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Wednesday Open Thread

by: DavidNYC

Wed Feb 16, 2011 at 1:45 PM EST


Don't worry - the daily digest isn't going anywhere. We're just switching to a morning publishing schedule, so we had to skip today to get us in sync. A piping-fresh DD will be ready for your breakfast consumption tomorrow. In the meantime, you can use this as an open thread for all your heart's (electoral) desires.
DavidNYC :: Wednesday Open Thread
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Wednesday Open Thread | 234 comments
It's Time for People to Quit Talking About "The South"
Electorally, at least for presidential elections, let's bury the idea that the states of the Confederacy are a bloc. Florida and Texas are both unique, and VA and NC are more and more like Colorado while WV--created in reaction against the Confederacy--and KY are more like TN, northern AL and MS, AR, OK and Missouri than they are like the coastal states south of Maryland.
Bold way to start us off today, Dana
What makes this question even less clear cut and more fun is that within many of these "non-Southern Southern states" there are still large Southern elements.  When you look at the states that no longer vote "Southern" at a statewide level, they all have booming metro centers attracting many yuppy whites who will vote for Democrats.  But once you leave these metros, it's the typical South, with TX being the exception with having heavily Hispanic rural areas, as well.

My overall point is that even while many of these states aren't politically Southern at a statewide level, what makes me personally classify them as Southern is that the ones who are native Southerners haven't changed at all; it's the people moving into the urban centers.  And WV and KY absolutely get thrown in there from now on as they vote like Southern states, have the former Dem dominance of a Dem state, and have the demographics of Southern states.

[ Parent ]
Which Southern states aren't voting "Southern" at the satte level
last election I looked it seemed Southern states were actually voting more Southern than ever, I mean the GOP inroads int he South the last 15 years have been quite amazing.

I think the real nomenclature should be the South vs the un-penetrated South.  The southern states with the larger foreign immigration and northern migration are obviously going to skew more towards the ideals/voting patterns of the new inhabitants.  

[ Parent ]
here's my definition
the south is the confederacy minus south florida and nova (both on the periphery, s florida is completely different culturally, and nova is in the dc metro area)
i'd then add s. missouri (slave-owning back in the day, culturally southern) and kentucky/w.va which were in the union.

i still think that all qualifies as south.  politically, the only white democrats in this region are:
gene green and steve cohen in maj-min districts
kathy castor--tampa
david price/brad miller--research triangle
lloyd doggett--austin
ben chandler/heath shuler/mike mcintyre/mike ross/larry kissell/john barrow/jim cooper/dan boren/nick rahall--blue dogs

i think that's a fair assessment of the south, politically and geographically

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Fun Game
Ok, so let's try the North Carolina Senate.  The remaining white Democrats are...

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/GI...

1. Stan White, District 1, Northeastern Shore region.
2. Eleanor Kinnaird, District 23, Orange County, so Triangle.
3. William Purcell, District 25, in Kissell's district.
4. Daniel Clodfelter, District 37, Charlotte or therebouts.
5. Linda Garrou, District 32, Winston-Salem, Majority-Minority.
6. Clark Jenkins, District 3, right next to District 1, he's a farmer, so probably pretty rural?  Majority-Minority, though.
7. Martin L. Nesbitt, Jr, District 49, Asheville.  
8. Bob Atwater, District 8, Chatham County (though his office is in Chapel Hill?), anyway, Triangle.
9. Doug Berger, District 7, only 56% white, part of it's in the generally-accepted Triangle area, and the rest sometimes is, per Wiki.  
10. Don Vaughn, District 27, Greensboro.
11. Josh Stein, District 16.  Raleigh.  
12. Michael P. Walters, District 13.  Majority-Minority due to being about 1/3 black, 1/3 white, and 1/3 American Indian.  North Carolina, per the Wiki, "has the largest American Indian population of any state on the East Coast", which I did not know.  

So really, the only ones in majority-white, non-urban, non-Triangle areas are White, Purcell, and maybe Berger depending on what the Triangle actually is.  I am no NC expert.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Atwater's in 18, not 8
and his district hugs Chapel Hill.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
I also now notice they have a map
http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/GI...

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Except if you count WV as part of the South.
Although that might not be the case since WV broke up from VA because they were anti-secession.

And yes, although WV has become Republican at the Prez level, the Democratic party there is impressively strong.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
I would argue that any region has areas like that
For example, the "West Coast". As a native of SoCal, I can say that the political and cultural differences between Southern California and Oregon are pretty large, possibly as large as the differences between, say, Tennessee and South Carolina. To take an even more extreme example, if we count the entire state of Washington as being "West Coast", that puts my father's home town of Spokane, WA in the same region as my home city of Los Angeles, CA, when anyone who has been to both places can tell you that they are extremely different. It's not necessarily just the South that encompasses many, many different areas. Any mega-regions like the South or the West Coast will necessarily be very diverse and expansive, politically, culturally, linguistically, and otherwise.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Great point
I have met very few Portlanders who have a terribly high opinion of Los Angeles, it's true. And the differences between even the different sides of the Pacific Northwest (the Cascades functioning as a handy divider), or between coastal SoCal and the Inland Empire, etc., are massive in and of themselves.

Regions always, always have subregions. Hell, just look across the pond to Belfast and the differences between Falls and Shankill roads - two streets that run virtually parallel - and you get a sense of just how finely you can break a place down.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
With apologies to the angeleno fans here
"you mean lousy angeles?" how can anyone survive in a place where the only way you get green grass is with paint? ;)
[ Parent ]
Except the poorest areas, LA has a LOT more green grass than most places
Everybody has sprinklers.
[ Parent ]
MN-House
District 5B: Carly Melin won the special election last night, and will replace former Majority leader Tony Sertich in that chamber.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

You may have already answered this but...
What impact do you think Sertich's move to the IRRRB have on the possibility of him running in MN-08? I seem to remember a few people mentioning him as a potential candidate, but that seems decidedly non-candidatey to me.
[ Parent ]
Let's talk about TN-Sen
This seems like a GREAT pickup opportunity, and Bredesen looks like a great candidate.  What are the odds of him getting in the race?  From what I gather, Corker isn't damaged as much as Bredesen is mega popular, so I am going to guess a tea party won't change they race dynamics much.

I mean hell, he got by the largest margin in Tennessee history back in 2006.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Hank Williams Jr.
He is alright running to Corker's right, which could soften him up in the general, especially if he decides to teabag Corker in a three-way after he gets crushed in the primary.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
State versus federal
Often very different. But the PPP poll is encouraging nonetheless. Frankly, it would be worth it just to give the GOP a headache. Interestingly, if Bredesen were to run where would he place in the caucus? Ben Nelson and Joe Manchin or more Mary Landrieu and Mark Pryor?
[ Parent ]
I think he'd probably be in the Manchin range
Just a gut feeling, though. Progressives probably wouldn't like him much, heh...  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
More Nelson-Manchin
I suspect Manchin will be OK on labor issues, but on cultural issues, Landrieu actually isn't all that bad, and Pryor doesn't demagogue. Someone w better knowledge can correct me if I'm wrong, but I suspect Bredesen would be more culturally conservative and would occasionally complain about the Democrats, which Pryor and Landrieu don't often do.  
[ Parent ]
Wikipedia doesn't make him sound too bad
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...

Not sure how the health care stuff would play mind you.  

[ Parent ]
have you seen Religulous?

[ Parent ]
The four senators you mentioned
I wouldn't really bloc any of them together. Pryor is quite liberal by Arkansas standards, except for social issues. Landrieu is a moderate on most issues, but to the left of Pryor on social issues. Ben Nelson is not really all that conservative of a Democrat, especially compared to the other Nelson in the senate. And Manchin seems to be a pretty standard coal-union-Appalachian Democrat. I would say Bredeson would be more comparable to other, former Southern Democrat senators, ala Max Cleland.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Der
I mistyped about Ben Nelson, but the point is essentially the same

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Huh?
Ben Nelson is not really all that conservative of a Democrat, especially compared to the other Nelson in the senate.

Are you mixing up Ben and Bill? Because Ben is most definitely one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate.  

[ Parent ]
He is THE most conservative Democrat in the Senate

[ Parent ]
See above
And yes, that is what I did. Damn me for not proofreading!

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Not these guys then
[ Parent ]
Sure
I was just thinking along the lines of how often they vote with the Republicans.
[ Parent ]
Corker is vulnerable to a primary challenge
Plurality of GOP in TN wants to replace him with someone more conservative, favorables aren't particularly high.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

[ Parent ]
He strikes me as a practical moderate to liberal dem in a conservative state
Conservative dems don't build 32 new schools and renovated 43 others as mayor of Nashville, and certainly doesn't expand the states healthcare coverage by "providing access to affordable health care for severely ill Tennesseans who have been denied health insurance, for uninsured children and for uninsured working adults."

He also has done a lot of charity work from what I can see.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Corker is moderate enough to get teabagged
He's good friends with Warner. Not sure who would challenge him though.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
makes the GOP spend money

[ Parent ]
There
were some serious rumors that he was going to switch parties last year. I'd say he'd be up in Manchin-Nelson territory.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
That's
not to say I wouldn't want him, I would.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
That being said...
He took a very progressive stance on education and teacher salaries during his time as governor.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Really? Why would he switch parties after he left office?
I hadn't heard that about Bresden. In fact, in the link below, where he says he won't seek elective office, he says that as unhappy as he is with Democrats, he's even more annoyed with Republicans.

Or were you referring to Manchin and/or Ben Nelson?

http://www.wrcbtv.com/Global/s...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Athough
he says he is inclined against running for office again, he says "never say never".

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm
talking about Brendeson switching parties. I got a link. Obviously it didn't come about but I remember hearing tons of buzz and it took at least a couple of days for him to deny anything. I'm not saying I wouldn't want him to run, I do. I'm just saying he will be moderate to conservative. He is from Tennessee, so of course he will. The article you give confirms that.  

http://blogs.knoxnews.com/hump...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
He's not on the record for a lot of positions, and
it's hard to decipher specific positions from what he's done. He seems open to expanding education spending and federal health care spending. He's for the death penalty and very pro gun, but is he pro choice?

I'm actually more interested in his position on taxes. He wasn't high on an income tax for his state, but would he open to some tax increases at the federal level?

He'd certainly be in the more conservative half of the caucus, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Even if he's far more conservative than I'd like, he's probably bound to be better than Corker, even if Corker is a reasonable Republican.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Bredesen
Have there been any rumors about Murray talking to him?  Is this even a possibility or this a pipe dream?

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
After looking at these polls
I'm sure Murray at least called him.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Put it this way
More likely than Freudenthal or Henry running. Whatever that might be worth.
[ Parent ]
Weld vs. Kerry, 1996
I'm going to play skeptic on this poll. I think it overstates how much strength Bredesen would have against Corker if he ran. The problem is, in a presidential election year, Tennessee Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are going to turn out in force. Tennessee is too conservative a state for it not to be an effective argument for Corker to tie Bredesen to Obama, and without any sort of scandal shadowing Corker, I don't see how even Bredesen pulls it off. I know Bredesen did very well in 2006, and does well in this poll now, but increasingly it seems like voters are voting nationally rather than locally.

It's the same reason why I'm skeptical Dems will do well in Texas, and why I'd be skeptical if anyone suggested that Connecticut was vulnerable to a Republican win, even if Jodi Rell ran.

That's why I think in the end, Bredesen doesn't pull the trigger on a run.  

[ Parent ]
Do you have this same sentiment regarding MA-Sen?
Because I know a lot of people think we won't get MA-Sen back, yet somehow we are DOOMED in red states where we would have good competitors.

How everyone soon forgets, Corker almost lost in 2006 to Harold Ford Jr.  I don't think presidential election years are the death knell for democrats in traditionally red states that you think it is for two reasons.

1. Who votes in midterms and who votes in presidential elections?  As we saw in 2010, it was an older and more conservative electorate, with less people voting than in the recent presidential year.  

Contrast this with 2008, where a lot of young voters and minorities came out.  You don't get those groups to come out in droves unless it's a presidential year, when there is traditionally much higher turn out.

2. Alaska in 2008.  It's a bad example because Stevens was a convicted felon, but, states don't get much redder than AK, and if even they could elect someone who was Gasp an ok favorability wise democrat against a republican with VERY low favorability.  The same can be applied to TN, and ok approval wise senator could lose to a candidate with sky high approval ratings (Bredesen)

If Bredesen gets in the race, I think it will easily be a toss up.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
The difference is Scott Brown's approval rating

[ Parent ]
Actually I do think Dems are going to win MA-Senate in 2012
I've said this in several other comments. And while your first point is true, it still doesn't show that even a very popular former governor can win a federal race against a somewhat popular current Senator.

Your second point, I say to you respectfully, is a bad example. I'll tell you why I don't think your point works - a Senator with low favorability like Stevens, whom a majority thought at the time was a crook, isn't going to command any sort of majority support. A Senator like Corker probably will, especially when the majority of voters in the Tennessee are going to go against Obama. Stevens gave people a reason to vote against him (i.e. he was a crook). Corker, so far, hasn't.

Other than Alaska, can you (or anyone else) cite an example from the past 20 years where a non-scandal plagued incumbent lost to another candidate in a Presidential year when his state voted for the same party he (or she) was from? I don't think there has been such as example, at least in my memory.

[ Parent ]
I looked at that in a couple posts
[ Parent ]
Thanks conspiracy
Good posts, both.  
[ Parent ]
Missouri, 2000
John Ashcroft lost to a dead guy.

South Dakota, 1996: Tim Johnson (D) beat Larry Pressler in the only democratic pickup that election cycle.

1988:

Bob Kerry in Nebraska (actually, pretty good comparison to Bredesen)

Richard Bryan in Nevada (pop gov beat incumbent)

Hope that brightens your outlook.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
My answers
2000 - Ashcroft. Dead guy. I should have specified live. I don't think this counts, unless we expect Bredesen to die during the campaign.

1996 - Tim Johnson. Okay, you got me here. I'll grant you this one is a pretty good example. But here's an interesting thing I bet you didn't know - Dole only won this state by three points over Clinton 46-43. I'm guessing Obama might lose Tennessee by a lot more (although he might not, if someone like Palin is the candidate).

1988 - this is why I specified the last 20 years. I think split ticketing was more common 20 years ago than it is now. Also, Kerry was running against an appointed Senator who had only been in office for a year and a half, so I don't think he's exactly analogous. Bryan is a good example, I suppose.

Anyway, to your point, it's not impossible. To my point (and Conspiracy makes this point in a couple of the post he references), it's becoming more and more unlikely.  

[ Parent ]
Granted
But I would still like to try. The Republicans would. Hell, they are talking about Rhode Island for goodness sake!
[ Parent ]
True enough
I guess I would favor trying, but I think we need to be realistic about our chances here. If Republicans want to waste money in Rhode Island, more power to them.

I was reacting to the idea this was a great pick up opportunity with Bredesen in the race. I don't see it that way, and I bet he doesn't either. But we'll see - it would be fun to see him win, so I hope I'm wrong. (I always hope I'm wrong when I have to play skeptic about Dem chances).  

[ Parent ]
One other point about Pressler
While he wasn't scandal-ridden, I vaguely remember he was known as "Larry Press Release" and had been named one of the five worst Senators by some publication. I'm not sure how popular he actually was when he lost.  
[ Parent ]
One other point...
If Obama does keep things to within five points in Tennessee, that's when I think you might be right about Corker losing (that's when the Tim Johnson example comes into play).

But if Obama loses the state by 10 (an improvement on 2008 totals) it's hard for me to see how Corker loses against anyone who runs against him.  

[ Parent ]
Georgia 1992
Paul Coverdell (R) unseated Sen. Wyche Fowler (D) who as far as I can tell, had no major scandals surrounding him, even as Bill Clinton won the state.  That said, Clinton did only win it by 0.6% that year, in large part due to Ross Perot's contributions (Clinton would lose Georgia to Bob Dole in 1996).  So maybe a bad example.

Going back a bit more than 20 years, in 1984 Mondale got waxed by Reagan but Dems still managed to knock off non-scandal-plagued incumbents in Illinois and Iowa.  Iowa at the time actually was pretty friendly to Democrats though, but Illinois was a swing state then.

One interesting thing I've noticed going back through the past 20 years of Senate elections, is that most of the Democratic gains have come from Republican incumbents, while most of the Republican gains have come from open Dem seats.  Odd.

[ Parent ]
Fowler's loss was a weird case
He outpolled Coverdell on Election Day, but it was a hair under 50%, which triggers a runoff in Georgia. In the subsequent, low-turnout runoff, he lost to Coverdell.  
[ Parent ]
"increasingly it seems like voters are voting nationally rather than locally."
We really only have had 2 federal elections since Bredensen won in 2006, and both were huge wave elections so i don't think that we have enough eveidence to say "increasingly it seems like voters are voting nationally rather than locally".

I'm also not sure how Bredensen could be tied to Obama in any serious way.  I think it's a race that more closely mimics the way repubs always contest NJ, get within a few points and then lose by about 8-12 most of the time.  I think your comparisons to TX and CT are maybe more at the political extreme than TN really is.  

[ Parent ]
Tennesee seems pretty darned conservative these days.
Obama lost the state by 15 points. That's more than he lost Texas by.  
[ Parent ]
Actually, no...
Look at 2004 or 2002 or 2000. See my comment above. I challenge you to find one election in the past 20 years where a non-scandal ridden incumbent lost to a non-incumbent when his party won the state at the presidential level.

Just doesn't happen. Maybe this will be the exception.  

[ Parent ]
Tennessee Voters
At least with Obama on the ballot TN can expect a larger than normal turnout in Memphis; might blunt the expected high turnout of the tea baggers, if the tea baggers even show up to vote for Corker, who isn't really tea bag material.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
I think Obama would kill him
Tennessee, despite Memphis and Nashville both swinging very D, was one of only 5 states that Obama did worse than Kerry in, which shows that the President is DOA in the rural parts of the state, even in the parts of Middle and West TN that are historically Democratic. Breseden would be a very strong candidate against Corker, but I would like his odds much better in a midterm year than in 2012, when he would have to run on the same ticket as Obama.

I think the same logic applies to MA-Sen. If Palin or Gingrich is the nominee, that's a death sentence for Brown. If it's Romney or Daniels, he'll at least have a fighting chance. (I've given up trying to classify Huckabee.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
They would vote for the candidate, not the party.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
But would he really do worse than last time?
I guess anything's possible, but like I suggested below, he didn't really contest the state in 2008. If he manages to improve by just a few points in some of the places where he got killed last time as he drives up turnout in the Democratic areas, he'd have to do better. I'm pretty sure Bresden outperforms Obama--not by 15, but perhaps by five. If Obama increases to at least 45 percent, Bresden could easily win.

Bear in mind that I am not talking about anything extreme. If he had added between two and three points to Eastern Tennessee counties of Knox, Sullivan, Washington, and Hawkins in 2008, he'd have have earned an additional 10,000 to 15,000 votes. A minimally competent ground game could bring 28 percent of the vote up to 31 or 32, no?



"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Bresden would probably easily outperform Obama.
The question is, what sort of base would Obama give him? He actually managed to do slightly worse, percentage wise, than Kerry did in 2004. He received more votes than Kerry did, but McCain somehow received almost 100,000 more votes than Bush did. I'm not sure I see Obama dipping below 40 in this state. I guess his base is around 40 or 42.

If Bresden is still very popular with the state, what sort of increase does that equal? Two points? Five points? I don't think he's popular enough to outperform Obama by ten to 15 points, but five seems reasonable. If Obama gets 41 and Bresden gets 46 percent, that's sort of close to a win for Bresden. Perhaps he can outperform Obama by more than I think, but perhaps Obama can significantly improve on his 2008 numbers, getting to 45 percent or even 46 or 47 percent, Bresden should certainly be able to pull out a win. Can Obama get to that number? He did spend a little money in the state, although I am not clear if that's from the primary or if it was in the general. He certainly didn't contest the state like he did Georgia, let alone Virginia, Colorado, or Ohio. An additional 100,000 votes in 2008 would have brought him to about 44.5 percent.

Can he convert some voters? Can he bring some new ones into the process? I'd think so, if only because he probably has some room to grow. He probably won't win the state unless really cleans up, possibly against a candidate like Palin, but he can ge closer. And if that means giving a stronger base to a competitive Democrat like Bresden, it's almost certainly worth trying to contest the state.

One thing's for damn sure: I'm very interested to see the PPP numbers from Tennessee tomorrow.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Bredesen
He's gonna be 69 in 2012. Not happening.  
[ Parent ]
Although Mike Castle ran for Senate at age 70
Admittedly, that was for a seat I think he thought was a "gimme"  
[ Parent ]
4 year term
For what was supposed to be a gimme. This would be a full 6 year term against a relatively popular incumbent.  
[ Parent ]
You don't think he would have run again
Had he won? I bet he would. Still, I agree Bredesen is unlikely but he would sure be worth the effort.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
You wish!
[ Parent ]
I'm beginning to think he's in already
And is just getting his ducks in a row.  If he wants more public service I can't think of what else there is for him?  And i don't think he's too old.  I mean we elect senior citizens all the time to the Senate, who cares about seniority.  He could very well serve 3-4 terms, people live forever these days/

Unless he's looking for something else maybe?  I just don't know what the role would be...unless he wants something weird like to be on the board of the TVA or something.

[ Parent ]
I think that
poll that we all saw might just put a spring in his step.
[ Parent ]
It'll be interesting to see how Bredesen and his people respond to this
I know then-Gov. Bredesen suggested he'd like to continue in public service in one of his exit interviews; he may have been thinking more along the lines of an administration job, but this is a guy who knows what it's like to win a big race with style, and if Sen. Murray pitches it well, I think she may be able to hook him.

I can't find that he or anyone close to him has responded publicly to this poll, nor any public indication Murray is talking with his people. But I think it has to be forthcoming.

Bredesen is a bit old as prospective Senate freshmen go, but he's about the same age as Sen. Alexander.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
SD-AL: DCCC making big push to get Herseth Sandlin to run again
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Israel said he had exchanged emails with Herseth Sandlin, but that he had received no commitment from her on running again.

"We would love to have Stephanie Herseth back," he said.

Not a big surprise but welcome all the same.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


I wouldn't expect her to decide
For a good while yet. She can't afford another loss if Tim Johnson retires in 2014.
[ Parent ]
SHS
should just keep her powder dry until 2014. She could either run for governor or Tim Johnson's seat if he retires.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
She could very well win in 2012.
I think it would be better for her to run and get rid of Kristi Noem. She has the option of waiting for a possible, but not certain retirement or 2012.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
New York City Mayor 2013
http://www.advocate.com/News/D...

Christine Quinn a possible candidate would be the first woman and lesbian mayor of the largest city in the country.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

A question for New Yorkers -- to what extent did she piss off ...
... especially Democrats outside of Manhattan (Manhattan white liberals can't seem to get enough of Mayor Bloomberg) by backing Bloomberg's aggragant, craven power grab for a third term -- it seems to me like she and many others on the City Council just gave into Mayor Mike (well, she also got to run again and keep the speaker's chair).  I know she also didn't endorse Bill Thompson until right before the election.  He really was treated very poorly by many Democrats, from President Obama on down.
[ Parent ]
Good question
I think a LOT of people, myself included, didn't realize the extent to which Bloomberg pissed people off with his power-grab. The 2009 results were nothing short of shocking (though I also sort of wonder why the polling was so off, and why Thompson, except for one little-noticed poll at the end, didn't really show anyone any good internals). So Quinn could be tainted by this as well, though quite some time will have passed by 2013.

The thing for Quinn, though, is will her closeness with Bloombo hurt her in the Dem primary. You've gotta believe other folks, especially Thompson, will make an issue of that. While I suppose it's possible Quinn could win in a divided field, I don't see her as having a strong shot right now.

[ Parent ]
In primary elections, I would just be inclinded
to vote for Democrats who, you know, stood by and supported other Democrats.  Bill Thompson was a perfectly legitimate and viable candidate, and even though it looked like he had no shot in hell through pretty much the whole campaign, you still stand behind your party's nominee, unless you have a very, very good reason not to.  Even when it puts you on the losing side of an election.
[ Parent ]
Amen
I wish more people agreed with that perspective.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I think Bill Thompson will again win the nomination
To my knowledge, there are no other high-profile African-American candidates gearing-up to run in this. There are, however, at least three white liberals - Weiner, Stringer and Quinn. De Blasio and Liu will surely consider it, too. Thompson has really established himself as something of a Dinkins Part Deux, with impressive support among liberals of all demographics. I doubt he can avoid a run-off, but I suspect he'd defeat any of the aforementioned folks in a head-to-head.

I do think, however, that Ray Kelly probably runs as an Independent and defeats the Democrat. The D fight will be busy and costly.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
New York just amazes me
Sure, Bloomberg isn't what most people outside NYC consider a "Republican," but that the biggest city in the county hasn't elected a Democratic mayor since 1989 is incredible. Do New Yorkers like the idea of a moderate, business-type in control of things, or is this the product of a chain of uninspiring Democratic candidates?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
More the latter
Bloomberg was never really popular, except around 2005-2006 when things were going well. Bloomberg probably would have never won if not for 9/11.  
[ Parent ]
Next
NYC mayor will probably be a Democrat unless someone unknown pops up, the reason we didn't have a Dem mayor in the last 20 years is that our last Dem mayor was a big fat racist anti-semitic incompetano.
I hope SSPers aren't offended of the characterization of this atrocious Democrat.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
SSP
Get out of here with this crap.  Dinkins was nowhere near as bad as teabaggers and Rudy claim.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
How exactly is he racist?
I would really like to know.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Cut it out guys
Rehashing this stuff is a waste of time.
[ Parent ]
It's not as if I started the topic.
I was just curious. He did bring it up, but I digress.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Yours was the last comment
I meant nothing by it.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
This is absolutely not going to fly around here. I think you can apologize and never do anything like this again, or move on. Ball's in your court.

And by apologize, I mean, "I'm sorry" without qualifiers.

[ Parent ]
If so
I'm sorry for posting this

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
Um
Well, to clarify nicely...two sets of normally Democratic voters, Law & Order union types and Jewish voters, flipped to the GOP after Dinkins because they felt he was a failure as a mayor vis-a-vi crime and Crown Heights.

[ Parent ]
God I'm dumb
When i read Law & Order union i thought about a group of people watching Law & Order the tv show...sigh.  Long day...
[ Parent ]
why did I capitalize that?
I must've thought of the same thing  
[ Parent ]
I think it's actually a combination of both
The likes of Abe Beame and David Dinkins, who didn't embody the sort of tough, law-and-order persona of Ed Koch and Rudy Giuliani, were considered monumental failures. Since Koch, the Dems have nodded one crummy candidate after another, and usually through testy, costly primaries.

In '97, you had Ruth Messinger vs. Al Sharpton, and Sharpton nearly forced Messinger into a run-off. Messinger's message throughout that campaign was a rather lame one - that Giuliani was putting on a sunny face in public and being an unbearable a-hole behind-the-scenes. Their one debate opened with Messinger stating something like "the Rudy Giuliani you are about to see tonight is not the real Rudy Giuliani." What a dumb, weightless argument. In '93, voters went with Giuliani over Dinkins because they wanted a tough d-bag who would prove tough-on-crime.

In '01, the wimpy Mark Green forced plurality winner Fernardo Ferrer into a run-off, which Green went onto win via sleazy mailers that were perceived by the black community as racist. Bloomberg was no sterling candidate himself, but Green ran such a lame, lifeless campaign, and he never reached out to the minorities who felt alienated during the primaries.

In '05, Ferrer won the primary rather handily, but so what? Bloomberg had sky-high approval and, after over a decade of it, New Yorkers felt rather content with Republican control. It's kinda common knowledge, even among Democrats, that the NYC Democratic Party is rather embarrassing. The days of '77, where half a dozen amazing candidates would run for the party nod simply don't exist anymore, given those candidates don't seem to be out there. Stringer, Quinn and De Blasio are right up there with Mark Green in lameness. A lot of Democrats quite like Thompson, but there's definitely a sentiment/fear out there that he's the next Dinkins who'll be soft on crime and bury the NYC Dems further down the drain. And then Weiner is popular with liberals, but he ran a pretty dreadful mayoral campaign in '05, so who's to say he'll perform any better now.

Mark my words - it's Kelly vs. Thompson in '13.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Primary
It's more a product of bruising Democratic primaries. There's usually the white Dem (usually Irish or Jewish, could be Italian), the Puerto Rican Dem, and the black Dem, and they'll fight it out until the guy who wins with 35% is so beaten up he has no chance. The GOP then comes in with a white guy (think Giuliani here) who will clean up in eastern Queens, SW Brooklyn, and Staten Island, and then wins thanks to depressed turnout in minority areas of Brooklyn and Manhattan, and terrible turnout in the Bronx.

Bloomberg in 2001 kept out of the Dem primary by becoming a Republican, waited it out as Mark Green, Pete Vallone, Freddy Ferrer, and Alan Hevesi duked it out for two rounds, and went on to win because he is quite liberal on some accounts so white palatable enough for rich Manhattan liberals to vote for. Fusion voting (he was also on the Independence Line) also helps.

With some many different ethnic groups it's hard for the Dems to come up with a perfect candidate. With the growth of the Asian population in Queens and the city as a whole, we'll probably see more division in mayoral primaries.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
Bloomberg
only became a Republican so he could run for mayor. After Corzine's candidacy, there was supposedly a big issue with another liberal Democrat who made lots of money trying to buy his way into office.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
John Lui is going to run.
The City Comptroller doesn't have well publicized "own hall meetings" all over the city if they aren't running. I think he'll be very formidible.  He hasn't stopped running the second he won office.  And he still is a great speaker and has kept his coalition intact.  diBlasio likewise is almost certain to run.

As for Dinkins.  While not as bad as his reputation.  In the end he was too nice of a guy to be Mayor and while in part due to it being the height of the crack epidemic a low point for the city. Being Mayor of New York requires you to be a bastard to get things done.  And he just was never forceful enough to get done what he wanted to get done.

MosheM is referring to the mess in Crown Heights where Dinkins pussyfooted around and never took a strong stance against the violence.  But I'd disagree on it making him a racist.  Just someone who was better suited to be a behind the scenes administrator rather than a leader.

Also Guiliani (though actually it was Bill Bratton but Guiliani does get credit for bringing him in) whether you like it or not deserves a lot of credit.  His first term was great.  But like Koch his third term was a disaster.  And like Koch (and Bloomberg) his ego grew so big that the  neaby states was needed just to store it.

As for the Republicans coming back.  Who knows?  Everyone was banking on the Democrats taking over with Guiliani gone.  Then you had 9-11 and a billionaire entering the race.  There are other billionaires and celebrities who could always enter at a moments notice.  Christine Quinn after years of carrying water for Bloomberg is well positioned if she somehow wins the Democratic nomination to steal defeat from the jaws of victory.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
CA-SD-28: Ted Lieu elected outright.
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns...
He wins with 57.1% of the vote, enough to get him straight to the State Senate to pass a voter referendum to extend a revenue plan that is crucial to the state's budget.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
DCCC Fundraising
Apparently they raise $4.4M in January, good number except that leaves them still about $16M in the hole...

Counting down till the NRCC releases their number in response, I woudn't be surprised if they raised closer to $10M and retired all their debt, nothing like a new majority to get those checks rolling in...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

That would actually be very surprising.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
You may be right
Historically the new in party's committee with outraise the ousted committee about 2-1 in the first month of the year they take office, but I also saw that the NRCC made public $2M in unpaid dues from members, leading me to believe they aren't matching their numbers.

It would be a pretty big coup for the DCCC to outraise the NRCC...not that in means much in the long term, but those guys could use some good news...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Looking at that PPP poll in TN
I wish pollsters looking at R Pres primaries would poll for scenarios where Palin runs and Huckabee doesn't, or vice versa.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
for what it's worth
Steve Deace, who just quit as Iowa's leading conservative drive-time talk radio host, tweeted yesterday, "Hearing pretty definitively that neither Palin or Huckabee are running for president now."

Deace was a huge Huckabee backer during the last campaign and is close to Bob Vander Plaats, who was Huck's Iowa chairman.

[ Parent ]
Would be no surprise
Particularly Huckabee. If you pardon the pun I don't think he has the stomach for it.
[ Parent ]
Agreed on Huckabee
With Palin, though, I won't believe that she's in or out until it's the day after the 2012 RNC. Too erratic for me to try guessing.

I think the primary polls are underestimating her strength by including Huckabee as an option. And if both of them truly are out of the picture, Rick Santorum may do better than expected.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
hmm
To a large extent Palin and Huckabee's bases overlap as each was much more likely to be the second choice of the other's voters in the last PPP poll. One not running would greatly help the other.

But I'll believe that neither is running when I see it. I suspect that a lot of people and media outlets would lose interest in Palin if she took herself out of the running, costing her a great deal of the attention and money that she craves. If both indeed drop out, I agree that it creates an opening for Santorum (or Bachmann?) who can appeal to social conservatives and resentful/paranoid types.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I actually like Huckabee
It's sad he gets lumped in with the rest of these.  i've never found him to be hateful and he's just very religious.
These others (Palin, Santorum, Bachmann) may start with some religiousness (spelling) but veer well off the path of any sensibility or spirituality ever known to mankind.
[ Parent ]
His stances on the issues the affect me and many other groups.
So yeah I consider him pretty hateful and I would lump him together with Palin, Santorum, and Bachmann.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
He is less bad
Which isn't saying much.
[ Parent ]
Oh I think he's one of the better republicans out there
His positions aren't hateful, they just differ.  For all of his basis in religion he's actually pretty ho-hum because a lot in the good book can be twisted to be WAY WORSE than his views.  

Considering all the protests against abortion, gay marriage, and the vitriol in those debates, he's pretty balanced for a national figure who actually has an opinion (as opposed to Romney who probably supports and opposes all things some of the time and the other 3 listed who'd be happy to actively harm (not physcially) gays, monorities and so on).

[ Parent ]
I have to agree
Huckabee seems like a decent man who'd be interesting to meet and talk to for a while, or (to use a cliche) have a beer with, and I give him credit for being willing to occasionally pick fights with his own party on economic issues, but as President he'd still be pretty damn reactionary.

I'm occasionally amused by some of my relatively politically astute (and liberal) friends that say they might be open to voting for Huck. Yeah, he's not AS bad as Palin or Bachmann, but that's not saying a whole lot, is it?  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I think as astute as we all are...
...And I'm half-joking, half-not, there is still that personal issue with voting.  Its very much forgotten that just a mere 10 years later but if Gore had been more "the guy to have a beer with" he would have won.  And I'm sure its a factor in lower profile races and I'm sure we've all seen it there.  

(On a side note, I actually read something in my hometown newspaper that the mayor of my hometown has had the job for 39 years and is a Dem in upsatet NY (NY-20) and I was shocked.  I think people just like him and there's that and not much else, because Republicans usually clean up here in various races)

I actually think while they might govern similarly, that having a conversation or beer with Huckabee would be substantially different than Palin or Bachmann.  I think Santorum is awful too but I bet with all his kids you could even have a normal 60 second conversation with him before he went off....Palin/Bachmann, probably not.

[ Parent ]
Well, sure
Huckabee's never really struck me as a black helicopters, New World Order kind of guy, which Bachmann is and which Palin and Santorum both like to flirt with.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
It's funny
I occasionally hear Palin-Reagan comparisons on the interwebs. They usually go, "Reagan was considered too conservative to be elected nationwide in 1980." I think Huckabee is more in this line. I personally don't think he's running, but he could totally be the candidate who everyone thought was too conservative to win and then turned out to have enormous crossover appeal. I guess, like Reagan, he has a lot of charisma. He's also level-headed and passionate, two qualities that usually don't go together. Sure he's a Christian conservative, but he's not as craven about it as, say, Rick Santorum. He strikes me as a true believer.

NY-01/NY-19
[ Parent ]
Huckabee
I think his base is social conservatives (especially in the south) who aren't especially resentful and aren't doctrinaire economic conservatives. His mindset isn't anything like Palin's, so it may be the case that his supporters generally like Palin because she's more overtly religious than Romney or Newt.  

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Palin's pretty good at playing the faux populist
Which probably helps.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I like Huck
As far as GOP crazies go, I like Huckabee. The guy's got guts and vision. His nice guy image would go a long way and he integrated his church before a lot of others. Shame that Dobson and the far right sold out to Giuliani and McCain early on in '08. They had no one but themselves to blame for a bad candidate.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
That would be huge
I always figured that if either of them decided not to run, it would probably push the other one more towards running, as their overlap in support has been well recognized.  I can't see Huckabee and Palin just letting Romney walk all over the other lesser known candidates, unless they really think there's another bona fide social conservative who they think can win.

If the election comes down to Romney, Daniels, Pawlenty, and either Huckabee or Palin, I'd give the edge to whichever of the latter two is running, probably just from sweeping the Southern primaries, and counting upon split support in the midwest.

[ Parent ]
If they're both out
does that make Gingrich the de facto "true conservative?" Romney's records is too.. well we all know. The lesser known candidates are likewise unpure or completely obscure.  

NY-01/NY-19
[ Parent ]
I still can't take Gingrich's bid seriously
and I don't think many Republicans (outside of the beltway) do either.  He's pretty much had one scandal and failure after another since becoming Speaker in January of 1995.  By 2012, he will have been out of political office for 14 years.  How many Republicans think he's the best they can offer up?
[ Parent ]
Bachmann giving indications she may run
Said everything I needed to know about Palin possibly running.  
[ Parent ]
Do you think she'd have any chance
at the nomination? I suspect she may go down worse than Palin if she were the nominee. Both are crazy, but Palin seems to hide it better.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
IA-01
After Bruce Braley's narrow escape (facing $1.6 million in outside spending against him and barely beating a little-known challenger 49.5 percent to 47.5 percent), he is reinventing himself as a deficit hawk. Wouldn't be my image-making choice, but I understand why he's trying.

Most people think Braley's district will expand to include a bunch of NE Iowa counties currently represented by Tom Latham (R, IA-04). While most people expect Latham to run in the new IA-03, he could end up facing Braley in the new IA-01 instead. Latham has a lot of money in his campaign account, and the NRCC will put up money for his race, since he is Boehner's buddy. I believe Latham is trying to somewhat moderate his image going into the next cycle.

Hey David!
Congratulations on your outing/job announcement on DKos today. I'm a huge fan of your profile picture.
I just saw that
Pretty nice, I hope the transition to DK goes smoothly.  Maybe I should Pimp my newly renovated DK account.

http://www.dailykos.com/user/D...

Original, right?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
My reaction
Is that it? A throwaway mention in an open thread? I would hope there will be more to come.
[ Parent ]
Perriello defers to Kaine
Will consider it if Kaine stays out. Typical beltway "liberal" nonsense in the article.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Yup
And it was like reading an article froma  Periello supporter trying NOT to sound like a Periello supporter (but failing).
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be surprised...
if the party leadership offered him a deal: stay out of the Senate race, and you get our backing to run for, say, Attorney General in 2013. Running against Kaine in a primary isn't going to win him any friends with the party establishment, and that's where he needs friends, since he's got the activist base behind him.
[ Parent ]
Or he has class

[ Parent ]
Perriello won't run against Chairman Kaine
He's smarter than that. I think he'd rather run for a state office, either attorney general or governor, but he'll get in the Senate race with gusto if Tim Kaine declines the honor. I see no scenario in which there is a Kaine-Perriello primary.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Governor is a non-starter
T-Mac gets to be our nominee in '13. He's paid his dues and started running pretty much the day after Deeds lost. Personally, I back Perriello for Senate and think he can beat Kaine even if they both do run. Perriello doesn't need the establishment, look at Specter v. Sestak.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
"T-Mac gets to be our nominee in '13"
Not if anyone with a pulse runs against him.
[ Parent ]
I really, really hope that T-Mac doesn't become our nominee in 2013
He would get absolutely crushed down South, and I don't think he would necessarily do much better than an average D in the exurban swing counties. Plus I really hate those politicians that think they "deserve" the nomination because they lost the last time. I personally hope Perriello runs for Governor in 2013 if he doesn't run for senate in 2012. I think Perriello could actually beat T-Mac in the Democratic primary by uniting the liberal base/netroots and the southerners. When it comes to Perriello  v. Kaine in the senate primary, I'm currently undecided. I keep going back and forth between which one I want, I can see the advantages for both of them.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
DPVA is scared
We lost 6 seats in the state house by less than 500 votes in '09 up north, and so the establishment is really just interested in how much money T-Mac would invest downballot. Personally, I think Perriello is one of the best public officials the state has ever seen, but I think the general consensus among the VA elite is that T-Mac could help us solidify the state senate and inch back in the state house. They're also terrified of having another primary disaster like '09.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Perriello
I agree with what you say. I think they are going to try and get him to run for his Congressional seat in a rematch vs. Hurt depending upon how redistricting goes.

Personally I think that he would be perfect for a statewide run in 2013. I don't believe that he is eligible to be AG as he isn't a registered Lawyer in VA right now and I believe you need to be registered with the bar for at least 5 years before you run.

TMac has no "dibs" on Governor in 2013. It is wide open and nobody is the front runner.


28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
So
my latest pet interests in the world of politics lately has taken me overseas towards Australia where I've been watching the election in the Australian state of New South Wales (where Sydney is) with great fascination. Seeing how I have a 4 day weekend coming up and not much to do, should I try to post a diary here detailing the state election there or am I wasting my time?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
I'd love to see it
Bare-knuckled Aussie politics are always highly entertaining to me.

Politics here across the Tasman seem relatively staid. The major parties just don't disagree on all that much (both Prime Minister Key and ex-Prime Minister Helen Clark, heads of the opposing major parties, are open agnostics who support efforts to curb global warming, oppose whaling, don't favor New Zealand involvement in Iraq or Afghanistan, support the welfare state, oppose nuclearization of New Zealand, support same-sex civil unions, and are pragmatic republicans. The depth of their positions is really the only major difference, as far as I can tell.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
They sure
love to backstab their leaders down there in the Land down under. Witnessed by Kevin Rudd being deposed as PM by his deputy Julia Gillard and the rise of NSW Premier Kristina Keneally who's probably going to be out of a job come March if NSW Labor doesn't find a way to close their twenty five point gap in the polls.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I'm all for learning about elections in other countries
I followed the last British election pretty closely, but I payed much less attention to the last Australian election (only know the basic details; Rudd gets axed by Labor and replaced with Gillard, election goes down to the wire, Labor forms coalition gov't with the Greens and some indies). I think getting a little more in depth there would be interesting.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
I've always been fascinated
by the way elections go in other countries, and I think a diary would be welcome on SSP.
[ Parent ]
I'd read it


22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I'd certainly welcome their perspective on immigration
Wondering if their Liberal/National party coalition is still in effect, if they now have an analogue to the BNP, whether there are any greens at work, etc.

I realize it's just one of the six states in Oz, but NSW is the biggest. I'd also wonder whether there are any political effects from the floods / hurricanes up north (Queensland)

[ Parent ]
About
the floods in Queensland, they're having a fight in Canberra right now how to pay for the cleanup. PM Julia Gillard want to pay for the cleanup with a mixture of a new flood tax and budget cuts while the Liberal/National coalition wants the cleanup paid for by cuts alone (That sounds very familiar doesn't it?).



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Speaking of Commonwealth elections...
I just saw that Canada's next parliamentary election is scheduled for October 15, 2012! What a month that's going to be for us political nerds! They better not ruining it by calling an election early.

I can't wait to see if the Tories are weakened in my (Canadian familial home) Perth-Wellington riding, but I doubt it. Incidentally, Stratford, the center of the riding, is where Dalton McGuinty refuted Ontario Tory claims that he was an "evil reptilian kitten-eater from another planet," when he took some pictures with a little kitty.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
I'm planning to post my DK diary tomorrow (6p PST)
Got word that the announcement has been made on DK, in the morning digest, with little fanfare ref http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

I'll plan to post tomorrow evening, 6pm Pacific time.

If you've read it early on, it's gone through some revisions, courtesy of suggestions from several users.

If you haven't read it yet, here are the titles:

Title: Will Daily Kos welcome the full range of Swing State Project users?

Subtext: Can a not so liberal Democrat feel Welcome at Daily Kos?

SubSubtext: Can a poster who feels lost in a huge fast moving community feel comfortable in a big city environment like Daily Kos?


Doesn't bode well if you ask me
David, is there going to be something a little more expansive to follow? I there is I would hold fire a bit longer tietack.
[ Parent ]
Conspiracy's suggestion is good
If DavidNYC lets me know here or privately (he should have my email address), I'll hold off again.
[ Parent ]
FYI, I've emailed both Davids with your question (since I share the interest)
(NYC and Crisitunity)
[ Parent ]
Good move
Keep us posted.
[ Parent ]
Nope
That's it. I'll be writing more on the move here before it happens, and I'm sure there will be at least one post at DK when it does happen, too. But for now, that's all there is to it.
[ Parent ]
At least one post when it happens?
I would hope so too.
[ Parent ]
Comments on timing invited
Do you think I should wait until the actual move happens, before posting the linked diary?  
[ Parent ]
Personally
I would wait. If David is going to get a front page post outlining everything it seems to me your diary would be an appropriate follow-up.
[ Parent ]
Okay, I will wait longer
My thought on a target date -- either

1) DavidNYC's first FP post at DK
2) SSP incorporation into DK

whichever comes first, and with the understanding that it might be (2-3?) weeks, and not necessarily days from now.

Gosh, with all of these stops and starts I've made, I feel more waffly than Bush 41..... But I suspect it's par for the course with the conflicts I feel.... I would like to get a sense of the reception from the current DK userbase asap, but I realize the importance of timing.

(In any case, the diary is in draft form in my DK account, ready for the publish button.)

[ Parent ]
Perhaps I'm a little to blame for that
Holding you back somewhat. I just think it is important to try and make the transition as clean as possible. Your diary is a crucial part of that process but it would be a shame to get off on the wrong foot over there particularly as you are one of our most valuable posters IMO.
[ Parent ]
Appreciate the kind words
In any case, since I'm not running for office (and have no such future plans), being waffly (admitting faults, even changing my mind about certain things) is not such as big deal to me.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, it does seem a little early
That blurb about SSP on the front page was not too big, and judging from the lack of comments regarding it I think that possibly not too many people noticed it.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Appreciate the update, n/t

[ Parent ]
Haven't posted in awhile-WI is getting crazy
For anyone who isn't kept up on Wisconsin politics, the short version is Scott Walker proposed a bill to take away bargaining rights from public unions.  Like teacher's unions, etc.  

18,000 people protested at the capital the other day and servers shut down because state Reps. and Senators e-mails were full.  

Wisconsin even hit international news with this: http://www.guardian.co.uk/comm...

sigh  Cannot wait to start turning this all around with the State Supreme Court race in April.  

Does wisconsen have any ridiculous laws that allow them to recall a governor
Like they do here in California?  Because I could see that happening if they do.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Listening to the radio today-
Republican legislature is going to be proposing amendments to the bill today or tomorrow.  

I guess Wisconsin wasn't in need of a budget repair bill till Walker and the Republicans went on a spending spree in January.  Editorial article on that here: http://host.madison.com/ct/new...

As for recall law... In Wisconsin you have 60 days of circulation time to get signatures for more than 25% of the votes cast in the gubernatorial election.  In this case, you would need 540,183 signatures.  

[ Parent ]
If people are as pissed off as it seems
they wouldn't have to hard of a time doing that.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Sign of things to come nationally perhaps

[ Parent ]
Chris Bowers (dkos campaign director) was talking about that on twitter couple days ago
He sounded very confident, almost bragging, about how easy it would be. Don't know if he was seriously starting something or just making threats, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's something they try to do. Hopefully they wait so the election coincides with the 2012 presidential election so we have the advantage of better turnout.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
I'm not as fond of Bowers political instincts as I used to be
Ever since his full throated endorsement (complete with soliciting campaign money) of Alan Grayson. But in this case, I sure hope he's right. Walker is terrible.  
[ Parent ]
Bowers is the one pushing Elizabeth Warren at DK
while it's certainly "out of the box," I don't see it as a compliment to his political instincts either.
[ Parent ]
This recall stuff leaves me cold
For the last eight years the netroots position has been "bad" whether it be California, New Jersey, Nebraska or wherever. Now all of a sudden we are supposed to be all for it because a Republican is doing what a Republican does? I'm afraid that doesn't wash with me. What ever happened to elections have consequences?
[ Parent ]
A big part of me would like to see it done
if nothing else that it would be a win/win personally. Either we get rid of Walker, or the schadenfreude of watching the reaction of Dkos when it goes down in flames. I'd like to see who they blame for a recall failing. I wonder how they'll pin it on Obama?

[ Parent ]
He was the netroots numbers guy
Until Nate superseeded him. I agree he isn't as good at what he does now.
[ Parent ]
He's still pretty good with the numbers...
If you read his political analysis bases on polling, it's pretty free of bias or taint. His look at the 2010 campaigns was usually pretty honest, IMHO.  
[ Parent ]
No doubt I'll be doing that over the coming months
It'll be like being back at MyDD during 2007!
[ Parent ]
Almost forgotten what those days were like
mydd was great in the 2005-2007 years.  But it changed significantly in early 2008, and has never been the same.
[ Parent ]
MyDD
MyDD was easily my favorite political site during those years.  Ever since Obama/Hilary the place has been abysmal.  Jerome went off the tracks, Beeton stopped posting so much and Bowers left.

The site gets maybe 2-3 front page postings a week, usually reposted from somewhere else.  

I think it all started with Jerome going off his rocker.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
MyDD
Oh and Stoller too, I liked him too.

Stoller, Beeton and Bowers were all pretty good.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
That's not quite fair, I think
First, his former co-blogger, Matt Stoller, was a senior staffer with Grayson.  Second, he didn't say Grayson was going to win, he just said he liked him.  That's his right, and doesn't speak to his political instincts.  I know lots of people who liked Cindy Sheehan, but were never under any illusions that she was going to knock off Pelosi.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
My pet peeve
Was not that he backed Grayson, but that he and the rest of Kos actually solicited money for him, potentially taking away from progressive Dems who were more viable and less wealthy. I probably agree with most of Graysons positions, but he threw away a swing district by running some of the most offensive ads of either party.
[ Parent ]
Grayson
Alan Grayson was a Better Democrat at Open Left but never made it to Orange to Blue.  
[ Parent ]
2010!
Have no idea who Kos was soliciting money for that cycle because the ceaseless asking for money in 2008 was a turnoff.  
[ Parent ]
That's a fair point
I hadn't thought about Grayson's self-funding ability in that light.  Well said.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Recall
I think they have to wait until he has one full year in office too, which means the recall would most likely be pushed to Nov. 2012 or (hopefully not) the summer primary date.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
I believe the answer is yes
but it is more difficult.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
PPP: W. Bush polls better nationally than most of Republican Pres. frontrunners

Only Huckabee performs better, trailing Obama by three. Bush polls 44-48 against Obama, with Romney, Palin, Gingrich, Paul, and Trump (???) further behind. 

Not sure what to make of this. Wait a minute, I think my brain is goinAAAAAARGGGH



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
I believe this supports the idea of a Jeb Bush run in 2016.
It shows, given certain circumstances, W. isn't the radioactive isotope people think he is.  Granted it's probably more of an anti-obama vote, especially considering 44% of the public say any Bush is Persona on Grata, those numbers were similar to hillary's unfavorables back in 2007.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
While I can't really project to 2016 just yet
Could the world be lining up any more for a Jeb Bush run in 2016.  I mean all of the current repubs will be old hat by then except Huntsman (and Bachmann but I'm not sure crazy will be as valuable in 2016).  Imagine a J.Bush/Huntsman ticket in 2016.  That would be formidable and would throw FL, CO, and NC back into play for sure and possibly VA and whole host of others.

Is there a way we can stop him 5 years early?

[ Parent ]
He looks like a moderate
In comparison to those clowns. Plus he isn't in the news. Short memories plus nostalgia.
[ Parent ]
There are people
That sit around saying "Hey, remember when George Bush was the President? Weren't those the days?"?

I mean, I guess in some part of my head I knew this to be the case, but it's not something I ever dedicated time to thinking about until now.

...

I'm just going to go eat a sandwich and lie down for a while.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
huzzah morning DD!
While the afternoon DD is something to look forward too, I love waking up to the DD.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
quick question for MASS residents
if Kaine runs and Deval Patrick leaves the governorship to become DNC chair, how would you feel about this?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
I
think if he does take it he'll probably do both like Kaine did at first.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I gave my fairly non-partisan outlook on it yesterday
My comment from the digest is here: http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Basically, Patrick has been looking for some sort of federal appointment since the start of Obama term, although he has been more effective as governor lately. I'd like to see him jump to the DNC, if only because LG Tim Murray would be the first governor from my part of the state in 95 years.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Do
you think there is any chance he does both jobs?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
It'd be hard
Kaine was right by DC, Deval is not.  
[ Parent ]
Quiz question
Say Tim Kaine runs and wins in Virginia. When was the last time both senators were previous governors of a particular state?
Pryor (David) and Dale Bumpers in AR?
back in the 70s and 80s, I think.
[ Parent ]
I can't think of an example
the closest I can come up with is Ohio, but DeWine was only LG. . .
[ Parent ]
Nebraska, right now
Nelson and Johanns are both former Govs. Johanns succeeded Nelson as Gov.  
[ Parent ]
Beat me to it!
Delaware would have been another if Castle had been elected, since Carper is also a former Governor.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Via Dkos' Paths to the Senate
So would have been cheating to answer main question, but now that it has been answered, I can say that another was Thurmond/Hollings.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
What is this "Paths to the Senate" you speak of?


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
A big Dkos post
Sorting the Senators of the last decade by career path:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Two more pairs
One is current, Manchin and Rockefeller in West Virginia.

And in the last Congress, Gregg and Shaheen in New Hampshire.

[ Parent ]
Another trivia question
What state(s) has two current Senators, who, prior to their Senate runs, had never sought or held political office before? I know of at least one off the top of my head.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
Wisconsin?


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin!
Herb Kohl and Ron Johnson, both rich guys before being Senators (though I think Kohl was the head of the Wisconsin Democratic Party).

There's another one as well, but I looked that one up.

[ Parent ]
Utah and Wisconsin


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Correct!
I only knew Wisconsin off the top of my head (I didn't count Kohl's tenure at the WDP because that's more of a party than political/elected position.) Kohl and Johnson both come from business backgrounds, while Hatch and Lee were both lawyers prior to their Senate runs.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Kentucky?
I think. Mitch McConnell was a lawyer in Louisville before running for the senate I believe.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
McConnell was the Jefferson County Executive before he was elected Senator.

[ Parent ]
Looks like DRA 2.1 is up
The biggest new feature IMO is that VA political data is available. There are some bugs though (i.e., you can't shade the map by political data, and it seems like if you delete a whole district, its political percentages won't show up if you redraw it).
Nice!
I've been waiting for the VA data.  Probably have to wait until the weekend to do much though.  I'm curious to see what the implications of a court-drawn map might be.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Loudoun County
It seems a few precincts in Loudoun have no votes for Obama, which results in the App showing that McCain won the county.  Otherwise, everything seems great.  I like the new map the app uses too, it's less busy.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Really?
I just tried it and it didn't seem to work

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Is there a new link for 2.1?
nt

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
It comes up for me
here.  
[ Parent ]
Political data
Yeah. I know what that is, I think -- I'm just enabling for old political data. Should be easy to fix today.
[ Parent ]
More trivia
Excluding at-large states, what states' House delegations were all first elected under the current map (i.e. all members were first elected in 2002 or later)?

There are six states.

Let's see (without looking)
Hawaii
Kansas
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Maine
uh...
Arkansas?  Don't know how old Ross is.
Idaho?  When did Simpson get in?
uh...here is where my ignorance of the Republican caucus comes back to haunt me.


25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
The first five are correct
There's one more.
[ Parent ]
I had to look
and it was one I crossed off, since I had figured one relatively unusual member had been around earlier before he did the thing that made him relatively unusual (hint to whoever else).

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
heh
Another hint: its delegation is bigger than any of the first 5 listed.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
louisiana
and are you describing rodney alexander's party switch?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Yah
I thought of him as some sort of...1994 holdover that only switched in 2004.  Yes, that doesn't make any sense.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Does New Mexico really count
Steve Pearce was in office before 2002.

Also, #6- Louisiana

[ Parent ]
Maybe, maybe not.
Louisiana is the last one.
[ Parent ]
Pearce
He was elected in 2002. My first time eligible to vote and I happily did not vote for him.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
Hmm
LA, KS, HI, and AR, I know for sure. Then I'll guess ME and NE.  
[ Parent ]
pressure on kaine builds
Webb and Obama saying they hope Kaine runs.  What happens if Kaine runs, wins, but doesn't like the job?  with Kaine are they just kicking the can down the road until either a republican wins, or a dem who wants the seat gets it?  

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

If Kaine bails in 2018 the Virginia Dem bench may well be bigger


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
same with the republican bench
McDonnell will be out of the governorship four years, Cuccinelli (or whatever the hell his name is) will either be AG, former governor, current governor, retired, something else or a has been former nominee/primary loser.  Bill Bolling maybe, though he'll be 61 then.  plus all of the current house members and future statewide office holders.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I think Dems would prefer a medium Dem bench and a big GOP bench versus a small Dem bench and moderate GOP one
Obviously that's not inevitable.  Still, if there's a moderate bench you have a few choices and maybe the other side can have a destructive crowded primary.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
I wonder how Perriello feels about this
My feeling is that if Chairman Kaine doesn't want to run or be a senator, Perriello is a perfectly acceptable - and credible - alternative. Hopefully President Obama, Sen. Murray, and Kaine are talking to Perriello as well.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Wednesday Open Thread | 234 comments

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