If true, this is going to be a titanic clash:
Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) will announce Saturday he is challenging Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).
“It’s happening Saturday,” said a knowledgeable Montana GOP political operative. “He’s running. There is a lot of support and enthusiasm back home, and Denny knows he can win.”
And some internal polling, including a weird three-way matchup:
The operative offered some internal Rehberg polling numbers showing the Montana Republican in a statistical tie with Tester in a prospective 2012 matchup.
The Opinion Diagnostics survey of 400 likely Montana voters showed 49 percent backing Rehberg compared with 43 percent for Tester and 8 percent undecided. In a three-way matchup featuring Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer running as an independent, Rehberg led 44 percent to Tester’s 28 percent and Schweitzer’s 18 percent. Eleven percent were undecided.
The poll, conducted Jan. 5, has a margin of error of 4.65 percent.
SSP is on the verge of publishing our senate race ratings, and internally, we’d already agreed that MT-Sen was a Tossup prior to this announcement. This news confirms our view that this race will definitely start life as a Tossup.
Is there a link anywhere to the internal poll Rehberg references?
It’s barely February, and the GOP already has three races that should initially rank, at worst for them, as toss-ups: North Dakota, Nebraska, and now Montana. That puts sure-to-be-competitive races like VA, MO, OH, and MI on the second tier, somehow.
It seems the GOP is carrying momentum from the 2010 races, but remember that, in the early going of last cycle, Dems thought they were in a good position and the first four developments of the cycle were GOP retirements in swing states (FL, OH, MO, and NH). It’ll be somewhat different this time since Presidential years tend to regress toward the mean (that is, little change), rather than be a wave year, but nonetheless.
Why would that be a scenario that warranted attention? Is there a possiblity that the outgoing governor would make a run as one?
Why would that be a scenario that warranted attention? Is there a possiblity that the outgoing governor would make a run as one?
any chance of a Teabagger making trouble for Rehberg?
I know two candidates tried to oust in him a primary last June. They didn’t really come close, but you have to wonder if they will be a little more focused this time should they want to try to prevent him from getting the nomination.
This is clearly a nice recruiting job by Cornyn and Company. This is going to be a very tough race but certainly not an impossible race to win. Tester has a persona that goes over very well with people from Montana and his background as a farmer clearly contrasts most Senators (and Rehberg). This will be Rehberg’s first real race in many cycles and potentially the most “damaging” things to him are that he is suing the city of Billings fire department for not “stopping the fire on his property”. Guess he is not the only MT GOPer who isn’t after the Firemen’s votes (for those who don’t remember Conrad Burns told the fire department that they did a piss poor job in containing a wildfire; at the airport; while we running a tight re-election race):
http://billingsgazette.com/new…
He was also involved in a boating accident where his friend was charged with a DUI:
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi…
It is going to be a very tough and likely nasty race. Unlike Kos this Latino is very happy to support Tester even though I was disappointed with his Dream Act vote.
The Missoula Independent had a geat article ‘Schweitzer’s last stand,’ http://missoulanews.bigskypres…
that disgusses the comming 2011 legislative session and the issues facing Montana. Perhaps most significant to this conversation are the comments concerning oil, gas,coal and the environment. Schweitzer has really changed his tune on energy issues in Montana and it just might make him look like a great independent candidate.
The Missoula Independent had a geat article ‘Schweitzer’s last stand,’ http://missoulanews.bigskypres…
that discusses the comming 2011 legislative session and the issues facing Montana. Perhaps most significant to this conversation are the comments concerning oil, gas,coal and the environment. Schweitzer has really changed his tune on energy issues in Montana and it just might make him look like a great independent candidate.
in North Dakota. We can’t afford to cede that state if we have an uphill climb in Montana. Hopefully Murray is working the mackdown on the Pomeroy’s and Heitkamp’s of the world.
First, the great news is that this gives Democrats a great opportunity to win Montana’s congressional seat. Already, Bozeman legislator Franke Wilmer has announced. She’d be the first female elected to congress since Jeanette Rankin. Of particular interest is how she announced. She had the news broken on Twitter by Ellie Hill. Is is a Missoula legislator, progressive hero, long-time netroots, Young Dems National VP. Pretty awesome first endorsement and way to get her name out there.
Second, there may be no candidate in the country who an oppo-guy would rather face than Denny Rehberg. The ads against him could rival the famous Gay Hairdresser ad that re-elected Baucus by getting the Republican to suspend his campaign in 2002.
One thing is for sure, with Schweitzer termed and the cascade of open seats, this will be the biggest election cycle in Montana since the epic ’92 year when two sitting members faced off for the consolidated lone congressional seat while Dems nominated a woman for Governor.
We may finally be free of Rehberg, but the cool thing from a swing state perspective now is the Senate seat, the House seat, the Gov and the Prez races are all more or less tossups. The state could be swept either way, which should lead to both sides putting a lot of money into the state.
In a perfect swing state world, Schweitzer would run for the House as a preliminary to going after Baucus’ seat, which would likely lead to strong candidates running in all six of the top gov/sen/house slots. Could be the most fascinating state of the cycle.