Republican Gerrymander of New York

This diary presents a theoretical Republican gerrymander of New York (27 representatives) that should, in the normal course of events, yield a 16D-11R delegation. Exactly how Republican a seat needs to be to be safe is a matter for debate, but in none of the projected Republican seats did Obama receive more than 47% of the vote which I feel should be safe most of the time. This map make makes quite a bit of use of water contiguity both around Long Island and Lake Ontario, however there is no touch point contiguity. Population deviations are all less than 1000 (within 0.15%).

Districts are numbered in reverse order to the current system, low numbered districts are upstate and high numbered are downstate.

NY-1 (Blue): More or less similar to the current 28th including the most Democratic parts of Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and the western Democratic parts of Rochester. Uses water contiguity on Lake Ontario instead of following the coastline which helps to push the PVI a little more Democratic. O 71% M 27%  

NY-2 (Green): Reasonably similar to the current 26th in that it includes parts of the Buffalo and Rochester suburbs and the areas in between. O 47% M 51%  

NY-3 (Dark Magenta): At this point upstate New York starts to take departures from reality and no longer resembles the current districts. The western parts of the southern tier, the south Buffalo suburbs, and wraps around Rochester to take in the eastern suburbs.  O 47% M 52%  

NY-4 (Red): Eastern and southern democratic leaning areas of Rochester, water contiguity to Oswego and a thin strip to metro Syracuse, tendrils to both Utica and Ithaca. O 64% M 35%  

NY-5 (Gold): The remainder of the southern tier, the territory between Syracuse (including its western suburbs) and Rochester, wraps around to southern Syracuse avoiding Ithaca. O 47% M 51%  

NY-6 (Teal): Northern Syracuse, northern Utica, Rome, north along the Lake Ontario coastline before turning east and then south, terminating short of Albany. O 47% M 52%  

NY-7 (Dark Grey): The Democratic leaning northernmost counties, a narrow strip running down the eastern state line, Saratoga Springs, Schenectady, and Albany. O 62% M 36%  

NY-8 (Slate Blue): Otsego County centred, with arms running off in every direction sucking in Republican leaning districts. O 47% M 51%

NY-9 (Cyan): Both the east and west state lines with convoluted lines grabbing the most Republican parts of Rockford County O 46% M 52%  

NY-10 (Deep Pink): Binghampton, Middletown, Peekskill, Newburgh, Poughkeepsie, Kingston, and the land connecting them. O 60% M 39%  

NY-11 (Chartreuse): The Democratic parts of Rockland and parts of Westchester, down the Hudson river coastline a little. O 66% M 33%

NY-12 (Cornflower Blue): More of Democratic Westchester, including New Rochelle and Mount Vernon, plus some of the northern Bronx. O 85% M 14%  

NY-13 (Dark Salmon): Southern Bronx, much like the current 16th. O 93% M 7%  

NY-14 (Olive): Northern Manhattan, much like the current 15th. O 92% M 7%  

NY-15 (Dark Orange): Southern Manhattan. O 82% M 17%  

NY-16 (Lime): Little bits of Kings, Queens, the Bronx, and Manhattan. O 79% M 20%  

NY-17 (Dark Slate Blue): Mostly Queens. O 81% M 19%

NY-18 (Yellow): North-eastern Kings. O 95% M 5%  

NY-19 (Yellow Green): North-western Kings and the northern shore of Staten Island. O 90% M 9%

NY-20 (Pink): South-western Kings and Staten Island minus its north shore. O 47% M 53%

NY-21 (Maroon): South Eastern Kings, and connected by water contiguity, the entire south coast of Long Island from Long Beach to Montauk.

O 46% M 53%

NY-22 (Sienna): Mostly Queens. O 71% M 29%

NY-23 (Aquamarine): Horrendously tortuous district picking up everything republican in southern Westchester, Bronx County, Queens, and Nassau and using repeated water contiguity over Eastchester Bay and the Long Island Sound to do it. O 47% M 52%

NY-24 (Indigo): Republican areas north of Jamaica bay in Queens, as well as southern Nassau, and a little south-western Suffolk.  O 47% M 52%

NY-25 (Pale Violet Red): The most Democratic parts of central and southern Queens and Nassau. O 90% M 10%

NY-26 (Grey): The republican parts of Eastern Long Island O 47% M 53%

NY-27 (Spring Green): The Democratic parts of Eastern long island, in four sections, each connected by water contiguity along the Long Island Sound. O 63% M 37%

31 thoughts on “Republican Gerrymander of New York”

  1. Would probably take over Maryland as the most hideous gerrymander in the nation if it were to happen.

    I also smell a hint of dummymander in off years for the Republicans.

  2. I’m impressed by that 95% Obama district. That got me to thinking: what’s the most heavily Obama district possible to draw in the US? Gotta be in an urban center: Chicago, LA, New York, maybe even San Francisco+Berkeley+Oakland

  3. Personally, I’ve gotten Democrats to about 23/27 safe seats in NY. It’s pretty remarkable how much control you can have when you draw the lines.  

  4. It maximizes all those Republican pockets of strength scattered about in NYC and Long Island very well.

  5. How’s this do with VRA? Looks like the South Bronx, Northern Manhattan, and Brooklyn VRA (at least I’m assuming they are) districts are all intact, and even 53% black current NY-06 looks to be ok, though who knows about the added parts of Nassau.

    Great job though! I especially love your NY-23!

  6. Even allowing for liberal water contiguity, your 23rd and 27th can’t be contiguous without a touch-point:

    Without a touch-point, your 27th necessarily requires a longitudinal cut of the Sound (that is, follow it lengthwise as opposed to cutting across it), from Manhasset to Bayville and then on to Suffolk County [the green lines].  However, connecting the Westchester part of the 23rd with the Nassau/Suffolk parts requires a cut across the Sound from Rye to Glen Cove, which will necessarily need to cross the 27th [the orange line].

  7. Yup the GOP actually did control redistricting in 1972-the last time a party had complete control in NY.  Seems like a long time ago.

    I personally deplore wild redistricting maps.  Most of the % or two gains are not worth it.

    I personally think we will see fewer wild maps this year.

  8. The GOP does have an ace in the deck. The Chief Judge of the Federal appellate court is GOP appointee and if it goes to that court he would be the one to appoint the Judges who would hear the case. So the Dem’s had better settle with the GOP in the legislature. We forget that angle.

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