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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Feb 11, 2011 at 5:00 PM EST


James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 343 comments
Does anybody think
that Giffords has a chance to recover in time to run for the Kyl's senate seat?
Right now I hope she recovers fully.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I don't think that really should be the point of focus
Right now, we need to just look for a full recovery. Sever brain trauma is not small thing.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Dude, this is a campaign blog, elections are ALWAYS our point of focus
Speculating on Giffords' odds of being able to run for Senate is fair game.  There's nothing insulting or tasteless about it, on the contrary it's flattering.  It's not everyday you get shot square through the brain and people still want you to run for United States Senate; normally that would be treated as a disqualifying event without discussion!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
not tasteless but maybe pointless
She probably has a nonzero chance to recover in time to run a serious campaign but I have no idea whether it's 1% or 80%. From what I've read even the specialists who are treating her are very uncertain about this as recovery from these injuries is unpredictable.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
I also happen to think she won't run, but, for argument's sake...
Let's face it, Giffords would've proven competitive in a statewide race even before the Tuscan incident. She's undoubtedly the strongest Arizona Democrat out there. Terry Goddard? A nice guy, but he's about as exciting as Erskine Bowles. Janet Napolitano? Toxic after the Christmas Day bomber. Raul Grijalva? Good luck breaking 40%, my friend. I think Giffords would've defeated any Republican other than Jeff Flake. If Giffords were to run in 2012, I think she'd probably be the favorite to be Flake.

Alas, realistically, she probably won't run and Dems will have Goddard or - ugh - Rodney Glassman to try mustering enthusiasm for. If Flake wins the GOP nomination, it'll be a 2 to 1 blowout. If it's Hayworth, a high single-digit win.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Goddard, Giffords, Glassman, Grijalva
I think that Goddard or another dull-but-plausible candidate would beat Hayworth handily. Goddard still has decent favorables and no one could have beaten Brewer, who had high approvals in a very Republican year. I would imagine that most people in AZ can't stand Hayworth, and 2012 won't be nearly as bad for Dems as 2010 was.

I think that if Giffords had not been shot she would have been an underdog against Flake and a slight underdog against Shadegg, and probably 50-50 or better against any other Reep. As is, I'm going to stick with my earlier prediction that she is never going to lose an election--but I'm not ready to predict when, if ever, she is going to run again or for what office. That assumes that she would continue to run hard-nosed campaigns and pick her spots--notice she didn't go for Kolbe's seat until he retired.

I think Glassman is a typical candidate for a hopeless run against an entrenched incumbent and much weaker than you would get for any race that is expected to be competitive. I think that Grijalva understands that his appeal is narrow and that it would be pointless for him to run statewide.    

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Grijalva would better tend his own district
which he almost managed to lose in 2010, despite it being very Democratic. Glassman is weak, Giffords will, nost likely, recover for a long time. Goddard didn't especially impressed me as well in 2010, but what remains?
[ Parent ]
Goddard
He's probably their best bet if Giffords is not ready. Behind him I suspect it would be Felecia Rotellini, who ran for AG in 2010 and came closer than any other Dem who ran statewide. Then you have a large number of retreads who would pass the sniff test (unlike Glassman) but haven't run for anything in a while. Jim Pederson lost by 10 to Kyl in 2006 but I would not expect him to run again because he will be 70. Oddly enough, Sam Coppersmith who lost to Kyl by 14 in 1994 (red wave year) will be just 57. Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon has been mentioned, but he polled worse against Kyl among independents than Goddard, Napolitano, or Kirkpatrick.

Arizona isn't Utah or a deep south state. A boring Democrat can beat a scary Republican if it isn't a red wave year.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Do you have any idea
of why Phil Gordon polled so badly? That number itself can change, of course, and a lot of the people polled didn't have an opinion on him, so I am not sure I would rule him out just yet.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
beats me
He had poor numbers among self-described moderates (who usually vote Dem), so it wasn't just a case of him being well known and unpopular among conservatives. It seems really strange, though. Phoenix is a moderate city and he was reelected with 77% of the vote in 2007, so he must be doing something right. I can't believe he'd do as badly as the poll indicated, but for now it doesn't look good. Nico would probably have a much better explanation than I have.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
I honestly don't know
why he polled that badly. I was pretty surprised by that. The New Times/movement liberal types do some sand-pounding over his centrist-sheen, but I thought that most Democrats understood that under neither the moderate persona he had actually managed to pull off some rather progressive stuff as mayor of Phoenix. Plus Phoenix was only 52% Obama so you can't really ask for miracles.

I remember him kind of stepping in it with regards to his approach to the SB 1070 debate. He came out really strongly against it, which would obviously piss off supporters of the law. But unlike many other prominent opponents, he didn't actually try to do anything about it (such as Tucson and Flagstaff suing the state to block implementation), which means that he didn't mobilize any liberal supporters to his side despite pissing off tons of conservatives. I suspect that may be a broader reflection of his problem; when politicians try to be everything to everyone, they usually end up nothing to no one (see Kirkpatrick, Ann)

But I don't pay enough attention to Maricopa County politics, so I could be missing something.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
I'm not too impressed by Goddard's political operation.
I once watched him do an interview with Univision, in Spanish.

The Univision anchor came and asked him several questions in rapid-fire Spanish - and he couldn't understand what they were saying. It was pretty clear when she started talking that he had no idea they spoke Spanish that fast and wasn't prepared for it.

That doesn't say good things about his political operation. If they knew he was going to do an interview on Univision, in Spanish, they should've at least gotten him to watch - say - a minute of normal Univision broadcasting. Then he'd know whether or not his Spanish was at that level (it wasn't), and whether he could do the interview or not.

It just takes a minute, and the fact that his political operation failed to do something common-sense like that isn't very assuring.

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
That's really impossible to predict
Even if she's physically fit, we don't know what she'd decide at this point.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
She'd wanted to run
Before the shooting, she'd told staffers she'd wanted to run for the Senate if it was an open seat in 2012. I bet she still does. She's a fighter, after all.

Frankly, having the year 2011 be all about her remarkable recovery is good for her, politically. It means the press is likely to continue to only print the most glowing stories about her, and keep her name recognition high, while the Republicans start cutting each others' throats...metaphorically.

Gabby shouldn't jump into the Senate race until the last possible moment (though she should make her intentions on whether she'll do so clear to select party insiders so they'll know if they need to find another candidate). The second she becomes an official Senate candidate, the rules change and the glow starts to fade.

I tell you what, though... If Arizona sends Giffords to the Senate, it would erase a lot of the bad imagery and karma the state has built up over its assbackwards political climate in recent years.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
She's definitely a very hard fighter
But that doesn't necessarily mean she'd choose to run for the Senate at this time. She has had a major brain injury.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Assuming a sufficiently functional recovery
(which I gather normally takes on average 2-3 years for someone with her level of progress / support)

My wild guess speculation

Gabby goes on TV to demonstrate her progress. She then resigns her seat in time for a friend of hers to take over in '12, maybe even Mark Kelly.

And then she runs for Gov in '14, a higher level office consistent with a less demanding travel schedule than the Senate or House.

[ Parent ]
Why would she resign?

[ Parent ]
If the time required for rehabilitation
and the duties of being in congress are in conflict.

However, I believe that she would retain a high public profile for at least a couple of years, in such a scenario -- and a --temporary-- withdrawal from public office would only help her image.

[ Parent ]
If she is physically capable of serving...
She will serve.

Besides, her husband lives in Texas and her district leans Republican.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Dream scenario
In the SOTU '11, President Obama announces that Gabby is back and ready to serve --

Gabby stands, smiles, and waves to the crowd. (I tear up just thinking of the possibility.)

If her recovery is not sufficient after that, I think voter doubts would begin to set in - it would be just over a year. Tim Johnson was out for 9 months.

A year is an arbitrary number, but that's the length of time society in general gives to those of us who are widowed. Not comparable, except for the limit on how long the public is willing to wait.

[ Parent ]
Right now i want her to put all her energy...
...into recovering as well and healthy as possible.  I'd rather she not run if it all impedes her recovery process.  In the grand scheme of things the senate just simply isn't the most important thing.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
I think she can
if her husband feels comfortable going into space in two months, then there is a possibility I'd think.
[ Parent ]
Recovery doesn't recognize chamber
Since she has expressed the interest mentioned in the press many times, it would be odd to not run for Senate but do run for the House in 2012.

Since the choices would seem to be either to run for the Senate or run for nothing, I hope she runs for the Senate since that means she has recovered.

[ Parent ]
^^^Very smart comment by tommy, but there is an exception......
Yes, tommy's right, and on the surface if recovery itself keeps her from running for Senate, it's reasonable to think she'll have to hang it up altogether.

But I can see a plausible scenario where she runs for reelection to her House seat:  she's recovering, but not at a fast enough clip to fight the way she'd need to for a tough open seat she doesn't already hold.  It's easy to say she'd win on sympathy, but that's not necessarily true because voters will question to themselves the notion of electing a Senator who might not be fully functional to serve them.  But for reelection to the House, the district voters probably would be OK just giving her another 2 years on sympathy, since she's "our Congresswoman" already and was shot serving them and it's just too hard to vote against her.  But that sentiment might or might not carry over to a Senate race...she's not already "our Senator" to the voters, so the evaluation is just different.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I just hope
that she can return to the House.  That would be a huge moral victory.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I really disagree
staying right where you are and what you have been doing post-rehabilitation sounds like a plausible choice to me.
[ Parent ]
Depends
on how long her recovery itself takes. I would think that if she wants the nomination, it's hers. She probably needs less time than a lot of other people, but she probably still needs some time to get her fund raising and everything else in order. But we are in the middle of February of 2011 and the primary isn't until June of 2012, so we are a long way before we really need to have a good idea of who are candidate will be.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
PPP web poll out on where to poll next!
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Go there and vote! (I voted for Maine.)

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

I went with New Hampshire


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
GO FOR MAINE
I wanna see if Snow is going to get obliterated by a no name Teabagger this far out.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I suspect it's a useless poll, though
At this point, a pollster would've found Mike Castle up 30 points over Christine O'Donnell. Until the Tea Partier's name recognition is sufficient, I don't think there's much point to polling this. That is, of course, unless we find Snowe's re-elect at like 30% among Republicans, but I don't think they'll be nearly that bad/interesting.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Um, a PPP poll out last September showed
Snowe with re-elect numbers at ~30%.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I hope for the opposite.
And if she survives primery - most likely will root for her in general. If Democrats will again run ultraleft candidate like Bright or Mitchell - then for sure
[ Parent ]
What do you think of Michaud?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I really like him
and would like him to run. But his district is less Democratic of two, and has rather big teabagger's following. So it would requite great attention.
[ Parent ]
It's still a Democratic district, and moreso in a Presidential year, and...
...the fact that Michaud ultimately won comfortably last year just underscores it's among the hardest "gets" for Republicans.  Teabaggers are a liability there, not a "plus," the GOP would have to find a Snowe/Collins type to carry it.  Indeed, Snowe was the last Republican to hold it, and when she vacated to run for Senate in '94, even in that wave year the GOP couldn't take it as Baldacci won by 5 points in a 3-way.

If Republicans can't take the seat in wave years with GOP-friendly midterm turnout models, and once as an open seat, they're up against the wall in a Presidential.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
They are not
They had weak (may be - very weak) candidate in 2010 - candidate of Snowe views and caliber would defeat Michaud in 2010. And it's not a given that Obama will be at least as popular candidate there as he was in 2012 - too many unknowns. If seat will be open in 2012  and Republicans will find a Snowe-like candidate(like state Senator Raye) - the seat will be very close at least...
[ Parent ]
You didn't say anything different from me, except that the odds of a Snowe-like candidate...
...getting out of a primary are slim these days.  It requires the right-wing field to be split among two or more wingnuts, and a moderate slipping through with a plurality.  That's not impossible, but it's not something one can count on.  Even a hint of national party involvement to recruit a moderate candidate is enough these days to spark a furor among local Republicans always anywhere in the country, Maine included.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
No, i do say different things
You  (IMHO, of course) like generalisations too much and thus - talk about "anywhere in the country, Maine included". I - about second district of Maine, which is similar to other in some aspects, but dissimilar in other. That presupposes not general knowledge of "state of things in the country" (i would easily give you credit for that) but - concretics.

As was written in one of the recent links on main SSP page, the tea-party movement, while active in Maine, is rather badly split. May be - that's result of their success in 2010 with LePage, may be - by other reasons. For example - contrary to many states - they didn't found real opponent for Snowe so far, and, despite loud words - it's not clear that they will. Second - LePage himself tries rather to use tea-party movement as his tool, but avoid beiing it's tool himself - hence his rather quick support of Snowe.

In ME-2 Republicans have very well-known Snowe-type candidate, that's three. State Senate president Kevin Raye, who is vey well known (he ran against Michaud in 2002, was, probably more liberal then him on social issues, and almost won (48%) - only very heavy union vote in mill cities saved Michaud, who has very strong union ties). Raye can take credit for Republicans sizing control of state Senate (i think that pleases teabaggers too) and is popular with his colleagues. So - they really have suitable candidate NOW..

I hope that my words, that i write differently then you, are confirmed now...))))

[ Parent ]
Annoying
So, basically if you are a Democrat who won in 2010 it was either because you had a safe seat or because you had a weak Republican opponent. This is grossly unfair to people like Giffords, Connolly, Boswell, Michaud and others. They deserve some credit for bucking the tide. Remember there were quite a few "weak" Republican winners in competitive seats last November.
[ Parent ]
Some - yes, but don't overrate their successes
Giffords would almost surely lose to Patton who was solid conservative, but still - upstaged by mad teabagger Kelly, Connolly- to Herrity, Boswell - who knows, but second place finisher of Republican primary was stronger GE candidate then the winner. And Michaud had really weak opponent, who still got 45%. Yes, it was exceedingly  good Republican year, but still some reasons to worry. Candidate of Raye caliber would win in 2010. 2012 - we can only guess..
[ Parent ]
Why has Baldacci not gotten any attention for senate..
..is he just uninterested or did he leave office unpopular?

32, M, MI-6, Iconoclastic Leftist
[ Parent ]
The latter
and he won only 38% in a 4-way in 2006.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Same % as LePage
And that is meant to be impressive somehow.
[ Parent ]
I would like see Baldacci looking to the senate

Like the republicans do many times (Carcieri, Lingle, Rossi the last cycle,...)

The republicans are always ready, at least for disturb to the democratic incumbent.

[ Parent ]
I don't think so.
He left fairly unpopular.  Michaud or Scarelli would be better.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Me too

[ Parent ]
Egypt
Since this is an Open Thread, I thought I'd share a slideshow of the riots in Egypt that I found on YouTube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)

For a second I thought that was your pick for where PPP should poll next. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
It'd be pretty expensive to poll
Since I gather the yearly BBC and Pew polls in Egypt are done face to face.
[ Parent ]
No Way nt


50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
[ Parent ]
I do think a poll in Egypt may be warranted soon
though I'm not quite sure what this means

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02...

The Brotherhood has said it will not field a candidate for president or seek a parliamentary majority in the expected elections.

Best hope -- a voluntary separation of church and state?

It would be interesting for BBC or Pew (since they have the experience) to poll party opinions in Egypt in about a month or two.

[ Parent ]
Didn't read the link yet, but I don't think "seeking a parliamentary majority" is an option for them!......
MB seeking a "parliamentary majority" is about like the 3-member Senate tea party caucus seeking a Senate majority.

MB isn't that popular.  They are a major player with significant support, but not remotely close to majority support.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I've read 20% - 30% maybe
which could be enough in an election with 4+ major parties, which seems plausible.

But I don't know whether they'd go first past the post or something proportional in their elections, or do any sort of runoff at the Presidential level.

And there's little data. If memory serves, I think the annual BBC poll is done in April, which would be soon enough.

[ Parent ]
Mmm
anyone want to give your opinion on this ad broadcasted by the Australian Liberal Party (Australia's equivalent to the GOP) during the Federal elections there last year? I think its kind of err...weird especially with the voice over disclosure at the end. Notice they don't have to cite their facts in small font like we have to do here.

FYI: The election last year in Australia resulted in the Labor and the Liberal parties holding the same amount of seats in parliament. So incumbent PM Julia Gillard (Labor) had to form a coalition government to remain in power.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Was that ad in English?
I seriously picked up about 1 out of every 4 words there. I heard "labor (or is it "labour")" "rail" and "don't treat us like mugs", but that's about it.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Its
English. Probably more British than American and the accents and annoying music probably didn't help. But here's the transcript of the ad:

"Well Rudd was a dud so the power brokers gave Julia Gillard a go! Well Julia's trying to sell you the old railway story, its the same old labor show. With a rail link there and a broken promise there. Let's do the locomotion here we go! So look out Sydney, please don't kid me with another labor railway sideshow. With Julia fool-ya! With a rail con job, we've heard it all before! Don't treat us like mugs!"


19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Wow.
That makes me want to punch the writer of that script. But I guess maybe it plays better--more "clever" and punny or something--in Australia, maybe?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
British politics
Are there any good websites for tracking British politics? Not even an SSP equivalent (though that would be AWESOME) but even like a Politico or something. Also, same question for any other country than the United States...

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
I'm not aware of a Politico-like website...
but the Economist Magazine's section on Britain is usually pretty good. If you're looking for more partisan commentators then you can't go wrong reading Alex Massie, a Conservative partisan http://www.spectator.co.uk/ale... and Hopi Sen, a Labour partisan http://hopisen.wordpress.com/.  

20, Ind, PA-14
[ Parent ]
It's all polling all the time...
...with the only discussion going in the comments section but this was the site I used to always check during the last British elections.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/


NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Shocking to see how far the LD have fallen
I don't think they'd even get 20 seats if an election were held today.
[ Parent ]
Coalition governments are tough for junior partners.
They get the blame for everything that is wrong and all none of the credit for anything that goes right.  This is what helped kill the French Commmunist Party when they formed a coalition government with the Socialists.

Makes me sad because if I lived in the UK they are the ones I'd probably vote for since they are the party that shows the most commitment towards civil liberties.

But the Liberal Democrats went in to the coalition knowing the risks because they wanted one thing.  Electoral reform.  If they get it passed everything may work out for them in the end.  If not then the wilderness they've been stuck in since the early 1920s will become just that more desolate.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
During their last election, I used
[ Parent ]
Question Time:
Of the sitting Republican Governors who do you consider to be most likely to end up on a presidential ticket? List your top ten choices in order of likelihood.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...

20, Ind, PA-14

2012? Or beyond?
That is a key distinction.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
2012 or Beyond
People who you can see being nominated as Pres or Veep sometime in the next 20 years. I was influenced by this post http://www.governing.com/blogs...

20, Ind, PA-14
[ Parent ]
Good question
1. Mitch Daniels
2.Bobby Jindal, has a good shot at being #2 on a 2012 ticket
3.Susana Martinez, could see her leading the ticket in 2016, or being #2 next year
4. Bob McDonnell
5. Chris Christie
6. Rick Perry
7. Rick Snyder
8. Brian Sandoval
9. Scott Walker
10. Tom Corbett
[ Parent ]
Interesting
Why would you put McDonnell higher up than Christie?

20, Ind, PA-14
[ Parent ]
2012
McDonnell is one of the 4 people who I see as early frontrunners for the VP nod in 2012 (the others being Rubio, Jindal, and Martinez). I don't see Christie wanting to be on a ticket as VP, and he's not running in 12.  
[ Parent ]
The republicans will have a poor mix for 2012 looking to the current senators and governors

A lot of senators and governors will have not enough seniority in his current office.

Others what have enough seniority have too much age.

And the rest come from very red states. This help not for win swing states.

Out this rules only they are:

- M Daniels
- O Snowe (unpopular between the republicans).
- S Collins (unpopular between the republicans).
- J Ensign (affected by scandals).

It is a poor mix.

[ Parent ]
I think the this time the republican primary can be more important for pick the republican candidate for VP.

The republicans have the experience of pick a recent governor without experience in 2008 (S Palin was in her first term).

I think this time the winner of the primary can look to other primary runners (just M Daniels sound for a bid too).

[ Parent ]
Do I have to come up with ten?
Sigh... I'll try.

1. Mitch Daniels

The only current Governor who's actually (probably) running for President.

2-5. Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez, Brian Sandoval

Given the Republicans' lack of popularity among nonwhite voters, one of these three would be an easy VP pick to add some color (pun very much intended).

6. Scott Walker

One of the younger Governors on the list, I'm putting him here because he's got the biggest stretch of time in which to be a potential candidate.

7. Chris Christie

I think his style is working for him in New Jersey, but I doubt he'd do well on a national stage, despite all the current hype for him. Republicans would never choose a half-term governor to be on their ticket... Oh, wait.

8-9. Sam Brownback, Dave Heineman

The "boring conservative" alternatives.

10. Bob McDonnell

Way overhyped, but he's from a swing state.

[ Parent ]
Of course it's situational depending on who the nominee is...
1) Tom Corbett

From a large swing state.  Has good conservative credentials.  Not the most exciting pick.  But a solid one.

2) Scott Walker

The upper midwest has for years now been identified by Republicans as an area of opportunity.  Walker is from a state, Wisconsin. that has been getting friendlier to Republicans.  And his hard nosed stance against public unions makes him a hero to the Republican base.

3) Mitch Daniel.

If Indiana is in trouble and worth protecting the Republicans have already lost.  But what Mitch brings is experience and gravitas.

4) Susana Martinez.

Female hispanic breaks the mold for Republicans and has an interesting life story.  Former prosecutor who pursed child abuse cases.  From a small but important swing state.  Pro-life and anti-gay marriage which clears out the primary Republican litmus tests though may be considered too moderate at least in demeanor for many.

5) Chris Christie.

Loves a good fight but comes off more as a teddy bear than a bully.  Conservatives love what he's doing in New Jersey.  And while he probably can't deliver New Jersey could possibly forced the Democrats to spend money there

6) Bob McDonnell

You probably don't take him just to secure Virginia.  While Virginia is more a genuine purple state it is still in the category of "if you lost it you probably lost the election anyway" category for Republicans.

But he has good conservative credentials and could solidify support for a more moderate nominee while still having a good demeanor and presence that can reassure moderates.

7) John Kasich.

From a swing state.  Interesting life story.  Engaging personality that may appeal to moderates.  So why isn't he higher?  Can be flighty and unfocused and may just put his foot in his mouth.  Also has a long legislative record waiting to be mined by opposition research.

But Ohio is an important enough state that it could happen.

8+9) Jindal / Haley.  Both raise questions whether they are ready for prime time.  But both are well liked by the base and bring an interesting life story to the table because of their backgrounds.  While not as risky as a Sarah Palin (both would be far less noxious to moderates) like her they are picks that are meant to change the conversation and bring it away from policy and towards personality.  Which can be risky depending on what skeletons might be there.

10) Paul LePage.

My dark horse true Sarah Palin type pick.  He'll excite the living daylights out of the tea partiers.  And simply by being from Maine, his life story, and his style he'll generate great media buzz.  Of course once that buzz disappears it will remain to be seen whether he can do more than Sarah Palin did.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Kasich is also an ass...
There's a good reason why he almost lost last year in a GOP wave.  Ohioans do not like him, why would anyone else?
[ Parent ]
Agree with some of your picks
John "all white cabinet"  Kasich is not going to fly with the general electorate and yes, he is a very  big ass. Scott Walker strikes me as similar to Kasich, probably to out there to be seriously competitive. I honestly don't get what people see in Haley. Yes she is a minority women but not much more. She almost lost in South Carolina in an uber-Republican year plus has ties to Mark Stanford. LePage is just one huge accident.

Mitch Daniel could be very formidable because he can simultaneously position himself as fairly conservative but also a reasonable grown-up. He is much more appealing then Romney ,who I maintain is too much of a douche to ever be any where near the White House . Ditto with Jindal, who in addition to projecting a smart and trustworthy personality, adds much needed diversity to the Republican ticket.
Most of the newly elected governors are too early in their terms to get an accurate measurement on their viability. Again, Walker rubs me the wrong way, especially with a fairly abrasive personality. Martinez could be very beneficial for Republicans to court hispanics but we don't know yet.
 

[ Parent ]
2014 will be a gold mine in governors races.
I suspect besides Scott Kasich and Walker will be among the most vulnerable.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
It all depends on what the nominee is looking for.
I put LePage at 10 admittedly because I didn't really see anyone else that likely and just chose who would most resemble the Palin pick.  Someone who excites the base and gets them motivated.  And is just an interesting figure enough that it would generate buzz.

Now a VP has four possible roles beyond of course "doing no harm" (and yes LePage probably does not fall in that category).  The more roles they can fit, the better.

1) Bring experience like Biden did for Obama and Cheney did for Bush.  Most of the viable Republican candidates will be lacking in foreign policy experience and I expect them to go this route.  Hence I'm betting on a US Senator as a VP pick rather than a Governor.  Though not necessarily an old warhorse.  Could even be a young gun like Rubio.

2) Bring a state like Al Gore did for Clinton (Tennessee) and LBJ did for Kennedy (Texas).  Of course favorite son VP candidates don't necessarily have the best track record in delivering.  Just ask Michael Dukakis about Lloyd Bentsen. (Of course Texas was never going to be his though perhaps with John Glenn Ohio might've been doable)

3) Fits an ideological calculus.  Either for balance (Romney will need a solid right-winger for his VP to prevent a revolt.  Palin on the other hand would be well advised to choose someone without an ideological edge).  Or to reinforce an ideoligcal position (Both Clinton and Gore chose fellow DLC members to reaffirm their centrist positioning).

4) Be an attack dog and rough up the other side.  And this is the most important role.  And what in all our number crunching and game planning we forget about.  A lightly regarded VP candidate (think Nixon or Agnew) is not so bad if they can really slam the opposition effectively.  On the other hand a very highly regarded nominee (think Jack Kemp or Joe Lieberman) is useless if they are too nice or self-conscious of their image to go savagely after the opposition.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Hrm...
1. Mitch Daniels (If he runs in 2012, I fully expect him to make a presidential ticket. Perhaps he doesn't in '12, but, no matter that result, I don't expect anything short of a solid, competent campaign, and he could run again in 2016.)
2. Nikki Haley (Very likely 2012 VP contender, among any nominee's Top 5, possible 2016 presidential contender.)
3. Susana Martinez (Same as Haley, though I don't think Republicans will seriously contest NM.)
4. Brian Sandoval (Samesies, though I bet the GOP would prefer a woman in the #2 slot.)
5. Chris Christie (Won't run in 2012, but, barring a drop in approval or losing re-election, he'll probably run in 2016, where he'd be the front-runner.)
6. Bob McDonnell (Possible 2012 VP contender, but, like Pawlenty in 2008, he's just not an exciting pick; very likely 2016 presidential contender.)
7. Bobby Jindal (He'll be on anyone's shortlist, but the SOTU debacle will probably hold him aback from selection. Could run in 2016, but unlikely to win nomination.)
8. Scott Walker (Possible 2016 contender, esp. if he wins re-election.)
9. Tom Corbett (Same.)
10. Haley Barbour (I think 2012's his one chance to shine. Won't be anyone's VP, but could make a splash if Huckabee doesn't run.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
What do y'all think about
Mary Fallin and Bill Haslam? I might rank them over some of the younger untested governors and super-boring establishment types.

Fallin's got the advantage of exposure to national insiders, executive experience, and inoffensive conservative credentials. It's a good bio for a 2012 VP. She's a bit low profile, but so was Sarah Palin. And she's a known quantity, to boot, so she has that advantage over several other new governors like Haley, Sandoval, Martinez etc. But then again I have a hard time imagining the ticket... Romney/Fallin? Perhaps. Huckabee/Fallin? No. Palin/Fallin? No. Pawlenty/Fallin? Maybe.

If Haslam does well as governor he could be a very attractive candidate for the 2016 ticket, in either slot. Whether warranted or not, he has a bit of that Tennessee "reasonable conservative" credibility that seems to follow Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker around. And he'll only by 58 in 2016. He could be a good match for a Thune or a Pawlenty in the same way that the Clinton/Gore ticket worked.

So maybe something like 1 Daniels, 2 McDonnell, 3 Walker, 4 Martinez, 5 Haslam, 6 Fallin, 7 Barbour (Hail Mary!), 8 Haley, 9 Christie, 10 ummm... Snyder? Man, ten is hard.

25, PA-10

[ Parent ]
I can't fathom anyone selecting Fallin
If the nominee wants a conservative woman, Nikki Haley and Susana Martinez more than suffice and they're from swing-ish states. FWIW, I actually think Fallin could someday attempt a presidential run. Perhaps it's just their similar physical appearances, but she reminds me a lot of fmr. Secretary of Labor Lynn Martin, who explored a presidential bid in 1996.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
One thing I don't see is
Haley doing anything higher than Governor.  There's a reason she had a very underwhelming (for SC) vicotry in a shitty year for Dems.  She's rather dull and underwhelming herself.  She's merely the aggregate of everything Sanford taught her while she worked in his office.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I read
a somewhat interesting article on her in a recent issue of The Atlantic. It kind of confirmed my suspicion that one reason Sheehan got so close was that he benefited (indirectly) from sexism and racism. That's still just a hunch, though. Do you think those things had any effect on the race?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Probably
I remember a GOP state senate using a racial slur against her during the campaign. And Bobby Jindal narrow loss to Blanco in 2003 was attributed to racism which was fueled by Blanco's ads that darkened Jindal's skin. But Sanford also damaged her a lot.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Probably a little.
Like a few percent difference, but I dunno.  I don't study this stuff.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Falin
Weren't there allegations years ago that she had an affair? I'm sure that would keep her out of the Veepstakes.  
[ Parent ]
ok
2012:

1. Daniels. I'm impressed with him, I think independents would like him, and he would probably fare better against Obama than any other Reep.

2. Barbour. Possible running mate for Romney, could win the nomination as a compromise candidate if all the frontrunners implode but would be hopeless in the general.

3. Jindal. Says he isn't running, but if Daniels doesn't run and he changes his mind he would also be plausible.

4. Perry. Says he isn't running, but could end up as a compromise pick if something very strange happens. Also a possible running mate for Romney.

5. Christie. In his first term, but would have 2 full years under his belt. Possible VP for Huckabee.

6. McDonnell. As above, but for Romney.

I'm stopping there, as I don't expect them to go for anyone in the first half of his/her first term after what happened with Palin.

2016 and beyond:

1. Jindal. Moves ahead of Daniels because he's much younger.

2. Daniels.

3. Martinez. Of course she is unproven, but if she does well her appeal for at least the VP position should be obvious. Becomes less attractive if Rubio is on the ticket.

4. Sandoval. As above, but he's a guy.

5. McDonnell. Could emerge as the southern candidate.

6. Christie.

7. Snyder. Says he's not interested IIRC, but if the Reeps lose big in 2012 and decide they really need to move to the center he could be in a nice position.  

8. Haley. Could win if they still want a hardcore conservative, or be a good VP pick for a moderate to provide regional balance and throw a bone to the right. Also very young.

9. Walker. He's just 43.

10. Perry. He'll be 66 but could win if they still want a generic Bush-era Republican.

Corbett will be 67 and I don't see what his hook is, and Kasich puts his foot in his mouth too much.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
David Cicilline speaks on the floor.

Wise to keep banging the drum over jobs while the House GOP is focused on repealing everything and changing the legal definition of rape.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Attention all swingstaters
since I have changed my main email I though I would also change my swingstate username

I was once GayTeen4Obama but I will now go as ImaFreeBetchBabyyy (Lady Gaga reference for those who dont know)

18, Gay Male, NJ-8,Democrat, Lady Gaga Fan

What? Was Don'tBeADragBeAQueen too long?

[ Parent ]
As
much as I love BornThisWay Bad Romance will always be my fav

18, Gay Male, NJ-8,Democrat, Lady Gaga Fan
[ Parent ]
I am a big Lady Gaga fan
 But my favorite song by her is Money Honey, not Bad Romance.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Can
anyone remind me how to do the signature thing in your comments

18, Gay Male, NJ-8,Democrat, Lady Gaga Fan
click on "imafreebetch baby's" page
on the right corner. Then under the "profile" tab you should see the comment signature box

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
[ Parent ]
I'm
not sure where it is because all I see are "Sort by ratings, time, comment display mode, rate comments, and then how to change my password, etc

18, Gay Male, NJ-8,Democrat, Lady Gaga Fan
[ Parent ]
AZ-Sen: Shadegg won't run
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

Definitely helps Jeff Flake if he opts to run.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

hmm
I think Shadegg would be their strongest candidate after Flake, but it doesn't surprise me that he refused to run after his reaction to Kyl stepping down: he basically said "what the hell?" and just said that he hoped Kyl would reconsider. That doesn't sound like someone who's chomping at the bit to return to DC.

Agree, it helps Flake. They are both from the mainstream wing of the party.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
A little ways off but while the map for the 2014 Senate
races is crappy for us the map for the 2014 gubernatorial races looks pretty good. All of the democratic seats are in blue states (besides Arkansas) while republicans are defending many purple and blue leaning states.

2014 Governors Races:

Republicans: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennslyvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming.

Democrats: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont,  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

I don't think its as crappy as you think.
AR - Pryor is more popular than Lincoln; and has already started to become "more in touch" with his state as he watched Lincoln go down... Pryor has 2 million in the bank and also has the name recognition. He's also very religiously conservative.

Alaska - JOE MILLER! PLEASE!

LA - Mary Landrieu raised the third most money (I think!) of any Democratic Senator in the US Senate this last quarter. I also don't believe she's as vulnerable as people says...

But it will really matter how the political wave goes.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Where did you hear
about Pryor getting more in touch?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Ehh, only a few senate races really concern me
for 2014. Who besides Begich, Pryor, Landrieu, and perhaps Franken would be truly vulnerable at this point? It's not clear what Bauchus or Johnson will do, but we have enough time to try to replenish our ranks in those states at that point.

What concerns me more than anything is the seeming lack of pick up opportunities. We'll have to hope Collins is Teabagged in the primary or simply retires. I guess we can hope Graham loses his primary as well. But do we even have strong candidates?

And then what? Can Cornyn in Texas, Chambliss in Georgia, or Alexander in Tennessee be beat?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Thats my point
there are way more democrats up in the seante but way more republicans up in gubernatorial races.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I know.
I was trying to say that while we will face yet another election where have more Democrats up than Republicans, it's kind of deceiving, because a lot of them aren't particularly vulnerable short of a 2010-type year or some sort of scandal. I'm not sure the same sort of situation applies to Republicans. It could, but it's not clear right now.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
We are still more then likely to lose seats though
in the senate. It would be a huge to break even.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
would be huge*


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
I guess so.
But that's why we need to become better at electing Democrats in red states. We're okay at it now, but we can't write off so many of these seats when nothing changes except for the states that are up. I realize we aren't going to get ideal candidates (to most of us, anyway) in a state like South Carolina or Georgia, but we can surely do better than Graham or Chambliss. And while we certainly can't tell what the climate might be like in 2012 let alone 2014, we can be more prepared to actually fight. I know I harp on this a lot, but by expanding the map, we can rebuild or strengthen state parties so that we can compete more effectively. It'll take time and even more so money, but if we have the ability to spread the wealth into deeply red areas in 2012, we should do it. We will certainly need to defend our seats, but won't be sacrificing better pick up opportunities to focus on knocking off strong incumbents in 2012 or 2014. The same can't be said for 2016.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think we should try but
you do have to remember that we have limited resources and way more incumbents to defend (in red/purple and blue states).  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Simple.
Begich, Landrieu and Pryor are probably starting out as underdogs. So does Baucus if he runs for reelection, and I still think he'll do it. Hagan and Shaheen are vulnerable. Johnson and Rockefeller might retire which would make these races instant lean R.
Carl Levin might retire or die, creating an R pick-up chance. You already mentioned Franken. In a good R year Merkley will be vulnerable too.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Vulnerable, yes; Underdogs, it depends
per http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

the ratings for Begich and Landrieu are between those of Michael Bennet and Lisa Murkowski. Yes, they're in tougher states, but '12 will likely be a kinder year to Ds.

Given what happened with Joe Miller, it seems at least a bit more likely that Begich would get a weaker opponent in '14. But that's with the usual "it's a long time from now" provisos.

As for Pryor, I don't see data from my link, but his electoral history is strong.

Unfortunately, Merkley in '08 was awkward on the stump. So your caution on him is warranted.

[ Parent ]
Begich
I'd bet Sean Parnell challenges him. Blanche Lincoln and Russ Feingold also had a strong electoral history. The only was I see Merkley being vulnerable is if Walden runs.  
[ Parent ]
It's no easy decision.
He could likely be far more comfortable in Alaska than having to commute thousands of miles and be away from home often.  That's why I dunno if he will do that.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He has run for Congress before
And he may be term limited in 2014, since he served half of Palin's term.  
[ Parent ]
Based on that
I would expect Begich, Baucus and Landrieu to struggle while Franken, Mark Udall and Merkley have competitive races they go on to win. Shaheen and Hagan have serious work to do as does Mitch McConnell.
[ Parent ]
What's up with Shaheen, Hagan, and McConnell?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
As of the polls
Negative job approval.
[ Parent ]
When was the last
round of polling done? I can't think of anything recent.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Last year
[ Parent ]
That doesn't worry me.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I don't find it right now, but
I think I had a discussion with a non-SSP friend once about if Pryor was stronger than Lincoln and unearthed a 2009 poll showing him with a 66% disapproval rating and something like 27% approval.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
29/46 in Jan 2010
[ Parent ]
Could have been that one.
29/46 is just another expression for 'dead meat'. If Pryor was going to win, it was going to be via personal likability. If just 29% of the state like him, that obviously doesn't work.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
34/25 in Sept 2010
Different poll (Mason/Dixon) -- http://arkansasnews.com/2010/0...

but with the President at 24/55, it suggests that Pryor can significantly outdraw the national ticket.

Don't know if Pryor has/had rehabilitated his image between Jan and Sept.

[ Parent ]
We kind of agree
on the first three, but I am not sure about the others. I don't see what makes Hagan and Shaneen particularly vulnerable. Hagan's state is only becoming bluer, and both she and Shaheen seem perfectly harmless. The seats of the others might be hard to keep if they retire (or die--what the hell was that about?), but there's really no way to tell now what will happen. Also, why is Merkeley particularly vulnerable? His state resisted the wave this year, didn't it?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Simple.
Begich, Landrieu and Pryor are probably starting out as underdogs. So does Baucus if he runs for reelection, and I still think he'll do it. Hagan and Shaheen are vulnerable. Johnson and Rockefeller might retire which would make these races instant lean R.
Carl Levin might retire or die, creating an R pick-up chance. You already mentioned Franken. In a good R year Merkley will be vulnerable too.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Retirements
Lautenberg too. On the other side Thad Cochran might quit but hard to see that being competitive if Obama is still in the White House. Maybe same goes for South Carolina if Graham losses his primary. Susan Collins will only be 61. Chambliss will be 70 which means he likely runs again though Georgia may be more hospitable to Dems by then. On the bright side 2016 should be all offense.
[ Parent ]
What makes you think
that Baucus will be vulnerable? He won with 73% of the vote in '08. Granted, that was a very friendly Democratic year, but my sense of your comment is that you're projecting forward from a very friendly Republican year ('10).

His leadership with HCR could make him vulnerable, but by then the exchanges and subsidies will have already been rolled out, and the bill should be much less of a hot potato, as voters start to see first-hand the benefits it delivers. (Think Medicare Part-D for seniors.)

As for the others you mention: Landrieu is notoriously underestimated from one cycle to the next, and Shaheen is well-known in NH as a former governor and will be tough to dislodge. I doubt that Rockefeller is going anywhere. And why would you single out Levin as one who might die?

[ Parent ]
Baucus
Have you seen his approval ratings?  
[ Parent ]
Yes,
but it's only 2011. He has almost 4 years to recover. And my sense is the hit to his approvals are due to health care reform. That will be an old story in 2 years, let alone 4.
[ Parent ]
Because he's old, overweight, and the
other old Democratic Senators would be replaced by Democrats in special elections (Lautenberg, Inouye, Akaka). Levin, not so sure.

Shaheen didn't win convincingly in 2008, she seriously underperformed Obama who ran against John McCain who is supposed to have been really popular there (and the fact that he beat Romney there when Romney leads the current pack easily by 30+ points suggests to me that it's true).

As for Landrieu, I agree with Nate Silver that 2010 was an 'aligning election' in which finally national issues trumped likability and old traditions in the South. Democrats like Landrieu won on their family names, which won't work in 2014.

Baucus, he's just unpopular with everyone. Republicans for working on Health Care at all, Independents for being an insider in a populist state, Democrats for botching Health Care. You should listen to what Democratic County Party committees or regular campaign volunteers have to say about Max, it's not pretty. I think his approval rating is in the 30's, disapproval in the 50's.

Plus, 2010 did refresh the GOP bench, which was really, really empty before 2010 except for Rehberg and old retreads like Hill.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Baucus
I wonder whats the odds of Steve Daines being a 1-term house member and jumping up to the senate in 2014?  
[ Parent ]
I'm not that impressed by Daines.
He's no Berg. If that worked out, it would be really accidental and a combination of MT Dems 2012 still being too stunned by the monumental 2010 wave to run a serious opponent against Daines (I think that Atty Gen. Bullock could beat him) and Baucus being the most unpopular Democrat in the state in 2014.

Daines would be really vulnerable in 2020 then. But, not saying it couldn't happen. I wonder if Schweitzer would pull Baucus' plug and just force him to retire if that happens. And if Baucus would do it or pull a Lugar on him, it's not like the two are even remotely close.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
The best comparison to Daines is
this guy in Michigan whose name I forget all the time. Something with L, Leuliett or something like that. He's there because he can self-fund, and that's it. The party won't have to spend money on the race. Politically, his only experience is being the running mate of a gubernatorial nominee who went down 38-60 vs. Schweitzer and lost his State Senate seat in 2010 to a Democrat.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
He lost his State Senate seat
in 20-freaking-10 to a Democrat?  Wow, that's embarassing for him, I'm sure.

Also, someone talked up Wendy Williams for the Democratic side.  How does she sound to you?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Oh, you were speaking of Roy Brown.
Yeah, he lost to van Dyk.

Dems did bad in MT House races, but the Senate races were a wash.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I saw that. I doubt that anything will come
off that. Montana is a small state. The wave of endorsements that Rep. Wilmer already got indicates to me that there probably won't be a major opponent in the primary.

Compare that to Sen. Wanzenried's gubernatorial campaign- his announcement was followed by crickets from every Democratic politician in the state. And I happen to know that there's going to be another probable announcement in the tier between Wanzenried and Atty Gen. Bullock- in other words, a more charismatic State Legislator.

And yeah, the 2008 MT gubernatorial GOP nominee lost his State Senate seat in 2010 to a Dem. Without a real scandal, and without being in a very Democratic district- it's more Democratic than Montana, yeah, but compared to the nation just about D+1. It was the most expensive race in MT legislature history, with either candidate raising in excess of $100,000 when the record so far was $70,000 for both candidates COMBINED. I'm proud to have been a part of that campaign, also certainly one of the closest ones in Montana history, with Democrat Kendall Van Dyk winning by 4 votes (0.06%).


18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
How is Wilmer?
Is she a real candidate unlike the sacrificial lambs that ran against Rehberg the past decade?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
My dogs would be more formidable candidates
then the post-2000 candidates that ran against Rehberg. Most of them, Monica Lindeen wasn't that bad, she's State Auditor now, and she was the only one to hold Rehberg below 60%.

Hell, the 2008 candidate fucking endorsed Rehberg after somehow beating our charismatic youngish candidate with military background and fundraising skills in the primary, Alvin Greene style.

Yeah, she's a real candidate. Not top-tier, not glamorous, the race starts out as Lean to Likely R, but if Daines commits any gaffes she's well positioned to take advantage of it.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
He lost his State Senate seat
in 20-freaking-10 to a Democrat?  Wow, that's embarassing for him, I'm sure.

Also, someone talked up Wendy Williams for the Democratic side.  How does she sound to you?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Shaheen "seriously underperformed"?
She won by 7, Obama won by 9. Doesn't seem all that serious to me. She was also running against an incumbent with near-universal name recognition in the state.

In Louisiana, anything can happen in 4 years. Republicans have essentially taken over the state (and practically all elected officials who weren't Republicans have switched), so there's likely to be conservative fatigue after a while. I think she'll be fine.

I'd take the "over" on Baucus' chances in a heartbeat. Sure, he's unpopular in early '11, but people there have voted for him for decades, and will come back to him over time. He's got almost four years to repair the damage. And as I said earlier, health care won't be toxic when he's up. In fact, it will probably be an asset.

[ Parent ]
Maybe near-universal name recognition,
but Sununu wasn't popular and early polls taken before the heat of the campaign really started had Shaheen up 30. In that light, I would say, 7 points is really not much, considering the cycle and the fact that Obama was never especially well-liked in that state and ran against a GOP candidate who was pretty open about considering NH his just about favorite state.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
You are fine predicting

And I think you are so close to the reality again.
[ Parent ]
Shaheen defeated
Sununu by seven points and Obama won the state by about ten points. I don't think Sununu was particularly unpopular at that point or involved in a scandal or anything, so there's really no reason to say she seriously underperformed him.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Again, early polling when Shaheen declared in 2007
showed Sununu down by 20+ points. Some by more than 25 points. Meanwhile McCain was absolutely stomping in the state. That she managed to underperform the guy who had to run against McCain starting out with such a huge advantage suggests to me that the more voters learn about her, the less they like her.

And it's not like the national climate improved for the GOP from 2007 to 2008.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
You aren't making any sense at all.
What does polling taken a year and a half before the election have to do with anything? A lot can change in a week or two, let alone more than a year.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Uh. When the baseline for the campaign was
a Shaheen lead of 20 points against an incumbent, with both candidates having universal name-recognition and the national climate didn't change by more than a couple of points either way, and the election result showed a spread of 7 points then that means that Shaheen pissed 13 points away during the campaign. Not particularly convincing to me, especially as she won't start out 20 points ahead this time.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
It's hardly
surprising that the polls tightened as Shaheen became a candidate and the race dragged on. That's usually what happens.

You are acting as if Obama won the state by more than 20-something points and Shaheen barely scraped by. That's simply not the case. You are inventing a baseline out of thin air.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
No- races are supposed to tighten when one candidate
has inferior name recognition. That was simply not the case here. Sununu was the incumbent. And even your link shows that the consensus in July 2007, after Shaheen filed, was that she led the race by 15-30 points.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Races can also
tighten because of the dynamics of an actual campaign.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yeah, like because one candidate is more competent
than the other... we're getting closer to what I'm saying.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
That could be it,
but of course you've offered nothing to make me or anyone think that's the case. All you've done is insist that she somehow severely underperformed Obama despite finishing two points away, something that could be easily explained by the fact that she was trying to unseat an incumbent who, while not particularly liked, wasn't actively despised.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
And that after see Reid and Bennet winning in 2010...

You have an impressive bad feeling about 2014.

[ Parent ]
I'm talking about vulnerability, not suggesting that
they will all lose. But you don't really want to tell me that Reid and Bennett weren't vulnerable in 2010, and that there never was a possibility they could lose, no?

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
I agree not about some your comment

Begich, Landrieu and Pryor are probably starting out as underdogs. So does Baucus if he runs for reelection, and I still think he'll do it. Hagan and Shaheen are vulnerable. Johnson and Rockefeller might retire which would make these races instant lean R.
Carl Levin might retire or die, creating an R pick-up chance. You already mentioned Franken. In a good R year Merkley will be vulnerable too.

Everyone can die... but I would not think about it as vulnerability if they are not a evident weakness in the health of some senator.

I think Lautenberg will not run again, even if he can end his current term, then, New Jersey can have a competitive race.

I would see vulnerable Begich, Landrieu and Johnson. Someone of them retiring? Maybe, or maybe not.

Baucus and Hagan can be vulnerable too? Maybe. They need to improve a little, but I think they can win. They have few strong potential challengers.

Pryor or Rockefeller give not signs of vulnerability until now. Like Manchin. Everyone have his own place without trouble until now.

I see not vulnerable Shaheen, Franken or Merkley. All them defeat republican incumbents, and it is not sign of weakness. Plus they have not escandals. Plus they run in blue states. Plus they are really few potential challengers what make it competitive. Maybe J Gregg only. We can compare them with senators like B Casey this cycle.

[ Parent ]
Casey is non-controversial and I think pro-life.
Franken tries to stay under the radar, but he won't be able to shake off his reputation as a fire-breather. I mean, come on, you don't win over Independents by engaging in shouting wars with Rush Limbaugh. Merkley is liberal and boring, which is a kind of dangerous combination. Shaheen... well, I talked about that at length above.

Baucus is not just vulnerable, he's in really big trouble. Hagan has net negative approval in a still reddish purple state.

Pryor has a 27-46 approval rating in Arkansas. He could just retire, it wouldn't make a difference, the seat goes Republican either way. Rockefeller will probably win, but in a state like West Virginia I wouldn't be too sure about anything, he supported Health Care Reform, which is absolutely unpopular there.

Levin will be 80 in 2014 and overweight. That's a bit over 'Everyone can die'-tier, more like '20+% chance of a fatality there'.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
+ NH for Dems (though NH and VT still have 2012 to get through)
Also, I'd call NH, CO, MN and maybe OR "purple". The New England states are also quite open to Republican governors.
[ Parent ]
I forgot about the 2 year rule in NH/VT heh.


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Idk if New England is still as open to Republican Governors.
I think 06/10 have really set that states pretty close to their presidential preferences. Most of the states where a D/R Governor is in a Red/Blue state are swing states.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Set states closer*


CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Well, Republicans got reasonably close in all New England states in 2010

[ Parent ]
Yes,
but Rhode Island was close only because of 3-way race and Republican candidates in Vermont and New Hampshire were at least somewhat too conservative for their states. LePage was unvelievably lucky (i am sure he would lose if elections would happen Nov. 7th not 2nd), and Massachusetts - well, it could be without Cahill. Foley was ok and thus we had one of the closest races in generally liberal and Democratic Connecticut..
[ Parent ]
New Hampshire
While you're correct about Brian Dubie in Vermont, John Stephens in NH actually a ran as a fairly moderate Republican. He's certainly less conservative than Kelly Ayotte, John Sununu or Frank Guinta--perhaps Charlie Bass is a good comparison. Stephens lost because Lynch has been a good governor and there was no real reason to fire him. Independents like him because he comes off as pragmatic and sort of above the partisan fray. They gave him a pass and took out their anger on Hodes, Shea-Porter, and the state legislature instead.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Very interesting
I know that Lynch is a strong and popular Governor, but Stephen always seemed to be a conservative to me. As far as i remember - he ran as "conservative alternative" in primaty against Bradley in 2008 in NH-01. May be i am wrong and need to do some research...
[ Parent ]
best Republican year in a looooong time
and Robitaille could only get 1/3 of the vote against a split field...overperformed expectations yes, but that's kind of like saying that it's ok to get a 40 on a test because you were expecting a 30.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
which is why the NE should be considered done realigning
We lost the ME Gov in a three-way which is annoying, but it was offset by picking up VT and CT.  And ME is has the worst smallest population density of any NE state so there's the added rural factor.  I'm not forgetting NH, as it was a shit-show.  But NH is very different from other NE states so we'll have them be our one big exception state, but the pull to the Dems has clearly been there the last decade.
[ Parent ]
The Democratic CPVI of most New England states was greater than the national Republican margin, so "it was 2010" isn't that good of an excuse

[ Parent ]
The House margin was 6.8%
Maine is D+5, so that predicts a loss (and that was a three-way).  Connecticut is D+7, so that predicts a narrow win, which is what happened.  Rhode Island is D+11, but that was a three-way race.  Massachusetts is D+12, and Vermont is D+13.  So I would say that Patrick and Shumlin underperformed (although, again, a three-way in Massachusetts), but not really Malloy, and in Maine and Rhode Island I think you have to assume that the conservative candidate would have been badly beaten in a two-way race, although I am just assuming that right now, don't know if it was polled (but c'mon, Chafee won Providence).

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
It appears that Caprio took mostly from Chafee
The three towns that Caprio won all go for Democrats in anything but a Republican landslide. Especially Central Falls, that is roughly tied with Providence for #1 most Democratic town in the state, usually goes about 80% for Dems or so.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I mean, 34% isn't amazing even in a neutral year
Bush got 40% in 2004 and even McCain got 35%. Most of those Caprio votes would have likely gone to Chafee in a 2-way.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Presumably Chafee got some Republican votes by virtue of his status as a former Republican Senator?
Three-way races need to viewed through those lenses. I mean, you could say that Clinton's 1992 performance was one of the worst Democratic performances in history, using the (mistaken) assumption that Perot voters would have all gone for Bush.
[ Parent ]
Maybe a handful, but idk
that's pretty Charlie Crist logic, wouldn't you say? consider that Chafee nearly got teabagged in 2006, before teabagging was even cool. lots of Republicans who voted for him are leaving the party anyway (and probably provided a good boost to Obama's margin vis-a-vis Kerry) and wouldn't have minded. the true party faithful were probably irked that he left the party and decided to vote for a "real" Republican.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Enough to make the Republican performance seem respectable if nothing else
I mean, Rubio didn't get 50% but polls in the latter stages always showed him beating Crist or Meek in a 1v1.
[ Parent ]
not really
I think you're taking the analogy and running with it. all I wanted to point out was that former Republican does not necessarily mean you get a big chunk of Republican votes. this is especially the case in RI where realignment favors Dems (as opposed to FL where it favors Rethugs) and lots of moderate Republicans would have thought twice about voting for someone like Robitaille who is way too conservative for the state as a whole.

I think you're giving Robitaille too much credit. In a great Republican year he was the first Republican to lose the gubernatorial race since 1994, despite benefiting from a split field. Right now, the Republican brand in RI is probably about where it is in CA. the Republican Party's turn to the right is essentially making it irrelevant in RI outside of local offices.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
My point is not so much about Robitaille but about the state's willingness to elect Republicans to the governorship
The past few elections showed that, the most recent election didn't really refute it.
[ Parent ]
How familiar are you with RI politics?
One thing to note in addition to the fact that RI is a lot more disgusted with Republicans nowadays than it was in the past (both due to the national party and Carcieri), the RI Dem party has put up a lot of shitty candidates for governor the past few elections (like Myrth York, the Jill Long Thompson of RI). In 1994 and 1998 it was also helped by Lincoln Almond being a reasonable Republican. If you think that the RI Republican Party can continue running far-right candidates and continue to have statewide success, by all means be my guest. I look forward to seeing many more humiliating Republican losses in RI in the future.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Crist did get non-trivial Republican support
Rubio, despite his big margin of victory, came in at just below 49% of the vote, which suggests that he lost a good number of Republicans to Crist. Compare him to Portman (57%) and Blunt (54%), both of whom were running in similar situations to Rubio. If it was just him and Meek, Rubio would have consolidated all center-right voters and probably won 55% or so.

With Rhode Island, I guess we'll never know. There may have been some residual Republican support for Chaffee, but considering his comments and actions since 2006, I doubt it was too high. Rhode Island is blue enough that he and Caprio could have gotten their combined 60% with no Republican support at all.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I thought the exit poll showed Crist down to the teens in Republican support
also, your post reminded me--Ken Block, the Moderate Party candidate in RI, very likely drew more D votes than R.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Any Cali state legislature experts?
http://www.presstelegram.com/n...

When I move back to my parents house after school ends in May, it looks like a primary battle for my State Senate seat, which will be vacated by Alan Lowenthal. His ex-wife Bonnie Lowenthal has a big advantage just because Long Beach dominates the district and she represents much of it in the Assembly. I am from Artesia, Assemblyman Mendoza's home, and I was wondering if he has a real shot here.  

27, Dem, CA-39 (home), OR-04 (school)

Dr. Phillips and I
did diaries on the state leg races last year, and I am working on my 2012 California Race Tracker, as well as my own redistricting diaries of the U.S. House and state legislature seats. I don't know how this district will look with the commission in charge (though I suspect they'll make the district as Long Beach-centric as possible), but at least from what I see from SD-27, AD-54, and AD-56, I'm inclined to agree that Bonnie Lowenthal has the advantage, seeing that the 54th overlaps the 27th much more than the 56th, which has little if any overlap.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Soapy
That would make for an interesting twist on the usual family political dynasty. Is their daughter-in-law interested in the Assembly?

32, M, MI-6, Iconoclastic Leftist
[ Parent ]
I think she runs
She's not term-limited on the LB City Council but state legislative seats don't come open that often. It will probably be a crowded primary as this is a pretty safe district.

27, Dem, CA-39 (home), OR-04 (school)
[ Parent ]
We have top 2 now though
I don't want the field to be so crowded that the Dem vote is split enough to allow 2 Republicans to advance.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Good point
I think the State Assembly district will probably be around 60-40 Dem so if you had 4 candidates get like 15 percent in the top 2 primary that would be a problem. It will be interesting to see if there will be field clearing if more than 2 candidates run.

27, Dem, CA-39 (home), OR-04 (school)
[ Parent ]
CA legislature turnover due to redistricting
I think there will be big turnover next time because of this rule of the new Prop 11 Commission:
"The place of residence of any incumbent or political candidate shall not be considered in the creation of a map."
And you must live within your leg. district (unlike Congressmen).
So if the commission's brand new non-gerrymandered lines are outside of where you live, some people might think twice about running again (or having to move) just for that term-limited job in Sacramento.
[ Parent ]
Just voted in Chicago...
Voted at my early voting station in the 44th Ward on the North Side...Rahm for Mayor, Tom Tunney for Alderman.

The mayoral race was pretty much the only contested race for me; Tom Tunney - Chicago's only openly gay alderman - has repped the 44th Ward alderman for a long time...he gets my vote if only for his neighborhood restaurant chain that serves great hangover-busting food.

Ann Sathers?

[ Parent ]
Absolutely.
Where else do you get two large cinnamon buns...as one of two sides?  I've never worked up the ambition to ask for cinnamon buns and cinnamon buns as my sides.

Give me two of those, a glass (or quart) of OJ, and a chorizo omelet, and I'm over a night in Wrigleyville or on Halsted.

[ Parent ]
Never heard of this place...
does it not exist south of Fullerton?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Nope.
There are three in Lakeview (Belmont and Sheffield, Roscoe and Southport, Roscoe and Broadway) and one in Andersonville (Clark and Foster).
[ Parent ]
So far!
if this place is that good, I hope they at least expand down to the Loop! Aside from one trip to Boystown, I don't think I've ever really been up in that area.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Matters for two reasons
Senate races and embarrassing Rasmussen.

http://www.foxnews.com/project...

Wow
Those are some strong numbers for BHO. Closest head-to-head is Huckabee at -6.
[ Parent ]
To nitpick
Obama leads Huck by 8. Romney is closest at -7.

Remember this a poll of registered voters not likely voters. If Dems come out like in 2008 then Obama is in good shape, if Dems stay home....

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
As a reminder, McCain lost by 7%
Romney seems to be capable of keeping it that close, and maybe Huck too... although if those poll numbers hold I'd assume Obama picks up Arizona and Montana against Huck and Missouri (and maybe Georgia) against Romney, while maybe losing Indiana to Romney.

Romney's appeal is similiar to McCain, while Huck's will be more passionate in the Confedracy but weaker in the rest of the country, so he'll underperform in the Electoral College.

[ Parent ]
RV
Last cycle we knew Dems were in deep trouble long before the switch to LV. And remember the PPP hybrid model shows similar numbers across the board.  
[ Parent ]
Weak numbers for Jeb Bush
Not that that's going to stop nitwits from thinking he ought to get in this thing.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Those are extremely weak numbers for Jeb
He's in Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich territory and even I can say with a straight face he is absolutely much more deserving than that.  But, I've also always thought his brother permanently ruined him ever getting to run.  Jeb can wait and wait all he wants, but this county will remember George Bush for a long, long time.  By the time enough voters have died off and the circle of life has happened, Jeb will already have missed his window by at least a decade.

Jeb should just give it up, he's too old at this point and the name too damaged.  His brother over-saw/caused the Great Recession for fuck sake.

[ Parent ]
it only took 8 years to forget G H W Bush
people have short attention spans, no matter how bad things get.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
George H W Bush was not a miserable failure
W was.

People do not have a short memory about some things, like which restaurant they got sick at.  Same here. Geore W Bush makes people sick.

This should answer once and for all the rather absurd assertions some made prior to the 2010 elections.... however much Obama is not popular, Gearge W Bush is loathed to a degree far far far far far greater.

[ Parent ]
Depends on who you talk to
We all know there is a sizable minority of the American population that practically foams at the mouth whenever President Obama's name is mentioned. But I guess you're talking in terms of opinion polls.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
George HW Bush
was not nearly as bad in the role of President as his son. Not even close. Sure, people were upset that he promised not to raise taxes and then did, and that he did nothing much to get the country out of a recession and didn't seem to give a damn that people were suffering, but he presided over a war that, to American voters, was judged to be successful and of limited duration, and the George HW recession was nowhere near as bad as the GW Bush near-depression.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
HW is the greatest warning point for Obama

[ Parent ]
Especially since the '92 Democratic field was just about as flimsy as the likely '12 GOP landscape
Paul Tsongas? Doug Wilder?! Jerry Brown?!?! Yeah, there's Bill, but he was about the only decent candidate in that field.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Clinton would be Huntsman or perhaps Daniels
But at that point Democratic primary voters wanted a winner after three straight defeats and were open to somebody who bucked party orthodoxy. I'm not sure Republicans are anywhere near that stage.
[ Parent ]
Which suggests they'd be strong in '20 or '24
assuming a D is elected to succeed President Obama in '16.

(both Huntsman and Daniels are certainly young enough)

[ Parent ]
In what sense?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
It's becoming increasingly hard to see any of these clowns...
Threatening President Obama in any way unless there's a major plot twist down the pike.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
All bets
are off if the economy red lines again though. But if the economy is doing better and voters sense it, your statement is true. Though Mitch Daniels would be a hard person for Obama to beat economy good or not. The rest of the field is damaged goods.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
The economy has always been doing better
and it seems really unlikely it'll flat-line.  Corporations have been making record profits for quite some time, they just aren't hiring because they know how to make profit with less staff now.  I think Obama will be fine.  I hope Newt's the nominee; I want a blow-out but seeing Palin be the first female nominee and get obliterated would be so sad.
[ Parent ]
Maybe, but as an Indiana resident ....
Mitch is a mixed bag.  I don't completely hate him as my governor (notice how I said "completely"!), but I think there are some real things that would make it difficult for him to get the Republican nomination.

1 -- He really doesn't seem to care about social issues.  In fact, he recently said that the GOP needs to basically ignore them to win elections.  Now, if he does run, he may talk them up, but his record in Indiana is a blank slate -- he's done nothing for or against abortion or gay rights or any of the hot button issues.

2 -- The GOP faithful will like him for the fact that he's tried to privatize everything that isn't nailed down (my biggest problem with the job he's done so far as my gov), but at the same time, one of the very first things he said when he was elected in 2004 was to propose a one-year tax increase on the really rich to close the budget gap.  Nothing came of it, and it's a minor issue -- but in a Republican primary that's going to be a race to the right, this will be used against him.

3 -- I REALLY, REALLY hate to bring this up, but Mitch Daniels is Arab-American.  The GOP has proven very effective at running racist whispering campaigns (just ask John McCain about South Carolina 2000), and in a heated campaign, I would not at all be suprised if this comes up.

4 -- He has the personality of a potted plant.

All of that said, you're right -- Mitch Daniels does have a lot of things going for him -- and if he really does run for Presidnet, he's going to burnish his right-wing bona fides while being my governor for the next stretch of time.  Lucky me!!!!!

[ Parent ]
I really think that Daniels will be sunk by his position on tax increases
Proposing any sort of tax increase as a component of balancing the budget is absolute heresy to the Republican Party as a whole right now. Even if Daniels tosses everything he knows about fiscal policy out the window and starts talking about foreign aid cuts and "austerity", his more...uh...flamboyant opponents (Palin, Gingrich, Barbour, or Bachmann, God help us) will have a ready-made attack when looking at the tax increases Daniels tried to pass in his first year as governor.

Everything else could be damaging, I think, but that's all ultimately secondary.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
As usual, your take on Indiana politics is spot-on, Bob!!!!

[ Parent ]
I don't know about that...
What I'm thinking about now, though, is the latest bill moving through the General Assembly that would advance putting an amendment into the state constitution restricting marriage to "one man and one woman". Daniels doesn't (and hasn't, to my knowledge) have anything to do with the intermittent Republican legislative attempts to ban gay marriage beyond having played a role in allowing them to take the House majority last year... but say he runs for President. Does he try to pick up some credibility with the social conservatives by going "Look, look! We're also making people second-class citizens in my state, too!"?

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Good point
He only has the bully pulpit in terms of the amendment process -- but does he use it?  I unfortunatly think it's a foregone conclusion that without Pat Bauer in the Speaker's chair, this is eventually going to go to Hoosier voters, and pass after an ugly, gay-baiting effort by the bigoted Right in this state.

But, Lilly will speak against it, as with Anthem and all the other corporate intersts in the state (as they did the last time the General Assembly considered this) -- and those folks are Daniels' people.  What does he do?

And it's issues like this that scare the living shit out of me when I think about the current General Assembly and a Governor Pence!!

[ Parent ]
What about his time as OMB head?
I wonder what, if anything, has yet to be discovered.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Number 3
Did not know that. Would he be the first Arab-American president?  
[ Parent ]
As far as I know, he would be
I believe one side of his family is originally from Syria.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Also
former senator John Sununu (R-NH) is part Arab-American I believe. Daniels doesn't look the part so I highly doubt any whisper campaign could take hold. But you never know....especially since Allen West was cheered at CPAC tonight when he took aim at the evils of "Multiculturalism." This actually reminds me of an article I read in the Chronicle today detailing how thanks to interracial marriages, Asian-Americans are genetically becoming less and less Asian. Its a worth a good read in my opinion.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I read about that
over on Huffpost.  So much for the whole "melting pot" ideal.  Then again, it's not surprising after West spoke his opposition to those "Coexist" bumper stickers.  He is truly Pat Buchanan reincarnate.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
If I ever get elected to something and I spend time talking about my 'opposition' to a bumper sticker
My constituents ought to fire me with all haste.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Yes
I think it's his paternal grandparents that were from Syria.  He doesn't make a big deal of it, but doesn't shy away from it, either, and has spoke before Arab American groups several times.

And he is typical of Arab Americans (like the Sununu family, Darrel Issa, Ralph Nader, Nick Rahall) in that something like 70% of them are Christian.

[ Parent ]
That's extraordinarily weak tea to call him "Arab-American"......
Normally being one-quarter something other than white doesn't qualify one as a member of that one-quarter group in most American's cultural view.  Historically in the South being one-quarter black counted you as "black," that was always a big exception.

And I vaguely recall that for certain purposes of federal law, perhaps benefit programs of some kinds, being one-quarter Native American or even less can get you counted as a member of a tribe.  I can imagine being at least one-quarter Hispanic potentially could count the same, although I don't really know.

But for purposes of how Americans, particularly white Americans, view race and ethnicity, being one-quarter non-European is still "white," and I think even for black Americans in this day and age, being one-quarter black and three-quarters white would count as "white" in many white people's eyes.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Both paternal grandparents are from Syria.
So he's half Arab (but third-generation).
[ Parent ]
Oh, 2 of 4, OK, that actually was clear further above but bad math by me......
So yeah, half-Arab counts for something.

But Republicans will give him a pass.  His name is "Mitch Daniels," he's white by all appearances, and he's Christian.  So they'll discount "Arab."

Understand with my brown south Indian skin probably 99% of Republicans are more likely to guess I'm Arab than guess Mitch Daniels is Arab.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
You're probably right
As I discussed yesterday, there's easier (and less morally bankrupt) routes of attack against Daniels. At the same time, though, I have to agree with IndianaProgressive that the McCain incident in South Carolina back during the 2000 primaries aptly demonstrates that some people are willing to sink to just about any low.

I can kind of picture Glenn Beck arguing that Daniels is some sort of sleeper agent for the New Islamic Caliphate.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Beck
Yep, multi-pronged attack. The fact he proposed higher taxes proves it!
[ Parent ]
Arabs
All Arabs are Caucasian and the majority of Arabs in America are Christian.
[ Parent ]
Re Arabs as "Caucasian," not to white Americans they're not......
Strictly speaking certain peoples of India, largely in north India, also are Caucasian.  Maryland House Majority Leader Kumar Barve once told me the story of how his maternal grandfather, a rare Indian immigrant in the early 20th century, came to Schnectady, New York and got a local judge to agree to let him live in an all-white neighborhood on the argument that strictly speaking he was actually genetically Caucasian!

But that needle-threading by Kumar's grampa aside, what matters in American politics is race and ethnicity as those things are understood socially, not genetic heritage.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Arab Americans are White Americans
Have you ever actually met an Arab American?
[ Parent ]
Rahall
He also was a founder of the Arab-Americans for Obama coalition that his 2010 opponent tastelessly used against him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
An incumbent president in a good economy
Isn't going to lose no matter how good the opponent.
[ Parent ]
That's really the key, isn't it?
We don't know how good the economy will be, especially after the Republicans in Congress take President Obama's ill-advised pre-compromised, cut budget and savage it. Call it the Disinvestment Bill.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Then
it gets fixed up some in the Senate, which then forces a compromise between the chambers.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It already cuts things like aid for heating for poor people
The Republicans will make it worse. And the point here isn't for me to argue about policy per se, but to point out that cutting government spending, especially spending that goes to those who have little or no disposable income and will spend it all for necessities, is harmful to a weak economy and likely to harm incumbents, and especially the party in control of the Presidency, at the polls. We already saw that happen in 2010, and it could easily happen again in 2012.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
2010
was not because of these matters.  The GOP were the ones blocking UI benefits for pete's sake.

Also, that cut for energy subsidies will likely be made.  A few moderate Republicans have come out against it.

I think the final deal will look like his proposal mixed with some superficial changes.  He's tailoring it so that the House GOP won't brush it aside as "more of the same."

I'll wait for the whole thing to be revealed before I judge it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
I mean
probably won't be made.

Sadly, with a GOP House, the President has to make a proposal they will actually read as opposed to just flat out ignoring it.  Once it gets to the Senate is where the budget wars will begin.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
The realist strikes again!
But I think it is more for public consumption. It shows he is serious about working with the other side. It would be a complete waste of time to offer a pie in the sky spending spree first up. The last thing Obama needs is to look as unreasonable as the GOP.
[ Parent ]
Doesn't this proposed budget call for tax increases?
If that's the case, I hardly think it's anything beyond a very vague first offer. It's similar to a lot of bills that are being talked about--the Cap Act, replacing the individual mandate--which seem to be for little but show.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yes, it calls for ending tax breaks for oil companies
And while that's a good idea, it does nothing to counteract the ill effects of putting less money into the pockets of the unemployed and working poor.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
My point wasn't to defend
what the administration was proposing. It was to suggest that these proposals aren't particularly serious. After all, the Republicans are supposedly rejecting what the administration has offered already.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Playing the long game
People want budget cuts. He has to find them somewhere while knowing the GOP will reject it anyway. This way he looks like the adult urging passage of a moderate package instead of the drastic slashing on the other side.
[ Parent ]
Chicago-Mayor: Chico banking on a Moseley Braun comeback
http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

The Chico strategy: hope Moseley Braun regains her standing among the black vote, forcing Emanuel to again slip beneath the 50% mark. However, Chico doesn't want Moseley Braun to garner ENOUGH of the black vote for her to overtake him for the runner-up slot. FWIW, Moseley Braun is holding rallies in the coming week with the likes of Jesse Jackson, Cornel West and Bobby Rush.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

SoS Jesse White endorsed Emanuel
a couple days ago, saying something like Emanuel would be a better mayor and that White wouldn't simply endorse a black consensus candidate. Certainly a slap for CMB.

Chico strategy obviously must be to keep Emmanuel <50%.
I'm not sure trying to enable a Braun mini-comeback will do the trick, though. She's made way too many missteps,  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Chico probably should try to pull Emanuel's numbers down by playing on the wealthy outsider how-Chicagoan-is-he-really theme.  But it may be too late since Jeffmd commented above that early voting has started.

[ Parent ]
the Tano feeling out a bid
HLS sec janet napalitano is feeling out a senate bid, despite having a net -15 popularity in AZ according to PPP.  

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Ron Paul wins CPAC straw poll
Texas Rep. Ron Paul: 30 percent
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney: 23 percent
Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson: 6 percent
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: 6 percent
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich: 5 percent
Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty: 4 percent
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann: 4 percent
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels: 4 percent
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin: 3 percent
Former talk show host Herman Cain: 2 percent
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: 2 percent
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum: 2 percent
South Dakota Sen. John Thune: 2 percent
U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman: 1 percent
Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour: 1 percent
Others: 5 percent
Undecided: 1 percent

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

Not bad for Romney, but so weak for Gingrich, Bachmann, Cain, Santorum. Honestly, it's a result like this which should make Cain the first drop-out of the GOP primary season haha.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Surprising...
Look at that Huckabee number, too. And Johnson at #3?

I wonder how good of a sample this is- has anyone ever done a study of how well CPAC has predicted the primary winners?

I guess this confirms how big of a mess it's going to be.

[ Parent ]
The winner never wins
other than that, I'm not sure
[ Parent ]
Only one clear conclusion here....
Good news for Romney.
[ Parent ]
Johnson getting third
is odd considering they literally "played him off the stage" 15 minutes into his speech. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Perhaps pro-pot people somehow managed to remember to vote.

[ Parent ]
When combining first and second choices
Johnson does even better, which I suppose means he's most of the Paulists second choice but is some of the Paulists first choice and the place was full of Paulists.
[ Parent ]
Does CPAC even mean anything?


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
To be clear, I'm questioning the importance of the straw poll.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
It means something if you are one of the "others"
on the more conservative side of the spectrum and trying to fundraise.

Oh, and it also means the Paulists will be mucking up the PPP "what to poll" votes for the forseeable future.

[ Parent ]
So much for the Donald Trump boomlet
But it doesn't really mean anything.
[ Parent ]
Trump wasn't on the ballot
If he were, I'd wager he'd place Top 5.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
AZ-SEN, NV-SEN
Obviously I'm very interesting in the open Arizona Senate seat and would love to see a run from Gabby if she's up to it. One interesting side effect that of this shooting is that it took away the strongest argument a primary opponent could make against her: that she's not well known outside of Baja Arizona. She now probably has near universal name-rec in the state and likely has a very positive public persona from a mix of the sympathy factor and the positive biographical information about her that has been built into reporting on the incident. I don't doubt for a second that she would have much preferred to introduce herself to voters in the state the old fashion way, a style of retail campaigning that she loves. However, if she has the health and the drive for a Senate campaign, a new opportunity for her has certainly emerged from the tragedy.

As far as Nevada, I've heard very little about this race in the past few weeks but I really hope we keep the heat on Ensign. I also don't think it's game over if we end up running against Heller; if Obama ends up leading the ticket with a double-digit win, that's a lot of voters to convince to cross over.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

Fox polling
"It's worth noting that Fox News is pairing two pollsters, Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), for their polls. They're also now calling people with cell phones." http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Finally, the cell phone polling flaw is being taken into account.
Also, Fox is going with bi-partisan pollsters, one D and one R? What, is Scotty out the door?

Rasmussen
Do a crappy job and you get fired.
[ Parent ]
Chris Bowers tweets
thers's an effort, or at least an attempt to start an effort, to recall Scott Walker.  
Don't blame them.
He is threatening to violate state workers' contracts and pit the national guard on them if they strike.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Really?
He's going to have the national guard open fire on striking state workers? That's a bridge too far.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I don't know if that's what he meant
"We are fully prepared and equipped to handle whatever may occur. But again, you plan for the worst and you expect the best. And I expect from the good men and women who work for state and local government that they're going to continue to do the good professional job they do each and every day,"  according to Walker.

Most of the coverage has said the mention of the National Guard is in relation to the possibility of state correctional workers perhaps initiating a strike action. That's probably what Walker had in mind, but it's an ignorant thing to say at all when you consider this nation's long and honorable history of using the Army, the police, or private detectives to forcibly break strikes.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
No, not to open fire.
What Bob Bobson said.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Are you sure it was Bowers?
I can't find any reference to that on his twitter page.
[ Parent ]
yeah
ThisBowers Chris Bowers
Seriously Scott Walker. You are so going to get recalled before the end of your term. You will be a national laughingstock. #WIGov

ThisBowers Chris Bowers
Getting 500K to sign a petition to #recall Scott Walker as #WIgov in #2012 will not be hard.

ThisBowers Chris Bowers
Well, Scott Walker will cease to be #WiGov as soon as it legally possible. And that is 2011 or 2012. Not 2014. It's gonna happen. #recall

ThisBowers Chris Bowers
Hey Scott Walker, you won't be Governor when this year ends. You heard it here first. #recall #WIgov

[ Parent ]
Unless he's done something criminal, he shouldn't be recalled.
I don't know anything about Scott Walker, it sounds like he's acting like a douche (big surprise there), but either way, recalls should be a tool to remove ethically-compromised, on-their-way-to-jail politicians. Our political discourse has become so bad that there has to be talk of recalling people just because they don't like what they're dong. See the attempted recall of the Omaha mayor earlier this month, or the unsuccessful attempt to recall Bob Menendez.
[ Parent ]
what's scary is how the Omaha recall almost succeeded


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
And see California circa 2003


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
If there's a specific state law provision for it, then go for it......
After CA-Gov in 2003 and the wingnuts' attempt on Lautenberg last year, it's fair game to turn it against them in my book.

But I have no idea if Wisconsin law actually provides for a "recall" of an elected Governor or other elected officials.  If not, then this is a foolish waste of time that should be spent instead on lobbying elected officials and public opinion on the actual governing issues in play.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Fair game?
Perhaps. Also extreme hypocrisy.
[ Parent ]
Meh, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Hypocrisy seldom sells as an attack......
Hypocrisy in politics is everyday and routine, especially coming from Republicans and conservatives, and yet they seldom pay any price for it.  So lesson learned, just play to win.

Again, I have no idea if this recall petition is just a tool to make noise or if Wisconsin law actually provides for recall.  But if the law allows it, then go for it.  It worked in a Democratic state against a Democratic Governor who did not do anything illegal or unethical in office or otherwise embarrass the state; people were just unhappy with governance generally.

One should not take the high road in politics if voters refuse to reward it, and reward the low road instead.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin does allow recalls.
http://www.ncsl.org/default.as...

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I would rather beat them cleanly
Than join them. Water is too expensive these days for all the showers that would be needed.
[ Parent ]
Oh
I love your Hickenlooper reference right there.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Sorry
They voted for him knowing full well the implications. They have the opportunity to toss him out in 2014.
[ Parent ]
I'm inclined to agree


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
hmm, well they're gonna be surprised
when they find out their "base" isn't entirely supportive of a recall. How will they blame it on Obama or the Democratic Party?  
[ Parent ]
New Hampshire
Magellen (R), LV. Obama 50-44 approve. Leads Romney 48-44.

http://nhjournal.com/2011/02/1...

Jeez, that's some turnaround
he was below 40% late last year.  
[ Parent ]
Exit poll in November was 46/48

[ Parent ]
Thanks, good find, and I see political journalism fails again in explaining a poll......
The poll has Obama beating Romney 48-44, which writer Shawn Millerick of NH Journal proceeds to call a "statistical tie."

Note to everyone:  there is no such thing as a statistical tie.  There can be an actual tie, or a lead within the margin of error (which means a percentage lead twice the percentage margin of error since the margin of error applies to each data point separately, not to the margin between the compared data points), or a lead outside the margin of error (which mean a percentage lead more than twice the margin of error).  There is no "statistical tie."

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Need to learn to proofread, a typo in my parenthetical immediately above......
I meant in the parenthetical to say a lead within the margin of error means "a percentage lead NO MORE THAN twice the percentage margin of error...".

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
That is my single biggest pet peeve
about political journalism. When Obama spent most of 2008 up against McCain in the key races, they kept having to dredge up that statistical tie non-sense. It was especially false and odious when you would have say 20 national polls in a week where Obama was up between 2-5 points, yet each individual poll was reported as a statistical tie. When there is one poll, it's not a "statistical tie," but there is uncertainty. When there are 20 polls, we have enough certainty to know that he's up.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
While highly debatable, "statistical tie" is used by --some-- statisticians
http://www.oswego.edu/~srp/sta...

In short, a statistical tie is a polling result for which the difference between two (or more) candidates is of the nature we would expect sampling error alone to reasonably explain.

otoh

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...

The terms "statistical tie" and "statistical dead heat" are sometimes used to describe reported percentages that differ by less than a margin of error, but these terms can be misleading

snip

The survey results also often provide strong information even when there is not a statistically significant difference.

I'd think a better description would be "statistically insignificant lead," but that sounds even more nerdy, which would probably lose beats and jobs for reporters in the popular press.

[ Parent ]
There's a specific reason why "statistical tie" is incorrect......
The problem is that most people perceive "margin of error" to mean that a candidate's voting support is equally likely to be anywhere along the range of error, so that, say, if a candidate is at 44% with a 3% margin of error, then 41 and 47 each is as likely as 44.

But that's not true.  In fact, the probabilities across the range of error are a bell curve, with the middle result, which is the reported one, always having the highest probability.  The probability of other values within the margin of error decrease in both directions from the middle, so that, in the example above, 41 and 47 have much lower probabilities of being accurate than 44.

But calling a particular trial heat result a "statistical tie" just ignores the probability bell curve and perpetuates the myth.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
In a world with perfect polling methodologies
you'd be completely correct.

But we know there are and have been problems, e.g. undersampling Hispanics in NV, Japanese-Americans in HI, etc.

And the perfect polling methodology of today may not apply in '12; e.g. I suspect the cell phone issue will be bigger in the coming cycle.

Since statisticians don't know the extent / degree of error, they neglect it in calculations. Given the "moving target" I think it's incorrect to assume a gaussian distribution.

[ Parent ]
But those types of sampling errors don't affect the fact of the bell curve......
The probabilities fall along a bell curve regardless of sampling problems.  The science of statistical sampling assumes up front the sample is random and representative, and any problems with that affect all the mathematical results, not whether there's a gaussian distribution across the range of error.  If the sample has a problem, the distribution of probabilities across the range of error is not what's messed up, rather all the data is messed up.  At least that's how I understand the science.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
My understanding is different
that such problems tend to bias a bell curve towards one end or another -- because the "missing" elements would normally fall towards one side of the curve.

It's like each demographic has its own bell curve that gets combined into the whole, e.g.

  ll
 l  l
l    l
l      l

plus

         mm
        m  m
       m    m
      m      m

plus

         nn
        n  n
       n    n
      n      n

plus

              pp
             p  p
            p    p
           p      p

If there's a demographic that's partially lacking, that part of the "hill" is lower than it should be.

Unless that subsidiary bell curve has the same mean as the whole, the result is a bias in the curve.

In other words, it doesn't matter so much if demographics m or n are under/over sampled.

But a problem with demgraphics l or p (e.g. hispanics in NV or japanese americans in hawaii) would bias the curve -- removing the smoothness on one side of the bell

thus introducing bias into the result.

[ Parent ]
Whoa, at least as big as Obama's strength in the poll is the gay marriage support!......
They have likely 2012 NH voters opposing repeal of gay marriage by a whopping 56-35!  I always expect that a lot of people in a given state are much more OK with gay marriage in hindsight than prospectively (as proven in states that have legalized it), but this is a huge margin...big enough to make state lawmakers pause, I would hope.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Old news
There was a poll last week (UNH. . .) that said roughly the same thing. I think 51% said they would be very upset if it were repealed.

Hard to game this out, but the last I checked, Lynch had appointed the entire NH Supreme Court. That might be of considerable relevance.  

[ Parent ]
Well NH gay marriage was enacted through statute, not court rulings, so...
...the political composition of the courts is of less significance.  If homophobes have a veto-proof majority to repeal it, it's hard to imagine a way to challenge repeal in court.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Well, there appears to have been
no litigation on the subject at all in New Hampshire. In this context, I think a marriage suit's prospects as an issue of first impression could be quite good.  
[ Parent ]
Obama definitely wins here with a 50% approval
Below 47% and things get shaky. And, as showcased by this poll, it's really only Romney who puts this into play. Perhaps a Huntsman or Giuliani would do the same, but a right-winger will easily turn this into a double-digit Obama victory.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Good poll shows why "approval" should be ignored
Obama is 52/44 "favorable", +8.  This compares with Romney being +3 and Huck +1.

It doesn't matter at all Obama's approval.  The challengers can't have comparable approvals, but they do have comparable favorbales.  In this case, Obama is much "favored" than his opponents.  This is reflected by beating Romney by four and Huck by a 13 point wipeout.

Any poll or punditry that focuses on "approvals" when discussing electability is fatally flawed.  People run against an opponent.  What matters is all relative.  There are a lot of people in this country who would not "approve" of Prez Romney or Prez Obama, but they will choose which one sucks less.

The GOP's problem here is even a nice enough, not negatively "favorable" guy like Huck gets wiped out worse than McCain, now, before a throatslitting series of primaries.  If Romney is the nominee, he's going to be ripped to shreds by other Republicans for months, and no way will his favorables be able to stay unchanged, let alone improve to Obama levels.

[ Parent ]
CA-36: Assembly Speaker John Perez backs Hahn
http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

I'm kinda shocked by this. Hahn doesn't have a very good electoral track record, but i do think she's perfect for this district. Does this make Debra Bowen less likely to run? Bowen served in the State Assembly, but this was way before Perez was elected to the Assembly.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

Eh, it's a mixed bag.
Bowen would be awesome as a Rep., but she is doing very, very well as SoS.  How does Hahn compare to Harman politically?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I agree
about Bowen's superior skills as SoS and it would be very difficult to fill that gap when/if she runs for Congress. Hahn isn't a firebreather like Marcy Winograd (Harman's primary opponent last year) , but definitely doesn't have the smell of a Conservadem like Harman, just your average Generic D candidate.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
[ Parent ]
In Bowen's first SoS term,
I think she got her major goal of election integrity done. Namely getting rid of the evil Diebold and e-voting machines without paper trails from CA.
And that was against the wishes of many CA county election clerks (who are the ones who actually run elections and buy the voting equipment), forcing them to change.

With that hard work mostly done, her 2nd SoS term isn't as critical as her initial election was.
I'm sure Jerry Brown can appoint a competent SoS replacement if Bowen should win CA-36. (Hopefully he'd consult with Bowen on good replacement choices).

[ Parent ]
Something I'm working on.
Looks fun, doesn't it? I'm done with drawing, but I have to look at how it actually turned out, I didn't look much for politics while drawing, the only thing I did was carving out a couple of interesting VRA districts, such as African-American districts in Syracuse and Rochester and two Asian-majority districts in Chinatown.

NY 500 districts


18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

500 districts? Can't wait to see.
That would be very representative government.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
1,000 districts in California!
I think I'll try my hands at that one.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Yup, technically, 498, because
stuff like a 50,000 voting district upstate when the target for districts was 39,000 made it impossible to redistrict with exactly 500 districts, but that was the idea. I'll have to tabulate and screenshot everything in the next days.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
connecticut 2006 nominating convention results
does anyone have the results from the connecticut nominating convention from 2006?  lamont lost to lieberman, but by better than expected correct?  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Yeah
Lieberman 1004 66.5%
Lamont 505 33.5%

He needed 15% to force the primary.

http://www.eschatonblog.com/20...

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)

[ Parent ]
thank you very much
it's for an article i'm doing and i couldn't find it online.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
CA special election
this is just for fun, but any chance r's will try to run Orly Taitz?  after the last few weeks of hard news and middle eastern upheaval, i think we all need a softer news cycle.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
She lost the SoS primary last time
[ Parent ]
She also lives in Orange County
but given that her party has Dan Lungren and Tom McClintock, that'd only make her a carpetbagger-lite.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
you're treating this as though logic applies
it would be a vanity run of epic proportions.  chance of winning, residency, coherence, would be irrelevent.  I imagine this as a nut screaming about birth certificates, one world government, and an obamanist takeover of the cheeseburger network (because why the hell not?).  I say, run the lunatic, so the hard, insane wing of the republican party have a standard bearer and everyone else gets a laugh.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I mean, she could run, but she'll never win the nomination
She has name recognition with the California GOP, which is precisely why the rank-and-file coalesced around the unknown Damon Dunn. If Orly Taitz was some birther who'd never done the talk show circuit, perhaps more Republicans would've simply checked her name off. Alas, everyone knows she's poison. Speaking of Dunn, I bet he runs and could well win the nomination.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
AZ-Sen: Jeff Flake is in
Good on him.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Bad News for Dems
I think he's probably the most formidable person the Republicans could put up.  However, I think there is a chance his immigration stance might make it hard to get through the primary.  I hope that's the case.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Strongest possible Republican candidate.
Solid conservative, but more of libertarian style then social one. What Arizona usually likes. If he is nominee he is at least initially favored.
[ Parent ]
With one caveat.
He is against SB1070.  That's the kind of libertarianism that AZ Republicans are stridently opposed to.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
True.
I don't doubt that the state is still sufficiently friendly to Republicans that he'd probably start out as the favorite, especially if he's more well known than his Democratic challengers. But before we move him into his new office, can we at least do a poll or two to see what happen?

Perhaps I am seeing the same sort of comments from the same people, but it seems like there's a nagging belief that 2012 and beyond will be like 2010, almost without question. Somehow, Democrats in liberal or center-left states are always endangered even if they are in similar positions to Republicans in conservative or center-right states, who of course aren't so vulnerable.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Agree
But still i don't see "real right wing" opposiyion to him in primary
[ Parent ]
Did you see "real right wing" opposition to Mike Castle or Lisa Murkowski or Charlie Crist in 2009???......
We just came out of a cycle where real right-wing opposition proved much stronger than anyone imagined.  And by all appearances they haven't let up one bit.

Swing voters have let up their anti-Democratic anger, as demonstrated by Obama's strong rebound, but swing voters don't vote in Republican primries (and didn't last year).

It's possible there ends up not being a credible right-wing challenger to Flake, or that there are too many so as to split the anti-establishment primary vote, or maybe Flake postures effectively to win over the teabaggers in spite of his own apostasies, whatever they are (I've seen claims here that he opposed SB1070 but is that true or just a mistaken notion?).  Certainly there were plenty of establishment Republicans who survived primaries last year, like Portman and Coats and perhaps some others.

But if Flake has any soft spots for teabaggers to exploit, they will try to find a candidate to exploit them, and the teabaggers have proven they can strike on short notice, without their candidates needing long lead times to raise money and establish themselves with voters.  So we can go through this whole year without knowing if a credible far right challenge emerges.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Chicago-Mayor: Emanuel at 45, Braun rebounds to 23, Chico 16, Del Valle 10
http://media.nbcchicago.com/do...

Basically, the poll suggests Braun's race-baiting ads have worked. She's at 44-32 over Emanuel with African-Americans here, while she doesn't break 8% with any other demographic.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

That certainly is a rebound
Last I saw, she was in single digits.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Well, this is awkward
Tea-Party endorses Chico for Mayor

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

This will probably be the final nail on Chico's coffin.  

[ Parent ]
If Chico
accepts this endorsement Rahm should air attack ads around the clock hammering Chico on this dubious endorsement.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
And this comes just four days before the final televised debate...
Emanuel can attack Chico on this, but he should be aware that most of the Chico vote would probably bolt for Del Valle over Emanuel. You just know Moseley Braun's gonna go apeshit over this.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I wonder
if CMB is going to call Chico an out flat racist during the last debate. I wouldn't put it past her....

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
It's a Moseley Braun internal poll
http://abclocal.go.com/wls/sto...

I'm not sure what to read into this paragraph:

The Moseley Braun campaign-funded poll was conducted from February 10 to February 12, and surveyed 801 residents that they say targeted more African-Americans.

Does that mean they deliberately oversampled African-Americans?  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Well, she's playing with a voter model of...
Black - 44%
White - 34%
Hispanic - 17%

None of the other pollsters, to my knowledge, have released their voter model compositions, so I can't tell how far-off Moseley Braun's model is. The Hispanic # is probably correct, if perhaps too high. The black/white numbers might be closer to 40/38, but I'm not confident of that. Whatever the case with the voter model, if the Moseley Braun cross-tabs are correct and she's beating Emanuel by double-digits among blacks, then she'd still have the #2 slot, whether or not the voter model is skewed.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Just for fun, a few trivia questions
1. When did the Democratic Party last controlled the Utah State House of Representatives?

2. Which reliably Republican state in the plains had a  Democratic majority in it's State House for two years in the 1980s?

3. Name the two Republican California Assemblymembers who were elected de-facto Speakers by Democrats to keep Willie Brown in charge of running the chamber in 1995.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Question 3
Brian Setencich and Doris Allen. Allen was recalled in November 1995 and resigned before leaving office, and Setencich lost renomination in June 1996 after losing the Speakership to Curt Pringle after Willie Brown resigned to become SF Mayor.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Gold star
One of the more memorable instances of parliamentary style antics in politics here. Republicans were ticked at those two and wasted no time booting them out.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
I don't follow.
I know Dems lost control over the Assembly 41-39, but what is this all about De Facto GOP Speakers in order to keep Willie Brown in power?  Didn't his Speakership end in '95 with the final GOP Assembly?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He pulled the strings through Allen and Setencich
It was sort of complicated how it worked, but Allen and later, Setencich were elected Speaker, but in name only and Brown pulled the strings of the agenda. His Speakership did end, but the loose coalition of sorts kept him in control of the agenda.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Doris Allen
is she the one who didn't want men with small penises telling her what to do?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Carol Moseley
Braun sinks further into irrelevancy. She compares Rahm Emanuel's commercials to Adolf Hitler. Bad move. How was this woman ever a US Senator?

Mayoral candidate Carol Moseley Braun compared opponent Rahm Emanuel's TV commercials to a character in "The Producers" who believes Adolf Hitler was a kind man.

"The joke in it was, he was a kind man, a gentle man," said Braun about comments in Mel Brooks' satirical movie. "We are getting the kind man, the gentle man on television."

http://www.suntimes.com/380711...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

I think it's disengous for you to insinuate that she is directly comparing
Rahm to Hitler. I'm not by any means saying it was a good idea that she used her comparison, but I get the point. Maybe it's time to get off of the bash CMB high horse. We know she's going to lose. There's really no point.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
If anything, that statement makes me confused.
I have no clue what to make of it.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I don't understand that at all.
Not only is it slightly offensive, it makes no sense at all.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I think she's saying Emanuel puts on a friendly face in public and is a dictatorial a-hole behind-the-scenes
It's the argument Ruth Messinger made in her disastrous 1997 NYC mayoral bid vs. Rudy Giuliani. In fact, she opened their one debate with a line along the lines of "the Rudy you are about to see tonight is not the 'real' Rudy." It's really the most inane argument, given I think many voters quite like a tough, brash, douchey leader in these populous, law-and-order-focused cities. People have tried the "gentle" mayor before - David Dinkins, for instance - and, in most cases, they don't like it. The whole irony of this is Carol Moseley Braun has just as much a reputation for being unbearable behind-the-scenes in her work. She's hardly the definition of warmth, whereas Del Valle is the race's most gentle candidate.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
A stroke of luck.
How was this woman ever a US Senator?

In 1992 the incumbent Democratic US Senator Alan Dixon faced a primary against a really rich business man who just shoveled tons of dirt on him.  The negative campaign turned voters off so badly that a little known and ignored third candidate named Carol Mosley Braun managed to pull off an upset.

Like Barack Obama's surprise primary win in 2004 her shock victory garnered her a lot of positive media attention.  She ran in a great year for Democrats and against a weak Republican opponent who expected to be a sacrificial lamb against Dixon.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
If I'm not mistaken, Moseley Braun actually won the white vote
I seem to recall reading post-election analysis that indicated Bill Clinton's coattails helped Moseley Braun big time in the suburbs. She won whites by something like 52-48.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Random Trivia
Right now, in the New Jersey Legislature, the President Pro Tempore of the State Senate (Nia Gill) and the Speaker of the General Assembly (Sheila Y. Oliver) represent the same district, District 34 (though not the same town).  NJ does the same-districts-for-both-houses thing, but still: has anything comparable happened in any other state legislature, uh, ever?  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
Ok, unlike in other states
There's a Senator who is President of the Senate, so President Pro Tempore is not that powerful, but still.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
They're also both black women
which is a pretty big deal. I don't know if this is known but Jon Corzine considered Nia Gill for his Senate seat before he appointed Menendez.

Also, why does New Jersey have a Senate President. Isn't the Lt. Governor the President of the Senate?  

[ Parent ]
For one thing
NJ didn't have a Lt. Governor until 2010.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 343 comments

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