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SSP Daily Digest: 2/3

by: Crisitunity

Thu Feb 03, 2011 at 3:46 PM EST


CT-Sen: This is starting to sound like a broken record, but Rep. Joe Courtney is in the news again for saying that he's still vaguely interested in getting into the Dem Senate primary. At least he has a somewhat more definite timetable, saying he'll decide "by the end of this month."

FL-Sen: Quinnipiac is out with its first Florida poll of the 2012 cycle, and it's remarkably similar to the other polling they've been doing so far this cycle (like OH and PA): they find a surprisingly high number of people with no opinion about the incumbent Democrat, and find him polling in the mid-40s on a generic ballot question, but still winning by an OK margin. Bill Nelson's specific numbers vs. Generic R are 41-36; his approvals are pretty good at 45/21 and his re-elect is 43/33. On a related note, Nelson has the most cash of any Dem heading into 2012, in what, if only by virtue of the state's population, may be 2012's most expensive Senate race; he has more than $3 million CoH.

MA-Sen, MA-04: I was a little surprised to see Barney Frank's name even on the long list of potential candidates for the Massachusetts Senate race - he's 70 years old and, if for some reason there's a Democratic wave election in 2012 he could get his gavel back - so it's not unusual to see his announcement today that he's running for another term in the House in 2012.

MN-Sen: Courtesy of Minnesota Public Radio, here's a long list of additional Republicans who aren't running for Senate in Minnesota. (The list of ones who are running would be more interesting but is much shorter, since it has zero names on it, with the possible exception of Harold Shudlick, who lost the 2006 Senate nomination with a proto-teabag candidacy.) Most notably it includes former state Rep. Laura Brod (who's apparently on the short list to become a Univ. of Minnesota Regent instead), but also state Sen. Julie Rosen, state Sen. David Hann, Hennepin Co. Sheriff Rich Stanek, attorney Ron Schutz, and Bill Guidera, who is the state party's finance chair but is employed as "lobbyist for News Corp."  A Roll Call article from several weeks ago buried a few other "no thanks" too: businesswoman Susan Marvin, former T-Paw CoS Charlie Weaver, and former state Rep. Paul Kohls. (H/t Brian Valco.)

MT-Sen, MT-AL: After a lot of rumors last week, it's official as of today: Republican Senate candidate Steve Daines is dropping down to the open seat House race, where he probably becomes something of a frontrunner (rather than a speed bump for Denny Rehberg). He can transfer over the $200K he raised for his Senate race. The Fix has some additional names who might consider the House race (in addition to Democratic state Rep. Franke Wilmer, who started floating her name several days ago): businessman Neil Livingstone and state Sen. Roy Brown for the GOP, and state Sen. minority whip Kim Gillan, state Sen. Larry Jent, up-and-coming state Sen. Kendall Van Dyk (netroots candidate, anybody?), or attorney Tyler Gernant.

WI-Sen: Is this the opening salvo of the 2012 Senate race? It comes from a familiar face (one who lost the 1998 Senate general election and 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary), ex-Rep. and real estate development magnate Mark Neumann. He engaged in the traditional pre-announcement tactic of penning an op-ed attacking the incumbent, in this case Herb Kohl and his vote against HCR repeal. If so, it would set up the battle of the self-funders.

WV-Sen: The NRSC is out with its first ad of the cycle, and they're getting right to work going after Joe Manchin, after he surprised at least some people by keeping ranks with the Dems and voting against HCR repeal. No trucker hats or plaid here... instead, they seem to be taking that "San Francisco values" (read: gay gay gay!) tack pioneered by Sam Graves in a notorious MO-06 ad in 2008, by comparing joined-at-the-hip pals Barack Obama and Joe Manchin to other legendary campy duos, like Sonny and Cher, and Siegfried and Roy.

IN-Gov: Somebody's not waiting for Mike Pence to make his move on the Indiana governor's race! I say "somebody" because I really have no idea who this guy is, although he's one step up from Some Dude by virtue of having been a Hamilton County Commissioner. Jim Wallace is the first to actually say he'll seek the Republican nomination; he's touting his business background (as a consultant to health insurance companies).

WV-Gov: I'm not sure I've ever seen such a chaotically-planned election before, but now the state House and Senate in West Virginia can't agree on what date they're going to set for the special election to replace Joe Manchin. The House moved it up to Sep. 13, but then the Senate's bill kept it at Oct. 4, which was the date proposed by Earl Ray Tomblin. At least they're in agreement on the primary date, June 20. (There's also a rundown on filings so far: the three Dems to file are the one's you'd expect (Tomblin, Natalie Tennant, and Rick Thompson), while in addition to two expected GOPers (Betty Ireland, Mark Sorsaia), there's also one whose name I hadn't heard before, state Del. Patrick Lane.

FL-25: You know you're in for a short stay in the House when the Beltway media is already compiling lists of likely successors during your first month on the job. The Fix's list of possible Republicans who might pick up after David Rivera in the event of a resignation/expulsion includes state Sen. Anitere Flores, former state Sen. Alex Villalobos, state Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, Miami-Dade school board member Carlos Curbelo, and former state Rep. J.C. Planas.

MS-LG: With Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant the likeliest person to become Mississippi Governor in 2011, the jockeying to become Lt. Gov in 2011 (and thus probably become Governor in 2019) is underway. Republican state Treasurer Tate Reeves is the first to announce his bid.

DCCC/Crossroads: The announcement that they were targeting 19 vulnerable Republicans this early in the cycle was a good move for the DCCC, but a lot of the wind subsequently went out of their sails when it was revealed (courtesy of Nathan Gonzales) that the effort was really more of a press release backed up by tiny radio ad buys, with a total of about $10,000 spent, working out to about $500 per member (and as low as $114 in VA-05, which is a cheap market, but still...). That was met by a retaliatory buy from the Karl Rove-linked GOP dark money outfit American Crossroads, where the clearly telegraphed subtext was "You're broke; we have money." They spent $90,000 to air radio ads in those same markets, which at less than $5,000 per member is still chicken feed but, in terms of The Math, noticeably larger. Of course, that $114 is a pretty good return on investment, if it got Robert Hurt publicly backpedaling on just how much he wants to cut infrastructure spending.

Mayors: The Las Vegas mayoral race just took an interesting turn yesterday, when former school board president (and more notably, wife of outgoing mayor-for-life Oscar Goodman) Carol Goodman reversed course and said that she would, in fact, run for mayor. By virtue of name rec, that may catapult her to the front of the line.

Redistricting: This may be our first-ever episode of Swingnuts in the News, but Josh Goodman (now writing for Stateline) has an interview with Dave Bradlee (of Dave's Redistricting App fame) in his new article on the rise of DIY redistricting in general. (He also briefly cites abgin's now-legendary map of New York state.) He also points out that at least two states, Idaho and Florida, will make similar applications available online for tinkerers, as well as the Public Mapping Project's efforts to create a more comprehensive public service.

Census: The 2010 data for Louisiana, Missisippi, New Jersey, and Virginia is out... at least in cumbersome FTP form. American FactFinder won't have the data until later today or tomorrow. (Looks like Dave Wasserman's already cracked open the data and has tweeted one interesting tidbit: New Orleans' population came in 29.1% lower than 2000, and even 3.1% below the 2009 ACS estimate.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/3
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WI-Sen
I had to hit wikipedia to remember exactly who Neumann was, loser for congress in '92, '93, winner is '94 & '96, loser for Senate in '98 and for governor (primary this time) in '10. That's a 2-4 record (which would even get you fired as the football coach at a service academy).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


And in the battle of the self-funders,
Kohl, who's worth more than $160 million (#3 in the chamber after Kerry and Mark Warner, according to opensecrets.org), can beat a guy like Neumann without even breaking a sweat.

Not that I'm for politics being all about who can outspend who, but the GOP is going to have to do better than Neumann if they want this seat.

I'd also argue that anything that comes out of Ron Johnson's mouth in the next year and a half is perfect justification for WI keeping one Dem in the Senate. Kohl also isn't as "controversial" as Feingold was.  


[ Parent ]
Unless you
REALLY hate Republican platitudes there won't be too much objectionable coming from Johnson. The guy ran as generic Republican and I don't think you'll see or hear anything from him in the next 6 years that deviates from the Republican leadership's position.

[ Parent ]
Someone fully explain how we lost WI-Sen
Bad climate and I get that Feingold wasn't really ever the safest incumbent, but was it more of a factor of being like Murray but WI being much more swingy than WA?  And of course with both having a non-offensive GOP candidate.

[ Parent ]
Voters never liked Feingold
He was always a weak candidate, relatively.

Kohl would have won easily, because he is well-liked.

On the other point, Neumann is a perfect candidate for the GOP, similar Chris Coons.  He isn't likely to win, but if something odd happens, he can win.

On the other hand, Neumann is kinda cursed.  He was a GOP rising star (he was Paul Ryan before Ryan), but he faced Feingold at his most popular moment, and then faced the toughest GOP primary opponent in the state.  Now, instead of Feingold, who he would have blasted out of the park, he faces Kohl who will stomp him.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, I never understood the Feingold worship on dKos
Let me put it this way. Of the Democrats who have held that seat, I'd take Gaylord Nelson over Feingold any day.

[ Parent ]
Because he was
the sole Senate vote against the PATRIOT Act.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
He was also the only Democrat
1. To oppose Sen. Byrd's motion to dismiss the impeachment charges against President Clinton.
2. To oppose U.S. involvement in Kosovo.
3. To oppose Wall Street reform.

His "voting the wrong way for the right reason" shtick was getting old.  


[ Parent ]
I tend to agree with you
I really wanted to like the guy, but there was a whiff of self-righteousness about him that if I'm picking up as a progressive Democrat who usually agreed with him (and could understand his point when I didn't), I think that probably wore thin among moderate Wisconsin voters.

[ Parent ]
Yeah.
   I used to like him a lot, but when he started making kissy-face with McCain, he began to get on my nerves. I'd take Sherrod Brown or Jeff Merkley over him any day.

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
He was also the only D to vote for
John Ashcroft for AG -- a sin that my dearly departed Nancy never forgave Feingold for.

If Russ had voted no, Ashcroft's nomination might never had been reported out of committee.

In addition, the precedent was set for other Ds to break with the party in a 50-50 Senate.


[ Parent ]
You
serious? Feingold voted for John fucking Ashcroft?! John fucking Ashcroft?! But he voted against the Patriot Act! Jesus Christ, talk about erratic.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
My response too.
WTF?!?!?!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
They should put his picture in the dictionary
next to "loose cannon."

[ Parent ]
It was out of principle
that a President should be allowed to make appointments. He also voted for Rice and Gonzales.  

[ Parent ]
Ridiculous
As ever, Feingold was full of it on that "presidents deserve their nominees" line.  He was all too happy to vote against Tim Geithner in Jan. '09.

So is it that a man like Bush deserved more deference on cabinet selections than a man like Obama?  Or was Geithner more of a self-evidently terrible nominee than John Ashcroft?

To be help those of us who observed his career closely, I'll add a third option: Feingold was a few degrees off and it's crazy to predict what he'll do or say.


[ Parent ]
Not strictly true.
Several other Democrats voted to confirm Ashcroft. Zell Miller was the first to announce his support. Dodd voted for him. Both of the ND senators voted for him. I'm not sure who else... but Feingold was far from the only one to do so.

And please, can we stop it with the Feingold hate? It's not germane in any case.


[ Parent ]
Zell Miller
Does he count as a Democrat?  

[ Parent ]
I was not precise
Feingold was the only Democratic Senator on the Judiciary Committee who voted for Ashcroft, which was split 10-10 at the time.

It was unclear whether the nomination would have been reported out on a tie vote -- generally ties in nominations are not reported out, with exceptions (e.g. with no recommendation)


[ Parent ]
That I did not know.
Thanks for bringing that up.

[ Parent ]
No hate here
If I lived in Wisconsin I would have voted for him. But the guy can certainly be frustrating.

[ Parent ]
Interesting bit of trivia
...WI-III is kind of cursed in a way. No senator ever popularly elected to this seat has retired voluntarily (one died in office, one was defeated in a primary, and all the rest lost a general election.)

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
Wow!
NJ census numbers R+24 Lakewood, NJ grows 54%, heavily Orthodox Jewish, 7th largest population center in NJ.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

Lakewood, NJ
Lakewood had 60000 people in 2000. That must mean it has over 90000 now. If it's #7 then it must be the largest city in NJ south of Edison. In 10 years it surpassed Toms River, Hamilton, Trenton, Camden, Brick, Cherry Hill. This really does change the balance of power in central/southern NJ.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
It's
92,843

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
It
Went from the 22nd biggest to the 7th biggest in one decade. Impressive

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
Where is the growth coming from?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Mostly
Orthodox Jewish, migration and very high birth rate, it has a big Jewish Yeshiva (university for talmudic studies) with almost 10,000 students.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
Lakewood
Also has 17.4% Hispanics, though most of growth was Jewish, as it became more Republican, from 67% Bush to 70% McCain.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
I noticed that, too.
I actually found an interesting fact sheet about the area. I'm not sure it's the same one you are using, but it wouldn't surprise me.

http://censtats.census.gov/dat...

Anyway, what do you think this means politically, at both the state and federal level? Does it alter things in any significant way?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Your
Link is from 2000

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
Yikes, yes it is.
The last few hours have not been my sharpest.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
MT-A
I'd be very surprised if Kendall ran, both because I think that I'd know it, and because it'd be the third office he runs for in three cycles (State House, State Senate and then US House). I think he'll wait and gain a bit seniority in the Senate.

Tyler Gernant is eyeing the race, but I'd be surprised if he got the nomination if he ran. His coalition 2010 were the MT blogosphere, Missoula and Party activists, and first of all those are already lining up behind Wilmer, so that there's no place for him, and I can't imagine he's made many friends with completely going AWOL the day after the primary. I was an intern and did a LOT of work for Tyler in the 2010 primary and haven't heard from him since primary day 2010, and I know that that's true for most people who worked their asses off for him. You can tell that I'm a bit pissed off.

Kim Gillan and Larry Jent might run, but looking at the endorsements that Rep. Wilmer is already getting, it'd have to happen quickly or Rep. Wilmer becomes the presumptive nominee. She has already lined up most the endorsements of most major women in the party.

What we might see is a quixotic run by Melinda Gopher, who might get 30-40% in the Native reservations, but probably not much elsewhere.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)


Uh, forget about the grammar.
I should have proof-read that post. It's at least intelligible.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Also, the
"State Senator" Roy Brown mentioned as a GOP candidate in the Fix article is a FORMER State Senator because he managed to lose a not-that-blue state senate district in 2010 without a huge scandal to the also mentioned INCUMBENT State Senator Kendall Van Dyk by 4 votes. That's two years after getting crushed by 20+ points by Gov. Schweitzer in the gubernatorial election. Brown's toast.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Also, other possible
candidates: Sen. Shannon Augare for the Dems, a Native State Senator from Northwestern Montana, and crazy tea partier State Rep. Krayton Kerns. I don't really have a strong opinion on Augare, but he's certainly a very nice guy.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
Kendall rumor is circulating in Helena today
Still, everyone is waiting to hear what Whitney Williams decides after word of Rehberg opening up the seat makes it to where she is in Ethiopia.

Major oversight by The Fix not including the most talked about candidate. She would easily win the primary & could raise the most money for the general election.

After the beating MT Dems took last year, this race is a Lean-R to begin. But if Williams runs, this begins at worst a true Toss-Up and a strong case can be made it's Lean-D from day one.


[ Parent ]
Why is Whitney Williams so strong?
And if she is, they should recruit her ASAP!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Williams is amazing
She's been recruited very heavily in DC & across Montana. She has a number of things going for her:

1. She has generations deep relationships across Montana. People love her, would walk through fire with her.

2. She's tenacious, she finds a way to get from Point A to Point B (this is also why she'd be such a great member)

3. Brilliant political mind

4. Very strong values, she's not uncontactable in Ethiopia for the pay.

5. Boatloads of money. Lots of members who served with her Dad still around, she'd quickly secure the traditional max out. She knows a ton of people in DC from her WH days. While Hillary can't raise money for her, both Clintons love her. She's huge in Seattle too, pretty much the whole west coast. Each of her parents could & would raise a pile, both of them a legends and very experienced fundraisers. And she'd raise more in-state than Tester.


[ Parent ]
Wow!
Quite a resume!

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I've known Whit since '96
First, just so you know, I care more about winning this seat than any other political office in America, other than POTUS.

Second, I lack the words to adequately describe Williams, she's far more impressive that I can put down.

She runs, she's the nominee and Dems have a great chance of sending a badass to DC. There are few in the caucus with more game. It wouldn't just be a win for Montana or a win of a seat, but a win for Democrats nationwide.


[ Parent ]
If there's Kendall rumor in Helena,
then Helena is wrong. QED. I see that you're a Whitney Williams fan, I like her too, but I don't see her as the magic weapon you make her out to be. 99% of her popularity still come from her being the daughter of Pat and Carol, who are truly adored by Montana Democrats. I'm not sure Whitney could even clear the primary against Wilmer. Probably she couldn't.

But, to be honest, you're the first person I've seen bringing her up for House yet. If Pat weren't sick, I could even imagine Carol running and holding the seat for two or three terms until one of the young guns is ready.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)


[ Parent ]
Redistricting
What a great article! OK, yes, he's very complementary about me and my app!

I talked to him just a couple of days ago. He asked me about maps that people had created that really stood out. And abgin's striping of NY is right there on top. Such a great map!

I'm working furiously to enable 2010 shapes and data. Look for Version 2.1 in a week+ and for a big announcement, too!

Thanks to all of you who have been my been my best user group!


Thanks for all you do!
I'm working on a Montana State Legislature map and might be able to get the Democrats on the redistricting commission to take a peek at it.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
It was a very nice article
Though I don't think abgin's map was a joke at all! I think it took a lot of thought, creativity and effort, and it showed what's really possible when dealing with the art of the possible.

[ Parent ]
LA-03/LA-AG: Landry Mystery AG Candidate?
When news broke that Caldwell was switching, there were rumors of a well known Republican official running against him and thats what made him decide to switch. Well now the site that broke the news of Caldwell's switch is reporting Rep. Jeff Landry may be the mystery challenger. I had thought of this possibility, as it would save him from running against Boustany in 2012, but it didn't seem likely to me so I never said anything. It would really be a free race for Landry, as he would be able to run in 2012 if he lost. If he won, it would probably be one of the shortest congressional tenures ever, as he would take office less than a year from now in January. http://dailykingfish.com/diary...

Would be logical
Landry, as the sole non-VRA-protected freshman, would likely be the one to lose a seat after redistricting.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yeah
If this was any other state, he'd have a decent shot winning against Boustany. However, since LA has jungle primaries, Boustany would have a better shot since the likely new districts population base has voted for him since 2004.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think Landry would be as vulnerable as everyone thinks
Since LA-02 is going to have to stretch from New Orleans to Baton Rouge to remain majority-black, LA-03 can't be chopped up and given to the surrounding districts. There's going to have to be a district that stretches across the southern end of the state. In fact, it should be LA-06 to be the most likely candidate for being dismantled, since Baton Rouge will have to be moved to LA-02, and it's the most central district in the state.

Of course, who knows what the Republicans will do, since they've never had control over redistricting in LA before.


[ Parent ]
East Baton Rouge Parish
But there are so many people there, is getting rid of the 6th really doable? What about just moving it into the North and cutting up Rodney Alexander's district between the 6th and Fleming's 4th?

[ Parent ]
LA-06
It will be changed drastically, but Cassidy will still be the only congressman living in the district. The black areas of BR will go to LA-02, not the white areas. They will stay as Cassidy's base, and he will end up in a much whiter, more Republican district. LA-03 will likely be merged with LA-07. That plan has support from coastal and northern LA legislators, who want to keep the two large cities in the north (Monroe and Shreveport) in two separate districts.  

[ Parent ]
Firefox Crashing when saving on DRA
Has anyone else had a problem with Firefox crashing right after you save on DRA? I've had it happen 3/6 saves on the map I'm working on now.  

Off topic but
good job with Redracinghorses. Has the aura of Swing State Project and its good to see a contrast in civility and tone to a site like redstate.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
There
Are intelligent and civil people on both sides of the aisle, both very liberal and very conservative, DKos and RS are primarilly for crowing for teabags and nutroots.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

[ Parent ]
RRH
I agree they did a good job of copying the formula.  I can't find myself participating too much as people there are some pretty far right posters that say some crazy things.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
It stopped working for me when the new ACS numbers were added
I just switched to IE (which I use for nothing else).

[ Parent ]
A bug somewhere
Don't know. I use Firefox on my laptop and just did a WA map (which I should show sometime). Worked fine. On my desktop I usually use IE and debug there. I'll try to check on this.

[ Parent ]
More info?
Could send me more info on the problem you've see using Firefox? Which state? Vote dists or block groups? Which Windows? Anything else relevant? Is yours on Save or what? I can't seem to repro.

Thanks!


[ Parent ]
I just tried it again
it looks like the problem's gone. I guess there was just an issue when the ACS numbers were first uploaded, because I couldn't get anything to load for the first few days afterward.

[ Parent ]
Good to know
If it surfaces again, please let me know. Thanks.

[ Parent ]
I'll look at it
As I said below to Johnny, I've been using Firefox fine. Also IE. Will check.

[ Parent ]
Thanks
Its not a problem I've ever had before, just today its been doing it a lot.  

[ Parent ]
More Info?
I've tried but can't seem to repro. You said you get the crash on Save, right?

Could you give me more info? What state? vote districts or block groups? New Pop Est? Windows 7? Latest Firefox? Anything else you think might be relevant?

Thanks!


[ Parent ]
A special election in FL-25 would be nice.
could help gauge the state of the democratic party in the area after the crap turnout of 2010.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

Good point, and
it's not like anyone in Fl-25 who voted for him can say "Geez, I never would have pegged him for a crook".  They knew what they were getting.

[ Parent ]
If I
was the legislature I would throw in Allen West and David Rivera together in one district. The crook vs. the Muslim bigot, let's see who can out slime the other. Besides I'm sure Boehner is going to make sure any ethics investigation into Rivera proceeds at a snail's pace until the next election.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Technically, if a criminal investigation of a member is ongoing
The House Ethics Committee can't investigate.

[ Parent ]
That's probably the smartest thing to do
There's no way to even keep West's district the way it is with Prop 6 in effect - it's going to become a Dem seat one way or another. So I think sacrificing one district and hoping West can hold down a Cuban seat (it would be a strange situation, but I think it's within the realm of possibility) is the way to go in order to best avert a possible 2-seat loss.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

[ Parent ]
This just reminds us of the strangest game of "musical districts" ever
First, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, just months away from returning to the majority retires at the perfectly young age of 56 seemingly out of the blue to return to his relatively small-ball law firm. Then, his little brother Mario decides to leave his R+5 district for Lincoln's R+5 district next door. And, apparently, they both live in Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's FL-18 to begin with, so the move has nothing to do with Mario's residency.

Has anyone ever figured out what the Diaz-Balarts were thinking?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Apparently, not much.
Didn't one of them interrupt the memorial ceremony for Tom Lantos?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
The 21st is more cuban than the 25th.
I think the Hispanics in Immolakee, which make up a significant number of the Hispanics in the 25th, are mostly Mexican (though I could be wrong about that - anyone want to fill me in?). I think the PVIs are equal because the western fringes of the 25th have some conservative whites to balance out the more liberal Hispanic population.

What I think happened is that LDB got genuinely tired of serving in Congress. The 21st is a much better fit for a Diaz-Balart because it has a much higher concentration of Cubans, so MDB decided to switch in order to make himself safer. Probably not the smartest thing in the world to do (if they had tried to do this in '08 I could see both of those districts turning Dem), but the Diaz-Balarts had enough political capital to pull it off easily in a year like '10.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)


[ Parent ]
South Florida is an ingenious gerrymander
There is an area south of Miami (Kendall, Palmetto Bay) that is heavily non-Cuban Hispanic (lots of Colombians and Central Americans) and votes Democratic. I took a look at in on the DRA and it is split up almost perfectly between FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25. That allows the Cuban areas of Miami (FL-18) and Hialeah (FL-21) and the retirees of Naples (FL-25) to drown them out while keeping all three seats very Latino-heavy.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Mario Diaz-Balart's switch
Is there a chance that districts will be mixed as part of redistricting, and he just wanted to have more people familiar with his name?

[ Parent ]
i'm sure he worked out a plan with the legislature.
I just wonder if it considered the redistricting amendments.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
I think that we are going to become very familiar
with American Crossroads for decades to come.  Now if only Atwater were around, both Rove he have jobs for the rest of their lives!

and he*
I even took time to make sure the grammar was correct.

[ Parent ]
Census
VA now under 65% white, down from 70% in '00 and 76% in '90, no wonder it has become a swing state.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

I can't get those documents to open.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Indeed.
   Prince William county went so heavily for Obama in 2008 partially because of the huge influx of Black and Hispanic voters. DC exurbs are now more diverse than the inner suburbs.

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
Wow, very interesting...
I'm encourage by those numbers. Charlie Cook has VA as Lean Republican, but I think Virginia is Obama's to lose.

[ Parent ]
As I (and pretty much everybody) suspected
Huntsman doesn't even win his home state of Utah in the primaries, where he was an ultra popular governor for a while.

http://polltracker.talkingpoin...

Loses to Romney 48-28.

(sorry of this was posted before, haven't seen it. Sadly, I'm usually that guy.)


Is it possible he's got everyone fooled...
And that he's actually going to run for Senate?  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
gosh, the poll suggests that Huntsman would be a lock
for Hatch's seat

http://polltracker.talkingpoin...

UT R Senate Primary Poll

Huntsman  48%
Chaffetz  23%
Hatch     21%


[ Parent ]
maybe he's this cycle's
jim gilmore.  only competent and likely to win a seat in the senate should he want it.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
You can't use "Jim Gilmore" and "competent" in the same sentence.


[ Parent ]
Yeah you can.
Jim Gilmore is not competent. That works.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
and
they were two separate sentences.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
But its a convention that picks the nominee right?
Or at least the top 2 right? Doesn't the right wing that dominates that convention basicly view him as to far left?

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
He might be able to clear the field (except for Hatch)
As I understand it, Jason Chaffetz, who would probably try to take out Hatch at the convention, is an ally of Huntsman's and probably wouldn't try to stop him. If the convention is Huntsman v Hatch, I think it's over for Orrin.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Ah that works then
I just didn't see how Huntsman could get by both Chaffetz and Hatch since they are both to the right of him but if it's only the two the anti-inucmbent feeling would be enough plus I imagine Huntsman is more personally popular even if he is slightly more to the left.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
is huntsman the kind guy who would challenge a sitting senator?
unless the senator is corrupt, or incompetent, it usually takes a certain kind of ambitious person/prick to challenge a non doomed, non lieberman incumbent.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
there's some sort of agreement being worked out where Hatch retires but passes the torch to Huntsman so that the seat stays in the hands of someone who is not extreme. That's probably not very likely, but Huntsman is young and could probably came out in that seat for as long as Hatch has.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Sam Graves
passes on running against McCaskill. Will stay in the house.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/-...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Wonder why
Maybe the primary that's sure to be a pissing match or he doesn't want a tough fight.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
He
doesn't want to give up his gavel at the House Small Business committee probably.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Oh yes.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Mississippi Census
In the net growth of people, there was almost 8 times as many Blacks than Whites. http://m.clarionledger.com/app... Is this because Katrina-hit gulf coast is more white?

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8

Virginia census results
Looks like the division of legislative services will be posting the data here:

http://dlsgis.state.va.us/2010...

Interestingly, looks like the 11th is over the second most (after the 10th), and the 2nd and 3rd are under the most. I wasn't expecting the 2nd to be that bad.

In the House of Delegates, the 13th, 32nd, and 33rd districts (in the Loudoun/Prince William area) have enough extra people between them to create two new districts. In Hampton Roads, I expect the 87th is going to get the axe, as it's underpopulated, and the 100th (Eastern Shore district with one precinct in Norfolk) is way under.  


Carolyn Goodman
Not Carol. Check the googles.

The other MA Senate Seat opening up?
http://www.boston.com/bostongl...

The Bay State's senior senator is running an unofficial campaign to become the next secretary of state. For once, he looks artful, as well as ambitious.

If Hillary were to leave after '12 as the article speculates, it would give her time to untie herself a bit from the Obama administration.  


Now or later?
If things go south in Egypt I could see Obama needing to make a change at State. Hard to fathom pushing Hilary Clinton overboard though and it's not like there is anywhere else for her to go (since she doubled down on her NO to DoD).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Well, the Secretary of State has lately only served for four years
George Shultz (82-89) was the last one who served for more than that. There's been the suggestion that Hillary be appointed SecDef, but I doubt that will happen.

Kerry was on the shortlist for SecState in '08, I believe. Since there's a good chance he'll lose the chairmanship of the Foreign Relations committee after the 2012 elections, I'm not surprised he's looking for a more prominent job as a capstone for his career.


[ Parent ]
Politically speaking,
I hate this idea if it opens up the other senate seat. I could easily see voters voting for Brown and whatever candidate the Democrats put up for Kerry's seat.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Hillary
I think she may have her eye's on Ginsburg's seat on the Supreme Court. There may be a "gentlewoman's agreement" in place for Hillary to serve a few years at State (where I think she has greatly helped Obama and his administration), Ginsburg to retire in 2012, and Obama to appoint Clinton to the seat. It would have the added benefit of energizing Clinton supporters behind Obama going into the election.

This is completely conjecture, of course, but it makes more sense to me than Hillary as SoD. And I don't think she's going to run for President again, but that's a can of worms I don't want to open.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


[ Parent ]
Chicago-Mayor
Race goes into the gutter....as in gutter I mean the Jerry Springer kind. Jesus Christ and I thought Ramn Emanuel would be the one to do some news worthy tirades.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12


The biggest problem for Moseley Braun is this (perhaps) makes Watkins a somewhat viable candidate
The last thing Moseley Braun needs is for Watkins to become what Del Valle is to Chico - that is, someone garnering high single-digits, all out of the other person's key demographic base. I still say Moseley Braun is the #2 if Emanuel fails to cross the run-off mark, but this all but ensures she'd be totally doomed in the run-off.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I don't see Rahm there
normally, a candidate who doesn't show up for a forum looks bad,

but Rahm is the front runner, and the outburst makes sorta delegitimizes the forum.


[ Parent ]
Rand Paul Running For President?
He would be destroyed, barring something unusual. Outside of committed conservatives and those who adore his father and therefore probably wouldn't vote for a Democrat under any circumstances, who is going to vote for him? Kentucky is a red enough state that he was able to win convincingly in a Republican year, but I don't see any appeal, at all, to swing voters.

But hey, why not? He's more reasonable a candidate than Bachmann. Not a high hill to climb, of course.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


One Paul platform -- cut all foreign aid
http://www.theatlanticwire.com...

Senator Rand Paul is holding strong on his proposal to cut all U.S. foreign aid--including Israel's annual check of $3 billion.

If I understand the farside ref correct, it looks like cat fud mixed with bags of tea.


[ Parent ]

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