| I have done a couple things I've never seen anywhere else in an Ohio map. I'm not sure if it's good or bad.
Here's the state:
Let's start in the Southwest
1st-yellow: Steve Chabot
Chabot loses some bluer precincts to the east and expands into the suburbs, probably making this Likely R rather than Toss-Up. Lean R in a bad year like '08.
2nd-green: Jean Schmidt
Schmidt's district is safe for anybody but her. I don't really think any Democrat could hold it, so if she goes down and is replaced by someone with the same voting record but not as crazy, the GOP shouldn't mind. They will hold this 8 of the 10 years, at least. Plus, endangering her is the only way to make Chabot safe.
3rd-tan: Mike Turner
Turner loses a rural county and adds some suburbs. If anything, it gets a little bit safer.
8th-red: John Boehner
The Speaker must take on some new territory. He might live out of the district, in which case he can swap a bit of territory with Chabot for no partisan effect. Anyone worried about a defeat, incumbents don't lose in R+10 districts without a huge scandal or gaffe (see Sali, Bill)
4th-yellow: Jim Jordan
The RSC chair swaps some rural counties. That's basically it. Except he doesn't really live in the district. I should have looked into that before I drew the map. However, who is going to challenge him and win? He can run in the 4th anyways.
5th-turquoise: Bob Latta
Latta takes on the (swingy? lean r? someone from ohio inform me) Toledo suburbs and some other swingy areas. It's probably only Lean R rather than Likely, but it would be an uphill climb for any Democrat.
I created the Columbus Dem vote sink many people agree should exist, most likely eliminating Steve Stivers, the most moderate Ohio GOPer anyways.
7th: Steve Austria-gray
Austria takes on more of the Columbus suburbs and the whiter parts of Columbus. He's still safe.
15th: Columbus--area Democrat--salmon
It's safe for our side, and makes the surrounding districts safe as well.
12th: Pat Tiberi-light blue
Tiberi's district gets much safer. He could face a primary challenge I guess, or he'll tack right a bit.
Then there's the 6th: Bill Johnson-pink in zoomed in maps, blue in statewide map
Johnson gets much safer with the elimination of the rest of Mahoning County. He still has Athens in the district, though.
16th: Jim Renacci-orange
Renacci loses inner-city Canton, something else I've never seen. This should make him safe, with an already R-tilting district.
This sets up the incredibly ugly:
13th: Tim Ryan-bright green
Taking in industrial areas along Lake Erie, Democratic Mahoning and Warren Counties, inner-city Canton, Alliance, and the most populated parts of Portage County, Ryan has an incredible gerrymander going for him. It's ugly, but makes Kucinich's elimination possible and makes Renacci safe.
14th: Steven LaTourette-brick
I'd be concerned about replacing him in a completely 50 50 district. He's probably safe, but a successor might not be.
How was this all possible?
By using water contiguity in Lake Erie.
9th: Marcy Kaptur-gold
Taking in Toledo, Lorain County, and Western Cuyahoga, Kaptur's new district is an uber-Dem vote sink. She could be primaried by Kucinich, as this district is more liberal with less of a Toledo influence in the Democratic primary, and he probably doesn't have anywhere else to go.
10th: Betty Sutton-pale pink
Sutton takes in much of Kucinich's Cleveland Suburbs, the Democratic parts of Summit County, and some exurbs in between for a safe district that is shaped similarly to her own but contains some new territory.
11th: Marcia Fudge-puke
A fitting color for a representative who tried to weaken ethics laws. Fudge's district is slightly under 50% Black, which could be tweaked if it looked uglier (possibly)
And there you have it! |
