why do you even bother man??

Republicans control redistricting in Florida so something like this would never happen. Don't waste your time.

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by: ramacher @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 02:49:30 AM UTC

Probably half of the diaries on this site are for circumstances that won't happen

It can just be fun to see what something like this would look like and how far it can be taken.

Male, VA-08

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by: drobertson @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 04:17:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We specialize in hypotheticals around here

No need to be so critical.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 04:24:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

yeah...

that was pretty harsh :\

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 04:44:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's okay.

I think it's fair to say that most SSP members who don't go around making rude comments at every turn are very thankful for the time and effort put into redistricting maps, especially for a large and difficult state like Florida.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 12:58:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks :)

I considered going for a smaller state first, but I live here and was just testing out Daves App for the first time and wanted to see what people thought. I wish I had partisan data!

And btw, these maps do take a lot more time than I thought.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 21:13:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ZOMG!!! YOU'RE SO RIGHT!!!!!

Seeing as how leaders of state legislatures around the country read every redistricting diary that is published on SSP we really should make sure all are completely realistic w/r/t to the partisan control of the state. Thank you for correcting the misconceptions held by some that this is merely a website for politically-interested people to discuss interesting hypotheticals and scenarios and keeping us focused on more important tasks such as posting Republican gerrymanders of Oregon that will doubtlessly be followed by the Democratic State Senate and Governor.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

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by: okiedem @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 06:44:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My goodness

I hope people around the country are not reading my posts.  I need to focus more on my grammer and spelling.  

That being said I enjoy even the wayout never going to happen maps here.  

I often focus on what I think the likeliest scenerio or map will be.

My sense of reading posts from around the nation on various newspapers leads me to think that maps this cycle will be more compact then in 2001-2002.  I could be wrong but MD PA TX and even IL may look a lot less weird then last time.  The maps here keep getting stranger and more convoluted but I actually think compact and less gerrmandered will be in during this cycle.

I could be completely wrong but lets watch and see.

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by: rdelbov @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 13:51:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It begs the question

w/r/t why you wrote your diary on OR redistricting to give Rs an extra seat, when Rs have less control over the process than they did after the 2000 census.

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by: tietack @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 06:58:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Seriously

I think its pretty harsh to trash this redistricting plan as pointless when your redistricting plan in Oregon would NEVER have gotten the governor's signature, passed the state senate OR been instituted by the courts.

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by: georgetownsfs10 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 08:00:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good point

I didn't even notice that this was the same poster who posted that Oregon map. That makes their comment here even more ridiculous.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 15:30:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Too optimistic (Part 1)

From a perspective of a former Florida resident, your estimates for the Democratic performances in quite a few of your districts are way too optimistic.  

In the Big Bend area, unless you can cut off the military-heavy (and therefore heavily GOP) Bay County (Panama City, home to Tyndall AFB), a few rural counties that are Blue Dog in registration but GOP-heavy at the federal level and link portions of either Gainesville or AA-heavy parts of Jacksonville; your CD2 is lean to likely R.

For similar reasons (rural counties), your CD3 would be lean to likely R; and never bank on making a CD Democratic by solely by partaking a county-containing a college town, as rural Alachua is very much a Blue Dog country (as proven by recent elections in Florida Senate's District 14 and County Commission District 4 race, where a Dem incumbent was defeated).  Plus, turnouts by college-age voters tends to be very unreliable.  Furthermore, Citrus County is retiree heavy and fairly GOP, and Christian conservatives are very active in the Ocala area (Think Dennis Baxley, the two-time State Rep. from District 24)

To make your CD5 a swing district, you need to remove its portion in Clay County (unless it's heavily AA), as Clay is one of the most lopsidedly GOP counties of the state.  

Your CD6 would also be lean to likely R, as St. Johns county is a heavily GOP area, and I've a book on Florida Politics which states that its a hotbed for state GOP fundraising.  Also, Volusia County isn't that liberal at all, as Alex Sink didn't win here in her gubernatorial race.  Add a significant portion of Seminole County and you guarantee a healthy GOP lean.

In the Orlando area, your CD8 would be lean D at the best (you can't rely on a disparate group of minorities to overcome the white vote; and it seems a coalition of conservative white plus Hispanic voter is more likely to materialize here)

CD14 would probably be likely R in your map, due to significant chunks of Seminole and Brevard counties (I've heard that space workers are heavily GOP voters, probably due to their affinity to military ethos or distaste for Democratic coolness towards space programs.  Also, Brevard is another hotbed of the State's Christian conservatism)

Your CD15 is tossup at best, as Puerto Ricans are by no means uniformly Democratic, and the white voters in Polk/exurban Osceola (St. Cloud and Celebration etc.) are GOP-leaning due to their rural heritage and/or affluence.  Polk County is yet another hotbed of Christian conservative activism.

My advices in drawing Democratic districts in this area is: never draw any portions of Seminole County (maybe except Sanford?), the cities of Winter Park and Maitland into them (they are generally affluent areas).  Nor should one try to include white portions of Apopka, Ocoee and Winter Garden; as well as any portions of Polk and Lake counties in creating a Democratic district (The whites there are probably heavily GOP, due to their rural roots).

Part 2 of my response, covering Tampa Bay and SW Florida to follow.

31, Asian male, Dem-tilting Independent, MS-02 and formerly FL-19

31, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)

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by: ECPolitico @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 03:07:12 AM UTC

Some responses

in CD2, Boyd held the district forever, and it is currently less favorable than mine. I think a bluedog can win here.

In CD5, i drew in that portion of Clay I think because it was the least white portions i could find nearby to fit into the district.

Ill admit the east coast I was very unsure about. I dont know that part of the state very well.

Ill admit, this map is more of a draft than anything. Ive never really messed with this stuff before and without partian data I dont know Obama %s.  So thanks for your insights esp on the east coast.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 03:23:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Being from the newly proposed 14th

i'd say very slightly lean R might barely vote for Obama in 12 heh,  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 19:03:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Like the map

The map is a Democrat map but I don't see how many of the central districts are fair districts worthy.

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by: notifier @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 03:38:55 AM UTC

Too optimistic (Part 2)

In your Tampa Bay area analysis, you misses CD12 (in Cornflower/Very Light Blue).  In my view, a district partaking Pinellas County from Clearwater & north, plus coastal Pasco County much of Hernando and Citrus counties should be likely to safe R.  Your CD11 is at best tossup/tilt-D, as the GOP still has a deep bench of state legislators, county commissioners and not the least, one current and one former mayor of St. Pete.  However, your predictions on CD's 9 and 10 are fairly reasonable; especially the former, as it is a more compact version of the present-day's CD11.

In your CD13, I actually think Rep. Buchanan is pretty safe there, as you've kept his geographic base pretty intact and his has some maverick knacks during the 110th & 111th Congress.  Also, any districts containing significant bits of Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte counties ought to lean GOP, no matter how country-club or moderate these voters are.  And I believe your district is also retiree-heavy, a good omen for the GOP.

Finally, I strongly disagree with your lean R assessment of CD20.  It is likely to solid R, as heavily populated areas are not automatically Dem-leaning.  Both Fort Myers and Cape Coral has immense GOP traditions for this instance.

The finally part of my response will cover the East Coast.

31, Asian male, Dem-tilting Independent, MS-02 and formerly FL-19

31, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)

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by: ECPolitico @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 03:39:55 AM UTC

I have never seen Florida divided in this manner.

Interesting.

http://mypolitikal.com/

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by: Inoljt @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 03:59:09 AM UTC

Too optimistic (Part 3)

For the East Coast portion of your map, I disagree mainly with CD's 17 and 18.  For the aforementioned reasons (See part 1), you really can't draw a swing district containing portions of Brevard (and also Indian River due to its rural roots and voting domination by retirees).  I'll rate it likely to solid R.  As for CD18, Martin County is heavily GOP for reasons similar to Indian River, and Northern Palm Beach County is the most Republican part of the entire County due to its affluence.  And the heartland portions are filled with Blue Dog Dems voting R as well.  I'll rate it tossup/tilt-R to lean R.  

Th issue with the Latinos in your CD19 is that many of them are non-voters.  I've lived in CD19 in both the current and your proposed form, and I can attest that many Latinos in the eastern portion of this district are Guatemalans or other Central Americans without a well-defined voting behavior (for  those who are citizens, and I believe the majority of them are not).

Please bear with my 3-part response, as I'm speaking from a perspective of a (relative) Florida insider.

Finally, I'm curious about your background, especially if you've ever lived in Florida and how deep is your knowledge on Florida's politics.  Thanks!  

31, Asian male, Dem-tilting Independent, MS-02 and formerly FL-19

31, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)

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by: ECPolitico @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 04:06:29 AM UTC

I live in FL

I was in Tampa for high school and currently live in Tallahassee and attend FSU.

Ill admit I dont know much about east coast and south FL, so im not surprised some of my evaluations arent very good for east coast.

However, I really disagree with what you said about CD2 and also the St pete district. CD2, as i said before, is already only R+5 or 6. Add jefferson county, and the PVI inches towards tossup, with a lot of blue dog dems plus AA and massive college base in Leon county, I see no reason someone like Boyd could represent this area.

In St pete, the PVI is near even without downtown St pete. Yes, the GOP has a deep bench so it will be competitive. Lots of old people there. But I think dems will have a very good shot at that kind of district when Young retires.

Also, the reason i drew east coast districts the way they are is because when you look at the PVI, they arent extremely republican. My intuition tells me that the Rural parts of districts like Posey, etc. are the more R-leaning ones, so that removing those and just keeping the coast will make it much more competitive.

And about lakeland area... The district I put above it takes in only the highly hispanic and AA areas of lakeland and winter haven, and takes in heavily hispanic st cloud and kissimmee. I dont see any situation Dems would lose it unless it was another 2010 with low turnout.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 04:52:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And about Vern Buchanan

He barely won in 2006. This area is Lean R currently with the rural parts of Manatee and EXCLUDES Bradenton.

Adding bradenton and minority areas in the port charlotte area i think would make this lean D comparing it to the current PVI of Verns district.

Also, take into consideration his ethics issues. I dont see how he would survive liberal votes in bradenton sarasota and minority areas on port charlotte and punta gorda.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 04:58:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Eh

Bradenton isn't that liberal, the entire county went for McCain by around an 8 point margin I believe, so at worst that part of Manatee county you have is probably 50/50 in a good Dem year.

Sarasota county is a little more Dem-friendly, but there isn't too much of a bench for the Dems there that I know of, which would probably where the best candidate for them would need to come from.

And while Buchanan's ethic issues are there, they've come to the point where it's really muddled (Buchanan is actually filing an FEC complaint against his manager for soliciting the donations I believe) so they probably won't gain any traction since they've been hashed out.

Basically, I think your FL-13 would overall be a generally moderate district, and would be lean R with Buchanan in a neutral year, and only be lean D in an open seat/good Dem year situation (remember Katherine Harris represented a lot of this distirct, and she isn't exactly mainstream.)

20, Ind, Fl-13 & Fl-6 (college)

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by: MikeFL @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 09:03:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

As much as I like a liberal-leaning Congress, I'm realistic enough to see what kind of congresspeople voters will send from particular districts.  In the case of CD13 in this map, mostly likely a center-right, country club Republican in neutral years, or a business-friendly New Democrat in good years for Dems.

31, Asian male, Dem-tilting Independent, MS-02 and formerly FL-19

31, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)

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by: ECPolitico @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 21:52:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I see what youre saying

The type of Dem I see here is exactly the Ed Case New Dem. I really think a pro-bank/corporation Dem, like Christine Jennings in 06, could win this district.

I dont think Vern will be here forever, esp with fair district. The media really hates him down there.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 22:05:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually

All the Manatee County papers endorsed him, which is where all of his dealerships are (I had to go through them since I needed to look at endorsements and such for lower offices since I voted absentee).

And Christine Jennings isn't the most, uh, likable of people.  She lost by double digits in 2008 in their rematch. In the actual district the legislature will probably draw, Buchanan is likely R unless something actually comes out of his ethics stuff.

20, Ind, Fl-13 & Fl-6 (college)

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by: MikeFL @ Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 06:59:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What about...

Gus Bilirakis? What district would he run in? Also, as this map is not going to happen, what will likely happen to his district?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

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by: TokenRepublican @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 18:37:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also, I apologize if that sounded rude.

I meant that this map is unlikely to happen, but what do you think will happen with the current FL-09?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

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by: TokenRepublican @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 18:49:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wasnt rude at all

But I imagine Bilirakis will run in whatever district that contains Tarpon Springs and other Greek heavy areas (the bilirakis name is popular around there, he is Greek and they vote heavily R for him as well as his father)

Id imagine he would take thecoast district north of Clearwter that I drew in this map.

But if Fair Districts does actually happen, i see Tampa having one district, and St pete having one. So that leaves a suburban district north of Tampa/St pete to be built, probably extending through Pasco/Hernando.

I forget who replaced Browne-Waite, but they would probably have a primary under fair districts, unless one of them elected to run in anohter district (like a central FL district, or a suburban Tampa district that extends through eastern Hillsborough and maybe Polk?)

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 19:25:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In a Bilirakis vs Nugent primary,

would Nugent defer? Also, how big would Bilirakis' lead be  over Nugent in a primary? Bilirakis did manage to garner 71% of the vote in 2010, and 61% in 2008.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

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by: TokenRepublican @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 20:08:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Reps. Gus Bilirakis & Richard Nugent, and your CD6

Rep. Bilirakis will likely run in your CD12, as it contains his Northern Pinellas County base, and Rep. Nugent can run in your CD7, as it contains significant portions of Hernando County, where he has previously elected county-wide as the Sheriff.  Just one more thing, Rep. Cliff Stearns should do fine in your CD6 despite the inclusion of the entire Alachua County, as it still contains his Ocala base, and he can mobilize a Ocala-rural counties coalition against any Dems perceived as a Gainesville liberal.

31, Asian male, Dem-tilting Independent, MS-02 and formerly FL-19

31, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)

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by: ECPolitico @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 20:54:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Idk about Stearns

If I had a more zoomed in picture, you could the parts of Ocala I drew in are the more diverse areas, with higher AA and Hispanic percentages. I left out as many high population white areas as I could, using the rural districts to the north and suburban districts to suck up those white votes.

The areas for CD6 look like it should be Lean or Likely R, but considering there are a decent amount of Blue Dogs in Madison and rural Alachua, the liberal white college vote in Gainesville, and a few heavily AA towns thrown into the mix, as well as diverse areas of Ocala, I really think this district would be very swingy.

I could see R's taking it in a yar like 2010. And Dems would have had it in 2008. But considering how both parties would have a bench here, but Dems moreso, Im inclined to think in a neutral year it would favor Dems more.

But if I wanted this district to be Likely D, I'd pull it to either Tallahassee (which I will probably experiment with) or Jacksonville (I dont like this dea as much, I think Jacksonville should have it's own district and that it could elect a Dem if drawn right)

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 21:10:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry for spelling. nm

nm

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 21:11:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also,

I think we both meant CD3 not CD6

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 23:22:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also

I really appreciate your insight. IF you would like to help me edit this map id be very happy. I wanted to try to make at least some of the east coast districts competitive to Dems, and at least one Jacksonville area seat that should be Dem (maybe draw in gainesville if needed)

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 04:55:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very nice

Although I would miss several of the Florida Republicans this map would draw out, I like how many competitive seats you drew.

One point--I think you violate the VRA in South Florida, where there are currently three Hispanic-majority seats. You'd need to make another one of those Miami-Dade seats (probably your FL-21) 50% Hispanic, unless you made up for it elsewhere and I'm missing something.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 20:34:11 PM UTC

I know :(

I plan on messing with VRA things later and publishing a heavily edited version of this map, squeezing in 3 Hispanic districts in FL

But, currently in this map i have quite a few minority-majority districts... it's just not all Hispanic or all African American.

Also, I want to know what people think will happen to the current AA majority districts. We have 3.. I do not see Corrine Browns district surviving at all.

That leaves 2, and i find it very difficult to make 2 clean AA districts in S FL. I can make fairly easily, but to make a second requires a massive, disgusting snake gerrymander, and even then its barely majority AA.

Could anyone here really see FL only with one AA majority district with 3 Hispanic majority?

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

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by: shocky27 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 23:26:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was looking FL in the App today

and discovered what you mean about that second AA district in south FL. Alcee Hasting's current district is really ugly. I'm wondering if the courts would force Florida to maintain it if they tried to dismantle it.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

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by: borodino21 @ Fri Jan 28, 2011 at 00:23:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I made this a while ago

I really think this is the only way you'll get a Democrat elected from the Tallahassee district. Bay County is too big and too Republican.
Meanwhile I think your Jacksonville district is worth trying. My guess is it's about 55% Obama.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 00:57:42 AM UTC

I like that move

but I wonder if the GOP will divide Duval differently?

The above map as a combo with a minority majority seat in Orlando would be a sweet move and would ditch the Brown seat.  

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by: rdelbov @ Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:18:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

dividing Duval

I hope Dems can force them to keep all of the black parts of Jacksonville in one district, even after it's no longer a VRA district.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 04:42:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]