Rob Wittman's 1st district shifts eastward, now taking in part of the Northern Neck, the Virginia section of the Delmarva, and parts of Virginia Beach and Chesapeake City. A side consequence of this would be the turf war between Wittman and Scott Rigell, as this district is 22% from the old 1st and 48% from the old 2nd. Nothing much else to see here, Obama lost by 17, Deeds by 38, Steve Shannon (2009 Dem AG nominee) by 35, and Jody Wagner (2009 Dem LG nominee) by 29.
County
Pop
Black%
Hisp%
Asian%
Obama%
McCain%
Deeds%
McD%
2
727,700
38.14%
7.08%
3.93%
64.62%
34.46%
51.85%
48.03%
Chesapeake City
79,237
47.98%
5.64%
2.50%
69.76%
29.49%
59.19%
40.73%
Hampton City
96,757
42.01%
4.83%
2.51%
63.23%
35.91%
50.30%
49.57%
James City
10,914
19.20%
7.07%
2.19%
48.64%
50.46%
36.88%
63.09%
Newport News City
114,167
34.85%
9.71%
3.75%
60.62%
38.53%
46.36%
53.53%
Norfolk City
242,803
43.11%
6.65%
3.29%
71.03%
28.06%
60.08%
39.79%
Virginia Beach City
136,804
31.89%
8.49%
6.42%
62.03%
37.00%
46.33%
53.57%
Williamsburg City
14,068
13.99%
6.69%
5.74%
63.77%
34.67%
54.60%
45.26%
York
32,950
20.30%
5.53%
6.21%
47.38%
51.55%
35.25%
64.58%
Bobby Scott's current 3rd is clearly overpacked, with the choicest parts of Hampton, Norfolk, Newport News, and Portsmouth dumped into his district. We unpack the 3rd a bit, lending some of its Democratic strength here. This new district contains the entirety of Norfolk, parts of Newport News, Chesapeake, and VA Beach. There's also an arm to grab Williamsburg, one of the few instances in this area of relatively white precincts voting Dem. 19% old 1st, 37% old 2nd, and 33% old 3rd, we get a district that Obama won by 30% (!!), and was even carried by all three Dems in 2009.
County
Pop
Black%
Hisp%
Asian%
Obama%
McCain%
Deeds%
McD%
3
727,246
50.91%
5.89%
1.84%
71.40%
27.79%
60.71%
39.13%
Charles City
7,256
48.42%
1.21%
0.34%
68.34%
31.01%
58.53%
41.38%
Chesterfield
56,895
42.34%
17.85%
2.96%
66.34%
32.93%
54.21%
45.58%
Hampton City
40,679
67.49%
3.84%
1.38%
82.45%
16.87%
74.80%
25.03%
Henrico
145,098
51.47%
5.37%
2.45%
70.10%
29.14%
60.91%
38.95%
Hopewell City
22,591
37.04%
6.55%
0.80%
55.49%
43.56%
37.38%
62.39%
Isle Of Wight
22,515
26.29%
1.91%
0.95%
44.01%
55.21%
34.97%
64.94%
Newport News City
66,552
50.67%
3.76%
1.01%
68.96%
30.31%
55.37%
44.52%
Petersburg City
32,420
79.11%
3.75%
0.82%
88.64%
10.19%
80.99%
18.97%
Portsmouth City
95,535
53.26%
3.06%
1.07%
69.27%
29.97%
59.76%
40.18%
Prince George
26,433
35.43%
6.87%
1.67%
47.60%
51.60%
31.72%
68.17%
Richmond City
204,214
50.60%
6.27%
2.33%
79.09%
20.03%
69.23%
30.55%
Surry
7,058
46.10%
1.22%
0.34%
60.72%
38.45%
53.61%
46.18%
The 3rd, having been unpacked, sees its black percentage drop from 56% to 51%. However, the VAP also remains over 50% African-American. In what would be a relief to Randy Forbes, Petersburg is removed from this district, which becomes more Richmond-centric. 59% old 3rd, 20% old 7th, and 15% old 4th. Obama dominated here (no surprise), and all three Dems in 09 scored 20%+ wins.
County
Pop
Black%
Hisp%
Asian%
Obama%
McCain%
Deeds%
McD%
4
727,955
17.68%
3.79%
3.88%
42.13%
56.97%
30.93%
68.95%
Amelia
12,690
23.10%
2.29%
0.21%
38.11%
60.81%
28.85%
71.10%
Chesterfield
259,341
17.48%
4.90%
3.32%
42.25%
56.88%
30.45%
69.38%
Colonial Heights City
17,411
10.24%
3.87%
3.32%
28.95%
69.63%
16.83%
83.14%
Dinwiddie
28,001
32.87%
2.41%
0.44%
48.45%
50.62%
37.34%
62.60%
Fluvanna
25,691
15.33%
2.96%
0.57%
48.57%
50.41%
36.48%
63.39%
Franklin City
4,422
25.28%
2.53%
1.40%
38.99%
60.08%
32.73%
67.27%
Goochland
21,717
19.25%
2.10%
1.04%
38.31%
60.84%
29.11%
70.77%
Hanover
38,469
11.95%
2.21%
1.05%
37.48%
61.65%
28.09%
71.75%
Henrico
161,837
9.88%
4.46%
10.20%
43.75%
55.40%
31.29%
68.58%
Isle Of Wight
12,755
21.90%
1.79%
0.53%
40.77%
58.29%
32.36%
67.61%
Louisa
33,153
17.71%
2.30%
0.48%
45.45%
53.29%
34.58%
65.34%
Nottoway
15,853
39.28%
3.84%
0.32%
48.84%
50.07%
41.58%
58.28%
Powhatan
28,046
13.63%
1.79%
0.47%
29.31%
69.78%
20.03%
79.85%
Prince George
9,292
22.22%
2.60%
1.10%
38.52%
60.75%
29.86%
70.09%
Southampton
8,698
24.88%
0.86%
0.39%
39.95%
59.19%
33.08%
66.89%
Suffolk City
41,589
27.77%
2.93%
2.29%
44.48%
54.73%
35.79%
64.17%
Sussex
8,990
57.33%
2.49%
0.46%
57.72%
41.49%
42.28%
57.72%
With the eastward shift of the 1st, the 4th and 7th also rotate accordingly along the Richmond-Norfolk axis created by the 2nd and 3rd. Nothing to see here, other than we've cut out part of Forbes base and drew in much of the old 7th (53% is from the old 7th, compared to 43% old 4th). But Cantor could clearly run in the new 7th and Forbes in the new 4th. Dems in 09 lost by 30%+.
County
Pop
Black%
Hisp%
Asian%
Obama%
McCain%
Deeds%
McD%
5
727,351
29.89%
3.43%
2.03%
57.47%
41.45%
47.35%
52.54%
Albemarle
98,970
9.70%
5.47%
4.67%
58.43%
40.36%
49.41%
50.48%
Amherst
12,637
22.50%
1.75%
0.51%
47.46%
51.77%
38.61%
61.39%
Brunswick
17,434
57.31%
1.71%
0.28%
62.84%
36.35%
49.41%
50.49%
Buckingham
17,146
35.08%
1.68%
0.37%
49.89%
49.01%
36.60%
63.40%
Charlotte
12,586
29.80%
1.91%
0.21%
43.93%
54.77%
33.24%
66.62%
Charlottesville City
43,475
19.41%
5.11%
6.37%
78.35%
20.35%
73.65%
26.21%
Cumberland
10,052
32.61%
1.80%
0.35%
47.73%
51.19%
35.87%
64.09%
Danville City
43,055
48.30%
2.89%
0.94%
59.13%
40.02%
44.93%
54.96%
Emporia City
5,927
62.53%
4.42%
0.73%
65.04%
34.28%
47.57%
52.35%
Franklin
38,514
8.83%
2.68%
0.49%
39.06%
59.55%
31.66%
68.25%
Franklin City
4,160
90.53%
0.70%
0.05%
94.65%
4.88%
91.81%
8.06%
Greensville
12,243
59.80%
1.41%
0.29%
63.88%
35.38%
52.64%
47.36%
Halifax
36,241
36.68%
1.62%
0.37%
48.23%
51.04%
38.25%
61.53%
Henry
11,930
39.81%
5.58%
0.45%
57.61%
41.49%
51.27%
48.73%
Lunenburg
12,914
34.75%
3.64%
0.19%
47.84%
51.33%
37.45%
62.52%
Lynchburg City
25,110
53.21%
2.53%
0.67%
71.04%
27.58%
61.07%
38.72%
Martinsville City
13,821
44.95%
3.99%
0.93%
63.48%
35.44%
51.66%
48.18%
Mecklenburg
32,727
36.82%
2.46%
0.67%
47.26%
51.83%
32.32%
67.67%
Montgomery
46,128
3.37%
2.88%
7.02%
58.99%
39.52%
53.93%
45.87%
Nelson
15,020
13.10%
3.06%
0.45%
53.99%
44.84%
46.23%
53.67%
Pittsylvania
37,893
26.92%
1.56%
0.19%
42.81%
56.26%
32.76%
67.24%
Prince Edward
23,368
33.19%
2.25%
0.88%
54.34%
44.46%
44.95%
54.97%
Roanoke
3,003
3.13%
0.93%
0.27%
40.93%
57.70%
31.39%
68.51%
Roanoke City
97,032
28.46%
5.51%
1.76%
61.15%
37.76%
51.89%
48.01%
Southampton
9,872
48.14%
1.30%
0.12%
57.84%
41.21%
48.82%
51.13%
Suffolk City
42,996
57.15%
2.78%
0.92%
69.00%
30.31%
55.41%
44.47%
Sussex
3,097
60.35%
1.42%
0.23%
69.11%
30.45%
57.34%
42.66%
A leaner, meaner 5th for Tom Perriello. We could have also tried to bring back Rick Boucher, but when you're forced to decide between a young up-and-coming progressive vs. a career Blue Dog in a more hostile district, the choice is obvious. This is a pretty blatant gerrymander, meant to string together all the Dems in Southside and to connect them to Dems in Charlottesville, Roanoke, ... and even Blacksburg. The result is a district Obama won by 16%, a massive improvement from the 3% loss he earned in the old 5th. 63% of the population is retained, along with 19% of the old 6th. Deeds kept it respectable, losing by 5; Shannon lost by 6 and Wagner by 3.
County
Pop
Black%
Hisp%
Asian%
Obama%
McCain%
Deeds%
McD%
9
727,482
4.65%
1.92%
0.90%
37.28%
61.12%
30.64%
69.28%
Bland
6,824
3.34%
0.57%
0.26%
29.20%
68.64%
24.06%
75.88%
Bristol City
17,835
5.66%
1.24%
0.68%
36.21%
62.22%
27.48%
72.44%
Buchanan
24,098
2.56%
0.39%
0.22%
46.52%
51.99%
36.74%
63.22%
Carroll
30,042
0.59%
2.58%
0.18%
32.67%
65.08%
26.96%
72.97%
Craig
5,190
0.10%
0.69%
0.15%
33.46%
64.67%
32.17%
67.76%
Dickenson
15,903
0.32%
0.54%
0.11%
48.54%
49.22%
39.46%
60.46%
Floyd
15,279
1.83%
2.70%
0.23%
39.08%
59.09%
34.08%
65.77%
Franklin
17,645
6.66%
2.23%
0.35%
34.81%
63.58%
29.69%
70.26%
Galax City
7,042
6.23%
14.04%
0.53%
43.80%
54.83%
37.38%
62.40%
Giles
17,286
1.51%
1.21%
0.32%
40.95%
57.24%
36.56%
63.35%
Grayson
15,533
2.06%
2.68%
0.10%
34.35%
62.88%
29.71%
70.29%
Henry
42,221
16.80%
4.45%
0.43%
39.85%
58.67%
32.38%
67.61%
Lee
25,587
3.70%
1.59%
0.22%
34.89%
63.13%
25.71%
74.27%
Montgomery
48,264
4.48%
2.50%
3.89%
41.25%
57.32%
35.04%
64.83%
Norton City
3,958
6.32%
1.72%
1.41%
49.14%
49.21%
39.34%
60.55%
Patrick
18,490
5.87%
2.40%
0.23%
33.75%
64.37%
29.86%
70.04%
Pittsylvania
25,613
14.91%
2.89%
0.42%
30.51%
68.54%
23.11%
76.89%
Pulaski
34,872
5.04%
1.24%
0.51%
39.32%
58.85%
34.84%
65.12%
Radford City
16,408
7.79%
2.35%
1.56%
53.97%
44.54%
45.33%
54.56%
Roanoke
59,667
5.22%
2.27%
3.29%
39.92%
58.89%
32.83%
67.01%
Russell
28,897
0.81%
0.95%
0.18%
42.91%
55.59%
37.55%
62.42%
Salem City
24,802
7.11%
2.42%
1.62%
41.63%
57.13%
33.39%
66.45%
Scott
23,177
0.58%
1.01%
0.16%
27.59%
70.68%
21.14%
78.81%
Smyth
32,208
1.99%
1.64%
0.25%
34.46%
63.54%
26.38%
73.53%
Tazewell
45,078
2.96%
0.66%
0.64%
32.80%
65.65%
26.58%
73.36%
Washington
54,876
1.26%
1.32%
0.37%
32.91%
65.62%
25.10%
74.87%
Wise
41,452
5.16%
1.14%
0.34%
35.33%
63.05%
29.55%
70.33%
Wythe
29,235
2.80%
0.96%
0.44%
32.88%
65.70%
27.24%
72.63%
There simply isn't enough Democratic strength down here to support both Perriello and Boucher, and protecting Boucher would likely be a poor investment given the political trends. We cede this district to Morgan Griffith, who retains 81% of his current territory. With the adjustments to help Perriello, we see a bit of a shift rightward, with Obama losing by 24. Again, all the 09 Dems lost by 35%+.
County
Pop
Black%
Hisp%
Asian%
Obama%
McCain%
Deeds%
McD%
6
726,966
7.04%
3.79%
1.10%
36.94%
61.83%
29.18%
70.72%
Alleghany
16,250
4.68%
1.08%
0.23%
48.22%
50.41%
61.23%
38.71%
Amherst
19,716
16.76%
2.05%
0.46%
38.06%
60.93%
28.68%
71.25%
Appomattox
14,973
20.08%
1.12%
0.23%
34.61%
64.26%
25.65%
74.33%
Augusta
73,750
3.97%
2.07%
0.50%
29.47%
69.35%
22.53%
77.40%
Bath
4,731
4.69%
2.13%
0.15%
42.89%
55.47%
63.47%
36.47%
Bedford
68,676
5.74%
1.59%
1.03%
30.75%
68.16%
22.87%
77.07%
Bedford City
6,222
20.19%
2.15%
0.66%
44.18%
54.75%
35.25%
64.75%
Botetourt
33,148
3.03%
1.07%
0.53%
32.71%
65.90%
28.56%
71.26%
Buena Vista City
6,650
5.22%
1.55%
0.44%
45.73%
52.91%
39.05%
60.95%
Campbell
54,842
14.16%
1.67%
1.00%
31.34%
67.58%
22.90%
76.92%
Covington City
5,961
12.51%
1.54%
0.57%
55.40%
43.33%
65.79%
34.07%
Frederick
42,487
2.93%
4.92%
0.80%
36.23%
62.27%
23.78%
76.07%
Greene
18,403
6.34%
4.24%
1.40%
38.43%
60.29%
27.37%
72.53%
Harrisonburg City
48,914
6.36%
15.67%
3.51%
57.54%
41.21%
42.16%
57.67%
Highland
2,321
0.26%
0.78%
0.17%
37.97%
59.85%
44.93%
55.07%
Lexington City
7,042
9.66%
3.85%
2.20%
62.24%
36.87%
60.53%
39.34%
Lynchburg City
50,458
17.40%
3.30%
3.37%
37.43%
61.36%
30.31%
69.59%
Madison
13,308
9.78%
1.77%
0.56%
42.72%
56.10%
30.46%
69.47%
Page
24,042
1.94%
1.55%
0.30%
40.76%
58.16%
29.73%
70.15%
Roanoke
29,706
4.84%
1.92%
1.67%
36.46%
62.48%
29.68%
70.19%
Rockbridge
22,307
2.66%
1.33%
0.47%
42.64%
56.22%
41.88%
58.07%
Rockingham
76,314
1.67%
5.34%
0.60%
31.36%
67.40%
21.75%
78.14%
Shenandoah
41,993
1.75%
6.14%
0.52%
35.96%
62.45%
25.00%
74.85%
Staunton City
23,746
12.15%
2.16%
0.78%
50.56%
48.39%
41.40%
58.54%
Waynesboro City
21,006
10.61%
6.36%
0.73%
44.09%
54.35%
30.97%
68.91%
Again, nothing to see here. Goodlatte retains 68% of his old territory, a strip along the Blue Ridge. The 2009 Dems lost by 40%+; Warner only won by 10 here in 2008.
County
Pop
Black%
Hisp%
Asian%
Obama%
McCain%
Deeds%
McD%
7
727,428
15.09%
7.03%
1.94%
46.08%
52.82%
33.13%
66.74%
Caroline
28,545
29.34%
3.36%
0.62%
55.45%
43.48%
43.47%
56.47%
Clarke
14,034
5.32%
3.49%
0.90%
46.52%
51.68%
36.59%
63.31%
Culpeper
46,689
15.78%
8.90%
1.30%
44.59%
54.26%
29.61%
70.25%
Essex
11,151
38.09%
3.13%
0.77%
54.70%
44.35%
39.19%
60.81%
Fauquier
65,203
8.16%
6.41%
1.28%
42.71%
56.19%
31.10%
68.77%
Frederick
35,818
5.39%
8.59%
1.76%
41.35%
57.16%
26.68%
73.19%
Fredericksburg City
24,286
22.64%
10.73%
2.84%
63.60%
35.27%
50.84%
48.94%
King & Queen
6,945
28.44%
2.65%
0.24%
51.77%
47.58%
41.03%
58.87%
King George
23,584
17.87%
3.35%
1.16%
42.71%
56.22%
29.69%
70.18%
King William
15,935
17.69%
2.03%
0.74%
39.87%
59.20%
28.40%
71.54%
Lancaster
11,391
27.95%
1.04%
0.57%
46.63%
52.57%
35.16%
64.59%
Northumberland
12,330
25.33%
3.10%
0.30%
44.72%
54.56%
34.39%
65.41%
Orange
33,481
12.71%
3.40%
0.73%
44.98%
53.83%
32.66%
67.28%
Prince William
48,819
7.26%
8.41%
5.35%
40.63%
58.36%
29.10%
70.79%
Rappahannock
7,373
4.35%
3.09%
0.53%
47.79%
50.56%
42.20%
57.70%
Richmond
9,254
30.30%
5.51%
0.43%
43.20%
55.86%
31.69%
68.26%
Spotsylvania
122,397
15.25%
7.58%
2.31%
46.05%
52.91%
31.51%
68.35%
Stafford
128,961
16.97%
9.21%
2.81%
46.37%
52.69%
32.44%
67.39%
Warren
37,575
4.62%
3.51%
0.96%
43.39%
55.06%
31.32%
68.58%
Westmoreland
17,454
28.02%
5.74%
0.57%
54.64%
44.40%
41.38%
58.57%
Winchester City
26,203
10.93%
15.42%
2.33%
52.02%
46.66%
39.18%
60.67%
We could try to screw Eric Cantor out of a district, but again, that wouldn't necessarily be successful. Democratic voters(which would have likely had to come from NoVA) are better kept in the three decently solidly Dem NoVA districts. Without touching the Dems in NoVA though, we still try to draw as Democratic a district as possible, taking in various parts of the Northern Neck and the DC exurbs. Hopefully, those areas - Fauquier, Culpeper, Winchester, etc. - will keep drifing left as DC's influence grows. While Obama lost by 7 here, there are still miles to go, with the 09 Dems having lost by 30% or more. 56% of this district is from the old 1st, 17% from the old 7th, and 21% from the old 10th (showing some of the growth it's experienced).
County
Pop
Black%
Hisp%
Asian%
Obama%
McCain%
Deeds%
McD%
8
727,839
9.84%
13.29%
11.17%
63.39%
35.60%
53.71%
46.10%
Alexandria City
139,966
21.78%
16.09%
6.02%
71.73%
27.26%
62.76%
37.04%
Arlington
207,627
8.49%
15.11%
9.60%
71.71%
27.12%
65.49%
34.26%
Fairfax
82,317
2.50%
6.38%
16.70%
56.50%
42.63%
48.79%
51.06%
Falls Church City
12,332
4.31%
8.99%
9.42%
69.56%
29.19%
64.92%
34.94%
Loudoun
285,597
7.31%
12.76%
13.32%
53.59%
45.48%
38.92%
60.94%
Again, a shameless gerrymander. But, we did manage to keep Alexandria and Arlington intact. Jim Moran probably needs a little more support than most Dems, which also factored into this decision. He keeps 52% of his old territory, with the balance coming from the 10th. Obama romped with a 28% victory, and Deeds even scored an 8% win here.
County
Pop
Black%
Hisp%
Asian%
Obama%
McCain%
Deeds%
McD%
10
726,728
6.69%
14.60%
20.33%
59.46%
39.56%
48.16%
51.68%
Fairfax
677,449
6.75%
14.82%
20.12%
59.69%
39.33%
48.49%
51.34%
Fairfax City
22,565
4.75%
15.76%
15.21%
57.69%
41.16%
46.91%
52.98%
Loudoun
26,714
6.85%
7.98%
29.86%
54.50%
44.69%
37.43%
62.46%
The 10th has grown massively, and accordingly, needed to contract. This iteration of the 10th becomes an almost all-Fairfax affair, with a slight section of Loudoun added. This would have swingy-ish characteristics in bad years, but Obama won by 20 and Deeds only lost by 3.5; both Shannon and Wagner won here as well. Only 30%, though, is from the old 10th (30%), with more being from the old 11th (54%); this district is probably a bit more inner suburban than outer (think Annandale v. Sterling).
County
Pop
Black%
Hisp%
Asian%
Obama%
McCain%
Deeds%
McD%
11
727,237
18.72%
21.55%
9.69%
61.05%
38.08%
46.98%
52.89%
Fairfax
321,960
15.98%
19.52%
12.30%
62.16%
36.93%
50.62%
49.23%
Manassas City
37,821
13.72%
31.40%
4.98%
55.17%
43.85%
38.00%
61.92%
Manassas Park City
14,273
12.98%
32.54%
8.97%
59.49%
39.47%
39.83%
60.17%
Prince William
353,183
21.99%
21.90%
7.84%
60.51%
38.66%
43.76%
56.10%
Gerry Connolly's district shifts southward a bit, taking in more of Prince William County. But unlike before, this district takes in the southern (and Democratic) part of PW. Connolly retains 47% of his old territory, but the parts he sheds he won't necessarily miss. Interestingly, Obama did better here than in the new 10th (23 point win), but this area swung harder against the Dems in 09, with Shannon and Wagner losing by 1 and Deeds by 6. This, of course, is still an improvement over the 10-point loss Deeds suffered in the current 11th.