Neither are out

Kaine can and will reverse himself if he so chooses. I haven't heard anything from Perriello about his future plans, other than he's not trying to win back VA-05.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 16:56:41 PM UTC

Connolly

I still think Webb is pushing to be SecDef when Gates leaves this summer, today's annoucement may be his ace in the hole to complete the deal.

If it is a November race I think Connolly is the best Dem candidate, I'm sure the state party would be thrilled to have a NoVa candidate topping the ticket as they try to hold onto their state Senate majority...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 17:01:03 PM UTC

VA

Why would Obama pick Webb?  Just pick Ike Skelton or move Hillary over.  ZERO need to hurt yourself in the Senate.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 17:04:35 PM UTC

I've gotten into this before

But I don't think the WH gives a lick if the open senate race in VA happens in '11 or '12. One vote won't matter that much and I'm sure Obama would tell Reid or Murray or whoever that having the right person in place to successfully message the DoD budget cuts, the GWOT & DADT is worth a hell of a lot more to the Dem Senate majority than whatever affect Webb's leaving the Senate would.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 17:12:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And I've said this before

They should and there is no evidence they aren't. It isn't just about one vote this session but about holding the Senate at all after 2012. If they really want Webb then fair enough but there are many others that could do the job (if not better than Webb) without risking giving the Republicans a leg up here.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 17:21:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ike Skelton

that is a good idea I have not really heard.  

TX-13,22,Dem

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by: buff2011 @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 21:37:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Really?

The guy who crafted DADT gets to be responsible for implementing its repeal?

22, male, VA-10

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by: Bharat @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 22:22:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

HE had to come out against

DADT because if his district. Either way no one can be with the president 100% of the time in their job before an appointment.  

TX-13,22,Dem

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by: buff2011 @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 22:35:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Connolly would be the worst candidate

First off, I don't think it is fair to say that Perriello and Kaine are out. Both have left themselves plenty of wiggle room, and now that Webb is announcing his decision, they can express interest without looking like they were stepping on Webb's toes.

Gerry Connolly would be a horrible statewide candidate -- he has enough trouble winning in his northern Virginia district, he would never sell statewide. Outside of ideology Connolly is viewed as too abrasive and culturally would never sell outside of the Metro DC parts of the state.

I know conventional widsom is that Tim Kaine is the strongest possible Democratic nominee -- and I agree that he has a lot of potential strength as a candidate, but my gut (and my limited experience with Virginia politics) tells me that Tom Perriello may somehow be a better nominee -- his young, squeaky clean persona, coupled with his effectiveness in selling his philosophy to a conservative electorate make me think he has what it takes. I'd happily support either one of them.

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by: terje @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 17:10:35 PM UTC

Trouble winning his district?

The fact he won at all last year is a positive.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 17:18:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not Seeing That

A New England native and former Fairfax County executive isn't going to sell in swing areas. Heck, he barely won his own district even though every Democrat who's competitive in a statewide race wins that district by a decent margin.

Yeah, Mark Warner is from CT...but Warner worked very hard in the Southwest/Southside in a way seldom seen before and used that to win his second try at statewide office. I wouldn't count on Connolly being able to replicate that path.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 17:42:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He'd have the resources

I think Connolly could put together a credible campaign quickly, and with the Obama infrastructure and the fact that Allen is also an insider I think it'd be a good race.

That being said, I hope Perriello reconsiders and runs. He'd be a damn fine senator.

22, male, VA-10

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by: Bharat @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 17:46:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He was a freshman running in 2010

You may be right about his appeal statewide but his result in November is not a negative in my book. He was one of the few to survive with that kind of PVI. Titus, Maffei, Dreihaus, Kilroy and Patrick Murphy all lost.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 17:57:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wasn't especially impressive in 2008 either

He beat Finian by 9 points then, and ran behind Obama by several points. For an extremely well-known local official running in an very Democratic year against a far right Republican, he should have done better.

But independent of the question of his performance on his home turf, Gerry Connolly simply won't translate well on a statewide basis.  

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by: terje @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 18:23:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Connolly effectively tied in a good district,

after a bitter republican primary, and in area with regular high turnout (good for Ds). He is very unimpressive and is a decent fit for the highly educated, government worker dominated district he holds. Statewide he'd be weak.  

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by: FairfaxVA @ Wed Feb 09, 2011 at 19:24:20 PM UTC