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SSP Daily Digest: 2/4

by: Crisitunity

Fri Feb 04, 2011 at 3:22 PM EST


CT-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons has previously sounded unlikely to run (and rather sulky about it), but now he's saying he's "considering" the race and will make a decision by March. He's also seeking to replace state GOP party chair Chris Healy, who he thinks favored Linda McMahon during the nomination process. Simmons also had some kind words for state Sen. Scott Frantz as an option in case he himself doesn't run.

FL-Sen: Already having the backing of the man he replaced as state Senate president (John Thrasher), now Mike Haridopolos got the endorsement of the Republican leader of the other chamber, state House speaker Dean Cannon. (Not that those kinds of endorsements move a lot of actual votes, but this could be harmful in the behind-the-scenes game to former state House majority leader Adam Hasner if he runs, as he'd probably have expected Cannon's help.)

MA-Sen, MA-06: Rep. John Tierney didn't sound much like a candidate in the Senate race when asked about it at an appearance with area high schoolers, saying he's focused on his current job and plans to run again. That, on top of Barney Frank's announcement yesterday that he's running again (and the months-ago announcement from John Olver that he's running again) point to an increasing likelihood that two of the state's 10 Dem Congresspeople will have to face off in a primary (unless either Mike Capuano or Stephen Lynch roll the dice on a Senate bid). One other total wild card here that came into sharper relief today: John Kerry seems to be amping up his lobbying to become Secretary of State. While there's no indication that Hillary Clinton is in any hurry to leave, that does raise the specter of another special election if there's a changing of the guard at SoS after the 2012 election. That possibility, and the chance at an open seat run instead of going up against Scott Brown's millions, might induce Capuano and Lynch to keep their House jobs for now.

NE-Sen: PPP gives AG Jon Bruning a substantial lead in the GOP Senate primary, for the right to take on Ben Nelson. He leads state Treasurer Don Stenberg 47-19, with throw-ins Pat Flynn and Deb Fischer at 7 and 6 apiece. Bruning's faves among Republicans are 57/12.

VA-Sen: Jamie Radtke, the principal tea party opponent to George Allen in the GOP Senate primary so far, has shown she can compete, at least on the financial front. She raised $100K in the fourth quarter; Allen didn't report anything since his candidacy didn't launch until the new year.

WA-Gov, WA-AG: Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee is launching some rhetorical salvos in Republican AG Rob McKenna's direction over health care reform in what's very likely the beginnings of the 2012 gubernatorial general election; McKenna is one of the few blue-state AGs who signed on to the multi-state suit against HCR implementation, a possible foot-shooting move that seems more oriented toward fending off primary opposition from the right than enhancing his electability in November. By the way, if you're wondering about who's planning to replace McKenna in the AG slot, there's word that ambitious King County Councilor Bob Ferguson is about to announce his candidacy next week. His likeliest GOP opponent is fellow King County Councilor (and progeny of WA-08's Jennifer Dunn) Reagan Dunn.

WV-Gov: It looks like we finally have some consensus on when that pesky special election for Governor is going to be. The state House and Senate ironed out a compromise that will hold the primary on May 14 and the general election on Oct. 4. Acting Gov. (and candidate) Earl Ray Tomblin has agreed to sign off on the deal, even though it contains a different primary date than he wanted.

IA-03: Here's some more evidence that 77-year-old Leonard Boswell is seriously gearing up for a 2012 battle to stay in the House, despite possibly facing two major opponents (first Christine Vilsack in a Dem primary, then Tom Latham in a redistricting-forced general). He named his former campaign manager Julie Stauch as his new chief of staff. (His fundraising may say otherwise, though; see below.)

LA-03, LA-AG: Jeff Landry, who's been in the House all of one month, is the likeliest Rep. to get squeezed in a 6-district map of Louisiana, by virtue of his lack of seniority and depopulation in his district (and the need to keep next-door LA-02 a VRA district). So, it seems sensible that he's already contemplating some alternate plans. Rumors are flying now that the reason that AG Buddy Caldwell is planning switch over to the Republican party is because Landry is looking at challenging Caldwell in this year's AG race (although Caldwell's switch would just move that challenge to the primary, if it goes through). David Rivera might not even have the shortest stay among this year's freshman class, if Landry wins the AG race and leaves the House after one year.

Fundraising: This Politico piece on fundraising among House members has some interesting red flags from Q4 that may portend retirement. On the GOP side, CA-41's Jerry Lewis raised $1,700, while MD-06's Roscoe Bartlett raised all of $0. For the Dems, NY-05's Gary Ackerman raised $924, NY-28's Louise Slaughter raised $320, and MI-05's Dale Kildee raised the strangely specific sum of $1.42. They also point to how fundraising may have dried up for several likely casualties of redistricting, including MI-09's Gary Peters (down to $88K CoH), IA-03's Leonard Boswell ($66K CoH), PA-12's Mark Critz (net negative-$36K), and LA-03's Jeff Landry (net negative-$24K).

Redistricting: As expected, the battle over Florida's Fair Districts initiative is moving into the courts, starting with a new suit filed by the amendments' backers (including the League of Women Voters and NAACP) demanding that Rick Scott re-engage the process of seeking VRA preclearance for the chances to Florida's system. (Scott has apparently been dragging his feet on preclearance in hopes that the initiative's requirements won't be in place by the time of 2012 redistricting, which could let the GOP legislature gerrymander to their hearts' content.) Meanwhile, the GOP legislature in Georgia is already consolidating their power to take advantage of their control of the trifecta there: they removed primary responsibility for map-drawing from the nonpartisan Carl Vinson Institute at UGA, and instead are creating a new Legislative and Congressional Reapportionment Office more directly under their control.

Census: If you tried to open the ftp version of the new Census data yesterday and found yourself looking at incomprehensible txt files (that, if you scroll through them quickly enough, look like you're able to see through The Matrix), fear not. They're available via American FactFinder now, and even through interactive widget form.

FEC: I'm not sure how many max-out donors we have among our readership, but the FEC has raised contribution limits for this cycle, meaning you can give a little more to your favorite candidate or committee before hitting the ceiling. You can now give up to $2,500 per candidate and $30,800 per committee.

Trivia: I had absolutely no idea this number was so low: there have been only four open seat Senate races in Texas since the 1920s. (Not only do Senators there tend to have long tenures, but vacancies tend to manifest themselves in special elections.) The races were in 1948, 1952, 1984, and 2002.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/4
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Louisiana doesn't have party primaries, it's the jungle primary followed by a runoff.
Also, Bartlett never raises much money. Usually he pulls in around $200k-300k. I think he's going to stay in the House until he dies. He's just that cranky an old man.

That is, $200k-300k per cycle.


[ Parent ]
Well, that's
exactly what I was trying to say; they'll face off in the jungle primary. I will admit some confusion about what system they're currently moving to for state-level races, though, as it seems like they're constantly changing it around... are they reverting to the 80s-and-90s-style system where the jungle primary is held in November, and then a runoff if needed is held in December?  

[ Parent ]
They only ever changed the system for federal races
which in 2012 is going back to the previous system: primary on Election Day with a runoff in December.

For state elections, the primary is held October 22 with the runoff November 19.

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/P...


[ Parent ]
Thanks
Didn't know about Nov. 19 (that's a Saturday). So, of the four gubernatorial races we're having this year, I guess that means only two of them are actually being contested on Nov. 8?

[ Parent ]
Our elections
Are always Saturday, unless it is a national election.  

[ Parent ]
I assume you guys have early voting
otherwise, I guess if you're a Jew and you're shomer shabbas, FYL?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
or seventh-day adventist


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Louisiana does in person early voting that ends about a week before the election
In New Orleans the site was city hall: there may have been a site in Eastern New Orleans too.  Every campaign I've been with has pushed early voting pretty hard; it's not as vital as it is in California but it's still there.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
We do
But Jews could probably vote in LA on Saturdays. We use electronic voting machines, so they're not ripping paper or anything. They just have to walk to their polling place.  

[ Parent ]
That's even worse
you're not supposed to use electronics on Shabbat.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Louisiana
In 2007, when I wasn't following politics all that closely, I remember reading about Jindal's election in the Sunday newspaper. I wasn't sure which was more shocking to me: that Louisiana had elected an Indian-American Catholic governor, or that they had done so on a Saturday in October in an odd-numbered year.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I was less surprised
I was more surprised seeing him come close in 2003.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I was also surprised
 To see a map where Democrats won all the rural areas in the northern part of the state while Republicans won all the urban counties except for New Orleans.

What was amazing was how blue the map was but how the election was not a Democratic landslide. Compare it with the similar margin but less blue 2008 map for Mary Landrieu's win.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
NE-Sen
No real surprise in the PPPolling numbers, Brunning isn't well know outside the state (but neither was Dave Heinemann before he became Governor, and then shocked everyone by beating Tom Osborne in the subsequent primary), but he's a solid conservative who fits the state well both in ideology and demeanor. I think the fact that he announced so early made some think he wasn't a top tier candidate, but he clearly is.

I thin Stenberg will (wisely) keep him powder dry and wait to run for Governor when Heinemann is termed out in '14.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


VA-Sen
I'm surprised there wasn't a "Radtke outraises Webb 10-to-1" press release today. This guy seriously doesn't know how to play big league ball.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


Thought Radtke was a woman


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Virginia Public Access Project
Has visual maps of the census data for Virginia.  They have maps of congressional, state senate, and state house districts and which districts added or lost population. They also have maps of population change by counties and where Hispanic and African American population change was.

http://www.vpap.org/updates/sh...


Stupid Politico Article
Portrays Peters as a money problem, but describes Allen West as a "moneybomber" who's raising big money.

Peters CoH: $88K
West CoH: $52K


OT: Obama SC numbers
I know there has been some discussion here about Obama possibly being in a position to contest SC in 2012. PPP released their presidential numbers for the state and while they don't look enormously promising, it does show the potential is there for the state to be competitive.

Obama's at 44% approval in the state. Huckabee leads Obama 49-43, Romney beats him 49-42. Obama actually leads Palin and Gingrich, leading Palin 47-41 and Gingrich 44-43.

Additionally, Jensen notes on the blog today (in response to an angry email) that the poll actually skews a little conservative, given that they have the electorate at R+5 (when it was R+3 in '08) and that their sample has McCain beating Obama by 13, when he actually only beat him by 9.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


That email was worth a chuckle
Gallup is not. Fucking Egypt. Not that I'm following it that closely but what is the guy supposed to do exactly?

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't assume anything more than noise at this point......
Don't get so wound up, I like you follow Gallup daily and I remember quite well that all last year Obama bounced around as low as 41 and as high as 49, sometimes in the span of a week.  There is a lot of noise in Gallup daily.  So a drop from 50 to 46 in this short time is no big deal.

The way I look at it is that we want to see the range over the course of 2-3 months, that tells us something.  If Obama is bouncing around between, say, 45 and 51, occasionally going a point or two higher or lower than that, then that still shows real improvement over 2010.

I don't believe for one second that Egypt is hurting Obama.  I don't think Americans are so worked up over it, or blaming any of their own leaders for it, as the Beltway political-media complex is.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Yup, unless an Khomeni-quality character takes over in Egypt
This situation should not negatively affect the President (though there are many other risks, e.g. the price of oil).

However, there's also the potential move towards Democratic change in the Middle East. If Egypt turns out well, it has the potential to be at least a temporary positive, like the post-Berlin wall fall was for Bush I.


[ Parent ]
Perhaps
But collapsing from the 50-42 level it was stuck at for a couple weeks to 46-46 in just two days is odd. Stranger still being the fact Newport has an audio post up dated yesterday saying he is still at 50 and, as you say, Egypt has changed nothing.

[ Parent ]
Again, there were wild swings last year......
I remember one stretch when Obama went from the high 40s, down to a pitiful 41-52, and then back up into the high 40s, all in the course of a couple weeks, and it was a stretch when nothing significant was in the news to make Obama more or less popular.

The nature of "random samples" is that you get some random results, including some volatile short-term change that means nothing.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Rasmussen is the same
Seems like correlation to me.

[ Parent ]
I'd wait until the monthly major polls by the broadcast outlets......
NBC/WSJ is one I trust a lot, significantly b/c Chuck Todd vouches for it, and I trust him the most among political reporters.

The dailies are just two polls, and yes there's correlation for the moment, but often not.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I don't know anyone
Republican or Democrat who disapproves of Obama's handling of Egypt.

i can't imagine he's negative on that. I think there was even a poll that showed people approved of his handling of the crisis.  


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Rasmussen of all people. Though his commentary was as biased as ever.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


[ Parent ]
Looks to me
like a bunch of non-committed white voters. Obama gets them against. . .Sarah Palin and nobody else.

South Carolina is well out of reach.  


[ Parent ]
I think Obama could beat Palin here, but that's about it
In all fairness, of course, Obama will be flipping pink states left and right with Palin as the nominee. (Of course, Palin won't actually be the nominee, so this is all sorta for naught.) At the end of the day, Gingrich probably carries both South Carolina and Georgia. You'd probably find a very 2008-esque map with him. I think Huckabee wins South Carolina by double-digits, flips North Carolina and holds Obama to within 5 in Virginia. Romney's more complicated, though PPP perhaps suggests not as much as I'd thought. I think the evangelicals are wary of him, yes, but he makes up for that by siphoning-off more moderates than Huckabee does. I think he carries SC by a modest margin (maybe like 6%), but NC might be a tough flip. Georgia's interesting, but I imagine Romney still eeks that out.

So, South Carolina. Toss-up with Palin, Tilt R with Gingrich, Lean R with Romney, Likely R with Huckabee.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
It's absolutely worth looking into.
The campaign will certainly contest North Carolina and could easily contest Georgia, too. I don't know how many media markets overlap, if any, but if they do, and the campaign is saturating both of those states, there's no reason not to try to add in more resources in order to close the gap. There's certainly room to grow as far as voter registration, too. Besides, there are two or three potentially competitive House seats, and it wouldn't hurt to have the resources in place to help out those candidates.

If, as time goes on, the state's clearly not moving in our direction, we can shift resources to other areas. But at this point, it's definitely worth investing in.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
About 45% of the state
lives in the Savannah, Augusta, Asheville, or Charlotte media markets. (Calling the Asheville one "Asheville", though, is a little deceiving. It's more like Asheville is in the Greenville-Spartanburg market.)

The Myrtle Beach market also overlaps with North Carolina, but the NC side is fairly neglible in population.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.


[ Parent ]
I actually meant Georgia and South Carolina.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Speaking of Georgia
There is a non-PPP poll floating about that somewhat validates their work in other states.

https://docs.google.com/viewer...


[ Parent ]
That poll has Herman Cain at
14% in the primary, leading Palin, ergo it's bullshit. I'm not sure that 14 VOTERS in Georgia know who he even is.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Cain
He got 26% in the 2004 Senate primary.

[ Parent ]
I think his radio show is also based in the Atlanta area
It's not really a stretch to imagine he's doing unusually well in his home state.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
So what? Looking at most people who get
25% of the vote in Senate primaries, most of them are unimportant losers. 14% in his home state, that's about as well as Pawlenty does, and Herman Cain is NOT the same tier as an incumbent Governor with okay approval ratings.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
You said you doubted 14 people knew the guy
Obviously not.

[ Parent ]
And according to PPP
Pawlenty leads in MN at 24%.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


[ Parent ]
The related MN Senate numbers note
that Bachmann would beat Pawlenty in the MN-Sen primary...

so would Bachmann beat Pawlenty in MN if she also runs for President? (If Palin passes, I could see Bachmann getting in.)


[ Parent ]
We should only be so lucky.
Having her in the primary would be good purely for entertainment purposes, but if she somehow managed to win, I'm not sure there'd be a Republican party once Obama was done with her.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's what I'm saying
About 45% of the population of South Carolina lives in a media market that is based in or substantially overlaps with Georgia or North Carolina. (Specifically, the four markets I mentioned.)

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
Young people in VA.
According to the 2010 Census, over 60% of Virginians under 18 are non-white.
http://bluevirginia.us/diary/3...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


george allen
must be going insane trying to quell his maccacca moments.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
My tentative
Since 2012 is a Presidential election year, bringing the turnout rate higher, and Allen's usual weaknesses... Webb is probably the narrow favorite at this time. If he runs.  

[ Parent ]
maybe with a competitive tea party opponent
primarying him, Allen will be pushed into some extreme positions which won't be helpful in the general election.
Has anyone asked him if he's a birther?

[ Parent ]
That's heartening for us and for me, and killer for Republicans......
That's really ominous and signals a future of futility for the GOP.  They're not going to be able to integrate their neo-confederates and softer racists and xenophobes in rural white areas with a reach-out to people of color.  This will be less-than-impossible--still very difficult but not quite impossible--outside the South, but in states with large culturally Southern white populations, it's not going to happen for many generations.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Even worse is the split in the white vote in Virginia
States like Virginia and North Carolina, which have a significant share of relatively liberal whites (DC suburbs and the Research Triangle) complicate the matter even further for the GOP.

It's that combination which makes life a lot harder for the GOP.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
"Reagan" Dunn
Good grief.

MA-SEN
just thought i should point out that with Vicky Kennedy, Barney Frank and light bright man http://www.somethingpositive.n...
out of the race, with Deval Patrick a probable no, 55% of the field polled here, isn't running, 70% counting the undecideds.  http://www.publicpolicypolling...  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

I really like the already announced candidate
Bob Massie

He has a really great story and seems to know what he's doing. If he can raise the money, I think he can put up quite the fight. I think our best shot at Brown is with an outsider, so I'm a little hesitant to get behind someone like Capuano.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


[ Parent ]
Me too.
I just hope to heck he can raise money and campaign well enough.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I believe Boswell plans to run again
Hiring Julie Stauch as his Iowa chief of staff is a big tell. Stauch not only managed his 2002 campaign, she managed Lois Murphy's 2004 campaign in PA and Mazie Hirono's 2006 campaign in HI (where getting through the primary was the major battle).

His year-end cash on hand was meager, but he had a fundraiser headlined by Tom Harkin right after new year's.


Vilsack?
So....what exactly is Christie Vilsack up to, then? Could there be some crazy challenge-every-Republican-upon-redistricting thing afoot (which would kick ass, btw)? Because is that not the only way that she's not prepping for a primary against a Democrat?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I think she'll challenge Boswell
unless the new map for IA-03 leans very Republican. Word on the street around Des Moines is that she is serious about running, even if Boswell doesn't stand down.

[ Parent ]
I assume she'd be running for the left, correct?
Boswell is a Blue Dog, but, iirc, he voted fine on stimulus, HCR, cap and trade, DREAM, and DADT. I'm not sure what Vilsack would be able to run on. Unless she's just planning to ride her name through the primary.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Trivia
Yeah, that 1948 U.S. Senate race in Texas was a pretty good one.

FL-Sen typo
John Thrasher is the recent GOP Party Chair, he was Speaker of the House in 99-01 though. The last FL Senate president is now the CFO Jeff Atwater.

Tierney would better think about his reelection
then possible Senate race, That reelection will not be esay. Almost no one (me - too) believes, that he knew nothing about his wife dealings - that's one. He got only 57% against absolute nobody - ultraconservative birther Hudak - that's two. His district is not especially liberal by Massachusetts standards - 57% for Obama - three. And Obama's coattails may be partially balanced by Browns's - four

But to have a chance Republicans need Tisei (or Cousins) - not Hudak, who will lose, and this time - lose BIG


Tierney
is a prime target... probably one of only half a dozen or so genuine R pickup opportunities not created by redistricting. Hudak was worse than a nobody, and still did better than anyone since Torkildsen. I'd actually be a little surprised if he doesn't face a primary challenge.

Tisei can win this seat, with or without Tierney. They can't break the district up because Markey will object to taking on a huge amount of new territory. And if they try to make it more Democratic, they'll probably just be pulling in more of Tisei's Senate District. Plus Brown's coattails will likely cancel out Obama's here.

The key is making sure Tisei has clear sailing through the primary, as he's not the most popular guy among the grassroots. Though, the resentment of Tisei last year was two fold, and might have even been less due to his views (the MAGOP has a long history of being quite pragmatic on that front) than the fact that he brought no balance whatsoever to the ticket (with Baker, the ticket consisted of two moderate North Shore insiders.) But still, if I were Jenn Nassour, I'd be thinking of that as my #1 primary election priority, as Tisei is far more likely to draw a serious intraparty challenge than Brown is. If Hudak starts making noise about running, I'd offer him a big donation to switch to some other race (maybe State Senate) where he can lose without damaging the party's prospects.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)


[ Parent ]
I can say only "fully agree"
Theoretically i see 3 possibilities for Republicans in Massachusetts: Tierney's district, Keating's district (but, please, not Perry again), and McGovern's district if open (but Republicans need someone like Polito, not Lamb  there). Still 2012 will be a Presidential year, and in Massachusetts that means something. So even 1 seat will be quite an achievement...

[ Parent ]
Keating
Sen. Bob Hedlund considered a run there last year. In McGovern's district, there is also Richard Ross, Scott Brown's successor in the state Sen. and, it sounds crazy, but Gail Huff, Scott Brown's wife, was a well-known and well liked news woman.  

[ Parent ]
Hedlund and Ross seem slightly too conservative to me
(this district begs for pro-choice and at least pro civil-unions moderate), though not so much as Perry. Huff? Really don't know anything about her and her views. But - may be.

[ Parent ]
Nothing To See There
Hardly anyone who isn't a die hard Republican (they exist, but there aren't that many of them) in the towns around Worcester, when given the choice between a local boy and someone from Wrentham, is going to choose the person from Wrentham. The GOP is going to need a Central Mass person as a candidate to have a shot there.

Not sure why Bob Hedlund passed on his chance, though. If he could've gotten by Perry, he would have been at least even money against Bill Keating.    

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
But he still didn't come all that close.
It's one thing to break single-digits, even the high single digits. But Tierney defeated Hudak by almost 14 points. Sure, he may have been a nut case like people here say, but unless it's another awful year, I'm not sure the Republicans have that good of a chance to knock him off, or to take the seat if Tierney isn't the nominee.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Around these parts, a R cracking 40% is a moral victory
...heck, just running a candidate is a moral victory when you consider something like half the Reps were unopposed 2 years ago. The fact that a horrible candidate - who I'm not sure could have been elected in a R+7 district against a credible opponent in 2010, let alone a D+7 seat - got over 40% of the vote is a profound testament to Tierney's weakness.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
Fair enough.
But then the simple solution is to replace the candidate, no?

I'm not saying you do this a lot, so don't take this as an insult, but I am wary of reading too much into one election, one that is unlikely to be repeated for at least a few cycles. If the voters really, truly had an issue with Tierney, they could have voted him out. And chances are, the attack lines against him become less effective with time.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
I agree
I'm not saying Tisei vs. Tierney is a slam-dunk R pickup. I'm not even saying he's likely to win. I'm saying he would make it competitive. Frankly I think it would be Leans D, with the possibility of going to Tossup if Brown looks more solid or Obama looks less solid. 2012 is not going to be 2010, but Tisei is not Hudak either.

Also I think there have been some other issues with Tierney besides his wife (I haven't heard much of anything about those so I won't make comments, but the oppo research file is likely to be fat here).

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)


[ Parent ]
Again - agree
Would Tisei run for MA-06 in 2010 - it would be extremely close (i don't remember whether info about Tierney's wife dealings came through before or after election: if first - i would expect Tisei victory). In 2012, with substantially greater Democratic turnout, it will be more difficult, but not impossible. MA-06 isn't "a stellar Obama district" - he even lost about 1% compared to Kerry performance in 2004, but still, of course, basically Democratic

I checked results of House elections in Massachusetts for 2006 and 2008 - not a single Republican candidate got even 35%. So, comparatively, 2010 was a real success for them in the state, despite weakness of many candidates (Lamb, Hudak, Perry). Only Golnick more or less fit "standard Republican formula of success in Norh-East": fiscally conservative and social moderate, while other were too conservative for their districts...


[ Parent ]
Tierney
Did he run a serious campaign or did he get caught napping like Oberstar? It appears that a lot of voters saw House races simply as generic R v. generic D so I could see Hudak doing well if Tierney didn't go after him aggressively.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
He emptied out his campaign account
He only raised about $900k, but spent $2 million.

Really, what saved him was the fact that Golnik was such a wacko (plus the district is more Democratic than MN-08). A serious opponent might have toppled him.


[ Parent ]
Golnik was MA-5
Hudak was MA-6. He was the wacko though. Golnik was a pretty run-of-the-mill some dude.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
Right candidate, wrong -k name.


[ Parent ]
Kerry Healey
Also lives here and has $$$. Who is Cousins?  

[ Parent ]
Sheriff of Essex County
but he has passed up multiple overtures to run for higher office in the past. I also think Kerry Healey is done with politics (she passed up the chance to run in the 6th this year, which in retrospect she probably could've won.)

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
She passed
Because at the time it looked like a bad year for Republicans. After Brown won and it looked good, when rumors started that she would run, she didn't because she had already endorsed Hudak.  

[ Parent ]
Well, can you imagine that only 10 years ago
there was a Republican elected and reelected for 10 years in Suffolk county, Massachusetts? In Suffolk, with Boston as main city!)) And even reelected unopposed during his last campaign))) Massachusetts is really interesting state)))  

[ Parent ]
Against Bulger Cronyies
That was in the tail-end of Billy Bulger's power in the Suffolk Democratic party, when he was still strong enough to determine the Democratic Primary for a seat he cared a lot about(Sheriff), but was already deeply unpopular for the reasons why he wanted it.

Ralph Martin, was a RINO of a RINO caliber. His Democratic opponent in 1994 attacked him for being too Pro-Gay Rights, and he was African American running both times against unreconstructed anti-busing activists. I realize there is a lot of discussion here about under what circumstances a Republican could sweep the minority vote. Martin's three wins are probably about it.

Interestingly, Martin was solicited to be the GOP candidate in hypothetical 2005 Senate special election in the vent John Kerry won. If we ignore the impossibility of a Republican winning a senate race in MA, imagine where that would have led, he would have been a great VP candidate for someone like Palin.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Sheriff or District Attorney?


[ Parent ]
Forgot to add
- elected and reelected COUNTYWIDE)))

[ Parent ]
You're right
I misremembered my timeline.

Nevertheless, she also hasn't done a lot to keep her profile up, so I don't think it's too likely that she'd jump back in.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)


[ Parent ]

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