Google Ads


Site Stats

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Jan 28, 2011 at 6:00 PM EST


James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 368 comments
OT-Egypt
continuing my bit from the daily thread, looks like Egypt is going into revolution. I should read what I already have -- http://pewglobal.org/2010/06/1...

Overall, support for suicide bombing is much lower now among Muslim publics than it was in the middle of the last decade, although there have been slight increases this year in Jordan and Egypt. And, as in previous years, publics in countries with largely Muslim populations continue to be concerned about the rise of Islamic extremism, both in their countries and around the world.

which makes me hopeful that if Mubarak goes, we won't get another Iran.

But the risks if something goes wrong are rather high.

Ya
that's the problem with revolutions like that. Often they end up with the new boss the same as the old one. Actually that fits perfectly with this quote from Starcraft 2:

Horner: Overthrowing Menesk is just the start, this is about building a better tomorrow. Don't you see? We just released every scientist, philosopher and free thinker that ever challenged Menesk's rule.

Tosh: You really that naive? Tomorrow they'll be a new Menesk and another one after that. Your great shining future is just an illusion.

Anyway this is really OT so I'll leave it at that.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Whats
keeping these protests from merely turning into the ones that happened in Iran last year? While the Egyptian government is most likely less powerful than the Iranian one, I would think that these protests will die down eventually like the green "Revolution" in Iran.    

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Egyptian government...
... is far more reliant on the support of the West, substantially more integrated with the West (which limits the ability of the regime to crack down as harshly as the Iranians), and has a much less extensive security apparatus.

Not saying it could go wrong, but it's a fairly different situation. I'd say the ship has sailed, although I suppose anything is possible.  

[ Parent ]
My concern is...
...that you're not going to get a revolution or real democracy. But either Mubarak still in charge or a military coup.  And that either will reach out to the Muslim Brotherhood for legitimacy.

I'm doubtful that the young and the middle class who we see on television will ultimately be in the drivers seat when all is said and done.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Possible, but don't assume so
Egypt actually has a broadly functioning civil society - NGOs, rights groups, some legal opposition political parties, and a relatively free press. Moreover, over the past decade, Mubarak was liberalizing somewhat, which had fed some hopes among Egyptians that with the presidential election this year, he'd step down and permit a real contest. It was his decision to instead intensify political control last year and then run for reelection that, according to Fareed Zakaria, may have set off Egyptians' anger. There had seemed to be a light at the end of the tunnel, and it got extinguished.

Also, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is actually very moderate these days. It has gone through several splits, and most of the radicals long since walked off. Al Qaeda and the more radical Islamists have completely denounced it for being co-opted by the West, and the MB now is mostly linked to Turkey's AK Party and supports ElBaradei for president.

The main impediment to a democratic regime would seem to be the army, which could potentially make Mubarak go, but then install one of their own and merely permit some cosmetic reforms.  

[ Parent ]
So Elbaradei would be the consensus alternative
I found this analysis enlightening
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41...

though it disses the Muslim Brotherhood.

[ Parent ]
Follow-up apparently from Al Jazzera English
http://www.theatlantic.com/int...
Al Jazeera English reports that opposition groups have unified behind Mohamed ElBaradei, who they have selected as the planned interim president if they are successful in forcing President Hosni Mubarak from power. ElBaradei is reportedly now on his way to Tahrir Square in Cairo.

Sounds like he's going to speak to the crowd soon, possibly in a speech reminiscent of Boris Yeltsin.

[ Parent ]
I'll speak from some on the ground studying in Egypt
I was lucky enough to do a three and a half-week January-term study abroad course in Egypt for 2008.  The class was studying and viewing Egypt from it's ancestry to it's present.  I chose to do my final paper for the class on Egyptian politics and what I learned was that the Egyptian government is oppressive for one major reason; the Muslim Brotherhood political party and organization (Sharia-law oriented and jihadist) can never come to power nor be deemed legitimate.  Egypt has aimed to become the major point of diplomacy and development in the Middle East and so they have aimed to have a purely secular government, and this has come at the expense of free speech because they do not want a situation where democracy leads to terrorist governments like Palestine.  I would educatedly guess them being a major tourist destination has made this so.  (Imagine telling your tour group that it's time to slip on the burqas and get off the bus.)

If Mubarak were to step-down and let the country vote freely, he would probably very much favor ElBaradei as the opposition candidate at the very least as he's at least a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and would hopefully rule as such.  While I can speculate that Mubarak is a power-hungry asshole who loves being President, the fact is that he has long been tied to Western powers and ruled undemocratically because he believes he is acting in the good of the country by ensuring the country never falls to radical Islamic beliefs.  ElBaradei has the potential to rule freely and without the support of terrorists, and I think that has always been the long-term vision anyway for an Egyptian government.

[ Parent ]
Appreciate the perspective
From my reading, the Muslim Brotherhood has lost credibility; there's talk about how they've been co-opted by the West. One thing where I have no info is more radical alternatives to MB.

Don't know about the secular nature of some of the alternatives, say the Wafd or Tomorrow parties -- do you have any sense of that?

[ Parent ]
very glad I went through my archives*
to find the paper.  The Wafd party died long ago and was the major secularist party of the time.  I didnt give years for some stupid, sophomore reason but IIRC, the Wafd Party puttered out in the 1950's.  In their steed came another pro-Western, anti-Democratic and anti-Islamic Party, and this is what resulted in Mubarak.  The Wafd Party was the anti-Islamists way back when, and the three Presidents** of a "free" Egypt has emulated this secularist party since.

*My archives is what I'm going to start calling my external hard drive.  21st century ftw!

**Three Presidents would mean that we are only including Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak.  Muhammad Naguib was the first President of a non-British Egypt but was a military leader who only served for a year.

[ Parent ]
Thank you!, n/t

[ Parent ]
Whereas, in an extreme rarity, I agree with Rich Lowry at NRO......
Here's the link:  http://www.nationalreview.com/...

And here's the key graf, emphasis mine:

It is possible to see Mubarak preparing the ground for his exit.  His choice of Omar Suleiman as vice president and Ahmed Shafik as prime minister puts in the line of the succession the two men he would most like to see in control to protect Egpyt, and him and his family, should he step down.  One observer just told me these appointments show a flow of power to the military in a kind of "soft coup."  The best case is that these men will be able, in a post-Mubarak government, to sell themselves to the people as honest brokers who will keep order until a genuinely free and fair presidential election later in the year.  Such an election would probably produce a president who is more nationalist, and more anti-American and anti-Israel, than Mubarak. If that's regrettable, it's also unavoidable.  I thought President Obama basically struck the right note yesterday, but, as often happens in a revolutionary situation, his line was quickly overtaken by events.  Maybe events will shift in a radically new direction in coming hours and days, but it looks like we need to start trying to shape the best possible post-Mubarak future.

I agree with that, and I'm surprised a conservative admits to our having so little control.  That's not like the wingnuts, they think America as the world's policeman should be able to pull everyone's strings.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yup
If we wait, the resulting regime could very well be more radical, more anti-American, more destabilizing. And the result could very well set the stage for future events in Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the other GCC states.
[ Parent ]
Hence the need for the White House and Foggy Bottom...
To signal outright support for ElBaradei and a democratic transition. Is that equivalent to stabbing President Mubarak in the back? Yes, it is. But it's better than being on the wrong side and taking the heat for supporting a disgraced dictator against the will of the people, which anti-American candidates would certainly point out in their campaigning.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
This is President Obama's big foreign policy test
We waited waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too long to "find" an exile for the Shah in '79 (we never officially looked after him, even though his stay in the US for medical treatment was a diplomatic disaster).

And that exile better be someplace uninteresting for anyone in Egypt. (maybe some South American country.)

But if we just stab Mubarak in the back, the House of Saud could very easily retaliate. $150/bbl for oil anyone?

[ Parent ]
risk
You don't want to get into a Venezuela-type situation where you back the opposition and then the government manages to stay in power. That kills your ability to work with the government.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
You can't officially back the opposition
They can come out in support of free elections, but signaling support for a specific opposition group could make that party look like US stooges and could cause a backlash.

Plus, we don't want to give the impression that we're trying to control who governs Egypt. (And truthfully, though Egypt is a big U.S. ally, we have far less influence than people assume. Egypt is not a small Latin American country circa 1920 -- their leadership is largely decided by Egyptian elements. We've just been happy to work with the existing group because they want military hardware and we want them to keep a cold peace with Israel.)

[ Parent ]
Plus
we haven't had a good track record in the Middle East when we meddled with another country's affairs. (One area where I'm in agreement with Ron Paul on.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
You're correctly pointing to the other danger
which I sum up in three words:

Ngo Dinh Diem

Perhaps JFK's biggest mistake.

[ Parent ]
The part you bolded is exactly wrong in my opinion
These protests are being carried out by secular, highly educated people who want things to change. This isn't like Iran's 1979 revolution, that was backed by religious forces within the state.  I honestly believe that this will be a large net positive if Mubarack hands over power to the opposition.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
And what's your basis for believing that???......
The protestors are "highly educated" and "secular" based on what reporting?  I'm skeptical western news organizations have a good sense of who they are as a group, or if they're really from many groups.  And I haven't seen confident reporting of their demographics in the first place.

Most people in Egypt and all the other Arab countries despise America.  That's long been true.  That's actually been polled by Pew and maybe others.  And it's not the least bit surprising.  Mubarek's regime and Sadat's before him have been secular, marginally pro-western governments.

Any elected Egyptian government that truly represents the views of the masses will be much more anti-American than any Egyptian government since at least the mid-1970s.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Well, Iran's revolution wasn't necessarily Islamist
It was very broad-based, and Khomeini was initially embraced as a unifying spiritual figure. It was only afterwards that Khomeini and radical Islamists seized power, using the hostage crisis and the Iran-Iraq War to eliminate internal opponents and set up a clerical state.

That said, I don't think this is equivalent to Iran 1979. There's no Khomeini-like figure, and Sunnism is much less hierarchical than Shi'ism, which means that there's very little basis for theocratic rule. What even the Muslim Brotherhood seeks is just civilian rule along Islamic lines, and in recent years, Turkey's ruling AK Party has emerged as a widely-touted model in the Arab world.

Observers on the ground do say that the MB is less popular today than it once was and that they're seen as having been co-opted by the regime, but I suspect if free elections were held, they would still emerge as the largest bloc. However, I also think they will likely have to govern in coalition with secular parties and probably support neutral figures as Prime Minister and president. And it's likely that even if Mubarak is pushed out, the army is going to have a major role in the background, particularly on foreign policy issues and certain "red lines" about religion and state, similar to the role Turkey's military long played.  

[ Parent ]
If we end up with another Nasser
I'll be relieved. (I'd be even more relieved if Egypt ends up like Turkey as you suggest, even with an AK type government which blurs their separation of church and state).

It'd be a pain in the **** for our foreign policy, but we've lived through Nasser-type annoyances before. And who knows, it might even lead to the US actually respecting other nations.

One thing for sure -- this is a test of the value of foreign aid. The question is what result would mean that foreign aid to Egypt is a "success". Foreign aid may still end up as a prime Tea Party target, but such a "success" would link foreign aid pretty strongly to national security.

[ Parent ]
Well, Nasser was a military dictator...
... and I think this has gotten well past the point where that would be acceptable to most people. If anything, a renewed dictatorship would probably produce even more headaches. The U.S. would probably have to restrict aid in the aftermath, and a shaky new military regime might become more anti-American and nationalistic just to shore up its position.

[ Parent ]
Nasser was a popular strongman
While that type of rule would not be acceptable to most Americans -- if someone tried to implement it in the US, it has worked in Egypt before.

If such a successor strongman were popular, there would be no significant unrest, and therefore no reason to restrict aid.

And there's no reason to believe that a strongman would be any more or less anti-American or nationalistic than a leader elected in the fashion of a western democracy. (Nasser was certainly a pain in the behind of several US Presidents.)

I do not favor such an option, but that is a decision for the Egyptian people.  

[ Parent ]
More Polling data from Egypt
courtesy of the BBC, crunched by Nate http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

Egyptian views of the US (Polls taken in April of each year)

Year      Mostly Positive  v.  Mostly Negative

2007          11                    59
2008          16                    73
2009          40                    48
2030          45                    29

[ Parent ]
Yikes, I meant 2010, not 2030.....

[ Parent ]
so, while you're being psychic
would you like to tell us the result of every election for the next 20 years? save us all some worry and anguish? Thanks.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
LOL ;)
wouldn't you like to know?
[ Parent ]
Gee, what changed from 2008 to 2009?
I have no idea...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
interesting...
I wonder what even at the end of '08 and the beginning of '09 caused a 24 point upswing for a positive view of America :p
[ Parent ]
Question Time:
Last week I asked who were the worst candidates in recent political history. Now, I'm going to ask the reverse: who have been the strongest candidates in the past ten years?

20, Ind, PA-14
I
say Harry Reid

His ability to define both Angle and Lowden with highly negative ads and his infamous "non-aggressive" pact with the state GOP earns him my respect politically and is why he was re-elected with horrible approval ratings  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
Obama, Schwarzenegger, and Klobuchar
Those are the first three names that leap to mind. A first-term who beats the Clintons in the primaries and posts the biggest win by a Democratic presidential candidate since the 1960s in the general. A Republican who posted two enormous wins for California's top job. And a county DA who beat a congressman by over 20 points for a Senate seat.  
[ Parent ]
Arnold ran against two walking corpses
Whitman probably would have won under the same circumstances.

You can't win any "great" points beating Davis/Cruz/Angelides.

[ Parent ]
Arnie didn't just beat them...
he won very decisively and got good crossover support.  Then, in 2010, those crossovers went back home.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The crossovers go back before 2010

Schwartzenegger can not be considered one of the strongest politicians in the last years cause of his end. This end come from back, come from his policies. He was not able for work with a balanced budget. It is easy to take his way, very low taxes (for be popular with the high imcome people) and good level of public services (for be popular with the low income people)... until the debt get out control... and the state approach to the bankrupcy...


[ Parent ]
The Question Asked About "Candidate"
Who are the best politicians, in terms of who can maintain their support over time, is a completely different question.
[ Parent ]
I think he got lucky more then anything.
But in terms of wins i'll agree.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
But that is the point
He beat the weakest candidates that existed.  Whitman or Fiorina or Campbell or anyone similar would have won under the circumstances too.

Also "maintaining support" IS part of being a politician, especially as an executive.

[ Parent ]
2006
The state benefitted from a bubble-driven revenue surge in the mid-00s, enabling him to do a bunch of crowd-pleasing things. When the economy imploded, his ratings tanked.

I think Whitman would have beaten Gray Davis in the recall because people were mad at Davis, and beaten Angelides in 2006 only if she had been the incumbent. He probably would have beaten her this year. It's become very, very difficult for a Republican to win an open statewide office here. Dan Lungren looked like a strong candidate against Davis for the open governor's seat in 1998, and Davis thumped him.    

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Lungren's flame-out was epic
Because just two years earlier, as State AG, he actually made Bob Dole's shortlist for Vice President. He was a big national star, making the cover of National Review and being touted all over the national conservative press as "the next Ronald Reagan."

Then he got crushed by Davis by something like 15 points. Obviously, he came back later, but nobody talked about him as the next Reagan ever again.  

[ Parent ]
What made him
lose so badly?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It was worse than 15 points, it was 20!!!......
It was 58-38, an overwhelming blowout.  But that was a good Democratic year, I think Brown's 54-41 thumping of Whitman in such a strong Republican year is more impressive in comparison.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Arnold won because he's a movie star.
Well, that and the murder-suicide that was the 2006 Democratic primary.
[ Parent ]
Well, Of Course
Famous candidates win by statistically significant greater margins that. That makes them better candidates. Heath Shuler, Alan Page, Bill Bradley, Steve Largent - all great candidates, regardless of any skills they have (or in some cases don't) to do their jobs.
[ Parent ]
Ok.
Harry Reid- Without a doubt the best this decade. Seriously AMAZING.

Barack Obama- He beat the machine in the primary and did amazing in the general.

Michael Bennet- This guy has a real future. I know it was Ken Buck but still he should not have won.

Michelle Bauchmann(08) How you can go on nationally syndicated television and act like Joe freaking McCarthy and that's not even the worst and still win. Amazing.

Mitch Daniels (04 and 08) Both runs were good. Kernan was fairly popular and he ran a really strong campaign. Given in 08 JLT contributed to the blowout but he still ran a strong campaign.

Jerry Brown That Arnold-Whitman ad was genius.

The Chipper He did the impossible.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Who's the Chipper?

[ Parent ]
The Chipper
I suspect he is Chip Cravaack.
[ Parent ]
Chip Cravaack


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
How
could I forget Scott Brown? I suppose Rick Scott should also go on my list.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Michele Bachmann
she does have the most Republican district in Minnesota, don't give her too much credit...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yeah
but it is not that Republican though. If it was a R+20 then yeah but we came closer in much more Republican districts in 08, she did something right.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
R+7 is pretty sturdy
We only won several tougher districts...

AL-02 (R+16): Bobby Bright was an exceptionally strong candidate.
AL-05 (R+12): Although it has trended Republican recently, it's ancestrally Democratic.
AR-04 (R+7): Ancestrally Democratic + Mike Ross was an incumbent.
GA-02 (R+10): See AR-04.
ID-01 (R+18): Bill Sali. Enough said.
IN-08 (R+8): Incumbent. Brad Ellsworth was a strong candidate...before 2010, anyway.
KY-06 (R+9): Incumbent.
LA-03 (R+12): Incumbent.
MD-01 (R+13): Popular moderate incumbent, teabagged by huge douchebag, endorses Democratic challenger. So not normal circumstances.
MS-01 (R+14): Gotta admit, while Childers was strong and what's-his-face (the Repub) was kind of a jerk, this one was, in fact, a product of the wave. And I guess the slight incumbency helped.
MS-04 (R+20): Incumbent.
MO-04 (R+14): Incumbent.
ND-AL (R+10): Incumbent, and also (especially in 2008) a state which is much more Democratic at the state level than the presidential.
OH-18 (R+7): Incumbent.
OK-02 (R+14): Incumbent.
PA-10 (R+8): Incumbent.
SC-05 (R+7): Incumbent.
TN-04 (R+13): Incumbent.
TN-06 (R+13): Incumbent.
TX-17 (R+20): Incumbent.
UT-02 (R+15): Incumbent.
VA-09 (R+11): Incumbent, and also (in 2008) much more Republican at the presidential level than downticket.
WV-01 (R+9): Incumbent + ancestrally Democratic.
WV-03 (R+6): Same as WV-01.

Conclusion of this unnecessarily long post: Our only pickups in tougher districts were AL-02, ID-01, and MD-01, and I guess you can count the open seat hold in AL-05. However, MD-01 and AL-05 are ancestrally Democratic, and AL-02 featured an extremely strong Democrat while ID-01 had an extremely weak Republican. Also, Tinklenberg was hampered by the fact that all his money came in too late to spend.

Or maybe this is just my hatred for Michele Bachmann talking. :P
 

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
The
bad candidate did hurt but an R+7 in 08 was doable. There were also many others with higher PVI's that we came closer to winning than this one. With all the really crazy shit Bachman said she should have lost and I think most expected her to.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Mitch Daniels
As a Hoosier can you give some insight about Daniels' 08 campaign? I know that he had been unpopular leading up to the election and that many polls showed it being close for much of the year but what was it that made his campaign better than average? JLT was obviously incompetent but was that the only thing?

20, Ind, PA-14
[ Parent ]
Daniels
pissed a lot of people off at first but he ran a really good campaign and ran as a centrist and JLT, well, I'm not sure if what she did can be called a campaign or not. People forgave him and that was that. There was a lot of Obama-Daniels voters. Any other dem would have made the margin much narrower, not a win but closer. JLT was an absolute disaster. I even debated voting Daniels just because she frustrated me so much. Honestly had it not been a redistricting year I probably would have. JLT plain and simply does not have what it takes to be Governor. Her only qualification seemed to be "I grew up on a farm". So it was partially Daniels but the blowout margin was JLT's doing.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Kernan

Do you think they are some chance of Kernan return?

Would you like?

[ Parent ]
I
wouldn't mind it but he enjoys retirement too much. He didn't even really want to run in 04 and definitely would not have had O'Bannon not passed away.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Not going to happen
Joe Kernan seems like a really nice guy, who did a solid job taking over when Governor O'Bannon died in office.  But before that, he wasn't going to run for governor in 2004.  He's quite wealthy, and is a baseball fanatic -- he's currently (at least I think he still is) running a minor league baseball team.
[ Parent ]
Michael Bennet
I thought about listing him too. He definitely showed skill last fall.
[ Parent ]
Yeah.
I was scratching my head like everyone when Ritter chose him but he has turned out very good. I think he has Senate Majority/Minority Leader written all over him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I've said it before and I'll say it again:
Harry Reid's victory should be the battle cry for all Democrats running in tough races for a long, long time.*

He certainly had some good things going for him, like his state trending towards the Democrats because of favorable demographics and a possibly deranged candidate that ran a highly incompetent campaign. But he also ran in the worst cycle for his party in a long time in a state that, while trending blue, isn't that favorable, and faced the sort of hatred that some people can't fathom. There was, no joke, a guy on television that said there were only two people that he hated in this world: the man who ran over his dog and Harry Reid.

*On a somewhat related note, as I came home from work and was watching the massacre unfold on television, feeling as though my head was being kicked in, I actually smiled when Lawrence O'Donnell read John Kerry's hearty, joyous congratulations released just after the networks called Reid's victory. I don't think I've every liked John Kerry more.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
He wouldn't be THE strongest but
Vincent Sheheen was pretty impressive last year. He lost by only 4 points in the governor's race, in the most Republican year ever, to a uncontroversial, likable candidate (as far as uncontroversial goes) in South Carolina. I think he definitely has a future in the party.  
[ Parent ]
Agreed.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Thirded
I actually think that Obama should take a look at contesting South Carolina after what happened last year, but Sheheen definitely has a future. If a second AA-majority district isn't created, he might be able to run against Mulvaney next cycle.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
I'm glad South Carolina and Arizona
won in the PPP contest. It'll be interesting to see how Obama does in each state. I'm not sure what would constitute an acceptable range for the state to seem worthy of his time in 2012--perhaps anything less than ten points, and certainly anything less than five--but as long as he's not being blown out of the water in South Carolina, it should be considered. The same goes, but more so, for Arizona.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
It'll be interesting if Palin gets the nomination
PPP put her 4 points ahead in WV recently. Would Obama start seriously contesting states like WV where he probably won't win and can't get that much electoral votes but could help the local party, or would he be much more focused on his own campaign and try kill her big swing states.
[ Parent ]
He'll Be Helping His Own Campaign
That's a rhetorical question, right? And the Democratic Party in WV is in fine shape (at least in terms of holding most elected offices).

Btw, if you mean that new PPP poll of West Virginia, Palin was slightly behind Huckabee, not in front of him. Thought the internals in that one were interesting. Palin is very much the candidate of younger, moderate, and liberal Republicans, while Huckabee polled better with conservatives and older voters.

[ Parent ]
I meant in a more abstract way
If the GOP nominee was electable, let's say Pence or whoever, Obama would put all his money is swing states to get 270. With Palin, his reelection is not in doubt, so would he take this opportunity to help local party in deep red states (like WV,ND,SD, LA for a more extreme case) by spending money he wouldn't have otherwise for states that don't offer much is terms of electoral votes.


[ Parent ]
It depends.
If it looks like it's going to be a bad year, I imagine he'll try to focus mostly oh the same map as last time. If it's a mediocre to good or great year, I'd think he'd try to be creative and really expand the map. I'm not sure he'd so far as to set up shop in Wyoming or Idaho, but if it looks he's going to win Minnesota by 20, then why the hell not? Building up the party in traditionally red areas would be a fantastic legacy.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Tom Harkin in 2002
He had a not-bad challenger (Greg Ganske) in a Republican year and won handily.

Harkin defeated a Republican incumbent to win his first term in the Senate in 1984, at the same time Ronald Reagan got something like 59 percent in Iowa. Yes, the incumbent Harkin beat was weak (Roger Jepsen), but it was still an amazing achievement for Harkin. He won re-election narrowly in 1990 and 1996. His convincing win in 2002 is the reason he had only token opposition in 2008.

[ Parent ]
Not that a big difference in Harkin's 2002, '96, and '90 performances......
All 3 times, he beat a sitting Congressman.

He beat Tauke 54-46 in '90, Lightfoot a more narrow 52-47 in '96, and then beat Ganske 54-44.

I don't think the '02 performance by itself was what scared off Republicans in '08.  I think it was the long string of failures by top recruits against a guy who they always thought they had a 50-50 shot at beating.  Indeed, my recollection of '96, which admittedly could be off on this, is that the final result was actually a little closer than people were expecting heading into October.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What's the record for the quickest collapse of a large House majority?
Democrats' 2006 House majority only lasted four short years.  The only time Republicans quickly lost a big majority was 1948 after winning it in 1946.  

I am still shocked at how quickly Democrats lost the House majority.  Democrats and the Obama administration really should have planned from day one how they were going to protect the majority.  

The way to protect the majority
is not to do anything controversial.

But that wasn't an option. There was no logistical way to protect the majority with the way the districts were drawn.  

[ Parent ]
not shocked at all
The Dems had the misfortune of presiding over the worst economy since the 1930s. When the economy is bad, voters take it out on the party in power regardless of whose fault it was. They were going to lose the House regardless of what they did.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
I dont believe that for a second
In 1982, with unemployment even higher than in 2010, Republicans lost just 26 House seats, picked up a Senate seat, and lost minimal ground in state legislatures.

In 1978, with inflation spiraling out of control and unemployment still relatively high(4% unemployment was considered full employment before the 1980's), Democrats only lost a minimal amount of seats from a two thirds majority.

If Democrats had played their cards right, they could have held losses to around 15 in the House and a couple in the Senate.  Obama just had to be more partisan in attacking Republicans the way FDR and Truman would have.    

[ Parent ]
MORE Partisan?
whose votes would that have won?  
[ Parent ]
It would have helped show independents who was good and who was bad
And would have also turned out more Democratic voters.

This triangulation crap is a loser every time.  

[ Parent ]
That "triangulation"
allowed for the passage of DADT repeal, the START treaty, the 9/11 first responders' bill, and two votes on the DREAM Act to the ire of McFlipFlop and Kyl.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
But it sure doesnt win elections
That strategy is partially responsible for why Democrats didnt get the House back in 1996.  
[ Parent ]
That's partly to do with
the large retirements in '96.  Besides, Obama will not triangulate to the level that Clinton did.  He has a Democratic Senate and that's a BIG leg up.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
No, 28 Dem retirements
were responsible for why the Democrats didn't get the House back in 1996.  
[ Parent ]
who believes this crap?
Do you even KNOW independent voters? The idea that a more partisan Democratic party would make them see "who was good and who was bad" is ridiculous

They HATE partisanship. They wouldn't see the Democrats are "good," they would see them as "uncompromising" which is exactly why Alan Grayson got his ass kicked, Raul Grijalva almost lost his seat and my Congressman, Anthony Weiner, struggled to reach 60% in a district where he barely was ever opposed.

[ Parent ]
and btw
Truman...being the last President to suffer a shellacking of this size?  
[ Parent ]
Truman won back the House and Senate in 1948
and kept losses in 1950 much lower than they could have been by running hard against Republicans and repeatedly casting them as servents for the rich.
[ Parent ]
In 1948
after attacking a REPUBLICAN CONGRESS.

What happened in 1946? Not partisan enough?  

[ Parent ]
He was still finding his sea legs in 1946
FDR had just died a year earlier and Truman just seemed out of place to many.  
[ Parent ]
FDR died only 2 1/2 months into his term
Truman served almost an entire two years of a normal term. Do those sea legs turn up in February or March of a President's first term?

[ Parent ]
He still seemed not up to the job
Im just saying that it took Truman awhile to find what works for him.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not taking a position in this argument,
but yeah, actually Truman was seen by many liberals as far too tepid and moderate until he vetoed Taft-Hartley and integrated the army. Obviously there were other things at play in that election too, but winning them back made his 1948 win possible.
[ Parent ]
In '82
The GOP lost a lot of ground in state legislatures and the Dem gains in the House foiled the conservative coalition that got Reagan a lot of what he wanted in the first half of his first term.

And before '78, they had a 3/5ths majority, not 2/3rds.  Nobody's had that since '65.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Democrats had two thirds in the House
They had 292 seats after the 1976 elecction.  

In 1982, Republicans lost about 200 state legislative seats, while Democrats lost almost 700 in 2010.  

[ Parent ]
It was 650
and if you exclude NH, it's closer to 500.

And I assumed you were talking about the Senate.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
500 is still way more than it should have been
Democrats only gained about 400 in 2006 and 2008 put together.  History suggests it should have been more like 350 or 400.  
[ Parent ]
And we can win back half of that 650 in 2012.
That will put us back up in MN, both chambers of the OR and CO leg., one or both chambers in WI, put us within striking distance in NH and NC, etc.  There's a lot of room to grow and 2012 will be a presidential year.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
There is also a lot of room to grow in IA, OH, MI, and PA
Democrats were basically cut down to their urban base in those states.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, those too.
In 2012, there will be a turnabout.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
First off
we all know the districts were drawn to sustain a Republican majority and that was true in most states as well.

On top of that, 2010 saw the biggest turnout among conservatives in decades with independents going unprecedentedly Republican.

Democratic turnout was where it was in 2006, notably high for a midterm.

It was the result of unprecedented conservative turnout, there was nothing that could be done.  

[ Parent ]
In 2012
it will be the other way.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
In 1982...
... the Republicans, post-election, had just 166 House seats and won just 43% of the House popular vote. The reason their losses were "just 28" was because they were already a clear minority in the House and they only had so far they could fall.

Granted, they did better on the Senate side, where they managed to avoid having any net losses. But still, Democrats already held most of the seats up that year, making pickup possibilities fairly limited.  

[ Parent ]
What CD...
Portions of this question have already been asked, but I think this is a new twist.

What CD would you most like to live in, taking into account both your Rep, Senators, Governor, AND also the environment in the CD (weather, lifestyle, activities, etc.)?

Well if you're asking about representatives
Mine- NY-09

but really maybe NY-5, but only because I love the Queens neighborhood of Whitestone.  

[ Parent ]
OR-03
The real answer is Vancouver Quadra riding in British Columbia, but if I'm forced to stick with the US (and if I'm explicitly asked to take elected officials into account), Portland seems like a decent subsitute.

From what I know of them on the issues, I like Wyden, Merkley, and especially Blumenauer. (Mass transit is my single biggest pet issue.) And even beyond the politics, in terms of lifestyle and activities, the "green" part of my self-identity longs to be in the Pacific Northwest.  

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
Agreed...
100 percent.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
It snows more in John Turner's old riding
and while I like Gordon Campbell, something smells about the new GST thing.

I do enjoy living on OR-03, though I think WA-07 (central Seattle) and CA-09 (Berkeley/Oakland) are comparable in many ways.

My dream would be HI-02, if I ever could afford it (and I don't want to live in HOVE).

[ Parent ]
Only problem with Vancouver Quadra
I was just up there for the New Year's holiday, and the real estate values in metro Vancouver seemed to be somewhere north of criminally insane. The beer prices also seemed to be bonkers; $42 for a 24 of Molson Canadian? No thanks, I'll go shop in Washington State instead where it's half of that.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, it's pricey
but my real-estate-values expectations are set to DC-area standards, so it doesn't bother me that much. A couple years back when I visited the school I'm hoping to attend eventually for my masters, some of the students I met tried to warn me about the rents in Vancouver. In turn, I shocked them by telling them about my $950/month after-county-subsidy rent for my one-bedroom apartment in Arlington.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
I love this question
And my answer is SC-01. Not really a DeMint fan, but I like Graham, Haley, and Scott well enough and I love the district itself. Charleston is an awesome, historic city and Myrtle Beach is a good summer getaway spot. The only problem might be the humidity in July and August.

Most of the areas represented by 4 Republicans are places I wouldn't want to live (too hot, too rural, or too middle of nowhere.) I like NH-01, but I'd have Lynch and Shaheen and a fairly undesirable Republican in Frank Guinta.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I gather GA-01 is a pretty cool R area too
Jack Kingston's district. Charleston does have that old French architecture thing going for it.

Though you'd have to cross over into GA-12 to get into much of Savannah. But if they do go after Barrow in redistricting, Kingston would have to take a bit more of Savannah.

[ Parent ]
Yes.
Agreed. SC1 also
Maloney Nadler NY
Pelosi Eshoo Woolsey CA
[ Parent ]
Tough one.
Most of the Bay Area districts, I guess. CA-27, 29, or 32 could be nice as well. Or maybe CA-53.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
CA-53 is beautiful
Spent a couple of months there.  Walked from the UCSD campus to downtown La Jolla along the shore...amazing vistas.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
CA-23
Santa Barbara is just stunning!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Forgot CA-30
contains another grad school option, as does CA-33, although I've heard some liberals are discontented with Karen Bass (why is that, exactly)?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Too close to Arnold was what I heard.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
That
and she comes from Sacramento. I mean passing a budget here during Schwarzenegger's last two years here was a joke with both Democrats and Republicans grandstanding while trying to find 2/3rds of the legislature to agree what to axe and what not to.

But Fabian Nunez was way closer to Schwarzenegger than Bass could ever be, witnessed by the fact Schwarzenegger did an 11th hour commutation of Nunez's son's prison sentence, reducing it from 16 years to 6. You can read the details into that, lets just say Schwarzenegger really ticked off a lot of people including me with that commutation.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
idk
i loved PA-07 until this year. Now i have no idea.

Probably one of the Hawaii ones. that would be awesome.

18, Dem, PA-7

[ Parent ]
oh, I forgot about Hawaii
I'm actually considering UHM for grad school, but I think that's in HI-01 and I'm not sure I want Colleen Hanabusa as my rep since I've heard she opposes gay marriage.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I think she is Pro-Marriage Equality.
I could be wrong though.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Rep. Hanabusa supports gay marriage...
As far as I can tell. She's credited by numerous progressive blogs as supporting marriage equality.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
ok, no idea where I got the idea she opposed it.
add HI-01/02 I suppose.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Grad School
Well how does the state sen, state rep, county council member, dean of grad school. professors, etc. etc. come down on gay marriage. Come on, you know this is so important when picking out a grad school. ROTFL
[ Parent ]
For Real
And who would think Hanabusa opposed gay marriage when even the rep Djou was for equality... duh
[ Parent ]
Huh?


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Djou
Received an award from Log Cabin R's in the 111th, might have not signed on to marriage but was for overturning DADT. Hanabusa was one of HRC PAC top candidates. A dem in Hawaii being anti marriage, this is like a TX rep being for gun control.
[ Parent ]
All I can say is Representative Hanabusa won't stand in our way.
Charles Djou actively did and would have.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Yup
one of the planks of the Republican party is to treat the LGBT community as a threat to the very existence of American society. Just look at all of the big name conservative groups backing out of CPAC because GOProud is one of the sponsors and the backlash Richard Burr received from North Carolina Republicans when he voted to repeal DADT after it was clear it would pass.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
No Doubt...
That's for sure...
[ Parent ]
Sorry, most people don't really consider that pro-equality
especially since Djou was actually trying to win re-election and basically had to throw a bone to the Dem voters either way.

Oh, and about Hawaii Dems not being anti-marriage...the civil unions bill passed the Senate 19-6. Since there is only one Republican in the Senate this means that five Dems voted against civil unions. Not even full marriage, just civil unions. If 1/5 of the Dem conference votes against civil unions, how many will vote against marriage?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Well, most of the people in Hawaii are of Asian origin
And you surely know better then i am, that not all Asian cultures look favorably on single-sex sexual relations))
[ Parent ]
There was a lot of monkey business
a few years ago from Hanabusa's end when people were trying to pass a civil unions law in Hawaii. I'm having trouble finding a news story to confirm this, but I believe a civil unions bill deadlocked in committee and Hanabusa as State Senate president could have pulled it out and placed it onto the Senate floor for a full vote (where it was expected to pass), but she opted not to.

So I think that she's one of the far too common Democratic politicians who says that she supports gay rights but refuses to use on iota of political capital to achieve them.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
That may have happened, but I believe she made sure
in the next session that it made through.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I remember
getting a solicitation from Human Rights Campaign for their PAC and Hanabusa was a highlighted candidate. I can look it up, have always sent money their way. Anyhow Hawaii is one of the most pro GL rights states- Abercrombia i know is solid as are Inouye and Akaka, just thought the post from the RI kid was pretty dense.
[ Parent ]
e
Abercrombie
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Hawaii is so pro-gay rights
that in 1998, almost 70% of Hawaiians voted to allow the state legislature to ban gay marriage. Then again, Charles Djou is pro-gay by your standards, so.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
ROTFL
When you have property there then talk. Have had dinner with Abercrombie. Shan Tsutsui's house in last October. Pathetic.
[ Parent ]
But that was back in 1998.
That was before any state had legalized gay marraige. It might not have fliped entirely but it certinaly is better now and the trend is favorable.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Sure
I'm sure it's better now, but to act as if Hawaii supporting gay rights is the most obvious thing on the entire planet is certainly not supported by hard and fast facts, not yet anyway. Once Hawaii starts actually getting gay rights, then I'll listen to the argument that Hawaii is one of the most pro-gay states.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
High school/ college kid
Thinks he knows it all, prob doesnt even know where Hawaii is on the map, but he can research it.  
[ Parent ]
Dude, be nice
I don't want to get involved in the gay rights debate, but I see you're new here so I want to let you know that commenters here are nice to each other. And sapelcovits is actually a very smart user, so your insults are rather out of place.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I appreciate it
but somehow I sense that he won't be around for very long.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Ha...
Your right, on a flight to SD, will see Susan Davis tomorrow. Sparring with some kid is below my pay grade, but entertainment for me and others I suppose for a flight.  
[ Parent ]
Name-dropping isn't good enough to excuse your lack of manners
Seriously, if you can't be civil, don't post here. Feel free to disagree, but jabbing people over their age - trust me, there are 17-year-olds here, and foreign nationals for that matter, who have far more insight into politics than most 40-somethings - and bragging about how you hang out with governors and congresswomen is not impressive.

That being said, I'm coincidentally also headed to San Diego tomorrow.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Surfs Up.
Been fun guys. Look I mean no offense, the kids a know it all though, knows it all but really knows nothing. That was my point. As for me, see ya next flight.  
[ Parent ]
Some offense taken, m'afraid
You can't just waltz in here and rip people for bringing up past votes and referendums and disagreeing with you. sapelcovits earned his stripes long ago; you haven't earned anything just by virtue of claiming to have had dinner with Gov. Abercrombie.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Yeah I had brunch with President Barack Obama.
You don't see me insulting the intelligence of others.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Just like
California voting something like 60-40 to ban SSM in 2000, then only 52-48 in 2008. I think there is a similar trend in Hawaii, and if voters got the chance again, they might vote for it by a much smaller margin if not narrowly against it.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Hawaii's starting from a higher threshold.
FWIW, Nate Silver predicted Hawaii would have voted in favor last year, although he also thought Maine would vote for equality and it didn't. Nevertheless, look at all the states listed above Hawaii...including Nevada, Oregon, and Alaska (!!!!!!!!!)

Perhaps a better example is this post by Andrew Gelman. Even here, Hawaii is still #12, below Maine (which voted 53-47 to ban gay marriage) and Washington (which could barely pass even expanded rights for domestic partnerships).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
I'm not that surprised about Alaska.
They don't exactly strike me as a bastion of social conservatism. They're likely Republican just because they want the feds to leave their money and guns alone. (Though they love themselves some pork.)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
and their oil rigs
All the oil- and coal-dependent states (LA, KY, WV) have moved right as environmental issues have become bigger.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Human Rights Campaign
takes tons of money from gays to politely ask Democrats to do almost nothing for gay rights, to paraphrase Wonkette, so I don't know that such an endorsement settles the debate.

And trying to start a flame war with another user doesn't make you look like the high-powered political insider that you're trying to present yourself to be, but instead someone unwelcome here.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
Well, the original post just asked for rep, governor, and senators
But that's ok! Even if I hadn't mentioned that, you still look like a huge douchebag ^_^

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Your a piece of work kid...
Grad school can be tough, tougher then looking up all those issue positions for the elected officials of each. My grad school rep was Capuano, have you researched him yet. Get a life kid.
[ Parent ]
Good riddance!
SA, sorry you got slammed by this jerk. Of course, it doesn't really mean anything to get gratuitously insulted by some user on the internet, but it's unpleasant and totally undeserved.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
It's ok
after a few posts I was like, ok, just a troll, ignore and go on with my life. But I very much appreciated the posts on other SSPers' parts. The respectful environment is a huge part of what makes this site enjoyable.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
We all are with you)))

[ Parent ]
Thank you :)


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It's also a marvelous sense of community
between people of different stripes and beliefs who respect -- and defend each other.

I think that p**k lasted maybe 2 hours here, if I'm reading the time stamps correctly.

[ Parent ]
I vote
Boulder, CO (2nd CD) Eugene, OR (3rd CD) or Milford, DE.

Unfortunately my Congresswoman in Virginia Foxx.  Feel free to tell me how sorry you feel for me.  

[ Parent ]
Eugene is OR-04.
Although DeFazio doesn't seem that different from Blumenauer, lol.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Eugene is OR-04
Boulder and Eugene make sense together -- what's up with Milford, Delaware?

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
I meant (OR-04)
I would rather live in southern Delaware but I would be represented by Carney, Coons, Carper, and Markell.  I couldn't complain about that.  
[ Parent ]
Also
I'm an east coast person so I wanted an option there, but I didn't want to go to far north and I didn't want a big city.
[ Parent ]
CA-23, with Rep. Capps, Sens. Feinstein and Boxer, Gov. Brown
and coastline and mild weather all year round and lots of things to do in and around Santa Barbara!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
VT-AL

[ Parent ]
Yup
Easy, no contest.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Wow
even taking weather into account?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
weather...
...isn't everything.
[ Parent ]
I know it's not
but the weather in Vermont is absolutely miserable. Having grown up in RI and going to school in Chicago, the thought of escaping the cold is extremely exciting to me, and I know a lot of my friends would agree. Just IMHO.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
i was raised...
...in conn. been in south fla since 1991 and dream of going back but can't because of work and family. before i moved i did vote for lowell weicker over  joe lieberman. looking back it was one of my best votes!
[ Parent ]
Ideal weather for me..
Don't forget - i am Russian-born. We like snow, forests, lakes (even icy ones). Key West is an interesting place to visit somrtimes, but i would prefer Vermont all other time)))
[ Parent ]
Well, I know Russia is cold
and I imagine you're used to the cold more than Floridians, but I never would have guessed that means you like the cold. As I mentioned above, I've spent my life in cold places, and all it does is make me want to flee for CA or HI quicker.

The politics part is also surprising in your case. You say you're a centrist, so would you really be happy in very very very very liberal Vermont?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Yes
But i would be Republican there))) Something along Aiken-Stafford-Jeffords line, or like present state Senator Dianne Snelling, who is very successfull in politics despite running in very liberal Chittenden county (i think - she could be successful statewide as well, say, for Senate in 2016)

But as a reserve i have almost all New England)). Both Maine districts, NH-02, CT-02 or 05, Ma-06 and some other))))

[ Parent ]
Ok, yeah, VT has 2 strikes
Weather and no Apple Store in state. They win on culture and politics though. I'm in Dallas right now and it's too cold for me at the moment, and it's 58. BRING BACK THE 90s!!!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
No
We had mad summer in Moscow last year with temperature over 100 in some days. How did we lounged for winter and snow))))) Now it's good 25)))
[ Parent ]
If Vermont gets single payer healthcare
I'll put up with the snow.  
[ Parent ]
OR-3 or OR-5
assuming I could just telecommute to the job I have now. Western OR is a mecca for runners, and Ron Wyden would be my senator.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
My Answer
Currently I live in the Pennsylvania 14th; the worst part of it actually isn't that Pat Toomey's now my second senator, it's our boy idiot mayor (who thinks imposing a 1% tuition tax on students was a good policy idea), the city public works department (that doesn't plow the streets when it snows), and the Port Authority (which has high costs, bad service, and even dumber ideas like the North Shore Connecter).

I'll throw out one of three places: The Colorado 1st (Denver Center), the Minnesota 5th (Minneapolis), or the Virginia 8th (Arlington/Alexandria). California would be in the running, but their budgeting over the past decade has been.....very poor, and that's being generous.

[ Parent ]
KY-3.
I've lived there before and love it. It's a big city but has a small town feel in parts. I would not have to leave my family and friends and it would be closer to work. I would have a great Congressman, Governor and Mayor. I won't talk about the Senate.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
WA-7
I like Seattle a lot and used to live there.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Is it ok if I give three options?
* For a district/state where I can always have great representatives and a governor who's either a good Democrat or a moderate-ish Republican: VT-AL. The climate's no problem... I'm living in North Dakota right now.
* For a district where I can maximize my voting power by voting in the most swing elections: OH-15. This may change after redistricting, but the point is that Columbus would be a fun city to live in, and it's currently (and may stay) in a swing district, and Ohio will be having close statewide elections for a long time
* For a mix of the two: WI-2. I've already lived here, so it may be cheating. Madison will almost always have a strong Democratic representative to represent me, while the statewide elections are likely to be closer. Now, after 2010 Wisconsin could be having some bad days ahead (both economically and politically, with an ass governor who's determined to block any and all public transportation), this normally would dissuade me. Madison is such an amazing city that it's worth it to live in WI-2 despite all of this. (WI-4 in Milwaukee would be good too, but I like the perfect size of Madison more.)
[ Parent ]
CA-24
Which is my actual district, I like the area. I don't particularly care for being represented by Elton Gallegly, but hopefully redistricting will bring about some change on that front.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
Are you in the SB or Ventura portion?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Ventura portion


24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
CA-30
After MN, I want sunny beaches and that's either FL or CA.  Easy choice when it comes to representation statewide.  And then CA-30 so I can have a liberal Representative and also some gay bars to go to in West Hollywood.
[ Parent ]
I choose CA over FL
because of better statewide politics and more moderate weather. Florida gets VERY muggy...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
And now I'm looking at grad schools
and I'm dreaming big and looking at the all top schools.  They are all in cold weather climate, if I'm getting to be nitty-gritty about and finding the little things to sway decisions, warmer climate will win out.

Your comment above just made UCLA a top choice for me if I could ever get in.  Although, I should probably find a more college-town oriented place so I recluse myself enough to read the endless amounts of books.

[ Parent ]
be an East Asian Studies major
because that means that lots of the top programs will be in sunny Hawaii and California :P

For me, my "top 5" (good weather and good programs), in no particular order, would be UHM, Berkeley, Stanford, UCLA, and USC. But as I said, those are good programs for what I want to do, so of course getting in is far from a done deal, especially with the UCs being affected by the CA budget issue.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
If I picked a program with a co-area of study
it'd be African-American studies.  And since I'd never go to a Southern area for study (sorry Southern states, be more inviting to the LGBT community), California it'd be.  So many things to analyze with Prop 8 and minority communities.

I already have the overall framing for that thesis written in my head.

[ Parent ]
If you don't mind me asking,
what schools are you looking at and in for what field of study?

I can see climate being a big factor, although for me, I'd care more about transportion ease than anything else.

I also think it's important to draw a distinction between "cold" and "so goddamn cold there are no words." The former would probably be most schools in the Northeast, which is fine for most people, including someone from Minnesota like you. But then there's a school like SUNY Plattsburgh, where it supposedly gets so cold and snows so much that they just shut things down and don't let people out of the dorms. Who the hell would want that?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Chicago is probably the latter
my freshman year there was a cold snap and the wind chill was -40 for a few days. We were told that if we didn't bundle up properly, we could get frostbite in 10 minutes. Of course, Chicago being Chicago, classes weren't canceled.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Do you mean the University of Chicago?
I remember reading a story about how they tried to shut down the library on Saturday nights, or maybe it was just about reducing the hours in some other way, and the students went nuts.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yeah, U of C
when is the article from? I don't even remember that happening...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
PhD in Political Science
I tried Law School and found it so fucking boring!  Do not let me bring a laptop to class because I will spend my entire reading politics if the class isn't political-oriented.  And I have always been more of a scientist type and now I want to get into grad school as fast as possible so I have time to study everything I need to.
[ Parent ]
I've actually
thought about trying to go to the PhD route. Years ago, I thought about it for history, but recently, it was for political science. But assuming there isn't some sort of drastic change in the coming years, what I want to do--put the screws to the financial industry--is most likely possible if I become a lawyer, or so I think.

How many semesters did you last in law school?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Not even one
It was two months.  I got the worst score out of my first mid-term out of an 80-person class with a score of 4/16.  Why, because the law school teaching method means some profs mark down on a piece of paper who've they called on.  Yes, please, call on me right away so I can ignore you for the next month while I read PoliticalWire.
[ Parent ]
I'm actually
worried that, contrary to my dreams, I'll be one of the guys that just doesn't do well. But in order to cancel that out, I will try to remind myself that I wasted my undergraduate years and the snob in me is disgusted because of it.

Anyway, if it wasn't for you, it wasn't for you. Better to figure that our early before you incur a lot of debt.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Senator Michelle Obama?
Could she go the route of Hillary Clinton.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
2016 she could take on
Mark Kirk.  

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
Or the President could run
for his old seat in 2016  

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
Why would someone who suffered the stress of presidency want to do that
I doubt even Michelle after 8 years of this would want to wade back into politics. You would have to have Genghis-Khan like ambition to do that ( which is why Hillary never ceases to amaze me).  
[ Parent ]
Hillary does it, I think
because she sees the end goal of first woman President.  I believe she's going through the leg work and the stress because she knows this country needs to mark down that accomplishment, or at the least start working towards it.
[ Parent ]
You have to think that
if Obama is reelected he will be 55 when he leaves office. I have to ask what will he do with the rest of his life.
It is not unreasonable to think he will live another 50 years. He does not seem like a man who could stay out of politics. Other presidents had to becuase of age.  

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
I
think he could be a really good SoS. He's got a lot of respect around the world. It was kind of funny, I always thought Clinton would appoint Obama as SoS in her administration. I didn't really think Obama would appoint Clinton though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Jimmy Carter provides an excellent model
He was 56 when he left the Presidency, and is probably the best ex-President ev-ah!

I don't see Obama doing a John Quincy Adams.

[ Parent ]
Yes but
Jimmy Carter was rejected badly at the voting booth and was forced into retirement  

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
Not relevant to the question at hand
I suggest that Jimmy Carter was and has been a more effective former President than all of the others currently alive -- combined.
[ Parent ]
I believe that it is relevant
we are talking about political involvement by a former President. Jimmy Carter was rejected by voters. That was the comment I am making  

TX-13,22,Dem
[ Parent ]
In what way?
I don't see the connection.
[ Parent ]
Obama could be a Supreme Court justice
a la Taft.  I'd love for him to take over Clarence Thomas' seat.
[ Parent ]
I've thought about that too, but it'd be hard as hell to manuver
a democrat very friendly to obama would have to win in 2016, obama would have to be very popular and the senate would have to be at or damn close to 60.  even if he was moderately popular, there would probably be enough senators angry at obama for being a (gasp) democratic president that they stall this until the end of time. while the opposition to SCOTUS nominees is usually pretty tepid,  because few people know who they are, but if it was the freaking former president, that  would be another case altogether,

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
meh...
I don't think its that far fetched. All it takes is 50+1 and that one can be the VP. I'm sure repubs would put up a fight but assuming they don't have a supermajority I think Obama could get through. All you need is five or six R votes and that is not impossible.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
can't they fillibuster?
further, considering the brew-haha over obama back in 2010, unless obama's in 2017 is as popular as clinton was in 2001, or reagan in 1989, I just don't see any republicans crossing over to help the man who was their adversary for the last 8 years.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
No.
For SCOTUS all you need is 50+1. Sure they'll be pissy about it but there are always some sane Republicans who go by the- in my view the right- philosophy that the President should get whoever they want as long as they are qualified. The elections have consequences view. Obama would not be what you would describe as an easy confirmation but I think he would get confirmed unless Republicans had or were very close to a veto proof majority. He is very qualified. All this said I do not think Obama wants the job.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
United Nations Secretary-General
I think he's a near lock for that job after he leaves office, if he's even remotely interested.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
That would revive the United Nations like never before.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
wow, that truly is the perfect job for him
Although the Secretary-General position is rotated between continents (or regions?) so it could be awhile before it's our turn.
[ Parent ]
Impossible
The UN's membership would never stand for it. Too much of it sees the organization as one of the few international actors not basically run by the US. I can't imagine them ever accepting an American, much less a US president, as Secretary-General. Plus, why would China not veto him? And why would he want to spend 5+ years running an arguably ineffectual bureaucracy? It's not like he's putting much attention toward it during his presidency.
[ Parent ]
Obama is a very special case
It certainly depends on his job and actions as President, but he won the Nobel Peace Prize for a reason.  And him being a black leader of the US versus another white straight male is also another giant factor.  As a person of color, he could be much better viewed as a UN leader of US citizenry for the rest of the world.

And The Audacity to Win paints a picture of Obama running for President because he felt the calling and not because of personal ambition.  If the world wants him to lead, he will do it.

[ Parent ]
Exactly right on both counts, I think
And if the next president is, say, Jon Huntsman, Jr., the PRC will have very little reason to inflame relations with the U.S. by opposing President Obama for secretary-general.

I do think it's an ideal job for him, and he would bring a lot of charisma and star power to a position that has become famous for its lack of efficacy.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I don't think she would do that
She doesn't seem to be the type that has any political aspirations. With Hillary, you could tell early on that she would be a force.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
I think Michelle Obama took a back seat to her
husbands ambitions. She was on a successful career track herself. Not that I think she necessarily wants to engage in a political career, but it would be an interesting path.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
After reading the Audacity to Win
the picture they paint of Michelle is that she is a bit apprehensive of politics and putting herself, and family, out there.  She's doing her duty as First Lady, which maybe she views more as a contract with the country versus the things she'd personally rather spend her metaphorical 40-hours a week on.

But she'd trounce Kirk, I would guess.  Would be really interesting for Michelle to run for Senate in 2016 and then Hillary run for President that year as well.

[ Parent ]
Nah
Dont think she is interested... Could be wrong...
[ Parent ]
Surprised
This kind of surprised me.  After giving hints over the last few months that she was done in elective politics, and after the general concensus among Michigan politicos that she didn't have the stomach for another run at anything, Republican Terri Lynn Land has announced she may be interested in challenging Senator Debbie Stabenow in 2012 after getting what she sees as promising poll numbers:

Grand Rapids- Former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land says she is considering challenging U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow in the 2012 election and is encouraged by a recent poll showing her within a few points of the Democrat.

Land, who spoke to The Detroit News while attending the Michigan Republican Party convention at DeVos Place in Grand Rapids, said she plans to meet next week with another possible candidate, former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, before making a decision.

...

The poll conducted Jan. 9-11 showed Land trailing Stabenow 46 percent to 41 in a heads-up contest. Land said that result and other findings in the poll show Stabenow is vulnerable, especially since Stabenow has the power of incumbency and Land had not announced an intent to run.

Land said she senses a strong mood for change among voters and said that was evident at Friday night convention caucuses where a number of veteran GOP district chairs and members of the party executive were voted out.

Democrats have said both Wilson Research and Sterling work with Republican candidates and reject the idea Stabenow is vulnerable.

The poll showed Stabenow leading Hoekstra 47 percent to 41 percent.

Land is a very legitimate candidate.  I believe she's got more votes than the last governor during each of her two elections.  Hoekstra is the only other legitimate candidate.  The problem for both of them is that they are from West Michigan, which has not been able (with the major exception of Land) to be successful at the state-wide level.

The good thing for Land is that despite being very much an insider in the West Michigan Republican establishment, publically, she is very moderate in her style and the vocabulary she chooses.  She's just the type of Republican that could give Stabenow a serious scare.

Provided she could win the nomination
Sounds like she and Hoekstra are huddling before either one of them announces. Since their geographic bases overlap so much, they might not want to run against one another in a crowded primary.

Of course, proud moderate and now-Gov. Rick Snyder emerged from the snarling ball of claws and cat fur that was the Republican gubernatorial primary last year, so Land can find some encouragement there.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Right.
You were right on the first one.  I feel pretty certain that she wouldn't run if Hoekstra jumped in first.  I can't say with the same 100% assuredness the same for him, though, it's also be pretty likely he wouldn't jump in if she got there first.  They both know better than that, because, yeah, their bases just about completely overlap.  The only difference is that his base is closer to the lake and more homogenous (i.e. the "Dutch Mafia"), and her's is in Grand Rapids proper and and immediate suburbs (also pretty heavily Dutch, but more diverse than Hoekstra's base).

BTW, speaking of Rick Snyder...

"I had six years in management, and I think I swore twice in six years. That's just not who I am."
-- Gov. Rick Snyder, comparing himself to his friend and colleague Republican Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who has a reputation of being loud and brash. He wouldn't reveal the situations that made him swear, but admitted: "There were consequences."

Just goes to show that you don't have to be a bullying douchebag to be a good leader.

[ Parent ]
MI GOP Primary
I've poked around among my contacts in Michigan and although none of them have any direct contact with Hoekstra or Land they are almost uniform in their opinion that a primary between the two is almost impossible. Land has no stomach for a competitive primary and would defer to Hoekstra, Hoekstra however is not viewed as a likely candidate, he quit congress to be Governor, not to come back to DC 2 years later.

Also pretty solid majority don't think you'll see any real Tea Party candidates pop up, the establishment & grassroots in Michigan is already a pretty conservative bunch and not likely to break with the tea party type activists as long as the nominee isn't someone like Upton.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
NH-Pres: Giuliani to keynote key New Hampshire Republican event
Senate ratings from Rothenberg
Pure Tossup: Nelson (D-NE)

Tossup/Tilt Dem: McCaskill (D-MO), Tester (D-MT), Webb (D-VA)

Lean Dem: Nelson (D-FL), Brown (D-OH), Manchin (D-WV)

Dem Favored: Stabenow (D-MI), Casey (D-PA), Cantwell (D-WA)

Currently Safe Dem: Feinstein (D-CA), OPEN (CT), Carper (D-DE), Akaka (D-HI), Cardin (D-MD), Klobuchar (D-MN), Menendez (D-NJ), Bingaman (D-NM), Gillibrand (D-NY), Whitehouse (D-RI), Sanders (I-VT), Kohl (D-WI)

Tossup/Tilt GOP: Brown (R-MA)

Lean GOP: Ensign (R-NV)

GOP Favored: Snowe (R-ME), OPEN (ND)

Currently Safe GOP: Kyl (R-AZ), Lugar (R-IN), Wicker (R-MS), Corker (R-TN), OPEN (TX), Hatch (R-UT), Barrasso (R-WY)

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

I think Ben Nelson is already somewhere in the Republican column though I wouldn't count him out completely. I think Sherrod Brown is in the same boat as McCaskill, Tester and Webb. I think both Menendez and particularly Stabenow are more vulnerable than this.

I think the NV And AZ number will change
Both had less than stellar 2006 numbers against nobody's, an if we throw in someone like Terry Goddard in AZ, and  Shelley Berkley in NV, I could see us easily winning those two seats.

MA as a tossup/lean GOP sickens me to the core, I will proclaim right now, there is NO WAY this is not a tossup/lean dem.  There are too many things running against Brown in MA for it to have him even slightly favored.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
For now I think I agree with that one
Can't discount the polling in MA. Actually, I'd probably put NV in the same bracket. Heller isn't unbeatable. AZ depends on a retirement I think. Doubtful Terry Goddard will get it. Phil Gordon might be interesting since I believe he is term-limited as Phoenix mayor at the end of this year. I watched a web video of him explaining his opposition to SB 1070 and was quite impressed. I do understand he is quite conservative on other issues but if he could be talked into the race I think it would be worth it.
[ Parent ]
I think Arizona's a really stretch, though Berkeley would beat Ensign
As for Scott Brown, I agree that his hopes reek a little of William Weld's in '96, but I think his favorables, at least for now, are too high for him to lose. In a general election campaign, with a Democrat who isn't named Martha Coakley, this could well change, but I'd bet my $$$ on Brown for now. I think he'll garner 15-20% of Democrats and score about 2 to 1 with Independents. This should give him about a 5 point advantage.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Agreed
the problem is Scott Brown is a good campaigner and very charismatic. While most of the Democratic names trudged up so far scream retread, dinosaur and boring. Capuano is probably the best out of their congressional delegation but Democrats should perhaps look somewhere else. You need a stellar candidate to beat Scott Brown if 2012 which is looking likely to be an election based on candidates instead of how you feel towards a specific party.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I know it's Massachusetts...
so I might be off-base here, but Capuano is among the most liberal members of the house and he lost the only competitive campaign he ever ran to Martha Coakley.

It seems to me that the further left Brown's opponent is, the easier it will be for Brown to claim the middle ground. And that's EXACTLY the image that Brown needs to maintain to be re-elected. Having Capuano as a foil will make Brown seem like a paragon of moderation and bipartisanship, which is his ticket to a full term.

Which leads me to think that (were he able to survive a primary, which is dubious) somebody like Rep. Lynch might actually be preferable, at least from an ideological standpoint. Charisma is another story... and probably the more difficult problem given the slate of candidates on the Dem side.

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
What's Brown going to say?
Capuano is the most liberal congressmen evah, blah blah blah. Brown is not going to win by attacking his opponent as too liberal, He didn't do that with Coakley at all. He would try to frame his opponent as part of the "machine" which Capuano isn't. I sincerely hope Brown runs the standard GOP playbook, "my opponent is a liberal" bs. That's probably the only surefire way Brown could lose.
There aren't many controversial votes Brown could use against Capuano, while there are many votes Brown took the last congress that could be used against him. One thing that Brown doesn't want to do is turn the campaign to an ideological one because ideologically, MA is much more in tune with Capuano (or whoever dems put up) then with Brown.

[ Parent ]
I'm not saying
that Brown would use that playbook. What I am saying is that Capuano lacks the bipartisan, "independent-minded" credentials that Brown possesses. And I certainly don't think that Capuano's progressive stances are a liability; they're perfectly in line with his district and perhaps only a few notches to the left of the state as a whole. The point I'm making is about the contrast that Brown could present -- the pragmatic moderate vs. the ideologue.

I agree that Brown doesn't want to make the campaign overtly ideological, but there's not really any way to avoid ideology entering the discourse -- that's kind of a given. All I mean to convey is that running against a candidate like Capuano is going to allow Brown to advertise his moderate stances in a way that running against a more centrist candidate would not.

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
Your mistake is reflexively assuming voters frame choices ideologically......
Only partisan voters, who by definition are unpersuadable except on whether they actually show up to vote, consistently see elections ideologically.

Swing voters usually don't.

So Brown posturing as a "moderate" or "centrist" doesn't necessarily matter.  There have been lots of moderate/centrist Republicans who lost to liberal Democrats, and moderate/centrist Democrats who lost to conservative Republicans.

It's up to the candidates and their campaigns to define the election.  No doubt Brown will want to couch it based on ideology and personal likeability, which he figures can get him to 52% just like last time.  But it's not a given he'll outcampaign whoever wins the Democratic nomination to frame it that way.

But ideology alone seldom matters to swing voters...and if it does, that's dicey for Brown in a state like Massachusetts in a presidential year.  He bleeds even a little support from before, he loses.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
A couple things
I don't see why Capuano losing to Coakley in the primary says anything, I know that Coakley ran a horrible general campaign, but I had heard absolutely nothing about Coakley running a poor primary campaign. The two are different animals, period.

The other thing is that even granting what you say is true, Capuano would still be closer, ideologically speaking, to the median voter in Massachusetts as a very liberal Democrat than Brown as a moderate Republican, and Brown, by the very nature of Massachusetts, needs to convince a lot of Obama voters to vote for him, but Capuano (or any other Democrat) does not need cross-over voters to win, so if Brown tries to make it about ideology, he'll lose, period.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
There really was no primary campaign
Primary interest and turnout was absurdly low (I think it was as low as 5% in some towns) and Coakley coasted through it largely based on superior statewide name recognition.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
Democrats need a star to run against him
If they don't have a Kennedy, they need to make someone into a hero. They're not going to have an easy time ousting Sen. Scott Brown with Joe Generic, even if Mr. Generic is a congressman.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I think that
Bob Massie might be it.  I don't know how serious a campaigner and fundraiser he is, but by his story alone, he seems to fit the bill.

He's had HIV since the time of the first outbreak (by blood transfusion), but he went on to be a successful businessman and ran for Lt. Governor in 1994.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
I wonder how many people who say that MA-Sen leans Dem have said that about various popular-but-bad-district Dems over the years
This has consistently annoyed me. If it's so hard to win if your Presidential ticket is doing poorly, how did people like Bobby Bright win in 2008? He wasn't even the incumbent. And when early 2010 polls showed him way ahead, many of you thought he was safe. Yes, there are some significant differences in their scenarios, but I don't think they really detract from the point.  

I think Brown's fortunes will be somewhat like how Bright's were: he'll lose only in a significantly pro-Dem year. If Obama wins narrowly, Brown should coast unless he manages to draw an unexpectedly strong challenger and/or has a big decline in his approval rating for non-national swing reasons. This just doesn't actually happen that often, despite some eagerness here about how "he's popular now but we'll define him in the campaign."

[ Parent ]
I think even if Obama wins narrowly
he'd still carry MA by 60%+. I'm not saying Brown will definitely lose, but that's a helluva lotta Obama supporters he has to keep from voting a straight party line. The trouble with Brown is, he's so personally appealing and charismatic, he might be able to do just that. If he eeks this one out, he'll be a MA institution for years to come.  

NY-01/NY-19
[ Parent ]
It's fairly simple by the numbers:
the Democratic candidate merely has to get 80 percent of Democrats, 50 percent of Independents, and no less than five percent of Republicans. In a breakdown of 40/40/20 for D/I/R, which is actually a little too generous for Republicans, that would give the Democratic candidate 53 percent of the vote in a two-person race.

The Democratic candidate could also drop to 40 of the Independent vote and win 85 percent of Democrats and still come out ahead. And so on.

The problem with Coakley is that she was destroyed amongst Independents by 30 or so points, possibly even more, if memory serves me correctly. Brown only won 19 percent of Democrats, which is a huge percentage but hardly something that can't be cut down.

I don't want to pretend it'll be easy to take him down, if only because he's not an idiot and will fight like a dog to keep his seat. But unless the Democrats are facing an even worse situation than 2010 presented, there's no reason for them to get blown out of the water. They might end up losing, but it shouldn't be because they didn't try. Most Democrats would sell vital organs to have the sort of advantages a Massachusetts Democrat has going into this race.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Could be argued Bright won because of Obama
Getting African-Americans out. But it is becoming much harder to do.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

 

[ Parent ]
really tough to say this far out
I know, I know that doesn't stop us from trying to peg the races, but considering how wildly the electorate swung between 2006/2008 and 2010, it truly is hard to predict anything.  I have no doubt that if the Missouri Senate race of 2010 had been held two years earlier, Carnahan would have beaten Blunt.  Same goes for New Hampshire between Hodes and Ayotte.  Then again, looking at it the opposite way, Mark Kennedy probably would have defeated Amy Klobuchar had that election happened in 2010 instead of 2006.  So who knows?

Obviously, if 2012 turns against us, we could easily lose most of our seats that Rothenberg lists (though I think Manchin, Casey, and Cantwell are like Boxer and Murray of the past cycle.  Worthwhile targets, but ultimately out of reach.)

If the 2012 electorate turns out to be more similar to 2008, then I expect us to hold almost all of ours, and probably pick up Brown's, Ensign's, and maybe even Kyl's (Arizona is rapidly changing and won't have McCain on the ballot, Obama may even win the state) or Lugar's (should he be teabagged and we get a good nominee...Obama already won Indiana once).

Still, there's no denying that the best case scenario has us netting 3 or so, while worst case has us losing 8.  Even a politically neutral environment has us losing several while only picking up 1 or 2.  Which truthfully wouldn't be so odd...the odd thing is that in the past three cycles, the political party that gained Senate seats didn't lose a single one.

[ Parent ]
I think their best case is probably six
And that would depend on them winning the presidency. Can't see much for Dems beyond breaking even unless something very strange happens.
[ Parent ]
If everything goes well for Dems I could see us picking up one or two
I think Brown's seat will fall and think we have a good possibility of picking up Nevada as well. I think Arizona is off the table unless Kyl retires, but a lot of people seem to think that's a good possibility.

Right now, I'd say Nelson is the only Dem seat that seems to me to be tilt Republican.  

[ Parent ]
My Take
Nelson is lean R, McCaskill is pure tossup, Manchin is favored, Menendez and Stabenow are lean D, Ensign is tossup tilt GOP and Snowe is a pure tossups. Just my very early view.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Snowe
If she makes it out of a primary, (and with the Tea Party in disarray in Maine plus LePage saying he will back Snowe that is looking more likely) that seat is safe R.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
[ Parent ]
Agree she is safe if she is the GOP nominee
But there is still plenty time for a strong challenger to emerge.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01...

Some great quotes there.

[ Parent ]
I
am putting it at pure tossup because I don't think Snowe will make it out of her primary. Her Republican re-elect numbers are pitiful and I don't care if LePage is behind her, I can't see her winning. If she did win the nomination then yes she would be safe.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not buying the LePage thing either
No doubt it helps but I seriously doubt it is determinative. Endorsements rarely are.
[ Parent ]
The concern that teabaggers have with the LePage endorsement
...is that his teabag political machine (which was formidable enough  to win the general election) will now be working for Snowe instead of against her, undercutting the teabaggers' efforts in the primary.  They will have to rebuild their infrastructure, and right now, no one is taking the lead.
[ Parent ]
Didn't help Bennet in Utah
One of the issues with the Tea Party faction is that they don't have much leadership -- and don't follow most of those leaders that they do have.  
[ Parent ]
Its different
When there is a Tea Party Governor who can the Tea Party is very loyal to and he has strong control over. What do you mean by it not helping Bennet? What Tea Party machine was behind him? What big name Tea PArty endorsement did he have?  
[ Parent ]
Your points are well taken
A quick re-reading of what I had suggests that you're on point w/r/t actual Tea Party opposition to Bennet (I had the opposite impression.)

Nevertheless, I retain the impression that Tea Party leaders are limited in their ability to control their followers. (as opposed to right-wing Evangelical leaders) Don't think they would have become so strong if R leaders had listened to their concerns immediately after '08.

And it's not like Snowe is to the right of Bennet or is any less estabilshment than he was.

[ Parent ]
"Formidable enough to win the general election"?
He won a very divided primary and then a general election with 38% (and even then only barely). I think people have been guilty of overestimating LePage's political network by a lot, and whatever LePage does isn't really going to affect whether or not Snowe is able to win a primary or not.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
LOL, what "machine" is that???......
With all due respect, I can't help but laugh at the notion of a teabagger "machine."

tietack is right, no one controls these people.  This isn't like the big city Democratic machines of yesterday, if anything it's the other extreme.

It might very well be that teabagging voters get a clue and realize they have to accept impure center-right Republicans in certain states and districts that aren't conservative enough to accept pure conservatives.  LePage himself is a fluke, he didn't even reach 40%.  But LePage endorsing Snowe isn't going to matter to teabagging voters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Seems fair to me
I agree with most of your critiques. Nelson isn't dead but he's in such a big hole that his race does start at lean R. I think Manchin and Cantwell are both in less trouble than Rothenberg projects, and Stabenow should be Lean D. I'm OK with Menendez at Safe D for now because there's no obvious challenger to him, but if someone serious does get involved that race should move to Lean or Likely D.

The Nevada race is Lean Dem if Ensign is the nominee and probably Tilt R with Heller, who I think will have a tough race with Obama atop the ballot. Scott Brown is really too early to call at this point. We have to see if his popularity holds up over this session of Congress, and if the Democrats can avoid a nasty primary.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Agree completely
Furthermore with Manchin and Cantwell, there's no sign anyone strong on the R side will oppose them. Capito (WV) at best looks like a Gov candidate in '11, and McKenna (WA) wants to be Gov too.

Beyond them, the R options look weaker than Raese and Rossi. Of course, there's always the possibility of a self-funder, but otherwise, it looks like some dude/dudette against them.

[ Parent ]
IN-09, Bloomington Mayor
John Hamilton is running for Mayor of Bloomington.  He is a student council member and local big shot who is married to the now famous Dawn Johnsen, he is brother of Judge David Hamilton and nephew of former Congressman Lee Hamilton. I have heard from a friend that he has better than even chances of winning. Baron Hill has been stumping for him I know. It is my view that he could be a competitive candidate for IN-9 in the future if they don't dismantle the district too much, I don't think they will as they rightly think Young is safe as he is, and if it is an open seat. I think Young will likely run for his former boss's Senate seat in eight years, assuming Lugar still occupies the seat that is. In an open seat in a neutral year Hamilton could ride in with his family name. Him as Mayor creates a really good candidate as a backup option for something in the future that's for sure and the incumbent Mayor is not Mr. popularity and I don't see him moving up. Also while we are talking about IN-9 I heard from the same friend that they think former dem nominee for state auditor Sam Locke could be a potential candidate for Congress. I know Locke has made some anti Young comments on his facebook. I like Locke, I really do and hope he runs. He would not win but he would give us dems a reason to show up at least.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I never got the impression that Mayor Kruzan
was in any danger of getting a serious challenge. Although that might explain the fact that I got a request to join the campaign. It sounds like Hamilton has a serious vision for the future of Bloomington and if he's anything like his wife then I like him even more.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
he's definitely vulnerable. He absolutely could win IDK, but he is definitely vulnerable I think. I am kind of surprised to see Hill campaign against him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Hill has strong ties to Bloomington and he probably wants to
see the Democratic base built up in the district. Kruzan doesn't seem to want to go anywhere else and Bloomington is the largest city in the district. Don't get me wrong Kruzan has done a lot to help the city, but we need someone with a larger vision and perhaps more ambition.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
I
agree and I would probably vote Hamilton if I lived there but I just always thought Hill and Kruzan were close.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Excuse me.
School Board Member. Although it would make things more interesting if he was a student council member running for mayor.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Funny
SNL clip of Bachmann:
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Anyone
noticing that "Discreet Partners Only" ad to the left of the screen? Or is that just me?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Yeah
Its there.  
[ Parent ]
Hey, since you're here
Can you post a link to the new blog?  
[ Parent ]
Here
www.redracinghorses.com

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Red Racing Horses
http://www.redracinghorses.com/

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
The word "Ensign" generates it
.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I did and it is kind of revealing, but if it gives SSP money then I can live with it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Didn't finish
It's not worse than the time someone posted a link to a gay porn site that I clicked on at work.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Wow
Did anyone see?  
[ Parent ]
Lol.
Yes actually a former worker happened to be walking by, she thought it was funny. Apparently there is a site were guys posts rather provocative pictures of themselves holding ipods and a picture of John McCain got on there and someone posted it here, curiously I clicked the link and there was a lot of stuff on the side that was not work place appropriate.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I see it too.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Your
random SSP factoid of the day:

The premier (governor) of the Australian state of New South Wales (containing Sydney) Kristina Keneally is actually a native of Toledo, Ohio. During her college years at the University of Dayton she was active in politics and was a registered Democrat. She moved to Australia in 1994 to be with her future husband, Ben who was an Australian native before moving back to the US in 1996 and then moving back two years after their eldest son was born. Keneally became a Australian citizen in 2000 and was elected NSW Legislative Assembly in 2003, she would become premier in 2009 after defeating the incumbent premier Nathan Rees by a 45-21 margin in party wide ballot.

She's not expected to be premier for much longer as the Australian Liberal/National coalition holds a wide lead over her Labor party in the polls and is expected to sweep the statewide elections in March.

Don't ask how I know this stuff....

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

LA-Gov
I was looking around the Louisiana political scene for any possible candidates

Well i found one

Richard Ieyoub-Former Attorney General and he apparently he is allied with the liberal wing in the state      

He already lost a couple
of statewide races. And to be associated "with the liberal wing" of the party is rather drag then asset in present day Louisiana. The only statewide elected Democrat i remember (AG Buddy Caldwell) is, probably, more conservative then Jindal on many issues..
[ Parent ]
Caldwell
There are rumors he is going to jump ship any day now. He is very worried about a strong challenger in 2012. The rumors got so loud in media this week that the state Dem party had to issue a statement saying Caldwell will not switch. As for leyoub, he is done with politics as far as I can tell.  
[ Parent ]
No doubt
They wouldn't issue such a statement without Caldwell's consent, so I consider that legit enough.  
Besides, he can still rally the conservative vote to his side and isn't in the middle of something controversial.  This will be a case where the person trumps party label.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The only challenge
he would worry about is a primary one due to his conservatism.  However, he could avoid that by touting his accomplishments (which I hear are good) and letting the jungle primary system take care of the rest.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
LA has jungle primaries
A challenge from his left would only help him pick up more Reps, Indys, and conservatives.  
[ Parent ]
That's what I meant
A jungle primary would help him.  Ergo, he need not worry.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Right now i don't see
neither a good AG candidate from Republican ranks, nor compelling reason to run against so conservative Democrat. Only because he has "D" letter after his name? Very unconvincing for me)))
[ Parent ]
Do you agree with me
that the state Dem Party would not issue a statement on his future without his consent?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Most likely - yes

[ Parent ]
They have candidates
Just some (Jefferson Parish President John Young) are not ready to run, or are going after other opportunities. Someone to watch is Sen. Julie Quinn, Young's girlfriend. She is ambitious and a strong fundraiser. She has some personal baggage though from her messy divorce. But, Caldwell also has some big baggage. Quinn may run for Young's parish council seat though in April.  
[ Parent ]
I think
in Caldwell's case, a party switch is not an if, but a when. I mean the guy's going to get a strong challenger because he's the last Democrat holding a statewide office (besides Mary Landrieu) in state. Plus conservative Democrats are quickly becoming extinct in the state.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I don't think so.
If he has conservative support, there wouldn't be much of a force to send an R up against him because conservatives like him.  He can appeal to a broad coaltion.

And I would define that when as being probably after he leaves public office if that press release is true about him not defecting (which seems legitimate).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Not convinced
He is old enough to win easily in November, serve his term and retire in 2015 still as conservative Democrat. If he wold be 40 and plan 30-year career ahead of him - then, of course, yes.

Conservative Democrats become extinct everywhere in the South. And the more black and liberal state parties become (and now as far as i remember - majority of Democratic legislators in Alabama, Mississippi, and may be - Georgia, South Carolina and Louisiana are black) - the more of them will leave. In fact they don't lie when they say "this ain't my party anymore" - they grew in white-dominated conservative state Democratic environment which doesn't exist anymore. As  any biologist will tell: when environment collapses - all "fauna", populating it, vanishes. The same is mostly true for North-East moderate republicans too, who often look with horror on "naughty teabaggers", sizing control of state parties there and say the same words: "this ain't my party anymore"....

[ Parent ]
Multiple votes for the '12 NH Primary?
Found this on my slashdot RSS - http://freekeene.com/2011/01/2...

Four Republican state representatives have sponsored a bill that would replace first-past-the-post voting with approval voting for all state offices and presidential primaries.

Under this system, voters would select every candidate they approve of (regardless of party), and the candidate with the highest overall vote total wins.

For a definition of "approval voting" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A... aka -- vote for as many candidates as you like -- but no more than one vote per candidate.

Doesn't
that ruin the honor that NH rep voters can kick out any rep candidate they want
[ Parent ]
WV-Gov Primaries: Something we missed.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Tomblin - 25%
Tennant - 24%
Perdue - 16%

If Capito runs (which PPP says seems unlikely), she's favored in the primary.  If she doesn't, Betty Ireland is.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Tomblin
has a job approval of 52%.  Tennant has favorability over 50%.  Didn't think Tomblin would catch on and be more than a seat filler.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Raw data here:
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Tim Jenson posted one of his famous cock teases just now
A state obama is up by 8 against palin, but hasn't been won by a dem since 1964.  I'm going to guess North Dakota or South Dakota.  Any guesses?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
The Dakotas
Or Kansas.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Alaska please
for the lulz

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking that too
her approval rating has really crashed there since the '08 campaign.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
[ Parent ]
Could be
But why would they poll it? Other than for laughs.
[ Parent ]
Those are good guesses.
I'd love for it to be North Dakota in particular. Perhaps that would be enough to convince Democrats not to give up on the Senate race before it's really begun.

Kansas, as other people have guessed, might make sense. I doubt it's Oklahoma or Mississippi, and I highly doubt it's Utah, Wyoming, Alabama, or Idaho.

My guess? South Carolina.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Actually, that's out
because Carter won it in 1976.

I'm changing my guess to Kansas.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
All the possibilities are plains/western states
The list:

Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Utah
Wyoming

Unless they paid for someone to do a live intro, they can't poll ND. Idaho, Oklahoma, Utah, and Wyoming seem highly unlikely (and they've already done Wyoming recently). My guess is Nebraska, since they may have gone ahead and polled the Senate race.

[ Parent ]
Agree on Nebraska
Considering he won a district last time.
[ Parent ]
probably ND
Obama did fairly well there, and it would make sense to poll it after Conrad announced he wouldn't run again.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
They can't unless they hired live-callers
And I think Tom said in the past that it wouldn't make financial sense.
[ Parent ]
ah
Maybe it was Nebraska then. I can't imagine that they would poll SD with no 2012 Senate race.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Not Nebraska
[ Parent ]
It would be possible if someone like DailyKos pay to PPP for do it...

North Dakota is one of the most likely options, with Alaska. PPP give some result for Alaska recently just about Palin.
[ Parent ]
Barone
Does this not strike anybody else has a totally unsatisfactory way to judge vulnerability?

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Depending on retirements, few would expect Casey, Kohl, Bingaman, Cantwell or Klobuchar to have much trouble.

Barone part II
I was actually more intrigued by his supposition that a state's congressional vote in the preceding mid-term was a reliable predictor of a state's vote in the next Presidential election.

Is there any basis to this?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
Turnout is completely different.
[ Parent ]
Guesses for (lack of) corrolation
If Barone's supposition were true

Clinton would have lost in '96 (after the anti-D landslide in '94)
Dukakis would have won in '88 (after Ds won 54% of the House popular vote in '86)
Mondale would have won in '84 (after Ds won 55% of the House vote in '82)

etc.....

[ Parent ]
Dems had a great midterm in '98
How come 2000 was a tie? Though I guess the GOP did well in 2002 then won in 2004 and the Dems in 2006 and 2008. As the two most recent examples that may hold some water. I know Baystater believes in this two-cycle trend.
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
For instance in '94 the GOP won tons of house seats in state's they've been winning for years in presidential elections, so it's not necessarily a vote to vote comparison like Barone is making.

Here would be a good test, look at states where Kerry lost in '04, but Dems won a CoDel majority vote in '06 & Obama won/lost in '08. Do it again for Clinto in '92 vs '94 and see if a pattern holds.

I'm not going to do it, but it would be interesting to see the results...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
It would be interesting
Senate races certainly wouldn't work - Obama lost Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota and West Virginia. Bush lost Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire and Oregon. It works the other way around because there has been a trend developing over the last couple decades of polarization.
[ Parent ]
Agreed on Senate Races
I'll have to go back and re-read Barone's piece, but I'm pretty sure he was equating Congressional (not Senate) race vote percentages as a harbinger of Presidential vote percentages by state.

Senate (and Governor) races are much more high profile and can often defy trends that are more clearly on display in lower federal elections. I'm not sure how that would affect an even higher profile POTUS race though, or is he supposing that POTUS races are so high profile they actually conform with congressional results even more?

This isn't a great piece, either in the presentation of the argument or the resarch done to support that argument. I'm a big fan of Barone's work so it's very dissapointing to see such poorly done writing in one of his first looks at the 2012 races.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Yeah he is talking House races
But tietack pretty clearly debunked it. Unless 2002 and 2006 changed everything.
[ Parent ]
And even then
Dems did great in places like Kentucky and West Virginia in 2006 and Obama didn't carry them. Bush also didn't win Delaware and a Democrat didn't carry South Dakota or North Dakota despite their Congressional representation.
[ Parent ]
Kentucky?
Did Dems get a higher percentage of the house race election in Kentucky than Obama did? I seriously doubt that.... WV could be a strong example since I'm fairly confident the Dems won a majority of the house race vote in '06 (and '08) while Obama did not, but did Dems to do better in '06 than they had in '04 and did Obama do better than Kerry did in '04?

I don't have the answer to those questions, but even then Barone was talking about states that shifted from Dem majority vote in '08 to GOP majority vote in '10 (both congress only). The question is if THAT is a predictor of the '12 POTUS vote in those states.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Obama did worse than Kerry in WV
Better in KY. I don't know for sure but I would think the joint Congressional vote in 2006 was higher than 41% with the performances of Chandler (who didn't have a Republican opponent), Yarmuth and challenges to Davis and Lewis.
[ Parent ]
All goes to the same end
Barone may be on to something with the relationship between congressional vote by state and the presidential vote the next cycle, but he does such a poor job making his argument & backing up his assertion that it's almost impossible to tell what is real and what is just him spinning bullshit.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Barone
Maybe I'm being to harsh on Barone, the portion about the Presidential vote was such a throw away paragraph at the end, but it was an intersting supposition and I hope he comes back to it, I'd like to see him try to back up his thesis on this...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Not really
I'll Barone the benefit of the doubt on the possibility of a correllation between the percentage of midterm house vote in a state and presidential vote in the following election in that state.

I'm dubious that the connection exists or is a strong as Barone implies, but if we are to refute his argument we need to talk apples to apples.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
I don't see how 55% of the vote nationally
Doesn't equate to at least a plurality in several states lost heavily two years later. But a more detailed study would be worth a look.
[ Parent ]
Actually
the '86 to Dukakis '88 numbers might actually fit Barone's pattern, I'm sure several of the states that Dems did well in during the '86 midterm eventually shifted to Dem states in the '88 presidential election. Of course it's serious cherry picking since Reagan carried 49 states...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
If I can debunk Barone's logic
before my second cup of coffee while I'm trying to analyze a port forwarding options in an iptables-based firewall configuration,

I have difficulty giving Barone the benefit of the doubt. He hasn't even defined his "apples" properly.

[ Parent ]
Guesses for (lack of) corrolation
If Barone's supposition were true

Clinton would have lost in '96 (after the anti-D landslide in '94)
Dukakis would have won in '88 (after Ds won 54% of the House popular vote in '86)
Mondale would have won in '84 (after Ds won 55% of the House vote in '82)

etc.....

[ Parent ]
Yeah
The argument reminded me of two things - The PUMA "Big state" fallacy and Scott Brown winning meant Republicans would also win the House races where he did well.
[ Parent ]
I think the connection is very flawed
For one, there was a large enthusiasm gap and lots of Democrats did not vote in the midterm, something that won't be prevalent next year. Other than that, most districts have an incumbent bias, one that doesn't always match up to presidential totals.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
There's really
no argument there besides the following: things sucked for the Democrats in 2010 and they will suck as badly if not worse in 2012 because I said so.

He completely ignores the fact that the Teabaggers are ready to go after any and all candidates that they don't like, no matter what the consequences. Olympia Snowe being ahead in the polls right now is meaningless if she's not on the ballot in 2012.

He doesn't mention anything about turnout. There is, of course, a limit to how much this can make a difference, but I don't think any Democratic candidate in any state, except for perhaps Harry Reid, maximized turnout. And when you are talking about a presidential race or a senate race, where a vote from an urban area is as valuable as a vote from a rural area, it's definitely something to consider.

He also doesn't mention the fact that Obama's leading in most, if not all, of the polls that have come out from swing states in the last few months. One could easily argue that none of the biggest candidates will be the nominee, but based on the information we have right now, he's not getting killed. It doesn't mean he'll be easily reelected, but considering the beating Obama's party took in the last election, you'd think it'd be worth mentioning. Apparently not, if you are Michael Barone.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Kohl running?
I think
the more interesting post is the one right below it: Republicans Promise Scott Brown Challenge

Really, you idiots? This is the best use of your time and money?

I have no idea if this is going to go anywhere, but I am eager to find out. What a gift it would be to the Democrats to have some nut replace Brown as the Republican candidate.

http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Baloney
Biggest sign this "challenge" is a press hit, not a serious campaign challenge: There dividing line is START? They are going to be awful busy preparing challengers for all the GOPers who voted for START. I think their focus groups said that START is bugging their top donors and Scott Brown is a name they all know.

Until I hear a credible GOPer (if such a thing exists in MA) actually challenge Brown in a primary I'm going to call bullshit on any of these outside groups threatening to spend money to hurt him.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
What's baloney?
I'm not sure what your objection is.

Did you read the article in The New York Times about the Tea Party and how it is going about the 2012 Senate races? From the article (link below):

The advocates in Indiana, which national Tea Party groups say has the most organized of the primary efforts, point to Mr. Lugar's push for the New Start nuclear treaty, which the Senate approved in December; his sponsorship of the Dream Act, which would grant a path to citizenship for limited groups of illegal immigrants; and his votes for President Obama's picks for the Supreme Court, Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan.

So that's certainly not the only thing that they are focusing on, but yes, the Start Treaty looks to be a problem for some of them.

I'll be the first to admit that this "challenge" could mean nothing at all. But if you read the article I mentioned above, you'll learn that some of these people had the balls to send Lugar a letting asking him to resign. (No wonder he's so hostile to them.) They may not get anywhere, but they will certainly try. The bottom of that National Journal post says that they will be interviewing candidates in the northeast soon.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Ah, shit, here's that link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
My point exactly
Lugar is going to see a legitimate challenge and they provide a laundry list of votes Lugar made that has seriously PO'd the tea party and it's advocates, compare that with Brown and just START?

Why not mention Frank-Dodds? Seems like that is a bigger step off the reservation, but I'm guessing it doesn't test as well with their direct mail targets. Brown also voted for DADT repeal...crickets from these bozos.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
The Start treaty
may be this guy's pet cause, but does it take that much imagination to see how this may get the ball rolling? Is it that difficult to imagine the guy who they potentially find to challenge Brown--someone obscure most likely--would use the other stuff against him, even if it was largely for political reasons?

Trust me, I know that this is hardly the end for Scott Brown. It could turn out to be nothing at all, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss these people.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I'm not dismissing a challenge
Brown is certainly vulnerable, both in the general and potentially in a primary (though I doubt it), and for these ass hats? They themselves aren't a threat, but others, who actually have real donors and organizations, might take this as signal to move ahead with a legitimate effort to displace Brown.

I still things these (particular) yahoos are just raising money to line their won pockets...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
woops
their OWN pockets

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke
[ Parent ]
Why do you dimiss
this group so easily? I know it's small in scale and it appears to be obsessed with one issue, but aside from its size and small fund raising numbers, why wouldn't you take it seriously? Those are important things, but they can change for the better (for the group, anyway) fairly quickly.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
This group?
Not likely, there are a dozen or so of these generic sounding conservative groups that are little more than a PR front (and money siphon) for direct mail outfits. They make enough noise to seem like players, which gets them on TV & Radio, but all they really do is scare mom & dad (mine in particular) into giving money so they can pay themselves huge "Strategic Consulting" fees that keeps them living high on the hog between election cycles.

Every once in a while one does try to go legit (United Seniors Association being a prime example), but most of them are just A-Holes lining their own pockets.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Hmm.
I guess you could say I'm now of the mindset that there's no telling what these people will do if they want to make an impact. It looks like this guy wants to do just that.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Nah
"He may face an uphill fight in that race, however. Wisconsin turned a few shades redder in 2010, as Republicans made significant gains at every level of government."

Michael Barone in disguise!

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin?
What does that have to do with anything?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
A more interesting post

[ Parent ]
From the post
"the National Republican Trust isn't a major financial powerhouse; it raised $1.1 million through late November 2010, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission, and spent $1.4 million on elections."

These guys are fundraising charletons, they pick high name ID elected officials on hot button votes in order to raise cash, but they aren't spending squat in the grand scheme of things and I'd bet some serious dough their "burn rate" on donation is huge, they pay themselves huge consulting fees to provide "Strategic Services" and milk direct mail donors by scaring them with RINO boogeymen.

Ass Hats.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Maybe, maybe not.
You could be right that they aren't going to make any difference, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss these guys.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Certainly Encouraging for the DSCC
I'm in no way saying he'll run again or not, but this loan is meaningless. It's an insignificant amount of money, both to him personally and to his campaign, and he can also pay himself back any remaining campaign funds if/when he decides to call it quits.

I'd bet he does run again, but reading tea leaves like this is basically pointless with a candidate like Kohl.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Why is it meaningless?
Why bother doing it at all if you weren't running? And it may be insignificant to him personally but most campaigns would bite your hand off for that kind of injection.
[ Parent ]
And if it is meaningless and insignificant
Why is it encouraging to the DSCC?
[ Parent ]
Clarification
It's certainly encouraging for the DSCC to see him inject money into the campaign, doing it is certainly better than not, but to take this as some difinetive word on what his re-election plans are is silly.

If I had to bet I'd say he does run again, but I'm not going to base that bet on a donation he made to his committee that he can just as easily take back.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Didn't say it was definitive

[ Parent ]
I didn't say YOU did
From the post:

"Wisconsin Sen. Herb Kohl (D) loaned his campaign $1 million in the last quarter of 2010, seemingly putting to rest speculation that he may retire instead of seeking re-election next year"

"Seemingly" give some wiggle room I guess, but the piece clearly implies that this loan is a firm statement of intent on Senator Kohl's part, I'm calling that supposition false.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
Fair enough
But it is still a tea leaf pointing in that direction, particularly since he self funds.
[ Parent ]
Arizona Open Senate Seat?
Hotline talking up Kyl retirement rumors had this nugget;

"But according to recent data from the Arizona's Secretary of State's office, the number of registered independents has eclipsed the number of registered Democrats in the state, illustrating the uphill climb Democrats still face in the predominately red state."

Hmmmmmmm, AZ hispanic population grows, but percentage of Dems falls. Exactly what the heck is going on down there?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

Why is this seen as
some sort of problem only for Democrats? Obama actually won Independents in 2008 against McCain, although not by much.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
From the AZ SoS
"Independent voters in Arizona now outnumber registered Democrats. The latest statewide registration report puts the number of independents at 1,010,725 as of Jan. 1. That's about 2,000 more than the Democratic registration total of 1,008,689. Republicans still account for the largest registration category at 1,142,605 registered voters."

134k registration advantage is significant. Assuming an equal turnout among all voter blocks (a huge assumption I admit, but worthwhile as a jump off point) a Dem would need to win 64.7% of Independents to win get 50%+1.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

[ Parent ]
FWIW
Arizona has a tradition of white conservative Democrats stretching from the White Mountains into (the once rural) Pinal County, with another colony in Yuma County. These people have been trending Republican for a while, moving pretty dramatically in that direction since 2004. It might just be people changing their party registration to match how they're already voting.

So yes, we're boned in parts of rural Arizona that don't have lots of Natives or Latinos or Hippies, but we've already know that for a while.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
Remember Bob Stump?
Successfull Arizona state legislator and congressman for a while. Both - as very conservative Democrat. And this was long before 2004. If i am correct - he switched in 1981 after approx. 4.5 years as Democratic congressman...
[ Parent ]
And this is different from the last
few years how, exactly?

You can glance at the numbers yourself from the link below*, but there's been no significant trend, at least none that I can detect. Republicans have always been more numerous than Democrats in the state, at least as far as the records available to me go back. The margin might have become a little more narrow or a little less narrow depending on which year's figures you are looking at, but I can't see any sort of fleeing of the Democratic party. Their numbers went down a little, the Republicans went up a little, and the Independents went up by a lot.

Perhaps this will change if the Democrats work on registering voters in the state, but perhaps not. Or maybe there will be a continued long term trend towards registering as an Independent. Whatever the case, right now, it looks like the Democrats have to do well (although perhaps not as well as you surmise) with Independents to win. So again, I ask, how is this different than the last few years?

*Very well done, easy-to-access information from the Arizona Secretary of State. If only more could be like this.

http://www.azsos.gov/election/...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 368 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox