Great post-I appreciate

all the local insight.  Here's one point that I want to clarify or double check on.  I understand the five person bipartisan commission is composed of 5 members.  Two members chosen by republican legislative leaders plus two members chosen by democratic legislative leaders.  Then these four members chose a nonvoting chairman.  The Congressional & legislative maps then require 3 of the 4 voting members to approve a plan.

Yes they have to follow the rules and the maps have tended to be compact with no wild lines.  I tend to believe that a map very similar to yours will be adapted.  

Yes CD 3,4 and 5 will be really close to what you outlined.  Most likely they will be fairly safe GOP.  I think the GOP will end up with a safer CD8.  Its hard to improve CD6 & CD9 without helping Reichardt out.

The big question will be CD1, CD2 and the new CD10. I think its likely some sort of arrangement similar to yours will be worked out.  Those CD's will have a definite D lean but will not be  completely out of the question for either party. There is a chance CD1 & CD2 could be made more secure D and CD10 could even be more of a tossup then you have but that's an open question.  

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by: rdelbov @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 13:16:13 PM UTC

A few comments

first a typo -- Lake Stevens is east (not west) of Everett.

Second, I'm not sure what you mean here

In this scenario, the 6th CD is the entire Olympic Peninsula, the Washington Coast, and most of Cowlitz County and the cities of Olympia, Tumwater and Lacey. While losing his portion of Tacoma, Dicks gains the remainder of Democratic-leaning Kitsap County, and Democratic leaning Olympia. While Dicks is secure about his reelection, the population of the state mean that a Republican-leaning district.

Are you saying that the 6th that you're drawing would lean R? What would the PVI of that district be?

(speaking of which, PVI is a common language here w/r/t congressional district assessments. I notice you haven't included that measure at all.)

In addition, Dicks is the most powerful WA rep. I don't think Boeing would allow Dicks to have anything but a safe district.

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by: tietack @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 13:23:32 PM UTC

Thanks for the edits

(now corrected)

I did not purposefully put in PVIs for the district since the partisan data did not get transported into the 2010 data. I would guess, before I redraw the maps using the earlier data the following PVIs (ranges):

Option 1:                    Option 2:
CD 1: D (+10 to +15)         CD 1: D +1 to R +1*
CD 2: 0 to D+5               CD 2: D (+5 to +10)
CD 3: R (+5 to +10)          CD 3: R (+5 to +10)  
CD 4: R (+10 to +15)         CD 4: R (+10 to +15)  
CD 5: R (+8 to +13)          CD 5: R (+8 to +13)
CD 6: D (+5 to +8)           CD 6: 0 to D+5
CD 7: D (+20 to +25)         CD 7: D (+20 to +25)
CD 8: R (+5 to +10)          CD 8: D (+1 to +4)*
CD 9: D (+5 to +8)           CD 9: D (+2 to +8)
CD 10: D (+8 to +10)         CD 10: D (+5 to +8)

*note CD 1 and CD 2 are switched.
**current WA 8 is D+3

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by: edward @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 16:32:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CD-7

Would the 7th district's PVI really drop from D+31 to D+25 or below? How did the boundaries change?

Radical or something, WA-07

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by: sdkWA @ Mon Mar 07, 2011 at 03:56:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No

The PVIs are a quick guess of what the districts could be. Of the current PVI is D+31, then under this scenario, the PVI would be D+32 or so.

At this high of a PVI, I was not too worried about a low estimate for Representative McDermott's district. I was more concerned with what the PVI for CDs 1, 6, and 8 would be.  

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by: edward @ Mon Mar 07, 2011 at 06:42:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Washington is one of the most Democratic states

It sucks that 6-4 is the likely outcome.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 17:26:03 PM UTC

Obama got 57% in 2008

and that was 4% above his national numbers.  John McCain, however, had been on a 7 year crusade to deprive Boeing of major defense contracts.  McCain exposed bribery that went on the highest levels of Boeing with Pentagon employees.  

That sounds nice but his denying Boeing the Air Tanker project, just awarded to Boeing last month, cost the company 5000 or so jobs in the Seattle area.  McCain was poison as he was rightly perceived as being anti Boeing.

There is no doubt WA is a blue state but certainly no NY or CA or MD or MA.  A shade to the left of PA.  If I just had to say WA might be a bit more democratic then Oregon? Maybe maybe not.  

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by: rdelbov @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 18:10:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yakima

I know there are a lot of Hispanics in Yakima (city and county). Can you draw all of them into the 3rd?

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 17:27:25 PM UTC

Unfortunately no

At least Yakama City that is. Because the 3rd has to stretch from Clark County (Vancouver) across the mountains, it becomes too big when it reaches Yakama.

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by: edward @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 17:35:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Intriguing

I don't see how you could get the Republicans to sign off on plan 2 though. They are not going to want to weaken any of their 4 incumbents, especially if they are sacrificing the 10th right off the bat. Republicans are probably going to insist on something like plan 1, where Reichert and Beutler are strengthened and the 10th is conceded to the Dems. I think 6-4 for a 60-40 state is fair.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 19:25:57 PM UTC

I voted for the option 2

This option is very close to the form that I was giving to some districts, and I posted here time ago in some of diaries about Washington.

WA-07: Seattle. What a tentation to divide Seattle :)

WA-06: I like the district but here I would give to WA-03 all the Lewis County taking in change the rest of Cowlitz County. This would be the most important and necessary change in all the map for me. I think WA-06 would be a little safer, but WA-03 also for the republicans. It would be one county split less and Cowlitz is more a "coast county" than Lewis county, that would respect better the communities of interest. This version of WA-06 would be D+4 plus the effect of the portion of the Kitsap county (55% Obama D+2 all the county). I would like a D+5.

WA-09: I like a lot the district. Taking the most urban part of Pierce county (55% Obama D+2) it seems so easy to have a D+5. Not necessary a better district.

WA-01: Again I like a lot this district taking all the north west by the islands because helps to give to the Snohomish county his own district. The district is D+3 plus the effect of the rest of Kitsap (55% Obama) and the portion of Snohomish (58% Obama). To do the right selection of the portion in Snohomish (maybe more by the coast?) would be very important. If you still have a too much republican part in Snohomish you can prove to change it by Shoreline (link by the coast and currently in WA-01). Then WA-02 would need to give the south east corner of the county to WA-10 but surely would be still over 58% Obama.

WA-02: I like a lot too. Snohomish county has a little more population than the necessary. The county is 58% Obama, and you can give the north west corner to the WA-01 or the south east corner to WA-10 keeping the district a little over D+5.

WA-10: I glad of see a enough safe district here. If need to take the South East of Snohomish, the district can lose terrytory by the south side.

WA-08: I think also about this option, but I was not able for do the stimation. It is right.

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by: abgin @ Sat Mar 05, 2011 at 08:59:32 AM UTC

WA 3

Lewis County population - 75,455
Cowlitz County portion - 85,929

I would agree that it would be nice to give Lewis County to WA 3 (in exchange for most of Cowlitz County). However, this will not fly by the commission. While a strong argument could be made to attach Cowlitz to a coastal district, it will be  harder for the commission to link Lewis County to Clark County (or eastern Washington).

WA 1 - Unfortunately, the northern part of Snohomish County is the Republican portion of the County (and I guesstimate that the Democrats got about 40% of the vote there). Democratic precincts really do not start until you get into Everett or perhaps Marysville. Representative Larson lost in Snohomish County in 2010.

In any event, all of the districts here had a variation of less than 200.  

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by: edward @ Sun Mar 06, 2011 at 05:39:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The change would be very positive

For defend this change it is necessary to find good reasons for show this option is the best. The deviations would be not a trouble here because you can take a little more or a little less part of Kitsap county in WA-06 (WA-01). (Less part of Kitsap in WA-06 mean more part of Kitsap in WA-01 and as consecuence less part of Snohomish in WA-01).

The commission is not working about to leave still J Inslee inside WA-01? It would be prudent because it is not confirmed still he is running for governor. To take this little excess in Cowlitz county would help to cede Bainbrigde Island (home of J Inslee) to WA-01.

And sure you are able for find more reasons for support Cowlitz in WA-06. The change would be very positive. I would try to defend it finding more advantages.

For WA-01, would be possible to give Shoreline (some portion) to WA-01 in the place of the little portion of Snohomish? It also would be a positive change. If you wish to prove it you would see the effect. You will it is easy to keep the new WA-02 over 58% Obama D+5 with the help of WA-10. I have not still enough data for do the stimations in this level (towns or cities).

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by: abgin @ Sun Mar 06, 2011 at 23:55:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A couple of comments

1) The maps were designed to do two things: A) to make a plausible guess at what the commission might do - really, what it means is that the 10th CD will in all likelihood be in eastern King County (without Auburn). B) an attempt to convince those people with influence that there are consequences in appeasing Representative Dicks. Either he gets a safer (or safe) district and the delegation will in all likelihood 6-4, or he accepts a lean district and the commission might draw 8 competitive districts with 7 of those districts favoring Democrats most years.

2) The problem with Washington is that most of the Democratic vote is concentrated in one area of the state - unlike New York, where there are pockets of Democratic bastions throughout the state (Albany, Rochester, Buffalo) - or California (San Diego, Los Angeles, Bay Area, Sacramento) - that could be cracked (to a certain extent). If Seattle is cracked, you have to go a long way (in either direction) to find Republicans. Most of the first tier suburbs in Puget Sound are strongly Democratic.

3) Finally, I doubt the commission would entertain a plan to cross Puget Sound (to Edmonds, not Shoreline) to create a more Democratic district. A couple of additional responses: 1) In option 2, giving Bainbridge Island to WA 1 would have the effect of really making Representative Dick's WA 6 shaky. 2) You could have WA 1 dip into Everett, and it would make WA 1 marginally safer. I was trying to avoid county and city splits whenever possible.

As a partisan, I do like your ideas, but whether they are worth championing to the commission is a different matter.
 

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by: edward @ Mon Mar 07, 2011 at 07:19:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I understand

It is not easy to find the right balance. They are not big changes, I would not call WA-06 and WA-01 totally safe cause of this. These districts would be surely less safe than the republicans WA-05, WA-04 and WA-03.

I know not what would be the procedure if the commission fails and if the state supreme court would have some word here. The majority in the court would not be hostile.

I draw maps about other states, and I would tell Washington has not a bad distribution of the democratic vote comparing to other states. For make a really strong democratic Gerrymander it would be necessary to divide Seattle, but it would be not difficult with other system for redistricting.

Like I tell you before, I think the map is going by the right way if we think in the redistricting procedure for Washington. Obviously I would divide Seattle if it would be possible :)

As resume my advice for improve a little the Washington map over the basis of your map:

- Bid if it is acceptable to change part of Cowlitz by all Lewis (WA-06 and WA-03). This would have some effect in the portions of Kitsap for WA-06 and WA-01.

- Bid some way for do a little more democratic WA-01 with some help form WA-10 and without damage WA-02.

Like I see you closely involved in the process, I wish you the best luck.

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by: abgin @ Mon Mar 07, 2011 at 15:12:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for the suggestions

I agree. I will see what a map looks like with Lewis County in the 3rd CD.  

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by: edward @ Tue Mar 08, 2011 at 00:43:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Other argument for helping the change can be the next

Lewis county is currently in WA-03 with Clark county.

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by: abgin @ Mon Mar 07, 2011 at 09:08:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As for those legislative districts...

Are any of the districts in the rural east majority or plurality hispanic. I know that several of the counties in the area are. I know much of that is a noncitizen population but is there any VRA obligation?

32, M, MI-6, Iconoclastic Leftist

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by: octaviuz @ Mon Mar 07, 2011 at 13:25:15 PM UTC

Hispanic Percentages

CD 15 (Yakama County, Klickitat, Skamania counties) :
W - 44.7%
H - 46.9%

CD 14 (City of Yakama)
W - 59.6%
H - 34.7%

CD 16 (Rural Benton and Walla Walla Counties, Pasco):
W - 55.7%
H - 39.4%

CD 18 (Richland, Kennewick)
W - 75.5%
H - 16.8%

CD 12 (Middle of the State)
W - 63.1%
H - 32.2%

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by: edward @ Tue Mar 08, 2011 at 00:41:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

so why is Seattle sacrosanct?

While it may be the dream of many Democrats to split Seattle, it is not going to happen. The commission respects geographic cohesiveness,

which is why Tacoma, Bellevue and Renton are always getting split up in all sorts of weird ways.  Sorry, I'm not buying it.  

If Norm Dicks can "take one for the team", Jim McDermott sure as hell can.  Even just reducing his win margins from 85% to 65% still frees up a whole mess of Democratic voters who can vote elsewhere.

And there are more ways to split Seattle than just those that involve sending a pseudopod across the water; just shifting CD7 north or south (i.e., make it be a Shoreline-centric or a Southcenter-centric district) -- depending on what's happening in Snohomish and northward -- would be a vast improvement over the current state of affairs.

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by: wrog @ Tue Mar 08, 2011 at 08:06:28 AM UTC

Seattle

I am not sure what dividing up Seattle accomplishes. The first tier suburbs (Shoreline and Edmonds in the north and SeaTac and Renton in the South) are generally Democratic. Putting them in a district with Seattle does not help the map.  

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by: edward @ Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 21:19:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]