Public Policy Polling (1/26-27, Nebraska voters, no trendlines):
Ben Nelson (D-inc): 39
Jon Bruning (R): 50
Undecided: 11Ben Nelson (D-inc): 42
Deb Fischer (R): 35
Undecided: 22Ben Nelson (D-inc): 42
Pat Flynn (R): 33
Undecided: 24Ben Nelson (D-inc): 41
Don Stenberg (R): 45
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±3.1%)
In case you were wondering maybe PPP would find significantly better results for Ben Nelson than the couple of Republican pollsters who’ve looked at the race did — maybe there was an inkling of hope there based on Barack Obama’s better-than-expected performance there in the presidential portion of their poll — guess again. PPP finds pretty similar numbers as Magellan did in December (Magellan gave GOP AG Jon Bruning a 14-pt lead and state Treasurer Don Stenberg a 6-point lead). Nelson does beat some weaker opponents, teabagging businessman Pat Flynn (the only announced candidate besides Bruning) and state Sen. Deb Fischer, but that seems mostly name rec-driven, with Nelson still in the low 40s.
Nelson’s down to a 39/50 approval (which compares to Bruning’s 42/26 favorables), which is parsed out to 26/64 among Republicans, 47/43 among indies, and even a not-so-good 58/33 among Dems, for many of whom he’s probably too conservative. Given the Republican registration advantage in Nebraska, it looks like Nelson just isn’t getting the crossover votes he got the last few times he ran that helped him win; exit polls in 2006 gave him 42% of the Republican vote then (although it’s worth noting that was against weak opposition in the form of Pete Ricketts) but he’s getting 16-17% support now. Increased polarization over the last few years (and his role at the very core of the polarizing health care reform debate, with the unsatisfying-to-anybody-except-himself “Cornhusker Kickback”) is making Nelson look pretty anachronistic, at this point.
but i wouldn’t want to be him.
Assuming that happens are their any logical Democratic candidates who could put up a fight? Maybe Bob Kerrey can move back but that’s probably to much to hope for after 2008.
Sad to see Gentle Ben looking so likely to go. I’m not a huge fan of his, but I certainly like him a lot more than AG Bruning. We certainly need to contest every seat and put up a fight here, but I think its best we be honest and admit he doesn’t start out favored at all. Lean Rep?
Throw in the likelihood that Obama won’t contest NE at all this year if the NE Leg votes to go to “winner take all”. I mean, what’s the point in even bothering with Omaha if that’s the case? Frankly, the only inland Western states that Obama should contest are NV and CO (assuming that NM is Likely D).
On the bright side, Dems could still keep their Senate losses to 2 seats, and if we can win MA and NV, that means we break even. Dems have a great talent for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory, but I think we’ll do a lot better than the law of averages says we will, just as the GOP did in 2010.
In general, I think this is going to be like a 1996-style election: Obama will end up winning fairly convincingly, a few seats will change hands, but the balance of power will be about what it was going in. And frankly, if it means we’ve got actual Democrats from MA and NV representing those seats, I don’t mind losing Nelson all that much.
Below 50 is obviously not good for an incumbent however it looks like if he doesn’t run against Bruning the race will be a toss-up instead of a Lean R.
Triage?
Because seriously, with these numbers, what’s the point? Unless Obama can pick up an electoral vote in Omaha, there’s really no reason to even bother with contesting Nebraska, especially for a Senate vote that’s as unreliable as Nelson’s.
then that is very good.
The best thing in Nelson’s favor is he faces no consensus candidate (now anyway). If the GOP acts here like everywhere else, nelson will face either a looney or at the least a weakened candidate.
The Senator’s vote for socialized health care will be a constant thorn in his side till election day. In a state where abortion is deeply unpopular he voted for a health care program that supports abortion.
http://www.lifenews.com/2011/0…
Jesse Helms polled worse than this in 1983, so Nelson has a great shot at coming back.
On the other hand, MA-Sen is at least Lean D. Lincoln Chafee had similar approvals to Scott Brown early on, and look what happened to him.
“Here’s a rundown of potentially vulnerable senators and their current cash on hand amount (numbers were not available Tuesday for some members):
Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) $7.2 million
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) $2.5 million
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) $2.4 million
Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) $2.35 million
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) $2 million
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) $1.5 million
Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) $1.45 million
Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) $1.3 million
Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) $1.2 million
Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) $1.1 million
Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) $1 million
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) $900,000
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) $562,000
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) $536,000
Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) $511,000
Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) $444,000
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) $377,000
Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii) $66,000″
I think Sander’s only counts as “vulnerable” on The Fix list because of his CoH (he put the benchmark at $1M), can’t see that race being close.
Sandlin would be the favorite.
http://www.publicpolicypolling…
I’d say odds are that she does seek a rematch, and she probably win.