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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Feb 04, 2011 at 6:27 PM EST


James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 217 comments
The data
 Looks pretty hard to crack right now. The New York Times though has some really nice graphics on the population shift in New Jersey and a few facts. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02...

A few highlights:
Camden now has more Hispanics than African Americans, Edison now has more Asians than whites and Newark grew while Essex County shrank.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

What
I find interesting are

A)White Flight- Whites are leading the urban areas and state in general and heading towards Ocean and suburban counties by the truck load
B)Black Flight- Blacks are leaving the cities (Newark, Paterson, Passaic, Camden) and are moving into the "mini" cities or to the suburbs
C)Latino/as are increasing everyone
D)Asians are increasing in the northern part of the state

I would also like to know how much of white growth is actually from the Middle East. As far as I know Middle Eastern/Muslim immigrants classify under the "white" category.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
There was a big debate
 In the 20's about who was "white" I think which made the middle east people classified as "white." That might explain the white growth in Hudson County although Hudson County is experiencing white growth from NYC (two of my relatives for example moved into Hoboken from New York.) In Ocean County though, I am pretty sure it is white residents from North Jersey and New York who are moving down there.

It's interesting that the white population of New Jersey dropped to 59.3% though. That was an interesting highlight.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
The
day the white population of the US hits 49.99999 is the day I will be extremely happy. It will be interesting to see how the country will be like then. A huge mixing pot of blacks, whites, latinos, etc as compared to 60 to 70% white and the rest minorities.

It also will explain some white growth in Passaic county as more middle eastern/african Muslims move into that area. I don't know if these people should be classified as white or not (since I dont know 100% of their original as I do with most whites/latinos)but I would be curious to see what their numbers would be.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
Jesus Christ
This whole anti-white people schtick is going a bit too far. I hate to tell ya, we're not the root of all evil in America.

[ Parent ]
how is that anti-white?
lots of people like diversity, and more to the point of this blog, America becoming minority-majority would obviously benefit Democrats.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I second your comment Ireland
Also not lost on me is the irony of someone whose handle suggests progressiveness on alternative lifestyle issues (an admirable position), yet he cheers the reduction of their  biggest supporters.
http://articles.latimes.com/20...  
[ Parent ]
Irrelevant and unnecessary...
the higher the minority percentage, the better the Democrats do. from that perspective the comment was completely harmless. why are we freaking out about this and bringing the poster's sexuality into it?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
sorry
The poster casually made a hateful statement about a segment of my population below, but I responded to this one first.  
[ Parent ]
I hope there will be a time in the future
where all Americans feel able to refer to themselves as Americans.

btw, what is a "Guido," other than a male name common to Italians? I see the Wikipedia definition, but I'm not sure about it, ref http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G...  

[ Parent ]
A stereotypical kind of Italian-American male
made popular recently by the people on Jersey Shore. Muscled (probably due to steroids) and tanned to a bright orange, gaudy clothes, product-laden hair, gold chains, generally acts like a royal douchebag.
[ Parent ]
Most of those fools
on that dumb show are from NY.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I took that as a pro-Immigration statement
as well as a statement on how current demographic trends will benefit Democratic candidates in the future.
[ Parent ]
For conservatives, "pro-immigration" automatically is "anti-white"......
Make no mistake, to conservatives life is a zero-sum game, and race is among their most important of competitions they are determined to win.

I'm not surprised by Ireland's reaction at all, that reflects right-wingers.  And it's one of an infinite number of illustrations of why people of color don't vote Repubilcan.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I was trying to be subtle, n/t

[ Parent ]
Gee
n/t

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I'm
sorry but how was my comment racist in any way?

All I said was that I cant wait for the way the this country becomes more diverse and less White Anglo Saxon Protestant. Is there any harm in saying that?

This country was ruled by "WASPs" this it started and as a history person I merely suggested that it would be quite interesting to see what would happen when "WASPs" are no longer a majority bt rather a plurality.  

This nation has always been referred to as the "mixing pot", which it is but minorities have never been close to the number of whites. The day minorities outnumber whites is the day I believe we can truly call ourselves a "mixing pot".

And not to mention states like Virginia, Texas, Georgie, Arizona, etc etc etc will become solid Blue as long as the GOP continues its anti-immigrant sentiment  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
I second this comment
Especially the most relevant portion involving electoral politics. More minorities= more democrats= yay!
also important is the lack of minority representation in the Senate and governorships that would undoubtely increase as minority percentages grow.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
[ Parent ]
Dunno, but many Hispanics classify themselves as White.

[ Parent ]
Thats true, but
in this case - and with regards to the census as a whole - "white" Hispanics (or for that matter "black" or other "non-white" Hispanics) all count as minorities.  

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
do Hispanics who call themselves white
vote more like whites in the population overall?
[ Parent ]
I am half mexican half canadian, and was born here in the US
I, for the most part, consider myself white, and look white.  I'm probably a bad example, but I would say that mexican "whites" probably vote in higher numbers than those who would be considered just mexican american/

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Perhaps
 but I don't know of any study that has measured such a discrepancy.

Part of the problem, of course, is that there is no racial category that logically fits for a Mexican, so many just say white. You really have to actively identify yourself as "other race." Its easier - and probably more comfortable for many - just to identify as white. Your other choices are black, Asian, or Native American (none of which make much sense for someone from Mexico or El Salvador, even some with indigenous ancestry).

WA-07, 34 years old

[ Parent ]
Interesting question
I wonder if anyone's looked into it.  I have read that multiracial voters tend to display political characteristics of the race/ethnicity they most identify with.  Not the same thing, but similar.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
FYI, "Asians" in Edison are mostly Indian-American......
Edison has a huge South Asian, mostly Indian, population, and I believe even had an Indian-American mayor at one point.  Northern NJ also has been a focal point of bigotry and violence against South Asians, although maybe that's lessened in recent years...it was a big problem in the 90s.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Is there a large Korean population too?
Edison recently had a Korean mayor, Jun Choi, but he lost his primary in 2009.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Made me look
Still don't know the population details -- but found this interesting article from the American Prospect of all places http://www.prospect.org/cs/art...  

(1/3 at that time was Asian American)

apparently, Asian American leaders around the state -- and Union leaders started organizing for Choi after this bit of race baiting:

"Would you really vote for someone named Jun Choi?" asked New Jersey shock jock Craig Carton on the radio. "We're forgetting the fact that we're Americans ... No specific minority group or foreign group should ever, ever dictate the outcome of an American election."

Apparently, the campaign also got a boost from one African American Senator from Illinois.

[ Parent ]
Roland Burris?

[ Parent ]
Nah, Obama.
This election was several years ago.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
California electoral vote measure moves forward
"Secretary of State Debra Bowen today cleared conservative activist Ted Costa to start collecting petition signatures for a proposed ballot measure that, if approved by voters, would split California's presidential Electoral College votes starting next year." http://www.ibabuzz.com/politic...

The rightwing has failed a couple times in the last couple years getting this shit on the ballot. But this Costa guy has successfully done other initiatives. And there's probably enough misleading other stuff in the proposed proposition to fool people into signing the petition.
I think this would be really tempting for a Rove-type operator to fund, a longshot for sure but a huge potential payoff.

What
ever happened to the Democrats attempt to do the same with North Carolina?  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
GOP
controls the NC state legislature so that won't happen now.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
IIRC
Dems dropped this (or perhaps it was a similar effort in CO, or both) precisely because they didn't want to give fodder to this effort in places like CA. And then, of course, Obama won NC anyway.
[ Parent ]
I think it came about in 2004 actually.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
The Colorado one was in 2004, North Carolina was in 2007
If memory serves the Colorado proposal was a referendum.  Many Dems backed it until it looked like Kerry could win the state, and then it lost in a landslide.

The North Carolina plan was proposed by the legislature.  When the Republican's California idea came about Howard Dean told North Carolina not to do it since it would only encourage the Republicans and make it harder to oppose it.  As a result the North Carolina idea went nowhere.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Yep
That's how I remember it, too.
[ Parent ]
I highly doubt this will ever pass.
People aren't idiots; they know exactly what the electoral implications of this are (i.e. a plain partisan move to hurt Democrats).

http://mypolitikal.com/
[ Parent ]
They want it on the Feb ballot...
... along with the presidential primary. Since Republicans will have the only contested primary there very well could be more Republicans than Democrats voting. This thing could pass.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
But
Could he get enough valid signatures?  
[ Parent ]
That's $64,000 question
As long as we are playing what if, other states Obama won like Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio could also change their systems without the need of a initiative since Republicans control all three branches. Not likely but it is possible.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Nah
Why would they do that when they think they could win them?
[ Parent ]
The previous version of this initiative didn't
But I don't know whether it was due to lack of funding or lack of support.
[ Parent ]
Good question, but also,
will it not be tied up in legal battles so as to prevent it from having an effect on the 2012 election? Rightly or wrongly, if this thing does advance to the point where it becomes a legitimate threat, I'd imagine the Democrats would do whatever it takes to throw up every roadblock they could.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
A strong no campaign would be created to prepare for that
There are plenty of Democrats that would fund and support the no effort. That would bring out enough people to defeat it.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
No doubt
And we'd better all hope the NO campaign is way better run than the totally inept No On Prop 8 effort was.
[ Parent ]
Ughhh
don't bring up Prop 8 lol

Too many bad memories  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
Politics aside
It might be good for California. There was a diary last week that showed how low turnout there was, so maybe if presidential nominees actually targeted the state more people would get out and vote (or mail in their vote.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
At this point, I kind of just wish
we'd do away with the Electoral College. What's the reason for having it? More than half of the states barely see any attention as is. It's not as if Wyoming, Rhode Island, Maryland, or Idaho, for instance, ever get noticed by either side.

Perhaps we'd eventually settle into the a similar pattern where only a select number of states get the attention of the two parties, but at least at first, I'd imagine you'd see a fairly massive effort to find every last vote in all sorts of electoral nooks and crannies. After all, why wouldn't the Republicans send people to mobilize voters in New York City as well as upstate New York? Why wouldn't the Democrats send people to the suburbs of Cincinnati as well as the inside of the city? Not every area would see the same level of attention, of course, since areas do have a natural lean and there are simply more people in some places than in others. But since both sides have access to enormous sums of money, and since the initial stages would probably involve registration and mobilization as much as advertising, I don't think any area would be totally ignored.

On that note, I've said this before, but I think it's worth repeating: I think we may be headed towards something similar in the next few cycles. Lots of traditional swing states have tons of unregistered voters, but some, like Ohio, are nearing the point where pretty much everyone who might ever be interested in registered has done so. There will always be births and deaths, moves in and out of state, and people becoming of legal age, but that's all easily dealt with from cycle to cycle. Basically, we're approaching the point where the pool of voters in some states will be more or less static, or so I think. And if that's the case, then the campaigns will probably have to go to new states.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think the idea of the electoral system is that
Small states don't get ignored and big states don't overwhelm the small ones in importance.  I think it would be bad if only California would do this mostly because it gives one party an unfair advantage, partly  it would make smaller states irrelevant and probably decrease turnout there.

This is a terrible Idea, is what I'm getting at.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Turnout's pretty low in Texas too ;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I wonder who that would benefit
If both Texas and California changed to the Nebraska/Maine system. In 2008, it would have been a complete wash, as Obama carried 11 Texas districts and McCain carried 11 California districts.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
It would undoubtedly benefit Republicans
First, California is going to have non partisan redistricting from now on while Texas GOP will Gerrymander the hell out of that state.
Second, obviously California is much bigger which gives Republicans more opportunities to carry districts.
[ Parent ]
But Texas is already max-gerrymandered
Democrats won't have fewer than 11 districts they will be favored in come 2012. A lot of those McCain districts in California, however, are very tenuous. I don't think that making the change in both CA and TX would change the electoral math by more than 3-4 votes in either direction.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Maybe in the future
If and when Texas becomes a swing state, this will benefit Democrats. But in the short term, this will benefit Republicans.  2008 was a Big Democratic year and it was a wash. In 2000, a neutral year, Bush won 16 congressional districts out of California. It would take several decades before this can benefit Democrats at all.  
[ Parent ]
Nonpartisan gerrymandering would favor a Dem in CA
To oversimplify it now, the dummymander has 60%+ Dem districts and 50%+ Rep districts.  CA is much more Dem on Prez level than a Congress level.  

Look at the 2008 county map.  No gerrymandering at all, and the districts that McCain could have carried would have been in the single digits.

Still, its a screwy idea without at least nonpartisan gerrymandering country-wide.

[ Parent ]
I can't understand this comment
First, "nonpartisan gerrymandering" is pretty much a contradiction in terms. Perhaps you mean "bipartisan gerrymandering?"

Second, a "dummymander" is a partisan gerrymander that backfires, usually causing you to have even fewer seats than you would have expected under a fair map. CA's 2002 map doesn't really meet that description.  

[ Parent ]
I mean non-partisan redistricting
But the map obviously meets the definition of a dummymander.

It would be very, very difficult to make a map less favorable to Democrats.  The map backfired terribly, not in losing seats, but in not gaining seats while the state hurled itself to the left.

And finally, I've amde this point before, but the plain evidence of the extreme dummyander nature of the map is if you do nothing at all to the current blue areas of the map, there are at least two blue districts that could be made from merely rearranging the red districts (in the northeast and in the Orange/Riverside areas).

It was completely stupid to not at least try to gather the "most blue" of those red areas into one district.  It is an absolute textbook example of a "don't do this" dummymander.

[ Parent ]
Only if you want to create
a new definition of "dummymander." I only understand it to mean that you win fewer seats than you expected. That is not the case in this example.  
[ Parent ]
"Expected" is not part of the definition
If Rhode Island was redistricted to make one blue and one red seat, and that is how it turned out, that would be a dummymander.

A dummymander produces less seats for the party in power than should be.  It is a fail of logic and action.

In this case Dems made a choice to not gerrymander areas where they could have made (possible) blue seats, without hurting any existing Dems.  It took a complete dummymander to limit Dem gains in the past decade to a couple seats.

And then of course the other measure is, it would have been hard to draw districts of any kind that produced less Dem seats.  That's as dummy as it can get.

[ Parent ]
The originators of the term define it
as follows (PDF):

"A dummymander is a gerrymander by one party that, over the course of the decade, benefits the other party, and actually looks as if it was designed by that party rather than the party in power." (italics added)

Now, it may seem like a mere technical quibble, but a bipartisan gerrymander (as this was) by definition cannot be a dummymander. My understanding of the term is reinforced by the examples the authors use: all involve one party drawing as many of its own seats as possible.

Now, if the Republicans had drawn the California map, you might have a point. And I do actually agree with you that the Democrats agreed to too many concessions. But the map is not a dummymander.  

[ Parent ]
Was the 2000 map also a Dummymander?
Point is, in a neutral year like 2000, Republicans won more congressional districts in California then Democrats in Texas. Given  Bush was from Texas but it's still something like 16 to 8 so I don't see how it would not benefit Republicans in the short term.
[ Parent ]
Not True
On the state level of course. Democrats held their 17-13 lead in the Congressional delegation despite losing the popular vote by 51-43. Hence why so many Republicans were quite aggrieved by the court ordered map in 2001.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
See above
Even if you ignore every blue district, the red districts could have been reshaped to make at least two new blue districts.

You simply can't dummymander worse than a situation where you have nothing to lose.

[ Parent ]
Why haven't the Republicans done this with Michigan?
Consider that Bush won 10/15 districts while losing the state in 2004, it would be a great boon to then. Maybe there's the concern that it could result in a state-level backlash, especially if it ever actually makes a difference.
[ Parent ]
The potential for backlash is the reason
Anything that would give most electoral votes to the overall loser of the popular vote would not set right with a lot people.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Great idea, but shouldn't be done state by state
Unfortunatley it is not withing the Federal governments right to determine how EVs are allocated by the states, I honestly think that having all 50 states allocate EVs by CD AND have CDs all drawn by non-partisan Iowa style committees would do wonders for our democracy, but it would almost certainly require a constitutional amendments since doing it ad hoc would likely be a disaster...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Why is this better
Than just having every state throw its electoral college behind the winner of the national popular vote?  I mean, what makes 435 constituencies better than both 51 and 380 million?

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Chicago mayor
Haven't been following it closely, but I'm curious to see how things shake out.

Here's a funny t-shirt for Chicagoans.

That's a great t-shirt!
I felt the same way when I lived in Minneapolis, and I would meet people here in Indiana who said "Yeah, I'm from Minneapolis, too". I'd ask them what neighborhood they were from and they would say "Eden Prarie" or "Burnsville," and I'd roll my eyes and think "Yeah, you're a Minnesotan, but not from Minneapolis"!  Frequent poster here Andrew knows what I'm saying!!

And for the record, I was born and raised off of 54th and Lyndale in south Minneapolis!

[ Parent ]
A pet peeve
I went around the room of a class I was TAing, asking my students where they were from.  "I'm from Boston." "Oh, where in Boston?" "Well, outside Boston..."  Pretty much everyone was from "Detroit" or "Atlanta" or "Minneapolis" or "Los Angeles"...(one actually was from Los Angeles).

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
Detroit
People from Detroit suburbs almost never say they're from Detroit. In my experience they would always say exactly where they're from. The original poster is correct that people from Chicago suburbs always say they're from Chicago, though.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
New Yorkers
 Usually say they are from New York unless they are talking to other New Yorkers (outside of New York.) Not many people say they are from Brooklyn though. People in New Jersey though say they are from New Jersey and many New Jersey people I know are proud of it.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Thats
right!

I'm a jerseyyy boy all the way

hate Guidos though

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
I'm a Guido
So much for No H8.  sigh.
[ Parent ]
I generally say "metro Detroit" when out-of-state
but, yeah, as whole we surbanites do everything we can to avoid identifying with Detroit. It's one of the worse pathologies of this area.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
I live 6 blocks from the Chicago border
I dont bother telling people im from a suburb, i just say chicago. it sounds better

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
[ Parent ]
L.A. is easier for me to say than Rancho Cucamonga.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I often say I'm from L.A.
because almost nobody I know has heard of Rancho Cucamonga and I don't really like explaining every time.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I usually say I'm from around Long Beach
I am from Artesia and nobody from outside the area has heard of it unless you are Indian or Pakistani because the main street has tons of sari shops and Indian restaurants. Long Beach is the closest big city to home, the eastern border is only about 4 miles away, then Anaheim is about 10 miles away and downtown L.A. 20.  

27, Dem, CA-39 (home), OR-04 (school)
[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
This happens all the time, of course, with people from "New York." When I ask them where in New York, people from the burbs get that slightly sheepish look and say, "Oh, well, really from Long Island" or Westchester, etc.

People are also often amazed when I tell them I'm a born and raised New Yorker (for reals). Feels like there aren't many of us, though of course there have to be quite a few!

[ Parent ]
I'm sort of guilty of that
Technically, I don't live in "Des Moines," I live about a mile away from the city limits in Iowa's only inner-ring suburb.

When people who know central Iowa ask me where I'm from, I will say the name of my neighborhood. With other Iowans, I say "Des Moines area" or "a Des Moines suburb." With out of staters I've been known to tell people I'm from Des Moines, because they'll have heard of it.

[ Parent ]
Hahaha
so true. my roommate freshman year was from the city of Chicago and felt that way. One of my friends is from Elk Grove and I had to tell him to say he's from Chicagoland.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
When you're from a tiny town in a tiny county in a sparsely populated part of the state
You don't have this problem!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Oh
Yeah you do. There is nothing than I hate more than someone from Depaw saying their from Corydon. Or people from New Middletown saying there from Corydon. You know what I'm talking about.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
At least Depauw and such have post offices!
If any of these antics go on in Crawford, it's just people claiming they're from a town that has a gas station or a post office. Instead of, uh... Hogtown or something...  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Ha.
I actually have it kind of lucky. I live ten minuets from a wal mart and the interstate. I guess by Crawford standards I'm city folk. Oh and I don't think I've ever hooked up with any cousins. Yeah I went there. Lol. But hey you guys have a cave, that's something!  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Was expecting this would be the song for the open thread.


NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
I Dave's-Apped the current NJ State Senate districts
If you want a copy then email me.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
Chicago
mayorial race quickly becoming a circus. (I posted this video in the Daily digest post for yesterday early this morning but in case you didn't see it....) And I thought Rahm would be the first to lose his cool on the campaign trail.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12

"You didn't know where I was for the past 20 years, because you were strung out of crack"
I literally laughed out loud when Braun said that. Talk about going off.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
This resembles my reaction on listening to the clip
[ Parent ]
Maybe Rahm won't be so bad . . .
He's not who I want, but these characters, nobody should want.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Sad to say, I thought the same thing
CMB looks like a fool.
[ Parent ]
I happen to think Chico's a fine candidate
Emanuel seems to be sleepwalking through this campaign; his debate performance was wholly lifeless. Chico, on the flip side, seems like a moderate, competent, law and order, business-friendly candidate who's simply more likable than Emanuel. Del Valle, too, seems like a nice guy, though I don't get the sense he'd be much of an aggressive leader. I like Moseley Braun, but she is a trainwreck, and an entertaining one at that. She's a good pundit and was fitting for U.S. Ambassador, but she's entirely unfiltered and has no leadership skills.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Romney leads in AZ
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Maybe when we get PPP results from NM and CO next week we can say for certain whether Romney has the edge out west.

Perhaps the whisper campaigns have to go into full swing
before the biases against Huckabee/Romney come to the fore.

aka, only when candidates go into full Iowa mode will people in Baptist communities remember -- "oh yeah, that Romney dude is the heathen Mormon from Massachusetts"

and Mormons out west will remember -- "oh yeah, that Huckabee dude doesn't even recognize the thirteenth tribe"

[ Parent ]
I sometimes wonder
how much of that factor is already set in. After all, their religious affiliations are not exactly a secret, and if you are the sort of person that associates yourself with one ethnic group or another and are politically active, wouldn't you know? And wouldn't it also come in conversation?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think it'll be Romney versus ?
Romney won Massachusetts, Michigan, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Maine, and Alaska in 2008.  He finished second to McCain in New Hampshire, California, New York, Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, Florida, New Jersey, and Arizona.  He finished second to Huckabee in Iowa.

I have the feeling Romney is going to be a formidible contender on the Republican side.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
If Huckabee continues to show national strength
relatively speaking....

I'd be most concerned about a Huckabee-Huntsman ticket. I think with such a ticket, R --might-- take a larger share of "Reagan Democrats" without losing more of the mountain west.  

[ Parent ]
The thing is, I think Romney would have such a leg-up in the big Super Tuesday states
I suspect you'd find a map not unlike McCain/Huckabee, just with the latter likely winning South Carolina (and perhaps Missouri) this time around. The more intriguing showdown would be if Gingrich upsets in Iowa. I think he could be a real force in some of the bigger states, given the rank-and-file isn't as wary of him as they are of Huckabee. If Daniels won Iowa, he could John Kerry his way through the rest of the primaries.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Huckabee has always been the one that concerns me the most.
He's just so likeable.  Hell, I found myself liking him in 2008.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Likeable?
I have just the opposite reaction. It is probably my own personal extreme distaste for mixing politics and religion but I really can not stand Huckabee.

The potential GOP candidate that scares me most would be Huntsman but I don't see today's GOP nominating him.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Loosely speaking -- if you took the religion out of the Huckabee
you'd get a politician who sounds like a populist midwestern D (even though most of Huckabee's policies would be standard Republican fare).
[ Parent ]
Huckabee hasn't been showing leads in states the GOP needs to win
In NC and VA, the last polls showed him trailing Obama. Of course that can change, but at this point, I don't see Huckabee as much of a concern.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Curious about the general election numbers
I think there is a strong chance that Obama leads all comers in AZ

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
He doesn't
[ Parent ]
State Legislative Elections
I don't know anything about the specifics of these races, so I won't comment about that, but I'd like to say a few things in a general sense:

1. Now might be a perfect time to experiment. At the risk of sounding way too vague, I'd rather the Democrats focus on mobilization rather than advertising. The latter is important, but more as a supplement, I think, rather than constituting the entire strategy. Perhaps they are already doing stuff that I am not aware of, but it'd be interesting to take a few of the races and try something different. I doubt that they are going to gamble on anything resembling a toss up, but perhaps they could take a long shot race and try something new to see what happens. There's got to be a couple of fairly Republican seats in Louisiana where a loss is fairly likely that would be good for testing out strategies.

2. Run a real candidate in every seat. This will certainly cost money, but unless a district never has a Democratic candidate get over 20 percent or something similar, it's worth making the Republicans work to keep their seats. If nothing else, we will be strengthening the party for the future. Since we won't have to worry about sacrificing resources for more winnable races, now is as good a time as any to focus on that.

3. Like I said, I don't know anything about the specifics for these races, but imagine what a nice talking point it would make for the Democrats to do better than expected or even pretty damn great in any sense. If nothing else, it'd give a morale boost to a lot of people in the party and it give us a few days worth of "Are the Democrats back?"-type stories.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

So proud of myself!
I just finished my first ever redistricting map after about 20 abandoned tries! Now to figure out how to post it!  
Sign up for photobucket or flickr.
I use photobucket, it even gives you ready-made HTML links you can use to post things.  
[ Parent ]
thanks

[ Parent ]
nice
I hope it was one of the big states if it took 20 attempts.

I agree, photobucket works very well.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Nope
Louisiana. I messed with it on and off for a few months, always ended up disgusted with how the map would look, and just stop.  
[ Parent ]
don't worry
I actually feel you on that one.
it's especially frustrating when you finish a big state and you have to go searching for all the microscopic precincts you missed...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Chicago-Mayor: Internal polling shows Rahm stuck in low-40s, Chico inching past Braun
http://capitolfax.com/2011/02/...

If this is the case, the real race to watch on election night is who wins the #2 run-off slot. I still have my doubts Chico can win it with Del Valle still running, but we'll see. Braun would have to be bleeding considerable support among African-Americans to not be the runner-up; winning just 50% of them automatically gets her to the 20% mark.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Wow
Rahm's stuck in the low-40's? Not good! Then again he's been acting like someone who thinks he has this in the bag, he should be working as hard as he did as head of the DCCC in the 2005-2006 cycle. Wouldn't be a surprise if Chico passes Braun for 2nd. Especially since Braun decided it was necessary to call one of her opponents a crackhead during a debate. That meltdown makes Chico and Emanuel look like the adults in the room.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
If Chico can finish in second place,
 it will be an interesting runoff election (assuming the poll is correct and Emanuel is <50%).
I think most of the anti-Emanuel votes could go to him in he runoff and could make it respectably close, tho Rahm would likely still win.
If CMB finishes in second, the runoff would be a blowout for Emanuel. She is just awful and her crack insult makes her worst than awful.
[ Parent ]
Chico could be a serious threat in a run-off vs. Emanuel
Especially if Emanuel only manages something like 42% in the first round. Chico has a solid war chest, ample union support, he would coalesce the Hispanic vote rather handily and Braun/Del Valle would undoubtedly back him. Braun, on the other hand, is simply too polarizing to be competitive, but I still think she could totally place 2nd in the first round, and that would give Emanuel a huge sigh of relief. Predix...

White - 45%
Black - 40%
Hispanic - 15%

(in all fairness, I'm not overly confident about this model.)

Emanuel - 59/40/30 = 48%
Chico - 22/7/31 = 18%
Moseley Braun - 11/31/12 = 19%
Del Valle - 6/4/25 = 9%
Others - 2/7/2 = 6%

Emanuel - 64/59/30 = 58%
Chico - 36/41/70 = 42%

Emanuel - 81/41/56 = 60%
Moseley Braun - 19/59/44 = 40%

Hrm...not what I expected, exactly.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
MayorEmanual
I want the next Mayor of Chicago to be whoever has the spoof Twitter name @MayorEmanual .

http://twitter.com/#!/MayorEma...

Your next motherfucking mayor. Get used to it, assholes.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Phil Bryant ads
Anyone else see them? Can't imagine too many SSPers voting for him.  
Are they showing up on Google ads?
For whatever reason, a lot of Republican ads were getting served via Google last cycle. This caused some consternation in the comments, because, you know, where the hell were Dems when it came to online advertising? Of course, we got killed anyway, so I doubt a few more Google ads would have changed the calculus. But I think it was probably a symptom, if not a cause.
[ Parent ]
Oh yes
I remember an NRCC google ad saying "Stop Socialism. Vote Republican." Or something along those lines.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
on cagle.com
they have mediamax or something ads saying "repeal obama."  not "obamacare," but obama.  he can be defeated, impeached and with a constitutional amendment, recalled, but not repealed.  they seem demeaning, bu thta's just my 2 cents.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Oh yeah.
That wanna-be online rag, Newsmax.

Yeah, I saw their ads.  "Repeal Obama?", "Obamacare?  Stop him!", and what not.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Yes
It was under Google.  
[ Parent ]
Speaking of which,
is there any candidate running Super Bowl ads this year? Snyder's Super Bowl ad was the thing that got him off the ground, and I think that might invite a few imitators who have the $ for it.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
That would come next year
They're not gonna waste money on Super Bowl ads 2 yrs before the election.  
[ Parent ]
If there is a '12 Super Bowl
There's talk about a lockout....

In any case, I'm impressed that Fox rejected the Tebow ad... though they're sure hyping the O'Reilly-Obama thang.

[ Parent ]
I didn't know Tebow was trying to do an ad again
Most of the "culture warring" this week has been centered on a seemingly out of the blue anti-porn campaign led by one of the Packers' defensive linemen. You can't make this stuff up.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Can't they just play the damn game.
Taking moral stances just makes the 40-80% of people that disagree with you dislike you.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Agreed!
The superbowl is the time when people forget about this bullcrap and unite in our love of the game.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I could see Phil Moffett or Dave Dennis
doing it to generate some buzz though.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
Kerry: I'm not interesting in SoS post.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/theno...

The Globe got it wrong.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

LV-Mayor: Carolyn Goodman leads all in poll.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

The GOP polled it to see if Goodman (a Dem-turned-indie like her (ex?)husband) would siphon off enough Dem votes to let a Republican win.  This poll shows that it is not the case.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Correction
They're still married.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Odd, considering
that Oscar hangs out with show girls.  Las Vegas is a funny place.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Don't
forget his playboy photography shoot. It goes with the territory as Mayor of Vegas. I suppose she is used to it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Mary Landrieu running for reelection
http://www.nola.com/politics/i...

This is really early and I'm sure she could change her mind, but isn't she likely done because of Louisiana's shift to the right? Her name is well known in Louisiana so I wouldn't count her out though.

Landrieu racked in $280,000 dollars last quarter - she is definitely fundraising. (Isn't that a lot for the offseason?)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Also, according to the article, Landrieu's approval ratings remain over 50%.
nt

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Quite impressive.
That's probably in part to her putting a hold on Obama's budget director late last year until the DOI relaxed drilling restrictions.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
i don't think that Louisiana
has shifted to the right like Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia and Oklahoma have.

Louisiana's only problem was the diaspora from Katrina. Landrieu has a natural base in the state, though it's partially shifted from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. I think she can hold on providing she continues to be a thorn in the ass of the national Democratic Party.

[ Parent ]
I'd say it's both.
And I would cut out WV from that list.  They've been the same for ages.  Heck, the Democratic Party there is still very strong and control both houses of the state Legislature with lopsided margins.  However, the Dem Party there is quite conservative.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
For party itself
such "thorn in the ass" is much better then that of David Vitter-type....
[ Parent ]
That's for sure.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
She's been considered dead before and won
In 2002 the Republicans thought her runoff race was there's, calling winning her seat icing on the cake.  In 2008 she was considered in trouble by a lot of people and she won a fairly good margin.  2014 is very likely to be hard again but if there's one politician who knows how to win its her.  

Disclaimer: I volunteered for her in 2008 and Mitch in 2010.  She was the first candidate I ever canvased for.  I got lost.  It was a strange day.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
In a government
glass in high school, my teacher showed us the tape of her up against Tyrell on "Meet the Press" as an example of a politician doing all of the little things but all of the right things during a debate. She also said it was obvious the two had a lot of contempt for one another, which I had to agree with at the time.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Sorry to be nit-picky
but it's Terrell. Tyrell is the editor of the American Spectator and was thinking about running for Chicago Mayor as Republican. (it's silly, I know, but that that seriously threw me off for a minute. Shows how much of an elections geek I am.)

As a side note, I see AK-47 sometimes and have to ask myself "When did Alaska get 47 congressional districts?"

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
HAHAHAHA
Oh my god that's awesome. I need to start using that one.
[ Parent ]
$280K is impressive this far out.
She definitely has the chops.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
If Jindal runs for this, he probably unseats her
Otherwise, I don't think the Louisiana GOP bench is nearly as strong as one might suspect. Democrats seem to love Landrieu (more so than say, Charlie Melancon) and Independents seem OK with her, too. Those two elements alone should get her across the finish line, barring a high-profile, Jindal-type candidate.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I see only one scenario in which Jindal runs
There is a Republican President and he is not VP or in a cabinet position and he needs something to do for 6 years til 2020 and even then he probably wouldn't run. I think Dardenne will definitely run if he is not Gov yet. After that, if Landry is still in Congress or is AG I expect he would run. I doubt any other members of the congressional delegation would run, maybe Cassidy or Fleming, but I doubt it. Then there is Walker Hines, Suzie Terrel (lost to Landrieu in 2002), and Joe Cao, all of whom may be SoS at that time, and Scott Angelle, who may be SoS or LG. John Kennedy may give it a look too.
[ Parent ]
Kennedy's a joke and I don't think Cao could survive a statewide primary
There are others, sure, but, unless Landrieu's approval heads into Ben Nelson territory, she should be OK here, methinks.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
A recent poll put Kennedy's approval at 61%. He's no joke.
http://www.2theadvocate.com/bl...


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Jungle primaries
Which are best for the moderate candidates. Landrieu will not be OK. At this point, she would be more likely to lose than to win against an Angelle or Dardenne.  
[ Parent ]
Why do you think she would be likely to lose if her approval ratings are over 50?
nt

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
It's Louisiana.
See RI in 06.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Its for years out
She has made some very unpopular votes that once she begins to get hammered on them she will not be able to survive. As someone above me said, its Louisiana. In LA a "popular" (She's not really popular) Democrat vs a popular Republican, will lose.  
[ Parent ]
Glad you agree with me
that Scott Brown can't win reelection
[ Parent ]
Scott Brown is popular
The real type of popular.  
[ Parent ]
Not as popular as Linc Chafee was.
His approvals are a bit higher Landrieu's, his disapprovals are lower.

And in 2012, he'll be lucky to win.  He's between a rock and a hard plce.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Chaffee
Had a GOP Senate Majority, in which his seat may have been decisive in overthrowing, and a President who was universally loathed who a Democratic Majority would have helped thwart. Neither dynamic operates in Massachusetts in 2012.  

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
*does Manfred von Karma's finger wag*
Not so.  They can use the specter of a GOP majority to defeat him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The difference, of course...
There is no Steve Laffey-calibur candidate gearing to challenge Scott Brown in the GOP primary. For my money, Lincoln Chafee might well have won in 2006 had Laffey not drained his campaign of resources and energy in the primaries. By the time the general rolled out, Laffey's failed candidacy had ensured conservative Republicans wouldn't care less about whether Chafee lost or not.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
That's the only real difference I can see.
But in that primary, Chafee did not run to the right and alienate his or his father's traditional base.  He stuck to his principles and fought hard.

Also, Whitehouse wasn't some powerhouse.  He's a workhorse, but he's not that charismatic.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Good point :)

I agree too. Brown can not win against the democratic candidate what the people want.
[ Parent ]
It's too far out to make assumptions like that
We have no idea who Landrieu will face and that certainly can make all the difference.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
AL-SEN: Shelby seeking reelection in 2016
http://www2.eufaulatribune.com...

Also a little far off, but worth posting at least

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

For those of you
who, like me, scoffed at the idea of Mark Dayton running for Governor.  Here is an article from the main MN paper, the Star Tribune, on how he's doing so far.  It's short, sweet, and quite positive, and I agree whole-heartedly with it.  The legislature is about to send him a bill to lift the ban on nuclear power plants in-state and I've been thinking he'd sign to give every one a surprise, and this kind of reaffirms my belief he's playing it differently because he's about to introduce his plan for a giant tax increase.

And note the dig on Pawlenty at the end of the article.

Wow
i'm not even sure I'd veto a lift on ban of nuclear power plants.  
[ Parent ]
Couple it with a rapid shutdown
of all coal plants and I'd sign on.  
[ Parent ]
If he starts his term like a clod
and doesn't veto a terrible idea while proposing an unpopular one, I can't imagine his reputation being able to recover again.
[ Parent ]
That article says
the Republican legislature will send him a bill cuts spending by $1 billion. I'm not really sure of the scale of such a cut, but regardless, I imagine the Republicans are no in mood to increase spending on much of anything. So, why the need for the tax increase? Is it a matter of reducing the deficit or does he plan to increase spending when the Democrats take back the legislature, or is it something else entirely?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I assume
that Minnesota has been doing a large amount of cutting to their budget anyway over the last few years. Unfortunately because of the tough economic times we're going through right now, revenue is continuing to shrink. So you have to bridge that budget deficit with tax increases and cuts in services. You can't close a budget deficit on the back of cuts alone if you have been cutting for the last few years without cutting into the bone.

Chris Christie managed to close his state's budget deficit on cuts alone I guess because NJ wasn't doing much cutting under Corzine. Same with Cuomo. Under Cuomo's budget, the budget will be reduced for the first time in 16 years. (12 of those years under George Pataki.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Well, yes,
but the way some people are talking about the proposed increases Dayton wants, I figured they were really, really large, to the point where they would go above and beyond filling a budget gap.

I'm actually curious to see what happens with Cuomo and the budget for my state. Some of what I've heard makes sense, but while there's probably more than a few things that deserve to be cut, I would guess that a lot of the problem is simply a lack of revenue because of too little economic activity. But that's a different, way off topic discussion, so that's all that I will say.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
PPP: Obama way ahead in CA.
http://www.facebook.com/notes/...

15 points over Mike Huckabee at 54-39, 20 points over Mitt Romney at 56-36, 24 points over Newt Gingrich at 58-34, and a whooping 31 points over Sarah Palin at 62-31

What allows Obama to hold his large leads is the incredible unpopularity of the Republican candidate field. None of the candidates can top a 32% favorability there- that's Mitt Romney who is, relatively speaking, the 'most popular' of the Republican candidates. 46% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him. After that it's Mike Huckabee at a 29/47 spread, Newt Gingrich at 25/55, and Sarah Palin at 28% rating her favorably and a whooping 67% saying they have a negative opinion of her.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I think the most realistic goal for a Republican here is to merely break 40%
Despite the PPP data, I suspect Romney, who's kinda of the Whitman/Fiorina vein, is by far the strongest of the four stooges in California. I think, for instance, he could flip San Diego. I actually think Gingrich is probably second-best, then Huckabee, and then Palin wouldn't even break 35% here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
While my instinct is to agree with you
why do you think that Huckabee is performing so much better (relative to the standard alternatives) in all of these PPP polls?
[ Parent ]
Small point, Romney was featured in several Whitman/Fiorina commercials
and those did not make people like you.

I expect Christian helps Huck and hurts Romney in CA, as getting the northeast and central valley to "stay home" and support a Republican requires some reason to do so.  Huck has some appeal to religious and small townish voters.  Romney has no constituency in California, with the exception of Newport Beach maybe.

[ Parent ]
Newport Beach could work
FWIW, John Campbell who represents Newport Beach endorsed Romney in 2008.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I mean, Huckabee garnered an entire 12% in the '08 GOP primary there
So, I don't foresee any evidence that the state's party base is more enthused to get around Huckabee than Romney. If you look at the '08 primary on a county-by-county basis, Huckabee's strength was in the rural north...where, of course, nobody lives. He didn't even break double-digits in San Diego, where Romney held McCain to a virtual tie.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Huckabee is fool's gold......
I think Huckabee's relative "strength" in these polls comes solely from being juxtaposed against the likes of Palin and Gingrich, who everyone hates.  Same with Romney, it's all comparative.  Make me choose between mushrooms, olives, eggplant, and broccoli, and I'll pick broccoli because I hate the others, even though broccoli isn't something I pick out of a crowd.  For voters who are disenchanted with Obama, which is just about everyone among the 46% who voted for McCain, Huckabee and Romney just look good compared to the others.

Meanwhile, people like Pawlenty and Thune and Daniels just have such poor name recognition that people are hesitant to pick them.  But Huckabee and Romney are vaguely familiar--only vaguely, but that's more than not at all--from last time.

I think in a one-on-one vs. Obama, Huckabee would be exposed and not perform so hot at all.

All that said, I dismiss Huckabee and Romney as unable to win the nomination.  Romney has all the same baggage as last time plus RomneyCare is now a chain on his leg.  And Huckabee probably won't run at all, and can't build on his fundie right base if he does simply because he won't raise enough money to play serious ball.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Romney should pick up some votes in OC and San Diego Huck can't get
but I see Romney losing votes in the Central Valley, Santa Maria and San Luis Obispo that Huck could get.  I'd assume Huck will get at least some conservative/religous Latino votes in those areas that wouldn't have any reason to vote for Romney.

Palin could do a bit better in the northeast than the rest of the state, since it is slightly like Idaho with more don't tread on me sentiment.  I have to disagree about Gingrich.  I just don't see any constituency in California where Gingrich would be the top performer among the stooges.  (He would overperform Palin as many OC republicans will not vote for a pure clown, but I can't see him doing as well as Romney or Huck without some group of voters that will vote for him moreso than them.)

[ Parent ]
Romney
has some appeal to Hispanic voters that Huckabee doesn't have though. It's strange but Mormons have an odd connection with Mexican-Americans that a Protestant could never have via Mormon missionaries to Mexico and their family tradition that's similar in a few ways. Not to mention Romney's dad was born in Mexico. Huckabee has the compassionate Christian vibe going on that plays well with Hispanics but I have the feeling that either one of these candidates strengths will be destroyed by GOP primary hatemongering. Remember how McCain was supposed to play strong with Latinos via his advocacy for them? Yeah, that didn't work out...
[ Parent ]
Probably a matter of relatively.
I don't know if anyone suggested that McCain was going to win Hispanics. Instead, I bet most thought he'd simply hold his own and continue the strong performance. He didn't do that nationally, but it wouldn't have shocked me to see him do even worse amongst Hispanics in the Southwest had he not been decent on immigration.

I'm not sure about Romney's connection to Hispanics or anything else like that, but I am curious to see how immigration plays as an issue in the Republican primaries. If these guys have to run to the far right on this, it'll almost certainly hurt them in states like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and others. That is, if they can run any farther to the right. Is something like that possible for John Thune? I can only imagine the ads highlighting these stances. They don't even have to be polemical to be devastating.

http://www.ontheissues.org/sen...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
*relativism.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Working on my first redistricting map!
It's a bit unnecessary to post here about it, as I'm not going to publish it to the internet anyway- I rather want to go the party-internal route and get a couple of state legislators and the Democrats on the redistricting commission to take a look at it, but still- I'm working on a redistricting of the MT State Legislature. It's still a bit early, as they're redistricting in 2014, but still- the commission has already been named, so there's no reason not to go at it.

The tedious thing is, really, matching precinct data up with the state legislative districts I drew, and of course, precints and census blocks overlap.

How would it be possible, by the way, to provide Dave with partisan data for MT? I'd be willing to collect it, it's 'only' about 3900 precincts.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

Totally possible
See here. If you have problems with it, I can offer advice. I'm about halfway through doing Michigan, so I have experience.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
Thanks, but it doesn't look like
precincts and the Census voting districts are the same. One would have to go the estimate route, taking weighted averages of precincts that are included in a VTD.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Didn't think about that
Yeah, the census-block-only states aren't easily doable, even if you do have a good data source.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
IN-Sen: Mourdock to announce campaign Feb. 22

Doesn't come as a surprise, but now we have a date. My sources inside Lugar's campaign that don't actually exist inform me that his official response will be to send Mourdock a fax consisting entirely of the message "COME AT ME BRO". 



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
Not certain why the CJ has changed their article to "may challenge"
But most other sites have Mourdock's campaign as a definite.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Are you serious?
At the risk of asking a stupid question because my sarcasm meter is off, I gotta ask, are you being serious? If so, that's pretty awesome. Hell, I might throw some money Lugar's way just because of him doing that.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think you're sarcasm meter is off
My sources inside Lugar's campaign that don't actually exist


30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
Yikes, it's been a slow mental weekend.
This is almost as bad as the time I was talking to a professor in college outside the lecture hall before class started. He asked me why I seemed annoyed and I mentioned that I couldn't find my watch and was worried that I threw it in the garbage while clearing my tray in the dining hall. His words: "Uh, isn't that a different watch than the one on your left arm?"


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
*is that


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Heh
He might as well do that given how he's acted so far, but unfortunately, it isn't actually true. Yet, anyways. I'm holding out hope.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
You see this sort of thing
on television shows, and even though you doubt it happens in real life, you kind of want it to. It just seems...refreshing. I'd rather it happen when Democrats were responding to Republicans, but I would take it from when a Republican responds to a Teabagger.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
aol will buy huffpo
I bring this up in hopes they'll either fix the damage huffpo did to pollster, or pollster will somehow be freed and go back to what it once was.  

http://content.usatoday.com/co...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

They're also
putting Huffington as President and Editor-in-Chief of much of their content.

AOL has been dissolving for a decade and they know this is the only way to survive at this point.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Check out this link about Aol's dirty little secret,
interestingly enough from The Huffington Post. It turns out that a large part of Aol's business model consists of having old people pay for Internet services they don't really need. You stay classy, Aol.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Anyway, a few things. This is probably a very, very good move for everyone involved. Aol picks up a surging and powerful competitor for what is likely a dirt cheap price, while Her Royal Highness of the Internet Arianna Huffington gets a lot of money to start raiding the traditional media outlets even more than she's been doing and gets an already strong roster of blogs. It'll be interesting to see how the dizzying array of properties are joined together, if only because there looks to be a lot of overlap. Oh yeah, I hope this means The Huffington Post's interface is cleaned up. It gives me a headache to look at that site.

More than anything, though, I hope there's an investigative focus, particularly for finance. There's a lot of crap that has yet to be reported on, I think, and even more that is happening now and will need to be reported on in the future. It'd be nice to see a high profile outlet grab the mantle of this stuff.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Former Arizona Governor Bob Riley Considering Presidential Bid
This makes sense, upon first glance, if only because we keep hearing that the nomination will probably go to someone we aren't hearing about right now. But there's precious few people who fit the bill of unknown presidential contenders who could also win the nomination, or so it seems to me.  

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Oh Jesus Christ, I meant Alabama.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Lead Balloon
I gotta think one thing will pretty much torpedo this: Siegelman. Riley still hasn't broken free of that controversy.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
I was wondering what, if any, effect
that would have on him. But while I remember reading all sorts of awful things about the case, I don't remember how he fit in, so that's why I didn't bring it up.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
He was never directly impacted
...but still a little too close for comfort to the major players there, especially when examined under the ultra-fine microscope of a pres campaign.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
Jane Harmon to resign from Congress
Maybe Maureen Reagan will take another shot at her seat, oh wait...nevermind!

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
Did you
really have to take a shot at a dead person? Really?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
As David Hyde Pierce said at Maureen's funeral
"When she was given lemons, she did not make lemonade. She took the lemons, threw them back and said, 'Oh, no you don't.'"

Let's just say that's the "nice" version of how I feel about your insult.

[ Parent ]
Awful to speak ill of someone who was
taken from her family way too young like that.

Special election gives us an interesting, unique barometer of the electoral mood because we had a special election recently in a similar district, at least on the surface - CA-10.  Will be looking to see how Dems do in relation to Garamendi's 10 point win over David Harmer.  A lot of variables, including candidate strength, could dilute the comparison though.    

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
The guy who had the seat before
Harman, Steve Kuykendall really wants to run. He was on my campus last year talking about it.

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
Finally...
A liberal to represent Venice Beach!

Torrance, the Boeing-enriched enclave of the 36th, has a moderating effect on the district so it'll be interesting to see how this shakes out.

[ Parent ]
Jane Harman to resign
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Councilwoman Janice Hahn is the first potential candidate I can think of
She's run in a previous version of the district and lost, but she'd have no problem winning this version. She ran for Lt. Governor last year, so I think she's looking to move up somewhat.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
She lives in San Pedro (LA City Harbor)
She's outside the district, which is okay legally but the perception would be carpet-baggerish.

I'd think Harman's primary opponent (thorn in her side) in either '08 or '10 (I don't remember which) would be the frontrunner.

Hahn should save her powder for mayor in '13.

[ Parent ]
Most of San Pedro is in the district
...I thought that area of CA-46 was uninhabited industrial land used to keep the R-heavy Palos Verdes-es in Rohrabacher's seat. Does Hahn live right along the water or something?  

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
Looking at the map, San Pedro is in the district
Harman's primary opponent wasn't particularly strong, not really a front runner type.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Didn't Winograd challenge her in 08 and 10?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
2006 and 10


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 217 comments

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