press sec'y Bill Burton is starting a consulting firm, according to Politico, which you'd think would rule out a run.

  • SD-AL: South Dakota's single at-large CD is one seat where we definitely won't have to worry about redistricting, so it makes sense that Steve Israel's reached out ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin about a potential rematch against GOPer Kristi Noem. Herseth Sandlin says they've "traded some emails" and that she's considering the idea - but obviously she hasn't taken the plunge yet, since that would probably have been front-page news here.
  • At the same press briefing, Israel also made a good point: Dems are holding off on announcing House recruits not just because they don't necessarily know where the lines will be drawn, but because they don't want to give Republicans a chance to redistrict strong candidates into oblivion. RCP does report, though, that "Democratic congressmen on the recruitment team have visited 15 states on recruitment trips and made recruitment calls to candidates in another 15 states."

  • State Leges: We had a few special elections the other night. In the Los Angeles area, GOPer Sharron Runner took over her husband's seat in SD-17 in a landslide. In SD-28, Dem Ted Lieu avoided a runoff as well. Both were holds. Over in Minnesota's Iron Range, 25-year-old Carly Melin also held a seat for Team Blue. But in a special election primary in South Carolina's HD-64, Alvin Greene (yes, that Alvin Greene) pull just 37 votes out of 3,960 cast. Wonder if he remembered to vote for himself.
  • And finally, talk about overtime: The last uncalled race of 2010 was decided in court yesterday, with an appeals panel declaring Republican Thomas Kirwan the victor in New York's 100th Assembly District. Interestingly, Kirwan is framing this as a boon to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, pointing out that Republicans now have enough votes to prevent Speaker Shelly Silver from over-riding any Cuomo vetoes.

  • WATN?: Ah, Tom Emmer, man of principle. Two years ago, the former GOP gubernatorial candidate was vigorously fighting Minnesota's ban on expensive satellite radiation clinics, demanding that "market forces" be allowed to work. Now he's a registered lobbyist with only one client... and that client has instructed him to advocated in favor of extending the very same ban. Market forces at work, indeed.
  • In better news, it's always nice to see one of our guys land on her feet. Dem ex-Rep. Betsy Markey (CO-04) has landed a job with the Dept. of Homeland Security. She'll be the "assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs."

    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/17
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    You really did mean "morning" when you said morning


    I noted this last night
    in the open thread, but it's worth putting here too:

    The new version of DRA is up, complete with partisan data from Virginia. You can't shade the map by partisanship for now, though (I assume that's just a bug).

    Anyway, congrats to Dave for more improvements.  


    This looks fantastic!
     I cannot wait to create some maps on that! I am glad it has city lines now.  

    for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




    17, CA-06,  


    [ Parent ]
    The partisan data for Virginia doesn't look right
    The total votes listed in each precinct is the same as the total VAP. Comparing a few precincts in Fairfax with the official results (recalculated just to be Obama/McCain), the percentages look right, but the total votes don't.

    I'm really not liking the popup box being on the right now. I much preferred it being on the top of the screen.

    The partisan data for Maryland is all screwed up now.


    [ Parent ]
    I'm sorry if this is a stupid question,
    but when you make new congressional districts, is there a way to assign the Obama-McCain totals automatically, or do you have to do it yourself? My guess is the latter, which is one reason why it takes people so long to make the new maps.

    I've tried my hand, briefly, at remaking Kansas' congressional districts, but the discussion of the Census information from Illinois made me want to see what I could do in that state.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


    [ Parent ]
    I don't understand what you mean in your question
    But I'll just explain because you sound like you are making it more grand of a task than it is.  Pick your district, shade it in, look right above the map and you get all the info on your district including racial break-down and the Obama/McCain numbers.  If the state doesn't have partisan data, then IIRC the Obama/McCain numbers stay at zero.

    Making a map generally doesn't take long at all if one knows the state well enough.  But I've been working on a TX GOP gerrymander and am now on my final draft after two others went in the garbage.  "Oh, maybe that'd be a better way to do this district.  Shit, it touches 14 others, might as well just start over."


    [ Parent ]
    So someone did answer my question.
    I feel like a jerk for asking it a few more times, but oh well.

    I guess the better question is, which states have partisan data?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


    [ Parent ]
    NY,MD,TX,CA,NM,PA,NC.
    And I think VA's being added.

    18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

    [ Parent ]
    If the state doesn't have partisan data
    in the app, you have to cross-reference precinct or county data (for Kansas, County data is probably enough, the counties are barely populated) from the Secretary of State's Office of Elections.

    18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

    [ Parent ]
    Not sure Elizabeth Warren is the best candidate to run in MA-Sen
    One of the key downfalls to Martha Coakley's run was her inability to rile-up and connect with voters on the campaign trail; she came off as distant and aloof. Not to knock Warren without knowing her abilities, but does she have any campaign experience? I suspect she'll come off uber-professorial and wonkish in this, ala Robert Reich in his '02 gubernatorial run. I think people love Warren as an adviser, but that hardly makes her prime material atop a ticket. I think you'd find only liberal Democrats being enamored with her running.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    Exactly
    Reich, Coakley, need I go on...all qualified smart progressive Democrats in an overwhelming Democratic state that could not connect with voters.  A statewide race in MA is a presidential year should be a slam dunk...but Brown is very popular and comes across as your favorite neighbor or coach of your kids little league team...he has mad political skills and will have a ton of money.  The Dems need a nominee that is scrappy and connect with the average Joe.  

    [ Parent ]
    I wouldn't say "very"
    They need a top-notch candidate to run against him.  Massie might be it, but there are other possibilities out there.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    "very popular"
    would be like over 60.  He's over 50, but not over 60.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    I think Scott Brown just became stronger
    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories...

    Apparently he's about to release a memoir, so he's talking about how he was a victim of sexual abuse as a child.

    Quoting Jon Allen of Politico on the topic --

    He said, "This is really a startling revelation. I can't think of any other member of Congress -- certainly no male member of Congress -- who's come out to talk about sexual abuse that they suffered."

    I'm not sure that's a prelude to a Brown for President boomlet (as Allen is implying), but it would certainly raise his profile for a VP slot.


    [ Parent ]
    No, I wouldn't say that.
    Besides, Clinton also had a traumatizing childhood experience.  His stepdad almost killed him.

    Finally, although I sympathize, I find it odd that his mother didn't find out about this until this bit of the interview was made public.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    I understand
    that most who experience this don't tell their parents, but it seems wrong that everyone is finding out at the same time as her.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Yes, that does seem sort of odd


    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    Not odd at all, she married that guy and didn't protect her son......
    He has no reason to trust her.  Whatever her relationship to her son is, she should be grateful if there is one at all.

    He has no moral obligation to have told her this before telling the public, and she has no moral authority to have demanded it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I think Brown explained it well in the 60 min interview excerpt
    I don't find it odd at all.

    In addition, I think a lot of votes are determined by the "trust" factor, based on empathy. Perhaps it's just an initial emotional reaction, but I think Brown just raised his trust factor among a lot of MA voters.


    [ Parent ]
    He's a politician
    He can explain anything well.

    I'll be the dick and call total bullshit on his motives.  Who writes a memoir after being a Senator for all of a year and drops a bombshell like that, one not even his mom knew?  This is what someone does when they want to raise their profile when they run for President.  Brown is doing the exact same thing but for Senate because if you are a Republican in MA, you need to go all out for a Senate run.

    Hell, I'm not a dick, I'm just horribly pessimistic about why a politician would reveal such a thing, in the manner that he did, in the context of being up for an extremely tough re-election.  The whole thing reeks of political desperation.


    [ Parent ]
    He might
    be VP material.  VP's don't need to have much substance.  However, he's not likely going to be a Senator after 2012.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    I don't think MA
    allows their Senators to run for more than one office at once. Isn't that why Kerry ultimately choice not to run for president in '08? Would a bid for VP mean Brown can't run for reelection?

    Furthermore, Brown's appeal is almost entirely based on personal charisma. Even if he can run for both offices, he can't expect to win a strongly contested Senate race in blue Massachusetts while simultaneously campaigning nationwide alongside the uber-conservative nominee who would pick him. If he wins a full term, it will mean a ton of grip-and-grin campaigning and "all politics is local" platitudes from the talking heads.  

    NY-01/NY-19


    [ Parent ]
    OT: Just have to say Bravo, Scott
    for opening up about such a painful subject while in the public eye.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    for stuff like this, politics doesn't matter


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Allow me to a little cynical
    and suggest that he's milking this for sympathy before a difficult race. I certainly don't want to deny him the pain and the chance to speak his mind, but the first time he opens up about this to his own mother is in a book being sold nationwide? As someone said in a Political Wire comment yesterday, he's making his own mother stand on line at Barnes & Noble to read about this?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    There is a cynicism bone in my body
    And I think it would be more active if it were already 2012.

    Conversely, if this raises Brown's approval rating, and makes us as Ds focus on the most electable D (as opposed to any dude/dudette with a D by their names), then tant mieux.


    [ Parent ]
    I don't think it's going to have
    much of an effect on the race either way, no matter what Brown's intentions were. And if the Democrats aren't working to find a good candidate, even if it's quietly behind the scenes, they deserve to lose.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    You are not the alone what think

    that.

    [ Parent ]
    Allow me to agree with your cyncism
    n/t

    [ Parent ]
    I can guarantee you
    That a sentiment like that would never be uttered on this site about a democratic senator half way into his term admitting he was raped as a child.


    [ Parent ]
    Brown says he was beat up by his stepdad at age 6
    ref http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

    Taking him at his word, that makes it even more understandable (to me) that he wouldn't tell his mom before making these revelations.

    While I'm no shrink, I'd suspect that there's some lingering blame between Scott towards his mom about what happened during his childhood.


    [ Parent ]
    Once again, I'm not calling him a liar.


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    But you are judging him
    And trying to reconcile his actions with what you would have done had you been beaten by a step-father as a child and abused by someone else also.  

    Maybe its complicated.  Maybe being elected Senator gave him the confidence to finally deal with it.  Maybe there's a 1000 different explanations for how he's handling it.

    You only seem to be taking the side of "he's doing it for political reasons".  And its pretty much the most negative view.  And judging people's inter-family relations is just never good, you just don't know what goes on behind closed doors.


    [ Parent ]
    No, I am not judging him nor am I
    reconciling anything based on what I might have done. How he chooses to handle what happened to him* is his decision. I'm simply commenting on the timing.

    I don't see how there's any question that this is at least partly political. The comparison isn't exactly the same, but is there any doubt that Charlie Crist decided to get married in December of 2008, right as people were beginning to think about the Florida Senate race, to quell the rumors he was gay? Why else would Brown reveal it now, when he's starting to ramp his fund raising for what is bound to be a difficult race?

    But again, I have no problem with it being political. People can use what happens to them or what sort of circumstances they face however they choose. Like I said, how he chooses to handle it is his business.

    *And just so we are clear, what happened to him was awful and horrifying. I felt sickened while reading that piece from the Globe or Herald.


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


    [ Parent ]
    I think...
    I think it is inappropriate to discuss whether it was politically motivated regardless of what his intentions really were. Just for the sake of anyone that has ever been sexually victimized in anyway...they shouldn't have to worry about people questioning their intentions if they open up about something like this.

    [ Parent ]
    you do realize this is a lefty site right?
    I figured you would have picked up on that by now considering how long you've been here.

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    Whether you believe him or not, I don't really think anyone really needs to comment on this.  There is always a chance that its true, and if it is, who amongst us had had such a similar experience to be able to tell him how he should hanlde this?

    [ Parent ]
    I wasn't questioning his honesty.
    I completely believe what he's saying in the book. My point was that the timing makes me skeptical that this isn't at least partly political. And if it is partly political, well, then it's partly political.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Can you now?
    Please, tell me, why else is he choosing to talk about this now?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    While in Congress
    I think this particular timing is least political. It's pretty soon after the 2010 elections, essentially just after the State of the Union. The longer he waits, the closer we'd get to Nov 2012, the more political the implications.

    I think when public figures do choose to share something from their private lives, I hope it goes towards better public policies. I hope Brown becomes more of an advocate for children after this.


    [ Parent ]
    I don't think he'd be picked
    for VP. He's probably far too moderate by national standards for the party, but more than that, to the extent candidates can bring a state into play, he doesn't do that. There's no way the Republicans are winning Massachusetts unless they are winning 500-plus Electoral College votes. Why wouldn't they take McDonnell from Virginia instead? He's probably more in line with the party ideologically and he'd probably add a few points to their total.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Unless it was to balance the ticket.
    McCain wanted to fend off his then-moderate image by picking a right-winger.  Maybe the opposite could happen.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    I guess, but you can either pick
    a legitimate moderate (a rare species these days) or pick a genuine conservative that can speak to moderates. Why go with the former when the latter will get you everything the former will without pissing off as much of the base?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    VP's are rarely dealbreakers.
    I mean why else do you think Bush, Sr. picked the immensely boring Quayle instead of someone charismatic?

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    I don't know.
    Maybe it was to appeal to the social conservative wing? After all, Bush never seemed like much of a cultural warrior. He was initially pro-choice when he ran for congress, I think.

    I'm just not sure I see what the Republicans get by adding him to the ticket.

    Also, unless there's some sort of law that prevents this, he could run for his seat and for the vice presidential nod at the same time. But he's not a long-serving incumbent, so if he tried to do that, he'd probably lose. And if the Republicans somehow won the presidential race, they'd probably lose the seat in a special election. Do they want to give up their best chance to hold a seat in Massachusetts in a long, long time?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


    [ Parent ]
    Why Bush picked Quayle
    Bush was still stinging from the Iran-Contra scandal and picked Quayle because he was squeaky clean.

    26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

    [ Parent ]
    You can't win massachussetts...
    ...unless you win the national popular vote thanks to that stupid law Patrick signed a few months ago, remember?

    [ Parent ]
    I agree, not a lot of logic.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    I had no idea.


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    I won't discuss this anymore
    I find your comments and sentiments disgraceful even for the current political climate.

    If an elected official of journalist made any reference to electoral politics while discussing this man's rape there would undoubtedly and deservedly be calls for resignation.


    [ Parent ]
    Uh, okay.
    I don't really see what's disgraceful about what I am saying. I'm merely suggesting that there's a political element to this because, well, Brown's a politician and they tend to use things that happen to them, good or bad, to influence their careers. Giffords will be using the fact that she was shot through the head in any future campaign, just as candidates use their beautiful families, business backgrounds, or military service. It's what they do, for better or worse.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Why do I feel like you've gotten in trouble before for shit like this?


    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I'm 99% sure
    That every state that has put into place NPV legislation has done it as part of an interstate compact - that is, it won't go into effect in any state unless states with at least 270 electoral votes sign on.

    [ Parent ]
    yup
    Exactly what you said.  I just want to give you the other 1% :)

    [ Parent ]
    Wrong
    Live David said, Massachusetts joined an interstate compact that requires states representing 270 EV to join before it has any effect.  Nothing to see here.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    You are thinking of the National Popular Vote Plan
    As I understood it, it would not go into effect unless enough states to comprise a majority of the electoral votes approved it.

    19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

    [ Parent ]
    My guess: a reverse Sister Soljah effect
    I think it would be useful for a conservative R Presidential candidate to PO the conservative base -- IFF the base complains loudly and publicly.  

    [ Parent ]
    But what can be gained from doing that?
    There's probably more to be lost from doing that.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    With the wider electorate
    A bust up with the GOP base would suggest the nominee isn't as conservative. They will come out anyway to oppose the president.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, it's sort of like had McCain chosen Lieberman in '08
    That is, selecting a moderate VP from a liberal state in the hopes that'll somehow bolster GOP chances in blue states. All it does, though, is create problems among the base in swing states. I do think Brown would look terrific on a ticket - charasmatic, strong on the campaign trail, can fundraise, would be a nice centrist counterpart to a conservative. Yet, if it's Romney atop the ticket, you'll have a ton of unenthused social conservatives. I'm not sure who would select Brown for VP, actually. Probably no one.  

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    I believe the R base will turn out in '12
    if the nominee is someone acceptable to social conservatives. At that point, the VP won't matter, especially when they look at the top of the D ticket for comparison.

    Besides, as I think you imply, Joe Lieberman is no Scott Brown.

    I suggest that Mike Huckabee would be the most likely of the leading R contenders to pick Brown -- their populist rhetoric is compatible, despite the contrast in their policy positions.


    [ Parent ]
    Pro-Choice
    It's very rare for a pro-choice Republican to be on the national ticket. That's been a big knock against folks like Tom Ridge and Kay Bailey Hutchison in the past. Not saying it's a rule, or that it's a good idea, but the GOP almost always picks a pro-life VP.

    Other than that, I don't think Brown is too moderate to be on a national ticket. His rhetorical style appeals to the conservative base, and while he'd have a few votes to explain away, he could easily turn himself into a fiscally conservative, budget-hawk type.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    Yes, that is the biggest stumbling block.
    Other than that, and perhaps something from his time in the Massachusetts legislature (did he ever vote to raise taxes?), it's more of an appearance thing than anything else. As you note, that can be changed. Still, I am not sure that he adds much of anything to the ticket.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    He wont be picked
    Can he run for Senate and VP at the same time is the first question.  The second is what about with a Dem Gov and a Dem legislature.

    [ Parent ]
    Excellent answer, thank you, n/m


    [ Parent ]
    He'll only run for president if the U.S. Senate race looks like a Dem pick-up
    As it stands, the race is probably toss-up/Tilt R, and Brown rightfully realizes he'll have little shot in this GOP field.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    In the future.
    I can't see him running for president in 2012. In 2016, maybe, but not next year. It's far more likely he'll be selected as vice president, but that's not really like, either.


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    You're right: she's not the best candidate.
    She'd probably end up being a fine senator, and if this were a situation where she was supposed to fill out a year or two of a term, or she was from a state where the Democrats' bench was very thin, I'd support her. But I'm sure the state is filled with Democrats who would be just as good as her and bring all of the good things a seasoned hand bring to the campaign trail.


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    I suppose
    Now, to Mass Dems out there.  Are you recruiting and getting your act together for 2012?  As Patrick showed, it is very possible to build a winning coalition against a moderate, likeable Republican.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    VA-Sen

    I like very much the encouraging news about this race.

    After a successful recruitment for CT-Sen, it would be very important to recruit the strongest option for Va-Sen.


    I'm not the only one
    saying that Kaine having his arm twisted doesn't make him seem like the best possible candidate...

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

    "why are Democratic Party leaders in such a rush to coronate the guy who apparently needs to be talked into it?"


    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    What? You think Kaine is not the best candidate if he's unenthusiastic about running?
    Next you're going to tell me that the election will be decided in the Prince William/Loudoun exurbs!

    [ Parent ]
    NO!
    I'd never repeat myself like that :-)


    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    Kaine can appeal very well to that region.
    He was the Mayor of Richmond and did well in NoVa after all.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    This is from 2005
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Most interesting portion of that article
    is this tidbit near the bottom;

    "The GOP appears to have shown its cards of wanting to run against Perriello with their quick onslaught of attacks on Kaine."

    The old addage, "Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it" comes to mind...

    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    Your concern is duly noted
    In fact, been seeing a lot of concern from you lately.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama doesn't need Perriello to get the base out
    Latest PPP poll has core Democratic constituencies more excited about 2012 than Republicans. Plus, as the incumbent, he either wins or losses on his record not on turnout. Perriello would need Obama far more than the other way around. I maintain the belief that if Kaine doesn't want to run then he won't.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    I was actually a bit puzzled by the part about the Senate candidate helping Obama.

    "the base will already be there for Obama -- and even if it's not, Perriello isn't a powerful enough figure to bring them back on his own.

    "Can you imagine any scenario in which a Senate candidate is helping a presidential candidate?," pointed out one Democrat on Twitter who is using the handle of @DraftNye"

    I think this is just cover smoke, they only issue here is who can best protect this open seat, IMO neither Kaine nor Periellor nor Connolly would have a significant effect on the Presidential race, to me the key question is who is most likely to keep the Senate Seat, regardless of which candidate wins the state's electoral votes (I'm assuming the race will be very close and that ideology, regionalism, personal carisma and quality of campaign organization will be the deciding factors).

    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    It's been all of eight days
    since Webb announced he wasn't running for reelection. Maybe because of his status as a statewide figure that doesn't need to raise his profile, or because of his wife and kids, or because of his ability to read a calender and realize the primary, let alone the election, isn't for more than a year, he doesn't feel the need to jump in at a moment's notice. It's one thing if he was dithering for month's on end, but it's been, once again, eight goddamn days since Webb ended his hold on the seat. The excessive tea leave reading is a little much sometimes.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Didn't Udall in NM have to have
    his arm twisted?  That worked out fine.

    No one cares in the end.  There's not a single person who won't vote for him in the general because he dithered a bit.


    [ Parent ]
    Sherrod Brown too
    These people often just like their ego to be stoked by the chase. I think the argument is that if Kaine's heart isn't completely in it he may go through the motions and not do what is necessary to win. I do agree with that somewhat. But I seriously don't see somebody being persuadable if they aren't interested a little themselves.

    [ Parent ]
    Brown was always interested...
    But, early on, he didn't think he would be able to win... then, when the environment improved for Democrats, he suddenly decided to jump back in and screw over Paul Hackett.  Unfortunately, Hackett was so pissed off, he quit politics altogether which is a shame 'cos he would have been a good one to run again in OH-2 and probably would have won.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    Udall said at first that he was out and later changed his mind once it became pretty clear that if he jumped in he would instantly become the front runner.

    We are over 20 months away from the election. Just because Kaine didn't say anything the day that Webb said that he was retiring doesn't mean that he doesn't want to be a Senator. Give me a break. He isn't going to leave the DNC out to dry without a replacement, he has great name ID throughout the state 20 months or 19 months it really doesn't matter that much when he declares at this stage.

    At any rate my bet is that he declares at this weekend's Jefferson Jackson dinner.


    28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


    [ Parent ]
    Kaine has probably been in this race since day one
    This is simply how you build a crescendo into announcing, by making everyone beg you into running and all the free, positive press that comes with it.

    [ Parent ]
    Sandlin looking to become a lobbyist...
    I guess a re-run is out, then... damn...

    http://www.rollcall.com/news/-...


    That article also says:
    Herseth Sandlin told the Rapid City Journal that she has "been doing a lot of traveling and spending time with family and friends."

    "It's pretty early in the new Congress. I'm exploring all my professional options, looking for my own personal balance," Sandlin told the paper. "I'm looking forward to sitting down with the chairman, but I haven't made any decisions about what I'll do politically. It's too early."



    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    What I gather
    is she's keeping her options open.  However, she needs to stay around and maybe run in 2012 or later.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Virginia: Regional growth breakdown
    BlueVA has a map out on this.
    http://www.bluevirginia.us/dia...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    MN-08/06: Clark to run against Cravaack?
    Talk in the Star Tribune about Tarryl Clark challenging Chip Cravaack in 2012 if her residence gets drawn into the 8th district:

    http://www.startribune.com/pol...


    Good


    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    MN 8
    When I drew a new map for MN, the northeastern district was right at its population target and didn't need to change at all. MN's current districts look like something a court would draw, and I wouldn't expect a big change given the D governor and R legislature.

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    A court did draw them
    And I would be absolutely astonished if they didn't draw them again.

    In fact, the last 3 redistricting cycles have been drawn by the courts, this will make 4 in a row.

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    [ Parent ]
    epitome of "Wrong part of the district"
    She will be absolutely flattened by Reinert, or a different Iron Range politician in the primary, even if St. Cloud is put into the 8th. I honestly don't see the 8th changing much at all this cycle, as it is nearly exactly at population, and the courts drew it, and ill draw its new version as well. Adding St. Cloud would require major shifts in the disstrict, purely on the volume of voters you'd pick up by doing that.

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    [ Parent ]
    Wrong part of the district for the DFL endorsement/primary
    But perfect part of that potential district for the general as it'd give her another base of support to pair with the Iron Range, a pairing that'd probably make it impossible for Cravaack to win.  If the courts draw in St. Cloud, then they are going to be taking out Republican areas simply by virtue of geography.

    I'd personally love to see Clark hold-down Peterson's district to help us out for the next 30 years, but I dream.


    [ Parent ]
    Much more likely
    St. Cloud may end up in the 7th, which would be a better fit IMO. And she would be a strong successor to Peterson, but I think that Kent Eken would be our best candidate for the 7th when Peterson hangs it up. Clark just lives in a really crappy place to be a Democratic politician.

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    [ Parent ]
    Worst place, period, to be a Democrat looking to move up
    It's either that or statewide.  She also could, and should run for her old state senate seat if not MN-8.  A state senate seat is a perfectly fine launching pad to statewide, especially since I can only think of two women currently worth mentioning in the legislature.  (Hortman and Bonoff.)   She's got the goods, she hasn't put in the years yet.  MN-8 would probably be an easier race than her state senate seat if she can get in with the Iron Rangers.  MN-6 would be a total waste of time and political capital for her.  If the new MN-6 still includes St. Cloud and is made by the courts, it will probably be more Republican than now because the areas that will get axed are the tail-end suburbs in the eastern portion of the district.

    [ Parent ]
    TN-Sen
    While the PPP numbers may encourage Bredesen to get in their presidential numbers do not. Sans Palin. Though in all cases Obama does better than the 15 point loss to McCain.

    Huckabee leads 53-41, Romney 48-41 and Gingrich 46-43. Palin ties at 45 percent.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


    Losing only by 7 and 3 to Romney and Gingrich in Tennessee
    That's actually pretty damn decent for a Democrat, especially one named Barack Obama.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Interesting poll representing Romney's Electoral College weakness
    While he is genericly stronger than others nationally, he picks up some voters in CA and NY that are useless, but he's obviously weaker in the south, including Tennessee of what can be called the "Appalachian south".  

    Romney could well do significantly worse than Huckabee because Huckabee can hold the McCain southeast, whereas Romney could well lose Georgia, SC, Tenn, Missouri and WV.  (While Huck would likely only lose AZ, MT and maybe the Dakotas.)


    [ Parent ]
    I'd peg this at Likely R
    Sure, Clinton carried Tennessee twice, but it's hardly a blue-friendly state. Today's Al Gore would lose here by 15%+. Again, if Palin's the nominee, tons of pink states will shift to blue, but, otherwise, I think Gingrich would still win here rather comfortably. Obama might contest it, but only half-heartedly. The voting electorate isn't even that terribly GOP-friendly - it's about a 33-33-33 split among the three. The problem is, Independents and even a lot of moderates tend to vote GOP here.  

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    I agree, it's probably Likely R, for now at least.
    But why would Gingrich do so well, particularly with Independents?

    Consider the following examples. Leave everything else from 2008 the same but assign Obama 43 percent of Independents, which is what he gets in the PPP poll versus Gingrich. In a 32/33/35 D/R/I breakdown, that would give him 43.58 percent.

    But in 2008, he only received 84 percent of Democrats. In the PPP poll, he receives 89 percent. Readjust those numbers, and he gets 45.18 percent.

    If he only received one-third of the remaining Independents, he'd be at 50 percent. That would give him 47.63 percent of the vote.

    He's still losing in all of these situations, but it's a kind of narrow loss. It's also the sort of base that gives someone like Bresden the chance to peel of ten percent of Republicans and/or win 95 percent of Democrats along with 55 percent of Independents for a comfortable win.

     

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


    [ Parent ]
    I think Gingrich would basically perform McCain numbers across-the-board
    At this point, Gingrich seems like a rather stale commodity, but I think he'll actually perform quite well in the debates and he may stage a resurgence in favorability. I do think, however, that he's, at best, merely capable of flipping Indiana and North Carolina.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Why would Gingrich do so much better amongst
    Independents than Obama? And what about amongst Democrats? It's possible, but I am not sure if he's skilled enough to walk the fine line between the normal Republicans and the Tea Party Republicans, and if he has to go full on Teabagger to rile up the base, he'd probably turn off a fair number of moderates in the state.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Gingrich's strength, such as it is, has not been on display yet
    And that is intelligent speech, idea-based ideology, sound byte thinking like Contract for America, etc.

    To be kind, Palin and/or Bachman are not very bright.  Romney won't "electrify" the base in debates.  

    Gingich IS stale, now.  Put him on a national stage, and he could be the articluate guy who enlivens the base.  I don't think he will, but I can see it as a possibility.  The GOP is looking for a firebreather who is not a clown.


    [ Parent ]
    Gingrich is great with words....
    ...but he's a lousy spokesman for them.  He needs someone else to say them 'cos his persona is very abrasive, elitist, and obnoxious in every way... a huge put off for most people watching him.

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed, but he doesn't need to appeal to "most people"
    He has no chance of winning a general.  What he needs to win is an amount of support sufficient to get the nomination.  

    He isn't looking for "most people" support.  In fact, he is looking to dominate the people who are themsleves abrasive, obnoxious and elitist.

    Then also, there is a chance that the nomination comes down to Romney versus anybody-but-Romney, and Gingrich is articulate enough to draw those contrasts.

    Put another way, a large portion of the GOP is looking for a person to drive a lynch mob, almost literally.  I can see a lot of wingnuts thinking, "He's a smart asshole, and that is just what we need."  So, his staleness will disappear if he gets up in debates and froths at the mouth.  It shouldn't get him the nomination, but I think he will seem more interesting on the campaign trail than now when he just seems 15 years out of date.


    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough to distinguish primaries vs. general......
    Gingrich is despised among the general electorate and Obama would crush him.  It would be a pretty bad blowout.

    But in the primaries, yeah, he could slip through.

    To me the field has crystallized a little more regarding who I worry about, and who I don't.  Pawlenty worries me the most, so I hope he performs badly in Iowa because that's the end of him if he doesn't win there or at least overperform and surprise with a close 2nd-place finish.  Thune worries me a little, but like Pawlenty he needs to catch fire in an early state, perhaps in his case an Iowa win not necessary but he's gotta win at least one of the first 4.  But I'm hoping Thune makes it easy for us and simply doesn't run, and he's due to announce by the end of the month which now is just 10 more days.  Daniels I suspecxt won't run, but he'll decide by May for sure.  And Romney is running for sure and seems likely to lose Iowa and win NH and Nevada, with SC and Super Tuesday the big question marks for him.  Barbour is a wildcard who could cause Romney problems in some early states, as could Gingrich at least in Iowa and SC.

    The best thing for us so far, and bad for Republicans, is that no one but Herman Cain(!) has filed exploratory papers to raise money.  Big mistake, Obama will raise $1 billion, and the eventual Republican nominee will need to raise as much as possible starting 3 months ago.  Not to mention that since each of these guys and Palin are very weak, they needed to be actually campaigning full-bore and testing campaign strategies, tactics, and messages.  Now, when voters don't care at all, is the time to make the inevitable mistakes.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    To clarify, the only GOPers who could give Obama at least a little bit of a scare...
    ...are Pawlenty, Thune, Daniels, and Romney.  And I think Obama beats any of them, especially Romney, but at least it would be single-digits against any of them unless the nominee runs an acutely poor campaign.

    Barbour et al. are a joke.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Either Thune or Pawlenty scares me the most
    simply because I'm not sure how they would be perceived. (Perhaps Daniels is like that, too, but I go back and forth about that.) Thune is pretty far to the right on all sorts of issues, from what I can tell, and Pawlenty is trying to get there (DADT reversal? Seriously, you clown?), but will that hurt them? If the Democrats try to hit him on his immigration stances (English as the national language, building a border fence, no on comprehensive immigration reform), will he play at all in Colorado, Nevada, or New Mexico, for instance?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Pawlenty's biggest vulnerability is one that gets little attention so far, except...
    ...he got called out on it in an interview just within the last day or so.  He criticizes Obama on the economy and on fiscal policy, but a CNN reporter called him out on the same problems in Minnesota that Pawlenty left behind.

    That's Pawlenty's real problem, that he left behind an economy in recession, and the state in poor fiscal condition.  And his job approvals were upside down when he finished.  These are the kinds of things that resonate with a broad base of voters much more than reinstituing DADT, although that, too, hurts with socially moderate/liberal anti-tax white suburbanites, and with others to whatever extent people perceive social issues they don't care about as priorities for Pawlenty.

    Make no mistake, everyone has his vulnerabilities, and Obama I'm confident is likely to beat even the best the GOP can offer next year.  But at least with Pawlenty the attacks aren't ready-made, you have to think through his record to find the soft spots.

    Contrast that to almost everyone else except Thune and Daniels.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    But that's just it:
    they aren't completely defined yet, so as much as we can define them, they can define themselves. It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see Pawlenty try to pass the buck on the state's problems off to the legislature or Obama for supposedly destroying the economy. It'd be nonsense, of course, but it sounds plausible enough so that it's not completely ridiculous. And considering the ease with which Republican lies are tossed around with very little push back from the media, I worry that he could succeed.

    I just hope the Obama campaign is prepared to walk the fine line between crushing these guys and going overboard. I still think of how the Democrats raked Cheney over the coals in 2004, to the point where one talking head on television said that all he had to do was come out there and not eat a live baby, and he'd be fine. I'm confident in the campaign's ability to do this, on most days at least.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


    [ Parent ]
    Agreed big time
    I've become a lot more optimistic about our senate picture right now largely because of how absurdly weak the top of the GOP ticket looks (I don't think that Thune will take the plunge, he's relatively young, he knows he can wait 'til 2016 and build a better infrastructure and run against a less formidable Democrat, I agree with you about Daniels as well).

    I go back and forth with whether or not Mitt Romney is really all that dangerous, probably only granting that Romney's real strength is that he's a really strong fundraiser (even without tapping into his millions, Romney was still second only to Giuliani who could depend on New York money).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Romney's fundraising actually wasn't so great......
    A huge percentage of Romney's spending in '07/'08 was his own money.  What he raised from others actually wasn't all that much.

    Romney's ultimate problem is that he has a relatively low ceiling in the primaries.  And that means he needs either an atomized field, or one or two rivals who rise up who are clearly unelectable like Palin or Gingrich.  So Romney does have a plausible shot.

    But against Obama, I think Romney would have real problems.  Like Pawlenty, he was unpopular by the end of his governorship, and he has no public record otherwise.  And his only gubernatorial achievement was ObamaCare Lite!  The political media talks up the Olympics and Romney's business background, but the voting public doesn't really give a rat's ass about those things; voters value government service in picking a President.  And Romney doesn't offer much in that way.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I've been meaning to compile a list
    of all the Republicans, in government or in the media, that supported Romney last time but criticized Obama heavily for his health care plan. Then I might try to call someone like Marsha Blackburn to see how she justifies such a move. If nothing else, the mental gymnastics should prove hilarious.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not really sure what
    Romney's coalition is supposed to be.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    from what i read, this pertains to TN?
    if so, wouldn't the fact that he's a southern politician impact the advantage with independents?  the others except palin) are unknown northern and westerners, but Gingrich is one of them.  

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    Um, no, Gingrich is a disaster and is more Goldwater than McCain......
    Um, have you looked at polling on Gingrich's favorables?  They are always badly underwater, in Palin territory.  That's much worse than McCain, who was always in slightly positive territory during the presidential election.

    he openly bought into Dinesh D'Souza's psycoanalytical conspiracy theory that Obama is animated by an "Kenyan anti-colonial mentality."  Gingrich also explicitly called Sonia Sotomayor racist.  He never apologized for or otherwise walked back these or any other outlandish comments he's made over so many years.

    The guy is a bombthrower, always was.  Too many political junkies, apparently I see even on our side, seem to buy into this notion that Gingrich is some sort of well-spoken intellectual.  He's not, and neither do most voters see him that way.

    Newt's public image is a disaster.

    Obama will win a higher national vote share against Gingrich than any Democrat since LBJ.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Supposedly
    his doctoral thesis concerns Belgian education policy in the Congo, even though he doesn't speak French and never visited Africa.

    [ Parent ]
    Following up, recent polling on Gingrich......
    The most recent PPP poll has Gingrich at a horrific 27-52 favorability.

    Fox News didn't ask favorability but whether various GOPers would make a good President or not, and by a whopping 23-60 respondents said "no" regarding Gingrich.

    The trial heat polling between Obama and Gingrich isn't close.  Rasmussen predictably is closest with their most recent "poll" (must use scare quotes anymore when citing Rasmussen) showing Obama up 8; Fox News had Obama up 20, NBC/WSJ by 19.

    The notion that Gingrich would perform in McCain's ballpark is absurd.

    There are 4 people I'm at least slightly worried about vs. Obama:  Pawlenty; Thune; Daniels; and Romney.  And Romney comes with the asterisk that I think RomneyCare dooms him in the primaries, and even if he slips through he can't challenge Obama on health care so that's a substantial handicap for him in trying to establish a contrast.

    Everyone else, like Gingrich, Palin, Barbour, etc., would be a disaster for the GOP.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I completely agree
    But I doubt Gov. Daniels or Sen. Thune runs, and if Pawlenty doesn't perform exceptionally well in Iowa - I actually think it will really hurt him if he loses the state outright, especially to a candidate who will win New Hampshire (Romney) or a candidate who will win South Carolina (Palin).

    I would be worried about Huckabee somewhat, but he seems more interested in being a pundit who toys with a presidential campaign than a presidential candidate who toys with a career as a pundit (sort of the anti-Palin in this regard, although it remains to be seen whether she ends up making the race either).

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


    [ Parent ]
    I kind of agree.
    The thing about Gingrich is that he's far more well spoken than someone like Palin and can play the game pretty well. He's just as conservative as any other standard Republican, if not more so, but he doesn't come across as badly, or at least he comes across badly in a different way. I guess you could say I wouldn't be astonished if he managed to remake his image slightly--aided, in part, by Democrats who attack him in the same way they attacked Cheney, making him look normal and reasonable by comparison--but it's far from a guarantee. Obama is leading, although slightly, amongst Independents in the PPP poll against Gingrich, who as you note isn't an unknown figure, even if he hasn't been in the news as much recently. Maybe Tennessee voters will change their minds if they have to choose between the two, but I don't think it's right to say he's bound to clean up as well as McCain did.

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Gingrich is worse than a bunch of GOPers and his public image past the point of no return......
    There are not tons of undecideds on Gingrich's favorability, most people have an opinion, and very consistently he's underwater by double-digits.  It's pretty bad for him.  And this is after a 20-year pattern of bombthrowing and well-known political and personal foibles through the 90s.  This isn't merely an early public impression he can overcome.  You don't overcome that.

    People like Romney and Pawlenty and Thune and Daniels aren't bombthrowers.  Even Barbour isn't much of a bombthrower, but of course he has a narrow geographic appeal and a race problem which is the worst thing he can have as a right-wing Mississippi Boss Hogg lookalike with a thick Southern drawl.

    Again, political junkies and Beltway types see Newt as some sort of intellect, but most voters don't.  A high-brow intellect isn't what most voters seek anyway, they're not a faculty council judging a student defend a dissertation.  And even in that regard Newt doesn't offer anything more than Obama or many other Republicans who will run.  Newt is just an angry bombthrower who most Americans dislike.

    I'm actually astounded by the disconnect between the political media in particular and these prospective candidates' public images and real-life strengths and weaknesses.  Voters aren't political junkies, if you don't appeal to them from a distance, you got nuthin'.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    The analogy to Goldwater makes sense
    Barry was also well-spoken and intellectual.

    Newt is no dummy. He knows his weaknesses. He should know that barring a double-dip recession, he doesn't have a chance in '12 even if he gets the nomination.

    Perhaps that's what he's looking for in his legacy -- the Barry Goldwater of the first half of the 21st century. Sure, it might just be an image among DC insiders, but many of them write the (recent) history books too.

    While a Newt as the '12 nominee might be a "throwaway," there may be no better time for such a move, assuming President Obama stays => 50% approval.


    [ Parent ]
    I wouldn't assume Newt has a realistic self-assessment......
    In all fairness, we're all impervious to believing we're disliked by anyone.  And it puzzles us all that anyone wouldn't like us.  That's human nature.

    But of course part of being a good candidate is an honest self-assessment, no matter how hard it is.

    I don't think Newt realizes how strongly disliked he is, it doesn't penetrate him.  If it did, he simply wouldn't run.  The guy has an enormous ego that is more impervious than most people's egos.

    I was thinking about this further last night, and making it even more stark was to realize this:  most American voters actively dislike Newt more than a decade after they stopped thinking about him.  Newt hasn't been in the headlines since he stepped down as Speaker after the 1998 midterms.  And most voters pay attention really only to headlines; they're not political junkies, they're not paying attention to Newt's musings on this-es or thats.  His occasional hand grenade toss (e.g., "Sotia Sotomayor is racist") gets more amplified coverage, and of course only hurts him, but even that coverage is very fleeting.  And for all that, all polling shows Newt deeply underwater.

    It's actually awful hard to stay that unpopular for that long after you've left the news.  Even deeply unpopular former Presidents see a rebound.  A lot of people have a soft spot for Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, even if they were unhappy in real time and voted for Reagan and Clinton, respectively.  But that hasn't happened with Newt.  And that means it will never happen.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Obama and Palin Tied in Tennesseee
    It's not a particularly surprising result. With the exception of Huckabee, who manages to get a McCain-like margin, all of the other Republicans under-perform in this poll. Palin and Obama are tied at 46 percent. Romney only leads by him by seven and Gingrich only by three. Even Huckabee doesn't manage to do as well as McCain, only leading Obama by 12.

    Unless he's rolling in the money more than even optimists like me think and the Republicans are bound to crash and burn, I doubt he contests the state. That is, unless there's a potentially winnable Senate seat. It's only one poll, but it's certainly encouraging to see Corker trailing Bresden. I have no doubt that Bresden would outperform Obama, but by enough to overcome Obama doing poorly at around 40 percent? Probably not. But if Obama can manage to get to at least 45 percent of the vote, or better yet 46 or 47 percent, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bresden pull it out against Corker. He didn't focus on the state in 2008--CNN tells me about $500,000 was spent, but only one visit was made, and it's not clear when--so he probably has some room to grow simply by contesting it seriously this time. Even a minimal improvement in Eastern Tennessee, going from 28 percent of the vote to 32 percent, would add a lot to his totals when combined with maximized turnout in the Democratic areas. It's probably worth looking into, especially if it can be used to sweeten the deal to get Bresden into the race.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


    I don't see him contesting the state
    Unless his job approval gets into the mid-fifties and stays there and/or he gets a truly divisive opponent.

    [ Parent ]
    Even if it means enticing Bresden
    into the race? If I were Bresden, that's one of the first questions I'd be asking when Patty Murray shows up at my door.

    I'm not sure how much it would be to seriously contest the state as they plan to do with Virginia or Colorado. It'd probably be slightly more expensive since they would be starting from scratch, but at the same time, I am not sure if the state has any truly expensive media markets. And since his strategy would be more like minimizing the losses rather than explicitly playing to win, perhaps it'd be even less than I think. But thinking in purely absolute terms, is it really that hard to imagine Obama being able to drop $10 to $15 million in the state?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


    [ Parent ]
    Devils advocate
    Knowing how conservative Dems think he would probably be more likely to run if Obama promised NOT to contest the state. Which is silly because that way you get all of the hurt with non of the benefit.

    [ Parent ]
    I've wondered stuff like that myself.
    But is there really any evidence of a candidate losing votes by contesting an area? I imagine that anyone truly incensed by Obama's presence is already fired up to vote for the Republicans anyway. Overall, I think Obama's presence helps Bresden far more than it hurts.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Nope, he's unlikely to contest the state
    And I'm guessing Obama and his team aren't overconfident about his chances at this point (not because I don't think he'll win, just because it's too early to be either overconfident or pessimistic), so they probably won't be promising to contest Tennessee as leverage to get Breseden into the race.  

    [ Parent ]
    Would it really be that hard to finance
    a half-serious, or even an entirely serious, race in the state? According to the CNN ad tracker, he spent about $16 million on ads in Indiana in 2008. That figure obviously doesn't include costs for a ground game, but if his fund raising is strong, is it really that hard to imagine him dropping some money into the state, perhaps half of what he spends on a state like Indiana?

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Perhaps
    But far, far too early to be making those kind of decisions. At this point he could just as easily be fighting tooth and nail to keep PA and IA.

    [ Parent ]
    Probably, but I would be surprised
    if this topic didn't come up when they try to talk to Bresden. He's personally wealthy and probably wouldn't have an issue raising money, but the added support of a presidential campaign helps in a number of ways.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Obama should not contest TN
    As a Tennessee Democrat, who has actually run multiple successful legislative campaigns in this state, I would argue ferociously against wasting funds in Tennessee. The TN Democratic Party is a complete wreck and completely useless as an organization at this point in time. This reality is illustrated by the fact that the state-wide party infrastructure has been allowed to deteriorate to the point where it is virtually non-existent and/or irrelevant in most parts of the state outside of the urban areas. The demographic and political affiliation trends are also currently trending strongly away from the current Democratic brand, and those trends will continue until the TNDP can re-brand itself in a way relevant to suburban and/or rural voters.

    We Tennessee Democrats have to get our house in order.  Only once the TNDP is relevant as a political force in this state again should it be contested by a Democratic presidential campaign.

    Democrat: TN-8


    [ Parent ]
    Why can't the Obama campaign revitalize it
    while it contests the state and leave it stronger for future campaigns? Even if they are doing the most basic stuff to stabilize the party, wouldn't it have a positive effect? If Obama were to contest the state, couldn't the state Democrats agree on a platform and them use that as the new way to talk to voters?

    Keep in mind that I am talking about very minor movements, nothing that constitutes a huge leap forward, that would basically be a statewide campaign of minimizing losses to give Bresden a stronger base. Do you really think it's that much of a dead end? Do you think it's impossible to for Obama to improve maybe two or three points in each county that he didn't win in 2008, which of course is most of them, just by having a presence? What if they were to, you know, do it competently? Is going from 25 percent to 30 percent in a county really that went heavily against him last time really that hard to imagine? And what about the Democratic areas--is there anything left to be mined there?

    You certainly know the state better than I do, but I can't think of a situation where actually having a campaign presdence has hurt a candidate. In other words, by doing something, anything at all, improvement is all but certain.  It's not like having an active campaign in Knox County is going to make him win, but perhaps instead of the 37.73 percent he received in 2008, he could get himself up to 41 percent?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


    [ Parent ]
    I doubt it would revitalize the TNDP
    The Obama Campaign contesting TN would certainly improve turnout and mitigate the margin of defeat, however it would not be a worthwhile investment unless the campaign had money to burn and a comfortable margin in other key states. So don't get the impression that I discount that, but I doubt it would do much as far as dealing with the organizational and leadership issues plaguing  the TNDP and its county organizations. That is going to take years of infusing/recruiting new pragmatic leadership and rebuilding the party from the ground-up into something that appeals to a wider swath of the Tennessee electorate.

    As far as a Bredesen Senate run goes, he is his own brand, separate from the TNDP. The vast majority of Tennesseans don't associate him with the label "Democrat", instead they associate him with "competent/non-controversial leadership". He carried every county in 2006 and managed to have no coat-tails aside from a single State Senate seat. In fact, that pick-up was the only Democratic gain during his 8 years in office! Why? Because people could vote for him and still not like the Democratic brand. Contesting TN in 2012 would certainly help Bredesen if done right, but I wouldn't look for any joint campaign stops in a scenario where Bredesen actually runs AND the President contests TN.  

    Democrat: TN-8


    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough.
    I'll consider your assessment of the state of the party in Tennessee spot on, and if it is, I'm still puzzled. I get that states change in their views and that parties have bad cycles, but I don't get how some parties consistently use the same broken methods of trying to get elected.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    States do go through cycles, but some parties fail to adapt
    Tennessee Democrats have lost seats in the State House in every cycle since 1998. Now of course, the State Senate was not much better. So for literally well over a decade the TNDP has been in a steep decline, with good cycles equating to minimal losses to ever decreasing majorities and/or (eventually) minorities. Why some parties, like the TNDP fail to adapt, is largely due to the interests that historically control the organization. The TNDP is not a place where the best and brightest are recruited or rewarded; rather having the right connections and being part of the right societal networks (think "good old boy") counts for a lot more. Thus, we almost always get nepotism and/or inept people in charge of party operations. Plus, lots of folks were in denial all the way down....acting as if the whole Republican trend was an errant fad that would reverse itself any year with people going back to their "yellow dog Democrat" roots of lore. Watching it all up close, esp.listening to long-term incumbents deny reality, was/is quite pathetic.

    I am a strong supporter of Tennessee Democrats and want to see us become relevant in state politics again, but I am not going to defend an inept and mismanaged organization like the TNDP.

    Democrat: TN-8


    [ Parent ]
    On the other hand,
    even if this was a one time boost, where the campaign realized its efforts were unlikely to make a lasting impression, I could still see them dropping money into the state if only to give Bresden a boost. They'd probably figure that the expense was worth the extra senate seat, and they'd be right.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    There are different ways to "contest" a state
    Some comments see to think there is a generic way to contest a state.  That isn't true at all.

    Put another way, Obama can sopend a middling amount of money aimed almost exclsuively at driving up black voter turnout.  This would undoubtedly help in the Senate race, without encouraging a white backlash that could occur with blanket TV ads.  In contrast blanket TV ads would be a fine tactic in Indiana or Arizona or Montana and the Dakotas.

    If this poll was taken six weeks before the general, against Romney, it would be idiocy to not spend significantly to boost black turnout.  There would be a chance of winning the state for Obama, but the spending would ensure a Senate win.


    [ Parent ]
    I agree with this assessment
    If the Obama Campaign had the resources and reasonable expectations of a Bredesen win, this would be the way to try to help the Senate Democrats pick up an extra seat. It would not really be "contesting" Tennessee in the sense of trying to win it, but rather leveraging the goodwill certain constituencies hold towards the President to ramp up turn-out in targeted cities/counties - and in doing so hopefully getting those  targeted voters to remember to vote Democratic down-ballot.

    Democrat: TN-8

    [ Parent ]
    Kasich stop had racial overtones
    Followed the link to see Kasich calling a cop an idiot after three years had passed. Then followed a suggestion there to go to progressohio d-o-t org.

    That site had the video from inside the cop's car. Not until the end of it did I notice this little thing -- though I have a hunch that Kasich noticed it IMMEDIATELY -- the "idiot" traffic cop was apparently a black man.


    Chicago-Mayor: Dick Morris backs Gery Chico
    http://www.suntimes.com/news/s...

    This is, legit, one of the most entertaining political races in a long while.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    "Dick Morris backs Gery Chico"
    well, that means Chico can't possibly win.  congrats Mayor Emmanuel, possibly Braun, or Mayor None of These People!

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    This is almost a sideshow at this point
    Rahmbo has this 98-99% locked up now, he just needs to not do anything stupid. Chico, CMB, and all their antics are almost irrelevant  now, as they may not even make it to a runoff. I'd actually say that Emmanuel has a ~60% chance of winning outright w/o a runoff.

    Male, VA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Speaking of 60%, I suspect there's a chance Rahm could even garner that much
    Braun and Chico have had a MISERABLE last few weeks. The only thing standing in Rahm's way is the improbable possibility that Braun stages a resurgence among the black vote, which would come almost entirely at the expense of Rahm. The mainstream pollsters say Braun's all out-of-luck. Her internals suggest her numbers have ticked-up among blacks. We shall see. My hunch is we're looking at something like 54 Rahm, 16 Chico, 14 Braun, 10 Del Valle. Of course, even if Rahm misses the run-off, Chico and Braun are so crippled as it is, he'll still beat either of them by at least 2 to 1.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Holy cow, this is getting interesting!
    The Dem Senators in Wisconsin have walked out, reportedly left the state, to deny the chamber a quorum to vote on the bill!  This is awesome!
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    it will probably have the same impact as
    those Texas Democrats who left the state to avoid the Delayamander.  

    [ Parent ]
    This time
    there is massive public opposition.  Also, 3/5ths are required for a quorum and there are no Dixiecrats in WI.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Those guys went to New Mexico
    Where are these guys going? The UP of Michigan? Maybe Minesota or North Dakota?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    mn would make sense
    don't go somewhere with a gov friendly to walker.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    A little birdie told me
    They hopped on a flight from Madison to Duluth. My guess is they are still there. Dayton won't extradite them if Wisconsin asks. Walker gave the big "F You" to Dayton by reneging on the tax reciprocity Minnesota and Wisconsin have long had together.

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    [ Parent ]
    I hope it works
    As someone from a neighboring state, I'm not supporting Scott Walker's attempt to turn Wisconsin into Mississippi.  

    [ Parent ]
    A lot of people
    from Southern states especially, underestimate the strength of organized labor in places like Wisconsin and Minnesota. We enjoy a high standard of living, higher than most, because of this. My grandfather was a union iron miner, my father was a union iron miner, and I myself have been a member of 3 different unions in the past few years. I don't see this blowing over, like Walker is certainly hoping. There are recall petitions on 8 Republican senators out alright, and will undoubtedly gather enough signatures to force a recall election for them. (Walker can not be recalled until at least January 2012, per state statute)

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    [ Parent ]
    this is fucking awesome
    8 recall petitions already?  Walker's is definitely next, and the unions can now spend freely on elections  :)   Rep. Ryan called Madison the new Cairo, damn right it is!  I loved reading my paper today in Minneapolis; it was front page with the rest of story immediately on A3.  Madison school districts including the suburb to the south of the city have had to close their schools because about 40% of their staff and faculty keep calling in sick so they can participate at the capitol.

    And just so everyone knows, MN has a DFL AG as well so the WI state senators are completely safe.


    [ Parent ]
    They're apparently in Rockford, Ill., actually...
    Where they are also completely safe.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    I've thought they only did a press conference there
    then split up.

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    If they split up and toured the country to campaign against unfair labor laws...
    That would be pretty epic. They'd be welcome in pretty much every state with a Democratic governor and attorney general.

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    The danger of being like Chris Christie?
    I don't know how he's doing in New Jersey with regards to his cuts and so on, but I imagine a lot of Republicans took a cue from him and started to act a lot more forceful than they otherwise would act--so forceful, in fact, that they are overreaching. I'm not sure Christie is smart enough to not do this, but he doesn't look like an idiot. Walker does.


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Christie has a Dem legislature
    If it were otherwise, the people of NJ would probably be at a near-riot level, as well.

    [ Parent ]
    I tought they went to Oklahoma?


    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    They did
    It was Oklahoma.

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    [ Parent ]
    IIRC
    One chamber of the TX legislature went to OK and one chamber went to NM.

    [ Parent ]
    I have a spare couch
    As long as they don't bring up the Packers one can crash with me.

    "Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    And With the Walker-Dayton relationship as icy as an Alberta Clipper, I don't see them being extradited.

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    [ Parent ]
    Dayton is selling his tax plan HORRIBLY
    Wisconsin is the only thing he needs to talk about.  MN and WI are essentially the exact same state with our differing metro area make-ups creating the different results statewide.  Same people, same culture; Dayton needs to use this and tell the state, would you rather tax the rich or would you rather be like Wisconsin?

    And when I read Walker was putting up road signs at the interstate borders saying open for business or some crap, well, this can be our big fuck you back.  (Along with you mentioning Walker/WI renegading on his/their tax debts to MN; fiscally responsible my ass.)


    [ Parent ]
    Hold on now

    The plan just came out on Tuesday.  The Wisconsin flustercluck just materialized in this way today.  I give Dayton more credit--he said at his presser that he didn't expect his proposal to be the final version, but that it is his statement of preference regarding the state budget.  

    But you're right, he needs to start hitting the airwaves, and a few radio ads from ABM wouldn't hurt either.  


    [ Parent ]
    flustercluck
    New favorite non-word.  

    [ Parent ]
    We should put up a sign

    on our side of the border: "Welcome.  Also, you owe us $60,000,000."


    [ Parent ]
    Oklahoma
    Henry refused to allow the Texas Rangers to retrieve them from a Holiday Inn in Ardmore (I actually stayed there once or twice)

    19, Male, libertarian Republican, TX-14 and MN-04

    [ Parent ]
    Another thing to note
    is that Perry sent the Texas Rangers after them, so that walkout was likely doomed from the start.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Too bad
    Walker doesn't have Texas Rangers

    (Sorry, I couldn't resist)

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    [ Parent ]
    Comment of the Week
    slow clap

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

    [ Parent ]
    Its funny the severity of the power grab
    I mean literally if you move about 10,000 voters in 2010 Wi state Sen elections from GOP to DEM across about 5 senate districts Dems would be int he majority.  

    Sadly these 10,000 votes were cast the other way and for 21 more months this will likely be the a very unproductive WI state Senate,.


    [ Parent ]
    it's called representative Democracy
    the people have a right to make their voices heard and protest but Republicans got elected and they control everything ... people need to vote next time.    

    [ Parent ]
    Right what I'm saying is
    that it was such a slim majority yet it looks bigger and more maningful than it is.  I can't really complain about the voting either, as it looks like most of the districts have about the same number of voters (quite a few districts voted 32,000-to-28,000 in one direction or the other.

    Sure I'd like to have avoided this, but I don't necessarily blame those who didn't vote more than those who voted for the wrong people....


    [ Parent ]
    Ugh
    This could go from bad to worse.

    Apparently you only need 3/5 of members for budgetary items, "regular business" can go on as normal.

    Looks like they might just strip out the CBA part and pass that as a stand alone provision, and to make matters worse that means they can pass voter id and god knows what else.

    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    would they do that?
    it makes short term tactical sense, but would create a potential loss in popularity and vulnerability for WI republicans.  aside from voter ID laws are there any other bills they can pass this way and really want to?

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    It certainly looks like they can pass the CBA repeal since anything that isn't a fiscal bill doesn't require 3/5 for a quarum. I'm sure there are tons of other things they can ramrod through, whether they could pass it with a full Senate or not is an interesting question...

    I could see some kind of "if you weren't off playing hookie on The People's time" or "while you were off playing hide-and-seek we were doing The People's Business"

    This kind of stuff makes me sick, both the walkout and trying to pass stuff via technicality. Something tells me this isn't what Madison (the architect of the Constitution, not the city) had in mind...

    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    everyone knows madison (The City)
    was a devout hugonaut.  

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    Any moderate, sensible Republicans who might break ranks?
    Anyone know if there are GOPers who might break ranks?  this could be insanely polarizing if both sides hold firm.

    Also, why is it every time Dems need to do this they are only 1 defector away from being powerless (i.e TX 2003).  I can't imagine the GOP hasn't already started crafting quite a package of perks and gifts to get one Dem to flip and come back, or switch parties permanently.


    [ Parent ]
    Interesting
    Article IV, Section 7 (Organization of legislature; quorum; compulsory attendance):

    "Each house shall be the judge of the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members; and a majority of each shall constitute a quorum to do business, but a smaller number may adjourn from day to day, and may compel the attendance of absent members in such manner and under such penalties as each house may provide."

    Do most states have this provision on compulsory attendance?

    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    I don't know for sure
    But I'd guess the answer is yes.  I'm sure walkouts were probably more of an issue in the past and certainly something people probably thought of.  

    [ Parent ]
    Really Nuclear Option
    As long as your planning dirty tricks why not go whole hog baby, by the sound of this they can, with a simple majority as quarum - compel attendance by doing all kinds of things, up to and includig expelling non-attending members?

    No way anyone would ever do this, but as long as they've decided to go it alone, maybe they want to just "play with themselves" as it were...

    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    NJ does...
    And the budget is always due at midnight on June 30th, and the Senators always threaten to leave and the Governor always threatens to send the State Police and pull them away from the 4th of July weekend at the Shore-- and a lot of times they'd both be from the same party.

    Well that is until Christie flipped some Dems and got basically everything he wanted from his budget last year.

    My favorite is they unplug the clock in the assembly chamber before midnight, as if that means they are still okay!


    [ Parent ]
    He didn't
    flip any Dems.  They arranged this to avoid a shutdown, which is bad PR for the legislaure.  If they drafted a compromise budget instead of handwringing about Christie's, this might have ended differently.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    The opposite happened today
    I don't have a link, but apparently one moderate Republican considered a "swing vote" now says he will support the legislation because of the Democrats' flight.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Except they already have the votes
    One swing vote wouldn't have made a difference.

    [ Parent ]
    Unless he was on record as being against it to begin with
    This is probably more publicity than a real happening.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh, of course it is
    He hadn't previously taken a public position on the bill. I was just using it as an example to answer your question about moderate Republicans possibly breaking ranks with Walker. They're not--they're sticking with their guy just like all 14 Dems are sticking together.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Little Help
    Anyone able to break this down for me?

    Wisconsin Contitution
    Article VIII, SECTION 8 (Vote on fiscal bills; quorum)

    "On the passage in either house of the legislature of any law which imposes, continues or renews a tax, or creates a debt or charge, or makes, continues or renews an appropriation of public or trust money, or releases, discharges or commutes a claim or demand of the state, the question shall be taken by yeas and nays, which shall be duly entered on the journal; and three-fifths of all the members elected to such house shall in all such cases be required to constitute a quorum therein."


    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    I will
    That means that anything, and absolutely everything that would cost or save the state government a penny requires 60% of senators present. Currently Republicans control the chamber 19-14. If a single Democrat were there, it would mean 20 senators are present, which would be the required 60%.

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    [ Parent ]
    It could be said
    that the CBA involves state revenue since it has to do with state employee wages.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    I don't disagree
    But I am not a constitutional lawyer.

    26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

    "A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


    [ Parent ]
    Key Question
    Then is how stringent the provision is (I asked below if this has ever been tested in court) on defining a fiscal bill.

    One side would clearly say anything that changes revenue etc qualifies, but the other side would say this only counts for bills that directly relate to revenue etc.

    This might be the real test - are there other bills, now law, that could be said to indirectly affect state revenue that were passed without a 3/5 quarum. My gut says no, but if there are then a ruling against at CBA repeal passed without a quarum would also invalide any other laws passed without a 3/5 quarum. It would be a legal nightmare and a step the courts would like to avoid if possible.

    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    Hmmm
    I'm trying to think how they would backdoor this anyway, I'm sure there are lots of other bills that may indirectly add or save the state money right? How solid is this and has it ever been tested in court?

    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    Of course, but did the voters have a clue they were proposing this?
    I know nothing about what the governor's race was like, but I wouldn't be surprised if Walker took the approach of campaigning on other issues and only slightly emphasizing this type of legislation. That's basically what the Republicans did in 2004, with their "John Kerry is a gigantic, Massachusetts pussy, and if elected, your children will be forced into gay marriages officiated by bin Laden. Also, TAX CUTS!!!!!!!!" approach, wherein after they were elected they tried to privatize Social Security.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    I don't think the voters had a clue, because they weren't paying attention
    Walker talked about taking the public employee unions, but I don't think the voters took him seriously or even listened.

    I hope this gets the Wisconsin electorate a little more involved next time.  


    [ Parent ]
    The poeple who voted knew, I'm sure
    I guess when people think of promises of smaller govt they don't really know what it means.  Most people's perceptions of what's in state budgets is off from what is really there.

    People always want lower taxes and more services, its hard to balance that.  So people voted for lower taxes and fewer services not realizing the first one to be affected would be education-related.


    [ Parent ]
    Meanwhile, protestors filled up the State Capitol.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    On the plus side
    This should motivate voters in WI something crazy in 2012, meaning Obama could carry WI with a 20+ point blowout allowing him to skip the state and focus on other states that are liekly to be closer.

    [ Parent ]
    This really is awesome
    This is putting the "movement" back into the labor movement for the first time in a long time.  Hopefully it will spread to other states dealing with this stuff.  Here in Indiana, there is real talk of the Republicans making us a Right to Work (for less) state.  What is going on in Wisconsin could really energize people here and elsewhere -- and that would work out well for Democrats.

    [ Parent ]
    Can you tell me more about what's going on in your state?


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Even though Indiana
    is a conservative state, it also has been a very unionized one -- especially the old manufacturing unions.  Now that Daniels is gov with both a Republican House and Senate (by very large margins), there is talk of passing right-to-work legislation.  I don't know if the R's are going to pull the trigger on it this year or not, as some seem to be a bit hesitant, but it is possible.

    [ Parent ]
    Do you get the vibe Daniels won't do it
    Does he have anything to gain by doing this?  Does he really want to...or is it being pushed by others?

    [ Parent ]
    Not sure
    There are real questions about how far to the right Daniels is going to go, and how that's going to be impacted by whether or not he runs for President.

    [ Parent ]
    I'd bet he goes with it
    Daniels is no friend to organized labor to begin with, and in terms of national ambitions, he'd be boosting his credentials with the kind of people that are most likely to support him anyways (corporate interests and the very rich).  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    Really?
    Daniel's has always struck me as too low key for that kind of gamesmanship. Remember he's the one who told his own legislative majorities he would veto an egregious gerrymander (of course what qualifies as egregious!) I don't think this is ideological, but temperamental. He wants to be seen as a moderate, reasonable and conciliatory figure...

    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    [ Parent ]
    This was my thinking and why I asked
    I know he's a corporate guy, I guess I just question how much more pro-corporations does Indiana need to be and does he want to be the one to lead Indiana there.

    We shall see.


    [ Parent ]
    I think the "moderate" that Daniels wants to be seen as
    is a pro-business, ignore-the-social-issues kind of moderate who is generally conservative on economic issues but also realistic (i.e. sometimes you need to raise taxes to balance the budget). It seems "right-to-work" could fit into that kind of framing.  

    Male, VA-08

    [ Parent ]
    That's not irreconcilable with right to work
    He doesn't have to be a bomb thrower about it, heck, he doesn't even have to do much about it. He can just wait 'til the General Assembly puts it on his desk, say something about making it easier for businesses to stay afloat in troubled economic times by not having to accommodate HORRIBLY EXCESSIVE union demands (or something), and sign it. He still looks and sounds the part of the problem-solving technocrat.

    This kind of thing isn't really a potentially dangerous bit of legislation like the gay marriage ban that the Assembly just passed; it's much harder to look like a dispassionate, reasonable leader when you're talking about a social issue as opposed to something that can be framed as just a business problem.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


    [ Parent ]
    I don't think he wants this kind of WI scene...
    ...at the capitol distracting from his run.  There are a lot of union republicans in his state, remember.

    The article I read from yesterday that said that the bills don't look like they will even make it to committee, and they have only 2 weeks left to pass them.


    [ Parent ]
    Anything more specific?
    It seems like Indiana would be the more likely state to do it. Republicans aren't a rare species in Wisconsin, but they aren't as popular as they are in Indiana.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    WI State Senator speaks from undisclosed location.
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    He believes all 14 Dem Senators are now out of state.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    just read that WI passed a tax cut
    already this legislative session.  Give me a break.

    [ Parent ]
    Give you a break?
    Maybe. How much money are you making?

    20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

    [ Parent ]
    I'm sure this
    Will go over very well with the people who pay them to, you know, SHOW UP to work.  

    [ Parent ]
    Same as a Filibuster in the US Senate
    60% or nothing gets done.

    "Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

    [ Parent ]
    and the filibuster can block every type of legislation
    They're only holding the budget hostage as compared to everything.

    [ Parent ]
    honestly
    elections have consequences.  i completely disapprove of the dems for doing this

    18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

    [ Parent ]
    They're simply doing what
    the rules allow them to do. The same way the Republicans used the Filibuster non stop.

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    I think that's a misinterpretation of "elections have consequences"
    When you have a majority that is being grossly unfair, then the minority has the obligation to act accordingly.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    if you vote for republicans
    expect them to act like republicans. i'm on the gop's side here. i'd vote against the bill, but i wouldn't leave the state.

    18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

    [ Parent ]
    It's not as if it's illegal
    As someone mentioned before, Republicans in the US Senate continuously have used the filibuster, I see no problem with these Democrats using a procedural maneuver to stop bad legislation.  

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm torn
    I can't fault them for pushing the envelope, they never do, but at the same time, elections do have consequences, especially when you don't vote. This is proof of that. You can't sit around in November and then expect Democrats to go to crazy lengths to protect you. I just don't think this will end up looking good for Democrats. Independents and moderate Dems are from the "I approve of your stances, but don't approve of your tactics" point of view. I can see them being disgusted and fingering the Dems as uncompromising, even if they don't agree with Walker.

    Besides, it'll be entertaining to see the reaction on the left when this blows up in the Democrats' faces.  


    [ Parent ]
    I'm torn
    I can't fault them for pushing the envelope, they never do, but at the same time, elections do have consequences, especially when you don't vote. This is proof of that. You can't sit around in November and then expect Democrats to go to crazy lengths to protect you. I just don't think this will end up looking good for Democrats. Independents and moderate Dems are from the "I approve of your stances, but don't approve of your tactics" point of view. I can see them being disgusted and fingering the Dems as uncompromising, even if they don't agree with Walker.

    Besides, it'll be entertaining to see the reaction on the left when this blows up in the Democrats' faces.  


    [ Parent ]
    I have to say.
    How exactly would watching thousands of workers lose their collective bargaining rights be entertaining?

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    That wouldn't be entertaining
    but it's gonna happen regardless. What would be entertaining is trying to watch the Chris Bowers' of the world explain why this became a political liability for Democrats.


    [ Parent ]
    Where's the compromise?
    As far as I know, the issue isn't with the cuts to pensions or anything else, but with the right to work stuff. It's been hinted that the Democrats were ready to accept the cuts but not the union busting part of the bill. And why should they? If this was put in at the last minute and the Republicans tried to cram it through, how is that fair? And what can they compromise over? I'll admit ignorance over this stuff, but it seems like an all or nothing deal, not the sort of thing where they can quibble over a tax rate or a benefit change.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    To independent voters
    compromise is shutting up and doing whatever Republicans want.

    But even then, lets say the Republicans give in on collective bargaining and still cut jobs, which is probably what will happen, do you really think some of the pouty liberals are going to say "excellent job guys," they're still going to complain teachers lost their jobs, and indys are still going to be pissed Democrats did what they did.

    I've seen this play before, the ending is always the same.  


    [ Parent ]
    Not all Independent
    voters are the same.

    Once again, the issue isn't the job cuts or anything like that. From what I can tell, the unions accepted such measures. Liberals might not be happy about it, but considering that the alternative here is apparently cuts plus the removal of collective bargaining rights, cuts by themselves is a victory of sorts. I imagine the people in Wisconsin will be happy with this, which is what's most important. Assuming this doesn't drag on for a long time, in a month or two, nobody outside the state will really remember, except for partisans who are already firmly on one side or the other.

    And where have you seen this play before?  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


    [ Parent ]
    Not all Democrats vote the same either
    a good 10-12% vote Republican regularly. My point was Independents as a bloc act like that

    Assuming this doesn't drag on for a long time, in a month or two, nobody outside the state will really remember, except for partisans who are already firmly on one side or the other.

    so then why wouldn't Republicans let this go on another month or two and paint the Democrats as being unreasonable? Why does anyone think independents and moderate Dems are going to swoon over their Senators hiding in Illinois to defend unions?  


    [ Parent ]
    Because unions are supposedly a big deal in
    Wisconsin, which is where how this plays matters most of all, and Democrats in general are tired of their legislators acting like gigantic pussies. Perhaps they won't throw a parade, or perhaps it will backfire on them, but for now, it is probably helping them far more than it's hurting them.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    I don't believe Democrats in general
    are tired of their legislators acting like gigantic pussies, unless by gigantic pussies you mean not standing up to "crazy liberals," because that's just as much the opinion among Democrats where I am as "they won't stand up for progressive values," probably even more so.


    [ Parent ]
    You didn't seem to mind...
    ....when tea partiers were filing up the capital in protest...

    [ Parent ]
    I have no problem with protest
    That is our right as American. I do, however, have a problem with people who are payed by tax payers fleeing the state to avoid doing their job. It is not comparable to the filibuster, because when a bill is filibustered, the Senators are still showing up and doing what we pay them to do. The tax payers of WI are not paying state senators to flee the state when they disagree with something.  

    [ Parent ]
    The constituents agree with them.
    I guess that is all that really matters.

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    I don't see the difference myself
    Most bills that are filibustered have the votes to pass. It is just another exploitation of the system to block something. You make it sound like they a pulling a sickie rather than acting out of principle.

    [ Parent ]
    Speaking of filibuster
    Why can't they fillibuster this item?  If they have 14 of 33, they could definitely filibuster if 60% were required like the US Senate.  

    If the WI state Senate doesn't have the filibuster option, then what they are doing is precisely the same as a filibuster.  Showing up to block a bill and not showing up to block a bill have the same impact.


    [ Parent ]
    Actually they're not
    that's the problem. During the filibusters, senators don't even need to be in Washington

    [ Parent ]
    With all due respect, you're a hypocrite, GOPVOTER
    As far as I'm concerned, they ARE doing their job... which is to stop Republicans from doing dumbass crap like stripping away collective bargaining rights for workers.

    And as for Mitch "Turtle" McConnell and Senate Republicans, how exactly is voting to delay voting and then going to pick up check from lobbyists and not actually filibuster (aka-debate)--how exactly is that doing their job? This is the exact same thing by a different means.

    So in conclusion, I believe you are being a giant fucking hypocrite and the last vestiges of respect I maintained for you (despite the fact that you voted for David "Diaper" Vitter over a decent man like Charlie Melancon) are slipping away rapidly.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    Limiting corporations or initial public offerings
    Imagine the Democrats won control in a wave election of both the legislature and the governor's mansion and then tried to pass some sort of legislation that limited what corporations could do or limited initial public offerings or something. If the Republicans fled the state to stop this, they'd be hailed as heroes from all quarters.

    The more I read about this, the more it stinks. He purposely creates a budget problem and then uses it to destroy union organizing when he never mentioned it during the campaign? Maybe he should be recalled.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


    [ Parent ]
    They are paid to show up
    What you are paid to do is your job. If they are paid to show up and they do not, they are not doing their jobs.  

    [ Parent ]
    I think they should go back
    But the fact you refuse to accept the similarity to a filibuster is pure spin.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually
    they are doing their jobs. They probably think their constituents oppose the bill (I'd bet money they do) so they will do anything to stop it. I can't say I'm big on this but yeah I think it will go over well for dems. I'd assume this was not a big part of the gubernatorial campaign when Walker got elected so I am willing to bet anything that Walker pays a very big price politically for this. I'll put it this way, he either benefits greatly from this or is a guaranteed one termer.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Or half a term.


    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    Not a part of the campaign.
    I just watched a little of "Parker/Spitzer" where some political journalist/Nation contributor from the state said Walker did not mention this at all during the campaign.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    Reminds me of VA-Gov
    And McDonnell's African-American endorsements. "I'm shocked, shocked I say that the governor is not the different kind of Republican I was led to believe."

    [ Parent ]
    Reminds me of VA-Gov
    And McDonnell's African-American endorsements. "I'm shocked, shocked I say that the governor is not the different kind of Republican I was led to believe."

    [ Parent ]
    If that's true, and they go through with this,
    I wonder what happens. The guy I referred to above said two moderate Republicans in the legislature proposed a compromise that would have kept in place the cuts but taken out the right to work stuff. Perhaps that will be the end result, but if not, I could see this ending very badly for Walker.  

    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    A funny little fact.
    The father of the State Senate Leader and Assembly Speaker is the new head of the State Patrol.

    19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    [ Parent ]
    Obama just won
    Wisconsin in '12. It's over.

    [ Parent ]
    Probably won't have to worry about an enthusiasm gap there, will we?
    Since, I presume, even if Walker is recalled in a year, he'll probably do a lot more obnoxious stuff that Wisconsin voters will be suspicious of.... and then the recall election will gt people fired up, too, and then the general election is soon after that...  constant voter stimulation.

    Speaking of, I guess there is a state assembly special election coming up:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/...


    [ Parent ]
    Wisconsin presumably has
    big civic engagement, like Minnesota. And I have little doubt that the Milwaukee base will turn out for Obama.

    To be honest, the prospect that Walker may win public support for this endeavor is not zero. That worries me.    


    [ Parent ]
    Why do you think he will win over the public?


    "I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

    [ Parent ]
    There's some recent polling floating around
    showing that people are readily willing to take the hatchet to public employees if it seems necessary.  

    [ Parent ]
    The issue isn't the cuts...
    ...and every protester interviewee makes that clear, it's the removal of collective bargaining rights for absolutely no reason.  That's what's causing the protests.  The union workers have make it clear they'll take cuts, but they haven't even gotten a chance to negotiate, which is another reason why Walker is looking bad 'cos he never bothered to negotiate at all.

    Also, this is Wisconsin, home of the labor movement.  Unions are big here and well regarded (as much or even more so than in Michigan).  A national poll would not be reflective of this state as a whole.

    Pew came out with a poll today and even with the economy sucking and union favorability at an all time low, they still have positive favorability as a whole, public unions even MORE SO than private ones, believe it or not.

    So, if the attitudes turn, it won't be because of that.  Heck, even the Archbishop came out for the workers today, and WI has got a lot of progressive catholics.


    [ Parent ]
    Seems unlikely...
    The protesters are well behaved and the numbers are growing.  Anecdotal reports from even conservative areas did not approve of how he initially handled this so far.  Remember that unions are everywhere in WI, and everyone knows someone in a union.  There is a poll out from some liberal group where Wisconsonites do not approve of Walker's measure by 2:1.  It's like health care reform, when you have lots of people yelling and making a fuss, people figure that there must be something wrong with the product.

    Since Walker is doing nothing to defuse the situation or addressing the legitimate concerns of the public on a rush/rush bill that would have very significant effects, he's not the one looking good here... at least not to Wisconsinites.  Nationally, it probably plays differently in different areas, but where it counts, the protesters are winning the PR war at the moment.


    [ Parent ]
    I can see where you are coming from on this...
    ...especially with the teachers missing school and the tide could change, but one thing the governor hasn't done is specify WHY the unions can't collectively bargain?  We know the real reason... to kill the union, but he has to give a fake reason, and he hasn't, which is why he's coming off so badly.

    [ Parent ]
    That's really rather surprising
    I could give that press conference with about a half-hour's preparation.  

    [ Parent ]
    FL Redistricting
    The Fix' Aaron Blake uses an amazing number of words to basically say nothing.

    http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    It's like the old SNL Father Guido Valduche weather man bit "And the temperature could go up or down tomorrow, depending on the weather..."

    "Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
    P. J. O'Rourke


    Betty McCollum (D-MN) gets a threatening fax.
    She suggested the Pentagon stop sponsoring NASCAR in order to save money and she got this.
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    One striking aspect of it is that it was almost exactly the same as a threatening fax received by State Sen. Leland Yee (D-CA).
    http://dist08.casen.govoffice....

    Who the hell is making these?!

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    Rethug fax aside, dumb stunt by McCollum......
    Trivial amount of money, with no politic benefit otherwise, and a possible minor political cost.

    Stay.  On. Message.

    And "message" right now is Republicans sacrificing jobs in favor of adventurism on abortion rights and hurting the most vulnerable in society with spending cuts that are trivial in budget.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Ted Kennedy Jr.
    Seems like he's waiting for Rosa DeLauro (she's pushing 70) to retire. If the Dems win the Senate race (hopefully it's Chris Murphy), I don't see another Senate opening for at least 15 years when Blumenthal will hang it up, so the House may be his best bet (I don't see him entering state gov't).

    He and his family have been based in the New Haven burbs for years, so CT-03 seems like his best bet, and the party could probably clear the field if they wanted to, especially if he gets Rosa's blessing.

    25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


    Cool, the Sunlight Foundation is our current Premium Sponsor.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!