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NM-Sen: Smooth Sailing for Bingaman

by: Crisitunity

Tue Feb 08, 2011 at 8:01 PM EST


Public Policy Polling (2/4-6, New Mexico voters, no trendlines):

Jeff Bingaman (D-inc): 51
Gary Johnson (R): 40
Undecided: 9

Jeff Bingaman (D-inc): 57
Steve Pearce (R): 34
Undecided: 9

Jeff Bingaman (D-inc): 56
Heather Wilson (R): 37
Undecided: 7

Martin Heinrich (D): 43
Gary Johnson (R): 44
Undecided: 14

Martin Heinrich (D): 53
Steve Pearce (R): 38
Undecided: 10

Martin Heinrich (D): 50
Heather Wilson (R): 39
Undecided: 11

Ben Ray Lujan (D): 40
Gary Johnson (R): 45
Undecided: 15

Ben Ray Lujan (D): 49
Steve Pearce (R): 37
Undecided: 14

Ben Ray Lujan (D): 48
Heather Wilson (R): 40
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4.2%)

I'll confess that two things about PPP's new poll of New Mexico surprise me: one, that the Democrats perform this well in general, seeing as how they just lost the governor's race and NM-02. The poll's 55-29 Dem/GOP split at first glance seems optimistic, but this sample broke 55-39 for Obama/McCain in 2008, pretty consistent with the actual 57-42 spread. Given presidential-level turnout instead of 2010-style suckage, Jeff Bingaman (with 56/27 approvals) easily holds the seat against any top-tier Republican. That assumes he's running again (he's fundraising, but another run is apparently not a done deal), but PPP still also finds the state's two Democratic Reps. (NM-01's Martin Heinrich and NM-03's Ben Ray Lujan) winning two of three open seat configurations apiece.

The other thing I'm surprised about is how much ex-Gov. Gary Johnson overperforms the other Republicans in the field; he's the one GOPer who beats Heinrich and Lujan. (I would have expected ex-Rep. Heather Wilson to be the one who overperformed, but she's little better than NM-02's polarizing Steve Pearce.) For those not familiar with him, Johnson (in office 1994-2002) is currently a boutique flavor of the month in the GOP presidential field, appealing to the libertarian-minded college-kid demographic that got mixed in with the Paulist crowd in 2008 because of the pot, peace, and financial discipline aspects, but weren't so interested in the gold standard and black helicopters stuff. That seems to give him enough moderate crossover appeal that he's competitive in the open seat scenario; there's no indication, though, that he's interested in dropping down to that from his quixotic presidential bid. At 44/32, Johnson is the only GOPer with positive favorables.
Crisitunity :: NM-Sen: Smooth Sailing for Bingaman
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NM-Sen: Smooth Sailing for Bingaman | 43 comments
They are good results for Bingaman

I hope he continue, and this can be a enough safe race.

Not a bad prospect for the democrats in New Mexico. I will wait more results from their poll.

Not that goood
Jeff got 71% last time around. The 51-57 spread takes him back to his first election in 82 or his closest reelection in 94 (54% both times).  

31, Dem - NM-03 currently in France
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but then again, given that Bingaman ran against a third-tier nobody in 2006
Is it really that surprising Bingaman's "only" beating these candidates by 11-23 points?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
He can be so close to this again, against a some dude republican

Then, not big trouble.
[ Parent ]
NM didn't have a wave last November.
This is in response to your surprise about these numbers.

Ignoring the governorship, all other statewide offices were a wash.  Dems lost SoS, but picked up Land Commissioner.  Also, the State House didn't flip.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

polling results
like this hopefully will dissuade a top tier Repub candidate from this race. And as well convince Bingaman to go for reelection. Come on Patty Murray, start the arm twisting.  Finally a bit of nice news for us in the '12 Senate races
Where has the bad news been?
Sure, NE will be tough, and MT looks like a real fight, but I'm not sure that I've seen much else that qualifies as truly bad news.
[ Parent ]
North Dakota
Kent Conrad retiring from the Senate.
[ Parent ]
Oh yeah,
that one hurts.
[ Parent ]
OT: PPP has another website poll about who to poll.
The Paulians are stuffing the ballot box on PPP's website again!  Vote!

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Poor Rand Paul
he's just a junior afterthought.

FYI for everybody who hasn't voted, Ron paul is out in front and Jon Huntsman is the only one close to him, so if you want to stick it to the paulists, vote for Huntsman.

[ Parent ]
bah
I voted earlier in the day for Pawlenty, because he might actually win the nomination. I don't see Huntsman even coming close until 2016 at the earliest.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
bah
I voted earlier in the day for Pawlenty, because he might actually win the nomination. I don't see Huntsman even coming close until 2016 at the earliest.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
The best way to stick it to the Paulists
might be to let him win so PPP can show him losing to Obama by double digits

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Paul at least makes more sense than Huntsman
With no name recognition, Huntsman's numbers will be utterly useless. Paul (and, for that matter, Giuliani) is a well-known name and what he garners in this poll is probably a realistic measure. I find it a tad silly to poll someone who perhaps has an entire 15% name recognition.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I would think the Republican base would hate Johnson
both nationally and in state due to his moderate social stances.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
Johnson
 (and several of the others) might be in the presidential field to basically get try to be on the VP short list consideration of whichever R candidate wins their nomination. Hard to say.
[ Parent ]
I don't think there's any way
that someone who advocates pot leglization is going to be anywhere near any major political party's national ticket.  It's a shame that we can't really have an open debate over the drug issue yet, but I have a feeling it would make any Democrat or Republican who gets anywhere near legalization a non-starter.
[ Parent ]
I don't know the majority of democrats favor legalization in polling
At least in a Dem primary it could be an asset.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Well, let's see
if they release GOP primary numbers with all three of them piled in there. I suspect Pearce would win with the two 'moderates' splitting that end. (Although I'd expect Pearce's running-for-Senate days are over.)
[ Parent ]
But is Johnson really a "moderate"? I would argue not.
My hunch is Wilson cleans up rather handily among moderate Republicans, but that, of course, only gets you so far in a primary. Johnson wins libertarians and Tea Partiers who aren't social conservatives, but that, too, doesn't strike me as an ideal combo. So, yeah, I think your assessment about Pearce leaning is probably true.

FWIW, I think Bingaman does run for re-election, Wilson and Johnson pass (though the latter runs for president), and Pearce rather handily wins the GOP nod and rather handily loses in the general.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Libertarians are tough to classify on the moderate/conservative scale
I have several friends in the Ron Paul camp, some of whom might be Democrats if Paul weren't running, and some of whom are solid-right, ACU 100% conservatives (except on a few social issues like gay marriage.) I don't know any Johnson supporters but I assume they run the gamut as well.

I don't think Pearce will even think about runnning against Bingaman, and doubt he would run for an open seat either. I think that over the last two cycles he has learned his lesson about running for Senate and is content with his House seat. He may even lobby Martinez to shore up his seat in redistricting (you can make it 3 or 4 points redder without crazy lines.) The Democrats control the legislature, but she has a veto and might want to cede the 1st and protect Pearce.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
MT senate race
Recently, someone here, (possibly a Montanan), mentioned that Rehberg, the GOP congressman in Montana running for US Senate, has a rather disagreeable personality.  I am already seeing proof of this on the news.  If Rehberg is going to be obnoxious for the next 21 months, he will presumably "wear out his welcome".  How this could affect a potential GOP primary will also be interesting.  In Nevada last year, Sharon Angle's handlers tried to keep her away from the press, but, her personality came through anyway.  
Lawsuit
The MT Senate race is incumbent vs. incumbent and Tester is going to go hard after Rehberg's lawsuit against the firefighters and the city of Billings. It is perfect red meat as most people probably won't agree with it. Rehberg is going to have a hard time saying that he isn't a DC "elitist" or "insider" given that lawsuit and that he has been in DC twice as long as Tester has. Given that it is such a small state pissing off any chunk of voters isn't a great idea. MT is a conservative state but isn't adverse to electing Democrats and Tester's background is a good fit for Montana.

I'm really hoping that Tester will pull this out but it is going to be tough. Tester has been a very good Democrat (I am not a one issue voter but his Dream Act vote was disappointing).

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
There won't be a primary challenge.
He's been exactly like this in previous cycles, and there has never been one, not even 2010 (no serious one at least). I think the base likes him. They don't swoon about him, but he's good enough. Also, there's no one to challenge him, especially not from the right. That would be a no-name like a Public Service Commissioner (Kavulla) or one of several State Reps. who I could imagine, and I don't think they'd do it.

There's no big-name Republican to the right of Rehberg. Racicot is probably to his left, though it's hard to compare because he's already out of politics for so long and the climate was much different back then.
Hill is already running for Governor. Martz is old and unpopular. There is no one else, except for statewide office-holders who lost in 2006 or 2008, like Duane Grimes. Or Brad Johnson, the former SoS, who lost the primary for Public Service Commissioner mainly because he got a DUI during the campaign.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Bingaman is solid
I commented in another thread but I thought that I would echo some of my comments here. As a former New Mexican I really hope that Bingaman runs again. Not that I think that the seat would be lost without him as I think Martin Heinrich would hold the seat, I think that with President Obama's hopeful focus on energy policy that Bingaman's chairmanship will be very important on the national stage. My sources (no inside knowledge and I don't work on the Capital Hill) say that he is going to run again and an announcement will be coming shortly. I hope that is correct.

I think that with a Presidential turnout year that any non-scandal tarred Democrat wins, even in an open seat situation.

Also I wouldn't call this surprising, given November's results. The Governor's race was lost due to the combination of Denish being tied to the scandalized and unpopular Bill Richardson and Susanna Martinez being such a great candidate. NM-02 is an R+6 district that hasn't had a Democrat represent it since 1980. It is composed significantly of oil rich counties that border the Texas panhandle and they vote that way. Teague was about as good of a fit for the district as you can get for a Democrat but in a wave election Pearce was going to win given the district's tilt.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

If Bingaman is doing this well...
Then Obama is guaranteed a practical 60-40 landslide here. Just wait until the demographic data from the census comes out.... 47 or 48 percent hispanic...
NM
I'm torn here.

I think running Bingamann would put this in the bank, but at the same time, it would likely be his last year and maybe getting Heinrich some seniority would be good.  But in the end, possibly putting his district at risk and making this an open seat race, I think we are better off with Bingamann running again.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Really
If Obama is winning the state by as big a margin as PPP says he is, Republicans won't even bother competing here. It's only 5 EVs, they only have one House seat that's probably safe, and no other statewide races. Heinrich's seat will be fine.  
[ Parent ]
Wilson
If she were to run for her old seat she would be competitive especially in an open seat situation. In a way Heinrich is lucky that he didn't have her or his 2008 opponent, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White running against him as they may have beat him.

I do believe that Heinrich has a very strong future and will one day be a Senator. He is still quite young so he can wait several more years.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
Well sure
but in 2010, Republicans were playing in New Mexico, unless Obama is under 10, they won't be in 2012.  
[ Parent ]
But White was a strong candidate himself, and Obama did win the district by over 20 points
Heather Wilson's formidable, but remember the only reason she beat Madrid in 2006 was because of how badly Madrid botched the race.

Having an open seat in NM-01 might not be ideal, but there's enough of a bench here and it's Democratic enough that I'd be willing to take a risk if Bingaman retires.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Yeah
No longer a swing state.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Still, a complete slam dunk is better than expanding the map even a little. I hope Bingaman runs.

[ Parent ]
What's particularly extraordinary, I think...
Is that Obama's actually triumphing, besides vs. Romney, among the white vote alone. This state is veering sharply into Dem-friendly territory.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Yup
I suspect by the end of the decade New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado will be safe like California.
[ Parent ]
White vote.
If Obama actually wins the white vote in NM in 2012, I'd be worried if I were Steve Pearce, since Obama only won 42% of white NM's in 2008 according to exit polls, and Pearce doesn't seem like the kind of guy who people would split their tickets for. Even a 50-50 tie in the white vote would be huge.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Would be, although the white vote in southern New Mexico is a *lot* more Republican than in the rest of the state
Still, I've made that point before, Pearce is going to have to learn to keep his mouth shut or else find himself in a lot of trouble in 2012.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Webb to retire!
Politico just broke this.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Let the Webb as Pariah talk begin!

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

Perriello
This could be an opportunity for him. But something tells me Tim Kaine will actually jump in. Luckily, if Allen is the candidate, Dems may have the upper hand.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Could still be a '11 race
This is just a gut feeling, but I think this announcement is Webb's Ace-in-the-Hole in getting named SecDef to replace Gates. If it is a November race I think Connolly is the Dem's strongest candidate, the state party will be thrilled to have a NoVa candidate top the ticket as they try to hold their State Senate Majority.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
I haven't gotten the impression
there's much of a relationship between Webb and the Obama admin. So this would surprise me.
[ Parent ]
Uh
Gerry Connolly is not a beloved figure in Virginia politics. He is basically running a machine operation in Fairfax. Moreover, he barely beat Keith Fimian. I don't care what the situation was in '08, he's a bad enough candidate that he held onto his Congressional seat by less than 1,000 votes over a very bad GOP candidate.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
Whoops
I meant '10, not '08.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
NM-Sen: Smooth Sailing for Bingaman | 43 comments

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