Allen West

He only won in a wave, and is far too conservative for his district. Although he could surprise us, it will not be easy for to win in a non-wave year without some extreme gerrymandering, which is not likely given the amendments that were passed.

---

by: thematt523 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 04:40:37 AM UTC

Some easy targets

I would assume at least some of the gains for the GOP in NY will be erased easily by redistricting and NY losing two seats. Not sure who it will be exactly.

And obviously, with Dems controlling everything in Maryland, Harris will be taken out, if not both Harris and Bartlett, if Dems get creative.

Lots of IL Repubs will be out, hopefully Shock, he annoys me.

Also suspect Rivera in FL will be out with investigations regardless. Oh and Allen West.

And whoever beat Oberstar (forget his name) will be gone. Duluth, in a normal year, won't stand for being represented by a Repub.

21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02

---

by: shocky27 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 04:43:10 AM UTC

Many good points.

I also put forward Bass, Guinta (tarred with ethics issues), SD-AL, and Tipton.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 04:47:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why SD-AL?

The Dakotas are quickly trending R.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:20:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Herseth-Sandlin

acquitted herself well, though. A lot of Duagaard-Sandlin ticket splitting... I'd say there's still hope.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

---

by: nycyoungin @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:22:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good, well-placed hope in fact.

48.14% for Noem, and 45.9% for Herseth Sandlin was the results.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:36:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Daugaard

given that we have Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle, Scott Bruuuuuuuuuuuuuun, and Chip Cravaaaaaaaaaack, why don't we have Dennis Daugaaaaaaard?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 12:29:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Eh, that's mixed.

In 2008, Obama got 44.75% of the vote in SD.  In 2000, Al Gore got 38%.  Also, there was a gubernatorial election there and there was more straight ticket voting.  SHS can make a comeback in a better year.

Finally, the Dakotas have usually favored Republicans.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:31:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Steph Herseth Sandlin

would rather wait for John Thune to run for President and take over his seat if he somehow won or resigned, or would rather wait for Tim Johnson to retire. I don't think she'd settle for her House seat. That's just me.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:36:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree.

She would be a good, strong candidate for either.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:38:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But they also are willing to elect democrats to congress

I say its worth a shot.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:59:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Trending? Not sure about that.

The Dakotas added several Dems to their state legislatures in 2006 and came within double-digits of voting for a Democratic presidential candidate in 2008 - a far cry from the huge Bush wins in '00 and '04. I'm not sure that the Republican success in 2010 represents a "trend" as much as an "event". I have no reason to believe that the states' long tradition of ticket-splitting won't re-emerge in upcoming cycles.

29, Male, Dem, NY-20  

---

by: BK in the HV @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 18:09:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Farenthold and Canseco

Should be targeted. But their districts could significantly change during redistricting.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

---

by: knickelbein5 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 04:47:20 AM UTC

With Farenthold

they could de-VRA it and remake TX-27 as safe Dem and give one of the new seats to Farenthold that he can win next time.  TX-26 is somewhat different because it was designed that way in order to comply with SCOTUS.  It would be easy to just leave it mostly alone.  Also, Trowaman pushed State Rep. Gallego as a candidate against Canseco.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 04:50:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is exactly what I did with a TX map I'm slowly working on

in regard to the VRA and Farenthold.

---

by: Andrew @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:42:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's exactly the problem

I'm hoping to avoid with this post. Farenthold seems juicy (ohgod did I just write that?), but you never know where he'll end up.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 04:58:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

TX-23

West Texas has a lot of counties that are about one quarter Hispanic.  I could see the GOP removing some of the heavily Hispanic parts of south Bexar county and substituting some conservative West Texas counties while keeping it VRA legit.

---

by: TXMichael @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 14:03:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There are several

California Republicans I would put on that list. But some might be so endangered by the new map that they won't even bother to run (David Dreier seems a likely candidate).

Yeah, redistricting makes this hard.

I think that whatever the map looks like, Lou Barletta will have a tough run.  

---

by: andgarden @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 04:47:22 AM UTC

I'm not sure

they can make a sprawling Reading-Pottsville-Scranton district, packing all Democrats into Holden's. They can mix and match and make Bartletta's into a R+8 district. It can be done.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

---

by: nycyoungin @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 04:52:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

With California, it should not be too hard to see which GOPers are going to have a hard time.

Take my home district for example.  In CA-44, it was Gerrymandered to keep a republican in office, and the only reason Calvert did was because of the Orange County portion of the district.

With this new so-called independent redistricting, they are going to try to keep districts within communities of interest, for example, districts would likely not split cities unnecessarily, with a bigger effort to keep the districts in county lines.  CA-44 as we know it will not exist, and considering that Calvert almost lost in 2008, and lost in the county he resides in (he is from corona which is in riverside county, which his challenger Bill Hedrick won 52-48), but was saved by the orange county portion of his district by a lopsided 63-37.

No matter what they do to Calvert's district, I have a feeling he is toast, unless be decides to become a carpetbagger and tries to run in the district that will house San Clemente/Orange County.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

---

by: daman09 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 15:54:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree that Calvert is toast

Bill Hedrick's 44.3% was actually the best of any challenger to a Republican incumbent in California, better than Ami Bera or Steve Pougnet did in their district's, which seems to indicate that Calvert is potentially vulnerable, with his ethical problems and all.

Male, VA-08

---

by: drobertson @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 18:58:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thinking out loud...

Allen West is the least likely congresscritter to be back; no way his district will be as Republican with the new fair districts law.

I don't know how Tim Walberg's district will be made more Republican. Thad McCotter as well.

If Ohio tries to split up Columbus again, then Stivers is an obvious choice. In an election year, we'll try to take out Chabot again. I think we should go after IN-08 as well.

Sean Duffy is an appealing target, as is Lee Terry. If Nebraska doesn't change the electoral vote splitting law, Obama will target the district, allowing someone like, say, Tom White to win.

We shouldn't give up AR-01 and AR-02 so easily. Causey did relatively well against Crawford. I'd also go after Martha Roby in Alabama, though I don't know how black her district will be. I'd also take a shot at Paul Ryan's district. Nothing would be more demoralizing to the GOP to take out their "wunderkind." Obama should win his district no matter what redistricting does.

Go after Robert Hurt. Charlottesville will see high turnout; why not make a shot for it? Also, go after Joe Wilson, who would have lost if Obama was on the ballot.  

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

---

by: nycyoungin @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 04:50:43 AM UTC

Lee Terry

I agree that he's generically vulnerable, but is Tom White the right candidate to defeat him? His performance last year was rather underwhelming, even given the cycle.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

---

by: Nico @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:12:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah I guess you're right

Maybe if Omaha's mayor gets recalled he'll give it a shot. Terry needs to go.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

---

by: nycyoungin @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:21:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I like all of those suggestions,

assuming the districts don't become insurmountable. I particularly like trying to unseat Paul Ryan, so why not try to do the same to Kevin McCarthy and Eric Cantor?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:56:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ryan yes, Cantor maybe, McCarthy no

I agree that Ryan is definitely vulnerable. Cantor may be vulnerable, too, as he was the only GOP incumbent in VA not to crack 60% this year. But there's a huge difference between Cantor getting 59% and him getting 49%. If the economy rebounds and it's a good year for Dems across the board, then I would go after Cantor. But McCarthy is not going to be beaten in 2012. The redistricting commission will need to draw a compact seat in Kern County, which will make McCarthy's seat slightly less Republican but still pretty safe. That may change within a decade as Kern County is trending Democratic very quickly, but for now any seat drawn within Kern will be Republican.

Male, VA-08

---

by: drobertson @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 19:37:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I believe it.

In fairness, McCarthy strikes me as the least irritating of the three, but that just be because I've seen or heard the least from him. Still, he's one of the turds that was behind the harassment of Bob Etheridge.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 01:56:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ryan would be tough

While Ryan's district is only R+2, I do think it can be improved through redistricting.  I am able to draw a map that extends Moore's district into Racine while making up for that by including a significant chuck of Waukesha county,while not looking quite ugly.   I do not know the PVI, but I can assure you it would be much more Republican.  Additionally, for some reason the Dems have not put up anyone strong against him.  Even in 08 when Obama won his district he had weak opposition.  At least part of the problem is with the closing up of so many factories in that part of the state, especially in his hometown of Janesville, the unions have lost a big chunk of their membership, thereby reducing the power of the union machines.  While there is a really fantastic potential opponent in State Rep Cory Mason, if Racine is removed from the district, I really cannot think of anyone.  

---

by: glame @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 23:02:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even if it's tougher

It's still not completely out of reach. And Ryan and his 'safety hammock' will have to run a new kind of campaign in 2012. Unlike 2008 and 2010, he's now a national GOP figure running in a marginal district with a Democratic president strongly contesting the state. Presumably he's getting massive local coverage for his SOTU response, and Dems can hammer home his differences with Obama as Exhibit A against ticket splitting. If the GOP candidate puts up a weak effort in Wisconsin, it's not hard to imagine a scenario where even a modest Dem candidate can defeat him with a somewhat negative campaign, even in a more conservative district.

And besides, it will give the political media something to chew on, like the campaigns against Bachmann. Getting them to write about attacks on Ryan might help to diminish his 'golden boy' image.

25, PA-10

---

by: Joseph @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 01:39:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed if anything it'll make him

defend all the crazy shit the republican house is gonna pull.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 07:38:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dems

Matheson in Utah, no way rep leg. will allow a dem a marginal seat in R+20 state, salt lake goes 4 ways
In NC Kissell- Charlotte AA's out of district- loses, Miller- suspect Reps will add vote sink with Price- may lose
IN- Donnelly- Gone
MI- Peters and Levin district combined
OH- Sutton and Kucinich combined
Penn- Critz- Gone
TX- Doggett in primary, seat becomes Hispanic, reps go 2-2 in 4 new seats, Faronthold made more Rep
GA- Barrow district goes from 45 AA to 30's
Iowa- Latham and Boswell combined, Latham favored
Missouri- Carnahan will combine with Akin, Akin wins in Lean Rep district
Prob left out a few...

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 04:54:26 AM UTC

The problem with

doing that to Barrow is that the state could be rightfully sued for voter dilution.  Also, Kingston is adamantly against taking one for the team (i.e. taking in Democratic areas), so that complicates it further.

It's also more likely they combine Carnahan and Emerson.

Finally, they tried to make Matheson a district he couldn't win last time and failed.  What makes this any different?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:00:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Matheson

Easy- Matheson won 51-45 solely off salt lake city portion of district. salt lake is now split 3 ways. Say new seat takes half or even a third of Matheson salt lake portion, you do the math... This one isnt even worth discussion...

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:05:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

They could have made it

R+20 last time, but didn't for some reason.  Someone needs to map this.  Roguemapper could.  It's a small state.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:11:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Utah

I'll give it a shot sometime soon.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:42:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

SLC is growing heavily

And is becoming more Dem. Is cracking it 4 ways enough to dilute it while keeping all R district above R+10 or so?

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

---

by: knickelbein5 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:07:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's still an R+20 state

You could have 4 R+20 districts.

The trouble is that Matheson currently represents an R+15 district, so you can't make it that much more Republican.  I still firmly believe the Utah GOP will give it the old college try.  The risk of Utah becoming a dummymander is minisculely small, even if it continues to grow more Democratic over the decade.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

---

by: Marcus @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 16:05:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually, what I'd do.

Put him in an R+4 district or so that is SLC based. He'll be primaried- or conventioned, and you'll certainly beat any other Democrat there still.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

---

by: Twohundertseventy @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 16:36:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That would be devious

Though I think R+6 would be closer to the sweet spot for that, given the long term trends in the Salt Lake area.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

---

by: Marcus @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 18:41:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Because clearly next election cycle will be exactly the same as this one

After all, you have "the math."

---

by: LVDem @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 07:15:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't question johndemetre

He is psychic. He even knows what the SC congressional map will look like. Charlie Cook came to him in a dream and showed him.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 12:39:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Uh...

Ok...

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 17:36:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hhhm...

Do 20 year olds need to get permission from mommy before they post on the message board... Hhhm...

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 17:44:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

flaming

You haven't been here long but one of the hard and fast rules of this site is no flaming. The other is no policy talk.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 17:49:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

flaming

True but firstly sapelcovits comment has no place here and no flaming will be needed

---

by: SC1 @ Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 03:31:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Could a Sam Graves Senate run

in Missouri affect redistricting at all there?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:18:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not Likely

GOP legislature is going after Carnahan and to override Nixon's veto they'll need 3 votes from Dems AA State Reps. Word is they have those votes in their pockets,but it means Clay & Cleaver get protected.

Cleaver is still going to have a tougher race, because his district needs to add about 150k people and there are only GOP areas around KC, still I think the 5th will expand east to take in all of Jackson county and maybe a shade of the norther counties or more of Cass to get population right. This shores up Hartzler and whoever holds Graves district.

The only way this could affect it is if Nixon tries to cut a deal to give Carnahan a better chance in say a fair fight district with JoAnne Emerson, the alternative then would be to combine Hartzler's 4th district with Cleaver's 5th and put Independence into Graves. I think this is very unlikely since it basically takes the 6-2 map the GOP will draw and instead make it a 5-1-2 map, hardly a good deal for the Dems.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

---

by: notpjorourke @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 16:54:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How about

Mike McIntyre or Heath Shuler? Asheville could be taken out of NC-11 and split up between the districts of Patrick McHenry and Virginia Foxx. Each of those districts would be around R+10 or 11, and Shuler's would move to R+9 or R+10. That would take him out. I see the GOP targeting 3 Democratic seats in NC. Also, how about Mike Michaud? Is there any way for the new Republican majority in Maine to shift the PVI of ME-2 a few more points to the right? (I'm aware Maine doesn't redistrict until 2012).

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:01:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Shuler

He won by 54-44 in a bad year against a well-funded candidate.  Moving his district from R+6 to R+9 translates to a narrow 51-49 win for him using 2010 as a model (RRH showed a possible map with this one at R+7).  And considering 2012 will be a better year, he can win it and become more entrenched.  As for McIntyre, its shoved in the corner of the state.  If they try to move it northwards, they give an opening for Kissell to run again (RRH tried to gerrymander this without helping Kissell and could get no higher than R+7, two clicks above what it is now).

As for ME, it has only 2 districts.  If they try to hurt Michaud, they end up shoring up Pingree.  Also, Michaud is very well-liked.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:09:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree with most of your points,

however, I wasn't asking about Maine for the purpose of beating Michaud. Maine has a split electoral vote, and if a Republican wins ME-2 in a Presidential race, that's a cool electoral vote (like Obama in NE-1). Also, if Michaud were to run for Senate or Governor, if his seat is weakened, I think it could potentially be a pick up opportunity for the GOP.

Also, Jeff Miller really was an uninspiring candidate. I think taking out Asheville could really hurt Shuler, and his vote against repealing Obamacare will haunt him in this deeply conservative district. That's just my take.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:16:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haunt him?

He voted against it in the first place, but doesn't want to repeal the whole frigging thing because that would throw the baby out with the bathwater in his view.  Besides, in 2012, the main issues will be different and the electorate will be more broad.

And uninspiring candidates won in 2010 as well.  Cravaack, Farenthold, Boswell, and Rivera.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:21:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mostly true,

however I'd call Cravaack's story very inspiring. As a Republican, he is my favorite freshman. I guess time will tell on what goes down in NC.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:33:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ok, I take that one back.

Sorry, wrong person.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:34:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry for

hitting Cravaack.  I didn't know much about him but I listed him because I thought he was only in because Oberstar was worn out and didn't campaign well.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:37:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No worries and no need for apologies.

We all have differences of opinions. I agree with you that Rivera and Farenthold were very uninspiring. Literally no one thought Farenthold would actually win, not even Blake himself. RCP didn't even list the race as competitive until mid to late October.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:40:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have learned of nothing inspiring about Chip Cravaack

If there was anything, I would have heard about it at some point by now from the local media, but all it is wowee he toppled Oberstar.  He was simply in the right place at the right time and a potted plant could have come close to winning.  And I am very biased by knowing the area he is from as my neck of the woods was very similar.  It's like I "know" that man and that I went to high school with all of his asshole kids.  (There would be seven of them because they're Catholic and condoms are abortion.)

---

by: Andrew @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:57:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Still have to give him credit for the epic win.

but i'm pretty sure he won't survive another term.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:03:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NC

Taken Ashville out breaks up western NC, always been one district, already like an r+8 district will make it more rep on the margins but Shuler will prob still win, but when he leaves, R favored
Basically same with McIntrye, will be make marginally more Rep
I think Elmers is strenghened and Kissell and Miller are targeted, this turns it into 8-5 with a potential for 11-3 when Mcintrye or Shuler go

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:10:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly.

Once Shuler and McIntyre retire, those seats will go GOP.  More reason for them to stay on.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:15:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's impossible to target Miller

He lives in Raleigh, and Raleigh will surely anchor a Democratic seat, no matter how you dice it. Now, NC-13 will all but surely become a compact district in Raleigh proper, but that makes no difference to Miller's reelection prospects.

Price will be in the neighboring Research Triangle vote sink, however that's designed. Actually, it's not hard to project at all in my view. The Triad/Triangle Democrats are concentrated in the stretch from Greensboro to Raleigh. The population there supports precisely two seats, ergo: NC-04 Price from Greensboro to Durham & NC-13 Miller in Raleigh.

Beyond that, the Republicans will have no problem splitting Asheville to take out Shuler - so long as McHenry agrees. That's exactly what they wanted to do in their alternative maps in 2001. Why should they hesitate now?

The voters in the southern tier of the Piedmont west of Charlotte are far different than the voters in the Mountains, and even more so from the voters in downtown Asheville. Extrapolating the 'crossover' vote from Shuler's current district to them is an error, so going from, say, R+7 to R+9 does not mean that Shuler gives up merely two points if said voters are in, say, Gastonia versus Marion..

Hardly anyone in Gastonia will vote for a Democrat from Waynesville.

The lynchpin to getting a 9-4 GOP delegation is McIntyre. The most effective way to get McIntyre is to toss his home in another district and give him the shaft with Onslow County. There are two ways to do that - the more effective way is put him in Sue Myrick's district anchored by the eastern Charlotte suburbs; the less effective way is put him and Kissell in a heavily Republican district.

If you do a balls-to-the-wall gerrymander, it's fairly easy. If you try to make relatively compact districts that substantiallly follow county lines it's more challenging.

The following map does it in the more challenging manner:

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:39:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What happens to

Mel Watt's district? I know that much of it consisted of Charlotte, but what about the parts that stretched up to Winston Salem and Greensboro? How will they affect the new PVI? Also, what does this map do for Renee Ellmers?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

---

by: TokenRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:43:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Stats

NC-01 (Butterfield-D): 58%O / 41%M
NC-02 (Ellmers-R): 45%O / 54%M
NC-03 (Jones-R): 44%O / 55%M
NC-04 (Price-D): 67%O / 32%M
NC-05 (Foxx-R): 42%O / 57%M
NC-06 (Coble-R): 43%O / 56%M
NC-07 (McIntyre-D): 46%O / 53%M
NC-08 (Kissell-D): 41%O / 58%M
NC-09 (Myrick-R): 45%O / 54%M
NC-10 (McHenry-R): 42%O / 57%M
NC-11 (Shuler-D): 42%O / 57%M
NC-12 (Watt-D): 67%O / 33%M
NC-13 (Miller-D): 63%O / 36%M

McIntyre is actually in NC-09 on this map, and this is 'wasting' way too many Republicans on Kissell. It won't take that many too defeat him, so that's one of several reasons why I haven't settled on a final NC map (I haven't worked with my NC maps in a while).

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:52:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rogue

Good Map, Think 8-5 with McIntrye or Shuler hanging on for now, but you might have it
Also, can you come up with a 6-1 SC map with the new district centered on Horry county and the Pee Dee, this is what I have heard the R's will propose, would like to see it

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:57:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is there a reason

to resist pushing NC-1 into Durham? Not a criticism - just a question.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

---

by: shamlet @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 13:50:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

As you push it into Durham you shed area in the eastern part of the state that makes either Jones or Ellmers more vulnerable.

One way to avoid that is to maintain the choppy district lines, but the GOP has in the past challenged the NC-01 boundaries as well (though never as aggressively as NC-12).

The short of it is, taking the NC-01 lines closer to the present boundaries gives the neighboring GOPers a bit of a boost.  So, if you think that will be the GOP priority, then roll with it (I can see them doing that). It simply wasn't part of my self-imposed restrictions.

If you don't do that, then I've already packed the Democrats as effectively as possible from Greensboro to Greenville.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 15:15:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I might add

The original 1991 NC-01 was also challenged and then revised after Shaw v Reno. The current version was upheld in Hunt v Cromartie as being "narrowly tailored" to apply the provisions of the VRA.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 16:12:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looks very good.

9-4 is what it seems that it will be, but with sporting chances for both Shuler and McIntyre.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:45:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There's a diary on RRH

that turns Miller's district into R+7 or something.

---

by: tietack @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:46:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But it also

made Shuler and McIntyre's districts R+7.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:47:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was responding to user roguemapper's message title, n/t

---

by: tietack @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:55:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

I'd have to see the map to comment on it, but if what they're doing is calling some other district "Miller's district" and then leaving a vacant seat in the Triangle, then they aren't eliminating Miller.

There is no way I can imagine anything less than two Dem seats in the stretch from Greensboro to Raleigh, one Dem seat in the northeast Coastal region, and one in Charlotte. If someone can map it out, I definitely would like to see it.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:55:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If I remember right

(you should read the diary / map for yourself), they packed triangle area Ds in David Price's district -- making it something like D+25.

---

by: tietack @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:57:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NC

I remember this too, looked pretty compelling, thats why I referenced it in my comments but rogue's map is also compelling!

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:59:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK

What did they do with the Democrats in Greensboro? (A preclearance county, I might add.)

And, I have no idea what "RRH" is. I've seen it mentioned before, and can guess it's another blog, but don't know what it stands for.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:00:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It means

"Red Racing Horses", the name for the Repub-leaning alternative to SSP created only last week.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:01:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK, got it

So, here's the map, right?

This map keeps Mel Watt's winding district. The GOP has said they will certainly not do that. If you compact NC-12 into Charlotte proper, then you have to put those Democrats somewhere.

Ergo, you cannot create a single Triad/Triangle Dem vote sink.

This map doesn't do so either, NC-12 is the Greensboro vote sink & NC-04 is the Triangle vote sink here.

Neither Shuler nor McIntyre are likely to have significant problems under this map.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:11:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Quoting from the RRH diary

District 13: Brad Miller (tan)    McCain 52-47     R+7  We drop the hammer on Brad Miller. His district becomes a full twelve points more Republican. We do this by removing all of the Democratic wards of Raleigh, removing the district entirely from Greensboro, give him the rest of Alamance County (which are Republican precincts), and absorbs some conservative rural locations. This is the primary beneficiary of the 4th becoming super Democratic and the 6th becoming less safe. Miller got 55 percent last year against token opposition. He would be in serious trouble in this district.

btw, I think you may have misread the RRH diary w/r/t the proposed new map -- in aquamarine, Watt's district is almost compact. (If I'm seeing aquamarine correctly, I know I don't read colors in the same way as my wife does.)

---

by: tietack @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:20:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Quote

District 12: Mel Watt  (aqua-marine)   Obama 73-26     D+20  The famous (or infamous) "Interstate district" that was the basis for court challenges to the concept of majority-minority districts. The 12th had to be redrawn in the past because it was such a blatant racial gerrymander. In this case, we decide to add some precincts in Charlotte and remove some areas in the northern parts of the district. Interestingly, this would be a slightly less Democratic district than the new 4th District, in spite of having many more African-Americans in the district.

This barely changes Watt's district at all. The Republicans have said definitively they will not do that. If they're lying, then that's another matter altogether.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:26:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Have Rs lied before? ;)

I'm sure a shift in redistricting strategy can be spun.

---

by: tietack @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:28:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK

You'll get no argument from me.

I'll just say that I'd love to see Howard Coble's conniption fit if they give him this NC-06 district. LOL

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:32:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And Ellmers

How do they pack enough voters into one district (Price) while strengthening Ellmers, or did they just give her the shaft?

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:01:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's actually very easy to make NC-13 Republican

The problem is that your map eliminated the serpentine NC-12, which is protected by the VRA and eats up a lot of Greenboro. All that is necessary is to remove most of Raleigh from the district, turn NC-4 into a major vote sink, and grab some territory from NC-5. I did a map that has NC-13 as 55% McCain.

As for compactness, NC-13 as presently constituted is an abomination. It looks like the flying spaghetti monster.

---

by: InRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:40:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NC12/VRA

The NC-12 district is most emphatically not protected by the VRA. It was ruled a racial gerrymander in Shaw v Reno. The Democrats swore up in down in Hunt v Cromartie that they drew the final 90s version using only voting data, and the Supreme Court chose to go along based on some inscrutable O'Connor 'totality of circumstances' analysis.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:46:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Technically

Another version of NC-12 was ruled unconstitutional. It stretched from Charlotte to Durham. But yeah, I forgot about the recent SCOTUS ruling that plurality white districts aren't VRA protected.

But in any case, the NC GOP would never eliminate NC-12. It would probably lead to rabblerousers calling the NC GOP racist. More importantly, it would weaken surrounding Republicans for no reason.

---

by: InRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 07:11:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm

I'm not sure what land of rainbow and butterflies you live in, but here in North Carolina the NC GOP could care less whether anyone calls it racist.

State Senator Bob Rucho (R-Mecklenburg) who is in charge of NC redistricting has said that they intend to compact NC-12. The district has gone to the Supreme Court four times due to Republican efforts to eliminate it. No GOP alternative offered in 1991 or 2001 ever had anything remotely resembling NC-12, and I have never heard of any NC Republican that does not detest NC-12.

Perhaps they will have some kind of epiphany, but I know of nothing in the past actions or statements of the NC GOP that should lead any observer to think they will keep the I-85 district.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 07:50:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why did Democrats draw that district in the first place?

How does it advantage Democrats?

I always thought NC-12 was a Republican gerrymander packing blacks from Charlotte and the Research Triangle.

Apparently not...but I still don't get why the district exists from a political perspective. Why not just create a compact, Democratic-leaning district based in Charlotte? It does the same thing, and it's a whole lot less uglier.

http://mypolitikal.com/

---

by: Inoljt @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 08:11:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The DOJ denied preclearance

The original map drawn by the 1991 legislature included only one majority-minority district in the northeast Coastal region. The DOJ denied preclearance on the basis that a second majority-minority district must be created no matter what. The initial NC-12 was the result.

So, yes, NC-12 originated as a Republican scheme on the part of the Bush 41 DOJ to pack Democrats. It was later defended and maintained due to the powerful position of the black community within NC Democratic politics.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 08:17:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

PS

I should amend one thing for precision. After the DOJ denied preclearance the GOP did propose maps with a district similar to NC-12, but that's simply because it's the only way to create a second majority-minority seat in NC. What they actually cared about was how the rest of the map would look.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 12:39:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The alternate way they could do this...

Is to have NC-1 snake into Raleigh and Durham to pick up black neighborhoods, and turn NC-13 into the "white progressive" district).  Then NC-4 could me made hard right fairly easily.  

Theoretically this could get them to 3-10 gerrymander.  But I think to counterbalance they'd want a vote sink around Fayatteville.  It's pretty easy to draw a majority-minority seat there, and this way you could argue to the African-American community the gerrymander actually increases their political representation.  

That said, a lot depends upon whether, as you say, the Republicans want somewhat compact borders, and the interpretation of the VRA by all parties.  

---

by: eschaton @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 15:34:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Republicans

Have said repeatedly that they want to apply the Whole Counties provision of the state constitution (which legally only covers legislative redistricting) 'as much as is reasonable' to congressional redistricting as well.

Now, if the GOP is lying I'd hardly be surprised, but that's what they've claimed they want to do.

---

by: roguemapper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 15:41:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why

go after Doggett again?  They tried last time with the "fajita strip" and the entire map was struck down by SCOTUS and this was redrawn along with TX-26 and a few others.  Do they really need to learn again that the stove is hot?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:14:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Doggett

Turning his district into a Hispanic majority district kills two birds with one stone. The reps need to add 2 or 3 new minority distircts and have 4 new seats. Take one existing Dem (Doggett) and make it minority and now 1 or 2 are needed. So reps end up with 2 or maybe 3 of the new 4 districts.

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:21:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The fajita strip

was also a plot to kill two birds with one stone.  Also, Austin is growing fast and the surrounding GOPers are wary of this.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:34:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Doggett

You might be right on that, anyhow think 23-9 prob goes to 25-11 or 26-12

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:37:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

hahah lol

keep on dreaming nycyoungin. all the Republican freshman will probably will be put into safe districts.

---

by: ramacher @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 04:57:18 AM UTC

With the exception of

West (new props passed and his district will be the poster child for its implementation).
Arkansas seats (Dem legislature will play around and make at least one more seat Dem-favored).

Michigan has rules on redistricting, also, so gerrymandering is not quite as ugly.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:02:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I really don't see how my post was particularly funny...

I have reasoning behind all my suggestions. You add nothing to the conversation by just laughing it off. Let me continue to justify.

Allen West cannot possibly be put in safer district. The district is as Republican as you are going to get down there. Plus, the boundaries cannot even come close to what they are now due to the new referendum.

Walberg is already in a Republican-leaning district, as is McCotter. They cannot get stronger territory because the state is already gerrymandered. In a presidential year, I see us beating Walberg, though McCotter would be slightly tougher.

Columbus is the only part of Ohio that's actually growing, and Columbus is becoming bluer and bluer every year. By splitting up Columbus, they risk dummymandering central Ohio, leaving Democrats with opportunities in Stivers' new district and possibly Tiberi's. They might even draw a circle around Columbus, protecting others. Unlikely, so I think Stivers might be in trouble.

It's hard to make a rural Democratic vote sink in upper WI. Though, yes, Duffy's district will be made more Republican, Walker and the legislature have to make sure that they don't mess with Ribble's district too much.

I already explained my reasoning with NE-02.

We need to win in the South. Causey and Bright put up solid numbers all things considered. With Democrats in full control in AR, they could draw a solid 2-2 map. In AL, it's unclear what the VRA will do, but Bright could return and win.

Paul Ryan is annoying and we should make a run regardless. I can't imagine the economically hit Milwaukee area feels like they're represented with Ryan. I mean, how often is he home? Could be a redux of Liddy Dole.

So, next time, please consider my post before rudely laughing it off. I put thought into my comments.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

---

by: nycyoungin @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:19:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

This was not really an okay comment.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:24:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Quayle and Gosar, to a lesser extent Schweikert

I don't have to go over Quayle's many moments of weaksauce, and if redistricting puts him in a tougher district then he's probably in serious trouble, perhaps from a rematch by Jon Hulbred or a run by term-limited Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon (hey, depending on redistricting, we could get even someone much more desirable then those two; Rep. Kysten Sinema has a nice ring to it...). Regardless, he might be in serious trouble from a primary challenger in a less crowded field, perhaps from one of the stronger 2010 also-rans like Jim Waring or Steve Moak.

Someone who has gotten much less attention but I think might be vulnerable is Paul Gosar. Despite Ann Kirkpatrick folding like a cheap suit in the race last year, and the general turn against Democrats by rural voters being felt strongly in Arizona, Gosar only managed to clock in at just under 50%. I don't know that redistricting will do him any favors; he'll probably keep Yavapai County (always essential to Republican wins) but will probably only shave off parts of Republican Pinal County for equally Republican parts of Mohave or Cochise County and leave it at that. To boot, one essential part of Rick Renzi's winning strategy was that he was willing to work his ass off for the normally-Democratic Navajo Nation, which really paid off (Renzi actually won the Navajo Nation in 2004 and still had a strong showing there in 2006). Gosar hasn't show any interest in engaging the Navajo's in the same way.

I'll throw in David Schweikert as well. He's much stronger than these other two, but has the most Democratic district of the three and will have to deal with a surge in ASU turnout related to Obama (even if Obama doesn't seriously contest the state) and possibly some rough redistricting (note that Obama actually won this district if you cut out Scottsdale and Fountain Hills; of course Schweikert lives in Fountain Hills so if that happens, he could run in whatever district contains his base and leave a slightly Democratic seat open in the West Valley, and I'll take that option too).  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

---

by: Nico @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:07:07 AM UTC

dropoff

Dropoff in the state's districts from 2008 to 2010:

1 (Gosar) 279k > 227k 19%
2 (Franks) 338k > 267k 18%
3 (Quayle) 275k > 208k 24%
4 (Pastor) 124k > 92k 26%
5 (Schweikert) 280k > 212k 24%
6 (Flake) 334k > 249k 25%
7 (Grijalva) 196k > 159k 19%
8 (Giffords) 328k > 284k 13%

Looks like Schweikert's district might be more prone to an election-year swing than Gosar's. Within Gosar's district, blue Apache and red Yavapai both dropped about 17%, but the other blue base in Coconino was down 27% so his opponenet may have some upside there. Quayle's district might also see a big swing.

The dropoff in Giffords' district is the lowest I've seen yet for a seat that was contested in 2008.

41, Ind, CA-05

---

by: sacman701 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 20:51:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What about Jon Salazar's district?

Can he re-run?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:11:06 AM UTC

He has a job with Governor Hickenlooper and said no.

But there is still a good bench.  State Rep. Sal Pace for instance.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:12:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Steve Pearce

NM-02 had the wildest swings in recent elections. D-R shares : 40-60 in 2006, 55-45 in 2008, 45-55 in 2010. With former Blue Dog Harry Teague out of the picture and Pearce turned into a birther-teabagger the seat should be a prime target. The district is also directly across the state border from AZ-08 and the shockwave from the Tucson shooting was felt there. 2012 won't be a good year for teabaggers in NM. Or so I hope anyway... Any candidate should also ride on Bingaman's coattails. Jeff is really popular all over the state and has shown every intention of running again next year.

31, Dem - NM-03 currently in France

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by: Gunslinger @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:24:59 AM UTC

Question.

   Is there any chance we can get Bill McCamley? I was disappointed when he lost the primary to Teague, even though Teague turned out better than I thought.

24, Male, GA-05

---

by: cilerder86 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:36:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

^^^^^^ THIS! SECOND!

I agree on ALL accounts, Teague's performance and the awesomeness of McCamley.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 07:49:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He seems too liberal to me

for this district, which, by far is the most conservative district in New Mexico. Teague won it because he both wasn't a liberal AND ran in very good year in open district. To win it again Democrats need similar situation AND similar candidate.

---

by: smoltchanov @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 08:39:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NM-02

Sorry but I completely disagree with you. I don't think that Pearce will be going anywhere anytime soon as sad as that sounds. The southeastern part of the state (Hobbs, Artesia, Carlsbad, Roswell, Clovis, etc.) votes like the Texas panhandle and their economy is driven in large part by ranching and oil. There just aren't enough votes in Las Cruces and Silver City to offset them right now. Until the Latino voting percentage goes up to offset the conservative white voters in those communities that district will lean Republican for a long time. McCamley is a bad fit to win the district barring external factors.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

---

by: Cool_Arrow @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 14:48:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why not ?

Pearce lost 5 points between 2006 and 2010. Would he have lost the seat had he run in 2008 ? In a Dem wave year and with a Blue Dog Dem I think probably yes. Let's assume that 2012 is also a wave year with both Obama and Bingaman on top of the ballot. Surely we have a decent shot at retaking the seat. Just IMO of course ;-)

31, Dem - NM-03 currently in France

---

by: Gunslinger @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 18:41:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wish you were right but I don't see that happening.....

1) There just are not enough votes in Las Cruces and other democratic leaning (read Hispanic voters) to offset the "Little Texas Counties". Those are extremely conservative especially in relation to the entire state. The Latino vote share would need to tremendously grow in order to offset those voting blocs.

2) Pearce isn't exactly a beloved figure given that he clearly wanted a promotion in 2008 and came back to NM-02 as a backup plan in 2010. Teague was also a very well funded person and hailed from the "Little Texas" part of the district. He is personally worth millions and gave tons of money to his campaign. Not many others out there will have that luxury and Pearce is also wealthy which surely will scare some opponents. That said barring an implosion I don't see Pearce going down anytime soon.

3) Bingaman isn't the type that will give coattails but Obama would. Bingaman has been around for so long that he is very well respected that many Republicans (guessing 30%) will vote for him but other Republican candidates. Bingaman really gives people no reason to dislike him, I wish more were like him. FWIW I do think that Bingaman will run for re-election this year and Martin Heinrich will have to wait another 6 years for a Senate seat to open up.

FWIW while I live in VA-08 now, I grew up in NM-02 hence my "knowledge".  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

---

by: Cool_Arrow @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 18:53:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA GOPers.

 In a presidential year, Pennsylvania Democrats are much stronger. We should target Meehan, Gerlach, Dent, and Murphy. All of them are vulnerable, I think, regardless of redistricting.

24, Male, GA-05

---

by: cilerder86 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:35:21 AM UTC

Reps

NY- Prob Berkle but Maybe Hanna- Also A Dem Seat in NYC
Maryland- Doesnt look good for Harris
Florida- West will be a problem, thinks Dems take that and split new seats 1-1 so 19-8 rep
NJ- Either Runyan or Lance, but maybe Northern Dem instead-50/50 D/R
Ill- Killing Field- 11-8 Rep to 12-6 Dem
That's About It I think

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:53:11 AM UTC

I saw a good

13-5 map of IL here and that may be what they end up with.  Someone even did a good 14-4 map, but I can't remember who and when and it seems over the top.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

---

by: LookingOver @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 05:56:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

Saw that too, it could be 13-5 but I think they will settle for 12-6 (have even heard 11-7) to be on the safe side but yeah 13- 5 is possible.

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:02:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

FYI

Good ridistricting blog called Drawing the Lines http://russwalker.tumblr.com/

---

by: johndemetre @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:08:18 AM UTC

Florida

We won't know the makeup or shape of the districts but central/South Florida are going to be important. I'm more optomoistic then most probably about Florida cause I think floridans will have Scott fatigue and Nelson is popular and will help somewhat down ballot. If Obama is doing well in the state then we should be able to win at least a few house seats. West and Rivera are the low hanging fruit but there likely will be more.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:11:01 AM UTC

Rep. Cravaack

With former rep. Tony Sertich out of the running, we have a wide open field and a big bench.  I imagine the DCCC has been calling all the state legislators from the Iron Range area asking who wants to be a Congresscritter.  State Rep. Ruckavina could be interesting, or senate minority leader Bakk.

---

by: Andrew @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:28:46 AM UTC

Before anything else,

let me ask how likely it is that districts that aren't in states that are gaining or losing a seat will change?

Assuming these districts don't change too much, here's a few that might be worth looking at:

-Alabama: 02, 03, 05

We won all of those recently, even if Griffith did switch parties. We probably aren't going to get very liberal Democrats in any of these districts, but that's probably okay.

-Kansas: 02, 03, 04

Upon first glance, I don't think it's possible to make any of them drastically more Republican without making the others more Democratic. But even if it is, would they want to change them?

-Kentucky 02, 04

These have very high PVIs, but the Democrats got kind of close in 02 in 2008. The problem is that this district has never not reelected an incumbent in its history, but why not try to make history? They didn't get that close in 04, but if 2012 is a better year than 2010 and we find a good candidate, perhaps something can be done.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 06:50:41 AM UTC

I don't really see it happening in any of those three states

Hell, Rep. Chandler was lucky to hold his seat last year.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

---

by: SaoMagnifico @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 07:00:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, he was.

Again, those are just suggestions. (I've been meaning to do a diary on this topic, but until I find more detailed information about a few districts, it's hard to come by.) The fulfill the first requirement of the expanding the map exercise: the Democrats received at least 30 percent of the vote in at least one of the last two elections. Maybe there's no workable coalition, but I don't think that is entirely clear.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 07:12:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, if we can get Bobby Bright to run again

After all, he only lost 49-51.  In an R+16 district.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 06:46:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And in uberrepublican year

In some sense it seems to me that Bright ran one of the strongest, may be even the strongest campaign of all Democratic candidates (taking into account the character of the district) in 2010. But, alas, what was barely enough in 2008 was barely not enough in 2010. The year was that much tougher...

---

by: smoltchanov @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 07:45:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

---

by: b.j. @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 16:08:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

KY-02 and 04 are both fools' gold

Barring some sort of disastrous scandal dragging down the incumbents in those seats, they're pretty much off the table. The Dems tried the Second in '08 and the Fourth in '06 (with the district's former congressman as their candidate, no less!) and still couldn't pull it off in either.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 07:04:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Plus either would have been a Dan Boren clone.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

---

by: D in FL @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 18:22:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You are unlikely to get anything better

in either of them. If the most liberal candidate who can win is "Dsn Boren clone" - take "Dan Boren clone"!...

---

by: smoltchanov @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 19:37:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

THIS ^

---

by: tietack @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 19:51:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry for typo)))

---

by: smoltchanov @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 20:02:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't feel very confident about any seats in Indiana

Maybe Brad Ellsworth could make a comeback in IN-8 if it looks similar to how it does now, but we don't yet know whether Larry Bucshon is going to be as awesomely incompetent an incumbent as John Hostettler was.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

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by: Bob Bobson @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 07:00:26 AM UTC

My Top 5 Most Vulnerable list

1. Allen West- His current district is too liberal for a firebrand like him. He'll be in much worse shape after the redistricting.

2. Bob Dold- He'll probably wind up with a D+10 or worse district.

3. Bobby Schilling- His district is a malfunctioning vote sink. There's no reason for Democrats not to eliminate it. I don't think the Illinois redistricting will be as devastating to Republicans as some people on SSP think. Two or three casualties at most, IMHO.

4. Ann Buerkle- I was surprised she won at all, frankly.

5. Charlie Bass- He doesn't seem to be well-liked in his Democrat-tilting district.

There are a ton of targets for Democrats, but a lot of them (like Steve Stivers, Richard Hanna, Lou Barletta, Blake Farenthold) will probably get safer districts. This isn't the same environment for Congressional Dems as in 2006 and 2008, where they could easily capture Republican seats that were R+5 or lower.

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by: InRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 07:03:02 AM UTC

Illinois will surely have most 2010 GOP gains there wiped out

With other Republican states going for aggressive gerrymanders, Illinois Democrats will not play soft with the map.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

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by: DrPhillips @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 07:25:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh well David you tried

And instead the thread got hijacked into another what should/will/might happen in redistricting conversation.

To answer your original question my thoughts are as follows:
NH-01, NH-02 - agree with your thinking.
MT-AL if Rehberg runs for Senate.
AZ-01 - no matter what happens in redistricting this district wont change much, is bluing and the 2008 mcCain margin is distorted by the home state factor.
AR-01/02 - One of these two must be gettable after redistricting especially as we control the maps!
MD-01 - Ireespective of what redistricting does this one should be ripe. Harris is a nutter. Kratovil can beat him in 2012.
NM-02 - Again i wouldve thought that no matter what redistricting throws up this is a potential battlefeld.
Upstate New York - There will be vulnerable GOP freshmen here come hell or high water.

A very short list but that just points out how critical redistricting is :)

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

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by: benawu @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 11:36:46 AM UTC

Here is the top 50 in terms of "vulnerability index"

if I am calculating it right.

1. NY-25 - Buerkle
2. IL-10 - Dold
3. NH-02 - Bass
4. NV-03 - Heck
5. MN-08 - Cravaack
6. WA-08 - Reichert
7. IL-08 - Walsh
8. TX-27 - Farenthold
9. NJ-03 - Runyan
10. NC-02 - Ellmers
11. PA-11 - Barletta
12. PA-08 - Fitzpatrick
13. WI-07 - Duffy
14. WA-03 - Herrera
15. OH-01 - Chabot
16. IL-17 - Schilling
17. FL-22 - West
18. MI-07 - Walberg
19. PA-07 - Meehan
20. IL-14 - Hultgren
21. OH-06 - Johnson
22. NY-24 - Hanna
23. NY-19 - Hayworth
24. PA-06 - Gerlach
25. NY-13 - Grimm
26. WI-08 - Ribble
27. TX-23 - Canseco
28. PA-15 - Dent
29. NH-01 - Guinta
30. OH-15 - Stivers
31. NY-20 - Gibson
32. CO-03 - Tipton
33. VA-05 - Hurt
34. OH-12 - Tiberi
35. CA-45 - Bono-Mack
36. IL-11 - Kinzinger
37. MI-01 - Benishek
38. AZ-05 - Schweikert
39. CA-03 - Lungren
40. PA-03 - Kelly
41. FL-25 - Rivera
42. MI-11 - McCotter
43. FL-12 - Ross
44. OH-16 - Renacci
45. MN-03 - Paulsen
46. FL-08 - Webster
47. AZ-01 - Gosar
48. IL-06 - Roskam
49. VA-02 - Rigell
50. NJ-07 - Lance

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 13:04:32 PM UTC

All of these districts seem like they could change significantly

in redistricting except NH-01 and NH-02.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 13:19:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But:

You're forgetting one other NY district: NY-19, Nan Hayworth.

We really should target Hayworth in '12 because she could be vulnerable in a good year. Perhaps John Hall could make a comeback?

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by: jsrosa @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 14:20:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

she's on there at no. 23

I would welcome a Hall comeback.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 14:49:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hall

He lost by just 5 points, which should put him in good shape for 2012 unless the district is made much more red. He'll be 64, though.

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 17:03:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gerlach, etc.

If I were the Dems I'd be leery of anyone who withstood the 2008 wave, as there will almost certainly be less generalized anger toward Republicans even if Obama cruises to an easy win. I think Gerlach and Dent in particular will be bad targets especially as the Reeps will draw the PA map. I can see keeping Roskam, Bono, and Lungren on the list only because the CA and IL districts are likely to get blown up in redistricting.

Likewise I think the Reeps will only be able to take those Dem seats that they redraw to make much more red. Connolly (VA), Chandler (KY), and T Bishop (NY) had the narrowest wins of any remaining Dems. None will have to deal with R-drawn maps, and I expect all 3 to win by at least 5 points if not 10.  

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 16:40:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Joe Heck should be around number 40, not number 3.

He will be a vote sink, as Nevada will go for a 2-2 map.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

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by: TokenRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 17:58:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My list

only takes into account 2008 margin of victory and the partisan lean of the current district.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 23:40:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2012 Targets

I've already made a list, but of that list, here's who I deem to be the most vulnerable:

AZ-3: Ben Quayle
AR-1: Rick Crawford
CA-3: Dan Lungren
CA-44: Ken Calvert
CA-50: Brian Bilbray
FL-22: Allen West
FL-25: David Rivera
IL-10: Bob Dold
IL-13: Judy Biggert
IL-17: Bobby Schilling
MN-8: Chip Craavack
NH-2: Charlie Bass
NJ-2: Frank LoBiondo
NJ-3: Jon Runyan
NY-25: Ann Marie Buerkle
OH-12: Pat Tiberi
OH-15: Steve Stivers
PA-15: Charlie Dent
TX-27: Blake Farenthold

Of these, I'd say 6(Buerkle, Craavack, Dold, Farenthold, Schilling, and West) are already gone for the GOP. Dold and Frank LoBiondo represent districts equally or more Democratic than what Mike Castle represented. We can win if someone other than Seals(IL-10) and stronger than Kurkowski(NJ-2). Bilbray is possible if someone other than Busby runs. Come 2012, a soda cap could crush Buerkle and Farenthold. Dent and Tiberi under-performed in their races in 2010. 2012 will surely be more Democratic than 2010.

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)

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by: Merlin @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 13:33:38 PM UTC

FL-22

I wouldn't say West has the most in trouble, only because his state is gaining two seats.  He doesn't really live in his district anyway, and I think if there's a new district somewhere close, he can migrate over. He's a sitting Rep. who didn't seem to have too much history with his area anyway.  He's going to have a tough road, but not as tough as some of the Reps. whose states are losing seats, or who really bucked the trend in 2010, but are in states that are going to be more static.  I just think that the extra seats and the new law will shake up Florida's districts more than maybe any other state, so I think he'll find a place to sit.

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by: cclub79 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 14:57:20 PM UTC

West

He is politically toxic. He doesn't hold back on what he says and is extremely polarizing. That is fine if you are Steve King or Michelle Bachmann and have a very safe district but his district is extremely gerrymandered and is a democratic leaning district. There is little to no way to make his district more Republican and he has being an underperformer written all over him anyway. If I was a GOP legislator in Florida I wouldn't try to save this guy.

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

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by: Cool_Arrow @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 15:52:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He

has a deep seeded hatred for Muslims too. Hell he doesn't even try to disguise it under some bullcrap defense like Peter King and Louie Gomert who want to hold hearings on the "Muslim threat." Probably explains why he was so willing to kill an Iraqi police officer back during his military days.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 16:22:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm starting to think that the method to the insanity

is that he can beat a sitting republican in another really red district in a primary.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 18:24:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kansas

You've got 3 freshmen and sophomore Lynn "Great White Hope" Jenkins and Kansas Republicans have to pull off what Utah Republicans do except with a less red state, though they don't have to defeat Dennis Moore/Jim Matheson.

Either Jenkins or Yoder is probably going to get hurt, at least a little--it's almost impossible without a major re-draw of the map. And despite his impressive win over Stephene Moore, I don't think Yoder will get a sophomore bounce. He's got some baggage that KS officeholders usually don't have, and don't even get me started on Lynn Jenkins.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 16:52:01 PM UTC

Lynn Jenkins

What's wrong with her from a neutral perspective?

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10

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by: TokenRepublican @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 18:02:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think she's safe in most years

The "great white hope" is a reference to a gaffe she made where she talked about he necessity of finding a charismatic Republican leader to counter Obama.  People made a big deal out of it only because of the potential racial implication, which I think was rather obviously overblown.  Clearly she didn't mean that the Republicans needed to find someone white, but rather was using the metaphorical sense in which that phrase is usually used.

She was considered to be the moderate choice in the 2008 primary, and her voting record is left of the middle of the Republican caucus, at least according to the progressive punch score, which ranked her 296th most "progressive", which would make her to the left of about 3/4rds of the caucus.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 18:53:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She's had more gaffes than that

She got caught letting insurance companies write her floor speeches, too, during the health care debate. It was in the NYT, which is a big deal because it's rare that a Kansan shows up there.

"People made a big deal out of it only because of the potential racial implication, which I think was rather obviously overblown." <--not just this. She's actually from the town (Holton, KS, pop. 2400) that the Great White Hope was from, and sponsored a bill recognizing the guy like a month before. So, clearly, she either did know the implications or she's a huge idiot who doesn't read anything that's put out in her name.

Also, she got divorced literally the day after she won her race in 2008, which irked a lot of people.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 19:06:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's assuming they don't tap into the 1st

The first is R+23. It can go down 15 points and still be safe. There's no way to do that without a gross gerrymander, but you can make some beneficial changes. I haven't played around with KS for a while, but I think you can do something along the lines of this:

KS-1 needs to expand, so give it Manhattan from 2. If you want to be more aggressive, have it wrap around and take the swingy Atchison/Leavenworth area out of KS-2 as well. Also pull the counties north and west of Wichita from KS-4. Pull out some of central KS to equalize population. I'd bet it's now about R+18, but that's as good as you can do if you don't want to do something really disgusting (like putting Lawrence or Wyandotte Co. in with Western KS)

KS-4 now needs more people, so expand it east into the Dem-leaning-by-Kansas-Standards Pittsburg area. Probably a little more Dem, but still around R+12.

KS-2 has now become a lot more Republican with the loss of its most liberal extremities (Leavenworth, Manhattan, Pittsburg). Give it KS-1's central KS portion as a boost and then have it take in the rest of Lawrence from KS-3. That's probably a gain of a point or two for a R+10 district.

Now KS-3 gets a lot of help, by simply pushing it out of Lawrence entirely. No other changes are really needed, but that's probably still enough to push it to the R+7 area at a minimum.

I'm actually of the opinion that you'd be hard-pressed to find a better Dem Gerrymander (or worse R dummymander) of KS than the one currently in existence. KS-1 and KS-4 are giant vote sinks, and the least Republican areas are parsed nicely so that 3 is a tossup district and 2 can elect a Dem under the right circumstances.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

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by: shamlet @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 18:22:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They will tap the 1st

As much as possible. Your plan doesn't equalize things as much as they might want (it doesn't up the R quotient as much as you might think--Manhattan actually leans Republican, believe it or not). Giving Jenkins Topeka & Lawrence will sink her--Topeka can swing up to 60-40 in favor of a Democrat (Boyda '06, and Sebelius won it by more than that that year), and Topeka has well over 150,000 residents. Add 100,000 super-liberal Lawrence residents and you've already got a tough district for Jenkins. Even if you get rid of Atchison & Leavenworth. (Atchison only gave a net 500 votes or so to Boyda and Leavenworth opted for Jenkins by more than that)

The really devious thing Republicans could do is split Topeka.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 19:13:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I know Riley leans R

just not as much as those super-red counties in the central and west. For the purposes of Kansas, I consider any county that went for McCain with less than 60% Dem-friendly. If you give Jenkins also 100-200K super-conservative (as in McCain 70+%)residents from the central part of the 1st around Salina, that should blunt the effect of Lawrence.

Though, there's always the possibility I alluded to before of Lawrence being put into the 1st. That would be a pretty good solution from a political perspective, but would result in a pretty hideous map.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)

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by: shamlet @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 20:39:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know anything

about these guys, but if they are extreme as some of the other House members, you have to wonder if their districts will be ripe for a solid challenge in the coming years. After all, Kansas may be a very Republican state, but it doesn't seem to be a very extreme state, so you have to wonder how many Nancy Boyda's there are waiting to emerge.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 18:24:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In this phase of the cycle, I would tell...

Still the redistricting process advance not enough for know what seats will chang or what seats will not. But I think the democratic party can follow some trends:

REPUBLICANS WHAT CAN RUN IN D+ OR EVEN:

Maryland: I would target strongly both republican incumbents since the local stablishment. I would work in both districts as if they will become safe democratic districts. That would add pressure for make a good and necessary 8-0 map in the redistricting process of Maryland.

MD-01 A Harris
MD-06 R Bartlet

Illinois: The same for Illinois. Since the local democratic statablisment every republican incumbent must be targeted and they must work like in a safe democratic seat (no matter the current rating of the district). Surely the strongest democratic challengers can be favored by the map makers. At this point every republican incumbent in Illinois would be in the same risk. For the list I take IL-19 as generic seat for dissapear and the remaining 10 as generic very endangered seats.

IL-19 J Shimkus (generic district what dissappear)
IL-15 T Johnson
IL-18 A Schock
IL-16 D Manzullo
IL-08 J Walsh
IL-11 A Kinzinger
IL-13 J Biggert
IL-14 R Hultgren
IL-06 P Roscam
IL-17 R Schilling
IL-10 R Dold

New Hampshire: The redistricting process will give not significative changes in the current districts, then both must be obvious targets as districts with favorable rating in republican hands.

NH-02 C Bass
NH-01 F Guinta

Arkansas: The democrats from Arkansas will control the redistricting process, and that give the chance to the democrats from Little Rock of find a strong challenge against T Griffin in a favorable district what can go to the black counties of the east or can go toward Washingto county. Like for Maryland and Illinois a previous strong challenge would make difficult to the map makers give not a positive answer.

AR-02 T Giffin

Colorado: The redistricting process can give some favorable results to the democrats. I think the redistricting commission can have some democratic leaning.

CO-03 S Tipton
CO-04 C Gardner ?

Looking for more.

About the states where the republicans have the control of the redistricting process, better work in silence because the republicans can apply some gerrymander against strong premature challenges.

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by: abgin @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 19:07:15 PM UTC

Targeting every Illinois Republican is a dummymander.

nt

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 20:10:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I mean not every republican will be gerrymandered or will lose but

but I think better target all than wait until see the map.

If strong challengers appear before, can be favored.

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by: abgin @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 21:51:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Shimkus's seat is super-red

Much as I dislike the man, breaking up his seat would result in a dummymander and could possibly eliminate Costello as well. It's best to leave it as is and focus on the other R congressman.

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by: geoneb @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 19:14:28 PM UTC

I think John Culberson of Texas 7

should be targeted. He is the ultimate Texas Backbencher and the state senator John Whitmire has 5 million dollars in his campaign account to take him on.  

TX-13,22,Dem

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by: buff2011 @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 19:37:07 PM UTC

How will his district

change, though? If there's one state legislature that seems likely to screw us in every way possible, it's that of Texas (or maybe North Carolina).

Regardless, I agree with your sentiment: there are a number of House members in Texas that deserve a good challenge. Pete Sessions' district was supposedly being looked at, at least before it became clear 2010 was not going to go well for the Democrats.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 21:14:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CA24 and CA26

CA24 because I dont see the new commission deliberately bleeding Democrats in Ventura County for CA23. I see CD23 being San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, absorbing the portions of CD24 in those counties, leaving a CD23 which will be lean or likely D, rather than super safe D.  Any district starting from the city of Santa Barbara should at the very least lean D. Since those two counties together make up almost a complete district, on the mid-coast of Ca, it seems an obvious base for a CD.

CD24 could become a tossup or lean district, or even likely D, depending on the exact lines it retains in Ventura county. The exact lines it retains within Ventura County is the critical factor.

CA26 is an obvious gerrymander, combining the most R portions of the peripheral northern San Gabriel Valley with  portions of San Bernardino County.  
I see CD26 going further south  into the eastern San Gabriel Valley, losing the more western enclaves it has in the San Fernando Valley.

Joe Cooper

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by: Joe Cooper @ Tue Jan 25, 2011 at 23:03:38 PM UTC

CA-24

Even if it kept Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks and lost a part of western Ventura County, it would still lean D, I think. Ventura is maybe around 120,000 people over a CD. Even if those 120,000 are mostly Democrats, I don't see the district being any worse than maybe 53-45 Obama or so, which is still an improvement over what we have now. After 2012 I wouldn't be surprised if the district had a D+ PVI, although before 2012 I'm imagining it'd end up around R+1 or 2, which is better than the current R+4.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 01:41:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Indiana..

If Obama contests Indiana as seriously as he did in 2008, then IN-8 and IN-9 should be obvious targets. Not sure what's going to come out of redistricting, the new Republican trifecta may give Bucshon the boot by combining Bloomington with Evansville.

Being a fomer IU College Democrat, I can tell you Bloomington won't allow itself to have a Republican congressman for long.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

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by: HoosierD42 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 07:12:30 AM UTC

There's been some speculation

in recent weeks that they just wouldn't contest the state in 2012 despite the gains made in 2008. I could understand where the White House is coming from, but at the same time, it seems way too early to throw away what they accomplished, particularly since there's a small chance Lugar won't be the nominee.

To that end, while Obama will be in Wisconsin today, Biden will be in Indiana. There's always a chance this means little in the grand scheme of things, but why Indiana, as opposed to Michigan, Minnesota, or Ohio?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

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by: b.j. @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 16:04:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I certainly hope your right.

The last 5 years I've been here have been good. The last few months not so much.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 17:41:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think they would have to slice up Bloomington somewhat if they move it into the Eighth

Given that Todd Young lives there. Sure, he can move; but he may not want to.

An IN-8 that includes Bloomington, Evansville, and Vigo County would be a great pickup opportunity, but at the expense of taking IN-9 completely off the board.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

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by: Bob Bobson @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 21:22:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I believe Todd Young lives on the more populous east side.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

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by: ndrwmls10 @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 23:18:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MD-1

Harris has to be one of the most endangered GOPers.

I'm hopeful the state legislature won't destroy the 1st district for partisan gain, having gone to college on the Eastern Shore (and done some media buyinig for Wayne Gilchrest) I think it's important to have the shore and bay area represented in congress (Maybe they'll just link Hartford County to the 6th, cutting Harris off at the knees without taking apart the traditional 1st district lines).


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke

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by: notpjorourke @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 16:36:36 PM UTC

My conjecture is that

they'll custom-tailor a seat for Kratovil by cutting off Harris' suburban base, keep the East Shore intact, and take in some Dem-leaning mainland areas.  That would end with a district roughly even and one that Kratovil can easily win.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

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by: LookingOver @ Wed Jan 26, 2011 at 16:50:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

cause when the Republicans have control of districts

they NEVER split up communities of interest for partisan gain...isn't that right, Columbus?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 02:45:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]