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SSP Daily Digest: 2/10

by: Crisitunity

Thu Feb 10, 2011 at 4:29 PM EST


CA-Sen: There's that quote about people who can't remember the past... what does it say again? They're likely to be very, very successful, right? Anyway, PPP looks at the California GOP Senate primary for 2012, and finds the Republican electorate's preferred candidate to go up against Dianne Feinstein would be... Carly Fiorina?!? She's at 23, beating out even Meg Whitman, who in fact is tied with Darrell Issa at 16. Tom Campbell's at 15, Arnold Schwarzenegger is at 6, Steve Poizner's at 5, Kevin McCarthy's at 4, and Mary Bono Mack is at 2. (As I've said before, I'd be surprised if any of these people find their way into primary.)

CT-Sen: State GOP party chair Chris Healy is starting to sound antsy waiting for Linda McMahon to declare her next Senate candidacy, even sounding a little snippy about it ("I think if you're serious about doing something this big, no matter what your background, you've got to make some indication that you're serious about it."). Healy probably has a lot on the line in terms of getting McMahon to get in, considering how many former allies he had throw under the bus (starting with Rob Simmons) to get her and her millions in place the first time.

FL-Sen: This is odd: despite most people considering him a lock for a Senate run, Rep. Connie Mack IV, when asked about whether he'd run yesterday by Greta Van Sustern, laughed and said "I have no idea." Could he be getting cold feet? This ought to have a foot-chilling effect: state Sen. President Mike Haridopolos, already declared as a candidate, seems to have the midas touch. He raised $1 million at one (1!) fundraiser in Orlando last week.

MO-Sen: Apparently there were some rumors yesterday which I didn't hear that said that Rep. Jo Ann Emerson was ready to announce she wasn't going to run for Senate. It's just as well that I didn't hear them, as now Emerson is publicly disputing that, saying she has yet to decide, and will take "a few more weeks."

NM-Sen: If you're thinking that that PPP poll that showed him overperforming other Republicans in next year's Senate race may have gotten Republican ex-Gov. Gary Johnson interested in dropping his vanity presidential bid and running locally, guess again. Buried in this Politico article is a quote from Johnson confirming that the only office he's interested in is the presidency.

VA-Sen: So, with Jim Webb's retirement confirmed, what now? Ex-Gov. Tim Kaine is the top Dem possibility (performing just as well as Webb, if PPP's poll of a few months ago is to be believed); his statement yesterday, however, didn't betray any intentions to run or not run (he'd previously said he wouldn't run if Webb retired, but somehow nobody seems to believe that, with most observers saying that Kaine could be swayed if Barack Obama leans on him to run). Rep. Rick Boucher, who's 65 and lost VA-09 after decades in 2010, hasn't said anything either (one advantage he has is that he still has a lot of money left in his federal account, after getting caught napping), but is getting some consideration for being able to put his red corner of the state in play. Another 2010 loser, Glenn Nye, is some Dems' wish list, along with 2009 losing LG candidate Michael Signer, state Sen. Chap Petersen, state Sen. Donald McEachin, and state Del. David Englin. Another state Del., Kenny Alexander, is floating his name (no idea if he's actually on anyone's wish list, though). Terry McAuliffe, the former DNC chair who lost the 2009 gubernatorial primary, says he's "not ruling it out," although he's generally expected to pursue another gubernatorial run in 2013 instead.

The potential candidate who seems to get the most netroots attention is, of course, ex-Rep. Tom Perriello. He's currently out of the country, and a spokesperson merely says he's "keeping his options open" at this point; a Republican consultant, however, gives Politico 10 reasons why Perriello would be a particularly formidable candidate. Two of the state's remaining Dem house members, Gerry Connolly and Bobby Scott, also are in the "not ruling it out" stage, though Scott says it's "unlikely." Finally, on the GOP side, it seems like Webb's departure is getting Prince William Co. Supervisor Corey Stewart even likelier to run, as he says the odds of a Republican winning in November are greater now.

NY-26: Chris Lee's shirtless come-on may have been a metaphorical iceberg tip, which may have expedited his surprising resignation yesterday; recall that he was one of the several GOP Reps. particularly smacked down by John Boehner several months ago for excessive partying with female lobbyists. At any rate, let's focus on the future here: it seems like establishment Dems already have a preferred pic here, in the form of Kathy Konst, a former Erie Co. Legislator and current county director of environment and planning who had considered the 2008 Dem primary but smartly decided not to barge into the middle of that insanity. Speaking of that primary's murder-suicide duo, Jon Powers says on his Facebook page that he's "definitely thinking hard about it," while Jack Davis, three time loser in this district, is "seriously considering" another run... but this time as a Republican! (Um, good?) One other Dem name that's unlikely but keeps bubbling up is the White House deputy press director, Bill Burton, who's never held office but is a local.

On the GOP side, alas, it wasn't meant to be: losing gubernatorial candidate/Acme Gaffe Machine Carl Paladino won't run, although he is offering his support to state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin (who may be emerging as the consensus candidate, since she has some self-funding capacity). The other top GOP contender, besides Corwin, seems to be former Assemblyman Jack Quinn, son of the ex-Rep. Finally, it seems state Sen. George Maziarz has decided not to run... or maybe had it decided for him by majority leader Dean Skelos, in order to avoid losing a state Senate special election if Maziarz got the promotion and seeing the body devolve into 31-31 chaos.

MD-St. House: You might have seen some stories about how a member of the Democratic party in the state House wound up joining the body's Tea Party Caucus and in fact getting elected the caucus's vice-chair, apparently after hearing from many of his constituents that they wanted lower taxes and joining up without doing any further research into what the teabaggers were all about. Well, after a bit of an intervention from his fellow Dems, Del. Curt Anderson quit the group and apologized.

WATN?: With John Kitzhaber returning from the mists of time to reclaim the governorship, now an even more distant figure returns: Democrat Barbara Roberts, who preceded Kitzhaber in office (1990-1994), is putting her name in consideration for an appointment to an open seat on the Portland-area Metro Council. It's unclear whether this is a temporary fill-in for the 75-year-old Roberts, or if she'd stand for re-election at the next general election. (Metro Council is a regional entity that spans the entire Portland metropolitan area with jurisdiction over public transit and land use planning.)

Vote by mail: One more western state seems to be going down the road of all vote-by-mail elections in the future. A bill to switch Colorado to mail-in status is entering committee in the Republican-controlled state House; similar to Montana (where similar legislation is in the pipeline), the bill has bipartisan support, including a Republican as one of its two main sponsors.

Census: This week's Census data dump is available (at least in ftp form), for Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, and Vermont. Next week's release schedule is Illinois, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/10
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Quinn
is a former Assemblyman. He lost a state senate run last year.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Really? I guess he wasn't as strong
as I thought. Who did he lose to?

I thought though I might also add that he is very young, like 34 if I'm correct, so he has a lot of opportunities to keep working his way up.

Either way, I figure the next round of redistricting will make Brian Higgins and Louise Slaughter safe, with Slaughter being based around Rochester, and Higgins taking in Niagara Falls and Buffalo proper.  


[ Parent ]
He lost to Tim Kennedy
the funny thing is that I think Stachowski was still on the ballot as the Independence candidate, yet Kennedy still won.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
That's pretty impressive
Considering Paladino's numbers, the open rebellion of the Erie County Party Machine, Antoine Thompson's loss in a 70% Obama district, and what I thought was the Quinn family juggernaut in local politics and good will among moderates and Democrats. I'd seriously thought Brian Higgins would have been toast that cycle if Quinn had run against him.  

[ Parent ]
If i remeber correctly
Kennedy won mostly because he got substantial number of votes as Conservative party nominee. BTW - he won a Conservative party primary over Quinn  by better then 2.5:1 and Democratic primary over (not liberal at all) Stachowski by almost 2.5:1. Quinn as Republican candidate got almost 2300 more votes then kennedy as Democratic, but more then 4200 votes for Kennedy on Conservative line were decisive (Quinn had "Taxpayers" line but it netted him less then 400 votes, whole Stachowski got more then 6600 votes as candidate of Independence and Working Families parties)

[ Parent ]
Iowa census data
I've drawn up a spreadsheet containing the population figures for Iowa counties.  Everything was hand-entered from the American FactFinder site, so poke me if there are any errors.

Since Iowa Congressional redistricting respects county lines and there aren't any VRA issues, I figure these figures will be useful if anybody wants to play with Iowa maps.

23, male, Democrat, IA-02 (previously CA-26, PA-06, CA-06)


PPP: GOP honeymoon over?
Generic ballot numbers at 45-41 in favor of Dems, GOP favorability slightly down and Boehner now slightly underwater.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I guess Americans aren't a fan of their new orange faced overlord
This honestly isn't supprising, especially with the healthcare showboating that went down recently.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
There's also
the fact that they neglected to mention that the first priority on the "jobs jobs jobs" agenda was...abortion.  I'm sure at least a few people are surprised to find how expansive the definition of "jobs" is these days.

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

[ Parent ]
As DCCyclone indicated somewhere else,
it's a little premature for people to be saying that the Democrats would take back congress because it's not clear what, if anything, these numbers mean. Right now, they do look like an outlier.

But it wouldn't surprise me if they turned out to be correct. The Republicans have shown to be remarkably effective at communication, but superior skills in that area can't mask overreach and poor focus. I imagine that they will probably suffer more, if at all, because they are going to be caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to spending cuts, but if they make a big deal of out of holding hears on the fraud of global warming science or some nonsense like that, it'll probably backfire pretty quickly. I just hope some Democrats, somewhere, are ready to highlight the contrast between the Republicans in congress focusing on bullshit and the president touring the country talking about jobs and infrastructure.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Maryland's
census data is also up

Other Virginia names - Jody Wagner, Shannon Valentine
In addition to the names outlined in the story above, a Virginia political friend tells me that two women's names are being seriously floated.

The better known is businesswoman Jody Wagner, who lost as the Lt. Gov nominee in 2009. She served in Warner's and Kaine's cabinets in key financial positions, and is viewed as having a lot of economic/business savvy. She is from the Republican stronghold of Virginia Beach - the only candidate from Tidewater. She's 55.

The darker horse is Shannon Valentine, a one term state House of Delegates member from Lynchburg. While she lost her seat in the Republican tide of 2009, she is still viewed by many as an up and comer, and her base in such a conservative corner of the state could be a plus. She is said to be seriously interested in a statewide run in the near future. She is 52.

I'm sure other names will percolate up, but thought I'd make sure these were included.  


With all due respect, a lot of the name-dropping is laughable......
People like Jody Wagner and Mike Signer are in sacrificial lamb territory.  That's who we should take a flyer on against popular incumbents, which is what they both did in vying for the nomination Wagner won to challenge Bill Bolling for L.G.

I saw Bobby Scott floated today, he could never win statewide.  I saw Glenn Nye(!) mentioned, a guy who no one likes.  And of course Doug Wilder of all people was thrown out there the day Webb retired!

Political journalists are reporting names of anyone and everyone.

The serious names are Kaine, then Perriello, then there's a dropoff but maybe a sitting a recent Congressman like Connolly or Boucher at least would have some kind of shot.

Someone like Valentine is not going to come close against George Allen absent a huge Democratic wave.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Why would they mention Wilder?
Isn't he rather loopy and moody?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Strangely, it just illustrates they're listing ALL names......
Almost any Democrat who has run for public office can get indiscriminate mention for this race by the political media.  It's some strange reporting.

If I were a political reporter, I'd be asking people if they know who's actually considering a run or getting credible pressure to consider it.  That's a standard a lot of these people wouldn't meet.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Agree Mostly
The name of every Democrat with a pulse is being thrown out there and it is ridiculous.  However, I still think that a quality candidate from the General Assembly (one who could adequately fund raise) would have a decent chance at winning.  It's just really hard for me to imagine many Obama-Allen voters.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

[ Parent ]
People who vote out of name recognition?
Look at exit polls from 2008: cross-over votes can be quite surprising. 7% of Obama voters voted for O'Donnell for Senate, for instance, which seems rather bizarre. Did they want to get Biden out of the Senate by any means possible?

Now Biden did outperform the ticket overall due to greater support from McCain voters, but clearly voters can split tickets more often than you'd think. Santorum 2000 is another puzzling case if we assume that voters are highly informed and ideological, like most of us here. The truth is, though, SSP and the blogosphere is a bubble quite different from most of the country. It seems puzzling to us why one would be an Obama/Allen voter, but there are plenty of reasons why superficial voters might do so.  


[ Parent ]
There are always
voters that make seemingly bizarre choices. How could someone have strongly approved of Bush yet decided to vote for Obama or felt strongly in favor of SB1070 and not voted for Jan Brewer?

I could see a lot of people voting for George Allen and for Obama if the nominee were someone truly toxic like Sarah Palin. I still think Obama and the Democratic candidate would win, but you'd probably see someone like Palin get 42 percent in Virginia (maybe that should be higher or lower, but who knows) while Allen might get 47 percent. But if the choice came down to Obama and some conventional Democratic senate candidate and Allen and some conventional Republican presidential candidate, you'd see less ticket splitting, but still some. It almost certainly wouldn't be big enough to let someone like Allen win, however.

Of course, it could also go our way. It wouldn't exactly surprise me to see someone like Tim Kaine do slightly better than Obama, even if Obama ends up winning the state. I'd say that's even more likely.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Divided government
If I had to guess, I'd put those O'Donnell-Obama voters down to a preference for divided government; wanting Obama as president, but wanting him to be counterbalanced (and mistaking O'Donnell for a generic Republican, perhaps). I'd be wary of that with Allen in Virginia and with any other generic GOP candidacies in similar states, as a preference for divided government was one of the factors that handed the GOP control of Congress last year. It explains how they won despite the Democratic Party and Obama still being comparatively more popular than the Congressional GOP, and it also partially explains why presidents reelected overwhelmingly don't always take Congress with them (Reagan and Clinton, e.g.).

[ Parent ]
Another possibility
those 7% could have been Obama Republicans who liked Obama but were otherwise straight R voters. then when they got to the exit poll they were like, oh yeah, guess I did vote for the Republican in that race.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I know this happened in MA this year
There were a number of people I knew who voted straight R, except for Patrick, because they felt that he was an honest politician trying to do right by the Commonwealth even if they didn't agree with him.  Now Patrick performed worse than "Generic D" so there must have been other people who had the opposite approach and voted straight D, except for either supporting Baker or Cahill.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
That's true, but VA seems to have less ticket-splitting
I decided to look at downballot performance for statewide elections in Virginia over the past decade, and at least here, there is little cross-over voting.

On average, down ballot candidate performs almost exactly the same as the top, overperforming by .1 percentage points.  The median candidate underperforms the top of the ballot by .6 percentage points.  Only twice (out of eight races) has a downballot candidate over/underperformed by more than 3 percentage points.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08


[ Parent ]
I think that's a narrow view
First, the person who named those two folks for me wasn't some member of the press engaged in idle speculation - it was a member of the Virginia Democratic Party executive committee and experienced campaign professional in the state who was sharing names that they thought were potentially promising candidates if Kaine or Perriello for some reason don't run.

I agree that the Kaine and Perriello are the top of the game. If either of them run, it should clear the field and these remaining candidates shouldn't be looked at seriously. I fully anticipate that one of them will be the nominee.

But if neither of them run, then the idea that only Boucher or Connolly could be a credible candidate is pretty short-sighted.

The Senate is full of people who never served in Congress and who weren't well known statewide when they started their candidacies, but who managed to create the right kind of image, buzz, fundraising, grassroots campaign, etc that managed to get them elected.

Think of Patty Murray, Scott Brown, Kelly Ayotte, Rand Paul, Ron Johnson, Amy Klobuchar, Jon Tester, Herb Kohl, Kay Hagan, Jeff Merkeley, etc. And then there was this little known Illinois state legislator named Barack Obama who ran for Senate in 2004 despite the fact that when he launched his campaign the party structure didn't think he could win a primary, let alone a general election.

If neither Kaine or Perriello is the nominee, we need to look broadly and creatively at the pool of potential talent, not artificially narrowing the field at the very beginning.


[ Parent ]
My only quibbles was
that Kohl owned on largest store-chains in America and had about 600 million dollars, Klobuchar was a high profile DA in the state's largest county, and Jeff Merkeley was the Speaker of the State House.  

[ Parent ]
"High profile"
That is a slight exaggeration of Klobuchar's profile pre-2006. I lived in Hennepin County at the time, and I scarcely knew who she was. I Knew she was young, and a DFLer, but I probably couldn't have told you her name in 2005.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
My parents put up an
"Amy Koch" sign when there was a special election for Koch's state senate seat.  I was like, wha, they jumped ship and even have an opinion in the DFL endorsement/primary?  I couldn't even get her name right when she was an announced candidate, so not high profile at all.  But, she played the role of one as no one else got into the race.

Too many people shutting out my man RT Rybak.  :(


[ Parent ]
Senate Majority Leader
She is a powerful, young woman. She could run, but she would have to give up her senate seat to do so. I am curious as to where she thinks her base will be. Her district takes up part of Hennepin County (The same county Klobuchar was County Attorney (Minnesota doesn't have DA's, we have CA's). Klobuchar is going to wrack up huge margins, potentially even in Koch's district. Klobuchar lost Wright County (where Koch actually lives), by about 1000 votes. Klobuchar will clean up outstate if there is a suburban candidate for the Republicans. Republicans would do well looking for a farm land type Republican, to try and chew into Klobuchar's broad appeal in literally every county in the state. I think it is a fool's errand to jump in against Klobuchar, especially if the candidate is from The Cities.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
I disagree
with a lot of the examples used, but I think the point still stands.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I agree.
Experience in office in some way and having run a campaign, especially statewide, are two valuable things, but they shouldn't be deal breakers. At this point, I care more about having the resources to compete.

However, I think your idea applies less to Virginia, where we have a decent roster of candidates after two big ones, and more to a state like North Dakota. We might not have a particularly great bench in a state like Indiana, but the pickings are seemingly a lot slimmer in a state like North Dakota because it's smaller, so there are simply fewer politicians to choose from, and because we don't hold as many offices as the Republicans do. But that shouldn't be a reason to abandon such races. In states like North Dakota, Indiana, or Tennessee, if we can't find something close to an ideal candidate, we should focus on finding someone who is simply appealing. It's probably riskier to do this in a senate race than in a House race, but if there's some sort of interesting candidate that has a business or public interest background, we shouldn't have any qualms about supporting him or her. In some ways, it might be beneficial, because we can turn the "I'm not a career politician; I'm a businessman"-type sentiments right back at the Republicans.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Census
Isn't Maryland out?

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

Seriously?
How is that possible? How does a State Senator raise 1 million dollars at a single fundraiser at this stage in the campaign cycle? I think Democrats really have to hope someone very rich like Vern Buchanon jumps and creates an expensive, nasty primary, otherwise Haridopolos could be a seriously threat to Bill Nelson, even though Nelson does have a lot, (like 8 mil), of money himself, and vastly higher name recognition.  

He is powerful
He's the Senate President, and he's known as a strong fundraiser

[ Parent ]
R(I)POF(F)
can slide some money your way no strings attached, just don't tell anyone how much you received or where it came from.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
As Joe Biden might say,THAT is a BFD!!!
That's twice in a couple months that we've had weeks with sub-400K weekly initial claims.  We're in serious recovery once sub-400K is more consistent.  But that it's happened a couple times recently, and otherwise has been in the low-400s, is a sign of improvement.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
There is lots of chatter about a "jobless recovery"
but that's standard in the early part of an economic upturn, as businesses try to stretch productivity.

But there's more, ref http://www.theatlantic.com/bus...

Among the top 10 growing industries, this one is most encouraging for Ds politically

As auto sales rose in 2010, the industry added workers across various sub-sectors. During the year 35,000 jobs were added for vehicle and parts manufacturing and another 43,000 for retail sales. These two segments saw their workers' ranks increase by 5.3% and 2.7%, respectively.

that's a non-trivial dent in Midwestern economic pain, which will continue especially if consumer confidence continues to increase.


[ Parent ]
I was just going to say Michigan
but damn right the entire Midwest.  And the divide was extremely clear on who was for and who was against bailing out the auto industry.  Plus, many companies are just about ready to start selling their new green vehicles that come with shit tons of tax breaks for buying.  Obama and the economy have been on a two-term time frame, in my opinion.  2010 sucked, but now the worst is over and off we go again.  Common sense and stopping the economy from completely collapsing will prevail.  Stimulus bill and all.

[ Parent ]
You might be interested
in this information. Long story short, with the payroll tax cut taking place, we should be collecting lower amounts of withholding tax, but we aren't. For the first 20-something business days of this year, witholding numbers were up compared to 2010, which should mean that many more people are holding jobs. Perhaps there is some other reason Barry Ritholtz isn't thinking of, but I can't imagine what that would be.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2...


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
You might be interested
in this information. Long story short, with the payroll tax cut taking place, we should be collecting lower amounts of withholding tax, but we aren't. For the first 20-something business days of this year, witholding numbers were up compared to 2010, which should mean that many more people are holding jobs. Perhaps there is some other reason Barry Ritholtz isn't thinking of, but I can't imagine what that would be.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2...


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I'm afraid a couple things debunk that statistic's value......
First, some of the commenters to that blog post explain smartly that there are other factors affecting the withholding rates, such as another tax break expiring and the IRS unable to get tax tables out in time for employers to implement new withholding rates until late January.

Second, the comparison the blogger uses is January '11 with January '10, which tells us nothing about recent job growth.  That's a year's time in between, when we know over 1 million jobs were created.  But the withholdings info says nothing about recent numbers.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
NY-26 It's all John Boehner's fault.
He warned Chris Lee to "knock it off" about partying with female lobbyists last year.
But he didn't say anything about Craigslist and half naked photos. A costly oversight...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

NY 26
I have seen several reports claiming Lee was a "rising star" in the Republican Party, yet I had never heard of him before yesterday. What had he done to be called a "rising star?"

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

Be a competent Republican in NY
The bar is low for rising stars if you're a NY Republican....to have not gotten his start in the wave of 2010 and be the second-most-senior-congressman in your state's Republican delegation.

Basically, he'd survived his freshman term without embarrassing himself, got re-elected by a comfortable margin, didn't piss anybody important off, presented a fairly appealing image (when clothed), and was relatively young ... oh, and rich, I think. He basically was the non-Peter-King bench.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
rise to where?
the privilege to lose to carl paladino?  to lose to cuomo, gillibrand or schumer?  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Ha! Nice...
Excellent point. I could maybe see a Republican winning the governorship someday if Democrats take over both houses of the state legislature ... for "balance".

A moderate-seeming  (though not really moderate-voting) businessman like Lee would've been the type of candidate who might've been able to win that sort of race.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Rising star
There are certain districts, whose incumbents automatically seem to be considered rising stars, for whatever reason.  Lee's predecessors in this district were Tom Reynolds, Bill Paxon and Jack Kemp. Moreover, it is significant that Lee was placed on the House Ways and Means Committee.

A Democratic example of this phenomenon would be the 5th District of Illinois, which has been represented by Rahm Emanuel, Rod Blagoyevich and Dan Rostenkowski.


[ Parent ]
NY GOP now has
only 1 congressman with any seniority.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


it's good to be the King
har har har.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Census:
I'll wait until that new data is tabulated to show which districts grew, which shrank, and other trends.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


VA-Sen
I'm not really sure who would want Glenn Nye to run.  He is a conservative Blue Dog, which alienates many liberal primary voters, and he voted against health care reform, which I think would annoy the party establishment like Tim Kaine and the President.  Plus, he lost re-election by 10 points.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08

He and Perriello
both faced pragmatic conservatives, and Perriello lost by the narrowest margin of the two despite having voted for HCR in a district Obama lost.  That goes to show you the value of hard, diligent campaign work and running on your accomplishments.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
However
I would favor Kaine running.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I Agree Completely
Nye might have a future in state politics, but I can't see him in any way as a superior candidate to Perriello. I guess the name from the above list that I find the most interesting to throw into the mix (though I'd be quite happy with Perriello or Kaine) is Chap Peterson.

[ Parent ]
I don't have a favorite yet, but
I think Kaine and then Perriello would be the strongest candidates.  Normally, someone from the legislature would be very problematic, as they really couldn't run for re-election this fall.  However, redistricting has pushed the primaries back to August, which gives them more time to test the water.

Chap might be good, as he has a base in the "urban crescent," which Deeds lacked and a lot of people argued that it hurt him in 2009.  Sen. Donald McEachin ran for AG in 2001 and only got 39% when Mark Warner and Tim Kaine both won, so I don't know how well he could ride coattails.  

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08


[ Parent ]
Nye has no future in state politics, believe me
He's reviled by the Democratic base. Nobody would lift a finger for him to win a primary, let alone a general.

[ Parent ]
Don't see why
He's not that bad a Dem, and has a good profile, (military veteran, background in the Tidewater), for a future race. I'd love to see him run for LG in 2013.  

[ Parent ]
No, he's pretty bad
Nye was utterly predictable. He tacked right on nearly everything. Although he voted for the stimulus package, he voted against health care and cap-and-trade so the base basically had nothing at all to be excited about.

I'm not condemning Blue Dogs. But while VA-02 is conservative (R+5), Nye took zero political risks and ended up getting hammered anyway against a pretty mediocre opponent.

He also wasn't in the military, by the way. He served in the Foreign Service for the Department of State.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


[ Parent ]
I went to a town hall meeting of his in late 2009
While other members of Congress were getting heat from the teabaggers, Nye's was full of pissed-off Democrats.

There was zero presence for him last year. In 2008 there were signs, bumper stickers, and all that crap that the party loyalists put out. In 2010, there was virtually nothing. The Democrats wanted nothing to do with him.


[ Parent ]
Agree 100%
I would only vote for Nye if his opponent was Bill Jefferson.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Holy crap!
He was THAT BAD?!~!?!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
This is pretty funny
Draft Glenn Nye

I'm not sure who made it, but I saw it on Not Larry Sabato.  I think it sums up the feelings most people have about Nye.

26, Male, Democrat, VA-08


[ Parent ]
Wow, that's brutal
That Draft Glenn Nye page is brutal. Poor Glenn Nye. He was only doing what every political pundit, veteran politician, political handler, media type, and political commentator told him was the smart move.

The dude was a Foreign Service Officer and basically a proto-diplomat/aid-worker/economics/world-saver dude before he got recruited to run against the awful Themla Drake. Nye was just following what was supposedly the best political advice on offer. Ah well, we could use good diplomats these days. Glenn Nye For Ambassador To ...Somewhere.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Heh
Tom Perriello's Ivy League background makes him too much of a country hick to appeal to Northern Virginia. Did you know he drives a pick up truck? What a loser. We're not Massachusetts, Virginia is way too high brow and elitist to ever vote for someone with a pick up truck.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
VA netroots
Tom Perriello does seem to have emerged as the netroots fav. for this race for now.
But I was just remembering that Kaine may have been the original netroots candidate way back when (maybe before the word netroots was even coined).
VA bloggers setting up the old RaisingKaine blog to promote Kaine's candidacy (which closed after Obama won the presidency). Unfortunately the Kaine administration was a disappointment to them. So you never know.

[ Parent ]
No surprise...
but the Tea Party Express is placing Snowe in their cross hairs. They are also going after Ben Nelson, Debbie Stabenow and Dick Lugar.

"Olympia Snowe dishonors the notion that the Republican Party is supposed to be the fiscally conservative, constitutionalist political party in America," Tea Party Express Chairwoman Amy Kremer said in a statement.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/-...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


I'm rooting for
Stabenow.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
To win, of course.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
She is the best of all them

Thanks, it is a very important race.

[ Parent ]
They can 'target' her all they want
Press releases don't win elections. Get a candidate.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
speaking of which
do they (TPX) have a viable candidate against Snowe, or will they even unite around anyone?

[ Parent ]
Well, there's one
Somebody named D'Amboise.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
According to the article
They're raising money to defeat her.  Also, a PPP poll out last September showed she had 15-70 re-elect numbers amongst Republicans.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
And none of this is news
Nothing has changed in this race since the middle of last year. They don't have a candidate, and quite frankly they seem to lack the organizational ability to prevent Snowe from either being the next Dan Coats or the next Lisa Murkowski, depending on just how poor their attack plan turns out to be.

I don't mean to sound harsh but I'm just irritated by these recurring "Tea Party to target Snowe" stories. We already know you're going to. Get to work (like they are in Indiana, for instance), or shut up.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Unlike Indiana
Maine has closed primaries.  And those reelect numbers are very dreadful.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Plus
did you read the nutty platform the state party adopted last year? Its like Glenn Beck wrote it himself:

The document calls for the elimination of the Department of Education and the Federal Reserve, demands an investigation of "collusion between government and industry in the global warming myth," suggests the adoption of "Austrian Economics," declares that "'Freedom of Religion' does not mean 'freedom from religion'" (which I guess makes atheism illegal), insists that "healthcare is not a right," calls for the abrogation of the "UN Treaty on Rights of the Child" and the "Law Of The Sea Treaty" and declares that we must resist "efforts to create a one world government."

http://www.mainepolitics.net/c...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
Yea...
It's like the die-hard Republican base up here in New England has gone completely insane, as former Rockefeller Republicans either lost clout in the party or simply left (i.e. Lincoln Chafee). Only when a true millionaire (Linda McMahon) or good liar (Scott Brown) shows up do they nominate a semi-moderate anymore.

Should a real primary develop, Snowe is toast, but could easily win as a Lieberman Party candidate.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


[ Parent ]
The Lieberman strategy
Lieberman was only able to win because his Republican opponent pulled next to nothing.  There's no reason to expect that to happen in Maine; the Republican base would presumably stick with their primary winner, and the Democratic base would have every reason to expect victory if they voted for their candidate.  (Unlike the R's in CT, who knew that it was Lieberman or nothing for them.)

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

[ Parent ]
Definately
In addition to annoying stories, it also worth noting that Dem field in ME is also frozen by the TP's lack of firm action. Rosa Scarcelli said she'd run if Snowe is primaried. Not exactly a bold conviction position I know, but you can't blame Dems feeling that way, given the easy wins that Snowe and Collins have been able to rack up, even when seriously opposed or running in Dem wave or a presidential year. In 2008, Collins faced all three of those challenges, and was considered slightly more vulnerable than Snowe, and still basically nuked Allen.

I'm confident they'll rally to D'Ambroise in the end, though I don't understand the intricacies of TP factionalism well enough to know why they wouldn't have done so already. He's a small business owner, town selectman, former congresional candidate. Not a stellar profile, but Christine O'Donnell proved you didn't have to be. Although Gov. Page's support for Snowe or the entry of multiple TPers could upset that process, perhaps.



[ Parent ]
I don't know
anything about the candidate the Tea Party might back, but they seem to be acting more strategic, so I don't doubt that they will try to settle on one person in order to take down Snowe. Whether they will succeed is another thing, but if they settle on one person like I think they will and these polls are accurate, she's going to lose in a primary.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
As we learned in Delaware last year
the Republican base will absolutely vote for a nobody over a "RINO."  

[ Parent ]
I would think
that Snowe seems to be doing pretty good since she has avoided attracting a major primary opponent, but then again, who thought that Congressman and former Governor Mike Castle could lose to a perennial candidate nutter like Christine O'Donnell?  If Snowe isn't careful, she could very well lose to...well just about any name on the ballot.  She has terrible re-elect numbers amongst Maine Republicans.

[ Parent ]
Is this news?
Or do they plan on trying to get Teabaggers through Democratic primaries?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
That would be epic trolling if they did.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Yes.
That's what was so confusing about that article. It's supposed to be news that Republicans want to defeat Democrats in senate races in 2012?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It wouldn't shock me, actually, if Poziner ran vs. Feinstein
I suspect there's a chance he thinks Jerry Brown actually was beatable in 2010, and that Meg Whitman squandered such an opportunity with her massive heap of baggage and scandal. Poizner seems like a rather clean, "generic R" candidate, and I think winning the nomination here would set-up a 2014 run vs. Brown pretty easily, esp. if he, for instance, could keep Feinstein below 60% here. That's probably the R goal.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I don't think losing too races in a row is going to win him much support
If he gets pretty close to Feinstein (say holds her to 54%) he'll probably earn a shot at Brown.  But I imagine getting destroyed by her after getting destroyed by Whitman is going to make him look pretty unelectable.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Poziner's career is dead
He couldn't beat anyone in the primary let alone the general.  He has no base at all.  Devore would beat him easily.

Maybe more to the point, he is definitely not "generic R".  That's like saying Cruz is a "generic D".  His reputation is in total tatters, and I can't see anyone doing anything but laugh if he were to run statewide again.


[ Parent ]
Since Poizner
is a billionaire and therefore could mostly self fund, the CA GOP might take him as a cannon fodder candidate against DiFi (who ain't losing) so they can spend their money on other more likely races.
But, isn't he the same guy who said he'd "spend it all" to win his primary? Um, didn't happen.

[ Parent ]
Brown
I doubt Poizner would run again, esp. if he ran and lost to DiFi. The Republican nomination will probably go to Molodando or Fiorina if Brown is unpopular.  

[ Parent ]
You mean Maldonado?
Lol Malodoananondalnanodo.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
It's easy to misspell names like that.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
How is keeping Feinstein below 60
that big of an accomplishment? She received 59.4 percent of the vote in 2006.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Re NY-26: Not that anyone particularly cares much for this idea, but...Alice Kryzan?
Is she worth anything as a potential candidate?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

No. If she was worth anything, she would've showed it in 2008......
Normally a dark horse winning a primary against 2 more highly-touted contenders should have some mojo for November.  But Kryzan crashed and burned against Lee.  So that shows she's out of her league and her primary win was a fluke.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Mainly because
she was such a conservadem. She couldn't raise money after the primary because Democrats weren't interested in backing an Industrial lobbyist who spent most of her time working against environmentalists.  

[ Parent ]
Chicago-Mayor: Emanuel at 49, Chico, Braun, Del Valle at 19, 10, 8
http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

Emanuel needs to hope Braun doesn't rebound. Clearly, his surge into the high-40s/low-50s has come via a boost with the black vote. Likewise, Chico needs Del Valle to remain in single-digits and keep the Hispanic vote in his column.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


I don't know why
people keep polling this race.  Rahm will win in a blowout, considering the number of people in the race.  I'd be very surprised if Chico gets within 20 points of him.

[ Parent ]
There's a runoff
if Rahmbo is held under 50%. Plus people want to know who would get to join him at the big dance. Looked like Mosley Braun for sure for a while, but now Chico is clearly in the running and Del Valle is obviously not dead either.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
will they actually VOTE?
i predict a dreadful turnout on e-day

[ Parent ]
If such is the case, I think Chico's the beneficiary
He should get out the union vote rather well. I still believe Braun at least finishes third, given Del Valle has no money or ground game to speak of. People liked him in the debates, but the guy's dirt broke. Braun, on the other hand, has a bunch of financial heavyweights, Blago/Madigan/Daley allies alike, in her grasp.

Here's my hunch - either Rahm wins outright and Chico finishes 2nd, or Rahm misses the run-off and Braun finishes 2nd. Why? Because Rahm winning outright means he's consolidated enough of the black vote to break 50%. Rahm missing the run-off means he hasn't, which means Braun has held a fair chunk of the black vote, which means she probably has the numbers to pass Chico. I see no run-off for Chico unless Rahm bleeds blacks and Del Valle finishes under 7%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
It's Chicago in February
so chances are good the weather will be miserable. (this is also likely true if there's a runoff in April, which says a lot about how much Chicago weather sucks ass.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Emanuel wants to win more than he wants to win outright
Braun will never win a runoff.  Emanuel wants Braun to finish second, becuse then no matter what the totals are,  he is mayor.

[ Parent ]
That's pretty darn close
Unless he has lots of soft black or hispanic support, I'd say he wins it without a runoff more likely than not.  

[ Parent ]
I'll bet she finishes in 4th.
How the heck did Braun become the "consensus candidate in the black community"? There were much better potential AA candidates when this whole contest started. But all gave way to her.
She's only 2 points ahead of the 4th place guy in this poll.  

[ Parent ]
Persistance
She was the only one who refused to drop out, so all the other candidates from the black community dropped out and the community coalesced around her by default. She was not their first choice by any means.

progressive, NY-8 (home), PA-7 (college)

[ Parent ]
Well that
And before imploding she looked the best positioned of the AA candidates to pick up cross-over (i.e. non-Black) voters, because once upon a time she had a decent base among white liberals (probably because of name-rec and general familiarity more than rock solid support).  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Precisely
Keep in mind, Danny Davis was so broke, he couldn't even muster a campaign website! James Meeks was a joke, and, thus, that left Braun, who indeed started with some support among white liberals and Hispanics (not to mention the likes of Mike Noonan, Bobby Rush and Valerie Jarrett behind her), to presumedly coalesce the base. Alas, both of those constituencies have broken for other candidates, while only her most ardent black supporters seem to be sticking by her.

Again, though, I really feel like, at the end of the day, the electoral makeup basically ensures Braun at least breaks double-digits. I don't expect Del Valle to overpeform. And, for what it's worth, there's one final, televised debate next Thursday. Expect Chico, Braun, and Del Valle to go completely nuclear on Emanuel.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Last three polls 52, 54, 49
The Tribune trend is 32, 44, 49. At this stage I would be surprised if he didn't avoid another round.

[ Parent ]
CA-Sen
I am partial to the saying that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

How is the birth of an elephant the same as today's Republican party:  It is accompanied by a great deal of roaring and screaming, and it takes 2 years to produce results.

while I get your point...
I think it applies to candidates like Seals and Rossi.  The last thing we need to do is concern troll Republicans into not picking bad candidates again!

[ Parent ]
Kaine looking more and more like a "No" for VASen
Politico has more quotes from people who "should" be in the know that don't think Kaine will make the jump from DNC Chair to VA Senate.

I think if he was going to jump in he would have released a statement by now to at least express some intent, the standard "looking closely" language any trained monkey can cut and paste from the 37 identical statements made by potential '12 candidates this year...

My opinion of Kaine's candidacy is the same as my issue with Webb running again, do Dems really want their standardbearer for VASen to be running out of obligation or out of hunger for the office? Kaine at least seems to not want the job and one of my most basic rules of politics is "Never run for an office you don't want".

Dems will be much better off long term with Periello or Connolly that with Kaine (as with Webb) if they aren't emotionally prepared for a full bore 20 month campaign.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


For the head of the DNC not to run...
...when the party needs him in a close race to control the senate... that goes beyond incompetence.  That is malpractice.

What incredibly poor leadership we have at the DNC right now.  Any competent manager/director of an organization would be the first to jump in if needed.  The fact that he's refusing to do so is symbolic of his incredibly poor management skills.

Tim Kaine either needs to run or resign his post for someone who cares about the job.


[ Parent ]
In fairness to Kaine, we have
little beyond a few statements to go on. Everything is basically speculation.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
True
We also don't know who Kaine is talking to.  Perriello is out of the country, so I doubt there is much communication there.  I would believe that the president would really like Perriello in there if Kaine is hesitant.

[ Parent ]
What's wrong with being DNC Chair?
I'm not a huge Kaine fan at all, but to treat him like a Benedict Arnold because he doesn't want to run for Senate (supposedly)?

If I were a staffer at the DNC or OB'12 I could make a pretty good argument that the WH having the people they want (need?) in key positions like heading the DNC is far more important that the nominee for 1 Senate seat. It's not even like Kaine would make it a slam dunk if he ran or that Periello would be a dead man walking.

More than anything else (and I know i've beaten this to death) the Dems should want a candidate who is going to live and breathe this campaign every moment of every day between now and Nov. '12, if Kaine isn't capable of being that guy why force him into it and risk losing just because he looked like the right guy on paper?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I absolutely agree
Especially considering there are other options (like Tom Perriello), I see no reason why Chairman Kaine is particularly needed in the Virginia race. Besides, a vacancy at the DNC's top job right before a presidential election could create some of its own confusion (Kaine would almost certainly have to resign to avoid conflicts of interest).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
And so would most people, it seems.
As much as I think Kaine is the safer bet, he shouldn't be the nominee if he doesn't want it. Perriello is definitely riskier, but I firmly believe he can win. The question is, does Perriello want to run? I can't speak for him, but why wouldn't he want to? Does he have some sort of other job lined up?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
It's like people who refuse to work late
Some people are not consumed with work.

Reactions like yours are like that of a boss who gets mad when an employee won't take a transfer to a job where he'd have to work 16 hour days for years.


[ Parent ]
YES!
The idea that candidates or elected officials are some kind of automotons who exist only to win seats for us (ie their party) is sick and somewhat dangerous to our democracy, you end up with officials who go from annoited saviors to evil pariahs based on thier desire to not die in office.

Public service is just that, a service to your country, but it should not be a forced service, honor their work, but don't forget they are real people with real lives.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
If he was not ready to put everything he had into winning...
...then Kaine should have taken a different job.  He is the leader.  He has the responsibility to make the sacrifices necessary for the organization. He's getting paid a lot of money to make those sacrifices.

If he's not up to the task, then he should take another job.  Kaine isn't some local operative, he's the boss and the buck stops with him.  


[ Parent ]
Acceptance of slavery
is not a condition of employment in any job.

Kaine would make a lot more as a lobbyist. The hours would be better too.


[ Parent ]
Is VA Senate more important than DNC?
I'm not sure it is, there is a world of difference between the two jobs and I think Kaine has at the very least earned himself the right to say NO if he doesn't want the job.

Like he himself said he has a "great job" already and if (for instance) he can't put his heart and soul into attending rotary club meetings is places you and I have never heard of instead of running the organization behind the largest and most expensive presidential re-election in history he is suddenly some hack? He's not making millions of dollars a year to schmooze members on the gold course, he has a real job and I'll bet you and I get more sleep a night then he gets in a week, so if he doesn't want to run for Senate I think it's his right.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
VA-Sen is unquestionably FAR more important than DNC Chair......
A Senator has a vote in deciding how the country is governed.  A DNC Chair does nothing remotely as important as that.  These offices are not remotely close.  There are tons of people who can do Kaine's current job competently, and it's simply a matter of picking whoever Obama wants as Kaine's successor.  A Senate race doesn't have a lot of people who can win over 50%-plus-one voters against strong competition.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Is there some sort of special talent
that Kaine brings to his job at the DNC that nobody else can bring? If there is, I am not aware of it. On the other hand, he brings a unique talent to the Virginia senate race: the ability to win. Others have that talent--I think Perriello does as well--but it's clear Kaine has that ability probably more than anyone else besides Mark Warner.

 

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
No, my reaction is more like the employee...
...who sees his boss slacking and leaning on others to do the work for him.

The buck stops with Kaine.  He is the strongest candidate right now.  If we lose VA-Sen and the Senate, the responsibility for that failure falls on him, since he would have been able to stop it.

When you take a position of high stature like that, you HAVE to be ready to take the responsibility of doing what is necessary to make it work.  Millions of people are counting on you.

If you are not up to the task, do not take the job.


[ Parent ]
Same difference
An employee can't reasonably be mad when a boss chooses not to take a job where he has to work 16 hour days for years on end either.

It doesn't matter whether that person is "most capable".

Most of us have other obligations. Some really do believe in "family first".

The "millions of people are counting on you line" is cheap. It presumes that such a person is indispensable.


[ Parent ]
When the plant calls you at 2am...
...with trouble, as the boss, YOU are the one expected to come in and fix it, not tell the foreman to call someone else 'cos you want to sleep.

You are the head of the DNC.  You are the boss.  It's 2am and the plant has shut down.


[ Parent ]
On call for troubleshooting
is different as well. And it's a fairly normal part of many jobs.

Demanding that someone who is paid less than he could be paid elsewhere be ready to work 16 hour days, every day for years, just because, is unreasonable.


[ Parent ]
Kaine is a mediocre politician who's had a string of very good luck
He got swept into the Lt. Governor office by Mark Warner's coattails, his opponent in 2005 self-destructed due to overreaching with his ads, and he got the DNC chairmanship because of his early support for Obama.

I've said this before and I'll say it again, when the president is a Democrat, the DNC chair's only job is to get the president re-elected. That's what Kaine is focused on, to the exclusion of the Congress.  


[ Parent ]
Maybe
Every winning candidate is lucky and every losing candidate is unlucky. Is Kaine a good campaigner or not? Would he be a good candidate in '12 or no?

I don't know the answer to either of those questions, but if he doesn't want it, and I mean want it like a starving dog wants a steak, do you want him as your standarbearer is what is sure to be a rough and tumble barn burner?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Obama can get himself reelected
He can raise more money than god and needs no outside held.  Are you saying that Kaine didnt do anything to help Democrats in 2010, because that would be grounds for forcing him out.  

[ Parent ]
Kaine is not obligated to do anything he doesn't want to
jeez, do you really want a candidate running who doesn't really want to run? We don't know what the situation will be next year anyway. This reminds me of those who bitched and moaned that Kathleen Sebelius decided to take a cabinet post instead of running for KS-Sen. Does anyone really think she would've won last year?  

[ Parent ]
Definitely not
And it's good for you to remind us about this.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Do you have a link?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
FL-Sen
I don't know the guy from Adam, but I'm calling BS on Sen. President Mike Haridopolos supposed $1M fundraising total.

Until I see a report of this I'm thinking this is either conjecture being reported as fact or at best he got $1M in "commitments" from donars and bundlers. If he got every attendee to max out at $5k (2.5k for primary & general - to I have those max numbers right?) there would have had to be 200 people at that fundraiser. It's possible, certainly for a presidential candidate, but at this stage in a Senate race? This just doesn't pass the smell test and I bet we get an Ed Martin-esque retration in a week or two.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


I'm skeptical to.
Just because having lived near his district he just doesn't strike me as somebody who could pull that off. If its true then its probably just all the donors and interests he lined up in his back pocket as president of the senate throwing in together at once to make a lot of noise but I doubt that.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
Lobbyists
Looks like it was mostly lobbyists (who can write checks for $10k each). Shows he has strength, but not as impressive as it looked at first blush (many of these same lobbyists will write checks for Nelson too).

This is going to be a $25M race when all is said and done, and the bulk of that will have to come from individual donors, but I'm equally sure he got Connie Mack IV and Bill Nelson's attention...which was of course the whole point in doing this in one meeting...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Its still impressive
1 million dollars is a million dollars, whether it came in pennies or $10k checks.

[ Parent ]
More on NY-26
A really good source gives a rundown into three apparant three frontrunners for the Dems (Hochul, Konst and Powers). More interestingly, it also shines a light on a local battle emerging between supporters and fierce opponents of Konst. Her opponents are alledging that the reports about DCCC and county chair support for her may be false and started by her "loyalists", and they are even claiming that she's somewhat of a "persona non grata" with local Dem establishment and that Hochul is more likely emerging as a consensus pick.

However, to give balance, others on the site give a more positive view of her, including one who says they are close with both her and Jon Powers. If the positive view of her is correct she does sound like a strong candidate, but it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/


I can't imagine Powers has a real shot when the county chairs decide this......
Primary voters might not know any better, but county party chairs are going to know quite well Powers' foibles and failure in '08.  He was a bad candidate.  I'd be surprised if any of the 3 Dems from '08 get a serious look.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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